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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Unveiling the Potential of MeshGraphNets for Predicting Subsurface Evolution in Carbon Storage Projects

Presentation “Unveiling the Potential of MeshGraphNets for Predicting Subsurface Evolution in Carbon Storage Projects” at the 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies GHGT-17 held in Calgary, Canada, October 20-24, 2024. The presentation majorly demonstrates a use case of how the meshgraphnets can be used for subsurface evaluation for real-time decision support for CO2 storage.

Holcomb, Paul↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Review of Coastal Fog Microphysics During C-FOG

The goal of this paper is to provide an overview the coastal fog microphysical measurements and to evaluate microphysical parameterizations based on the C-FOG (Toward Improving Coastal Fog Prediction) field project. C-FOG is designed to advance understanding of liquid fog formation, development, and dissipation over coastal environments to improve fog predictability and monitoring. The project took place in Eastern Canada (Nova Scotia, NS and Newfoundland, NL) coastlines and open water environments during August-October of 2018 where environmental conditions play an important role for late season’s fog formation. Visibility (Vis), wind speed (Uh), and turbulence along coastlines are the most critical weather- related parameters affecting marine transportation and aviation. In the analysis, microphysical observations are summarized first and then they are, together with 3D wind components, used for fog intensity (visibility) evaluation. Results suggest that detailed microphysical observations collected at the supersites and aboard Research Vessel (RV) Hugh R. Sharp are useful to develop microphysical parameterizations. The fog life cycle and turbulence kinetic energy dissipation rate were strongly related to each other. The magnitude of 3D wind fluctuations was higher during the formation and dissipation stages. An array of cutting-edge instruments used for data collection provided new insight into the variability and intensity of fog (visibility) and microphysics. It is concluded that further improvements in microphysical observations and parameterizations are needed to improve fog predictability of NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Project 7.3 Characterization of Kevlar®-reinforced Composites for Predictive Simulation

The IACMI 7.3 project between DuPont and Purdue University required the mechanical testing of a 2x2 twill Kevlar® weave with Hexion EPIKOTE resin. The tension, shear, flexure, and compressive behavior of this material system was characterized, and the results can be seen in Table 1. These material properties can now be further evaluated for use in performance simulations of automotive components to represent the properties of composites based on woven materials containing Kevlar. This report will provide details regarding the effort required to arrive at these material properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Structural- and Functional-Informed Machine Learning for Protein Function Prediction

In this project we aimed to extend methods for protein function prediction to include structural prediction data, and benchmark methods against existing tools. We proposed to apply the method to large metagenome datasets, and develop approaches to examine activity-based protein profiling results for protein function-structure patterns. Nitrogen cycle protein families were previously identified and are used here to provide a proof-of-principle for use of structure prediction in protein function classification.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing understanding and predictive capability for fast-ion driven instabilities and associated anomalous transport in NSTX-U

This project advanced predictive capability for the spherical tokamak (ST) by (a) experimental validation of physics models in GTC for simulating fast-ion driven instabilities and their fast-ion and energy transport in the ST, and (b) verification of GTC with linear theory and validation using experimental measurements in the high frequency regime in the ST.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

An LSTM Deep Learning Network for ¿Background Radiation Prediction

Determination of appropriate background radiation is important in any measurement application. Environmental radiation monitors and monitors used to assess dose to individuals outside of controlled areas are particularly susceptible to changes in readings due to fluctuations in the environmental conditions. These fluctuations (e.g. radon progeny concentrations) lead to changes in the detector response in the actual radiation environment, and they need to be taken into account when extracting the net operational doses. Work has been ongoing to apply advances in Deep Learning and Artificial Intelligence to account for changes in detector responses based on environmental parameters; in particular, a Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) Deep Learning architecture has been utilized to incorporate time-series data into a prediction model. In this work, we present the current status of the project to predict radiation measurements based on meteorological conditions and air packet trajectories extracted using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT4) model.

Degtiarenko, Pavel↗
NASA NTRS2018

Synergistic and Collaborative Development Strategies for FV3 Powered Next Generation Unified Global Modeling System

The GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Finite-­Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (FV3) is a scalable and flexible dynamical core capable of both hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic atmospheric simulations. FV3 has been chosen as the dynamical core for the Next Generation Global Prediction System project (NGGPS), designed to upgrade the current NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NOAA) operational Global Forecast System (GFS) to run as a unified, fully-coupled system in NOAA's Environmental Modeling System infrastructure. FV3 dynamic core has a long history of serving as the main engine for global atmospheric models at various Government and Academic Research Laboratories including NOAA: GFDL Climate Modeling Suite (AM4 (Atmosphere Modeling 4), CM4 (Climate Model 4) ESM4 (Earth System Model 4), Hiram (HIgh Resolution Atmospheric Model)); NASA: GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS); and NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) Community Earth System Model (CESM). The three primary stakeholders in FV3 (GFDL, GMAO, EMC (Environmental Modeling Center - NOAA)) have embarked on synergistic and collaborative strategies with focus on the advancement of non-hydrostratic dynamic core, physics, chemistry, and data assimilation efforts, leveraging collective strengths of each of the partnering agencies. This talk presents the ongoing plans for model advancements at GFDL, GMAO and EMC, with special emphasis on contributions towards developing community based unified global modeling system for operational and research applications at respective organizations. Future plans include extending the collaborations to the development of earth system components including GMAO's aerosol chemistry models (GOCART/MAM (Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport / Modal Aerosol Model)), Land Information System (LIS), and advanced data assimilation techniques; and GFDL's Modular Ocean Model (MOM) and Sea Ice Simulator (SIS) for transition to operations at NCEP.

Putman, William↗
NASA NTRS1986

A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. 1: Theoretical development and application to yearly predictions for selected cities in the United States

A rain attenuation prediction model is described for use in calculating satellite communication link availability for any specific location in the world that is characterized by an extended record of rainfall. Such a formalism is necessary for the accurate assessment of such availability predictions in the case of the small user-terminal concept of the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project. The model employs the theory of extreme value statistics to generate the necessary statistical rainrate parameters from rain data in the form compiled by the National Weather Service. These location dependent rain statistics are then applied to a rain attenuation model to obtain a yearly prediction of the occurrence of attenuation on any satellite link at that location. The predictions of this model are compared to those of the Crane Two-Component Rain Model and some empirical data and found to be very good. The model is then used to calculate rain attenuation statistics at 59 locations in the United States (including Alaska and Hawaii) for the 20 GHz downlinks and 30 GHz uplinks of the proposed ACTS system. The flexibility of this modeling formalism is such that it allows a complete and unified treatment of the temporal aspects of rain attenuation that leads to the design of an optimum stochastic power control algorithm, the purpose of which is to efficiently counter such rain fades on a satellite link.

Manning, Robert M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Increased drought and extreme events over continental United States under high emissions scenario

The frequency, severity, and extent of climate extremes in future will have an impact on human well-being, ecosystems, and the effectiveness of emissions mitigation and carbon sequestration strategies. The specific objectives of this study were to downscale climate data for US weather stations and analyze future trends in meteorological drought and temperature extremes over continental United States (CONUS). We used data from 4161 weather stations across the CONUS to downscale future precipitation projections from three Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6), specifically for the high emission scenario SSP5 8.5. Comparing historic observations with climate model projections revealed a significant bias in total annual precipitation days and total precipitation amounts. The average number of annual precipitation days across CONUS was projected to be 205 ± 26, 184 ± 33, and 181 ± 25 days in the BCC, CanESM, and UKESM models, respectively, compared to 91 ± 24 days in the observed data. Analyzing the duration of drought periods in different ecoregions of CONUS showed an increase in the number of drought months in the future (2023–2052) compared to the historical period (1989–2018). The analysis of precipitation and temperature changes in various ecoregions of CONUS revealed an increased frequency of droughts in the future, along with longer durations of warm spells. Eastern temperate forests and the Great Plains, which encompass the majority of CONUS agricultural lands, are projected to experience higher drought counts in the future. Drought projections show an increasing trend in future drought occurrences due to rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. Our high-resolution climate projections can inform policy makers about the hotspots and their anticipated future trajectories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Near-global summer circulation response to the spring surface temperature anomaly in Tibetan Plateau –– the GEWEX/LS4P first phase experiment

Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction of droughts and floods is one of the major challenges of weather and climate prediction. Recent studies suggest that the springtime land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) can be a new source of S2S predictability. The project “Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction (LS4P)” was initiated to study the impact of springtime LST/SUBT anomalies over high mountain areas on summertime precipitation predictions. The present work explores the simulated global scale response of the atmospheric circulation to the springtime TP land surface cooling by 16 current state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the LS4P Phase I (LS4P-I) experiment. The LS4P-I results show, for the first time, that springtime TP surface anomalies can modulate a persistent quasi-barotropic Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal (TRC) wave train from the TP via the northeast Asia and Bering Strait to the western part of the North America, along with the springtime westerly jet from TP across the whole North Pacific basin. The TRC wave train modulated by the TP thermal anomaly play a critical role on the early summer surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies in the regions along the wave train, especially over the northwest North America and the southern Great Plains. The participant models that fail in capturing the TRC wave train greatly under-predict climate anomalies in reference to observations and the successful models. These results suggest that the TP LST/SUBT anomaly via the TRC wave train is the first order source of the S2S variability in the regions mentioned. Furthermore, the TP surface temperature anomaly can influence the Southern Hemispheric circulation by generating cross-equator wave trains. However, the simulated propagation pathways from the TP into the Southern Hemisphere show large inter-model differences. More dynamical understanding of the TRC wave train as well as its cross-equator propagation into the Southern Hemisphere will be explored in the newly launched LS4P phase II experiment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unveiling the Potential of MeshGraphNets for Predicting Subsurface Evolution in Carbon Storage Projects

This is the conference paper accompanying an oral presentation “Unveiling the Potential of MeshGraphNets for Predicting Subsurface Evolution in Carbon Storage Projects” at the 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies GHGT-17 held in Calgary, Canada, October 20-24 , 2024. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is critical for mitigating climate change but requires effective subsurface reservoir management to ensure safe containment of injected CO2. Accurate predictions of reservoir pressure and saturation are essential for assessing long-term CCS performance. Traditional numerical simulations, while effective, are computationally intensive, time-consuming, and constrained by data discretization. Previous work has shown the effectiveness of MeshGraphNets (MGN), a graph-based machine learning framework, as an innovative alternative for predicting reservoir behavior. MGN leverages graph neural networks (GNNs) and mesh representations to model complex geological formations, offering superior adaptability across different discretizations and reservoir configurations. Classic MGN implementations utilize an autoregressive technique to predict future behavior based on current predictions, but this technique is hampered by error accumulation over time. To enhance the model accuracy in time-series predictions, this study implemented a multi-step rollout strategy that integrates autoregressive predictions during training to stabilize prediction of saturation over time. Using the Illinois Basin – Decatur Project (IBDP) dataset, comprising 100 simulations of CO2 injection, pressure, and saturation changes, the framework demonstrated its ability to learn spatial dependencies and temporal dynamics. With inputs including permeabilities, porosities, and injection rates, MGN accurately predicted CO2 plume evolution over time, even with limited training data. Moreover, the addition of a multi-step rollout procedure during training improved the ability of MGN to predict stably over time by ~15%. This research positions MGN, enhanced with multi-step rollout capabilities, as a robust and efficient tool for CCS applications. It advances the field by enabling precise, computationally efficient predictions of reservoir behavior, providing a foundation for the broader adoption of machine learning frameworks in CCS and other geoscience domains.

Holcomb, Paul↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tidal Turbine Benchmarking Project: Stage I - Steady Flow Blind Predictions: Preprint

This paper presents the first blind prediction stage of the Tidal Turbine Benchmarking Project being conducted and funded by the UK's EPSRC and Supergen ORE Hub. In this first stage, only steady flow conditions, at low and elevated turbulence (3.1%) levels, were considered. Prior to the blind prediction stage, a large laboratory scale experiment was conducted in which a highly instrumented 1.6m diameter tidal rotor was towed through a large towing tank in well-defined flow conditions with and without an upstream turbulence grid. Details of the test campaign and rotor design were released as part of this community blind prediction exercise. Participants were invited to use a range of engineering modelling approaches to simulate the performance and loads of the turbine. 26 submissions were received from 12 groups from across academia and industry using solution techniques ranging from blade resolved computational fluid dynamics through actuator line, boundary integral element methods, vortex methods to engineering Blade Element Momentum methods. The comparisons between experiments and blind predictions were extremely positive helping to provide validation and uncertainty estimates for the models, but also validating the experimental tests themselves. The exercise demonstrated that the experimental turbine data provides a robust data set against which researchers and design engineers can test their models and implementations to ensure robustness in their processes, helping to reduce uncertainty and provide increased confidence in engineering processes. Furthermore, the data set provides the basis by which modellers can evaluate and refine approaches.

benchmarking↗
NASA NTRS1975

IMS/Satellite Situation Center report. Predicted orbit plots for Vela 5B, 1976

Predicted orbit plots for the Vela 5B satellite are presented for the time period January-December 1976. This satellite has been identified as an important possible contributor to the International Magnetospheric Study (IMS) project. The predicted orbit plots are shown in three projections. The time period covered by each set of projections is 4 days 16 hours, corresponding approximately to the period of Vela 5B. The three coordinate systems used are the Geocentric Solar Ecliptic system (GSE), the Geocentric Solar Magnetospheric system (GSM), and the Solar Magnetic system (SM).

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2019

Using Machine Learning to Predict Core Sizes of High-Efficiency Turbofan Engines

With the rise in big data and analytics, machine learning is transforming many industries. It is being increasingly employed to solve a wide range of complex problems, producing autonomous systems that support human decision-making. For the aircraft engine industry, machine learning of historical and existing engine data could provide insights that help drive for better engine design. This work explored the application of machine learning to engine preliminary design. Engine core-size prediction was chosen for the first study because of its relative simplicity in terms of number of input variables required (only three). Specifically, machine-learning predictive tools were developed for turbofan engine core-size prediction, using publicly available data of two hundred manufactured engines and engines that were studied previously in NASA aeronautics projects. The prediction results of these models show that, by bringing together big data, robust machine-learning algorithms and automation, a machine learning-based predictive model can be an effective tool for turbofan engine core-size prediction. The promising results of this first study paves the way for further exploration of the use of machine learning for aircraft engine preliminary design.

Tong, Michael T.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Using Machine Learning to Predict Core Sizes of High-Efficiency Turbofan Engines

With the rise in big data and analytics, machine learning is transforming many industries. It is being increasingly employed to solve a wide range of complex problems, producing autonomous systems that support human decision-making. For the aircraft engine industry, machine learning of historical and existing engine data could provide insights that help drive for better engine design. This work explored the application of machine learning to engine preliminary design. Engine core-size prediction was chosen for the first study because of its relative simplicity in terms of number of input variables required (only three). Specifically, machine-learning predictive tools were developed for turbofan engine core-size prediction, using publicly available data of two hundred manufactured engines and engines that were studied previously in NASA aeronautics projects. The prediction results of these models show that, by bringing together big data, robust machine-learning algorithms and data science, a machine learning-based predictive model can be an effective tool for turbofan engine core-size prediction. The promising results of this first study paves the way for further exploration of the use of machine learning for aircraft engine preliminary design.

Core Size↗
DOE OSTI2022

Best practices for predictions of radionuclide activity concentrations and total absorbed dose rates to freshwater organisms exposed to uranium mining/milling

Predictions of radionuclide dose rates to freshwater organisms can be used to evaluate the radiological environmental impacts of releases from uranium mining and milling projects. These predictions help inform decisions on the implementation of mitigation measures. The objective of this study was to identify how dose rate modelling could be improved to reduce uncertainty in predictions to non-human biota. For this purpose, we modelled the activity concentrations of 210 Pb, 210 Po, 226 Ra, 230 Th, and 238 U downstream of uranium mines and mills in northern Saskatchewan, Canada, together with associated weighted absorbed dose rates for a freshwater food chain using measured activity concentrations in water and sediments. Differences in predictions of radionuclide activity concentrations occurred mainly from the different default partition coefficient and concentration ratio values from one model to another and including all or only some 238 U decay daughters in the dose rate assessments. Consequently, we recommend a standardized best-practice approach to calculate weighted absorbed dose rates to freshwater biota whether a facility is at the planning, operating or decommissioned stage. At the initial planning stage, the best-practice approach recommend using conservative site-specific baseline activity concentrations in water, sediments and organisms and predict conservative incremental activity concentrations in these media by selecting concentration ratios based on species similarity and similar water quality conditions to reduce the uncertainty in dose rate calculations. At the operating and decommissioned stages, the best-practice approach recommends relying on measured activity concentrations in water, sediment, fish tissue and wholebody of small organisms to further reduce uncertainty in dose rate estimates. This approach would allow for more realistic but still conservative dose assessments when evaluating impacts from uranium mining projects and making decision on adequate controls of releases.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding and Predictability of Integrated Mountain Hydroclimate (Workshop Report)

Mountainous systems cover approximately 23% of Earth’s land and are distributed across all continents. They can capture and store atmospheric moisture that is then cycled through the terrestrial surface and subsurface system, released to downstream communities, and cycled back to the atmosphere. Mountain hydroclimate—characterized by steep gradients, geological, ecological, and biogeochemical diversity—is influenced by topographic forcing and elevated warming and susceptible to large subseasonal to multidecadal variability and rapid changes. Terrestrial hydrological and biogeochemical cycles also experience cascading effects from global warming impacts, such as multidecadal declines in mountain snowpack, longer growing seasons, and increased frequency and severity of extreme events like droughts and wildfires. However, little is known about the effects of these impacts and their feedbacks on climate systems and surface-subsurface compartments. Also unknown are the full implications of changing hydroclimate and extreme events on hydro biogeochemical cycles across atmosphere, terrestrial, and human systems in mountain regions and beyond. This knowledge gap is critical, given human reliance on mountain systems for stable water supply and quality. Mountain systems’ increasing vulnerability to climate change and human perturbations motivates the need to improve understanding of integrated mountain hydroclimate (IMHC) systems and their feedbacks and impacts on humans across scales. However, due to large heterogeneity and strong gradients, coupled natural-human processes in mountain regions present significant challenges for observations, modeling, predictions, and projections. Motivated by gaps in mountain hydroclimate understanding, observations, and modeling and the need for credible projections of future changes, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Biological and Environmental Research (BER) program organized a virtual workshop on “Understanding and Predictability of Integrated Mountain Hydroclimate.” Sponsored by BER’s Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD), the workshop aimed to inform and catalyze EESSD’s growing interests in enhancing predictive understanding of IMHC. Organizers structured the workshop to identify (1) knowledge gaps, (2) observational and modeling challenges, (3) short-term (1 to 3 years) and long-term (10 years and beyond) research opportunities, and (4) strategies for fostering collaboration and coordination. To address the outstanding challenges of IMHC, the workshop included two sessions organized by disciplinary, cross-disciplinary, and crosscutting science topics. The disciplinary and cross-disciplinary topics focused on essential IMHC elements: atmosphere, terrestrial, and human systems and their interactions. Breakout sessions on disciplinary and cross-disciplinary topics facilitated identification of crosscutting topics and central emerging themes. Session 1 focused on connecting existing DOE investments to accelerate progress related to scientific challenges in understanding mountain hydroclimate. In Session 2, participants further explored key Session 1 takeaways through the lens of multiagency collaborations and coordination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗