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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Subglacial Discharge Effects on Antarctic Ice‐Shelf Basal Melt and the Southern Ocean in a Global, Coupled Ocean—Sea‐Ice Model

Subglacial freshwater from beneath Antarctica enters the ocean at depth, enhancing ice-shelf melting and affecting Southern Ocean properties. To study these effects in an Antarctic-wide context, we use a continental-scale subglacial hydrology model that calculates grounding line freshwater flux for a global, coupled ocean—sea-ice model. We find that subglacial discharge impacts melt rates primarily through continental shelf temperature modification, contrasting with findings from regional studies that do not permit large-scale adjustments. The consequence is that Antarctic melt rates scale with subglacial discharge more strongly than inferred from regional studies. We also find that the addition of buoyancy at depth facilitates heat upwelling to the surface, resulting in higher sea ice volume downstream of cold ice shelves and lower sea ice volume downstream of warm ice shelves. This highlights the drawbacks of simplifications in previous global studies that deposit Antarctic meltwater at the ocean surface and find uniform ocean surface cooling and sea-ice growth. While the patterns we find are robust, we conclude that the addition of subglacial discharge at present-day rates has a small effect on basal melt rates, hydrography, and sea ice. However, stronger discharge can have significant effects and can even accelerate a shift from low to high melting for ice shelves close to such a tipping point. Finally, the importance of feedbacks between enhanced cavity overturning and continental shelf conditions poses a complication for parameterizing subglacial discharge effects on melting for ice-sheet projections that do not include a coupled ocean component.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nodal hybridization in a two-dimensional heavy-fermion material

Metals with partially filled core atomic shells can form quasiparticles at a low temperature arising from the hybridization of the core level and conduction electrons. The thermodynamic and spectroscopic properties of these metals can be understood as those of a simple metal, but with a significant mass enhancement over the free electron mass—commonly referred to as heavy fermions. In most heavy-fermion materials, the hybridization is approximately isotropic in position and momentum space. However, a combination of low dimensionality and symmetry properties of the core-level wavefunctions can give rise to highly anisotropic electronic interactions with the conduction electrons. Here, in this study, we demonstrate anisotropic hybridization that vanishes along specific directions in momentum space—referred to as nodes—in a lanthanide-based two-dimensional van der Waals heavy-fermion compound, CeSiI. Quasiparticle interference measurements reveal a set of discrete hotspots with high spectral intensity on the Fermi surface. Theoretical modelling and comparison with the quasiparticle interference pattern of the non-heavy-fermion isostructural analogue LaSiI suggest that these features arise from an unconventional electron interaction involving hybridization nodes unique to CeSiI. As a result, the effective mass of the quasiparticles varies by orders of magnitude depending on their direction in momentum space.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Localized exciton emission from monolayer WS 2 nanoribbon at cryogenic temperature

Abstract We conducted low-temperature photoluminescence (PL) spectroscopy experiments on individual WS 2 and MoSe 2 nanoribbons prepared by gold-assisted exfoliation from the slanted surface of bulk crystals with a vicinal and stepwise pattern. The nanoribbons are predominantly monolayer and have widths varying from hundreds of nanometers down to tens of nanometers. Most MoSe 2 NRs display an emission profile similar to 2D excitons of MoSe 2 monolayers. In contrast, WS 2 nanoribbons are characterized with sharp emission peaks that can be attributed to the emission from localized excitons or trions. Moreover a broad low energy emission peak can be also observed from some of the WS 2 nanoribbons, which originates from bilayer regions. In this manuscript, we analyze spectral diffusion behavior along with pump power and temperature dependence of the localized exciton emission peaks, shedding light on potential of TMDC nanoribbons in sensing and opto-electronic applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of N 2 /O 2 plasma interaction with Pt-catalyst: effect of metastable adsorbates on product hysteresis

The coupling of catalysts and atmospheric-pressure plasma has the potential to improve the efficiency of certain catalytic reactions. Understanding the changes that the catalyst surface undergoes during exposure to plasma is key to improving plasma–catalytic performance. In this work, long term exposure of Pt–Al 2 O 3 powder catalyst to an Ar/N 2 /O 2 non-equilibrium atmospheric-pressure plasma-jet was investigated. Products produced by the interaction were analyzed downstream with Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy while surface species were analyzed operandi with diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy. During exposure, the catalyst temperature was ramped cyclically between 100 °C and 350 °C to understand how substrate temperature affects the plasma–catalyst interaction. Long-lasting changes were revealed to take place on the catalyst surface during plasma exposure. At low temperatures, Pt–O and Pt–NO accumulate on the surface which react at elevated temperatures to form NO 2 . NO 2 initially appears to spill on to the Al 2 O 3 support as nitrites and nitrates instead of desorbing. Stable surface conditions are only achieved after prolonged plasma exposure, when nitrate sites on the Al 2 O 3 support are filled. By changing the catalyst temperature at various rates, the impact of total plasma species flux to the surface was analyzed. It was found that decreasing the heating rate increased the hysteresis in the pattern of NO 2 formation during thermal cycling. The variation with temperature demonstrates that plasma exposure results in a buildup of surface NO x and oxygen species which react or desorb at high temperatures. The observed changes are discussed from the generic viewpoint that a non-equilibrium plasma interacting with a catalyst at low temperature introduces metastable steady-state surface conditions. Upon heating above a threshold temperature, the introduced surface modifications can change either due to thermal effects, or, for a plasma environment, by additional interaction with the incident plasma species flux. The surface/material changes take place in a highly predictable fashion and after sufficient time above the threshold temperature reach a steady-state condition that is different from the transient behavior that is observed during initial heating. During cooling the plasma-surface interaction exhibits a different behavior than during heating, and this results in hysteresis of diverse observables. The metastability/hysteresis description appears quite generic and analogous to hysteresis behavior seen for different systems. Furthermore, it is expected to be useful for understanding the consequences of plasma–catalyst surface interactions for various systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Laterally Modulating Carrier Concentration by Ion Irradiation in CdO Thin Films for Mid‐IR Plasmonics

This report demonstrates tunable carrier densities in CdO thin films through local ion irradiation, providing lateral control of mid‐IR optical properties. Ion‐solid interactions produce donor‐like defects that boost electron concentrations from the practical minimum of 2.5 × 10 19 cm −3 to a maximum of 2.5 × 10 20 cm −3 by metered ion exposure. This range is achieved using He, N, Ar, or Au ions at 1–2.8 MeV; when normalized by displacements per atom, all ion species produce comparable results. Since CdO is well‐described by the Drude model, irradiation‐tuned carrier densities directly alter the infrared dielectric function, and in turn, mid‐infrared optical properties. Further, it is demonstrated that by combining irradiation with traditional lithography, CdO films expose to ions in the presence of 3‐µm thick, patterned photoresist exhibit lateral carrier density profiles with ≈400‐nm resolution. Scanning near‐field optical microscopy reveals sharp optical interfaces with almost no companion contrast in surface morphology, microstructure, or crystallinity. Finally, CdO lateral homostructures supporting surface plasmon polaritons (SPPs) are demonstrated whose dispersion relation can be tuned through periodic patterning in a monolithic platform by simple nanofabrication. Numerical simulations show these polaritons result from strong coupling between excitations at CdO plasma frequencies and SPPs supported by the platinum substrate.

cadmium oxide↗
DOE OSTI2026

Surface Stress Characterization and Trends in Thermally Strengthened Photovoltaic Module Glass

Simultaneous changes in photovoltaic (PV) module architecture-such as increased area, replacing the polymeric backsheet with a glass backsheet, and reducing glass thickness from 3.2 to 2.0 mm-have resulted in a novel failure called spontaneous glass breakage. Spontaneous glass breakage results in front and/or rear glass failure without any obvious cause. The resulting low-energy fracture patterns have raised concerns about the thermal strengthening in 2.0-mm glass. We present validation of a nondestructive method for measuring the glass surface stress in PV modules. We use a scattered light polariscope to examine the glass properties of 11 modules from 6 solar fields, with and without spontaneous glass breakage. Based on a Mann-Whitney test p-value of 1.4 x 10-6, we conclude that there is a correlation between lower surface stress and susceptibility to spontaneous breakage. A Kendall's Tau test p-value of 2.0 x 10-4 indicates a correlation between increased module area and lower surface stress. We find that 2.0-mm glass can be, and often is, fully tempered (surface stress ≥69 MPa), but inspecting the fracture pattern is not a reliable way to assess the amount of thermal strengthening. A combination of factors, not just surface stress, influences glass breakage.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Large Eddy Simulations of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Over Satellite‐Sensed Sea Ice Maps

Surface heterogeneity in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) causes multiscale secondary atmospheric circulations that are challenging to model or observe. The absence or inadequate representation of these circulations in ocean‐atmosphere exchange schemes in climate models is partially responsible for the underestimation of Arctic sea ice loss. Observationally, such circulations obfuscate the interpretation of polar atmospheric chemistry measurements, among others. To address this open challenge, large‐eddy simulations are conducted over real‐world satellite‐sensed sea ice maps with an ice‐sea temperature contrast, as well as over idealizations of these maps that alter the ice pattern but conserve its fraction, showing that the ice fraction of a surface is not sufficient to predict the surface heat flux. In a second suite of simulations, three other heterogeneity metrics (representing the surface fragmentation, patch edge tortuosity, and patch size variability) are introduced to complement the ice fraction in describing the surface. Simulations varying these parameters suggest that they also significantly impact surface‐air interactions. A roughness contrast is then added to the surface temperature contrast, indicating that the contribution of roughness changes to the resulting atmospheric circulations is less pronounced than that of thermal heterogeneity. Based on these results, we illustrate, using a multi‐linear regression on these map features, that MIZ surface parameterizations in Earth Systems Models can be improved if they account for these various characteristics of the sea‐ice patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Long‐term growth and persistence of granitic inselbergs in a semi‐arid cratonic landscape

Granitic inselbergs are enduring landforms that punctuate planation surfaces in tectonically stable settings, yet the mechanisms and timescales of their persistence remain debated. Here, in this study, we present a multinuclide cosmogenic dataset ( 10 Be, 26 Al and 21 Ne) from bedrock, fluvial sediments and planation surfaces in the semi-arid Central Ceará Domain, north-eastern Brazil, to quantify denudation rates and reconstruct the long-term dynamics of residual relief formation. This triple-nuclide approach enables independent validation of denudation contrasts and long-term exposure histories, providing quantitative constraints on inselberg evolution that a single-nuclide approach could not resolve. Bedrock denudation rates (1–4 m Myr −1 ) are systematically lower than basin-wide rates (8–14 m Myr −1 ), revealing a regional pattern of vertical differential denudation. When combined with summit elevations and surface exposure ages of up to 5 Myr, these contrasts suggest that cumulative relief growth has been operating over timescales of tens of millions of years (1–57 Myr). Morphological and structural observations further indicate localized mass wasting and heterogeneous erosion styles, modulated by rock fabric and joint density. Cosmogenic nuclide inventories in detrital sediments reveal partial reworking from older sediment stocks, including surface pebbles with exposure ages up to 5 Myr, which record multistage of burial and re-exposure histories and reflect episodic remobilization in low-connectivity, semi-arid catchments. Rather than static relicts of ancient surfaces, inselbergs in this cratonic setting emerge as dynamic landforms actively sustained by slow but persistent differential denudation. These results provide new constraints on long-term cratonic landscape evolution and underscore the interplay between lithological resistance, structural inheritance and sediment transfer processes in sustaining topographic relief. They also call for a critical reassessment of classical inselberg models, suggesting that hybrid mechanisms, rather than single-process paradigms, more accurately capture the complexity of residual landform development in cratonic interiors.

Cosmogenic nuclides↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fine-scale vegetation composition and structure shape spatiotemporal variation in surface albedo across a low Arctic tundra landscape

The unprecedented rate of warming in the Arctic is driving changes in the structure and composition of tundra vegetation. Increases in deciduous tall shrub cover, height, and density are of particular concern, as these changes alter local surface albedo in ways that could amplify effects on the regional surface energy budget (SEB). Despite this importance, significant uncertainties remain in understanding the interplay between fine-scale vegetation patterns and emergent albedo dynamics across space and time. Here, we address these uncertainties by (1) quantifying spatiotemporal variation in surface shortwave albedo and (2) determining the relative influence of fine-scale vegetation composition, structure, and environmental conditions on albedo across a representative low-Arctic tundra landscape on Alaska’s Seward Peninsula. To do this, we synthesized multi-scale, multi-platform remote sensing observations, including a novel Landsat-derived albedo time series, a fine-scale map of Arctic plant functional type (PFT) fractional cover, and airborne LiDAR estimates of canopy height and topography. We show that there are substantial reductions in winter albedo for pixels dominated by tall, woody PFTs (28.13%) relative to pixels dominated by non-woody vegetation, but almost no change in summer albedo (3% increase). Further, we identified a unimodal trend in the relationship between canopy height and the timing of the springtime transition from high (snowy) to low (leafy) albedo (peak at 5.5 m), possibly because of competing ‘snow-fence’ and ‘protrusion’ snow-shrub interactions. To explore the primary drivers of albedo, we constructed a random forest model and found that canopy height and the fractional cover of woody PFTs were as- or more important predictors of winter albedo than topographic features. These findings provide strong evidence for the impacts of local vegetation characteristics on regional surface albedo, highlighting the need for better quantification of snow-shrub interactions to accurately predict the Arctic’s SEB under future environmental change.

Arctic↗
DOE OSTI2024

A global comparison of surface and subsurface microbiomes reveals large-scale biodiversity gradients, and a marine-terrestrial divide

Subsurface environments are among Earth’s largest habitats for microbial life. Yet, until recently, we lacked adequate data to accurately differentiate between globally distributed marine and terrestrial surface and subsurface microbiomes. Here, we analyzed 478 archaeal and 964 bacterial metabarcoding datasets and 147 metagenomes from diverse and widely distributed environments. Microbial diversity is similar in marine and terrestrial microbiomes at local to global scales. However, community composition greatly differs between sea and land, corroborating a phylogenetic divide that mirrors patterns in plant and animal diversity. In contrast, community composition overlaps between surface to subsurface environments supporting a diversity continuum rather than a discrete subsurface biosphere. Differences in microbial life thus seem greater between land and sea than between surface and subsurface. Diversity of terrestrial microbiomes decreases with depth, while marine subsurface diversity and phylogenetic distance to cultured isolates rivals or exceeds that of surface environments. We identify distinct microbial community compositions but similar microbial diversity for Earth’s subsurface and surface environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The relative importance of wind and hydroclimate drivers in modulating the interannual variability of dust emissions in Earth system models

Windblown dust emissions are controlled by near-surface wind speed and sediment erodibility, the latter modulated by hydroclimate and land-use conditions. Accurate representations of these drivers are critical for reproducing historical dust variability and projecting future dust changes in Earth system models (ESMs). This study examines the discrepancies among 21 ESMs in the relative importance of wind speed versus five hydroclimate drivers in explaining the historical (1980–2014) variability of dust emissions from global drylands. In hyperarid areas, models show poor agreement in the simulated dust variability, with only 9 % out of 210 inter-model comparisons exhibiting significant positive correlations. In contrast, arid and semiarid areas exhibit a dual pattern driven by a “double-edged sword” effect of land surface memory: models with coherent hydroclimate variability show better agreement, whereas those with divergent hydroclimate representations show larger disagreement. While the ESMs capture the dominant role of wind speed in hyperarid areas, they diverge markedly in the relative contributions of wind and hydroclimate drivers in arid and semiarid areas. Replacing the Zender et al. (2003) dust scheme with the Kok et al. (2014) scheme in CESM and E3SM generally strengthens hydroclimate influences while reducing wind speed contributions to simulated dust variability. MERRA-2 reanalysis produces stronger wind influences than most ESMs across all dryland regions. These results underscore the need for improved near-surface wind simulations in hyperarid areas and more realistic land surface and hydroclimate representations in arid and semiarid areas to reduce uncertainties in global dust emission simulations.

Li, Xinzhu [Michigan Technological University, Hou↗
DOE OSTI2026

Subseasonal Tropical Convection Characteristics in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 2

Accurate simulation of subseasonal tropical moist convection remains a key challenge for Earth system models. The difficulties stem from the reliance of cumulus cloud processes on model parameterizations and the need to represent the multiscale nature of interactions among clouds, radiation, moisture, circulation, and surface energy fluxes. Equatorial convection drives circulation anomalies that can affect weather patterns and extremes globally, motivating efforts to better understand and simulate these tropical disturbances. Here, a detailed review of subseasonal tropical convective behavior as simulated in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) is presented, with comparison to its predecessor version 1 (E3SMv1) and reference data sets. Model structural changes to the deep convective trigger function and surface fluxes, along with parametric tuning of the cloud and microphysics schemes, together result in an improved depiction of organized tropical convection across scales. In particular, E3SMv2 exhibits a more realistic Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) and low‐frequency Kelvin waves—owing to a sharper time mean equatorial meridional moisture gradient and improved convection‐circulation coupling —as well as a better depiction of MJO Northern Hemisphere teleconnections. Despite these improvements, subseasonal precipitation variance continues to be strongly underestimated in E3SMv2. Use of a cloud plume model also reveals that the coupling between daily averaged tropical precipitation and lower tropospheric instability in E3SM is inconsistent with observations, a bias that could potentially impact the simulation of intraseasonal disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Numerical Analysis of Offshore Wind-Farm-Induced Drag Effects on Coastal Upwelling Dynamics

Wind farms extract momentum from the atmospheric flow, generating wind-speed deficits both within the plant, and extending downstream. When located offshore, these deficits modulate air-sea coupling, potentially impacting coastal upwelling in sensitive regions. We investigate impacts of wind farms on coastal upwelling using kilometre-scale, three-way-coupled simulations with the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport system for the US West Coast. Wind-farm effects are represented by a generalised turbine drag formulation, an idealised, height-dependent body force whose magnitude is systematically varied. This approach isolates the leading-order fluid-dynamical response in a realistic coastal configuration. The atmospheric adjustment exhibits an approximately linear relation between drag force and wind-speed deficit, with wakes that expand downstream and increase in magnitude as drag increases. An empirical orthogonal function analysis of sea-surface-temperature anomalies reveals the emergence of a canonical dipole pattern under strong drag forcing. Subsurface diagnostics show consistent shoaling of the mixed layer and suppressed upward velocities in areas near wind-farm region, accompanied by compensating enhancements of shoaling closer to the coast. These results identify turbine drag as a control parameter in assessing interactions between wind-farm wake and coastal upwelling and provide scaling relationships for understanding offshore wind-farm effects on the coastal circulation dynamics.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

Planarizing Spalled GaAs(100) Surfaces by MOVPE Growth

III-V photovoltaic devices have demonstrated exceptional performance across various applications, with controlled crystal fracturing, known as controlled spalling, emerging as a promising method to reduce costs by enabling substrate reuse. Spalling GaAs(100) substrates, a commonly used substrate in III-V photovoltaics, results in faceted ridges that must be planarized to grow high-quality photovoltaic devices. Here, in this study, we demonstrate that a GaAs(100) wafer offcut toward [$0\bar{11}$] and spalled toward [$011$] can be efficiently planarized by growing C:GaAs by metal-organic vapor phase epitaxy (MOVPE) on the surface, with up to 95% of the nominally deposited material used to fill the valleys between ridges. We find that reducing the offcut to 2° enhances the planarizing capability of C:GaAs. A surface morphology model indicates that the density of surface dangling bonds significantly influences the growth evolution of undoped GaAs surfaces. In contrast, the model suggests that the effectiveness of C:GaAs as a smoothing layer stems from modifying the atomic surface structure and, consequently, the associated sticking coefficients of the facets, which can alter the evolution of surface morphology. Our findings provide guidelines for the epitaxial planarization of semiconductor surfaces and improve the understanding of MOVPE growth on nonplanar surfaces.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Landuse and land cover shape organic contaminants distribution in the Oconee River watershed in Georgia

Amid growing concerns over the persistence of organic contaminants, this study examines the influence of land-use patterns on their distribution in the Oconee River watershed, Georgia. Surface water samples from five sites across urban, recreational, and forested areas of Georgia’sOconee River watershed were analyzed for 22 organic contaminants, including pesticides and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Contaminant concentrations varied, with Acenaphthene (max: 19,462.04 ng/L), Chrysene (max: 984.10 ng/L), and Naphthalene (max: 2428.06 ng/L) being predominant. Atrazine (max: 171.04 ng/L) and Malathion (max: 114.99 ng/L)were the most detected pesticides. Land use and land cover significantly influence organic contaminant distribution, with higher levels in forested and urban areas. Risk Quotient (RQ) analysis confirmed no contaminants surpassed the critical threshold, though cumulative exposure may pose long-term risks. The study emphasizes the need for targeted monitoring and regulatory efforts to safeguard water quality in river systems influenced by diverse land-use practices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electronic interactions in Dirac fluids visualized by nano-terahertz spacetime interference of electron-photon quasiparticles

Ultraclean graphene at charge neutrality hosts a quantum critical Dirac fluid of interacting electrons and holes. Interactions profoundly affect the charge dynamics of graphene, which is encoded in the properties of its electron-photon collective modes: surface plasmon polaritons (SPPs). Here, we show that polaritonic interference patterns are particularly well suited to unveil the interactions in Dirac fluids by tracking polaritonic interference in time at temporal scales commensurate with the electronic scattering. Spacetime SPP interference patterns recorded in terahertz (THz) frequency range provided unobstructed readouts of the group velocity and lifetime of polariton that can be directly mapped onto the electronic spectral weight and the relaxation rate. Our data uncovered prominent departures of the electron dynamics from the predictions of the conventional Fermi-liquid theory. The deviations are particularly strong when the densities of electrons and holes are approximately equal. The proposed spacetime imaging methodology can be broadly applied to probe the electrodynamics of quantum materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Direct numerical simulation of open-channel flow over a heterogeneous particle bed at low relative submergence

In this article, this study investigates turbulent open-channel flows over beds of irregularly arranged particles, using direct numerical simulations at a friction Reynolds number of Re T = 300⁠. Two distinct cases are examined: a polydisperse bed (P800) composed of multiple layers of randomly distributed spheres of varying sizes, and a monodisperse bed (M1015) formed by a random distribution of uniform sized spheres, with a bottommost single layer of varied-sized particles to introduce realistic randomness. Our investigation unveils a rich network of low- and high-speed streaks within the flow field, exhibiting distinctive behaviors in different bed configurations. The P800 case presents a poorly organized flow pattern induced by the varied particle sizes and arrangements, while the M1015 case shows a more regular flow pattern, marked by larger streaks. We also observe that total wall shear stress is substantially influenced by surface roughness-induced drag, extending beyond the effects documented in existing studies of open-channel flows. The present study reveals intricate secondary flow patterns over irregular particle beds. Large-scale circulations are discerned around particle crests in the P800 case and localized circulations with increased turbulence in the M1015 case. Furthermore, analysis of Reynolds stress tensor components indicates that roughness disrupts coherent turbulent eddies, consequently mitigating peak stress. We quantify correlations between drag force and local fluid velocity fluctuations. Notably, a larger deviation in drag is observed in the P800 case compared to M1015, accentuating the influence of particle size and distribution on fluid–particle interactions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Relative Importance of Forced and Unforced Temperature Patterns in Driving the Time Variation of Low-Cloud Feedback

Abstract Atmospheric models forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) suggest a trend toward a more-stabilizing cloud feedback in recent decades, partly due to the surface cooling trend in the eastern Pacific (EP) and the warming trend in the western Pacific (WP). Here, we show model evidence that the low-cloud feedback has contributions from both forced and unforced feedback components and that its time variation arises in large part through changes in the relative importance of the two over time, rather than through variations in forced or unforced feedbacks themselves. Initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) suggest that the SST patterns are dominated by unforced variations for 30-yr windows ending prior to the 1980s. In general, unforced SSTs are representative of an ENSO-like pattern, which corresponds to weak low-level stability in the tropics and less-stabilizing low-cloud feedback. Since the 1980s, the forced signals have become stronger, outweighing the unforced signals for the 30-yr windows ending after the 2010s. Forced SSTs are characterized by relatively uniform warming with an enhancement in the WP, corresponding to a more-stabilizing low-cloud feedback in most cases. The time-evolving SST pattern due to this increasing importance of forced signals is the dominant contributor to the recent stabilizing shift of low-cloud feedback in the LEs. Using single-forcing LEs, we further find that if only greenhouse gases evolve with time, the transition to the domination of forced signals occurs 10–20 years earlier compared to the LEs with full forcings, which can be understood through the compensating effect between aerosols and greenhouse gases.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗