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Land use and pollution patterns on the Great Lakes

The author has identified the following significant results. The final mapping of the large watersheds of the Manitowoc and the Oconto was done using the 25% sampling approach. Comparisons were made with earlier strip mapping efforts of the Oconto and Manitowoc watersheds. Regional differences were noted. Strip mapping of the Oconto resulted in overestimation of the amount of agricultural land compared to the random sampling method. For the Manitowoc, the strip mapping approach produced a slight underestimate of agricultural land, and an overestimate of the forest category.

Haugen, R. K.

Using known map category marginal frequencies to improve estimates of thematic map accuracy

By means of two simple sampling plans suggested in the accuracy-assessment literature, it is shown how one can use knowledge of map-category relative sizes to improve estimates of various probabilities. The fact that maximum likelihood estimates of cell probabilities for the simple random sampling and map category-stratified sampling were identical has permitted a unified treatment of the contingency-table analysis. A rigorous analysis of the effect of sampling independently within map categories is made possible by results for the stratified case. It is noted that such matters as optimal sample size selection for the achievement of a desired level of precision in various estimators are irrelevant, since the estimators derived are valid irrespective of how sample sizes are chosen.

Card, D. H.

Notes on SAW Tag Interrogation Techniques

We consider the problem of interrogating a single SAW RFID tag with a known ID and known range in the presence of multiple interfering tags under the following assumptions: (1) The RF propagation environment is well approximated as a simple delay channel with geometric power-decay constant alpha >/= 2. (2) The interfering tag IDs are unknown but well approximated as independent, identically distributed random samples from a probability distribution of tag ID waveforms with known second-order properties, and the tag of interest is drawn independently from the same distribution. (3) The ranges of the interfering tags are unknown but well approximated as independent, identically distributed realizations of a random variable rho with a known probability distribution f(sub rho) , and the tag ranges are independent of the tag ID waveforms. In particular, we model the tag waveforms as random impulse responses from a wide-sense-stationary, uncorrelated-scattering (WSSUS) fading channel with known bandwidth and scattering function. A brief discussion of the properties of such channels and the notation used to describe them in this document is given in the Appendix. Under these assumptions, we derive the expression for the output signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for an arbitrary combination of transmitted interrogation signal and linear receiver filter. Based on this expression, we derive the optimal interrogator configuration (i.e., transmitted signal/receiver filter combination) in the two extreme noise/interference regimes, i.e., noise-limited and interference-limited, under the additional assumption that the coherence bandwidth of the tags is much smaller than the total tag bandwidth. Finally, we evaluate the performance of both optimal interrogators over a broad range of operating scenarios using both numerical simulation based on the assumed model and Monte Carlo simulation based on a small sample of measured tag waveforms. The performance evaluation results not only provide guidelines for proper interrogator design, but also provide some insight on the validity of the assumed signal model. It should be noted that the assumption that the impulse response of the tag of interest is known precisely implies that the temperature and range of the tag are also known precisely, which is generally not the case in practice. However, analyzing interrogator performance under this simplifying assumption is much more straightforward and still provides a great deal of insight into the nature of the problem.

Barton, Richard J.

Hybrid-BPR (Bayesian Personalized Ranking with Feature Embeddings and Explicit Negative Sampling) [SWR-26-039]

Hybrid-BPR is a Python library for Bayesian Personalized Ranking (BPR) with two key capabilities that go beyond standard BPR implementations: 1. User and item feature embeddings - incorporate content-based signals (genres, tags, metadata) alongside collaborative filtering. 2. Implicit negative interactions - use observed non-interactions (e.g. viewed-but-not-clicked) as negative training signal instead of random sampling from the full item space. The software is built for recommender systems research with MLflow experiment tracking, parallel hyperparameter sweeps, and standard ranking metrics.

Sandhu, Rimple [National Laboratory of the Rockies

Comparison of Precision of Biomass Estimates in Regional Field Sample Surveys and Airborne LiDAR-Assisted Surveys in Hedmark County, Norway

Airborne scanning LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) has emerged as a promising tool to provide auxiliary data for sample surveys aiming at estimation of above-ground tree biomass (AGB), with potential applications in REDD forest monitoring. For larger geographical regions such as counties, states or nations, it is not feasible to collect airborne LiDAR data continuously ("wall-to-wall") over the entire area of interest. Two-stage cluster survey designs have therefore been demonstrated by which LiDAR data are collected along selected individual flight-lines treated as clusters and with ground plots sampled along these LiDAR swaths. Recently, analytical AGB estimators and associated variance estimators that quantify the sampling variability have been proposed. Empirical studies employing these estimators have shown a seemingly equal or even larger uncertainty of the AGB estimates obtained with extensive use of LiDAR data to support the estimation as compared to pure field-based estimates employing estimators appropriate under simple random sampling (SRS). However, comparison of uncertainty estimates under SRS and sophisticated two-stage designs is complicated by large differences in the designs and assumptions. In this study, probability-based principles to estimation and inference were followed. We assumed designs of a field sample and a LiDAR-assisted survey of Hedmark County (HC) (27,390 km2), Norway, considered to be more comparable than those assumed in previous studies. The field sample consisted of 659 systematically distributed National Forest Inventory (NFI) plots and the airborne scanning LiDAR data were collected along 53 parallel flight-lines flown over the NFI plots. We compared AGB estimates based on the field survey only assuming SRS against corresponding estimates assuming two-phase (double) sampling with LiDAR and employing model-assisted estimators. We also compared AGB estimates based on the field survey only assuming two-stage sampling (the NFI plots being grouped in clusters) against corresponding estimates assuming two-stage sampling with the LiDAR and employing model-assisted estimators. For each of the two comparisons, the standard errors of the AGB estimates were consistently lower for the LiDAR-assisted designs. The overall reduction of the standard errors in the LiDAR-assisted estimation was around 40-60% compared to the pure field survey. We conclude that the previously proposed two-stage model-assisted estimators are inappropriate for surveys with unequal lengths of the LiDAR flight-lines and new estimators are needed. Some options for design of LiDAR-assisted sample surveys under REDD are also discussed, which capitalize on the flexibility offered when the field survey is designed as an integrated part of the overall survey design as opposed to previous LiDAR-assisted sample surveys in the boreal and temperate zones which have been restricted by the current design of an existing NFI.

Comparison

Effects of cardiac phase on diameter measurements from coronary cineangiograms

The measurement variability of end-diastolic frames is compared with frames taken from the other portions of the cardiac cycle. Two computer measurements, average diameter and minimum, are obtained for every frame of two complete cardiac cycles in angiograms of 20 subjects. Six schemes for sampling frames in various portions of the cardiac cycle are defined and the standard deviation is calculated for pairs of measurements from each scheme. The results suggest that the best strategy for frame selection is to use sequential frames in end-diastole. However, it is noted that if random samples are taken anywhere in the cardiac cycle instead of sequentially in end-diastole, the variability of two vessel edge measures changes from 4.9 percent to 6.3 percent, which is considered to be a small penalty.

Selzer, Robert H.

A CM chondrite cluster and CM streams

An elongate year-day concentration of CM meteoroid falls between 1921 and 1969 is inconsistent with a random flux of CM meteoroids and suggests that most or all such meteorites, and perhaps the Kaidun C-E chondrite breccia, resulted from streams of meteoroids in nearly circular, Earth-like orbits. To establish whether the post-1920 cluster might have arisen from random sampling, we determined the year-day distribution of 14 falls between 1879 and 1969 by treating each as the corner of a cell of specified dimensions (e.g. 30 years x 30 days) and calculated how many falls occurred in that cell. We then compared the CM cell distribution with random distributions over the same range of years. The results show that for 30 x 30 and 45 x 45 cells, fewer than 5 percent of random sets match the CM distribution with respect to maximum cell content and number of one-fall cells.

Dodd, R. T.

Radiation effects in nematodes: Results from IML-1 experiments

The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans was exposed to natural space radiation using the ESA biorack facility aboard Spacelab on International Microgravity Laboratory 1, STS-42. For the major experimental objective dormant animals were suspended in buffer or on agar or immobilized next to CR-39 plastic nuclear track detectors to correlate fluence of HZE particles with genetic events. This configuration was used to isolate mutations in a set of 350 essential genes as well as in the unc-22 structural gene. From flight samples 13 mutants in the unc-22 gene were isolated along with 53 lethal mutations from autosomal regions balanced by a translocation eT1(III;V). Preliminary analysis suggests that mutants from worms correlated with specific cosmic ray tracks may have a higher proportion of rearrangements than those isolated from tube cultures on a randomly sampled basis. Flight sample mutation rate was approximately 8-fold higher than ground controls which exhibited laboratory spontaneous frequencies.

Nelson, G. A.

Electromagnetic Scattering by Fully Ordered and Quasi-Random Rigid Particulate Samples

In this paper we have analyzed circumstances under which a rigid particulate sample can behave optically as a true discrete random medium consisting of particles randomly moving relative to each other during measurement. To this end, we applied the numerically exact superposition T-matrix method to model far-field scattering characteristics of fully ordered and quasi-randomly arranged rigid multiparticle groups in fixed and random orientations. We have shown that, in and of itself, averaging optical observables over movements of a rigid sample as a whole is insufficient unless it is combined with a quasi-random arrangement of the constituent particles in the sample. Otherwise, certain scattering effects typical of discrete random media (including some manifestations of coherent backscattering) may not be accurately replicated.

Radiative transfer

A Comparison of Techniques for Scheduling Earth-Observing Satellites

Scheduling observations by coordinated fleets of Earth Observing Satellites (EOS) involves large search spaces, complex constraints and poorly understood bottlenecks, conditions where evolutionary and related algorithms are often effective. However, there are many such algorithms and the best one to use is not clear. Here we compare multiple variants of the genetic algorithm: stochastic hill climbing, simulated annealing, squeaky wheel optimization and iterated sampling on ten realistically-sized EOS scheduling problems. Schedules are represented by a permutation (non-temperal ordering) of the observation requests. A simple deterministic scheduler assigns times and resources to each observation request in the order indicated by the permutation, discarding those that violate the constraints created by previously scheduled observations. Simulated annealing performs best. Random mutation outperform a more 'intelligent' mutator. Furthermore, the best mutator, by a small margin, was a novel approach we call temperature dependent random sampling that makes large changes in the early stages of evolution and smaller changes towards the end of search.

Globus, Al

Monte Carlo investigation of thrust imbalance of solid rocket motor pairs

The Monte Carlo method of statistical analysis is used to investigate the theoretical thrust imbalance of pairs of solid rocket motors (SRMs) firing in parallel. Sets of the significant variables are selected using a random sampling technique and the imbalance calculated for a large number of motor pairs using a simplified, but comprehensive, model of the internal ballistics. The treatment of burning surface geometry allows for the variations in the ovality and alignment of the motor case and mandrel as well as those arising from differences in the basic size dimensions and propellant properties. The analysis is used to predict the thrust-time characteristics of 130 randomly selected pairs of Titan IIIC SRMs. A statistical comparison of the results with test data for 20 pairs shows the theory underpredicts the standard deviation in maximum thrust imbalance by 20% with variability in burning times matched within 2%. The range in thrust imbalance of Space Shuttle type SRM pairs is also estimated using applicable tolerances and variabilities and a correction factor based on the Titan IIIC analysis.

Sforzini, R. H.

Field size, length, and width distributions based on LACIE ground truth data

The development of agricultural remote sensing systems requires knowledge of agricultural field size distributions so that the sensors, sampling frames, image interpretation schemes, registration systems, and classification systems can be properly designed. Malila et al. (1976) studied the field size distribution for wheat and all other crops in two Kansas LACIE (Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment) intensive test sites using ground observations of the crops and measurements of their field areas based on current year rectified aerial photomaps. The field area and size distributions reported in the present investigation are derived from a representative subset of a stratified random sample of LACIE sample segments. In contrast to previous work, the obtained results indicate that most field-size distributions are not log-normally distributed. The most common field size observed in this study was 10 acres for most crops studied.

Pitts, D. E.

Characterization of fault recovery through fault injection on FTMP

The development of fault-injection procedures and statistical analysis techniques to characterize the fault recovery of fault-tolerant systems is described. Pin-level fault-injection was conducted on a fault-tolerant microprocessor computer in order to generate data to assess the utility of current fault-injection sampling methods. The validity of common reliability-modeling assumptions concerning the statistical distribution of recovery times is investigated. A multiple comparison analysis for detecting behavior variations, and a distribution fitting for determining the best fit for the data were conducted. It is observed that the detection behavior is not homogeneous across all data sets, and that none of the factors under experimental control can account for the observed groupings of behavior. It is determined that no single distribution fits all the data sets, and that stratified random sampling and statistically robust parameter-estimation techniques are required to characterize fault detection time.

Finelli, George B.

Forest Biomass Mapping From Lidar and Radar Synergies

The use of lidar and radar instruments to measure forest structure attributes such as height and biomass at global scales is being considered for a future Earth Observation satellite mission, DESDynI (Deformation, Ecosystem Structure, and Dynamics of Ice). Large footprint lidar makes a direct measurement of the heights of scatterers in the illuminated footprint and can yield accurate information about the vertical profile of the canopy within lidar footprint samples. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) is known to sense the canopy volume, especially at longer wavelengths and provides image data. Methods for biomass mapping by a combination of lidar sampling and radar mapping need to be developed. In this study, several issues in this respect were investigated using aircraft borne lidar and SAR data in Howland, Maine, USA. The stepwise regression selected the height indices rh50 and rh75 of the Laser Vegetation Imaging Sensor (LVIS) data for predicting field measured biomass with a R(exp 2) of 0.71 and RMSE of 31.33 Mg/ha. The above-ground biomass map generated from this regression model was considered to represent the true biomass of the area and used as a reference map since no better biomass map exists for the area. Random samples were taken from the biomass map and the correlation between the sampled biomass and co-located SAR signature was studied. The best models were used to extend the biomass from lidar samples into all forested areas in the study area, which mimics a procedure that could be used for the future DESDYnI Mission. It was found that depending on the data types used (quad-pol or dual-pol) the SAR data can predict the lidar biomass samples with R2 of 0.63-0.71, RMSE of 32.0-28.2 Mg/ha up to biomass levels of 200-250 Mg/ha. The mean biomass of the study area calculated from the biomass maps generated by lidar- SAR synergy 63 was within 10% of the reference biomass map derived from LVIS data. The results from this study are preliminary, but do show the potential of the combined use of lidar samples and radar imagery for forest biomass mapping. Various issues regarding lidar/radar data synergies for biomass mapping are discussed in the paper.

Sun, Guoqing

Potential of VIIRS Time Series Data for Aiding the USDA Forest Service Early Warning System for Forest Health Threats: A Gypsy Moth Defoliation Case Study

This report details one of three experiments performed during FY 2007 for the NASA RPC (Rapid Prototyping Capability) at Stennis Space Center. This RPC experiment assesses the potential of VIIRS (Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data for detecting and monitoring forest defoliation from the non-native Eurasian gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar). The intent of the RPC experiment was to assess the degree to which VIIRS data can provide forest disturbance monitoring information as an input to a forest threat EWS (Early Warning System) as compared to the level of information that can be obtained from MODIS data. The USDA Forest Service (USFS) plans to use MODIS products for generating broad-scaled, regional monitoring products as input to an EWS for forest health threat assessment. NASA SSC is helping the USFS to evaluate and integrate currently available satellite remote sensing technologies and data products for the EWS, including the use of MODIS products for regional monitoring of forest disturbance. Gypsy moth defoliation of the mid-Appalachian highland region was selected as a case study. Gypsy moth is one of eight major forest insect threats listed in the Healthy Forest Restoration Act (HFRA) of 2003; the gypsy moth threatens eastern U.S. hardwood forests, which are also a concern highlighted in the HFRA of 2003. This region was selected for the project because extensive gypsy moth defoliation occurred there over multiple years during the MODIS operational period. This RPC experiment is relevant to several nationally important mapping applications, including agricultural efficiency, coastal management, ecological forecasting, disaster management, and carbon management. In this experiment, MODIS data and VIIRS data simulated from MODIS were assessed for their ability to contribute broad, regional geospatial information on gypsy moth defoliation. Landsat and ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) data were used to assess the quality of gypsy moth defoliation mapping products derived from MODIS data and from simulated VIIRS data. The project focused on use of data from MODIS Terra as opposed to MODIS Aqua mainly because only MODIS Terra data was collected during 2000 and 2001-years with comparatively high amounts of gypsy moth defoliation within the study area. The project assessed the quality of VIIRS data simulation products. Hyperion data was employed to assess the quality of MODIS-based VIIRS simulation datasets using image correlation analysis techniques. The ART (Application Research Toolbox) software was used for data simulation. Correlation analysis between MODIS-simulated VIIRS data and Hyperion-simulated VIIRS data for red, NIR (near-infrared), and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) image data products collectively indicate that useful, effective VIIRS simulations can be produced using Hyperion and MODIS data sources. The r(exp 2) for red, NIR, and NDVI products were 0.56, 0.63, and 0.62, respectively, indicating a moderately high correlation between the 2 data sources. Temporal decorrelation from different data acquisition times and image misregistration may have lowered correlation results. The RPC experiment also generated MODIS-based time series data products using the TSPT (Time Series Product Tool) software. Time series of simulated VIIRS NDVI products were produced at approximately 400-meter resolution GSD (Ground Sampling Distance) at nadir for comparison to MODIS NDVI products at either 250- or 500-meter GSD. The project also computed MODIS (MOD02) NDMI (Normalized Difference Moisture Index) products at 500-meter GSD for comparison to NDVI-based products. For each year during 2000-2006, MODIS and VIIRS (simulated from MOD02) time series were computed during the peak gypsy moth defoliation time frame in the study area (approximately June 10 through July 27). Gypsy moth defoliation mapping products from simated VIIRS and MOD02 time series were produced using multiple methods, including image classification and change detection via image differencing. The latter enabled an automated defoliation detection product computed using percent change in maximum NDVI for a peak defoliation period during 2001 compared to maximum NDVI across the entire 2000-2006 time frame. Final gypsy moth defoliation mapping products were assessed for accuracy using randomly sampled locations found on available geospatial reference data (Landsat and ASTER data in conjunction with defoliation map data from the USFS). Extensive gypsy moth defoliation patches were evident on screen displays of multitemporal color composites derived from MODIS data and from simulated VIIRS vegetation index data. Such defoliation was particularly evident for 2001, although widespread denuded forests were also seen for 2000 and 2003. These visualizations were validated using aforementioned reference data. Defoliation patches were visible on displays of MODIS-based NDVI and NDMI data. The viewing of apparent defoliation patches on all of these products necessitated adoption of a specialized temporal data processing method (e.g., maximum NDVI during the peak defoliation time frame). The frequency of cloud cover necessitated this approach. Multitemporal simulated VIIRS and MODIS Terra data both produced effective general classifications of defoliated forest versus other land cover. For 2001, the MOD02-simulated VIIRS 400-meter NDVI classification produced a similar yet slightly lower overall accuracy (87.28 percent with 0.72 Kappa) than the MOD02 250-meter NDVI classification (88.44 percent with 0.75 Kappa). The MOD13 250-meter NDVI classification had a lower overall accuracy (79.13 percent) and a much lower Kappa (0.46). The report discusses accuracy assessment results in much more detail, comparing overall classification and individual class accuracy statistics for simulated VIIRS 400-meter NDVI, MOD02 250-meter NDVI, MOD02-500 meter NDVI, MOD13 250-meter NDVI, and MOD02 500-meter NDMI classifications. Automated defoliation detection products from simulated VIIRS and MOD02 data for 2001 also yielded similar, relatively high overall classification accuracy (85.55 percent for the VIIRS 400-meter NDVI versus 87.28 percent for the MOD02 250-meter NDVI). In contrast, the USFS aerial sketch map of gypsy moth defoliation showed a lower overall classification accuracy at 73.64 percent. The overall classification Kappa values were also similar for the VIIRS (approximately 0.67 Kappa) versus the MOD02 (approximately 0.72 Kappa) automated defoliation detection product, which were much higher than the values exhibited by the USFS sketch map product (overall Kappa of approximately 0.47). The report provides additional details on the accuracy of automated gypsy moth defoliation detection products compared with USFS sketch maps. The results suggest that VIIRS data can be effectively simulated from MODIS data and that VIIRS data will produce gypsy moth defoliation mapping products that are similar to MODIS-based products. The results of the RPC experiment indicate that VIIRS and MODIS data products have good potential for integration into the forest threat EWS. The accuracy assessment was performed only for 2001 because of time constraints and a relative scarcity of cloud-free Landsat and ASTER data for the peak defoliation period of the other years in the 2000-2006 time series. Additional work should be performed to assess the accuracy of gypsy moth defoliation detection products for additional years.The study area (mid-Appalachian highlands) and application (gypsy moth forest defoliation) are not necessarily representative of all forested regions and of all forest threat disturbance agents. Additional work should be performed on other inland and coastal regions as well as for other major forest threats.

Spruce, Joseph P.

Statistics of base polytopes in F-theory

We propose a new statistical ensemble of toric bases for elliptic Calabi-Yaus used in F-theory models, by focusing on only the convex hull of the base, i.e., the base polytope. This physically motivated coarse-graining greatly simplifies the combinatorial complexity of the part of the 4d F-theory landscape with toric bases. We develop a Monte Carlo approach that randomly samples the base polytopes within fixed boxes, with proper statistical weights. We first apply the algorithm to the set of 2d base polytopes, generating an enlarged set of toric 2d bases that include certain types of codimension-two (4,6) points, and we validate our approach against exact numbers. We then explore the set of 3d base polytopes which fit in a set of “maximal” 3d boxes, and estimate the total number of inequivalent 3d base polytopes to be 10 85 –10 90 . We provide statistical data such as the distribution of non-Higgsable gauge groups on these bases. Amusingly, a similar method can also be applied to generate reflexive polytopes in various dimensions. In both the reflexive and base polytope cases, the number of relevant polytopes obeys a Gaussian distribution as a function of the number of vertices, which can be understood in terms of other results on random polytopes in the math literature.

Differential and algebraic geometry

Real classical shadows

Efficiently learning expectation values of a quantum state using classical shadow tomography has become a fundamental task in quantum information theory. In a classical shadows protocol, one measures a state in a chosen basis $\mathcal{W}$ after it has evolved under a unitary transformation randomly sampled from a chosen distribution $\mathcal{U}$. In this work we study the case where $\mathcal{U}$ corresponds to either local or global orthogonal Clifford gates, and $\mathcal{W}$ consists of real-valued vectors. Our results show that for various situations of interest, this ‘real’ classical shadow protocol improves the sample complexity over the standard scheme based on general Clifford unitaries. For example, when one is interested in estimating the expectation values of arbitrary real-valued observables, global orthogonal Cliffords typically decrease the required number of samples by a factor of two. More dramatically, for k-local observables composed only of real-valued Pauli operators, sampling local orthogonal Cliffords leads to a reduction by an exponential-in-k factor in the sample complexity over local unitary Cliffords. Finally, we show that by measuring in a basis containing complex-valued vectors, orthogonal shadows can, in the limit of large system size, exactly reproduce the original unitary shadows protocol.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC

Active learning for the design of polycrystalline textures using conditional normalizing flows

Generative modeling has opened new avenues for solving previously intractable materials design problems. However, these new opportunities are accompanied by a drastic increase in the required amount of training data. This is in stark juxtaposition to the high expense and difficulty in curating such large materials datasets. In this work, we propose a novel framework for integrating generative models within an active learning loop. Further, this enables the training of generative models with datasets significantly smaller than what has previously been demonstrated, providing a direct route for their application in data constrained environments. The functionality of this framework is then demonstrated by addressing the challenge of designing polycrystalline textures associated with target anisotropic mechanical properties. The developed protocol exhibited a cost reduction between 14 to 18 times over a randomly sampled experimental design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE