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At least 109 records · Page 6

Regional Studies and Applications with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid Data Assimilation System

The variable resolution stretched grid (SG) version of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS) incorporating the GEOS SG-GCM, is used for regional analysis, forecast, and climate applications. The region of interest with enhanced horizontal resolution, mostly used in experiments, is a rectangle over the U.S. The SG-DAS is capable of reproducing regional mesoscale fields, patterns and diagnostics that are not produced by the medium uniform resolution run with the same amount of grid points as for the SG. The SG-DAS regional analyses and diagnostics are used for: validation of regional climate simulation experiments produced with the SG-GCM for the U.S. 1988 summer drought; and are planned to be used for atmospheric chemistry transport experiments. Also, a case study is conducted on a super-typhoon development in December 1997. The SG-DAS appears to be a viable candidate for a variety of regional studies and applications.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael↗

A comparison between GO/aperture-field and physical-optics methods for offset reflectors

Both geometrical optics (GO)/aperture-field and physical-optics (PO) methods are used extensively in the diffraction analysis of offset parabolic and dual reflectors. An analytical/numerical comparative study is performed to demonstrate the limitations of the GO/aperture-field method for accurately predicting the sidelobe and null positions and levels. In particular, it is shown that for offset parabolic reflectors and for feeds located at the focal point, the predicted far-field patterns (amplitude) by the GO/aperture-field method will always be symmetric even in the offset plane. This, of course, is inaccurate for the general case and it is shown that the physical-optics method can result in asymmetric patterns for cases in which the feed is located at the focal point. Representative numerical data are presented and a comparison is made with available measured data.

Rahmat-Samii, Y.↗

A Segmentation Algorithm for Characterizing Rise and Fall Segments in Seasonal Cycles: An Application to XCO2 to Estimate Benchmarks and Assess Model Bias

There is more useful information in the time series of satellite-derived column-averaged carbon dioxide (XCO2) than is typically characterized. Often, the entire time series is treated at once without considering detailed features at shorter timescales, such as nonstationary changes in signal characteristics – amplitude, period and phase. In many instances, signals are visually and analytically differentiable from other portions in a time series. Each rise (increasing) and fall (decreasing) segment in the seasonal cycle is visually discernable in a graph of the time series. The rise and fall segments largely result from seasonal differences in terrestrial ecosystem production, which means that the segment's signal characteristics can be used to establish observational benchmarks because the signal characteristics are driven by similar underlying processes. We developed an analytical segmentation algorithm to characterize the rise and fall segments in XCO2 seasonal cycles. We present the algorithm for general application of the segmentation analysis and emphasize here that the segmentation analysis is more generally applicable to cyclic time series. We demonstrate the utility of the algorithm with specific results related to the comparison between satellite- and model-derived XCO2 seasonal cycles (2009–2012) for large bioregions across the globe. We found a seasonal amplitude gradient of 0.74–0.77 ppm for every 10∘ of latitude in the satellite data, with similar gradients for rise and fall segments. This translates to a south–north seasonal amplitude gradient of 8 ppm for XCO2, about half the gradient in seasonal amplitude based on surface site in situ CO2 data (∼19 ppm). The latitudinal gradients in the period of the satellite-derived seasonal cycles were of opposing sign and magnitude (−9 d per 10∘ latitude for fall segments and 10 d per 10∘ latitude for rise segments) and suggest that a specific latitude (∼2∘ N) exists that defines an inversion point for the period asymmetry. Before (after) the point of asymmetry inversion, the periods of rise segments are lesser (greater) than the periods of fall segments; only a single model could reproduce this emergent pattern. The asymmetry in amplitude and the period between rise and fall segments introduces a novel pattern in seasonal cycle analyses, but, while we show these emergent patterns exist in the data, we are still breaking ground in applying the information for science applications. Maybe the most useful application is that the segmentation analysis allowed us to decompose the model biases into their correlated parts of biases in amplitude, period and phase independently for rise and fall segments. We offer an extended discussion on how such information about model biases and the emergent patterns in satellite-derived seasonal cycles can be used to guide future inquiry and model development.

Calle, Leonardo↗

A Segmentation Algorithm for Characterizing Rise and Fall Segments in Seasonal Cycles: an Application to Xco2 to Estimate Benchmarks and Assess Model Bias

There is more useful information in the time series of satellite-derived column-averaged carbon dioxide (XCO2) than is typically characterized. Often, the entire time series is treated at once without considering detailed features at shorter timescales, such as nonstationary changes in signal characteristics – amplitude, period and phase. In many instances, signals are visually and analytically differentiable from other portions in a time series. Each rise (increasing) and fall (decreasing) segment in the seasonal cycle is visually discernable in a graph of the time series. The rise and fall segments largely result from seasonal differences in terrestrial ecosystem production, which means that the segment's signal characteristics can be used to establish observational benchmarks because the signal characteristics are driven by similar underlying processes. We developed an analytical segmentation algorithm to characterize the rise and fall segments in XCO2 seasonal cycles. We present the algorithm for general application of the segmentation analysis and emphasize here that the segmentation analysis is more generally applicable to cyclic time series. We demonstrate the utility of the algorithm with specific results related to the comparison between satellite- and model-derived XCO2 seasonal cycles (2009–2012) for large bioregions across the globe. We found a seasonal amplitude gradient of 0.74–0.77 ppm for every 10∘ of latitude in the satellite data, with similar gradients for rise and fall segments. This translates to a south–north seasonal amplitude gradient of 8 ppm for XCO2, about half the gradient in seasonal amplitude based on surface site in situ CO2 data (∼19 ppm). The latitudinal gradients in the period of the satellite-derived seasonal cycles were of opposing sign and magnitude (−9 d per 10∘ latitude for fall segments and 10 d per 10∘ latitude for rise segments) and suggest that a specific latitude (∼2∘ N) exists that defines an inversion point for the period asymmetry. Before (after) the point of asymmetry inversion, the periods of rise segments are lesser (greater) than the periods of fall segments; only a single model could reproduce this emergent pattern. The asymmetry in amplitude and the period between rise and fall segments introduces a novel pattern in seasonal cycle analyses, but, while we show these emergent patterns exist in the data, we are still breaking ground in applying the information for science applications. Maybe the most useful application is that the segmentation analysis allowed us to decompose the model biases into their correlated parts of biases in amplitude, period and phase independently for rise and fall segments. We offer an extended discussion on how such information about model biases and the emergent patterns in satellite-derived seasonal cycles can be used to guide future inquiry and model development.

segmentation algorithm↗

Pilot usage of decoupled flight path and pitch controls

Data from decoupled flight maneuvers have been collected and analyzed for four AFTI-F-16 pilots operating this aircraft's highly augmented fly-by-wire control system, in order to obtain spectral density, cross spectra, and Bode amplitude data, as well as coherences and phase angles for the two longitudinal axis control functions of each of 50 20-sec epochs. The analysis of each epoch yielded five distinct plotted parameters for the left hand twist grip and right hand sidestick controller output time series. These two control devices allow the left hand to generate vertical translation, direct lift, or pitch-pointing commands that are decoupled from those of the right hand. Attention is given to the control patterns obtained for decoupled normal flight, air-to-air gun engagement decoupled maneuvering, and decoupled air-to-surface bombing run maneuvering.

Berkhout, J.↗

Calculating Effects of Reflector-Antenna Distortions

Mathematical numerical model accurately predicts effects of systematic distortions on radiation pattern of reflector antenna. Techniques for predicting radiation patterns developed previously for reflectors with perfect surfaces and surfaces with random deviations from perfection. New model treats reflectors distorted by thermal, gravitational, and dynamic effects. Diffraction analysis of reflector antenna depends on interpolation of surface description for farfield radiation integral. Local interpolation scheme uses bicubic or higher order polynomial approximation of surface to express desired surface point in terms of nearby known surface points.

Rahmat-Samii, Y.↗

In situ observations of ClO in the wintertime Northern Hemisphere: ER-2 aircraft results from 21 N to 61 N latitude

Measurements of lower stratospheric ClO taken during a NASA ER-2 flight between Moffett Field, CA (37 N, 122 W) and Great Slave Lake, Canada (61 N, 116 W) on 13 February 1988 are reported. Northbound, the aircraft was flown at about 20 km altitude from 39 N to 56 N, at 18 km from there to 58 N, in a descent to 15 km at 60 N, and in a rise and turn at the northernmost point. The southbound leg was flown in a gradual climb from 20 km to 21.5 km. On this day, the central position of the Arctic polar vortex, as determined by an NMC analysis of heights and temperatures at the 50 mb and 70 mb levels, was approximately 79 N, 100 W. Because the vortex was located on the North American side of the pole, the aircraft was able to reach a point slightly inside the maximum horizontal wind region where wind speeds were 80 to 90 knots. The general pattern for the observed ClO is that it increased with both latitude and altitude, and attained a maximum of about 55 pptv at 61 N latitude and 20.5 km altitude. This value is about 20 times smaller than the maxima observed over Antarctica, but is comparable to those seen just outside the chemical containment vessel located inside the Antarctic Polar vortex. On the other hand, in a comparison with northern midlatitude data taken on this and three other February flights, ClO mixing ratios observed north of 55 N latitude are 2 to 5 times larger at all flight altitudes (15 to 20 km). Possible reasons are discussed for this enhancement over midlatitude and the evidence is considered for whether or not the instruments sampled Arctic polar vortex air. A second feature of the data is the strong positive correlation between ClO and O3 during the entire flight.

Brune, W. H.↗

Analysis of EUVE Experiment Results

A series of tests to validate an antenna pointing concept for spin-stabilized satellites using a data relay satellite are described. These tests show that proper antenna pointing on an inertially-stabilized spacecraft can lead to significant access time through the relay satellite even without active antenna pointing. We summarize the test results, the simulations to model the effects of antenna pattern and space loss, and the expected contact times. We also show how antenna beam width affects the results.

Horan, Stephen↗

Ten Years of Land Cover Change on the California Coast Detected using Landsat Satellite Image Analysis

Landsat satellite imagery was analyzed to generate a detailed record of 10 years of vegetation disturbance and regrowth for Pacific coastal areas of Marin and San Francisco Counties. The Landsat Ecosystem Disturbance Adaptive Processing System (LEDAPS) methodology, a transformation of Tasseled-Cap data space, was applied to detected changes in perennial coastal shrubland, woodland, and forest cover from 1999 to 2009. Results showed several principal points of interest, within which extensive contiguous areas of similar LEDAPS vegetation change (either disturbed or restored) were detected. Regrowth areas were delineated as burned forest areas in the Point Reyes National Seashore (PRNS) from the 1995 Vision Fire. LEDAPS-detected disturbance patterns on Inverness Ridge, PRNS in areas observed with dieback of tanoak and bay laurel trees was consistent with defoliation by sudden oak death (Phytophthora ramorum). LEDAPS regrowth pixels were detected over much of the predominantly grassland/herbaceous cover of the Olema Valley ranchland near PRNS. Extensive restoration of perennial vegetation cover on Crissy Field, Baker Beach and Lobos Creek dunes in San Francisco was identified. Based on these examples, the LEDAPS methodology will be capable of fulfilling much of the need for continual, low-cost monitoring of emerging changes to coastal ecosystems.

Land Cover Change↗

Validation of Ozone Profile Retrievals Derived from the OMPS LP Version 2.5 Algorithm Against Correlative Satellite Measurements

The Limb Profiler (LP) is a part of the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite launched on board of the Suomi NPP satellite in October 2011. The LP measures solar radiation scattered from the atmospheric limb in ultraviolet and visible spectral ranges between the surface and 80 km. These measurements of scattered solar radiances allow for the retrieval of ozone profiles from cloud tops up to 55 km. The LP started operational observations in April 2012. In this study we evaluate more than 5.5 years of ozone profile measurements from the OMPS LP processed with the new NASA GSFC version 2.5 retrieval algorithm. We provide a brief description of the key changes that had been implemented in this new algorithm, including a pointing correction, new cloud height detection, explicit aerosol correction and a reduction of the number of wavelengths used in the retrievals. The OMPS LP ozone retrievals have been compared with independent satellite profile measurements obtained from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) and Odin Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imaging System (OSIRIS). We document observed biases and seasonal differences and evaluate the stability of the version 2.5 ozone record over 5.5 years. Our analysis indicates that the mean differences between LP and correlative measurements are well within required +/- 10% between 18 and 42 km. In the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere (>43 km) LP tends to have a negative bias. We find larger biases in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere, but LP ozone retrievals have significantly improved in version 2.5 compared to version 2 due to the implemented aerosol correction. In the northern high latitudes we observe larger biases between 20 and 32 km due to the remaining thermal sensitivity issue. Our analysis shows that LP ozone retrievals agree well with the correlative satellite observations in characterizing vertical, spatial and temporal ozone distribution associated with natural processes, like the seasonal cycle and quasi-biennial oscillations. We found a small positive drift approx. 0.5%/yr in the LP ozone record against MLS and OSIRIS that is more pronounced at altitudes above 35 km. This pattern in the relative drift is consistent with a possible 100m drift in the LP sensor pointing detected by one of our altitude-resolving methods.

Ozone Mapping↗

NASA Numerical and Experimental Evaluation of UTRC Low Emissions Injector

Computational and experimental analyses of a PICS-Pilot-In-Can-Swirler technology injector, developed by United Technologies Research Center (UTRC) are presented. NASA has defined technology targets for near term (called "N+1", circa 2015), midterm ("N+2", circa 2020) and far term ("N+3", circa 2030) that specify realistic emissions and fuel efficiency goals for commercial aircraft. This injector has potential for application in an engine to meet the Pratt & Whitney N+3 supersonic cycle goals, or the subsonic N+2 engine cycle goals. Experimental methods were employed to investigate supersonic cruise points as well as select points of the subsonic cycle engine; cruise, approach, and idle with a slightly elevated inlet pressure. Experiments at NASA employed gas analysis and a suite of laser-based measurement techniques to characterize the combustor flow downstream from the PICS dump plane. Optical diagnostics employed for this work included Planar Laser-Induced Fluorescence of fuel for injector spray pattern and Spontaneous Raman Spectroscopy for relative species concentration of fuel and CO2. The work reported here used unheated (liquid) Jet-A fuel for all fuel circuits and cycle conditions. The initial tests performed by UTRC used vaporized Jet-A to simulate the expected supersonic cruise condition, which anticipated using fuel as a heat sink. Using the National Combustion Code a PICS-based combustor was modeled with liquid fuel at the supersonic cruise condition. All CFD models used a cubic non-linear k-epsilon turbulence wall functions model, and a semi-detailed Jet-A kinetic mechanism based on a surrogate fuel mixture. Two initial spray droplet size distribution and spray cone conditions were used: (1) an initial condition (Lefebvre) with an assumed Rosin-Rammler distribution, and 7 degree Solid Spray Cone; and (2) the Boundary Layer Stripping (BLS) primary atomization model giving the spray size distribution and directional properties. Contour and line plots are shown in comparison with experimental data (where this data is available) for flow velocities, fuel, and temperature distribution. The CFD results are consistent with experimental observations for fuel distribution and vaporization. Analysis of gas sample results, using a previously-developed NASA NOx correlation, indicates that for sea-level takeoff, the PICS configuration is predicted to deliver an EINOx value of about three for the targeted supersonic aircraft. Emissions results at supersonic cruise conditions show potential for meeting the NASA goals with liquid fuel.

Hicks, Yolanda R.↗

NASA Numerical and Experimental Evaluation of UTRC Low Emissions Injector

Computational and experimental analyses of a PICS-Pilot-In-Can-Swirler technology injector, developed by United Technologies Research Center (UTRC) are presented. NASA has defined technology targets for near term (called "N+1", circa 2015), midterm ("N+2", circa 2020) and far term ("N+3", circa 2030) that specify realistic emissions and fuel efficiency goals for commercial aircraft. This injector has potential for application in an engine to meet the Pratt & Whitney N+3 supersonic cycle goals, or the subsonic N+2 engine cycle goals. Experimental methods were employed to investigate supersonic cruise points as well as select points of the subsonic cycle engine; cruise, approach, and idle with a slightly elevated inlet pressure. Experiments at NASA employed gas analysis and a suite of laser-based measurement techniques to characterize the combustor flow downstream from the PICS dump plane. Optical diagnostics employed for this work included Planar Laser-Induced Fluorescence of fuel for injector spray pattern and Spontaneous Raman Spectroscopy for relative species concentration of fuel and CO2. The work reported here used unheated (liquid) Jet-A fuel for all fuel circuits and cycle conditions. The initial tests performed by UTRC used vaporized Jet-A to simulate the expected supersonic cruise condition, which anticipated using fuel as a heat sink. Using the National Combustion Code a PICS-based combustor was modeled with liquid fuel at the supersonic cruise condition. All CFD models used a cubic non-linear k-epsilon turbulence wall functions model, and a semi-detailed Jet-A kinetic mechanism based on a surrogate fuel mixture. Two initial spray droplet size distribution and spray cone conditions were used: 1) an initial condition (Lefebvre) with an assumed Rosin-Rammler distribution, and 7 degree Solid Spray Cone; and 2) the Boundary Layer Stripping (BLS) primary atomization model giving the spray size distribution and directional properties. Contour and line plots are shown in comparison with experimental data (where this data is available) for flow velocities, fuel, and temperature distribution. The CFD results are consistent with experimental observations for fuel distribution and vaporization. Analysis of gas sample results, using a previously-developed NASA NOx correlation, indicates that for sea-level takeoff, the PICS configuration is predicted to deliver an EINOx value of about 3 for the targeted supersonic aircraft. Emissions results at supersonic cruise conditions show potential for meeting the NASA goals with liquid fuel.

Hicks, Yolanda R.↗

Decision Aid for Conjunction Risk Mitigation by Differential Drag

In the previous five years, the rate of conjunctions that the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team processed and analyzed has more than tripled. (NASA CARA, 2024) New missions in the early development phases are now required to plan for dealing with conjunctions under the present space environment, and also projecting forward into a future likely with even further increased utilization of the space environment. Some missions are investigating the possibility of using differential drag to remediate conjunctions without expending limited fuel or for missions without propulsive capabilities. The NASA CARA team studied the historical record of conjunctions to evaluate the circumstances under which differential drag may be successfully applied and have developed a series of tables to use as a decision aid for missions considering differential drag. Currently, if a CARA-protected mission with maneuvering capabilities is predicted to have a conjunction with probability of collision (Pc) greater than 7E-5 (the default value of the ‘yellow threshold’, which may have some other value agreed by CARA and the mission during the Orbital Collison Avoidance Planning (OCAP) process), CARA will use its Maneuver Trade Space (MTS) tool to evaluate and recommend options for the timing and magnitude of a risk mitigation maneuver (RMM), based on the mission’s capabilities. If the conjunction’s Pc is greater than 1E-4, the ‘red threshold’, then an RMM must be executed per NASA Procedural Requirements (NPR) 8079.1 (NASA, 2023), although missions may execute an RMM even if the Pc is lower. The magnitude of the maneuver is typically a few cm/s, and CARA estimates how many will be required for the mission’s nominal lifetime – typically a few per year – during the OCAP process, to inform the mission’s delta-V requirement. For traditional satellites, this is usually smaller than other requirements for orbit insertion, maintenance, and disposal, but for CubeSats or other small satellite missions, a propulsion system may not provide much more than a few cm/s of delta-V or may not fit at all within the available budget of money, time, size, weight, and/or power (SWaP). Conversely, CubeSats often have deployable solar panels, which offer the capacity to have much higher areas facing some directions than others. Such a mission can instead use ‘differential drag’ to remediate a conjunction -- in other words, change its drag area (usually increasing) to deviate from the predicted collision course. This is how Planet’s Dove spacecraft maintain their formations and remediate conjunction risks without having on-board propulsion (Foster, et al., 2017) (Griffith, et al., 2021). CARA has been developing improvements to MTS to support differential-drag for NASA's missions -- where it is effective. CARA records all conjunctions of their protected payloads, with historical records starting in 2005 (with significant conjunction events starting to occur on or after 2013). From this record, approximately 7,300 had a Pc greater than 1E-4 at 3 days prior to the time of closest approach, the time analyzed for differential drag efficacy. Of those, approximately 4,300 had fully-defined covariance matrices stored for both the primary and secondary objects; this set of conjunctions is the basis for the analysis of this work. CARA’s MTS tool was used to propagate the primary satellite forward from that decision point with varying degrees of increase to ballistic coefficient (BC). Because these conjunctions came from multiple missions, the nondimensional ‘delta-BC’ factor was used to quantify and normalize the increase in ballistic coefficient, defined as follows: Delta-BC = BC_new / BC_old - 1 Positive delta-BC factors represent an increase in drag compared to the nominal attitude, while negative delta-BC factors (to a minimum of -1) represent a decrease in drag. At the conclusion of the differential-drag ‘maneuver’, the Pc was recalculated to evaluate whether or not the conjunction was mitigated (Pc < 3E-6). These results were then binned and sorted along several axes, including altitude, amount of delta-BC, and (pre-maneuver) rate of energy dissipation (EDR), to identify underlying patterns. The altitude plot is shown in Figure 1. To validate this analysis, we consulted the record of a NASA mission which uses differential drag to maintain its orbit and remediate conjunction risk. CARA’s empirical record of the mission’s orbit history suggests it achieves a delta-BC of 2.2. Of the twenty-one RMM plans that were submitted by this mission, eighteen were matched with conjunctions in the historical record; of those, twelve were successfully remediated (final measured Pc < 3E-6), and six were not. This is consistent with the expected efficacy for missions orbiting at that altitude. We are presently simulating this mission’s RMMs with MTS; this work is ongoing, but so far, the MTS results are qualitatively in agreement with the empirical results -- correctly predicting that a maneuver would or would not remediate a conjunction, if not exactly matching the final post-remediation Pc value. We found that differential drag was most successful for satellites with perigees below 560 km, and which could adopt an average delta-BC of 2 or greater (that is, increasing their ballistic coefficient by a factor of 3). However, this is a difficult threshold for a mission to clear; very few spacecraft are capable of adopting a high-drag configuration for 72 hours continuously. Planet’s Dove spacecraft use differential drag to remediate conjunctions (Griffith, et al., 2021), and they have a maximum delta-BC factor of 9, but in practice (with mission and charging constraints) they achieve a time-averaged delta-BC that is closer to 2 (Foster, et al., 2017). A mission’s differential drag utility strongly depends on the operational constraints that has the capacity to limit the time-averaged delta-BC. A mission with a high maximum delta-BC of 5 or more can have an effective delta-BC of less than 1 due to operational constraints such as instrument and solar panel pointing, especially if this constraint results in holding an intermediate drag value for most of its orbit. CARA has developed tables that can be used as decision aids to advise missions-in-development about the best way to utilize their differential drag capabilities. For missions below 560 km with the operational flexibility to devote multiple days to holding a high-drag configuration (or a sufficiently high drag ratio to compensate for limitations on that time), they are -- more likely than not -- able to successfully remediate high-risk conjunctions. Conversely, missions that do not meet these exacting criteria -- most missions -- can instead be advised to use on-board propulsion systems to perform RMMs, or to turn their minimum-area face towards the approach vector, thereby reducing Pc at the moment of conjunction due to the decreased Hard-Body Radius (HBR), that is a strongly correlated variable in the Pc calculations. (NASA, 2023)

conjunction assessment↗

Geometric error analysis for shuttle imaging spectrometer experiment

The demand of more powerful tools for remote sensing and management of earth resources steadily increased over the last decade. With the recent advancement of area array detectors, high resolution multichannel imaging spectrometers can be realistically constructed. The error analysis study for the Shuttle Imaging Spectrometer Experiment system is documented for the purpose of providing information for design, tradeoff, and performance prediction. Error sources including the Shuttle attitude determination and control system, instrument pointing and misalignment, disturbances, ephemeris, Earth rotation, etc., were investigated. Geometric error mapping functions were developed, characterized, and illustrated extensively with tables and charts. Selected ground patterns and the corresponding image distortions were generated for direct visual inspection of how the various error sources affect the appearance of the ground object images.

Wang, S. J.↗

System Sensitivity Analysis Applied to the Conceptual Design of a Dual-Fuel Rocket SSTO

This paper reports the results of initial efforts to apply the System Sensitivity Analysis (SSA) optimization method to the conceptual design of a single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) launch vehicle. SSA is an efficient, calculus-based MDO technique for generating sensitivity derivatives in a highly multidisciplinary design environment. The method has been successfully applied to conceptual aircraft design and has been proven to have advantages over traditional direct optimization methods. The method is applied to the optimization of an advanced, piloted SSTO design similar to vehicles currently being analyzed by NASA as possible replacements for the Space Shuttle. Powered by a derivative of the Russian RD-701 rocket engine, the vehicle employs a combination of hydrocarbon, hydrogen, and oxygen propellants. Three primary disciplines are included in the design - propulsion, performance, and weights & sizing. A complete, converged vehicle analysis depends on the use of three standalone conceptual analysis computer codes. Efforts to minimize vehicle dry (empty) weight are reported in this paper. The problem consists of six system-level design variables and one system-level constraint. Using SSA in a 'manual' fashion to generate gradient information, six system-level iterations were performed from each of two different starting points. The results showed a good pattern of convergence for both starting points. A discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of the method, possible areas of improvement, and future work is included.

Olds, John R.↗

In-Situ Measurement of Hall Thruster Erosion Using a Fiber Optic Regression Probe

One potential life-limiting mechanism in a Hall thruster is the erosion of the ceramic material comprising the discharge channel. This is especially true for missions that require long thrusting periods and can be problematic for lifetime qualification, especially when attempting to qualify a thruster by analysis rather than a test lasting the full duration of the mission. In addition to lifetime, several analytical and numerical models include electrode erosion as a mechanism contributing to enhanced transport properties. However, there is still a great deal of dispute over the importance of erosion to transport in Hall thrusters. The capability to perform an in-situ measurement of discharge channel erosion is useful in addressing both the lifetime and transport concerns. An in-situ measurement would allow for real-time data regarding the erosion rates at different operating points, providing a quick method for empirically anchoring any analysis geared towards lifetime qualification. Erosion rate data over a thruster s operating envelope would also be useful in the modeling of the detailed physics inside the discharge chamber. There are many different sensors and techniques that have been employed to quantify discharge channel erosion in Hall thrusters. Snapshots of the wear pattern can be obtained at regular shutdown intervals using laser profilometry. Many non-intrusive techniques of varying complexity and sensitivity have been employed to detect the time-varying presence of erosion products in the thruster plume. These include the use quartz crystal microbalances, emission spectroscopy, laser induced flourescence, and cavity ring-down spectroscopy. While these techniques can provide a very accurate picture of the level of eroded material in the thruster plume, it is more difficult to use them to determine the location from which the material was eroded. Furthermore, none of the methods cited provide a true in-situ measure of erosion at the channel surface while the thruster is in operation (i.e. none yield a continuous channel erosion measurement). A recent fundamental sensor development effort has led to a novel regression, erosion, and ablation sensor technology (REAST). The REAST sensor allows for measurement of real-time surface erosion rates at a discrete surface location. The sensor was tested using a linear Hall thruster geometry (see Fig. 1), which served as a means of producing plasma erosion of a ceramic discharge chamber. The mass flow rate, discharge voltage, and applied magnetic field strength could be varied, allowing for erosion measurements over a broad thruster operating envelope. Results are presented demonstrating the ability of the REAST sensor to capture not only the insulator erosion rates but also changes in these rates as a function of the discharge parameters.

Polzin, Kurt↗

Comprehensive Analysis of Thirty Years of Land Change in Georgia: Forest Degradation, Land-Use Patterns, and Drivers

In this talk, we present results from a study, funded by the NASA Land-Cover and Land-Use Change program, of thirty years of environmental change in the country of Georgia. The country, a former Soviet Union Republic, has experienced more political, economic and social change in the last 30 years than most countries. But the environmental implications of these extreme events remain largely unknown – the region is understudied, no national forest inventory has been completed in 20 years, and previous research in the area conducted by the authors were not successful. The latter statement is because of forest degradation. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, much of the forestry infrastructure broke down and people resorted to chopping down individual trees. The result was in many parts of the country a reduction in forest biomass but not to the point of a change in land cover. This type of forest degradation, which was either gradual over decades or abrupt, could not be readily identified using the methods and data at our disposal at the time. In the recent study, we had full access to the Landsat archive in combination with computing power. By using monitoring methods that are based on time series analysis, we were able to capture and identify the gradual processes driven by small scale activities that are so characteristic of the post-Soviet Georgian landscape. We developed an approach (“CCDC-SMA”) that combines time series analysis and spectral mixture analysis running on Google Earth Engine for monitoring abrupt and gradual forest degradation. By using this approach, we found that forest degradation was significantly larger than the area estimate of deforestation; 3,541 ± 556 km2 (11% of the forest area in 1987) compared to 158 ± 98 km2 from 1987 to 2020. The prevailing narrative is that legal and illegal cutting of trees for fuelwood is primarily responsible for this process. Yet, since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, the country has undergone rapid socioeconomic and institutional changes which have not been explored as drivers of forest change. To further our understanding of the underlying causes, we combined forest disturbance estimates, Georgian statistical data, and historical institutional change data to examine socioeconomic drivers of forest degradation. We found that higher winter temperature and drought were associated with higher degradation at the regional scale, while major institutional changes and drought were associated with higher forest degradation at the national level. Access to natural gas, the major energy alternative to fuelwood, had no significant association with degradation. Our results challenge the narrative that poverty and a lack of alternative energy infrastructure drive forest degradation and suggest that government policies banning household fuelwood cutting, including the new Forest Code of 2020, may not reduce forest degradation. Given these results, improved data on wood harvesting and more research on the commercial drivers of degradation and their links to economic and political reforms is needed to better inform forest policy in the region, especially given ongoing risks from climate change.

Pontus Olofsson↗

Empirical orthogonal functions and multiple flow regimes in the Southern Hemisphere winter

A new empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of winter 500 mb geopotential height anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere is presented. An earlier EOF analysis prefiltered the anomalies to exclude wavenumbers 5 and higher; the present analysis does not. The different preprocessing of data affects the results. All three distinct planetary flow regimes identified in the winter circulation of the Southern Hemisphere by a pattern correlation method are captured by the new set of EOFs; only two of those regimes were captured by the earlier set. The new results, therefore, lend further support to the idea that EOFs point to distinct planetary flow regimes.

Farrara, John D.↗