SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Parameter estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

Automatic Generation of Chemical Mechanisms for Electrochemical Systems: Solid Electrolyte Interphase Formation in Lithium Batteries

Electrolytes in many lithium ion batteries decompose at the low potentials near the anode. The decomposition products form a layer termed the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI). The composition and growth of the SEI layer significantly affect both the capacity fade and safety of lithium ion batteries. However, SEI formation and growth kinetics are not well understood. In this work, we present an extension of the Reaction Mechanism Generator (RMG) software to automatically generate mechanisms for SEI formation. We extend RMG’s solvation correction framework to account for kinetic solvent effects and demonstrate the accuracy of our technique. We calculate thermochemical parameters for 252 species and rate coefficients for 69 reactions, most with associated solvation corrections. This and additional quantum chemistry data are used to extend RMG’s thermodynamic group additivity and solute parameter estimation schemes to handle lithiated species and add 14 new reaction families to RMG. RMG is additionally extended to simulate electrocatalytic systems. Lastly, we demonstrate RMG on the decomposition of acetonitrile and ethylene carbonate near a battery anode. Furthermore, while this framework does not yet resolve individual ions, as appropriate thermochemistry estimators are not available, and thus, cannot yet resolve more complex electrochemical pathways, RMG is able to generate reasonable pathways for SEI formation that match literature pathways and products. In particular, RMG identifies a new important reaction pathway that is not present in literature.

Chemical reactions↗

DOE OSTI2026

Mechanistic Insights for Plasma-Catalytic CO 2 Reduction over TiO 2 in a Dielectric Barrier Discharge Reactor

Reaction kinetics experiments coupled with phenomenological kinetic modeling and parameter estimation are used to elicit insights into the mechanism and active sites for the plasma-catalytic dissociation of CO 2 on TiO 2 . Experimental and model insights showed that gas-phase reactions contribute at least two-thirds of the overall product formation at explored conditions; weak temperature dependence, strong sensitivity to specific energy input (SEI), apparent first order in CO 2 , and positive influence of cofed argon (Ar) and oxygen (O 2 ) for the gas-phase contributions all suggest that expected plasma reaction steps such as electron-impact and high-energy collisions are the dominant modes for CO 2 dissociation. The Arrhenius-like expression for gas contributions resulted in a preexponential of 4.40 × 10 –3 s –1 , an E SEI,g of 7.90 × 10 –4 mol/kJ, and an E a,g of 1.00 × 10 –3 J/mol. For surface contributions, the small apparent barrier of 16.3 kJ/mol, relatively weaker dependence on SEI, first-order dependence on CO 2 , and insensitivity to cofed Ar and O 2 all point to CO 2 dissociation on TiO 2 surface facets without vacancies and aided by plasma (leading to vibrationally excited CO 2 and/or a reactive surface with significant surface charge accumulation). The Arrhenius-like expression resulted in a preexponential of 7.81 × 10 –2 s –1 , an E SEI,s of 1.90 × 10 –3 mol/kJ, and an E a,s of 1.63 × 10 4 J/mol. The derived kinetic model further enabled a systematic evaluation of the effect of inputs (plasma power, flow rate, CO 2 inlet concentration, and temperature) to identify process trends and optimal operating conditions.

catalyst↗

DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty-Aware Machine Learning for Small-Angle X-ray Scattering Analysis in Autonomous Experimentation

Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) is a powerful high-throughput characterization tool for probing nanoscale structure in native sample environments, providing real-time morphological information such as nanoparticle size and shape during synthesis. However, automated SAXS data analysis for extracting meaningful structural parameters is non-trivial and remains a bottleneck in closed-loop experimentation towards autonomous materials discovery, which demands fast, reliable, and uncertainty-aware data analysis. Here, we develop a machine-learning approach for automated SAXS analysis tailored to closed-loop nanoparticle synthesis. A Random Forest (RF) regression model is trained on 100,000 synthetic SAXS curves generated from polydisperse spherical nanoparticles with realistic background contributions. Using normalized one-dimensional SAXS intensity profiles as input, the RF model directly predicts nanoparticle radius, size polydispersity, and background parameters, while the ensemble standard deviation across trees provides built-in uncertainty quantification (UQ). On synthetic data, we show that combining fit-quality metrics (R 2 , MAE) with thresholds on prediction uncertainty reliably identifies accurate parameter estimates without access to ground truth. We then apply the trained model to 365 experimental SAXS profiles of citrate-reduced gold nanoparticles synthesized using an automated droplet-flow microreactor with in situ SAXS at a synchrotron beamline, classifying the results into high- and low-confidence subsets based on UQ metrics. Finally, we integrate RF-based SAXS analysis into a simulated closed-loop optimization campaign using Gaussian process Bayesian optimization to minimize nanoparticle polydispersity, benchmarking against conventional automated Levenberg–Marquardt fitting. The RF-guided campaign exhibits substantially faster convergence and lower relative opportunity cost (∼0.07 vs ∼0.3), demonstrating that uncertainty-aware machine-learning SAXS analysis significantly enhances the efficiency and robustness of autonomous nanomaterials synthesis workflows.

Bayesian optimization↗

DOE OSTI2024

Observation and Numerical Simulation of Cold Ions Energized by EMIC Waves

This is the first report of significant energization (up to 7,000 eV) of low-energy He + ions, which occurred simultaneously with H-band electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave activity, in a direction mostly perpendicular to the ambient magnetic field. The event was detected by the Arase satellite in the dayside plasmatrough region off the magnetic equator on 15 May 2019. The peak energy of the He + flux enhancements is mostly above 1,000 eV. At some interval, the He + ions are energized up to ~7,000 eV. The H-band waves are excited in a frequency band between the local crossover and helium gyrofrequencies and are close to a linear polarization state with weakly left-handed or right-handed polarization. The normal angle of the waves exhibits significant variation between 0° and 80°, indicating a non-parallel propagation. Here, we run a hybrid code with parameters estimated from the Arase observations to examine the He + energization. The simulations show that cold He + ions are energized up to more than 1,000 eV, similar to the spacecraft observations. From the analysis of the simulated wave fields and cold plasma motions, we found that the ratio of the wave frequency to He + gyrofrequency is a primary factor for transverse energization of cold He + ions. As a consequence of the numerical analysis, we suggest that the significant transverse energization of He + ions observed by Arase is attributed to H-band EMIC waves excited near the local helium gyrofrequency.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Machine Learning Framework for Predicting Microphysical Properties of Ice Crystals From Cloud Particle Imagery

The microphysical properties of ice crystals are important because they significantly alter the radiative properties and spatiotemporal distributions of clouds, which in turn strongly affect Earth's climate. However, it is challenging to measure key properties of ice crystals, such as mass or morphological features. Here, we present a proof-of-concept framework for predicting three-dimensional (3D) microphysical properties of ice crystals from in situ two-dimensional (2D) imagery. First, we computationally generated synthetic ice crystals using 3D modeling software along with geometric parameters estimated from the 2021 Ice Cryo-Encapsulation Balloon (ICEBall) field campaign. Then, we used synthetic crystals to train machine learning (ML) models to predict effective density ($ρ_e$), effective surface area ($A_e$), and number of bullets ($N_b$) from synthetic rosette imagery. On unseen synthetic images, our ML models accurately predicted ice crystal properties. ResNet-18 performed best, achieving $R^2$ values of 0.99 and 0.98 for $ρ_e$ and $A_e$, respectively, and MAE of 0.10 for mathematical equation in single view tasks. Stereo view ResNet-18 further reduced RMSE by 40% for $ρ_e$ and $A_e$ and reduced MAE by 0.08 for $N_b$. This work provides a novel ML-driven framework for estimating ice microphysical properties from in situ imagery, which will allow for downstream constraints on microphysical parameterizations, such as the mass-size relationship.

Ko, J. [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United State↗

DOE OSTI2024

The cluster decomposition of the configurational energy of multicomponent alloys

Abstract The cluster expansion method (CEM) is a widely used lattice-based technique in the study of multicomponent alloys. Despite its prevalent use, a clear understanding of expansion terms is lacking. We present a modern mathematical formalism of the CEM and introduce thecluster decomposition—a unique and basis-independent decomposition for functions of the atomic configuration in a crystal. We identify the cluster decomposition as an invariant ANOVA decomposition; and demonstrate how functional analysis of variance and sensitivity analysis can be used to interpret interactions among species. Furthermore, we show how the mathematical structure of the cluster decomposition enables numerical evaluation that scales with the number of clusters and is independent of the number of species. Overall, our work enables rigorous interpretations of interactions among species, provides opportunities to explore parameter estimation beyond linear regression, introduces a numerical efficient implementation, and enables analysis of cluster expansions based on established mathematical and statistical principles.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2024

Connected Traffic Signal Coordination Optimization Framework through Network-Wide Adaptive Linear Quadratic Regulator–Based Control Strategy

Traffic congestion in metropolitan areas causes several significant challenges, such as longer travel times, decreased productivity, increased fuel consumption and vehicle emissions, and even severe injuries during crashes. Traffic signal control is a management approach to reduce traffic congestion and allocate the appropriate right of way for safety and mobility efficiency, both in temporal and spatial domains. Here, this study proposes a network-wide adaptive signal control coordination optimization framework based on the linear quadratic regulator algorithm. The traffic flow conditions driven by signal control inputs are formulated based on their network-wide state-space representation. After modeling traffic control regulation constraints, an adaptive linear quadratic regulator algorithm is designed to maximize the network-wide total throughput under the current conditions. Optimal signal control split time durations for multiple intersections in the network are derived by solving the algebraic Riccati equation. Furthermore, the recursive least square parameter estimation method is employed to quantify dynamic traffic condition changes. To verify the effectiveness of this proposed signal control framework, both simulation and real-world experimental tests are conducted for multiple intersections in downtown Chattanooga, Tennessee, United States. In preparation for real-world experimental tests, pipelines for real-time data processing implementation and historical traffic flow data analysis are conducted. The test results demonstrate that the proposed control framework achieves a decrease in travel time by up to 19.4%, total time spent (TTS) by up to 11.9%, and relative queue balance (RQB) by up to 15.6%. The research findings indicate that the proposed signal control framework can be generalized to handle large scale signal control optimization network-wide.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Inverse model based error detection in beamline optics

Optics tuning in transfer lines and LINACs can be challenging due to the fact that multiple combinations of machine settings can lead to the same diagnostic output. Moreover, the lack of a periodic solution can limit the ability to infer optics in the same way as rings from BPM signals. Model based approaches are often used to assist with the optics tuning in combination with optimization or parameter estimation. Here we have developed a novel approach using machine learning inverse models trained on a known configuration to detect variations in quadrupole settings without explicitly including them in the model. This paper shows a comparison of neural network models and linear models on both a simulation based study and experimental studies conducted at the AGS to RHIC transfer line at Brookhaven National Lab.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

An atomic cluster expansion potential for twisted multilayer graphene

Twisted multilayer graphene, characterized by its moiré patterns arising from inter-layer rotational misalignment, serves as a rich platform for exploring quantum phenomena. Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) are a promising approach to model such systems. Our work develops a method to generate training and test datasets for fitting MLIPs that capture all possible misalignments but remain small-scale to facilitate efficient data generation and parameter estimation. To achieve this, we generate configurations with periodic boundary conditions suitable for density functional theory calculations, and then introduce an internal twist and shift within those supercell structures. Using this technique, supplemented with an active learning workflow, we fit an Atomic Cluster Expansion potential for simulating twisted multilayer graphene and test it for accuracy and robustness on a range of simulation tasks.

2D materials↗

DOE OSTI2025

LATTE: open-source, high-performance traveltime computation, tomography and source location in acoustic and elastic media

Traveltime-based tomography and source location are fundamental approaches for imaging subsurface structures and understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of seismicity from local to global scales. We present an open-source, high-performance framework integrating eikonal equation solvers and adjoint-state theory for traveltime computation, velocity tomography, source location and joint tomography-location in 2-D/3-D acoustic and elastic media. We introduce novel regularization schemes based on total generalized p-variation, structural similarity and multitask machine learning to enhance the fidelity and interpretability of inverted models and source locations. Key features of our implementation also include the ability to leverage both absolute-difference and double-difference traveltime misfits for high-fidelity velocity tomography and source parameter estimation; support for traveltime computation and inversion in diverse 2-D/3-D scenarios with arbitrary source and receiver distributions; and a perturbation-based optimal step-size estimation method to reduce computational costs. In addition, our implementation employs shared-memory and distributed-memory parallelization to provide an efficient solution for traveltime computation, tomography, and source location. In conclusion, we validate the efficacy and accuracy of our approach through multiple synthetic data examples.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spectral study of star-forming rings in S0 galaxies of Dorado group – NGC 1533 and NGC 1543

ABSTRACT We have fulfilled a detailed long-slit spectroscopic analysis for two SB0 galaxies – NGC 1533 and NGC 1543, – belonging to the Dorado group. Our spectral data reveal asymmetric decoupled kinematics of the stars and ionized gas in these barred lenticular galaxies that give evidences for external origin of the gas in the rings. We have calculated the star formation rates in the rings by using the ultraviolet fluxes of the rings corrected for the foreground and intrinsic absorption; and we have estimated parameters of the stellar populations in the inner parts of the galaxies confirming that they are old – except the nucleus of NGC 1543, which demonstrates signatures of rejuvenation less than 5 Gyr ago.

Proshina, Irina S.↗

DOE OSTI2025

First measurement of symmetric cumulants of hexagonal flow harmonics in Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV

Correlations between event-by-event fluctuations of anisotropic flow harmonics are measured in Pb-Pb collisions at a center-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of 5.02 TeV, as recorded by the ALICE detector at the LHC. This study presents correlations up to the hexagonal flow harmonic 𝑣 6 , which was measured for the first time. The magnitudes of these higher-order correlations are found to vary as a function of collision centrality and harmonic order. These measurements are compared to viscous hydrodynamic model calculations with EKRT initial conditions and to the iEBE-VISHNU model with T R ⁢ENTo initial conditions. The observed discrepancies between the data and the model calculations vary depending on the harmonic combinations. Due to the sensitivity of model parameters estimated with Bayesian analyses to these higher-order observables, the results presented in this work provide new and independent constraints on the initial conditions and transport properties in theoretical models used to describe the system created in heavy-ion collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Constraints on Large-Scale White Noise in the Cosmic Density Field

We present observational constraints on large-scale white noise (LSWN) in the cosmic density field, a phenomenon predicted to arise from non-linear mode coupling during cosmological evolution. Building on the theoretical framework of Paper I, where we demonstrated that non-linearities inevitably redistribute power from small to large scales through mode mixing, we confront these predictions with current cosmological data. We modify the CLASS Boltzmann code to incorporate a white noise component $k_\mathrm{BH}/k$ in the primordial power spectrum and perform parameter estimation using current cosmological data. The non-detection of excess power on the largest observable scales places stringent upper bounds: $k_\mathrm{BH} \leq 1.80 \times 10^{-13}~\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$ at 99% confidence. These constraints imply the primordial power spectrum must deviate from perfect scale invariance on small scales, either through a cutoff at $k_{\mathrm{cut}} \lesssim 3~\mathrm{pc}^{-1}$ or through running of the spectral index with $α_s \lesssim -0.015$. Our results demonstrate that LSWN provides a powerful probe of the primordial spectrum at scales orders of magnitude smaller than directly observable, offering unique constraints on early-universe physics.

Barenboim, Gabriela [Valencia U., IFIC; Valencia U↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effect of causality constraints on Bayesian analyses of heavy-ion collisions

There have long been questions about the limits to the validity of relativistic fluid dynamics and whether it is being used outside its regime of validity in modern simulations of relativistic heavy-ion collisions. An important new tool for answering this question is a causality analysis in the nonlinear regime—if the solutions of the evolution equations do not respect relativistic causality, then they are not a faithful representation of the underlying relativistic theory (in this case, quantum chromodynamics). Using this nonlinear criterion, it has recently been shown that hydrodynamics is indeed being used outside its regime of validity in simulations, at least sometimes. Here we explore the phenomenological implications, particularly the quantitative effects of demanding limits on acausality in modern Bayesian parameter estimation. We find that, while typically only a small fraction of the system's energy is initially in an acausal regime, placing strict limits on the allowed energy fraction significantly changes the preferred properties of the initial condition, which in turn alters the extracted medium properties such as bulk viscosity, where large values are no longer favored. Furthermore, these findings highlight the importance of developing better theoretical descriptions of the early-time, out-of-equilibrium dynamics of relativistic heavy-ion collisions.

Bayesian methods↗

DOE OSTI2024

Detectability of QCD phase transitions in binary neutron star mergers: Bayesian inference with the next generation gravitational wave detectors

We study the detectability of postmerger QCD phase transitions in neutron star binaries with next-generation gravitational-wave detectors Cosmic Explorer and Einstein Telescope. We perform numerical relativity simulations of neutron star mergers with equations of state that include a quark deconfinement phase transition through either a Gibbs or Maxwell construction. These are followed by Bayesian parameter estimation of the associated gravitational-wave signals using the nrpmw waveform model, with priors inferred from the analysis of the inspiral signal. We assess the ability of the model to measure the postmerger peak frequency $f$$^{peak}_{2}$ and identify aspects that should be improved in the model. We show that, even at postmerger signal to noise ratios as low as 10, the model can distinguish (at the 90% level) $f$$^{peak}_{2}$ between binaries with and without a phase transition in most cases. Phase-transition induced deviations in the $f$$^{peak}_{2}$ from the predictions of equation-of-state insensitive relations can also be detected if they exceed 1.6⁢σ. Our results suggest that next-generation gravitational wave detectors can measure phase transition effects in binary neutron star mergers. Furthermore, unless the phase transition is “strong,” disentangling it from other hadronic physics uncertainties will require significant theory improvements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Probing electromagnetic nonreciprocity with quantum geometry of photonic states

Reciprocal and nonreciprocal effects in dielectric and magnetic materials provide crucial information about the microscopic properties of electrons. However, experimentally distinguishing the two has proven to be challenging, especially when the associated effects are extremely small. To this end, we propose a contactless detection using a cross-cavity device where a material of interest is placed at its center. We show that the optical properties of the material, such as Kerr and Faraday rotation, or birefringence, manifest in the coupling between the cavity's electromagnetic modes and in the shift of their resonant frequencies. By calculating the dynamics of a geometrical photonic state, we formulate a measurement protocol based on the quantum metric and quantum process tomography that isolates the individual components of the material's complex refractive index and minimizes the quantum mechanical Cramér-Rao bound on the variance of the associated parameter estimation. Our approach is expected to be applicable across a broad spectrum of experimental platforms including Fock states in optical cavities, or coherent states in microwave and THz resonators. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Petrides, Ioannis (ORCID:0000000174842444)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Generalized Cycle Benchmarking Algorithm for Characterizing Midcircuit Measurements

Midcircuit measurements (MCMs) are crucial ingredients in the development of fault-tolerant quantum computation. While there have been rapid experimental progresses in realizing MCMs, a systematic method for characterizing noisy MCMs is still under exploration. In this work, we develop a cycle benchmarking (CB)-type algorithm to characterize noisy MCMs. The key idea is to use a joint Fourier transform on the classical and quantum registers and then estimate parameters in the Fourier space, analogous to Pauli fidelities used in CB-type algorithms for characterizing the Pauli-noise channel of Clifford gates. Furthermore, we develop a theory of the noise learnability of MCMs, which determines what information can be learned about the noise model (in the presence of state preparation and terminating measurement noise) and what cannot, which shows that all learnable information can be learned using our algorithm. As an application, we show how to use the learned information to test the independence between measurement noise and state-preparation noise in an MCM. Finally, we conduct numerical simulations to illustrate the practical applicability of the algorithm. Similar to other CB-type algorithms, we expect the algorithm to provide a useful toolkit that is of experimental interest. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Zhang, Zhihan (ORCID:0009000862907691)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Greybox Thermal Parameter Identification of Electric Machine Stators

The parameters of electric machine thermal equivalent circuit networks are difficult to predict due to material and manufacturing uncertainties. In this paper, a Greybox system identification approach is used to identify parameters of electric machine stator lumped parameter thermal networks (LPTNs). LPTNs provide a low order, computationally efficient, dynamic model of temperatures at specific locations. Second and third order LPTN model structures are defined as state space equations with stator thermal parameters to be identified. To test the Greybox electric machine stator thermal system identification, five stator motorette prototypes were constructed with controlled variations in slot fill and slot liner thickness. The variation in the motorette thermal parameters and thermal time constants are detected using the Greybox identification. Special attention is given to the impact of sampling rate and Greybox data record length on parameter estimation accuracy.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗