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At least 109 records · Page 6

Aerial Videography From Locally Launched Rockets

A method of quickly collecting digital imagery of ground areas from video cameras carried aboard locally launched rockets has been developed. The method can be used, for example, to record rare or episodic events or to gather image data to guide decisions regarding treatment of agricultural fields or fighting wildfires. The method involves acquisition and digitization of a video frame at a known time along with information on the position and orientation of the rocket and camera at that time. The position and orientation data are obtained by use of a Global Positioning System receiver and a digital magnetic compass carried aboard the rocket. These data are radioed to a ground station, where they are processed, by a real-time algorithm, into georeferenced position and orientation data. The algorithm also generates a file of transformation parameters that account for the variation of image magnification and distortion associated with the position and orientation of the camera relative to the ground scene depicted in the image. As the altitude, horizontal position, and orientation of the rocket change between image frames, the algorithm calculates the corresponding new georeferenced position and orientation data and the associated transformation parameters. The output imagery can be rendered in any of a variety of formats. The figure presents an example of one such format.

Lyle, Stacey D.↗

Effect of Baseline Period on Quantification of Climate Extremes over the United States

Extreme weather events, including heatwaves, heavy precipitation, and drought, have a large impact on society through human health, destruction of infrastructure, ecological change, and economic losses. Reanalyses such as NASA’s Modern Era Retrospective Analysis, version 2 (MERRA-2) are a valuable tool for analyzing past extreme events to determine their underlying causes and how extremes have changed over the past four decades. The detection of extreme events relies on a threshold for precipitation or temperature that is derived using a reference period, which can then be used to determine how extreme an event was or what the return period is. Operational centers typically use a 30-year climatology period that shifts in time every ten years, while the World Meteorological Organization suggests that the maximum amount of data should be included for the detection of extreme events due to their rare occurrence. As global and regional climate continues to change, the interpretation of extreme events is reliant on the baseline period that is used for the underlying thresholds and can be a source of uncertainty for the policy making community. Three baseline periods – 1981-2010, 1991-2020, and 1981-2020 – will be used to compute percentiles of temperature and precipitation across the contiguous United States and will then by employed to determine monthly indices representing heatwaves, cold spells, and extreme precipitation events. A spatial and temporal analysis of the resulting extreme weather indices will demonstrate the appropriateness for each baseline period for the evaluation of extreme events.

Extremes↗

Mechanisms and Consequences of Intra-Crystalline Enrichment of Ancient Radiogenic Pb in Detrital Hadean Zircons from the Jack Hills, Western Australia

The recent discovery of Pb* (radiogenic lead) -enriched domains (PEDs) in zircon using high-resolution scanning ion imaging, atom probe tomography and transmission electron microscopy indicates that the U-Pb isotopic system in zircon can be affected not only by Pb* loss but also by intra-crystalline Pb* enrichment. However, the formation mechanism of PEDs and the consequences for in-situ U-Pb dating remain elusive. To further understand these issues, scanning ion imaging and U-Pb dating were carried out on 51 Hadean detrital zircon grains from the Jack Hills, Western Australia. Of these, 8 grains were found to contain micrometer-scale PEDs with elevated Pb-207 and Pb-206 in the ion images. Isotope profiles across these PEDs confirm that they represent unsupported Pb* resulting from intra-grain mobilization and local enrichment of Pb* during ancient overprinting events. The PEDs are rare in most grains, with only 1 – 3 Pb* hotspots present in any ~70 μm × 70 μm imaged area, and are located either in dark-CL, high-U growth zones, or associated with bright-CL, low-Th recrystallized domains, suggesting that they were likely formed by local-scale processes. The PEDs located in dark-CL, high-U growth zones likely resulted from Pb* trapped in local, interconnected pathways produced by radiation damage during thermal overprinting events. Those associated with bright-CL, low-Th domains are interpreted as Pb* concentrated in nanoscale pores formed during fluid-present recrystallization of non-metamict zircon. Our interpretations therefore imply that intra-crystalline enrichment of Pb* in zircon can occur at various scales and through diverse mechanisms. Age calculations based on the ion images demonstrate that incorporation of PEDs in conventional in-situ SIMS spots produces spuriously old ages that are either reversely discordant or concordant, depending on the time of Pb* mobilization and the analytical precision. The implication is that careful investigation of intra-grain distribution of U-Th-Pb isotopes is required in order to better understand the U-Pb isotopic system and to obtain reliable crystallization ages for ancient zircons affected by complex Pb* mobilization and redistribution.

Unsupported radiogenic lead↗

Identifying Common Coordination Procedures across Extensible Traffic Management (xTM) to Integrate xTM Operations into the National Airspace System

New categories of missions and vehicle types, such as drone delivery services, on-demand air taxi, and high-altitude long-endurance (HALE) vehicles are being proposed to operate using a novel, highly automated information exchange infrastructure and a community-based, cooperative traffic management concept. Collectively, these new operations are called Extensible Traffic Management (xTM). As these xTM vehicles become more prevalent, their operations will increasingly overlap with existing conventional aircraft and with each other. In order to seamlessly co-exist with current conventional aircraft operations, new coordination procedures, tools and services will be needed to integrate xTM into the future National Airspace System (NAS). In our prior work, we have identified a set of use cases for xTM interactions with air traffic control (ATC), categorized across different xTM operations based on trigger events. Events consisted of ones such as nominal xTM vehicle transition into the ATC environment or an off-nominal emergency landing situation. In this paper, we have extended the prior work to identify commonalities in the coordination procedures across xTM, as well as differences that are specific to the individual xTM operations. The overall results showed that two types of xTM-ATC interactions were prevalent: 1) xTM vehicles transitioning between xTM and ATC operational environments; 2) xTM vehicles being allowed to continue xTM operations in areas that are normally controlled by ATC. The results also suggested that emergency and rare off-nominal events may need specialized procedures for each vehicle type. The overall results suggest that there is a pathway to define a common method of handling and integrating diverse xTM operations in the future NAS, but there need to be procedures for individualized handling of xTM vehicles in infrequent, safety-critical events.

Extensible Traffic Management (xTM)↗

Semi-Supervised Eigenbasis Novelty Detection

Recent discoveries in high-time-resolution radio astronomy data have focused attention on a new class of events. Fast transients are rare pulses of radio frequency energy lasting from microseconds to seconds that might be produced by a variety of exotic astrophysical phenomena. For example, X-ray bursts, neutron stars, and active galactic nuclei are all possible sources of short-duration, transient radio signals. It is difficult to anticipate where such signals might appear, and they are most commonly discovered through analysis of high-time- resolution data that had been collected for other purposes. Transients are often faint and difficult to detect, so improved detection algorithms can directly benefit the science yield of all such commensal monitoring. A new detection algorithm learns a low-dimensional linear manifold for describing the normal data. High reconstruction error indicates a novel signal that does not match the patterns of normal data. One unsupervised portion of the manifold model adapts its representation in response to recent data. A second supervised portion of the model is made of a basis trained in advance using labeled examples of RFI; this prevents false positives due to these events. For a linear model, an orthonormalization operation is used to combine these bases prior to the anomaly detection decision. Another novel aspect of the approach lies in combining basis vectors learned in an unsupervised, online fashion from the data stream with supervised basis vectors learned in advance from known examples of false alarms. Adaptive, data-driven detection is achieved that is also informed by existing domain knowledge about signals that may be statistically anomalous, but are not interesting and should therefore be ignored. The method was evaluated using data from the Parkes Multibeam Survey. This data set was originally collected to search for pulsars, which are astronomical sources that emit radio pulses at regular periods. However, several non-pulsar anomalies have recently been discovered in this dataset, making it a compelling test case. By explicitly filtering known false alarm patterns, the approach yields significantly better performance than current transient detection methods.

Wagstaff, Kiri L.↗

Fire Safety in the Low-Gravity Spacecraft Environment

Research in microgravity (low-gravity) combustion promises innovations and improvements in fire prevention and response for human-crew spacecraft. Findings indicate that material flammability and fire spread in microgravity are significantly affected by atmospheric flow rate, oxygen concentration, and diluent composition. This information can lead to modifications and correlations to standard material-assessment tests for prediction of fire resistance in space. Research on smoke-particle changes in microgravity promises future improvements and increased sensitivity of smoke detectors in spacecraft. Research on fire suppression by extinguishing agents and venting can yield new information on effective control of the rare, but serious fire events in spacecraft.

Friedman, Robert↗

Applying Monte Carlo Simulation to Launch Vehicle Design and Requirements Analysis

This Technical Publication (TP) is meant to address a number of topics related to the application of Monte Carlo simulation to launch vehicle design and requirements analysis. Although the focus is on a launch vehicle application, the methods may be applied to other complex systems as well. The TP is organized so that all the important topics are covered in the main text, and detailed derivations are in the appendices. The TP first introduces Monte Carlo simulation and the major topics to be discussed, including discussion of the input distributions for Monte Carlo runs, testing the simulation, how many runs are necessary for verification of requirements, what to do if results are desired for events that happen only rarely, and postprocessing, including analyzing any failed runs, examples of useful output products, and statistical information for generating desired results from the output data. Topics in the appendices include some tables for requirements verification, derivation of the number of runs required and generation of output probabilistic data with consumer risk included, derivation of launch vehicle models to include possible variations of assembled vehicles, minimization of a consumable to achieve a two-dimensional statistical result, recontact probability during staging, ensuring duplicated Monte Carlo random variations, and importance sampling.

Hanson, J. M.↗

Multiple-Beam Detection of Fast Transient Radio Sources

A method has been designed for using multiple independent stations to discriminate fast transient radio sources from local anomalies, such as antenna noise or radio frequency interference (RFI). This can improve the sensitivity of incoherent detection for geographically separated stations such as the very long baseline array (VLBA), the future square kilometer array (SKA), or any other coincident observations by multiple separated receivers. The transients are short, broadband pulses of radio energy, often just a few milliseconds long, emitted by a variety of exotic astronomical phenomena. They generally represent rare, high-energy events making them of great scientific value. For RFI-robust adaptive detection of transients, using multiple stations, a family of algorithms has been developed. The technique exploits the fact that the separated stations constitute statistically independent samples of the target. This can be used to adaptively ignore RFI events for superior sensitivity. If the antenna signals are independent and identically distributed (IID), then RFI events are simply outlier data points that can be removed through robust estimation such as a trimmed or Winsorized estimator. The alternative "trimmed" estimator is considered, which excises the strongest n signals from the list of short-beamed intensities. Because local RFI is independent at each antenna, this interference is unlikely to occur at many antennas on the same step. Trimming the strongest signals provides robustness to RFI that can theoretically outperform even the detection performance of the same number of antennas at a single site. This algorithm requires sorting the signals at each time step and dispersion measure, an operation that is computationally tractable for existing array sizes. An alternative uses the various stations to form an ensemble estimate of the conditional density function (CDF) evaluated at each time step. Both methods outperform standard detection strategies on a test sequence of VLBA data, and both are efficient enough for deployment in real-time, online transient detection applications.

Thompson, David R.↗

Characteristics of Ephemeral Coronal Holes

Small-scale ephemeral coronal holes may be a recurring feature on the solar disk but have received comparatively little attention. These events are characterized by compact structures and short total lifetimes, which are substantially less than a solar disk crossing. We present a systematic search for these events, using Atmospheric Imaging Assembly extreme ultraviolet image data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory, covering the time period of 2010–2015. Following strict criteria, this search yielded four clear examples of the ephemeral coronal hole phenomenon. The properties of each event are characterized, including their total lifetime, growth and decay rates, and areas. The magnetic properties of these events are also determined using Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager data. Based on these four events, ephemeral coronal holes experience rapid initial growth of up to ∼3000 Msq.m/hr, while the decay phases are typically more gradual. Like conventional coronal holes, the mean magnetic field in each ephemeral coronal hole displays a consistent polarity, with mean magnetic flux densities generally <10 G. No evidence of a corresponding signature is seen in solar wind data at 1 au. Further study is needed to determine whether ephemeral coronal holes are under reported events or are truly rare phenomena.

Inglis, A. R.↗

The role of polar stratospheric clouds on total ozone minihole events

Using seven years of data from tha SAM 2 (Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement 2) and TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) instruments, along with 70 mbar temperatures extracted from an NMC analysis, the effect of the austral spring polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) on the formation of total ozone miniholes is investigated. A total ozone minihole event is designated as the rapid decrease of more than 20 DU of total ozone over a time period of a day and a spatial extent of approximately 1000 by 1000 km. The severe decrease of total ozone during these minihole events could be explained in part by PSC being formed at altitudes of 10 to 24 km and preventing scattered UV radiation from ozone below the cloud from reaching the TOMS instrument. A result of the cloud's opaqueness is that the total ozone retrieval from TOMS data would underestimate the ozone column in the vicinity of the PSC. The approach to investigate the effect of PSC on total ozone was to use SAM 2 aerosol extinction values in conjunction with NMC stratospheric temperatures to determine if PSC are present during total ozone minihole events occurring during August and September, 1979 to 1986. The minihole events during these seven years were divided into two types: type 1, where the minihole region of 24 hour darkness from regions exposed to sunlight, and type 2, where the minihole occurred 5 to 10 degrees north of the terminator. The presence of PSC in a given region was ascertained by a maximum aerosol extinction greater than .006/km occurring with a temperature less than 189 K. It is found that PSC are consistently present with type 2 minihole events. This is contrasted with PSC rarely occurring in the same vicinity of type 2 miniholes. Also observed of that type 1 minihole events have minimum total ozone values which are on the average 3 to 10 DU smaller than type 2 miniholes. It can be concluded that care must be taken when trying to deduce a dynamical explanation of minihole events near the polar terminator and the role of PSC must be accounted for in type 1 minihole formation.

Sabutis, Joseph L.↗

What We Don't Understand About Ion Acceleration Flares

There are now strong associations between the (3)He-rich, Fe-rich ions in "impulsive" solar energetic particle (SEP) events and the similar abundances derived from gamma-ray lines from flares. Compact flares, where wave energy can predominate, are ideal sites for the study of wave-particle physics. Yet there are nagging questions about the magnetic geometry, the relation between ions that escape and those that interact, and the relative roles of cascading Alfven waves and the EMIC waves required to enhance He-3. There are also questions about the relative timing of ion and electron acceleration and of heating; these relate to the variation of ionization states before and during acceleration and during transport out of the corona. We can construct a model that addresses many of these issues, but problems do remain. Our greatest lack is realistic theoretical simulations of element abundances, spectra, and their variations. By contrast, we now have a much better idea of the acceleration at CME-driven shock waves in the rare but large "gradual" SEP events, largely because of their slow temporal evolution and great spatial extent.

Reames, Donald V.↗

Observations of Earthward and tailward propagating flux rope plasmoids: Expanding the plasmoid model of geomagnetic substorms

A survey of Interplanetary Monitoring Platform (IMP 8) magnetometer data for plasmoid signatures during magnetospheric intervals from 1981 through 1983 found 16 plasmoids and 37 traveling compression regions as well as two earthward propagating flux ropes and 19 south-north bipolar lobe signatures. The properties of these relatively near-Earth plasmoids, traveling compression regions, and earthward propagating flux ropes and a qualitative model for their formation are presented. The plasmoids have estimated sizes, durations, magnetic field signatures, downtail velocities, and substorm associations very similar to those of the plasmoids identified in International Sun-Earth Explorer (ISEE) 3 deep-tail observations. The occurrence frequency of these near-Earth plasma sheet plasmoids is significantly smaller than that of plasmoids found in the mid- and deep tail with ISEE 3. The earthward propagating flux ropes are characterized by a south-north bipolar turning in the Geocentric Solar Magnetospheric (GSM) B(sub z) component, are localized near the noon-midnight meridional plane, and are strongly correlated with interplanetary magnetic field B(sub z) north and small isolated high latitude geomagnetic substorms. These events are also apparently very rare and/or spatially localized. We propose that these structures are 'proto-plasmoids,' i.e., plasmoids for which near-Earth magnetic reconnection stopped before all the closed plasma sheet field lines were reconnected. The proto-plasmoids are then 'trapped' inside closed magnetic field lines and propagate earthward owing to the effect of the distant X-line's earthward plasma flow. We suggest that the two different 'types' of plasmoids are due to the different energy states of the magnetosphere during periods of southward and northward interplanetary magnetic field.

Moldwin, Mark B.↗

X-Ray Emission from an Asymmetric Blast Wave and a Massive White Dwarf in the Gamma Ray Emitting Nova V407 CYG

Classical nova events in symbiotic stars, although rare, offer a unique opportunity to probe the interaction between ejecta and a dense environment in stellar explosions. In this work, we use X-ray data obtained with Swift and Suzaku during the recent classical nova outburst in V407 Cyg to explore such an interaction. We find evidence of both equilibrium and non-equilibrium ionization plasmas at the time of peak X-ray brightness, indicating a strong asymmetry in the density of the emitting region. Comparing a simple model to the data, we find that the X-ray evolution is broadly consistent with nova ejecta driving a forward shock into the dense wind of the Mira companion. We detect a highly absorbed soft X-ray component in the spectrum during the first 50 days of the outburst that is consistent with supersoft emission from the nuclear burning white dwarf. The high temperature and short turn off time of this emission component, in addition to the observed breaks in the optical and UV lightcurves, indicate that the white dwarf in the binary is extremely massive. Finally, we explore the connections between the X-ray and GeV-ray evolution, and propose that the gamma ray turn-off is due to the stalling of the forward shock as the ejecta reach the red giant surface.

Nelson, Thomas↗

Reply to Comment by Laprise on 'the Added Value to Global Model Projections of Climate Change by Dynamical Downscaling: a Case Study over the Continental U.S. Using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF Models'

In his comment, Laprise raises several points that we agree merit consideration. His primary critique is that our study [Racherla et al., 2012] tested the ability of the WRF regional climate model to reproduce historical temperature and precipitation change relative to the driving global climate model (GCM) using only a single simulation rather than an ensemble. He asserts that the observed changes are smaller than the internal variability in the climate system (i.e., not statistically significant) and that thus a single simulation should not necessarily be able to capture the observations. Laprise points out that the statistical signal is reduced for a multi-decadal trend such as the one we analyzed in comparison with mean climatology and cites two studies showing that for particular climate parameters it can take any years for a signal to be discerned over internal variability. He states that The results of theexperiment as designed were strongly influenced by the presence of internal variability and sampling errors,which masked the rather small climate changes that may have occurred as a consequence of changes inforcing during the period considered. While Laprise discusses statistics in general terms at some length, for the actual climate trends examined in our study, he offers no evidence that the forced signal was smallcompared with internal variability. The two studies he cites [de Ela et al., 2013; Maraun, 2013] do not provide convincing evidence as they concern climate variables averaged over different times and areas. One in fact examines extreme precipitation events, which by definition are rare and thus have a lower significance level. We accept the general point that it is important to consider internal variability, and as noted in our paper we agree that an ensemble of simulations is in principle an optimal, though computationally expensive, approach. While we did not present the statistical significance of the observations in our original paper, we have now evaluated those for the regional temperature trends used in our study to evaluate the added value of WRF and thus can analyze data as to the magnitude of the trends with respect to internal variability.

climate↗

Leveraging Human Performance Data to Change the Narrative that People are the Safety Problem

The study of errors and failure has a long and productive history in the behavioral sciences. By studying how systems fail, we rule out various mechanisms for how those systems might work, thereby refining our theories of how they actually work. Human performance, however, includes more than errors; human performance comprises both failures and successes. A systematic bias to collect and analyze data only on error affects the decisions we make as a community by promoting the narrative that “people are the safety problem.” This narrative manifests in both obvious and subtle ways in the design of systems intended for human use. When the only safety data that are available are about human failure, then “data-driven” designs can only consider that humans fail. Changing this narrative will depend on new data and new ways to examine data – specifically, data on the processes by which human create and contribute to safety. An alternate narrative is that people represent a primary source of safety, through their capability to anticipate, monitor for, respond to, and learn from expected and unexpected change. This presentation will describe research efforts to expand the range of safety-relevant events to include not just rare safety failures but frequent safety successes. These efforts include use of data from both operations and simulations to develop methods and metrics for learning from structured observation, self-report, and system data.

Jon Holbrook↗

Human Performance Contributions to Safety in Commercial Aviation

Every day in aviation, pilots, air traffic controllers, and other front-line personnel perform countless correct judgments and actions in a variety of operational environments. These judgments and actions are often the difference between an accident and a non-event. Ironically, data on these behaviors are rarely collected or analyzed. Data-driven decisions about safety management and design of safety-critical systems are limited by the available data, which influence how decision makers characterize problems and identify solutions. Large volumes of data are collected on the failures and errors that result in infrequent incidents and accidents, but in the absence of data on behaviors that result in routine successful outcomes, safety management and system design decisions are based on a small sample of nonrepresentative safety data. This assessment aimed to find and document “safety successes” made possible by human operators. With many Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) Programs and Projects focusing on increased automation and autonomy and decreased human involvement, failure to fully consider the human contributions to successful system performance in civil aviation represents a significant risk — a risk that has not been recognized to date. Without understanding how humans contribute to safety, any estimate of predicted safety of autonomous capabilities is incomplete and inherently suspect. Furthermore, understanding the ways in which humans contribute to safety can promote strategic interactions among safety technologies, functions, procedures and the people using them. Without this understanding, the full benefits of an integrated, optimized human/technology or autonomous system will not be realized. Historically, safety has been consistently defined in terms of the occurrence of accidents or recognized risks (i.e., in terms of things that go wrong). These adverse outcomes are explained by identifying their causes, and safety is restored by eliminating or mitigating these causes. An alternative to this approach is to focus on what goes right and identify how to replicate that process. Focusing on the rare cases of failures attributed to “human error” provides little information about why human performance routinely prevents adverse events. Hollnagel has proposed that things go right because people continuously adjust their work to match their operating conditions. These adjustments become increasingly important as systems continue to grow in complexity. Thus, the definition of safety should reflect not only “avoiding things that go wrong” but “ensuring that things go right.” The basis for safety management requires developing an understanding of everyday activities. However, few mechanisms to monitor everyday work exist in the aviation domain, which limits opportunities to learn how designs function in reality. This concept of safety thinking and safety management is reflected in the emerging field of resilience engineering. According to Hollnagel, a system is resilient if it can sustain required operations under expected and unexpected conditions by adjusting its functioning prior to, during, or following changes, disturbances, and opportunities. To explore “positive” behaviors that contribute to resilient performance in commercial aviation, the assessment team examined a range of existing sources of data about pilot and air traffic control (ATC) tower controller performance, including subjective interviews with domain experts and objective aircraft flight data records. These data were used to identify strategies that support resilient performance, methods for exploring and refining those strategies in existing data, and proposed methods for capturing and analyzing new data.

Null, Cynthia H.↗

Chondrule-like particles provide evidence of early Archean meteorite impacts, South Africa and western Australia

The evolution of the Earth and the Earth crust was studied. Two layers, that contain abundant unusual spherical particles which closely resemble chondroules were identified. Chondrules occur on small quantities in lunar soil, however, they are rare in terrestrial settings. Some chondrules in meteorites were formed on the surfaces of planet sized bodies during impact events. Similar chondrule like objects are extremely rare in the younger geologic record and these abundances are unknown in ancient deposits, except in meteorites. It is suggested that a part of the Earth's terminal bombardment history, and conditions favoring chondrule formation existed on the early Earth.

Lowe, D. R.↗

Can Asian Dust Trigger Phytoplankton Blooms in the Oligotrophic Northern South China Sea?

Satellite data estimate a high dust deposition flux (approximately 18 g m(exp-2 a(exp-1) into the northern South China Sea (SCS). However, observational evidence concerning any biological response to dust fertilization is sparse. In this study, we combined long-term aerosol and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) measurements from satellite sensors (MODIS and SeaWiFS) with a 16-year record of dust events from surface PM10 observations to investigate dust transport, flux, and the changes in Chl-a concentration over the northern SCS. Our result revealed that readily identifiable strong dust events over this region, although relatively rare (6 cases since 1994) and accounting for only a small proportion of the total dust deposition (approximately 0.28 g m(exp-2 a(exp-1), do occur and could significantly enhance phytoplankton blooms. Following such events, the Chl-a concentration increased up to 4-fold, and generally doubled the springtime background value (0.15 mg m(exp-3). We suggest these heavy dust events contain readily bioavailable iron and enhance the phytoplankton growth in the oligotrophic northern SCS.

northern South China sea↗