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Components Refurbishment and Chemical Analysis Facility, Hot Spot 1 SWMU #041 Year 3 Annual Performance Monitoring Report Kennedy Space Center, Florida

This Year 3 Annual Performance Monitoring Report (PMR) presents the operations, maintenance, and monitoring activities for the Hydraulic Containment System (HCS) Interim Measure (IM) at the Components Refurbishment and Chemical Analysis (CRCA) facility located at John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. The primary objective of the HCS is to attain hydraulic control of the dissolved-phase chlorinated volatile organic compound (CVOC) plume, with the secondary objective to reduce concentrations of CVOCs in the high-concentration plume to support transition to monitored natural attenuation (MNA). CRCA has been designated Solid Waste Management Unit 041 under the KSC Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Corrective Action Program. The timeframe for activities documented in this Year 3 PMR extends from September 2021 through October 2022. Baseline sampling activities were completed in June 2019, and full-scale startup of the HCS IM was completed in July-August 2019. The operational runtime of the HCS for the Year 3 reporting period was approximately 91%, with the majority of downtime attributed to system maintenance and repair. This is generally consistent with Year 1 and Year 2 runtimes of 85% and 92%, respectively. To help reduce downtime, an anti-scaling amendment, Redux 390, has been used to reduce scaling and help maintain system design parameters. Over nine million gallons of groundwater were treated during Year 3 of HCS operations, and concentrations of the site’s contaminants of concern (trans-1,2-dichloroethene and vinyl chloride) have been reduced by over 97%. This PMR describes the activities that were performed during Year 3 to operate and monitor the HCS IM, which includes three extraction wells, seven injection wells, and conveyance piping to a modular structure containing the control panel and an air stripper. Influent and effluent sampling results from the air stripper show that the system is operating as designed and is reducing concentrations of contaminants of concern to below detection limits. In addition to HCS operation, this PMR also discusses performance monitoring that has been implemented to assess progress of the HCS IM and overall plume conditions through scheduled groundwater (quarterly and semi-annual) and sub-slab soil gas (quarterly) sampling and analysis. Two ambient air samples were also collected on a quarterly basis in the vicinity of the modular structure and the paved driveway east of the Solvent Reclamation Area during routine operation and maintenance (O&M) activities to ensure safe breathing zone air quality for on-site personnel. All sub-slab soil gas and ambient air sampling conducted during the Year 3 operational period showed results below applicable regulatory air screening limits. Predictions made during the Year 2 groundwater model updates were in close correlation to post Year 3 plume conditions. Therefore, it can be assumed that the projected path remains valid for transition to MNA in one to two years of continuous HCS operation. The contents of this Year 3 PMR were presented during the February 2023 KSC Remediation Team meeting, where Team consensus was reached on several items including continued O&M of the HCS, and continued monitoring of groundwater, ambient air, and sub-slab soil gas. Replacement of MW0019 and VMP04 was also recommended, as well as additional direct-push technology sampling to further delineate the downgradient plume and confirm overall site-wide low-concentration plume boundaries. Sampling for per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances at CRCA is ongoing and will be submitted under separate cover.

K. Alex Murphy↗

Components Refurbishment and Chemical Analysis Facility, Hot Spot 1 Solid Waste Management Unit #041 Year 4 Annual Performance Monitoring Report Kennedy Space Center, Florida

This Year 4 Annual Performance Monitoring Report (PMR) presents the operations, maintenance, and monitoring activities for the Hydraulic Containment System (HCS) Interim Measure (IM) at the Components Refurbishment and Chemical Analysis (CRCA) facility located at John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. The primary objective of the HCS is to attain hydraulic control of the dissolved-phase chlorinated volatile organic compound (CVOC) plume, with the secondary objective to reduce concentrations of CVOCs in the high-concentration plume to support transition to monitored natural attenuation (MNA). CRCA has been designated Solid Waste Management Unit 041 under the KSC Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Corrective Action Program. The timeframe for activities documented in this Year 4 PMR extends from November 2022 through September 2023. Baseline sampling activities were completed in June 2019, and full-scale startup of the HCS IM was completed in July-August 2019. The operational runtime of the HCS for the Year 4 reporting period was approximately 94%, with the majority of downtime attributed to associated groundwater sampling events, maintenance, and Hurricane Nicole. Almost five million gallons of groundwater were treated during Year 4 of HCS operations, and concentrations of the site’s contaminants of concern (trans-1,2-dichloroethene and vinyl chloride) have been reduced by over 99%. This PMR describes the activities that were performed during Year 4 to operate and monitor the HCS IM, which includes three extraction wells, seven injection wells, and conveyance piping to a modular structure containing the control panel and an air stripper. Influent and effluent sampling results from the air stripper show that the system is operating as designed and is reducing concentrations of contaminants of concern to below detection limits. In addition to HCS operation, this PMR also discusses performance monitoring that has been implemented to assess progress of the HCS IM and overall plume conditions through scheduled groundwater (quarterly and semi-annual) and sub-slab soil gas (quarterly) sampling and analysis. Two ambient air samples were also collected on a quarterly basis in the vicinity of the modular structure and the paved driveway east of the Solvent Reclamation Area during routine operation and maintenance (O&M) activities to ensure safe breathing zone air quality for on-site personnel. All sub-slab soil gas and ambient air sampling conducted during the Year 4 operational period showed results below applicable regulatory air screening limits. Predictions made during the Year 2 groundwater model updates were in close correlation to post Year 4 plume conditions. A supplemental DPT study conducted in 2022 and 2023. This study indicated that low-concentration plume conditions, where concentrations exceed State of Florida Groundwater Cleanup Target Levels, expanded westward to Kennedy Parkway North and northward to the vicinity of the railroad tracks. Based on these results, recommendations were made to install 14 wells to monitor the downgradient and boundary conditions of the expanded LCP. The contents of this Year 4 PMR were presented during the November 2023 KSC Remediation Team meeting, where Team consensus was reached on several items including continued O&M of the HCS, and continued monitoring of groundwater, ambient air, and sub-slab soil gas. Sampling for per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances at CRCA is ongoing and will be submitted under separate cover.

K. Alex Murphy↗

Advanced optical condition monitoring

The application of Advanced Optical Condition Monitoring to optical leak detection and plume spectrometry is discussed. The development of these selected sensors for propulsion system monitoring is addressed.

Cross, G.↗

OPAD 1991

The Optical Plume Anomaly Detection Program, an experimental study in the attempt to create a rocket engine health monitor based on detection and possible quantification of anomalous atomic and molecular species in the exhaust plume, has been in existence for several years. The instruments developed to monitor the exhaust plumes are presented. Two optical instruments are employed: the polychromator and the spectrometer. The polychromator is a 16 channel spectroradiometer having independent channels individually adjustable for center wavelength and pass bandwidth. Those values may be mechanically reset, with the aid of certain lab equipment. The spectrometer is a multichannel spectral analyzer having two 2048 element linear photodiode arrays at the exit plane of the dispersing instrument, which, like the 16 channel device, is a 1/2 meter grating spectrograph. These instruments are equipped with ultraviolet grade multifiber optical input cables, allowing the instruments to be placed in a benign environment. Telescopes mounted on the test stand observe the plume keeping the shock structure in view. The data acquisition and control system consist of four 80386-33 MHz computers: two at the test stand for instrument control and data preconditioning, and two in the test support building providing data archiving, display, and system control. Further descriptions of the instrumentation are provided.

Powers, W. T.↗

Well–based monitoring of CO 2 geological sequestration operations in saline aquifers: Critical insights into key questions

Geological carbon sequestration in saline aquifers is one of the most promising strategies to help mitigate emissions of CO 2 to the atmosphere. Significant challenges in ensuring the security of the sequestration process rest in the evolution and expansion of the CO 2 plume in the subsurface. The ability to track the movement of the injected CO 2 poses another challenge. Critical questions related to the integrity of the sequestration operations in saline aquifers relate to plume characteristics that can we monitor using well-based variables. We addressed this and related questions using an integrated modeling framework through a numerical investigation of carbon sequestration in saline aquifers during long-term and post-injection periods. This modeling paradigm incorporates the effect of structural, geological, and petrophysical characteristics. That way, we can account for critical physicochemical processes, rock-fluid interactions, and lithology dependencies. The well fluid variables investigated include fluid composition, pH, fluid density, and ion activity. We learned that fluid property analytics and diagnostics can be powerful tools to estimate the movement of CO 2 and its storage in different trapping mechanisms. These analytics can help optimize operational aspects and simplify reservoir-scale models while still reflecting the complex nature of the CO 2 interactions underground and offering insights into plume evolution.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Elastic-wave sensitivity-guided adaptive seismic survey design for cost-effective monitoring of geological carbon storage

Effective seismic monitoring is essential for verifying CO₂ containment, detecting potential leakage, and optimizing operational decisions in geologic carbon storage. Here, this study presents a time-adaptive, elastic-wave sensitivity-guided framework for designing cost-effective seismic monitoring layouts for tracking CO₂ plume migration. The method is based on elastic-wave sensitivity analysis, which quantifies how variations in subsurface properties impact seismic wavefields. Two complementary design strategies are developed: one based on selecting a fixed number of seismic sources (Method A), and the other based on selecting source–receiver pairs contributing to a fixed fraction of cumulative elastic-wave sensitivity energy (Method B). The optimization workflow to identify source–receiver configurations with the highest detection potential is demonstrated using a hypothetical GCS scenario at the Kimberlina site in California using simulations of elastic-wave sensitivity data at multiple post-injection timesteps. Results show that both strategies adapt to evolving plume geometries and wavefield sensitivities, with Method B offering broader spatial coverage and Method A ensuring simpler deployment. This framework enables site-specific, cost-effective, and risk-informed seismic survey designs, enhancing the ability to monitor CO₂ migration over time in evolving geological environments

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Rocket Engine Plume Diagnostics at Stennis Space Center

The Stennis Space Center has been at the forefront of development and application of exhaust plume spectroscopy to rocket engine health monitoring since 1989. Various spectroscopic techniques, such as emission, absorption, FTIR, LIF, and CARS, have been considered for application at the engine test stands. By far the most successful technology h a been exhaust plume emission spectroscopy. In particular, its application to the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) ground test health monitoring has been invaluable in various engine testing and development activities at SSC since 1989. On several occasions, plume diagnostic methods have successfully detected a problem with one or more components of an engine long before any other sensor indicated a problem. More often, they provide corroboration for a failure mode, if any occurred during an engine test. This paper gives a brief overview of our instrumentation and computational systems for rocket engine plume diagnostics at SSC. Some examples of successful application of exhaust plume spectroscopy (emission as well as absorption) to the SSME testing are presented. Our on-going plume diagnostics technology development projects and future requirements are discussed.

Tejwani, Gopal D.↗

Novel Carbon Storage Monitoring Methods

Conference presentation at American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AIChE) Annual Meeting, San Diego, California, October 27–31, 2024. We presented a high-level overview of many novel and sustainable carbon storage monitoring methods that are at various stages of planning or demonstration to accelerate the deployment of CCS technologies at future CCS sites across the United States. Our work impacts the general CCS industry by providing novel and more sustainable methods for tracking CO 2 plume migration and performing assurance monitoring. Our work primarily benefits three parties: 1) CCS community members through knowledge sharing of lessons learned; 2) CCS operators through commercialization of additional methods, including improvements on workflows and simplification of fieldwork; and 3) stakeholders of CCS projects through implementation of low-impact and more autonomous monitoring solutions.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Linear Spectral Analysis of Plume Emissions Using an Optical Matrix Processor

Plume spectrometry provides a means to monitor the health of a burning rocket engine, and optical matrix processors provide a means to analyze the plume spectra in real time. By observing the spectrum of the exhaust plume of a rocket engine, researchers have detected anomalous behavior of the engine and have even determined the failure of some equipment before it would normally have been noticed. The spectrum of the plume is analyzed by isolating information in the spectrum about the various materials present to estimate what materials are being burned in the engine. Scientists at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) have implemented a high resolution spectrometer to discriminate the spectral peaks of the many species present in the plume. Researchers at the Stennis Space Center Demonstration Testbed Facility (DTF) have implemented a high resolution spectrometer observing a 1200-lb. thrust engine. At this facility, known concentrations of contaminants can be introduced into the burn, allowing for the confirmation of diagnostic algorithms. While the high resolution of the measured spectra has allowed greatly increased insight into the functioning of the engine, the large data flows generated limit the ability to perform real-time processing. The use of an optical matrix processor and the linear analysis technique described below may allow for the detailed real-time analysis of the engine's health. A small optical matrix processor can perform the required mathematical analysis both quicker and with less energy than a large electronic computer dedicated to the same spectral analysis routine.

Gary, C. K.↗

Economic assessment of seismic monitoring for underground hydrogen storage

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) plays a key role in the energy landscape. However, like other subsurface engineering technologies, UHS may cause leakage into the groundwater or atmosphere and possibly induce local seismicity. To reduce these risks, seismic monitoring could be a viable technique to track the UHS plume, detect leakages, and locate induced seismicity events. Seismic monitoring has been proposed to safely monitor UHS, but research in this area is still new and requires field studies. Lab and theoretical studies have demonstrated the validity of seismic monitoring for UHS. Therefore, it is imperative to analyze the economic feasibility of seismic monitoring for UHS. Hence, we develop a cost model and open-source Python code for seismic monitoring that considers types of seismometers, comprehensive operational scenarios, detection thresholds, and long-term leakage monitoring. A case study is further provided to validate the cost model on reservoir simulations of UHS. We find that the levelized cost for a 10-year operating UHS site will range on the order of ∼0.003 $\$$/kg. The methods developed in this study could also be applied to the monitoring of groundwater, gas, and/or wastewater injection.

08 HYDROGEN↗

HERO CarbonSAFE Phase 2 Project in the Columbia River Basalt Group

The Hermiston, Oregon Basalt CarbonSAFE Phase II project (HERO CarbonSAFE) seeks to accelerate the deployment of commercial carbon dioxide (CO2) storage projects in basaltic rocks. Basalt CO2 storage has several advantages to conventional saline storage reservoirs including 1. The potential for rapid mineralization of CO2, 2. Associated decreases in pressure and CO2 migration risks, 3. Reduced long-term monitoring requirements with respect to plume tracking, 4. Widespread geographic distribution and, 5. Large storage potential due to thickness, porosity, and CO2 interactions with basalt. And for locations such as the Pacific Northwest, Hawaii, Iceland, India and Japan, basalts may offer the only economically feasible option for local CO2 storage. However, there are limited field-scale assessments of CO2 storage in basalt, and current carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) permitting and regulatory frameworks were developed for conventional saline reservoirs. HERO CarbonSAFE is designed to address research gaps and uncertainties associated with basalt storage. Specifically, the project will assess the feasibility of CO2 injection in the deep layered basalts, long-term storage (mineralization), practical approaches for large-scale implementation (50+ million metric tons of CO2 over 30 years), lithology-specific risks, and the technoeconomic potential for CO2 storage in basalts. The HERO CarbonSAFE project will assess feasibility of developing a commercial-scale (50+ million metric tons of CO2) geological storage complex within the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG), a layered continental flood basalt complex that underlies Calpine’s natural gas-fired Hermiston Power Project (HPP) in Hermiston, OR (Figure 1). Under this 2-year CarbonSAFE Phase II project, the HERO team will conduct a data acquisition campaign that includes drilling a stratigraphic well to a total depth of ~1,500 m into the thick layered basalts proximal to HPP. A comprehensive well logging and hydrologic testing program will be augmented with new core collected from flow zones and sealing units, and comprehensive laboratory testing to help refine the kinetic rates of mineralization. The newly acquired information will be integrated with existing data from regional wells to correlate basalt injection zone properties to develop storage hub/commercial-scale models. Using these models, the project team will evaluate injection scenarios to define the technical and economic potential for storing a minimum of 50 million metric tons of CO2 over a 30-year period, along with a robust sensitivity analysis on key parameters governing reservoir viability for sustainable injection over a commercial project lifetime. Specific technical objectives of HERO are: (1) assessing the reservoir response of a series of stacked layered reservoir flowtop sequences occurring in this area of the CRBG to commercial-scale injection volumes; (2) extending prior efforts by the project team to characterize the deep layered basalts encountered in regional studies, to leverage prior investments by U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Carbon Storage program; (3) leveraging DOE’s mineralization characterization efforts to advance model parametrization for commercial scale injection of CO2 in basalts; (4) conducting risk assessments associated with scaling up to commercial storage hub injection goals, while validating DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) tools, to identify potential constraints that would prevent the CRBG from serving as a commercial-scale storage complex; (5) developing mitigation plans to address identified risks; (6) developing a commercial-scale injection and monitoring, verification and accounting (MVA) strategy; (7) utilizing computational models to define and minimize, if possible, the Area of Review (AoR) under Class VI regulations; and (8) developing a robust CO2 management strategy for CRBG that also considers a regional source/sink approach that is responsive to stakeholder needs and industrial demand. Specific institutional objectives are: (1) identifying and developing plans to mitigate the nontechnical challenges associated with the build-out of a commercial-scale storage complex within the CRBG with integrated CO2 sources; (2) implementing the community outreach plan; (3) conducting regulatory research, including a survey of issues related to pore space ownership, MVA and long-term assurance of mineralization-based storage, to support an eventual application for a UIC Class VI permit; (4) advancing the project’s plan for CO2 liability management; and (5) continuing to refine and update the project’s economic model. The final objective is the preparation of a comprehensive Site Characterization Plan that draws upon the technical and institutional feasibility assessments to prepare the project for future commercialization efforts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Hero Carbonsafe Phase 2 Project in the Columbia River Basalt Group: Technical Program Overview

The Hermiston, Oregon Basalt CarbonSAFE Phase II project (HERO CarbonSAFE) seeks to accelerate the deployment of commercial carbon dioxide (CO2) storage projects in basaltic rocks. Hermiston is located near the center of the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG), which is one of the largest basalt flows in the US. Basalt CO2 storage has potential advantages to conventional saline storage reservoirs including 1. The potential for rapid mineralization of CO2, 2. associated decreases in pressure and CO2 migration risks, 3. reduced long-term monitoring requirements with respect to plume tracking, 4. widespread geographic distribution and, 5. large storage potential due to thickness, porosity, and CO2 interactions with basalt. For locations such as the Pacific Northwest (PNW), Hawaii, Iceland, India and Japan, whose localities are isolated from large sedimentary basins offering conventional saline storage options, basalt may offer the only feasible option for local CO2 storage. However, mineralization/basalt storage still has many uncertainties, as there are limited field-scale assessments of CO2 storage in basalt. There are significant uncertainties hindering the effective implementation of carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) in basalt. These include the lack of proven storage capacities, challenges in methodologies for modeling the area of review in igneous formations, limited understanding of mineralization kinetics and timing, and uncertainties in injectivity. Additionally, the domestic availability of specialized services and drilling expertise is constrained, and existing CCUS permitting and regulatory frameworks, originally developed for conventional saline reservoirs, may not adequately address the unique requirements of basalt systems. HERO CarbonSAFE is designed to address major research gaps and uncertainties associated with basalt storage. Specifically, the project will assess the feasibility of CO2 injection in the deep layered basalts of the CRBG, long-term storage (mineralization), practical approaches for large-scale implementation (50+ million metric tons of CO2 over 30 years), lithology-specific risks, and the technoeconomic potential for CO2 storage in basalts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An iodine hypersonic wind tunnel for the study of nonequilibrium reacting flows

A pilot scale hypersonic wind tunnel operating on pure iodine vapor has been designed and tested. The wind tunnel operates intermittently with a run phase lasting approximately 20 minutes. Successful recirculation of the iodine used during the run phase has been achieved but can be improved. Relevant issues regarding the full scale facility's design and operation, and the use of iodine as a working gas are discussed. Continuous wave laser induced fluorescence was used to monitor number densities within the plume flowfield, while pulsed laser induced fluorescence was used in an initial attempt to measure vibrational energy state population distributions. Preliminary nozzle flow calculations based on finite rate chemistry are presented.

Pham-Van-diep, G. C.↗

Remote sensing of coastal environmental hazards

Examples of the application of NOAA High Resolution Picture Transmission (HRPT) data to natural hazards and disasters are reviewed. The examples discussed include flooding of the Ganges River Delta; detecting effects of salt water intrusion into freshwater marshes; detecting fires, smoke plumes, and oil slicks; and monitoring of ocean currents and eddies. The present limitations of the HRPT data and future prospects are briefly discussed.

Huh, Oscar K.↗

Some Sources of Contaminants in the Shuttle Bay Measured with Temperature-Controlled Quartz Crystal Microbalances (TQCM)

The sources of molecular deposits on a Temperature-Controlled Quartz Crystal Microbalance (TQCM) attached to the shuttle bay wall at some distance from the payload and pointing out of the bay have been investigated. Explored as possible sources are: (1) the outgassing of the shuttle tiles treated with the water proofing di-methyl-ethoxy-silane (DMES) compound, scattered back by the ambient molecules into the bay; (2) The ambient scattered return flux of the outgassing, from the RTV 560 silicone which is used as the adhesive for the tiles; (3) the ambient scattered return flux of the payload outgassing; (4) the return C, flux from outgassing source originating near, below, or adjacent to the package containing the TQCM; and (5) the self-scattering of venting plumes and outgassing above the monitor package depositing on the TQCM. In all of these sources, the magnitudes of the outgassing, of the leakage rates, and venting had to be estimated in the absence of data. The resulting analyses which can be useful for similar investigations, indicates that the outgassin- from the tiles, the RTV, the payloads, or the shuttle may not have been the sources of the deposit (about 1 micro g/cm(sup 2) during a the period from bay door opening and payload release from the bay). It appears more probable that the origin is the self- and/or ambient-scattered return fluxes originating near, below, or internal to the monitor package.

Scialdone, John J.↗

Eyeing the Invisible

Resulting from a Space Act Agreement with the Kennedy Space Center, Midac Corporation developed software improvements on monitoring equipment for vapor concentration spectroscopy. The commercial software package has aided in effective fence line monitoring of industrial facilities, rocket plume analysis, volcanic emissions analysis, as well as helped to avoid contamination in semiconductor manufacturing.

Source record↗

Planning for Plume Diagnostics for Ground Testing of J-2X Engines at the SSC

John C. Stennis Space Center (SSC) is the premier test facility for liquid rocket engine development and certification for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Therefore, it is no surprise that the SSC will play the most prominent role in the engine development testing and certification for the J-2X engine. The Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne J-2X engine has been selected by the Constellation Program to power the Ares I Upper Stage Element and the Ares V Earth Departure Stage in NASA s strategy of risk mitigation for hardware development by building on the Apollo program and other lessons learned to deliver a human-rated engine that is on an aggressive development schedule, with first demonstration flight in 2010 and human test flights in 2012. Accordingly, J-2X engine design, development, test, and evaluation is to build upon heritage hardware and apply valuable experience gained from past development and testing efforts. In order to leverage SSC s successful and innovative expertise in the plume diagnostics for the space shuttle main engine (SSME) health monitoring,1-10 this paper will present a blueprint for plume diagnostics for various proposed ground testing activities for J-2X at SSC. Complete description of the SSC s test facilities, supporting infrastructure, and test facilities is available in Ref. 11. The A-1 Test Stand is currently being prepared for testing the J-2X engine at sea level conditions. The A-2 Test Stand is currently being used for testing the SSME and may also be used for testing the J-2X engine at sea level conditions in the future. Very recently, ground-breaking ceremony for the new A-3 rocket engine test stand took place at SSC on August 23, 2007. A-3 is the first large - scale test stand to be built at the SSC since the A and B stands were constructed in the 1960s. The A-3 Test Stand will be used for testing J-2X engines under vacuum conditions simulating high altitude operation at approximately 30,480 m (100,000 ft). To achieve the simulated altitude environment, chemical steam generators using isopropyl alcohol, LOX, and RELEASED - Printed documents may be obsolete; validate prior to use. water would run for the duration of the test and would generate approximately 2096 Kg/s of steam to reduce pressure in the test cell and downstream of the engine. The testing at the A-3 Test Stand is projected to begin in late 2010, meanwhile the J-2X component testing on A-1 is scheduled to begin later this year.

SaintCyr, William W.↗

Exploiting OMI NO2 Satellite Observations to Infer Fossil-fuel CO2 Emissions from U.S. Megacities

Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions and their trends in eight U.S. megacities during 2006–2017 are inferred by combining satellite-derived NOX emissions with bottom-up city-specific NOX-to-CO2 emission ratios. A statistical model is fit to a collection NO2 plumes observed from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), and is used to calculate top-down NOX emissions. Decreases in OMI-derived NOX emissions are observed across the eight cities from 2006 to 2017 (−17% in Miami to −58% in Los Angeles), and are generally consistent with long-term trends of bottom-up inventories (−25% in Miami to −49% in Los Angeles), but there are some interannual discrepancies. City-specific NOX-to-CO2 emission ratios, used to calculate inferred CO2, are estimated through annual bottom-up inventories of NOX and CO2 emissions disaggregated to 1 × 1 km2 resolution. Over the study period, NOX-to-CO2 emission ratios have decreased by ~40% nationwide (−24% to −51% for our studied cities), which is attributed to a faster reduction in NOX when compared to CO2 due to policy regulations and fuel type shifts. Combining top-down NOX emissions and bottom-up NOX-to-CO2 emission ratios, annual fossil-fuel CO2 emissions are derived. Inferred OMI-based top-down CO2 emissions trends vary between +7% in Dallas to −31% in Phoenix. For 2017, we report annual fossil-fuel CO2 emissions to be: Los Angeles 113 ± 49 Tg/yr; New York City 144 ± 62 Tg/yr; and Chicago 55 ± 24 Tg/yr. A study in the Los Angeles area, using independent methods, reported a 2013–2016 average CO2 emissions rate of 104 Tg/yr and 120 Tg/yr, which suggests that the CO2 emissions from our method are in good agreement with other studies' top-down estimates. We anticipate future remote sensing instruments – with better spatial and temporal resolution – will better constrain the NOX-to-CO2 ratio and reduce the uncertainty in our method.

Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)↗