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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Predictive Models of Duration of Ground Delay Programs in New York Area Airports

Initially planned GDP duration often turns out to be an underestimate or an overestimate of the actual GDP duration. This, in turn, results in avoidable airborne or ground delays in the system. Therefore, better models of actual duration have the potential of reducing delays in the system. The overall objective of this study is to develop such models based on logs of GDPs. In a previous report, we described descriptive models of Ground Delay Programs. These models were defined in terms of initial planned duration and in terms of categorical variables. These descriptive models are good at characterizing the historical errors in planned GDP durations. This paper focuses on developing predictive models of GDP duration. Traffic Management Initiatives (TMI) are logged by Air Traffic Control facilities with The National Traffic Management Log (NTML) which is a single system for automated recoding, coordination, and distribution of relevant information about TMIs throughout the National Airspace System. (Brickman, 2004 Yuditsky, 2007) We use 2008-2009 GDP data from the NTML database for the study reported in this paper. NTML information about a GDP includes the initial specification, possibly one or more revisions, and the cancellation. In the next section, we describe general characteristics of Ground Delay Programs. In the third section, we develop models of actual duration. In the fourth section, we compare predictive performance of these models. The final section is a conclusion.

Kulkarni, Deepak↗
NASA NTRS1972

Microbial burden prediction model for unmanned planetary spacecraft

The technical development of a computer program for predicting microbial burden on unmanned planetary spacecraft is outlined. The discussion includes the derivation of the basic analytical equations, the selection of a method for handling several random variables, the macrologic of the computer programs and the validation and verification of the model. The prediction model was developed to (1) supplement the biological assays of a spacecraft by simulating the microbial accretion during periods when assays are not taken; (2) minimize the necessity for a large number of microbiological assays; and (3) predict the microbial loading on a lander immediately prior to sterilization and other non-lander equipment prior to launch. It is shown that these purposes not only were achieved but also that the prediction results compare favorably to the estimates derived from the direct assays. The computer program can be applied not only as a prediction instrument but also as a management and control tool. The basic logic of the model is shown to have possible applicability to other sequential flow processes, such as food processing.

Hoffman, A. R.↗
NASA NTRS1985

An initialization procedure for assimilating geostationary satellite data into numerical weather prediction models

An attempt was made to offset the limitations of GEO satellites for supplying timely initialization data for numerical weather prediction models (NWP). The NWP considered combined an isentropic representation of the free atmosphere with a sigma-coordinate model for the lower 200 mb. A flux form of the predictive equations described vertical transport interactions at the boundary of the two model domains, thereby accounting for the poor vertical temperature and wind field resolution of GEO satellite data. A variational analysis approach was employed to insert low resolution satellite-sensed temperature data at varying rates. The model vertical resolution was limited to that available from the satellite. Test simulations demonstrated that accuracy increases with the frequency of data updates, e.g., every 0.5-1 hr. The tests also showed that extensive cloud cover negates the capabilities of IR sensors and that microwave sensors will be needed for temperature estimations for 500-1000 mb levels.

Gal-Chen, T.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Updating prediction models by dynamical relaxation - An examination of the technique

A dynamical relaxation technique for updating prediction models is analyzed with the help of the linear and nonlinear barotropic primitive equations. It is assumed that a complete four-dimensional time history of some prescribed subset of the meteorological variables is known. The rate of adaptation of the flow variables toward the true state is determined for a linearized f-model, and for mid-latitude and equatorial beta-plane models. The results of the analysis are corroborated by numerical experiments with the nonlinear shallow-water equations.

Davies, H. C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Model Predictive Control Approach for In-Flight Acoustic Constraint Compliance

Vehicle noise remains one of the major barriers to public acceptance of Urban Air Mobility-class aircraft. This work focuses on motion planning for aircraft in noise-sensitive areas. A nonlinear Model Predictive Path Integral~(MPPI) control law is used to generate a finite-horizon trajectory that satisfies acoustic level constraints at a set of observer locations. The MPPI framework places no restrictions on the class of state-dependent cost functionals that can be employed, making it well-suited for use with sophisticated acoustic models and metrics, in addition to dynamic and mission-relevant constraints. The proposed control law is also suitable for implementation in a real-time application. A simulation example demonstrates the ability of the controller to modify the flight trajectory in order to satisfy acoustic constraints at multiple measurement locations.

Aircraft motion planning↗
NASA NTRS1988

On the horizontal resolution of fronts in numerical weather prediction models

A two-dimensional model is used to study the ability of current numerical weather prediction models to capture frontogenesis and to determine frontal motion. Particular attention is given to the ability of a simulation with a very coarse grid to represent the dynamics of a frontogenetically-active model cold front in a simulation with a relatively fine grid. A resolution between 50 and 100 km is satisfactory for capturing frontal scale motions.

Reeder, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS1976

A lateral boundary formulation for multi-level prediction models

A method is proposed for treating the lateral boundaries of a limited-area weather prediction model. The method involves the relaxation of the interior flow in the vicinity of the boundary to the external fully prescribed flow. Analytical and numerical results obtained with a linearized multilevel model confirm the effectiveness of this computationally effective method. The method is shown to give an adequate representation of outgoing gravity waves with and without an ambient shear flow and to allow the substantially undistorted transmission of geostrophically balanced flow out of the interior of the limited domain.

Davies, H. C.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Partition-based Feasible Integer Solution Pre-computation for Hybrid Model Predictive Control

For multiparametric mixed-integer convex programming problems such as those encountered in hybrid model predictive control, we propose an algorithm for generating a feasible partition of a subset of the parameter space. The result is a static map from the current parameter to a suboptimal integer solution such that the remaining convex program is feasible. Convergence is proved with a new insight that the overlap among the feasible parameter sets of each integer solution governs the partition complexity. The partition is stored as a tree which makes querying the feasible solution efficient. The algorithm can be used to warm start a mixed integer solver with a real-time guarantee or to provide a reference integer solution in several suboptimal MPC schemes. The algorithm is tested on randomly generated systems with up to six states, demonstrating the effectiveness of the approach.

Bayard, David S.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Solar Cycle 25 Model Prediction Comparisons: an Engineering Perspective

The solar cycle 25 progression is ramping up, prompting satellite operators to provide estimates of propellent usage over the next several years. Drag due to atmospheric heating from solar activity is the main driver to satellite lifetime decay, especially for those in low-Earth orbit destinations. In this poster, several model predictions of the sunspot number are compared and discussed with comments on applicability to engineering programs.

Space Weather↗
NASA NTRS2017

Validation of Fatigue Modeling Predictions in Aviation Operations

Bio-mathematical fatigue models that predict levels of alertness and performance are one potential tool for use within integrated fatigue risk management approaches. A number of models have been developed that provide predictions based on acute and chronic sleep loss, circadian desynchronization, and sleep inertia. Some are publicly available and gaining traction in settings such as commercial aviation as a means of evaluating flight crew schedules for potential fatigue-related risks. Yet, most models have not been rigorously evaluated and independently validated for the operations to which they are being applied and many users are not fully aware of the limitations in which model results should be interpreted and applied.

operational safety↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Comparison of Model Predictive Control Architectures for Application to Electrified Aircraft Propulsion Systems

As electrified aircraft propulsion (EAP) systems continue to mature, more sophisticated hardware and software are being developed to balance operations among electric machines and gas-turbine engines. In hybrid-electric propulsion systems, the increased complexity resulting from integrating turbine-engine shafts with electric machines necessitates control methodologies to account for various physical domains. Ideal controllers for hybrid-electric engines manage systems, subsystems, and their interactions in a coordinated fashion, able to account for safety and performance goals while being computationally efficient. In a previous work, linear model predictive control (MPC) schemes were implemented in centralized and distributed frameworks on a nonlinear turbofan engine model as a proof of concept. However, these schemes were not evaluated for computational complexity, prompting further study. The research presented here develops hierarchical MPC schemes to reduce the computational burden of the previous MPC schemes. A two-tier framework is implemented, where a slower sampling MPC controls electric machines and determines fan-speed tracking goals for a faster sampling controller, which is either a MPC or a proportional-integral (PI) controller. The proposed designs are compared to the centralized MPC investigated previously, and performance is measured via fan speed tracking error, energy storage state-of-charge, and computation time. Results reveal that the hierarchical MPC scheme employing a lower-level PI controller improves computation time while maintaining comparable tracking and state-of-charge regulation to the centralized scheme.

model predictive control↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Comparison of Model Predictive Control Architectures for Application to Electrified Aircraft Propulsion Systems

As electrified aircraft propulsion (EAP) systems continue to mature, more sophisticated hardware and software are being developed to balance operations among electric machines and gas-turbine engines. In hybrid-electric propulsion systems, the increased complexity resulting from integrating turbine-engine shafts with electric machines necessitates control methodologies to account for various physical domains. Ideal controllers for hybrid-electric engines manage systems, subsystems, and their interactions in a coordinated fashion, able to account for safety and performance goals while being computationally efficient. In a previous work, linear model predictive control (MPC) schemes were implemented in centralized and distributed frameworks on a nonlinear turbofan engine model as a proof of concept. However, these schemes were not evaluated for computational complexity, prompting further study. The research presented here develops hierarchical MPC schemes to reduce the computational burden of the previous MPC schemes. A two-tier framework is implemented, where a slower sampling MPC controls electric machines and determines fan-speed tracking goals for a faster sampling controller, which is either a MPC or a proportional-integral (PI) controller. The proposed designs are compared to the centralized MPC investigated previously, and performance is measured via fan speed tracking error, energy storage state-of-charge, and computation time. Results reveal that the hierarchical MPC scheme employing a lower-level PI controller improves computation time while maintaining comparable tracking and state-of-charge regulation to the centralized scheme.

model predictive control↗
NASA NTRS1994

USAF single-event sonic boom prediction model: PCBoom3

The Air Force has developed PCBoom3, a general-purpose, single-event sonic boom prediction model. The model operates on an IBM PC or compatible, under DOS or Windows. It is accessed via an integrated environment which controls building of input cases, running boom calculations, displaying contours and signatures, and managing all associated data. The primary boom calculation is via a variation of FOBOOM, the focus-boom extension of Thomas's program. Aircraft input is either via a user-provided F-function, or simple N-wave F-functions tabulated for about 20 current aircraft. A fast boom calculation, based on Plotkin's SBORT algorithms, is included for simple N-wave F-functions in a windless atmosphere and flight altitudes up to 60,000 feet. After a run is complete, the user can access an index identifying significant events (focal zones, beginning of footprint, etc.), then plot boom amplitude contours and signatures or spectra at any point in the footprint. The primary uses of this program are expected to be operational planning and boom incident investigation. However, because of the commonality between FOBOOM and the MDBOOM program currently being used for low boom configuration design, this program is of interest to the HSCT community, especially as supersonic route planning activity increases. The Air Force recently conducted a flight test program to evaluate the focal zone capabilities of PCBoom3. Initial results of that program validate the prediction of focal zone geometry, amplitudes, and waveforms.

Plotkin, Kenneth J.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Piloted Simulation Evaluation of a Model-Predictive Automatic Recovery System to Prevent Vehicle Loss of Control on Approach

This paper describes a model-predictive automatic recovery system for aircraft on the verge of a loss-of-control situation. The system determines when it must intervene to prevent an imminent accident, resulting from a poor approach. It estimates the altitude loss that would result from a go-around maneuver at the current flight condition. If the loss is projected to violate a minimum altitude threshold, the maneuver is automatically triggered. The system deactivates to allow landing once several criteria are met. Piloted flight simulator evaluation showed the system to provide effective envelope protection during extremely unsafe landing attempts. The results demonstrate how flight and propulsion control can be integrated to recover control of the vehicle automatically and prevent a potential catastrophe.

aircraft engine simulation↗
NASA NTRS2014

Piloted Simulation Evaluation of a Model-Predictive Automatic Recovery System to Prevent Vehicle Loss of Control on Approach

This paper describes a model-predictive automatic recovery system for aircraft on the verge of a loss-of-control situation. The system determines when it must intervene to prevent an imminent accident, resulting from a poor approach. It estimates the altitude loss that would result from a go-around maneuver at the current flight condition. If the loss is projected to violate a minimum altitude threshold, the maneuver is automatically triggered. The system deactivates to allow landing once several criteria are met. Piloted flight simulator evaluation showed the system to provide effective envelope protection during extremely unsafe landing attempts. The results demonstrate how flight and propulsion control can be integrated to recover control of the vehicle automatically and prevent a potential catastrophe.

aircraft engine performance↗
NASA NTRS1971

Microbial burden prediction model program

Model supplements biological surveys of spacecraft by simulating microbial burden accumulation process during periods when surveys are not taken. Important application of model is to predict microbial loading on spacecraft landing capsule immediately prior to terminal heat sterilization.

Meuser, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS1985

The role of microstructure and phase distribution in the failure mechanisms and life prediction model for PSZ coatings

Partially Stabilized Zirconia (PSZ) may become widely used for Thermal Barrier Coatings (TBC). Failure of these coatings can occur due to thermal fatigue in oxidizing atmospheres. The failure is due to the strains that develop due to thermal gradients, differences in thermal expansion coefficients, and oxidation of the bond coating. The role of microstructure and the cubic, tetragonal, and monoclinic phase distribution in the strain development and subsequent failure will be discussed. An X-ray diffraction technique for accurate determination of the fraction of each phase in PSZ will be applied to understanding the phase transformations and strain development. These results will be discussed in terms of developing a model for life prediction in PSZ coatings during thermal cycling.

Sisson, R. D., Jr.↗