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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

The value of hydropower flexibility for electricity system decarbonization

Hydropower is an abundant, dispatchable, clean energy resource that will play an important role in supporting the clean energy transition. In particular, dispatchable hydropower can provide the operational flexibility that will be required in future systems with high variable renewable energy penetrations. However, the theoretical operational flexibility of hydropower can be restricted in practice by various non-power constraints. In this paper, we quantify how increasing the operational flexibility of dispatchable hydropower resources with reservoirs impacts least-cost generation portfolios and supports power system decarbonization. Specifically, we conduct a capacity expansion analysis of a two-zone system: a hydro-dominated region and a neighboring region with aggressive decarbonization targets that are represented by the United States Pacific Northwest and California respectively. We then introduce a quantifiable index for characterizing the operational flexibility of reservoir hydropower and assess how changes in this metric impact the system-optimal generation portfolio. We find that increasing hydropower flexibility leads to more investment in wind generation, less investment in natural gas generation, lower system costs, and lower system emissions. We further demonstrate a substitution effect between the grid services provided by flexible hydropower operation, increased transmission capacity on a congested line, and energy storage resources. Finally, we show that increasing the operational flexibility of hydropower increases the effective load carrying capability of both hydropower and wind resources. This research supports a more nuanced understanding of how hydropower can support electricity system decarbonization and may motivate reassessing the cost-benefit tradeoffs of non-power constraints that restrict operational flexibility.

Capacity expansion modeling↗
DOE OSTI2020

Additional Capacity Value From Synergy of Variable Renewable Energy and Energy Storage

Current capacity markets often consider capacity credits from each resource independently, irrespective of the portfolio of resources, potentially overvaluing or undervaluing the capacity contribution of variable renewable energy (VRE) and energy storage (ES) in the grid. We propose a method for calculating the standalone and integrated capacity value of an added VRE resource with existing ES resources. The difference between the integrated and standalone value is the portfolio effect. This is the additional capacity value gained by the synergy of VRE and the existing fleet. Using chronological dispatch simulations and two different reliability metrics to estimate firm capacity, we demonstrate on a small test system that the portfolio effect can be substantial.

capacity credit↗
NASA NTRS2004

"ATLAS" Advanced Technology Life-cycle Analysis System

Making good decisions concerning research and development portfolios-and concerning the best systems concepts to pursue - as early as possible in the life cycle of advanced technologies is a key goal of R&D management This goal depends upon the effective integration of information from a wide variety of sources as well as focused, high-level analyses intended to inform such decisions Life-cycle Analysis System (ATLAS) methodology and tool kit. ATLAS encompasses a wide range of methods and tools. A key foundation for ATLAS is the NASA-created Technology Readiness. The toolkit is largely spreadsheet based (as of August 2003). This product is being funded by the Human and Robotics The presentation provides a summary of the Advanced Technology Level (TRL) systems Technology Program Office, Office of Exploration Systems, NASA Headquarters, Washington D.C. and is being integrated by Dan O Neil of the Advanced Projects Office, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL

Lollar, Louis F.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimal energy storage portfolio for high and ultrahigh carbon-free and renewable power systems

Achieving 100% carbon-free or renewable power systems can be facilitated by the deployment of energy storage technologies at all timescales, including short-duration, long-duration, and seasonal scales; however, most current literature focuses on cost assessments of energy storage for a given timescale or type of technology. In this work, we use an optimization framework with high spatial and temporal resolution to simultaneously assess the variable renewable power deployment and the optimal storage portfolio for seven independent system operators in the United States. Results indicate that achieving high (75–90%) and ultrahigh (>90%) energy mixes requires combining several flexibility options, including renewable curtailment, short-duration, long-duration, and seasonal storage. For instance, carbon-free and renewable energy mix targets of up to 80% are achieved with economic curtailment and a combination of short- and long-duration energy storage for the performance and cost assumptions used. After that, there is a point between 80% and 95% where seasonal storage becomes cost-competitive, depending on the specific power system. Moreover, our results indicate that storage-to-storage operation—one storage device used to charge another storage device—and the decoupling of charging and discharging storage power capacity are cost-effective options for the integration of high and ultrahigh shares of carbon-free or renewable power sources. Additionally, the results from this study show that an 85% carbon-free or renewable energy mix can be achieved at a cost of avoided CO 2 emissions of US$66.0 per tonne or less, regardless of the power system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hybrid Energy Systems: Opportunities for Coordinated Research

This chapter presents a baseline assessment of DOE’s current portfolio related to hybrid systems that produce electricity as their only output (Track 1), within the context of the key challenges facing these systems. Of particular importance is that this chapter is focused on understanding what makes a hybrid different from two standalone technologies, both in terms of the research being performed and the challenges that ongoing and planned research will seek to overcome. The purpose of summarizing and describing current research areas is to identify opportunities DOE could consider supporting in the near term. DOE encompasses several offices, each of which has unique objectives and is financially constrained. Additionally, the emergence of low-cost hybrid resources presents an array of new opportunities for the electricity sector, including better managing and allocating risk, improving operating performance, reducing system costs, and enhancing reliability and resilience. Realizing these opportunities will require overcoming barriers to the deployment of hybrids through targeted R&D which multiple DOE offices can invest in and benefit from.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Decision-Dependent Uncertainty-Aware Distribution System Planning Under Wildfire Risk

The interaction between power systems and wildfires can be dangerous and costly. Distribution grids can be liable for the outbreak of wildfires during extreme weather. In wildfire-prone areas, investment planning should consider the impact of operational actions on wildfire-related uncertainties affecting line failure likelihood. Here, in this case, endogenous-based uncertainty modeling should comprise the backbone of the investment planning model viz-a-viz the inability of standard exogenous-based uncertainty modeling. Therefore, we propose a decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU) aware methodology to optimize investment portfolios for distribution systems, considering that high power-flow levels in high-threat areas can ignite wildfires and increase line failure probability. The methodology identifies the best combination of upgrades (new lines, hardening existing lines, and placing switching devices). Methodologically, we propose a two-stage distributionally robust planning optimization problem with DDU that considers the distribution system's multiperiod operation. The first stage determines optimal switching actions and line investments, and the second stage evaluates the worst-case expected operational cost under a DDU framework designed to account for the endogenous impact of power-flow levels and hardening investment decisions in the line failure probabilities. An iterative method is tailored to handle the problem and numerical experiments demonstrate a more prepared grid to deal with wildfire risk.

Power systems investment planning↗
NASA NTRS2012

NASA Tech Briefs, March 2012

The topics include: 1) Spectral Profiler Probe for In Situ Snow Grain Size and Composition Stratigraphy; 2) Portable Fourier Transform Spectroscopy for Analysis of Surface Contamination and Quality Control; 3) In Situ Geochemical Analysis and Age Dating of Rocks Using Laser Ablation-Miniature Mass Spectrometer; 4) Physics Mining of Multi-Source Data Sets; 5) Photogrammetry Tool for Forensic Analysis; 6) Connect Global Positioning System RF Module; 7) Simple Cell Balance Circuit; 8) Miniature EVA Software Defined Radio; 9) Remotely Accessible Testbed for Software Defined Radio Development; 10) System-of-Systems Technology-Portfolio-Analysis Tool; 11) VESGEN Software for Mapping and Quantification of Vascular Regulators; 12) Constructing a Database From Multiple 2D Images for Camera Pose Estimation and Robot Localization; 13) Adaption of G-TAG Software for Validating Touch and Go Asteroid Sample Return Design Methodology; 14) 3D Visualization for Phoenix Mars Lander Science Operations; 15) RxGen General Optical Model Prescription Generator; 16) Carbon Nanotube Bonding Strength Enhancement Using Metal Wicking Process; 17) Multi-Layer Far-Infrared Component Technology; 18) Germanium Lift-Off Masks for Thin Metal Film Patterning; 19) Sealing Materials for Use in Vacuum at High Temperatures; 20) Radiation Shielding System Using a Composite of Carbon Nanotubes Loaded With Electropolymers; 21) Nano Sponges for Drug Delivery and Medicinal Applications; 22) Molecular Technique to Understand Deep Microbial Diversity; 23) Methods and Compositions Based on Culturing Microorganisms in Low Sedimental Fluid Shear Conditions; 24) Secure Peer-to-Peer Networks for Scientific Information Sharing; 25) Multiplexer/Demultiplexer Loading Tool (MDMLT); 26) High-Rate Data-Capture for an Airborne Lidar System; 27) Wavefront Sensing Analysis of Grazing Incidence Optical Systems; 28) Foam-on-Tile Damage Model; 29) Instrument Package Manipulation Through the Generation and Use of an Attenuated-Fluent Gas Fold; 30) Multicolor Detectors for Ultrasensitive Long-Wave Imaging Cameras; 31) Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Command and Data Handling Flight Electronics Subsystem; and 32) Electro-Optic Segment-Segment Sensors for Radio and Optical Telescopes.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy storage in combined gas-electric energy transitions models: The case of California

California’s vision for a net-zero future by 2045 relies heavily on variable renewable energy systems. Thus, energy storage - particularly long-duration storage - could play a fundamental role in reliably supplying low-carbon electricity. We study energy storage using the BRIDGES model, a combined gas-electric capacity expansion model for California across multiple investment periods (2025-2045), modeled with progressively decreasing carbon emission targets to a zero emissions by 2045. This least-cost optimization model includes renewable gas production via power-to-gas, long-term storage of energy in gaseous form, electric energy storage such as through batteries and hydrogen storage, and renewable energy generation, all with capacity tracking and investment. Multiple scenarios are evaluated to examine the sensitivity of the optimal storage portfolio to system-level and sector-level parameters. The scenario results show that all electric energy storage systems - which vary in storage duration - are deployed and required in a net-zero California in 2045, amounting to around 75 GW of storage capacity. Lithium ion systems make up approximately 80% of this power capacity and supply most short-run storage needs. Hydrogen storage - in the form of a power-to-gas-to-power system - emerges as a replacement to conventional natural gas storage, comprising most of the total energy storage capacity (~ 4 TWh). This capacity is less than 5% of the current natural gas storage capacity (94 TWh), indicating sufficient room for repurposing part of the gas infrastructure. A demand-side sensitivity analysis proves that higher electricity demand correlates with more builds of Li-ion batteries, while higher industrial heat demand leads to more builds of long-duration storage systems in a net-zero economy. Furthermore, power-to-gas systems satisfy part of the industrial heat demand by locally supplying renewable gas, which overtakes the traditional centralized gas storage and transfers through pipelines, casting significant doubts on the future of the large-scale gas infrastructure.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Human System Risk Communication: Directed Acyclic Graphs

- The Human System Risk Board (HSRB) is responsible for the management of a portfolio of 30 human system risks that NASA tracks and configuration manages to mitigate for future crewed exploration missions. - The HSRB has been exploring the concept of causal diagrams (in the form of Directed Acyclic Graphs or DAGs) as an approach to creating knowledge graphs for each risk to enable shared mental models of causal flow from spaceflight hazards to mission outcomes among HSRB Stakeholders. - These diagrams are intended to improve insight and communication of risk across the myriad subject matter experts and management interested in human system risk reduction. This includes program managers, systems engineers, and operators in addition to the Human Health and Performance Directorate. - The DAG project was intended to create the foundation for composition of the 30 baselined DAGs into a single risk network and software is being developed in parallel to enable this forward work.

directed acrylic graph↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quinonoid versus Aromatic π-Conjugated Oligomers and Polymers and Their Diradical Characters

Quinonoid elements in π-conjugated oligomers and polymers have promising characteristics by providing unique structures and electronic properties, including varying degrees of ground state open shell diradical character and small band gaps. So far, quinonoid ground state polymers were rarely identified, and one of the goals of this work was to expand the portfolio of such systems in which over 17 different repeat units were considered, about half preferred a quinonoid and half preferred aromatic structures plus several with the alternating A-Q composition were also included. The dependency of the diradical character as a function of size and composition opens a rich space to discover trends affecting the aromaticity and diradical character. Herein, we show that the diradical character is a useful parameter to classify a wide variety of polymers based on their ground states in a systematic study of a large number of homo- and heterosystems. Homo-polymers with quinonoid ground states show a high diradical character, while those with the aromatic ground state behave as closed-shell systems with no or a very small diradical character. The diradical character of quinonoid systems depends strongly on the size, which increases with the size of the oligomer. Here, we found a correlation between the diradical character and the interring C–C distance as well as the singlet–triplet energy gaps. In alternating copolymers mixing quinonoid and aromatic subunits, we found open-shell hetero-polymers with moderate to high diradical characters.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cost-Effectiveness of Local Distribution Tied Solar within KyMEA

KyMEA is a Kentucky joint action agency which provides electric transmission and energy services to eleven municipal utilities. One of KyMEA's member cities, Frankfort, has set a goal to reach 100% renewable generation for the city load by 2023 and 100% carbon free city operations and 100% renewable generation community-wide by 2030. The aim of this research was to determine if the Frankfort city government could reduce its power costs by implementing distribution tied solar while also avoiding any cross subsidization between other KyMEA member utilities or other Frankfort Plant Board customers. The project simulated the KyMEA generation portfolio and transmission system from KyMEA's cost perspective using the NREL Engage capacity expansion model. Running in operate mode, the authors used Engage to compare KyMEA's costs to operate the baseline system to its costs to operate the system with Frankfort meeting some of its load with distribution-tied PV. The cost perspective of Frankfort Plant Board, meanwhile, was simulated using Python. The simulations indicated that it would be cost-beneficial to KyMEA, i.e., that no additional costs would be borne by other members, and that it would be cost-neutral to Frankfort Plant Board for Frankfort city government to implement distribution tied utility-scale PV. The new load attributes resulting from the distribution-tied PV lowered KyMEA's cost to serve load by improving system load factor, reducing system transmission and energy costs, and increasing revenues from market energy sales.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Least-cost Optimal Distribution Grid Expansion (LODGE): Utility Pilots

The Least-cost Optimal Distribution Grid Expansion (LODGE) model provides the optimal portfolio of distribution system upgrades—e.g., voltage regulators, feeder reconductoring, transformer upgrades and non-wires alternatives (NWA), such as strategic siting of storage and distributed generation—to interconnect distributed energy resources (DERs) and enable load growth. It can be used to assess grid infrastructure costs and explore policy and regulatory solutions for distribution planning and DER valuation.In 2025, Berkeley Lab conducted three pilot analyses to validate LODGE results with empirical utility data before the model’s first release in 2026. The pilots, done with utilities in Washington, Colorado, and New Mexico, provide examples that illustrate how the model works, what it can do, and the value of the analysis.

Heleno, Miguel↗
NASA NTRS2004

Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS)

Developing credible mass and cost estimates for space exploration and development architectures require multidisciplinary analysis based on physics calculations, and parametric estimates derived from historical systems. Within the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), concurrent engineering environment (CEE) activities integrate discipline oriented analysis tools through a computer network and accumulate the results of a multidisciplinary analysis team via a centralized database or spreadsheet Each minute of a design and analysis study within a concurrent engineering environment is expensive due the size of the team and supporting equipment The Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS) reduces the cost of architecture analysis by capturing the knowledge of discipline experts into system oriented spreadsheet models. A framework with a user interface presents a library of system models to an architecture analyst. The analyst selects models of launchers, in-space transportation systems, and excursion vehicles, as well as space and surface infrastructure such as propellant depots, habitats, and solar power satellites. After assembling the architecture from the selected models, the analyst can create a campaign comprised of missions spanning several years. The ATLAS controller passes analyst specified parameters to the models and data among the models. An integrator workbook calls a history based parametric analysis cost model to determine the costs. Also, the integrator estimates the flight rates, launched masses, and architecture benefits over the years of the campaign. An accumulator workbook presents the analytical results in a series of bar graphs. In no way does ATLAS compete with a CEE; instead, ATLAS complements a CEE by ensuring that the time of the experts is well spent Using ATLAS, an architecture analyst can perform technology sensitivity analysis, study many scenarios, and see the impact of design decisions. When the analyst is satisfied with the system configurations, technology portfolios, and deployment strategies, he or she can present the concepts to a team, which will conduct a detailed, discipline-oriented analysis within a CEE. An analog to this approach is the music industry where a songwriter creates the lyrics and music before entering a recording studio.

O'Neil, Daniel A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

University Coalition for Fossil Fuel Energy Research

Following a nationwide open competition, the University Coalition for Fossil Energy Research (UCFER) was established in October 2015 through a cooperative agreement between Penn State and the Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). Penn State lead UCFER with the objective of advancing basic and applied research for clean and low-carbon energy based on fossil fuels in support of the DOE’s mission. UCFER focused on research that improves the efficiency of production and use of fossil energy resources, while minimizing the environmental impacts and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Penn State lead a team of nine universities (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, The Pennsylvania State University, Princeton University, Texas A&M University, University of Kentucky, University of Southern California, The University of Tulsa, University of Wyoming, and Virginia Polytechnic and State University) during the competition stage, adding seven more universities in 2017 (Carnegie Mellon University, Louisiana State University, The Ohio State University, University of North Dakota, University of Pittsburgh, University of Utah, and West Virginia University). This Coalition exhibited a wide geographical distribution across the U.S. bringing a wide variety of fossil energy expertise. This national university alliance was a major collaborative effort with NETL to address specific topics of R&D in NETL’s mission area, which involved one or more of NETL’s five core competencies (Geologic and Environmental Systems, Materials Engineering and Manufacturing, Energy Conversion Engineering, Systems Engineering and Analysis, and Computational Science and Engineering). The first five to six months of the project was the definitization stage. During this period, Penn State worked closely with NETL to finalize the Coalition organizational structure and By- Laws, prepare a statement of substantial involvement and a statement of project objectives, and develop operations and membership plans. A major component of this stage included preparing an execution plan to solicit research, evaluate proposals, recommend selected projects to NETL, and award projects. In addition, a plan was prepared to monitor projects, review projects, disseminate knowledge from research projects and develop an online system for Coalition research portfolio management. This included developing a website and several databases. The first of six rounds of solicitations started in mid-2016. Projects from the sixth solicitation started February 1, 2021, and ended January 31, 2023. Projects that were selected represented twelve technology lines. Approximately $16.6 million in funding was available for the six solicitations. Most of the funding was provided by DOE, Office of Fossil Energy (DOEFE) with the DOE Fuel Cells Technologies Office (DOE-FCTO) providing funding for a few projects. Coalition universities submitted 259 proposals in response to the solicitations, requesting approximately $67.0 million in funding, and forty-three projects were selected. However, one project withdrew after the principal investigator left the university. The management of the Coalition projects was a major activity by Penn State. Managing the Coalition projects consisted of monitoring the projects, reviewing the projects through annual technical review meetings, disseminating knowledge from the research projects, and developing an online system for Coalition research portfolio management. Penn State’s OMT monitored projects to ensure that all milestones (technical, schedule, budget) were met, expenditures were allowable, cost share (when applicable) were reported, and all technical reports were submitted. The OMT also posted the technical reports electronically on a secure members-only website for access and review by the Coalition members. Disseminating knowledge from the research projects was done through a website, newsletters, various meetings, conferences, journal articles, publicity/press releases, and project summaries that were prepared after each project was completed. Penn State kept NETL apprised of UCFER progress through quarterly reports (thirtyone were submitted by Penn State), verbal and written communications, yearly updates at the annual technical review meetings, and cost accrual reports. The UCFER project had a significant impacty. The UCFER program established the first national university alliance in fossil energy research with a major collaboration effort with DOE NETL that addressed specific topics in NETL’s research and development mission areas. It generated inter-university collaborations, which was another program interest. Twenty-two out of 259 proposals contained collaborations (≈8.5%) and three of forty-two funded projects involved inter-university collaborations (≈7.0%). The forty-two funded projects provided support at fourteen universities involving 269 personnel. Research was conducted by 106 faculty, 115 graduate and undergraduate students, forty-six research staff and post-doctoral scholars, and two visiting scholars. Students and post-doctoral scholars were also on-site at NETL through CRADAs. In addition, non-Coalition participants included six universities and sixteen companies and national laboratories. The non-Coalition participants were involved as subcontractors, providers of cost share, performed unpaid consultation and sample analysis, served as advisory board members, or were providers of samples and materials for testing. UCFER also produced visibility in that fifty-six refereed journal articles were published, fifty-seven conference papers and twenty-three posters were prepared, 190 presentations were given, eight patent applications were filed, two books/book chapters were written, and ten software codes were developed. Collaboration between NETL and the individual projects was a major requirement for all funded projects. This included NETL staff time to support collaboration, consultation, technical guidance, sample preparation and analysis, internships at NETL, on-site testing and equipment usage by Coalition participants at NETL, co-mentoring students, and coauthoring journal articles and conference papers. Collaboration was impacted by COVID-19 in that not all on-site activities could be performed. NETL personnel were coauthors on eight of the conference papers (fourteen percent of the conference papers that were prepared) and seventeen of the journal articles (thirty percent of the journal articles that were prepared). A website was developed for an online proposal solicitation and review process and to provide exposure to UCFER. A website analysis highlighted the large amount of member and general public interest in UCFER by interpreting access statistics from March 2016 through June 2023. Visitors to the site originated from many different organizations, businesses, and countries. The website provided a means to disseminate information to both the general public and the UCFER members and was successfully used for outreach activities. In addition, NETL required that RFP release, proposal submission, and proposal reviews all be performed online. Penn State successfully developed these capabilities in a secure section of the website, which were used throughout the UCFER project. It is recognized that each project had its technical successes. In addition, highlighted successes were compiled and summarized from the research projects. Information was requested from the PIs of completed projects. In addition, Penn State’s Operations Management Team reviewed subcontract reports to identify project successes. Examples of information requested from PIs included (not all-inclusive): new projects that have been funded as a result of UCFER funding; new commercial products; establishment of a new center; new patent; new software; best paper awards; highly-cited work; and graduate student successes. A total of forty-eight highlighted successes were reported.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Connecting Mission Profiles and Radiation Vulnerability Assessment

Radiation vulnerability assessment early in spacecraft development is cheaper and faster than in late development phases. RGENTIC and SEAM are two software platforms that can be coupled to provide this type of early assessment. Specifically, RGENTIC is a tool that outputs descriptions of radiation risks based on a selected mission environment and the system’s electronic part portfolio, while SEAM models how radiation-induced faults in electronic parts propagate through a system. In this work, we propose a spacecraft evaluation flow where RGENTIC’s outputs, which are radiation vulnerabilities of electronic parts for a given mission, become inputs to SEAM, resulting in an automatic part-type template palette presented to users so that they can easily begin modeling the occurrence and propagation of radiation-induced faults in their spacecraft. In this context, fault propagation modeling shows how radiation effects impact the spacecraft’s electronics.

Richard H. Nederlande↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards a Robust Sampling Approach: A Computational Review and Design

As pointed out in several other works, the estimation of the reliability of the electrical grid can not be conducted without the estimation of the stochastic phenomena of electicity demand and electricity production by variable renewable sources. Therefore, sampling procedures have become integral in the design of engineering structures and analysis. Commonly referred to as Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis or integration, the general objective of these procedures is to establish specifics about the uncertainty of an output characteristic of such an engineering system, given uncertainty about its input characteristics. These sampling procedures are applied in a context in which establishing such specifics cannot be performed through other means. Variance-reduction techniques are designed to lessen the variability among estimators to estimate statistics of those output uncertainties. Importance-sampling techniques, on the other hand, are designed to reduce the number of samples needed to estimate a particular statistic—e.g., a tail probability. The combination of these approaches can reduce the computational burden considerably for a particular estimator and statistic. Importance sampling—geared and designed as it is toward improving a particular estimator—suffers, unfortunately, from the unintended consequence of reducing the performance of other estimators in terms of their variance. The objective of this paper is to offer an alternative sampling procedure where this variance does not grow unacceptably large for a suite of estimators. Moreover, it is anticipated that, with additional knowledge of how an engineering output characteristic responds to its input characteristics, tuning parameters of the input’s sampling procedure can be set to improve the output characteristic’s estimation. This work proves the effectiveness of the suggested alternative approach. Such positive outcome will lead to a decrease of the computational burden of performing stochastic optimization of integrated energy systems (e.g., components dispatch, and portfolio composition). In particular, capturing the contribution to the overall system cost of rare and unlikely events and patterns of the electricity demand and production will become less computationally expensive. This is due to the fact that the approach demonstrated here will allow the sampling of those rare occurrences more frequently without misrepresenting their probabilistic impacts.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗