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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1999

Reference H Cycle 3 Stability, Control, and Flying Qualities Batch Assessments

This work is an update of the assessment completed in February of 1996, when a preliminary assessment report was issued for the Cycle 2B simulation model. The primary purpose of the final assessment was to re-evaluate each assessment against the flight control system (FCS) requirements document using the updated model. Only a limited number of final assessments were completed due to the close proximity of the release of the Langley model and the assessment deliverable date. The assessment used the nonlinear Cycle 3 simulation model because it combines nonlinear aeroelastic (quasi-static) aerodynamic with hinge moment and rate limited control surface deflections. Both Configuration Aerodynamics (Task 32) and Flight Controls (Task 36) were funded in 1996 to conduct the final stability and control assessments of the unaugmented Reference H configuration in FY96. Because the two tasks had similar output requirements, the work was divided such that Flight Controls would be responsible for the implementation and checkout of the simulation model and Configuration Aerodynamics for writing Madab "script' files, conducting the batch assessments and writing the assessment report. Additionally, Flight Controls was to investigate control surface allocations schemes different from the baseline Reference H in an effort to fulfill flying qualities criteria.

Henderson, Dennis K.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Section on Observed Impacts on El Nino

Agricultural applications of El Nino forecasts are already underway in some countries and need to be evaluated or re-evaluated. For example, in Peru, El Nino forecasts have been incorporated into national planning for the agricultural sector, and areas planted with rice and cotton (cotton being the more drought-tolerant crop) are adjusted accordingly. How well are this and other such programs working? Such evaluations will contribute to the governmental and intergovernmental institutions, including the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research and the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Agency that are fostering programs to aid the effective use of forecasts. As El Nino climate forecasting grows out of the research mode into operational mode, the research focus shifts to include the design of appropriate modes of utilization. Awareness of and sensitivity to the costs of prediction errors also grow. For example, one major forecasting model failed to predict the very large El Nino event of 1997, when Pacific sea-surface temperatures were the highest on record. Although simple correlations between El Nino events and crop yields may be suggestive, more sophisticated work is needed to understand the subtleties of the interplay among the global climate system, regional climate patterns, and local agricultural systems. Honesty about the limitations of an forecast is essential, especially when human livelihoods are at stake. An end-to-end analysis links tools and expertise from the full sequence of ENSO cause-and-effect processes. Representatives from many disciplines are needed to achieve insights, e.g, oceanographers and atmospheric scientists who predict El Nino events, climatologists who drive global climate models with sea-surface temperature predictions, agronomists who translate regional climate connections in to crop yield forecasts, and economists who analyze market adjustments to the vagaries of climate and determine the value of climate forecasts. Methods include historical studies to understand past patterns and to test hindcasts of the prediction tools, crop modeling, spatial analysis and remote sensing. This research involves expanding, deepening, and applying the understanding of physical climate to the fields of agronomy and social science; and the reciprocal understanding of crop growth and farm economics to climatology. Delivery of a regional climate forecast with no information about how the climate forecast was derived limits its effectiveness. Explanation of a region's major climate driving forces helps to place a seasonal forecast in context. Then, a useful approach is to show historical responses to previous El Nino events, and projections, with uncertainty intervals, of crop response from dynamic process crop growth models. Regional ID forecasts should be updated with real-time weather conditions. Since every El Nino event is different, it is important to track, report and advise on each new event as it unfolds. The stability of human enterprises depends on understanding both the potentialities and the limits of predictability. Farmers rely on past experience to anticipate and respond to fluctuations in the biophysical systems on which their livelihoods depend. Now scientists are improving their ability to predict some major elements of climate variability. The improvements in the reliability of El Nino forecasts are encouraging, but seasonal forecasts for agriculture are not, and will probably never be completely infallible, due to the chaotic nature of the climate system. Uncertainties proliferate as we extend beyond Pacific sea-surface temperatures to climate teleconnections and agricultural outcomes. The goal of this research is to shed as a clear light as possible on these inherent uncertainties and thus to contribute to the development of appropriate responses to El Nino and other seasonal forecasts for a range of stakeholders, which, ultimately, includes food consumers everywhere.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗
NASA NTRS1999

Elevation Change of the Southern Greenland Ice Sheet from Satellite Radar Altimeter Data

Long-term changes in the thickness of the polar ice sheets are important indicators of climate change. Understanding the contributions to the global water mass balance from the accumulation or ablation of grounded ice in Greenland and Antarctica is considered crucial for determining the source of the about 2 mm/yr sea-level rise in the last century. Though the Antarctic ice sheet is much larger than its northern counterpart, the Greenland ice sheet is more likely to undergo dramatic changes in response to a warming trend. This can be attributed to the warmer Greenland climate, as well as a potential for amplification of a global warming trend in the polar regions of the Northern Hemisphere. In collaboration with Drs. Curt Davis and Craig Kluever of the University of Missouri, we are using data from satellite radar altimeters to measure changes in the elevation of the Southern Greenland ice sheet from 1978 to the present. Difficulties with systematic altimeter measurement errors, particularly in intersatellite comparisons, beset earlier studies of the Greenland ice sheet thickness. We use altimeter data collected contemporaneously over the global ocean to establish a reference for correcting ice-sheet data. In addition, the waveform data from the ice-sheet radar returns are reprocessed to better determine the range from the satellite to the ice surface. At JPL, we are focusing our efforts principally on the reduction of orbit errors and range biases in the measurement systems on the various altimeter missions. Our approach emphasizes global characterization and reduction of the long-period orbit errors and range biases using altimeter data from NASA's Ocean Pathfinder program. Along-track sea-height residuals are sequentially filtered and backwards smoothed, and the radial orbit errors are modeled as sinusoids with a wavelength equal to one revolution of the satellite. The amplitudes of the sinusoids are treated as exponentially-correlated noise processes with a time-constant of six days. Measurement errors (e.g., altimeter range bias) are simultaneously recovered as constant parameters. The corrections derived from the global ocean analysis are then applied over the Greenland ice sheet. The orbit error and measurement bias corrections for different missions are developed in a single framework to enable robust linkage of ice-sheet measurements from 1978 to the present. In 1998, we completed our re-evaluation of the 1978 Seasat and 1985-1989 Geosat Exact Repeat Mission data. The estimates of ice thickness over Southern Greenland (south of 72N and above 2000 m) from 1978 to 1988 show large regional variations (+/-18 cm/yr), but yield an overall rate of +1.5 +/- 0.5 cm/yr (one standard error). Accounting for systematic errors, the estimate may not be significantly different from the null growth rate. The average elevation change from 1978 to 1988 is too small to assess whether the Greenland ice sheet is undergoing a long-term change.

Haines, Bruce J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Measurement and Modeling of Steep Ocean Wave Slopes

Our study emphasizes the importance of identifying and quantifying the distribution variance, skewness and kurtosis from optical and microwave scattering observations. Recent field measurements of the sea slope distribution for intermediate-to-long scale gravity waves will be presented. These data were collected using an airborne laser range system designed to estimate the surface slope vector at horizontal scales of 1-2 m. The observed slope distribution tail indicates that the occurrence of steep waves substantially exceeds a Gaussian prediction. This measured peakedness is present over the wide range of sea state and wind speed conditions encountered. Data are further evaluated within the context of Cox and Munk's well-known sea slope investigations. Based on a re-evaluation of the Cox and Munk's reported parameters, we find a consistent picture develops wherein data are shown to consistently indicate non-Gaussian statistics. One fundamental application of such a non-Gaussian slope observation is its place in modifying predicted wave breaking probability to help to better quantify gas transfer processes at the sea surface.

Chapron, B.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Search For Effects of an Electrostatic Potential on Clocks in the Frame of Reference of a Charged Particle

The Program Planning meeting was held on Jan 27-28 at the Washington University, Dept. of Physics. Experiment strategies and details were discussed and milestones mapped. Dr. Ringermacher, the program technical leader and Co-Principal Investigator, presented a Physics Department seminar on the theory and experiment in progress. Following the meeting Professor Conradi (CO-PI) and his students designed the NMR probe and electronics required for the experiment and submitted the drawings to the shop for fabrication. Dr. Cassenti, at UTRC, initiated analytic and computer analysis of the experimental conditions in order to anticipate possible classical effects. Dr. Ringermacher, at KRONOTRAN, re-evaluated the experiment interpretation from the theory and continued working to secure its underpinnings.

Ringermacher, Harry I.↗
NASA NTRS2001

SNC Meteorites, Organic Matter and a New Look at Viking

Recently, evidence has begun to grow supporting the possibility that the Viking GC-MS would not have detected certain carboxylate salts that could have been present as metastable oxidation products of high molecular weight organic species. Additionally, despite the instrument's high sensitivity, the possibility had remained that very low levels of organic matter, below the instrument's detection limit, could have been present. In fact, a recent study indicates that the degradation products of several million microorganisms per gram of soil on Mars would not have been detected by the Viking GC-MS. Since the strength of the GC-MS findings was considered enough to dismiss the biology packet, particularly the LR results, any subsequent evidence suggesting that organic molecules may in fact be present on the Martian surface necessitates a re-evaluation of the Viking LR data. In addition to an advanced mass spectrometer to look for isotopic signatures of biogenic processes, future lander missions will include the ability to detect methane produced by methanogenic bacteria, as well as techniques based on biotechnology. Meanwhile, the identification of Mars samples already present on Earth in the form of the SNC meteorites has provided us with the ability to study samples of the Martian upper crust a decade or more in advance of any planned sample return missions. While contamination issues are of serious concern, the presence of indigenous organic matter in the form of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons has been detected in the Martian meteorites ALH84001 and Nakhla, while there is circumstantial evidence for carbonaceous material in Chassigny. The radiochronological ages of these meteorites are 4.5 Ga, 1.3 Ga, and 165 Ma respectively representing a span of time in Earth history from the earliest single-celled organisms to the present day. Given this perspective on organic material, a biological interpretation to the Viking LR results can no longer be ruled out. In the LR experiment, a solution containing C-14 labeled organic compounds was injected into soil samples. The detection of radioactivity in the overhead space would indicate that one or more of the substrates had been chemically converted into a carbon-containing gas. To serve as a control, some samples were heated enough to destroy most known terrestrial microbes so that an indication for life would be a positive response from unheated samples and a negative response from heated samples. On Mars, the LR results had met minimum criteria for a biological interpretation but due to the GC-MS results, the LR responses were later attributed to putative soil inorganic oxidants. Since the time of Viking, studies have been carried out with the objective of determining an oxidant or combination of oxidants that might exist on Mars and have produced the observed kinetics of the LR response. To date, no such agent has been found that produces all aspects of the LR results on Mars. While the above considerations in no way imply the existence of life forms at the two Viking landing sites, inorganic and biological explanations for the Viking LR data should now be considered equally plausible until more complete studies of the Martian surface are carried out. Therefore, in light of the SNC meteorites data and their implications for the possibility of organic matter near or on the Martian surface the Viking biology experiments should thus be seen, not as failures for their inability to provide unambiguous evidence for or against Martian life, but as a foundation for the development of future life-detection instruments. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Warmflash, David M.↗
NASA NTRS2003

A New Estimate of the Extragalactic Gamma-ray Background from EGRET Data

We use the GALPROP model for cosmic-ray propagation to obtain our best prediction of the Galactic component of gamma rays, and show that away from the Galactic plane it gives an accurate prediction of the observed Energetic Gamma Ray Experiment Telescope (EGRET) intensities. On this basis we re-evaluate the isotropic extragalactic gamma-ray background. We find that for some energies previous work underestimated the Galactic contribution and hence overestimated the background. Our new background spectrum shows a positive curvature similar to that expected for models of the extragalactic emission based on the blazar population.

Moskalenko, I. V.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Abiotic Earth - Establishing a Baseline for Earliest Life, Data from the Archean of Western Australia

Stromatolitic structures preserved at two stratigraphic levels within the 3.47-3.43 Ga Warrawoona Group of Western Australia have been interpreted as some of "the least controversial evidence of early life on earth" and "the oldest firmly established biogenic deposits now known from the geologic record". The structures were said to have formed in a shallow sub-tidal to intertidal setting as part of an evaporite succession. In an extensive field program we have re-evaluated exposures of the Strelley Pool Chert from which stromatolites have been described and carried out detailed mapping and sampling of the Strelley Pool West site 13.7 km west of the type locality. Data from our ongoing program cast considerable doubt on the biogenic origins of the stromatolitic structures and on the nature of their depositional setting.

Lindsay, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS2004

What is (and Isn't) Wrong with Both the Tension and Shear Failure Models for the Formation of Lineae on Europa

An unresolved problem in the interpretation of lineae on Europa is whether they formed as tension- or shear-fractures. Voyager image analyses led to hypotheses that Europan lineaments are tension cracks induced by tidal deformation of the ice crust. This interpretation continued with Galileo image analyses, with lineae being classified as crust- penetrating tension cracks. Tension fracturing has also been an implicit assumption of nonsynchronous rotation (NSR) studies. However, recent hypotheses invoke shear failure to explain lineae development. If a shear failure mechanism is correct, it will be necessary to re-evaluate any models for the evolution of Europa's crust that are based on tensile failure models, such as NSR estimates. For this reason, it is imperative that the mechanism by which fractures are initiated on Europa be unambiguously unraveled. A logical starting point is an evaluation of the pros and cons of each failure model, highlighting the lines of evidence that are needed to fully justify either model.

Kattenhorn, S. A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

A New Determination of the Extragalactic Diffuse X-Ray Background from EGRET Data

We use the GALPROP model for cosmic-ray propagation to obtain a new estimate of the Galactic component of gamma rays, and show that away from the Galactic plane it gives an accurate prediction of the observed EGRET intensities in the energy range 30 MeV - 50 GeV. On this basis we re-evaluate the extragalactic gamma-ray background. We find that for some energies previous work underestimated the Galactic contribution at high latitudes and hence overestimated the background. Our new background spectrum shows a positive curvature similar to that expected for models of the extragalactic emission based on the blazar population.

Strong, Andrew W.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Extracellular signaling through the microenvironment: a hypothesis relating carcinogenesis, bystander effects, and genomic instability

Cell growth, differentiation and death are directed in large part by extracellular signaling through the interactions of cells with other cells and with the extracellular matrix; these interactions are in turn modulated by cytokines and growth factors, i.e. the microenvironment. Here we discuss the idea that extracellular signaling integrates multicellular damage responses that are important deterrents to the development of cancer through mechanisms that eliminate abnormal cells and inhibit neoplastic behavior. As an example, we discuss the action of transforming growth factor beta (TGFB1) as an extracellular sensor of damage. We propose that radiation-induced bystander effects and genomic instability are, respectively, positive and negative manifestations of this homeostatic process. Bystander effects exhibited predominantly after a low-dose or a nonhomogeneous radiation exposure are extracellular signaling pathways that modulate cellular repair and death programs. Persistent disruption of extracellular signaling after exposure to relatively high doses of ionizing radiation may lead to the accumulation of aberrant cells that are genomically unstable. Understanding radiation effects in terms of coordinated multicellular responses that affect decisions regarding the fate of a cell may necessitate re-evaluation of radiation dose and risk concepts and provide avenues for intervention.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗
NASA NTRS2000

Accretion of Moon and Earth and the emergence of life

The discrepancy between the impact records on the Earth and Moon in the time period, 4.0-3.5 Ga calls for a re-evaluation of the cause and localization of the late lunar bombardment. As one possible explanation, we propose that the time coverage in the ancient rock record is sufficiently fragmentary, so that the effects of giant, sterilizing impacts throughout the inner solar system, caused by marauding asteroids, could have escaped detection in terrestrial and Martian records. Alternatively, the lunar impact record may reflect collisions of the receding Moon with a series of small, original satellites of the Earth and their debris in the time period about 4.0-3.5 Ga. The effects on Earth of such encounters could have been comparatively small. The location of these tellurian moonlets has been estimated to have been in the region around 40 Earth radii. Calculations presented here, indicate that this is the region that the Moon would traverse at 4.0-3.5 Ga, when the heavy and declining lunar bombardment took place. The ultimate time limit for the emergence of life on Earth is determined by the effects of planetary accretion--existing models offer a variety of scenarios, ranging from low average surface temperature at slow accretion of the mantle, to complete melting of the planet followed by protracted cooling. The choice of accretion model affects the habitability of the planet by dictating the early evolution of the atmosphere and hydrosphere. Further exploration of the sedimentary record on Earth and Mars, and of the chemical composition of impact-generated ejecta on the Moon, may determine the choice between the different interpretations of the late lunar bombardment and cast additional light on the time and conditions for the emergence of life.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗
NASA NTRS2000

Columella cells revisited: novel structures, novel properties, and a novel gravisensing model

A hundred years of research has not produced a clear understanding of the mechanism that transduces the energy associated with the sedimentation of starch-filled amyloplast statoliths in root cap columella cells into a growth response. Most models postulate that the statoliths interact with microfilaments (MF) to transmit signals to the plasma membrane (or ER), or that sedimentation onto these organelles produces the signals. However, no direct evidence for statolith-MF links has been reported, and no asymmetric structures of columella cells have been identified that might explain how a root turned by 90 degrees knows which side is up. To address these and other questions, we have (1) quantitatively examined the effects of microgravity on the size, number, and spatial distribution of statoliths; (2) re-evaluated the ultrastructure of columella cells in high-pressure frozen/freeze-substituted roots; and (3) followed the sedimentation dynamics of statolith movements in reoriented root tips. The findings have led to the formulation of a new model for the gravity-sensing apparatus of roots, which envisages the cytoplasm pervaded by an actin-based cytoskeletal network. This network is denser in the ER-devoid central region of the cell than in the ER-rich cell cortex and is coupled to receptors in the plasma membrane. Statolith sedimentation is postulated to disrupt the network and its links to receptors in some regions of the cell cortex, while allowing them to reform in other regions and thereby produce a directional signal.

NASA Discipline Cell Biology↗
NASA NTRS2005

Shock Melting of Permafrost on Mars: Water Ice Multiphase Equation of State for Numerical Modeling and Its Testing

The presence of water/ice/brine in upper layers of Martian crust affects many processes of impact cratering. Modeling of these effects promises better understanding of Martian cratering records. We present here the new ANEOS-based multiphase equation of state for water/ice constructed for usage in hydrocodes and first numerical experiments on permafrost shock melting. Preliminary results show that due to multiple shock compression of ice inclusions in rocks the entropy jump in shocked ice is smaller than in pure ice for the same shock pressure. Hence previous estimates of ice melting during impact cratering on Mars should be re-evaluated. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Ivanov, B. A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

The NASA Continuous Risk Management Process

As an intern this summer in the GRC Risk Management Office, I have become familiar with the NASA Continuous Risk Management Process. In this process, risk is considered in terms of the probability that an undesired event will occur and the impact of the event, should it occur (ref., NASA-NPG: 7120.5). Risk management belongs in every part of every project and should be ongoing from start to finish. Another key point is that a risk is not a problem until it has happened. With that in mind, there is a six step cycle for continuous risk management that prevents risks from becoming problems. The steps are: identify, analyze, plan, track, control, and communicate & document. Incorporated in the first step are several methods to identify risks such as brainstorming and using lessons learned. Once a risk is identified, a risk statement is made on a risk information sheet consisting of a single condition and one or more consequences. There can also be a context section where the risk is explained in more detail. Additionally there are three main goals of analyzing a risk, which are evaluate, classify, and prioritize. Here is where a value is given to the attributes of a risk &e., probability, impact, and timeframe) based on a multi-level classification system (e.g., low, medium, high). It is important to keep in mind that the definitions of these levels are probably different for each project. Furthermore the risks can be combined into groups. Then, the risks are prioritized to see what risk is necessary to mitigate first. After the risks are analyzed, a plan is made to mitigate as many risks as feasible. Each risk should be assigned to someone in the project with knowledge in the area of the risk. Then the possible approaches to choose from are: research, accept, watch, or mitigate. Next, all risks, mitigated or not, are tracked either individually or in groups. As the plan is executed, risks are re-evaluated, and the attribute values are adjusted as necessary. Metrics are established and monitored as tools for risk tracking. Also a trigger or threshold should be set on the metric data that indicates when an action is needed. Results of this tracking are usually evaluated and reported in a relevant format at weekly or monthly meetings. Choosing controls is the subsequent step, which involves the effects of the tracking. The three basic controls are: close, continue tracking, and re- plan. Finally communicate & document is the last step, but occurs throughout the process. It is vital that main risks, plans, changes, and progress are known by everyone in the project. A good way to keep everyone updated and inform other projects of common issues is by thoroughly documenting project risks. NASA sees value in risk management and believes that projects have greater probability or success by using the NASA Continuous Risk Management Process.

Pokorny, Frank M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

The X-ray halo of an extremely luminous LSB disk galaxy

We are continuing to refine our upper limit on emission from halo gas in Malin 2. The upper limit is, of course, below the detected flux, but is made more difficult to quantify by the disk and possible AGN sources. We are also exploring spectral and spatial-size constraints to help separate the sources of emission. On the theory side, more recent work on the X-ray halo luminosity from halo gas leftover from galaxy formation has lowered the prediction for disk galaxies (e.g. Toft et al. 2002, MNRAS, 335, 799). While our upper limit is well below the original prediction, refinements in model have moved the theoretical goalposts, so that the observation may be consistent with newer models. A recent theoretical development, which our observations of Malin 2 appear to support, is that a substantial amount of mass can be accreted onto galaxies without being heated at a virial shock. The previous standard theory was that gas accreting into a halo hits a virial shock and is heated to high temperatures, which could produce X-ray halos in massive galaxies. Recent models show that "smooth accretion" of matter bypasses the virial shocking (Murali e t al. 2002, ApJ, 571, 1; Birnboim & Dekel 2003, MNRAS, 345, 349). Additionally, new hydrodynamical simulations of galaxy mergers by UCSC graduate student T. J. Cox show that hot gas halos can be created by gas blown out from the merger, taking up orbital energy of the merging galaxies (Cox et al. 2004, ApJ, 607, L87). If mergers rather than virial shocking are the origin of hot gas halos, the existence of an X-ray halo should depend more on past merger activity than halo mass. Then it makes sense that elliptical galaxies and poor groups with ellipticals, which are probably formed in mergers, have X-ray gas halos; while a giant, quiescent LSB disk galaxy like Malin 2, which has never suffered a major merger, does not have an X-ray halo. While both the observational expectations and theoretical models have changed since we began this project, which has forced us to re-evaluate the goals, we are pressing forward to firm up the observations and put them in context of the current models for X-ray halos of massive galaxies.

Weiner, Benjamin J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Effects of an Early-Time Impact Generated Vapor Blast in the Martian Atmosphere: Formation of High-Latitude Pedestal Craters

Following impact, vapor expansion creates an intense airblast that interacts with the ambient atmosphere. The resulting hemi-spherical shock wave leaves a signature on the surface that is dependent on initial atmospheric and surface conditions. Here we propose that the formation of pedestal craters (craters surrounded by an erosion-resistant pedestal) may be a direct consequence of extreme winds and elevated temperatures generated by such an impact-induced atmospheric blast. Pedestal craters, first recognized in Mariner 9 data, are a unique feature on Mars and likely a signature of near-surface volatiles. They are found at high latitudes (small pedestals, Amazonian to Late Hesperian in age) and in thick equatorial mantling deposits (larger pedestals, early Hesperian to Noachian in age). Previously suggested mechanisms for pedestal crater formation (e.g., wind: ejecta curtain vortices or vapor blast; and ejecta dust: armoring) do not provide a complete picture. The clear evidence for near-surface volatiles at high latitudes requires a re-evaluation of these alternative models. The results presented here suggest that a combined atmospheric blast/thermal model provides a plausible formation hypothesis.

Wrobel, K. E.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Risk as a Resource: A New Paradigm

In the new NASA, risk management must be developed as a skill to a far greater degree than has existed in the past. Past approaches have produced great successes but at great cost and lengthy schedules. In the future, risk and its component contributors must be re-evaluated. There are three contexts of risk that will be addressed in this paper: risk as a resource, which expands and shifts traditional risk considerations; marginal cost of risk, which addresses the cumulative and time related effects of risk reduction; and an alternative definition or new meaning of success and how it relates to work.

risk management risk success mission risk↗