Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1982

A model of subjective probabilities from small groups

Methods for aggregating the opinions of individual forecasters in order to improve the quality of probabilistic forecasts are presented. Experimental results obtained by Seaver in his study of probability judgments by groups of four people are considered. The decision variable partition model of subjective probability and a simple model of the effects of interaction on judgments were used to simulate the group judgment of discrete probabilities investigated by Seaver. The initial results of the simulation are very promising in that (1) they show the principal effects Seaver observed and (2) these effects can, for the most part, be traced to specific characteristics of the models.

Ferrell, W. R.↗
NASA NTRS1980

The use of prior probabilities in maximum likelihood classification of remotely sensed data

Possibilities for the improvement of classification accuracies by the use of prior information about the expected distribution of classes in the maximum likelihood classification of remote sensing data are examined. The modification of the maximum likelihood decision rule to take into account one or several sets of probabilities for the occurrence of classes which probabilities are based on independent knowledge of the area surveyed is demonstrated. It is then shown that the use of prior probabilities is sufficiently versatile so as to allow the prior weighting of output classes based on their anticipated sizes as well as the merging of continuously varying measurements with discrete collateral information data sets and the construction of time-sequential classification systems in which an earlier classification modifies the outcome of a latter one.

Strahler, A. H.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Simulations for Full Unit-memory and Partial Unit-memory Convolutional Codes with Real-time Minimal-byte-error Probability Decoding Algorithm

A program which was written to simulate Real Time Minimal-Byte-Error Probability (RTMBEP) decoding of full unit-memory (FUM) convolutional codes on a 3-bit quantized AWGN channel is described. This program was used to compute the symbol-error probability of FUM codes and to determine the signal to noise (SNR) required to achieve a bit error rate (BER) of 10 to the minus 6th power for corresponding concatenated systems. A (6,6/30) FUM code, 6-bit Reed-Solomon code combination was found to achieve the required BER at a SNR of 1.886 dB. The RTMBEP algorithm was then modified for decoding partial unit-memory (PUM) convolutional codes. A simulation program was also written to simulate the symbol-error probability of these codes.

Vo, Q. D.↗
NASA NTRS1986

A new technique for predicting geosynchronous satellite collision probability

A new technique has been developed to predict the probability of an expired geosynchronous satellite colliding with an active satellite. This new technique employs deterministic methods for modeling the motion of satellites and applies statistical techniques to estimate the collision probability. The collision probability is used to estimate the expected time between collisions based on realistic distributions of expired and active satellites. The primary advantage of this new technique is that realistic distributions can be used in the prediction process instead of uniform distributions as has been used in previous techniques. The expected time between collisions based on a current NORAD database is estimated to be in the hundreds of years.

Mccormick, B.↗
NASA NTRS1987

More on the decoder error probability for Reed-Solomon codes

The decoder error probability for Reed-Solomon codes (more generally, linear maximum distance separable codes) is examined. McEliece and Swanson offered an upper bound on P sub E (u), the decoder error probability given that u symbol errors occurs. This upper bound is slightly greater than Q, the probability that a completely random error pattern will cause decoder error. By using a combinatoric technique, the principle of inclusion and exclusion, an exact formula for P sub E (u) is derived. The P sub e (u) for the (255, 223) Reed-Solomon Code used by NASA, and for the (31,15) Reed-Solomon code (JTIDS code), are calculated using the exact formula, and the P sub E (u)'s are observed to approach the Q's of the codes rapidly as u gets larger. An upper bound for the expression is derived, and is shown to decrease nearly exponentially as u increases. This proves analytically that P sub E (u) indeed approaches Q as u becomes large, and some laws of large numbers come into play.

Cheung, K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Land mobile satellite transmission measurements at 869 MHz. A comparison of error probabilities for various message block durations and fade margins as a function of vegetation shadowing

In order to give vehicles travelling in rural areas of the U.S. access to the telephone network, a Land Mobile Satellite System is being planned. Previously presented data by the author were analyzed for the probability that the received signal level dropped below a threshold during short time blocks of various signal durations and the conditional probability that such an event would reoccur after a given delay. If it assumed that a fade threshold crossing of even 1 msec would produce an error in the transmission, then the derived quantities can be considered error probabilities. Extensive tables and graphs are presented with the results from the analysis. They can be used to devise communication strategies which will provide improved link availability in the presence of vegetation shadowing.

Vogel, Wolfhard J.↗
NASA NTRS1989

More On The Decoder-Error Probability Of Reed-Solomon Codes

Paper extends theory of decoder-error probability for linear maximum-distance separable (MDS) codes. General class of error-correcting codes includes Reed-Solomon codes, important in communications with distant spacecraft, military communications, and compact-disk recording industry. Advancing beyond previous theoretical developments that placed upper bounds on decoder-error probabilities, author derives an exact formula for probability PE(u) that decoder will make error when u code symbols in error.

Cheung, Kar-Ming↗
NASA NTRS1987

Calculating the CEP (Circular Error Probable)

This report compares the probability contained in the Circular Error Probable associated with an Elliptical Error Probable to that of the EEP at a given confidence level. The levels examined are 50 percent and 95 percent. The CEP is found to be both more conservative and less conservative than the associated EEP, depending on the eccentricity of the ellipse. The formulas used are derived in the appendix.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1989

Probabilities and statistics for backscatter estimates obtained by a scatterometer with applications to new scatterometer design data

The values of the Normalized Radar Backscattering Cross Section (NRCS), sigma (o), obtained by a scatterometer are random variables whose variance is a known function of the expected value. The probability density function can be obtained from the normal distribution. Models for the expected value obtain it as a function of the properties of the waves on the ocean and the winds that generated the waves. Point estimates of the expected value were found from various statistics given the parameters that define the probability density function for each value. Random intervals were derived with a preassigned probability of containing that value. A statistical test to determine whether or not successive values of sigma (o) are truly independent was derived. The maximum likelihood estimates for wind speed and direction were found, given a model for backscatter as a function of the properties of the waves on the ocean. These estimates are biased as a result of the terms in the equation that involve natural logarithms, and calculations of the point estimates of the maximum likelihood values are used to show that the contributions of the logarithmic terms are negligible and that the terms can be omitted.

Pierson, Willard J., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Probabilities for gravitational lensing by point masses in a locally inhomogeneous universe

Probability functions for gravitational lensing by point masses that incorporate Poisson statistics and flux conservation are formulated in the Dyer-Roeder construction. Optical depths to lensing for distant sources are calculated using both the method of Press and Gunn (1973) which counts lenses in an otherwise empty cone, and the method of Ehlers and Schneider (1986) which projects lensing cross sections onto the source sphere. These are then used as parameters of the probability density for lensing in the case of a critical (q0 = 1/2) Friedmann universe. A comparison of the probability functions indicates that the effects of angle-averaging can be well approximated by adjusting the average magnification along a random line of sight so as to conserve flux.

Isaacson, Jeffrey A.↗
NASA NTRS1989

More on the decoder error probability for Reed-Solomon codes

The decoder error probability for Reed-Solomon codes (more generally, linear maximum distance separable codes) is examined. McEliece and Swanson offered an upper bound on P sub E (u), the decoder error probability given that u symbol errors occur. This upper bound is slightly greater than Q, the probability that a completely random error pattern will cause decoder error. By using a combinatoric technique, the principle of inclusion and exclusion, an exact formula for P sub E (u) is derived. The P sub E (u) for the (255,223) Reed-Solomon Code used by NASA, and for the (31,15) Reed-Solomon code (JTIDS code), are calculated using the exact formula, and the P sub E (u)'s are observed to approach the Q's of the codes rapidly as u gets larger. An upper bound for the expression is derived, and is shown to decrease nearly exponentially as u increases. This proves analytically that P sub E (u) indeed approaches Q as u becomes large, and some laws of large numbers come into play.

Cheung, Kar-Ming↗
NASA NTRS1991

Maximum-entropy probability distributions under Lp-norm constraints

Continuous probability density functions and discrete probability mass functions are tabulated which maximize the differential entropy or absolute entropy, respectively, among all probability distributions with a given L sub p norm (i.e., a given pth absolute moment when p is a finite integer) and unconstrained or constrained value set. Expressions for the maximum entropy are evaluated as functions of the L sub p norm. The most interesting results are obtained and plotted for unconstrained (real valued) continuous random variables and for integer valued discrete random variables. The maximum entropy expressions are obtained in closed form for unconstrained continuous random variables, and in this case there is a simple straight line relationship between the maximum differential entropy and the logarithm of the L sub p norm. Corresponding expressions for arbitrary discrete and constrained continuous random variables are given parametrically; closed form expressions are available only for special cases. However, simpler alternative bounds on the maximum entropy of integer valued discrete random variables are obtained by applying the differential entropy results to continuous random variables which approximate the integer valued random variables in a natural manner. All the results are presented in an integrated framework that includes continuous and discrete random variables, constraints on the permissible value set, and all possible values of p. Understanding such as this is useful in evaluating the performance of data compression schemes.

Dolinar, S.↗
NASA NTRS1991

An evaluation of probable bedrock exposure in the Sinus Meridiani region of the Martian highlands

Estimates of the amount of probable bedrock exposures visible in the highest-resolution Viking imaging data for a selected region of the Martian surface are presented. The study region includes portions of the classical low-albedo regions of Sinus Meridiani and Sinus Sabaeus and the high-albedo region of Arabia, and is completely within the cratered highlands of Mars. More than 400 images were used to estimate the percentage of the area of each frame having locally steep slopes. It is seen that 42 percent of the high-resolution frames have less than one percent probable bedrock exposure while three percent of the frames have 15 percent probable bedrock exposure.

Zimbelman, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Generalized probability model for calculation of interference to the Deep Space Network due to circularly Earth-orbiting satellites

The probability of exceeding interference power levels and the duration of interference at the Deep Space Network (DSN) antenna is calculated parametrically when the state vector of an Earth-orbiting satellite over the DSN station view area is not known. A conditional probability distribution function is derived, transformed, and then convolved with the interference signal uncertainties to yield the probability distribution of interference at any given instant during the orbiter's mission period. The analysis is applicable to orbiting satellites having circular orbits with known altitude and inclination angle.

Ruggier, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Probability distributions for the magnification of quasars due to microlensing

Gravitational microlensing can magnify the flux of a lensed quasar considerably and therefore possibly influence quasar source counts or the observed quasar luminosity function. A large number of distributions of magnification probabilities due to gravitational microlensing for finite sources are presented, with a reasonable coverage of microlensing parameter space (i.e., surface mass density, external shear, mass spectrum of lensing objects). These probability distributions were obtained from smoothing two-dimensional magnification patterns with Gaussian source profiles. Different source sizes ranging from 10 exp 14 cm to 5 x 10 exp 16 cm were explored. The probability distributions show a large variety of shapes. Coefficients of fitted slopes for large magnifications are presented.

Wambsganss, Joachim↗
NASA NTRS1992

Caustic-induced features in microlensing magnification probability distributions

Numerical simulations have uncovered a previously unrecognized 'bump' in the macroimage magnification probabilities produced by a planar distribution of point masses. The result could be relevant to cases of microlensing by star fields in single galaxies, for which this lensing geometry is an excellent approximation. The bump is produced by bright pairs of microimages formed by sources lying near the caustics of the lens. The numerically calculated probabilities for the magnifications in the range between 3 and 30 are significantly higher than those given by the asymptotic relation derived by Schneider. The bump present in the two-dimensional lenses appears not to exist in the magnification probability distribution produced by a fully three-dimensional lens.

Rauch, Kevin P.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Estimating the probability of failure when testing reveals no failures

Formulas for estimating the probability of failure when testing reveals no errors are introduced. These formulas incorporate random testing results, information about the input distribution, and prior assumptions about the probability of failure of the software. The formulas are not restricted to equally likely input distributions, and the probability of failure estimate can be adjusted when assumptions about the input distribution change. The formulas are based on a discrete sample space statistical model of software and include Bayesian prior assumptions. Reusable software and software in life-critical applications are particularly appropriate candidates for this type of analysis.

Miller, Keith W.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Scene identification probabilities for evaluating radiation flux errors due to scene misidentification

The scene identification probabilities (Pij) are fundamentally important in evaluations of the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) radiation-flux errors due to the scene misidentification. In this paper, the scene identification error probabilities were empirically derived from data collected in 1985 by the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) scanning radiometer when the ERBE satellite and the NOAA-9 spacecraft were rotated so as to scan alongside during brief periods in January and August 1985. Radiation-flux error computations utilizing these probabilities were performed, using orbit specifications for the ERBE, the Cloud and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES), and the SCARAB missions for a scene that was identified as partly cloudy over ocean. Typical values of the standard deviation of the random shortwave error were in the order of 1.5-5 W/sq m, but could reach values as high as 18.0 W/sq m as computed from NOAA-9.

Manalo, Natividad D.↗