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A cold air outbreak over the Norwegian Sea observed with the Tiros-N Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) and the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I)

Until recently, the scarcity of meteorological observations over polar areas has limited studies of high-latitude weather systems, but now data from polar orbiting satellites offer a new opportunity to observe and describe these systems. TOVS data have been used successfully for delineating synoptic and subsynoptic systems, since they provide the vertical temperature structure of the atmosphere; SSM/I observations have proved valuable for analyzing storms through water vapor and rain determinations. These positive results prompted simultaneous analysis of TOVS and SSM/I observations obtained during a cold air outbreak over the Norwegian Sea. After a description of the instruments and the retrieval schemes, the mutually supporting information from these two independent instruments is discussed. Implications for the monitoring of polar lows are presented.

Claud, Chantal↗

The Estimation of Hydrometeor Profiles from Wideband Microwave Observations

Profiles of the microphysical properties of clouds and raincells are essential in many areas of atmospheric research and operational meteorology. In order to enhance the understanding of the nonlinear and underconstrained relationships between cloud and hydrometeor microphysical profiles and passive microwave brightness temperatures, estimations of cloud profiles for an anvil, a convective, and an updraft region of an oceanic squall were performed. The estimations relied on comparisons between radiative transfer calculations of incrementally estimated microphysical profiles and concurrent dual-altitude wideband brightness temperatures from the 22 February 1993 flight during TOGA-COARE. The wideband observations (10--220 GHz) are necessary for estimating cloud profiles reaching up to 20 km. The low frequencies enhance the rain and cloud water profiles, while the high frequencies are required to detail the higher altitude ice microphysics. A microphysical profile was estimated for each of the three regions of the storm. Each of the three estimated profiles produced calculated brightness temperatures within approximately 10 K of the observations. A majority, of the total iterative adjustment were to the estimated profile's frozen hydrometeor characteristics and were necessary to match the high frequency calculations with the observations. This indicates a need to validate cloud resolving models using high frequencies. Some difficulties matching the 37 GHz observation channels on the DC-8 and ER-2 aircrafts with the calculations simulated at the two aircraft heights (approximately 11 km and 20 km, respectively) were noted and potential causes presented.

Gail M Skofronick-Jackson↗

Responses of Precipitation and Hydrologic Processes to Tropical SST

The goal of the research is to identify the mechanisms in the response of tropical precipitation and atmospheric hydrologic cycle to sea surface temperature (SST) variability at seasonal-to-interannual time scales, and to utilize the knowledge for better understanding of climate feedback processes relevant to global change. As a first step to achieve the goal, we characterize the inter-relationship among convective/stratiform rain, ice/water clouds water vapor, and SST using TRMM satellite data and a cloud-resolving model. We examined the daily hydrologic variables [column water vapor (PW), cloud liquid water (CW), rainfall rates (RR)] as a function of SST using high-resolution data (0.25 x 0.25, daily) derived from TRMM satellite measurements. Comparing the winter of 97/98 (El Nino condition) against the winter of 99/00 (La Nina condition), area-mean values of all four hydrologic variables in cloudy areas within the tropical Pacific are higher in the El Nino winter than in the La Nina winter. This is consistent with previous observational analyses and SST warming experiments (idealized or ENSO-like) that showed the interaction between hydrologic cyclic and radiation at the seasonal to interannual time scales leads to intensified tropical circulation and hydrologic cycle. However, there is evidence that the enhanced hydrologic cycle over the warm pool is accompanied by an expansion of radiatively -driven subsidence in response to a stronger SST gradient between warm pool and surrounding cold pool. The expanding subsidence effectively reduces cloud amounts over the warm pool. Our analysis of daily variability further indicates a more vigorous water cycle characterized by higher PW, CW, and RR in response to overall warming. This is expected from the Clausius Clapeyron relation as a thermodynamic response to warming. However cloudy areas decrease in response to overall warming. This may be due to factors that are fundamentally different. One possibility is that in a warmer climate, there may be alteration in the microphysical processes in clouds, e.g., increased coalescence of cloud size droplets and increased entrainment of dry air from above due to the invigorated convective motions in response to overall warming. As a result, cloud amounts are less. Another interpretation is that, in colder air masses, more ice particles will be produced and, because of their lower densities, are less likely to precipitate, hence the higher cloud amount. This suggests that, when averaged over a sufficiently large area covering both the rising and sinking branches of the tropical circulation, there maybe an increase in the precipitation efficiency in stratiform clouds, in conjunction with increased subsidence in an enhanced water cycle. This is supported by the residence time at different rainrates.

Sui, C.-H.↗

An Overview of Modeling Middle Atmospheric Odd Nitrogen

Odd nitrogen (N, NO, NO2, NO3, N2O5, HNO3, HO2NO2, ClONO2, and BrONO2) constituents are important components in the control of middle atmospheric ozone. Several processes lead to the production of odd nitrogen (NO(sub y)) in the middle atmosphere (stratosphere and mesosphere) including the oxidation of nitrous oxide (N2O), lightning, downflux from the thermosphere, and energetic charged particles (e.g., galactic cosmic rays, solar proton events, and energetic electron precipitation). The dominant production mechanism of NO(sub y) in the stratosphere is N2O oxidation, although other processes contribute. Mesospheric NO(sub y) is influenced by N2O oxidation, downflux from the thermosphere, and energetic charged particles. NO(sub y) is destroyed in the middle atmosphere primarily via two processes: 1) dissociation of NO to form N and O followed by N + NO yielding N2 + O to reform even nitrogen; and 2) transport to the troposphere where HNO3 can be rapidly scavenged in water droplets and rained out of the atmosphere. There are fairly significant differences among global models that predict NO(sub y). NO(sub y) has a fairly long lifetime in the stratosphere (months to years), thus disparate transport in the models probably contributes to many of these differences. Satellite and aircraft measurement provide modeling tests of the various components of NO(sub y). Although some recent reaction rate measurements have led to improvements in model/measurement agreement, significant differences do remain. This presentation will provide an overview of several proposed sources and sinks of NO(sub y) and their regions of importance. Multi-dimensional modeling results for NO(sub y) and its components with comparisons to observations will also be presented.

Jackman, Charles H.↗

Latent Heating Retrieval from TRMM Observations Using a Simplified Thermodynamic Model

A procedure for the retrieval of hydrometeor latent heating from TRMM active and passive observations is presented. The procedure is based on current methods for estimating multiple-species hydrometeor profiles from TRMM observations. The species include: cloud water, cloud ice, rain, and graupel (or snow). A three-dimensional wind field is prescribed based on the retrieved hydrometeor profiles, and, assuming a steady-state, the sources and sinks in the hydrometeor conservation equations are determined. Then, the momentum and thermodynamic equations, in which the heating and cooling are derived from the hydrometeor sources and sinks, are integrated one step forward in time. The hydrometeor sources and sinks are reevaluated based on the new wind field, and the momentum and thermodynamic equations are integrated one more step. The reevalution-integration process is repeated until a steady state is reached. The procedure is tested using cloud model simulations. Cloud-model derived fields are used to synthesize TRMM observations, from which hydrometeor profiles are derived. The procedure is applied to the retrieved hydrometeor profiles, and the latent heating estimates are compared to the actual latent heating produced by the cloud model. Examples of procedure's applications to real TRMM data are also provided.

Grecu, Mircea↗

Evidence from massive siderite beds for a CO2-rich atmosphere before approximately 1.8 billion years ago

It is generally thought that, in order to compensate for lower solar flux and maintain liquid oceans on the early Earth, methane must have been an important greenhouse gas before approximately 2.2 billion years (Gyr) ago. This is based upon a simple thermodynamic calculation that relates the absence of siderite (FeCO3) in some pre-2.2-Gyr palaeosols to atmospheric CO2 concentrations that would have been too low to have provided the necessary greenhouse effect. Using multi-dimensional thermodynamic analyses and geological evidence, we show here that the absence of siderite in palaeosols does not constrain atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Siderite is absent in many palaeosols (both pre- and post-2.2-Gyr in age) because the O2 concentrations and pH conditions in well-aerated soils have favoured the formation of ferric (Fe3+)-rich minerals, such as goethite, rather than siderite. Siderite, however, has formed throughout geological history in subsurface environments, such as euxinic seas, where anaerobic organisms created H2-rich conditions. The abundance of large, massive siderite-rich beds in pre-1.8-Gyr sedimentary sequences and their carbon isotope ratios indicate that the atmospheric CO2 concentration was more than 100 times greater than today, causing the rain and ocean waters to be more acidic than today. We therefore conclude that CO2 alone (without a significant contribution from methane) could have provided the necessary greenhouse effect to maintain liquid oceans on the early Earth.

Greenhouse Effect↗

Seasat--A 25-Year Legacy of Success

Thousands of scientific publications and dozens of textbooks include data from instruments derived from NASA's Seasat. The Seasat mission was launched on June 26, 1978, on an Atlas-Agena rocket from Vandenberg Air Force Base. It was the first Earth-orbiting satellite to carry four complementary microwave experiments--the Radar Altimeter (ALT) to measure ocean surface topography by measuring spacecraft altitude above the ocean surface; the Seasat-A Satellite Scatterometer (SASS), to measure wind speed and direction over the ocean; the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) to measure surface wind speed, ocean surface temperature, atmospheric water vapor content, rain rate, and ice coverage; and the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), to image the ocean surface, polar ice caps, and coastal regions. While originally designed for remote sensing of the Earth's oceans, the legacy of Seasat has had a profound impact in many other areas including solid earth science, hydrology, ecology and planetary science.

Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer↗

Simulation and analysis of natural rain in a wind tunnel via digital image processing techniques

It is desired to simulate natural rain in a wind tunnel in order to investigate its influence on the aerodynamic characteristics of aircraft. Rain simulation nozzles have been developed and tested at JPL. Pulsed laser sheet illumination is used to photograph the droplets in the moving airstream. Digital image processing techniques are applied to these photographs for calculation of rain statistics to evaluate the performance of the nozzles. It is found that fixed hypodermic type nozzles inject too much water to simulate natural rain conditions. A modification uses two aerodynamic spinners to flex a tube in a pseudo-random fashion to distribute the water over a larger area.

Aaron, K. M.↗

Quantitative determination of engine water ingestion

This paper describes a novel non-intrusive optical technique for determination of liquid mass flux in a droplet laden airstream. The technique was developed for quantitative determination of engine water ingestion resulting from heavy rain or wheel spray. Independent measurements of the liquid water content (LWC) of the droplet laden aircraft and of the droplet velocities were made at the simulated nacelle inlet plane for the liquid mass flux determination. The liquid water content was measured by illuminating and photographing the droplets contained within a thin slice of the flow field by means of a sheet of light from a pulsed YAG laser. A fluorescent dye introduced in the water greatly improved the droplet image definition. The droplet velocities were determined from double exposed photographs of the moving droplet field. The technique was initially applied to a steady spray generated in a wind tunnel. It was found that although the spray was initially steady, the aerodynamic breakup process was inherently unsteady. This resulted in a wide variation of the instantaneous liquid water content of the droplet laden airstream. The standard deviation of ten separate LWC measurements was 31 percent of the average. However, the liquid mass flux calculated from the average LWC and droplet velocities came within 10 percent of the known water ingestion rate.

Parikh, P.↗

Quantitative determination of engine water ingestion

A nonintrusive optical technique is described for determination of liquid mass flux in a droplet laden airstream. The techniques were developed for quantitative determination of engine water ingestion resulting from heavy rain or wheel spray. Independent measurements of the liquid water content (LWC) of the droplet laden airstream and of the droplet velocities were made at the stimulated nacelle inlet plane for the liquid mass flux determination. The LWC was measured by illuminating and photographing the droplets contained within a thin slice of the flow field by means of a sheet of light from a pulsed laser. A fluorescent dye introduced in the water enchanced the droplet image definition. The droplet velocities were determined from double exposed photographs of the moving droplet field. The technique was initially applied to a steady spray generated in a wind tunnel. It was found that although the spray was initially steady, the aerodynamic breakup process was inherently unsteady. This resulted in a wide variation of the instantaneous LWC of the droplet laden airstream. The standard deviation of ten separate LWC measurements was 31% of the average. However, the liquid mass flux calculated from the average LWC and droplet velocities came within 10% of the known water ingestion rate.

Parikh, P.↗

Retrieval of Precipitation Profiles from Multiresolution, Multifrequency, Active and Passive Microwave Observations

In this study, a technique for estimating vertical profiles of precipitation from multifrequency, multiresolution active and passive microwave observations is investigated. The technique is applicable to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations and it is based on models that simulate high-resolution brightness temperatures as functions of observed reflectivity profiles and a parameter related to the rain drop-size-distribution. The modeled high-resolution brightness temperatures are used to determine normalized brightness temperature polarizations at the microwave radiometer resolution. An optimal estimation procedure is employed to minimize the differences between the simulated and observed normalized polarizations by adjusting the drop-size-distribution parameter. The impact of other unknowns that are not independent variables in the optimal estimation but affect the retrievals is minimized through statistical parameterizations derived from cloud model simulations. The retrieval technique is investigated using TRMM observations collected during the Kwajalein Experiment (KWAJEX). These observations cover an area extending from 5 deg to deg N latitude and 166 deg to 172 deg E longitude from July to September 1999, and are coincident with various ground-based observations, facilitating a detailed analysis of the retrieved precipitation. Using the method developed in this study, precipitation estimates consistent with both the passive and active TRMM observations are obtained. Various parameters characterizing these estimates, i.e. the rain rate, the precipitation water content, the drop-size-distribution intercept, and the mass weighted mean drop diameter, are in good qualitative agreement with independent experimental and theoretical estimates. Combined rain estimates are in general higher than the official TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) only estimates for the area and the period considered in the study. Ground-based precipitation estimates, derived from an analysis of rain gauge and ground radar data, are in better agreement with the combined estimates than with the TRMM PR-only estimates, which suggests that information useful for improving the radar-only estimates is contained in the brightness temperature data.

Grecu, Mircea↗

Cassini/CIRS Observations of Water Vapor in Saturn's Stratosphere

The Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) on the Cassini spacecraft has obtained numerous spectra of Saturn at varying spectral and spatial resolutions since Saturn Orbit Insertion in 2001. Emission lines due to water vapor in Saturn's stratosphere were first detected using whole-disk observations from the Infrared Space Observatory [1] and subsequently confirmed by the Submillimeter Wave Astronomy Satellite [2], CIRS has detected water and the data permit the retrieval of the latitudinal variation of water on Saturn. Emission lines of H2O on Saturn are very weak in the CIRS data. Thus, large spectral averages as well as improvements in calibration are necessary to detect water vapor. long integrations at the full 0.5/cm spectral resolution were performed at targeted latitudes on Saturn. High emission angles were chosen to enhance stratospheric emission. Over the course of the prime and extended mission a set of observations has been built up spaced roughly every 10 degrees of latitude. Stratospheric temperatures in the 0.5 - 5.0 mbar range were obtained by inverting spectra of CH4 in the v'4 band centered at 1501/cm. The origin of water vapor is believed to be from the ablation of micrometeorites containing eater ice, followed by photochemistry. This external source of oxygen originates either from the Saturn system (from the rings or perhaps from Enceladus) or from the interplanetary medium. Connerney [3] proposed a mechanism to transport water from the inner edge of the B-ring along magnetic field lines to specific latitudes (50N and 44S) on Saturn. Prange et al [4] interpreted a minimum in the abundance of acetylene from ultraviolet spectra gear 41S on Saturn as possibly due to an enhanced influx of water. We will be able to test the "ring rain" mechanism by searching, for localized water vapor enhancement at mid-latitudes. Our results may be used to constrain photochemical models of Saturn's stratosphere [5].

Bjoraker, Gordon↗

Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill.

Shukla, Shraddhanand↗

Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill.

Shukla, Shraddhanand↗

Monitoring environmental state of Alaskan forests with AIRSAR

During March 1988 and May 1991, the JPL airborne synthetic aperture radar, AIRSAR, collected sets of multi-temporal imagery of the Bonanza Creek Experimental Forest near Fairbanks, Alaska. These data sets consist of series of multi-polarized images collected at P-, L-, and C-bands each over a period of a few days. The AIRSAR campaigns were complemented with extensive ground measurements that included observations of both static canopy characteristics such as forest architecture as well as properties that vary on short term time scales such as canopy dielectric conditions. Observations exist for several stands of deciduous and coniferous species including white spruce (Picea glauca), black spruce (Picea mariana), and balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera). Although the duration of each campaign was fairly short, significant changes in environmental conditions caused notable variations in the physiological state of the canopies. During the 1988 campaign, environmental conditions ranged from unseasonably warm to more normal subfreezing temperatures. This permitted AIRSAR observations of frozen and thawed canopy states. During May 1991, ice jams that occurred along the river caused many stands to flood while the subsequent clearing of the river then allowed the waters to recede, leaving a snow covered ground surface. This allowed observations of several stands during both flooded and nonflooded conditions. Furthermore, the local weather varied from clear sunny days to heavy overcast days with some occurrence of rain. Measurements of leaf water potential indicated that this caused significant variations in canopy water status, allowing SAR observations of water stressed and unstressed trees. Mean backscatter from several stands is examined for the various canopy physiological states. The changes in canopy backscatter that occur as a function of environmental and physiological state are analyzed. Preliminary results of a backscatter signature modeling analysis are presented. The implications of using SAR to monitor canopy phenological state are addressed.

Mcdonald, Kyle C.↗

Presenting the Rain-Sea Interaction Facility

The new Rain-Sea Interaction Facility (RSIF) was established at GSFC/WFF and the first finds are presented. The unique feature of this laboratory is the ability to systematically study microwave scattering from a water surface roughened by artificial rain, for which the droplets are at terminal velocity. The fundamental instruments and systems (e.g., the rain simulator, scatterometers, and surface elevation probes) were installed and evaluated during these first experiments - so the majority of the data were obtained with the rain simulator at 1 m above the water tank. From these initial experiments, three new models were proposed: the square-root function for NCS vs. R, the log Gaussian model for ring-wave elevation frequency spectrum, and the Erland probability density distribution for back scattered power. Rain rate is the main input for these models, although the coefficients may be dependent upon other factors (drop-size distribution, fall velocity, radar configuration, etc.). The facility is functional and we foresee collaborative studies with investigators who are engaged in measuring and modeling rain-sea interaction processes.

Bliven, Larry F.↗

The role of multispectral scanners as data sources for EPA hydrologic models

An estimated cost savings of 30% to 50% was realized from using LANDSAT-derived data as input into a program which simulates hydrologic and water quality processes in natural and man-made water systems. Data from the satellite were used in conjunction with EPA's 11-channel multispectral scanner to obtain maps for characterizing the distribution of turbidity plumes in Flathead Lake and to predict the effect of increasing urbanization in Montana's Flathead River Basin on the lake's trophic state. Multispectral data are also being studied as a possible source of the parameters needed to model the buffering capability of lakes in an effort to evaluate the effect of acid rain in the Adirondacks. Water quality in Lake Champlain, Vermont is being classified using data from the LANDSAT and the EPA MSS. Both contact-sensed and MSS data are being used with multivariate statistical analysis to classify the trophic status of 145 lakes in Illinois and to identify water sampling sites in Appalachicola Bay where contaminants threaten Florida's shellfish.

Slack, R.↗

Wind Tunnel Aerodynamic Characteristics of a Transport-type Airfoil in a Simulated Heavy Rain Environment

The effects of simulated heavy rain on the aerodynamic characteristics of an NACA 64-210 airfoil section equipped with leading-and trailing-edge high-lift devices were investigated in the Langley 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel. The model had a chord of 2.5 ft, a span of 8 ft, and was mounted on the tunnel centerline between two large endplates. Aerodynamic measurements in and out of the simulated rain environment were obtained for dynamic pressures of 30 and 50 psf and an angle-of-attack range of 0 to 20 degrees for the cruise configuration. The rain intensity was varied to produce liquid water contents ranging from 16 to 46 gm/cu m. The results obtained for various rain intensity levels and tunnel speeds showed significant losses in maximum lift capability and increases in drag for a given lift as the liquid water content was increased. The results obtained on the landing configuration also indicate a progressive decrease in the angle of attack at which maximum lift occurred and an increase in the slope of the pitching-moment curve as the liquid water content was increased. The sensitivity of test results to the effects of the water surface tension was also investigated. A chemical was introduced into the rain environment that reduced the surface tension of water by a factor of 2. The reduction in the surface tension of water did not significantly alter the level of performance losses for the landing configuration.

Bezos, Gaudy M.↗