Flux Comparison of Master-8 and ORDEM 3.1 Modelled Space Debris Population
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Andre Horstmann↗
SEARCH · Search NASA
Results for “Population modeling”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Models of the quasar population. II - The effects of dust obscuration
A model for dust obscuration is proposed to account for the apparent lack of high-redshift quasars which are assumed to be obscured by dust in intervening galaxies. The distribution function for the optical depth as a function of redshift is constructed and used to determine the expected properties of quasars. The apparent magnitude distribution at three points is used to fit the model. Optical results are given for the comoving number density, redshift distribution, and mean color excess. If the theory is correct, evidence for dust may be seen in quasar spectra and a correlation between quasar continuum slopes and strength of metal line absorption systems should be observed.
Heisler, Julia↗
Comparison of Two Statistical Models for Low Boom Dose-response Relationships with Correlated Responses
This study compares two statistical models to construct summary dose-response curves for low boom community noise surveys. Data from two NASA field surveys are used that consist of multiple responses per survey participant. These data require an approach that accounts for the correlation among repeated annoyance observations from the same participant. A multilevel model accounts for the correlation by allowing estimated parameters to vary with each survey participant. On the other hand, a population average model utilizes generalized estimating equations and accounts for the correlation via a userspecified within-subject correlation structure. A visual comparison of the dose-response curves for these two methods reveals similar results. When comparing specific points along the summary curves, the multilevel model yields more precise confidence bounds than the population average model. The similarity between the summary curves derived from each model lends validity to both approaches for approximating a population representative summary curve, though modeling assumptions may lend favor to the multilevel logistic modeling approach over the population average model.
dose-response↗
A model of the trapped electron population for solar minimum
A model is presented of the trapped electron environment of solar minimum conditions. Solar maximum models have been presented for the inner radiation zone (AE-5 1967), and for the outer radiation zone (AE-4 1967). The present solar minimum model consists of an inner zone model (AE-5 1975 Projected) with an epoch of 1975, and an outer zone model with an epoch of 1964. With only minor modifications this latter model is identical to the AE-4 1964 model presented previous. The model, however, has not previously been issued in computer form. AE-4 1964 is based upon satellite data, while the inner zone solar minimum model AE-5 1975 Projected consists entirely of extrapolations from AE-5 1967. While the two components of the solar minimum model have epochs 11 years part, it is assumed that any differences between the successive solar minima are smaller than the model error, and the complete model is associated with an epoch of 1975.
Teague, M. J.↗
Population Viability Analysis (PVA) as a Platform for Predicting Outcomes of Management Options for the Florida Scrub-Jay in Brevard County
The Florida scrub-jay (FSJ) is a species in decline because of extinction debt caused by habitat fragmentation and degradation. Understanding and managing the species and its habitats is challenging due to the complex interactions among the social system, a dynamic mosaic of scrub habitat, and active management. To provide insights into the possible fates of the FSJ populations of mainland, cape, and island sections of Brevard County, we modeled the population dynamics using the Vortex population viability analysis (PVA) software. Vortex is an individual-based simulation that allowed us to include such factors as demographic rates dependent on habitat state, impact of helpers on breeding success, and helper to breeder transition probabilities responding to availability of nearby vacant optimal habitat and vacancies due to the death of breeders. Detailed modeling of the FSJ was possible only because a lot of data about the species and its habitats have been gathered over decades of intensive research. We followed a phased approach to constructing population models that incorporated the best available science and data to address a variety of conservation actions. The first phase focused on constructing a model that incorporates sociobiology and source-sink habitat dynamics. This model allowed us to address some of the most important questions about population size and habitat quality. Once the model framework was in place, we considered the real landscapes and actual local populations, rather than just generic representations of typical FSJ dynamics. After examining the viability of the metapopulations under current conditions, we explored the likely consequences of various management actions that might slow or reverse population declines.
Population Viability Analysis↗
Comparing Two Statistical Models for Low Boom Dose-response Relationships with Correlated Responses
This study compares two statistical modeling approaches to construct summary dose-response curves for low boom community noise surveys. NASA field survey data were used that consist of multiple responses from a survey participant. These data require an approach that accounts for the correlation among repeated annoyance observations from the same participant. A multilevel model accounts for the correlation by allowing estimated parameters to vary with each survey participant. On the other hand, a population average model utilizes generalized estimating equations and accounts for the correlation via a user-specified within-subject correlation structure. A visual comparison of the dose-response curves for these two methods reveals similar results. When comparing specific points along the summary curves, the multilevel model yields more precise confidence bounds than the population average model. The similarity between the summary curves derived from each model lends validity to both approaches for approximating a population representative summary curve.
X-59↗
Spectroscopy of candidate young globular clusters in NGC 1275
We present spectra of the brightest member of the population of compact blue objects discovered in the peculiar galaxy NGC 1275 by Holtzman et al. (1992) using Hubble Space Telescope images. These spectra show strong Balmer absorption lines like those observed in A-type stars, as expected if the object is a young globular cluster. The age estimated from the strength of the Balmer lines is about 0.5 Gyr, although ages ranging from 0.1 Gyr to 0.9 Gyr cannot be confidently excluded given current models of stellar populations. If these estimated ages are adopted for the young cluster population of NGC 1275 as a whole, the fading predicted by stellar populations models gives a luminosity function which is consistent with that of the Galactic globular cluster system convolved with the observational selection function for the NGC 1275 system. We also use the equivalent widths of the Mg b and Fe 5270 features to constrain the metallicity of the young cluster. Combining these absorption-line widths with the age estimates from the Balmer lines and stellar population models, we find a metallicity of roughly solar, based on the Mg b index, and somewhat higher for the Fe 5270 index. The radial velocity of the absorption lines of the cluster spectrum is offset from the emission lines of the galaxy spectrum at the same position by - 130 km/s, providing further evidence for the identification of the object as a global cluster and opening up the future possibility of studying the kinematics of young cluster systems. The discovery of objects with the characteristics of young globular clusters in NGC 1275, which shows evidence of a recent interaction or merger, supports the hypothesis that galaxy interactions and mergers are favorable sites for the formation of globular clusters.
Zepf, Stephen E.↗
Conceptual design and feasibility evaluation model of a 10 to the 8th power bit oligatomic mass memory. Volume 2: Feasibility evaluation model
The partially populated oligatomic mass memory feasibility model is described and evaluated. A system was desired to verify the feasibility of the oligatomic (mirror) memory approach as applicable to large scale solid state mass memories.
Horst, R. L.↗
Modeling of the Orbital Debris Population of RORSAT Sodium-Potassium Droplets
A large population resident in the orbital debris environment is composed of eutectic sodium-potassium (NaK) droplets, released during the reactor core ejection of 16 nuclear-powered Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellites (RORSATs) launched in the 1980s by the former Soviet Union. These electrically conducting RORSAT debris objects are spherical in shape, generating highly polarized radar returns. Their diameters are mostly in the centimeter and millimeter size regimes. Since the Space Surveillance Network catalog is limited to objects greater than 5 cm in low Earth orbit, our current knowledge about this special class of orbital debris relies largely on the analysis of Haystack radar data. This paper elaborates the simulation of the RORSAT debris populations in the new NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM2010, which replaces ORDEM2000. The estimation of the NaK populations uses the NASA NaK-module as a benchmark. It follows the general statistical approach to developing all other ORDEM2010-required LEO populations (for various types of debris and across a wide range of object sizes). This paper describes, in detail, each major step in the NaK-population derivation, including a specific discussion on the conversion between Haystack-measured radar-cross-sections and object-size distribution for the NaK droplets. Modeling results show that the RORSAT debris population is stable for the time period under study and that Haystack data sets are fairly consistent over the observations of multiple years.
Xu, Y.-L.↗
Constraining Gamma-Ray Pulsar Gap Models with a Simulated Pulsar Population
With the large sample of young gamma-ray pulsars discovered by the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT), population synthesis has become a powerful tool for comparing their collective properties with model predictions. We synthesised a pulsar population based on a radio emission model and four gamma-ray gap models (Polar Cap, Slot Gap, Outer Gap, and One Pole Caustic). Applying gamma-ray and radio visibility criteria, we normalise the simulation to the number of detected radio pulsars by a select group of ten radio surveys. The luminosity and the wide beams from the outer gaps can easily account for the number of Fermi detections in 2 years of observations. The wide slot-gap beam requires an increase by a factor of 10 of the predicted luminosity to produce a reasonable number of gamma-ray pulsars. Such large increases in the luminosity may be accommodated by implementing offset polar caps. The narrow polar-cap beams contribute at most only a handful of LAT pulsars. Using standard distributions in birth location and pulsar spin-down power (E), we skew the initial magnetic field and period distributions in a an attempt to account for the high E Fermi pulsars. While we compromise the agreement between simulated and detected distributions of radio pulsars, the simulations fail to reproduce the LAT findings: all models under-predict the number of LAT pulsars with high E , and they cannot explain the high probability of detecting both the radio and gamma-ray beams at high E. The beaming factor remains close to 1.0 over 4 decades in E evolution for the slot gap whereas it significantly decreases with increasing age for the outer gaps. The evolution of the enhanced slot-gap luminosity with E is compatible with the large dispersion of gamma-ray luminosity seen in the LAT data. The stronger evolution predicted for the outer gap, which is linked to the polar cap heating by the return current, is apparently not supported by the LAT data. The LAT sample of gamma-ray pulsars therefore provides a fresh perspective on the early evolution of the luminosity and beam width of the gamma-ray emission from young pulsars, calling for thin and more luminous gaps.
Pierbattista, Marco↗
Anthropometry and Biomechanics Facility Presentation to Open EVA Research Forum
NASA is required to accommodate individuals who fall within a 1st to 99th percentile range on a variety of critical dimensions. The hardware the crew interacts with must therefore be designed and verified to allow these selected individuals to complete critical mission tasks safely and at an optimal performance level. Until now, designers have been provided simpler univariate critical dimensional analyses. The multivariate characteristics of intra-individual and inter-individual size variation must be accounted for, since an individual who is 1st percentile in one body dimension will not be 1st percentile in all other dimensions. A more simplistic approach, assuming every measurement of an individual will fall within the same percentile range, can lead to a model that does not represent realistic members of the population. In other words, there is no '1st percentile female' or '99th percentile male', and designing for these unrealistic body types can lead to hardware issues down the road. Furthermore, due to budget considerations, designers are normally limited to providing only 1 size of a prototype suit, thus requiring other possible means to ensure that a given suit architecture would yield the necessary suit sizes to accommodate the entire user population. Fortunately, modeling tools can be used to more accurately model the types of human body sizes and shapes that will be encountered in a population. Anthropometry toolkits have been designed with a variety of capabilities, including grouping the population into clusters based on critical dimensions, providing percentile information given test subject measurements, and listing measurement ranges for critical dimensions in the 1st-99th percentile range. These toolkits can be combined with full body laser scans to allow designers to build human models that better represent the astronaut population. More recently, some rescaling and reposing capabilities have been developed, to allow reshaping of these static laser scans in more representative postures, such as an abducted shoulder. All of the hardware designed for use with the crew must be sized to accommodate the user population, but the interaction between subject size and hardware fit is complicated with multi-component, complex systems like a space suit. Again, prototype suits are normally only provided in a limited size range, and suited testing is an expensive endeavor; both of these factors limit the number and size of people who can be used to benchmark a spacesuit. However, modeling tools for assessing suit-human interaction can allow potential issues to be modeled and visualized. These types of modeling tools can be used for analysis of a larger combination of anthropometries and hardware types than could feasibly be done with actual human subjects and physical mockups.
Rajulu, Sudhakar↗
The NuSTAR Extragalactic Surveys: The Number Counts Of Active Galactic Nuclei And The Resolved Fraction Of The Cosmic X-ray Background
We present the 3-8 kiloelectronvolts and 8-24 kiloelectronvolts number counts of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) identified in the Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR) extragalactic surveys. NuSTAR has now resolved 33 percent -39 percent of the X-ray background in the 8-24 kiloelectronvolts band, directly identifying AGNs with obscuring columns up to approximately 10 (exp 25) per square centimeter. In the softer 3-8 kiloelectronvolts band the number counts are in general agreement with those measured by XMM-Newton and Chandra over the flux range 5 times 10 (exp -15) less than or approximately equal to S (3-8 kiloelectronvolts) divided by ergs per second per square centimeter less than or approximately equal to 10 (exp -12) probed by NuSTAR. In the hard 8-24 kiloelectronvolts band NuSTAR probes fluxes over the range 2 times 10 (exp -14) less than or approximately equal to S (8-24 kiloelectronvolts) divided by ergs per second per square centimeter less than or approximately equal to 10 (exp -12), a factor approximately 100 times fainter than previous measurements. The 8-24 kiloelectronvolts number counts match predictions from AGN population synthesis models, directly confirming the existence of a population of obscured and/or hard X-ray sources inferred from the shape of the integrated cosmic X-ray background. The measured NuSTAR counts lie significantly above simple extrapolation with a Euclidian slope to low flux of the Swift/BAT15-55 kiloelectronvolts number counts measured at higher fluxes (S (15-55 kiloelectronvolts) less than or approximately equal to 10 (exp -11) ergs per second per square centimeter), reflecting the evolution of the AGN population between the Swift/BAT local (redshift is less than 0.1) sample and NuSTAR's redshift approximately equal to 1 sample. CXB (Cosmic X-ray Background) synthesis models, which account for AGN evolution, lie above the Swift/BAT measurements, suggesting that they do not fully capture the evolution of obscured AGNs at low redshifts
nucle↗
Modeling of asteroidal dust production rates
The production rate of dust associated with the prominent Hirayama asteroid families and the background asteroidal population are modeled with the intent of using the families as a calibrator of mainbelt dust production. However, the dust production rates of asteroid families may be highly stochastic; there is probably more than an order of magnitude variation in the total area of dust associated with a family. Over 4.5 x 10(exp 9) years of collisional evolution, the volume (mass) of a family is ground down by an order of magnitude, suggesting a similar loss from the entire mainbelt population. Our collisional models show that the number of meteoroids deliverable to Earth also varies stochastically, but only by a factor of 2 to 3.
Durda, Daniel D.↗
Models of the quasar population. I - A new luminosity function
A new functional form for the quasar luminosity function is tested using recent observational results for both bright and faint quasar count and redshift distributions. The form is of a fairly general type based on three free parameters and allows for quasars to undergo a combination of luminosity evolution and luminosity-dependent density evolution; an advantage to this approach is that it does not constrain quasars to follow a single type of evolution. Models of pure luminosity evolution or luminosity-dependent density evolution can be constructed, but the apparent magnitude distribution of observed quasars is best fitted by a combination model. The combination model also gives the correct redshift distribution for quasars with redshifts less than three and predicts that quasars brighter than B = 22 provide a 2-10 keV X-ray flux that is equal to 32 percent of the observed X-ray background. However, the model is flawed in that it predicts more high-redshift quasars than are observed.
Heisler, Julia↗
Modeling the Redshift Evolution of the Normal Galaxy X-Ray Luminosity Function
Emission from X-ray binaries (XRBs) is a major component of the total X-ray luminosity of normal galaxies, so X-ray studies of high-redshift galaxies allow us to probe the formation and evolution of XRBs on very long timescales (approximately 10 Gyr). In this paper, we present results from large-scale population synthesis models of binary populations in galaxies from z = 0 to approximately 20. We use as input into our modeling the Millennium II Cosmological Simulation and the updated semi-analytic galaxy catalog by Guo et al. to self-consistently account for the star formation history (SFH) and metallicity evolution of each galaxy. We run a grid of 192 models, varying all the parameters known from previous studies to affect the evolution of XRBs. We use our models and observationally derived prescriptions for hot gas emission to create theoretical galaxy X-ray luminosity functions (XLFs) for several redshift bins. Models with low common envelope efficiencies, a 50% twins mass ratio distribution, a steeper initial mass function exponent, and high stellar wind mass-loss rates best match observational results from Tzanavaris & Georgantopoulos, though they significantly underproduce bright early-type and very bright (L(sub x) greater than 10(exp 41)) late-type galaxies. These discrepancies are likely caused by uncertainties in hot gas emission and SFHs, active galactic nucleus contamination, and a lack of dynamically formed low-mass XRBs. In our highest likelihood models, we find that hot gas emission dominates the emission for most bright galaxies. We also find that the evolution of the normal galaxy X-ray luminosity density out to z = 4 is driven largely by XRBs in galaxies with X-ray luminosities between 10(exp 40) and 10(exp 41) erg s(exp −1).
Tremmel, M.↗
Astronaut Bone Medical Standards Derived from Finite Element (FE) Models of QCT Scans from Population Studies
This work was accomplished in support of the Finite Element [FE] Strength Task Group, NASA Johnson Space Center [JSC], Houston, TX. This group was charged with the task of developing rules for using finite-element [FE] bone-strength measures to construct operating bands for bone health that are relevant to astronauts following exposure to spaceflight. FE modeling is a computational tool used by engineers to estimate the failure loads of complex structures. Recently, some engineers have used this tool to characterize the failure loads of the hip in population studies that also monitored fracture outcomes. A Directed Research Task was authorized in July, 2012 to investigate FE data from these population studies to derive these proposed standards of bone health as a function of age and gender. The proposed standards make use of an FE-based index that integrates multiple contributors to bone strength, an expanded evaluation that is critical after an astronaut is exposed to spaceflight. The current index of bone health used by NASA is the measurement of areal BMD. There was a concern voiced by a research and clinical advisory panel that the sole use of areal BMD would be insufficient to fully evaluate the effects of spaceflight on the hip. Hence, NASA may not have a full understanding of fracture risk, both during and after a mission, and may be poorly estimating in-flight countermeasure efficacy. The FE Strength Task Group - composed of principal investigators of the aforementioned population studies and of FE modelers -donated some of its population QCT data to estimate of hip bone strength by FE modeling for this specific purpose. Consequently, Human Health Countermeasures [HHC] has compiled a dataset of FE hip strengths, generated by a single FE modeling approach, from human subjects (approx.1060) with ages covering the age range of the astronauts. The dataset has been analyzed to generate a set of FE strength cutoffs for the following scenarios: a) Qualify an applicant for astronaut candidacy, b) Qualify an astronaut for a long-duration (LD) mission, c) Qualify a veteran LD astronaut for a second LD mission, and d) Establish a non-permissible, minimum hip strength following a given mission architecture. This abstract will present the FE-based standards accepted by the FE Strength Task Group for its recommendation to HHC in January 2015.
Sibonga, J. D.↗
Meteorological limits on the growth and development of screwworm populations
A program to evaluate the use of remotely sensed data as an additional tool in existing and projected efforts to eradicate the screwworm began in 1973. Estimating weather conditions by use of remotely sensed data was part of the study. Next, the effect of weather on screwworm populations was modeled. A significant portion of the variation in screwworm population growth and development has been traced to weather-related parameters. This report deals with the salient points of the weather and the screwworm population interaction.
Phinney, D. E.↗
A bounce-averaged kinetic model of the ring current ion population
A bounced-averaged ring current kinetic model for arbitrary pitch angle, including losses due to charge exchange and Coulomb collisions along ion drift paths, is developed and solved numerically. Results from simplifield model runs, intended to illustrate the effects of adiabatic drifts and collisional losses on the proton population, are presented. The processes of: (1) particle acceleration under the conditions of time-independent magnetospheric electric fields; (2) a predominant loss of particles with small pitch angles due to charge exchange; and (3) a buildup of a low-energy population caused by the Coulomb drag energy degradation, are discussed.
Jordanova, V. K.↗