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At least 109 records · Page 6

Zero-truncated Poisson regression for sparse multiway count data corrupted by false zeros

Abstract We propose a novel statistical inference methodology for multiway count data that is corrupted by false zeros that are indistinguishable from true zero counts. Our approach consists of zero-truncating the Poisson distribution to neglect all zero values. This simple truncated approach dispenses with the need to distinguish between true and false zero counts and reduces the amount of data to be processed. Inference is accomplished via tensor completion that imposes low-rank tensor structure on the Poisson parameter space. Our main result shows that an $N$-way rank-$R$ parametric tensor $\boldsymbol{\mathscr{M}}\in (0,\infty )^{I\times \cdots \times I}$ generating Poisson observations can be accurately estimated by zero-truncated Poisson regression from approximately $IR^2\log _2^2(I)$ non-zero counts under the nonnegative canonical polyadic decomposition. Our result also quantifies the error made by zero-truncating the Poisson distribution when the parameter is uniformly bounded from below. Therefore, under a low-rank multiparameter model, we propose an implementable approach guaranteed to achieve accurate regression in under-determined scenarios with substantial corruption by false zeros. Several numerical experiments are presented to explore the theoretical results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Surface characterizations of color threshold

The paper evaluates how well three different parametric shapes, ellipsoids, rectangles, and parallelograms, serve as models of three-dimentional detection contours. The constraints of the procedures for deriving the best-fitting shapes on inferences about the theoretical visual detection mechanisms are described. Results of two statistical tests show that only the parallelogram fits the data with more precision than the variance in repeated threshold measurements, and thus provides a slightly better fit than the other two shapes. Nevertheless it does not serve as a better guide than the ellipsoidal model for interpolating from the measurements to thresholds in novel color directions.

Poirson, Allen B.↗

Growing extra dimensions in AdS/CFT

What is the dimension of spacetime? We address this question in the context of the AdS/CFT Correspondence. We give a prescription for computing the number of large bulk dimensions, D, from strongly-coupled CFT d data, where “large” means parametrically of order the AdS scale. The idea is that unitarity of 1-loop AdS amplitudes, dual to non-planar CFT correlators, fixes D in terms of tree-level data. We make this observation rigorous by deriving a positive-definite sum rule for the 1-loop double-discontinuity in the flat space/bulk-point limit. This enables us to prove an array of AdS/CFT folklore, and to infer new properties of large N CFTs at strong coupling that ensure consistency of emergent large extra dimensions with string/M-theory. We discover an OPE universality at the string scale: to leading order in large N, heavy-heavy-light three-point functions, with heavy operators that are parametrically lighter than a power of N, are linear in the heavy conformal dimension. We explore its consequences for supersymmetric CFTs and explain how emergent large extra dimensions relate to a Sublattice Weak Gravity Conjecture for CFTs. Lastly, we conjecture, building on a claim of [1], that any CFT with large higher-spin gap and no global symmetries has a holographic hierarchy: D = d + 1.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Bayesian Inference of High-density Nuclear Symmetry Energy from Radii of Canonical Neutron Stars

The radius R 1.4 of neutron stars (NSs) with a mass of 1.4 M ⊙ has been extracted consistently in many recent studies in the literature. Using representative R 1.4 data, we infer high-density nuclear symmetry energy E sym (ρ) and the associated nucleon specific energy E 0 (ρ) in symmetric nuclear matter (SNM) within a Bayesian statistical approach using an explicitly isospin-dependent parametric equation of state (EOS) for nucleonic matter. We found the following. (1) The available astrophysical data can already significantly improve our current knowledge about the EOS in the density range of ρ 0 - 2.5ρ 0 . In particular, the symmetry energy at twice the saturation density ρ 0 of nuclear matter is determined to be E sym (2ρ 0 )=${39.2}_{-8.2}^{+12.1}$ MeV at a 68% confidence level. (2) A precise measurement of R 1.4 alone with a 4% 1σ statistical error but no systematic error will not greatly improve the constraints on the EOS of dense neutron-rich nucleonic matter compared to what we extracted from using the available radius data. (3) The R 1.4 radius data and other general conditions, such as the observed NS maximum mass and causality condition, introduce strong correlations for the high-order EOS parameters. Consequently, the high-density behavior of E sym (ρ) inferred depends strongly on how the high-density SNM EOS E 0 (ρ) is parameterized, and vice versa. (4) Finally, the value of the observed maximum NS mass and whether it is used as a sharp cutoff for the minimum maximum mass or through a Gaussian distribution significantly affects the lower boundaries of both E 0 (ρ) and E sym (ρ) only at densities higher than about 2.5ρ 0 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

GREAT3 results - I. Systematic errors in shear estimation and the impact of real galaxy morphology

The study present first results from the third GRavitational lEnsing Accuracy Testing (GREAT3) challenge, the third in a sequence of challenges for testing methods of inferring weak gravitational lensing shear distortions from simulated galaxy images. GREAT3 was divided into experiments to test three specific questions, and included simulated space- and ground-based data with constant or cosmologically varying shear fields. The simplest (control) experiment included parametric galaxies with a realistic distribution of signal-to-noise, size, and ellipticity, and a complex point spread function (PSF). The other experiments tested the additional impact of realistic galaxy morphology, multiple exposure imaging, and the uncertainty about a spatially varying PSF; the last two questions will be explored in Paper II. The 24 participating teams competed to estimate lensing shears to within systematic error tolerances for upcoming Stage-IV dark energy surveys, making 1525 submissions overall. GREAT3 saw considerable variety and innovation in the types of methods applied. Several teams now meet or exceed the targets in many of the tests conducted (to within the statistical errors). We conclude that the presence of realistic galaxy morphology in simulations changes shear calibration biases by ~1 per cent for a wide range of methods. Other effects such as truncation biases due to finite galaxy postage stamps, and the impact of galaxy type as measured by the Sérsic index, are quantified for the first time. Our results generalize previous studies regarding sensitivities to galaxy size and signal-to-noise, and to PSF properties such as seeing and defocus. Almost all methods’ results support the simple model in which additive shear biases depend linearly on PSF ellipticity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Zero-Truncated Poisson Tensor Decomposition for Sparse Count Data

We propose a novel statistical inference paradigm for zero-inflated multiway count data that dispenses with the need to distinguish between true and false zero counts. Our approach ignores all zero entries and applies zero-truncated Poisson regression on the positive counts. Inference is accomplished via tensor completion that imposes low-rank structure on the Poisson parameter space. Our main result shows that an $\textit{N}$-way rank-R parametric tensor 𝓜 ϵ (0, ∞) $I$Χ∙∙∙Χ$I$ generating Poisson observations can be accurately estimated from approximately $IR^2 \text{log}^2_2(I)$ non-zero counts for a nonnegative canonical polyadic decomposition. Several numerical experiments are presented demonstrating that our zero-truncated paradigm is comparable to the ideal scenario where the locations of false zero counts are known $\textit{a priori}$.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Neglecting Model Parametric Uncertainty Can Drastically Underestimate Flood Risks

Abstract Floods drive dynamic and deeply uncertain risks for people and infrastructures. Uncertainty characterization is a crucial step in improving the predictive understanding of multi‐sector dynamics and the design of risk‐management strategies. Current approaches to estimate flood hazards often sample only a relatively small subset of the known unknowns, for example, the uncertainties surrounding the model parameters. This approach neglects the impacts of key uncertainties on hazards and system dynamics. Here we mainstream a recently developed method for Bayesian inference to calibrate a computationally expensive distributed hydrologic model. We compare three different calibration approaches: (a) stepwise line search, (b) precalibration or screening, and (c) the Fast Model Calibrations (FaMoS) approach. FaMoS deploys a particle‐based approach that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high‐performance computing systems. We quantify how neglecting parametric uncertainty and data discrepancy can drastically underestimate extreme flood events and risks. Precalibration improves prediction skill score over a stepwise line search. The Bayesian calibration improves the uncertainty characterization of model parameters and flood risk projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Parameter Estimation with Entangled Photons Produced by Parametric Down-Conversion

We explore the advantages offered by twin light beams produced in parametric down-conversion for precision measurement. The symmetry of these bipartite quantum states, even under losses, suggests that monitoring correlations between the divergent beams permits a high-precision inference of any symmetry-breaking effect, e.g., fiber birefringence. We show that the quantity of entanglement is not the key feature for such an instrument. In a lossless setting, scaling of precision at the ultimate "Heisenberg" limit is possible with photon counting alone. Even as photon losses approach 100% the precision is shot-noise limited, and we identify the crossover point between quantum and classical precision as a function of detected flux. The predicted hypersensitivity is demonstrated with a Bayesian simulation.

Cable, Hugo↗

A parametric model for self-interacting dark matter halos

Abstract We propose a parametric model for studying self-interacting dark matter (SIDM) halos. The model uses an analytical density profile, calibrated using a controlled N-body SIDM simulation that covers the entire gravothermal evolution, including core-forming and -collapsing phases. By normalizing the calibrated density profile, we obtain a universal description for SIDM halos at any evolution phase. The model allows us to infer properties of SIDM halos based on their cold dark matter (CDM) counterparts. As a basic application, we only require two characteristic parameters of an isolated CDM halo atz = 0. We then extend the model to incorporate effects induced by halo mass changes, such as major mergers or tidal stripping, making it applicable to both isolated halos and subhalos. The parametric model is tested and validated using cosmological zoom-in SIDM simulations available in the literature.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Optimizing Kernel Machines Using Deep Learning

Building highly non-linear and non-parametric models is central to several state-of-the-art machine learning systems. Kernel methods form an important class of techniques that induce a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) for inferring non-linear models through the construction of similarity functions from data. These methods are particularly preferred in cases where the training data sizes are limited and when prior knowledge of the data similarities is available. Despite their usefulness, they are limited by the computational complexity and their inability to support end-to-end learning with a task specific objective. On the other hand, deep neural networks have become the de facto solution for end-to-end inference in several learning paradigms. In this article, we explore the idea of using deep architectures to perform kernel machine optimization, for both computational efficiency and end-to-end inferencing. To this end, we develop the DKMO (Deep Kernel Machine Optimization) framework, that creates an ensemble of dense embeddings using Nystrõm kernel approximations and utilizes deep learning to generate task-specific representations through the fusion of the embeddings. Intuitively, the filters of the network are trained to fuse information from an ensemble of linear subspaces in the RKHS. Furthermore, we introduce the kernel dropout regularization to enable improved training convergence. Finally, we extend this framework to the multiple kernel case, by coupling a global fusion layer with pre-trained deep kernel machines for each of the constituent kernels. Using case studies with limited training data, and lack of explicit feature sources, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework over conventional model inferencing techniques.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Estimating rates and patterns of diversification with incomplete sampling: a case study in the rosids

Premise Recent advances in generating large‐scale phylogenies enable broad‐scale estimation of species diversification. These now common approaches typically are characterized by (1) incomplete species coverage without explicit sampling methodologies and/or (2) sparse backbone representation, and usually rely on presumed phylogenetic placements to account for species without molecular data. We used empirical examples to examine the effects of incomplete sampling on diversification estimation and provide constructive suggestions to ecologists and evolutionary biologists based on those results. Methods We used a supermatrix for rosids and one well‐sampled subclade (Cucurbitaceae) as empirical case studies. We compared results using these large phylogenies with those based on a previously inferred, smaller supermatrix and on a synthetic tree resource with complete taxonomic coverage. Finally, we simulated random and representative taxon sampling and explored the impact of sampling on three commonly used methods, both parametric (RPANDA and BAMM) and semiparametric (DR). Results We found that the impact of sampling on diversification estimates was idiosyncratic and often strong. Compared to full empirical sampling, representative and random sampling schemes either depressed or inflated speciation rates, depending on methods and sampling schemes. No method was entirely robust to poor sampling, but BAMM was least sensitive to moderate levels of missing taxa. Conclusions We suggest caution against uncritical modeling of missing taxa using taxonomic data for poorly sampled trees and in the use of summary backbone trees and other data sets with high representative bias, and we stress the importance of explicit sampling methodologies in macroevolutionary studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Analytical and experimental investigation of mistuning in propfan flutter

An analytical and experimental investigation of the effects of mistuning on propfan subsonic flutter was performed. The analytical model is based on the normal modes of a rotating composite blade and a three-dimensinal subsonic unsteady lifting surface aerodynamic theory. Theoretical and experimental results are compared for selected cases at different blade pitch angles, rotational speeds, and free-stream Mach numbers. The comparison shows a reasonably good agreement between theory and experiment. Both theory and experiment showed that combined mode shape, frequency, and aerodynamic mistuning can have a beneficial or adverse effect on blade damping depending on Mach number. Additional parametric results showed that alternative blade frequency mistuning does not have enough potential for it to be used as a passive flutter control in propfans similar to the one studied. It can be inferred from the results that a laminated composite propfan blade can be tailored to optimize its flutter speed by selecting the proper ply angles.

Kaza, Krishna Rao V.↗

Analytical and experimental investigation of mistuning in propfan flutter

An analytical and experimental investigation of the effects of mistuning on propfan subsonic flutter was performed. The analytical model is based on the normal modes of a rotating composite blade and a three-dimensional subsonic unsteady lifting surface aerodynamic theory. Theoretical and experimental results are compared for selected cases at different blade pitch angles, rotational speeds, and free-stream Mach numbers. The comparison shows a reasonably good agreement between theory and experiment. Both theory and experiment showed that combined mode shape, frequency, and aerodynamic mistuning can have a beneficial or adverse effect on blade damping depending on Mach number. Additional parametric results showed that alternative blade frequency mistuning does not have enough potential for it to be used as a passive flutter control in propfans similar to the one studied. It can be inferred from the results that a laminated composite propfan blade can be tailored to optimize its flutter speed by selecting the proper ply angles.

Kaza, Krishna Rao V.↗

A correlative comparison of the ring current and auroral electrojects usig geomagnetic indices

From a study of the 21 largest geomagnetic storms during solar cycle 21, a strong correlation is established between the ring current index Dst and the time-weighted accumulation of the 1-hour auroral electrojets indices, AE and AL. The time-weighted accumulation corresponds to convolution of the auroral electrojet indices with an exponential weighting function with an e-folding time of 9.4 hours. The weighted indices AE(sub w) and AL(sub w) have correltation coefficients against Dst ranging between 0.8 and 0.95 for 20 of the 21 storms. Correlation over the entire solar cycle 21 database is also strong but not as strong as for an individual storm. A set of simple Dst prediction functions provide a first approximation of the inferred dependence, but the specific functional relationship of Dst (AL(sub w)) or Dst (AL(sub w)) varies from one storm to the next in a systematic way. This variation reveals a missing parametric dependence in the transfer function. However, our results indicate that auroral electroject indices are potentially useful for predicting storm time enhancements of ring current intensity with a few hours lead time.

Cade, W. B., III↗

A Framework for Parametric and Predictive Uncertainty Quantification in the E3SM Land Model: Assessing Site and Observable Generalizability

Quantifying parametric uncertainty using observations from individual sites provides a critical foundation for Earth system modeling, serving as a necessary first step before scaling up to regional or global applications. This study introduces a novel computational framework designed to enhance model predictability by reducing parametric uncertainty and assessing site and observable generalizability using various observational constraints. The framework integrates five components: Model Simulation, Statistical Emulation, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), Model Calibration, and Model Prediction. Using the E3SM land model, we simulated site-level land-atmosphere carbon and energy fluxes from 2003 to 2007 across five evergreen needleleaf FLUXNET sites, perturbing 26 vegetation-related model parameters. Gaussian process emulators were employed to expedite GSA and model calibration. Four critical parameters that strongly influence selected land-atmosphere fluxes were identified by GSA. Bayesian approaches were used to infer parameter probability distributions leveraging synthetic data and FLUXNET observations. The results reveal that posterior parameter distributions vary significantly across different sites and observables within the same plant functional type. Probabilistic predictions indicate that parameters calibrated at one site can enhance predictive accuracy at other sites, although site heterogeneity may sometimes outweigh parametric uncertainty. Additionally, the probabilistic predictions demonstrate that calibration for one variable can also improve predictability for other variables, thereby maximizing predictive capabilities with limited observations. This framework provides a powerful approach for reducing parametric uncertainty in Earth system models and deepening our understanding of carbon dynamics and energy cycles. Its adaptability makes it a valuable tool for broader applications in Earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Whistler Waves Associated With Electron Beams in Magnetopause Reconnection Diffusion Regions

Abstract Whistler waves are often observed in magnetopause reconnection associated with electron beams. We analyze seven MMS crossings surrounding the electron diffusion region (EDR) to study the role of electron beams in whistler excitation. Waves have two major types: (a) Narrow‐band waves with high ellipticities and (b) broad‐band waves that are more electrostatic with significant variations in ellipticities and wave normal angles. While both types of waves are associated with electron beams, the key difference is the anisotropy of the background population, with perpendicular and parallel anisotropies, respectively. The linear instability analysis suggests that the first type of wave is mainly due to the background anisotropy, with the beam contributing additional cyclotron resonance to enhance the wave growth. The second type of broadband waves are excited via Landau resonance, and as seen in one event, the beam anisotropy induces an additional cyclotron mode. The results are supported by particle‐in‐cell simulations. We infer that the first type occurs downstream of the central EDR, where background electrons experience Betatron acceleration to form the perpendicular anisotropy; the second type occurs in the central EDR of guide field reconnection. A parametric study is conducted with linear instability analysis. A beam anisotropy alone of above ∼3 likely excites the cyclotron mode waves. Large beam drifts cause Doppler shifts and may lead to left‐hand polarizations in the ion frame. Future studies are needed to determine whether the observation covers a broader parameter regime and to understand the competition between whistler and other instabilities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Current profile redistribution driven by neutral beam injection in a reversed-field pinch

Neutral beam injection in reversed-field pinch (RFP) plasmas on the Madison Symmetric Torus [Dexter et al., Fusion Sci. Technol. 19, 131 (1991)] drives current redistribution with increased on-axis current density but negligible net current drive. Internal fluctuations correlated with tearing modes are observed on multiple diagnostics; the behavior of tearing mode correlated structures is consistent with flattening of the safety factor profile. The first application of a parametrized model for island flattening to temperature fluctuations in an RFP allows inferrence of rational surface locations for multiple tearing modes. The m = 1, n = 6 mode is observed to shift inward by 1.1 ± 0.6 cm with neutral beam injection. Tearing mode rational surface measurements provide a strong constraint for equilibrium reconstruction, with an estimated reduction of q{sub 0} by 5% and an increase in on-axis current density of 8% ± 5%. The inferred on-axis current drive is consistent with estimates of fast ion density using TRANSP [Goldston et al., J. Comput. Phys. 43, 61 (1981)].

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The clustering of baryonic matter. I: a halo-model approach

In this paper I generalize the halo model for the clustering of dark matter in order to produce the power spectra of the two main baryonic matter components in the Universe: stars and hot gas. As a natural extension, this can be also used to describe the clustering of all mass. According to the design of the halo model, the large-scale power spectra of the various matter components are physically connected with the distribution of each component within bound structures and thus, ultimately, with the complete set of physical processes that drive the formation of galaxies and galaxy clusters. Besides being practical for cosmological and parametric studies, the semi-analytic model presented here has also other advantages. Most importantly, it allows one to understand on physical ground what is the relative contribution of each matter component to the total clustering of mass as a function of scale, and thus it opens an interesting new window to infer the distribution of baryons through high precision cosmic shear measurements. This is particularly relevant for future wide-field photometric surveys such as Euclid. In this work the concept of the model and its uncertainties are illustrated in detail, while in a companion paper we use a set of numerical hydrodynamic simulations to show a practical application and to investigate where the model itself needs to be improved.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗