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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Circuit complexity and functionality: A statistical thermodynamics perspective

Circuit complexity, defined as the minimum circuit size required for implementing a particular Boolean computation, is a foundational concept in computer science. Determining circuit complexity is believed to be a hard computational problem. Recently, in the context of black holes, circuit complexity has been promoted to a physical property, wherein the growth of complexity is reflected in the time evolution of the Einstein-Rosen bridge (“wormhole”) connecting the two sides of an anti-de Sitter “eternal” black hole. Here, we are motivated by an independent set of considerations and explore links between complexity and thermodynamics for functionally equivalent circuits, making the physics-inspired approach relevant to real computational problems, for which functionality is the key element of interest. In particular, our thermodynamic framework provides an alternative perspective on the obfuscation of programs of arbitrary length—an important problem in cryptography—as thermalization through recursive mixing of neighboring sections of a circuit, which can be viewed as the mixing of two containers with “gases of gates.” This recursive process equilibrates the average complexity and leads to the saturation of the circuit entropy, while preserving functionality of the overall circuit. The thermodynamic arguments hinge on ergodicity in the space of circuits which we conjecture is limited to disconnected ergodic sectors due to fragmentation. The notion of fragmentation has important implications for the problem of circuit obfuscation as it implies that there are circuits of same size and functionality that cannot be connected via a polynomial number of local moves. Furthermore, we argue that fragmentation is unavoidable unless the complexity classes NP and coNP coincide, a statement that implies the collapse of the polynomial hierarchy of computational complexity theory to its first level.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2019

Development of control quality factor for HVAC control loop performance assessment I—Methodology (ASHRAE RP-1587)

This article is the second paper from the ASHRAE research project RP-1587, focusing on the methodology of obtaining a control quality factor (CQF). This article presents a development of two CQFs for assessing the heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) control loop performance. Both CQFs are able to detect whether the control loop is able to maintain the setpoint and identify the loop's ability to handle disturbances. In addition, the reversal behaviors are assessed as well. The first CQF (CQF-Harris) is proposed based on the normalized Harris index using the recursive least squares method. This recursive least squares method is selected because of its computational efficiency compared with the maximum likelihood estimation method. The second CQF (CQF-EWMA) is based on the exponentially weighted moving average of the error ratio. The assessment scale of excellent, good, fair, bad, and failed, which indicates the quality of the HVAC control loops, is established as well. The sensitivity analysis for both CQFs is also conducted, and it provides insights on choosing the appropriate parameters to compute such CQFs. Such parameters include the sampling frequency, the length of the moving window, and the variance of the unmeasured disturbance. The field evaluations and tests of the proposed CQFs for simulated control loops and real control loops can be found in the companion paper with the title 'Development of Control Quality Factor for HVAC Control Loop Performance Assessment - III: Field Testing and Results (ASHRAE RP-1587).'

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantum Simulation of the First-Quantized Pauli-Fierz Hamiltonian

We provide an explicit recursive divide-and-conquer approach for simulating quantum dynamics and derive a discrete first-quantized nonrelativistic QED Hamiltonian based on the many-particle Pauli-Fierz Hamiltonian. We apply this recursive divide-and-conquer algorithm to this Hamiltonian and compare it to a concrete simulation algorithm that uses qubitization. Our divide-and-conquer algorithm, using lowest-order Trotterization, scales for fixed grid spacing as O ~ ( Λ N 2 η 2 t 2 / ϵ ) for grid size N , η particles, simulation time t , field cutoff Λ , and error ϵ . Our qubitization algorithm scales as O ~ ( N ( η + N ) ( η + Λ 2 ) t log ( 1 / ϵ ) ) . This shows that even a naive partitioning and low-order splitting formula can yield, through our divide-and-conquer formalism, superior scaling to qubitization for large Λ . We compare the relative costs of these two algorithms on systems that are relevant for applications such as the spontaneous emission of photons and the photoionization of electrons. We observe that for different parameter regimes, one method can be favored over the other. Finally, we give new algorithmic and circuit-level techniques for gate optimization, including a new way of implementing a group of multicontrolled- X gates that can be used for better analysis of circuit cost. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Mukhopadhyay, Priyanka (ORCID:0000000164639100)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Real Time Effective Impedance Estimation for Power System State Estimation

Here, we introduce two tools-the Effective Impedance State Estimator (EISE), and the Real Time Effective Impedance Estimator (RTEIE). The EISE is novel in that it is an entirely data-driven state estimator, and does not require a network model. Thus, the EISE is well suited for applications in which an accurate network model is not available. Instead of using a network impedance model, the EISE uses an effective impedance network model that is learned online by the RTEIE. The RTEIE recursively estimates the effective impedance network model using phasor measurement unit (PMU) measurements. The mathematical reasoning for using an effective impedance model, rather than a full network impedance model, is given. The recursive estimation framework allows the RTEIE to take the entire history of phasor measurements into account to produce a model estimate, while still adjusting to changes in the network impedance due to external factors such as topology changes and temperature. The merits of the RTEIE and EISE are demonstrated by comparing the accuracy of the EISE with a conventional state estimator on a toy network.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2019

Defense strategies and expected capacity of high performance computing infrastructures

We consider high performance computing infrastructures consisting of multiple sites connected over a wide-area network. These sites house heterogeneous computing systems, network elements and local-area connections, and the wide-area network plays a critical, asymmetric role of providing the vital connectivity between them. We model this infrastructure as a recursive system of systems, wherein the basic systems at the finest levels are composed of discrete cyber and physical components. These components may be disabled by cyber and physical disruptions, and their reinforcements protect against them albeit at a cost. We utilize results from a game formulation based on (i) characterizing the disruptions between systems at each level of recursion using aggregate failure correlation functions, and within basic systems using the multiplier functions, and (ii) using utility functions expressed in terms of the number of basic system components attacked and reinforced. At Nash Equilibrium, we derive expressions for the expected capacity of the infrastructure given by the number of computing nodes that are operational and connected to the network.

Rao, Nageswara↗
DOE OSTI2024

PV Generation and Load Forecasting for Adjuntas PR Community Microgrids

Existing frameworks to forecast time-series photovoltaic (PV) output power and consumer load for microgrid operations and controls assume a near-continuous availability of real-time input features from the field assets such as PV inverters, energy meters, and weather station. These incoming data points are used to periodically retrain models and update forecast snapshots over a moving horizon window, be it one hour-ahead, one-day ahead, or one-week ahead. However, such frameworks are not resilient to disruptions in data availability caused by losses in communications between the field sensors and data loggers. Hence, there is a need for programs that assume no availability of real-time microgrid asset data and still make reliable forecasts that can be used for decision-making. Such programs would be apt to function in extreme weather events such as hurricanes and would use lightweight recursive time-series models to independently forecast solar irradiance and ambient temperature, then compute PV power from those forecasts, as well as independently forecast consumer load. The codebase performs forecasting for the scenario of when the microgrid does not have a reliable access to forecasts or real-time observations of solar irradiance (I) and ambient temperature (AT) and load (Load) to be able to adequately forecast, in real-time, the PV power production or a business' load. In this case, using historical values of PV power and load, a univariate forecasting of generation and consumption are respectively made. The use-case in particular has two sub-scenarios: one, a normal 7-day ahead forecast where the unavailability of real-time data is assumed due to infrastructure issues such as loss of communication or sensor maintenance or service downtimes. Whereas a hurricane-caused unavailability of real-time data requires a second model trained specifically on historical hurricane days to be able to capture the extreme day behavior of generation in particular, and load if applicable. A gradient boosted regression tree comprises an ensemble of additive models that map between the input of historical values (be it irradiance, temperature, or load) and their corresponding output forecasts of a given horizon such that the individual learner predictions are summed up over the total number of such learners in the ensemble to produce an aggregate forecast. A weighting mechanism is applied to the training data in each iteration, where actual and forecast values are compared to penalize incorrect forecasts by increasing the weight and reducing it to reward correct forecasts. The code's benefits are that it: (a) accounts for a contingency where communication loss renders newly measured real-time data unavailable for model tuning and snapshot updates; (b) presents blind forecasting that recursively determines the next time-step value in a horizon using the forecast of the same attribute from a prior step; and (c) employs lightweight models that, once trained, can reliably generalize for different horizons, which make them suitable for enhancing the resilience of field microgrids prone to extreme events that encounter disruptions to data availability.

Sundararajan, Aditya [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hybrid quantum-classical algorithms for approximate graph coloring

We show how to apply the recursive quantum approximate optimization algorithm (RQAOA) to MAX- k -CUT, the problem of finding an approximate k -vertex coloring of a graph. We compare this proposal to the best known classical and hybrid classical-quantum algorithms. First, we show that the standard (non-recursive) QAOA fails to solve this optimization problem for most regular bipartite graphs at any constant level p : the approximation ratio achieved by QAOA is hardly better than assigning colors to vertices at random. Second, we construct an efficient classical simulation algorithm which simulates level- 1 QAOA and level- 1 RQAOA for arbitrary graphs. In particular, these hybrid algorithms give rise to efficient classical algorithms, and no benefit arising from the use of quantum mechanics is to be expected. Nevertheless, they provide a suitable testbed for assessing the potential benefit of hybrid algorithm: We use the simulation algorithm to perform large-scale simulation of level- 1 QAOA and RQAOA with up to 300 qutrits applied to ensembles of randomly generated 3 -colorable constant-degree graphs. We find that level- 1 RQAOA is surprisingly competitive: for the ensembles considered, its approximation ratios are often higher than those achieved by the best known generic classical algorithm based on rounding an SDP relaxation. This suggests the intriguing possibility that higher-level RQAOA may be a potentially useful algorithm for NISQ devices.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of Random Forest Modeling Strategies for Multi-Step Wind Speed Forecasting

Although the random forest (RF) model is a powerful machine learning tool that has been utilized in many wind speed/power forecasting studies, there has been no consensus on optimal RF modeling strategies. This study investigates three basic questions which aim to assist in the discernment and quantification of the effects of individual model properties, namely: (1) using a standalone RF model versus using RF as a correction mechanism for the persistence approach, (2) utilizing a recursive versus direct multi-step forecasting strategy, and (3) training data availability on model forecasting accuracy from one to six hours ahead. These questions are investigated utilizing data from the FINO1 offshore platform and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) C1 site, and testing results are compared to the persistence method. At FINO1, due to the presence of multiple wind farms and high inter-annual variability, RF is more effective as an error-correction mechanism for the persistence approach. The direct forecasting strategy is seen to slightly outperform the recursive strategy, specifically for forecasts three or more steps ahead. Finally, increased data availability (up to ~8 equivalent years of hourly training data) appears to continually improve forecasting accuracy, although changing environmental flow patterns have the potential to negate such improvement. We hope that the findings of this study will assist future researchers and industry professionals to construct accurate, reliable RF models for wind speed forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Multi-Step Reservoir Inflow Forecasting: A Time-Variant Encoder–Decoder Approach

Accurate reservoir inflow forecasting is vital for effective water resource management. Reliable forecasts enable operators to optimize storage and release strategies to meet competing sectoral demands—such as water supply, irrigation, and hydropower scheduling—while also mitigating flood and drought risks. To address this need, in this study, we propose a novel time-variant encoder–decoder (ED) model designed specifically to improve multi-step reservoir inflow forecasting, enabling accurate predictions of reservoir inflows up to seven days ahead. Unlike conventional ED-LSTM and recursive ED-LSTM models, which use fixed encoder parameters or recursively propagate predictions, our model incorporates an adaptive encoder structure that dynamically adjusts to evolving conditions at each forecast horizon. Additionally, we introduce the Expected Baseline Integrated Gradients (EB-IGs) method for variable importance analysis, enhancing interpretability of inflow by incorporating multiple baselines to capture a broader range of hydrometeorological conditions. The proposed methods are demonstrated at several diverse reservoirs across the United States. Our results show that they outperform traditional methods, particularly at longer lead times, while also offering insights into the key drivers of inflow forecasting. These advancements contribute to enhanced reservoir management through improved forecasting accuracy and practical decision-making insights under complex hydroclimatic conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Realized ecological forecast through an interactive Ecological Platform for Assimilating Data (EcoPAD, v1.0) into models

Abstract. Predicting future changes in ecosystem services is not only highly desirable but is also becoming feasible as several forces (e.g., available big data, developed data assimilation (DA) techniques, and advanced cyber-infrastructure) are converging to transform ecological research into quantitative forecasting. To realize ecological forecasting, we have developed an Ecological Platform for Assimilating Data (EcoPAD, v1.0) into models. EcoPAD (v1.0) is a web-based software system that automates data transfer and processing from sensor networks to ecological forecasting through data management, model simulation, data assimilation, forecasting, and visualization. It facilitates interactive data–model integration from which the model is recursively improved through updated data while data are systematically refined under the guidance of model. EcoPAD (v1.0) relies on data from observations, process-oriented models, DA techniques, and the web-based workflow. We applied EcoPAD (v1.0) to the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental change (SPRUCE) experiment in northern Minnesota. The EcoPAD-SPRUCE realizes fully automated data transfer, feeds meteorological data to drive model simulations, assimilates both manually measured and automated sensor data into the Terrestrial ECOsystem (TECO) model, and recursively forecasts the responses of various biophysical and biogeochemical processes to five temperature and two CO 2 treatments in near-real time (weekly). Forecasting with EcoPAD-SPRUCE has revealed that mismatches in forecasting carbon pool dynamics are more related to model (e.g., model structure, parameter, and initial value) than forcing variables, opposite to forecasting flux variables. EcoPAD-SPRUCE quantified acclimations of methane production in response to warming treatments through shifted posterior distributions of the CH 4 :CO 2 ratio and the temperature sensitivity ( Q 10 ) of methane production towards lower values. Different case studies indicated that realistic forecasting of carbon dynamics relies on appropriate model structure, correct parameterization, and accurate external forcing. Moreover, EcoPAD-SPRUCE stimulated active feedbacks between experimenters and modelers to identify model components to be improved and additional measurements to be taken. It has become an interactive model–experiment (ModEx) system and opens a novel avenue for interactive dialogue between modelers and experimenters. Altogether, EcoPAD (v1.0) acts to integrate multiple sources of information and knowledge to best inform ecological forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Decomposition Algorithms for Scalable Quantum Annealing

The presented python code provides wrapper functions for two decomposition algorithms: One algorithm to decompose Maximum Clique problems and one to decompose Minimum Vertex Cover problems. The functions take as input a networkx graph object, and decompose either problem on the input graph recursively into subproblems such that the optimal solution can be constructed from the optimal solutions of both subproblems. The recursion ends as soon as the subproblems reach a pre-specified size limit by the user, and they can be solved using any method provided in advance by the user as external function. This includes exact solvers or an adiabatic quantum annealer.

Pelofske, Elijah↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting chatter using machine learning and acoustic signals from low-cost microphones

Machining chatter is a phenomenon resulting from self-oscillation between a machining tool and workpiece. This self-oscillation results in variation on the machined product that reduces the ability to meet desired specifications. Chatter is a widely studied topic as it directly relates to the quality of machined products. Here, this study details the application of a Random Forest (RF) classifier with Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) to machining audio collected by a single microphone during down-milling operations. This approach allows straightforward feature elimination that results in an easily understood set of analyzed dimensions. Stability is predicted solely based on the classification output of the RF classifier. Our approach proves highly predictive with consistent machining setup and a small sample set. We also review transferability between machining setups and present key findings. Our RF approach demonstrates the ability to analyze and classify chatter through a low-cost approach with limited training data required. The motivation for using a single microphone is to enable detection on machines without other sensors, such as accelerometers, present in the machining setup. The value of the in-process sensor and chatter classifier is highlighted because the machining setup included asymmetric dynamics that reduced the accuracy of the traditional analytical stability solution. We see a natural progression to deploying this audio-only methodology with real-time processing and classification using either a laptop or smartphone. This progression will allow visual indicators during the machining process that can alert machinists of progression into unstable machining processes.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Recurrent features of amplitudes in planar $\mathcal{N}$ = 4 super Yang-Mills theory

The planar three-gluon form factor for the chiral stress tensor operator in planar maximally supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory is an analog of the Higgs-to-three-gluon scattering amplitude in QCD. The amplitude (symbol) bootstrap program has provided a wealth of high-loop perturbative data about this form factor, with results up to eight loops available. The symbol of the form factor at L loops is given by words of length 2L in six letters with associated integer coefficients. In this paper, we analyze this data, describing patterns of zero coefficients and relations between coefficients. We find many sequences of words whose coefficients are given by closed-form expressions which we expect to be valid at any loop order. Moreover, motivated by our previous machine-learning analysis, we identify simple recursion relations that relate the coefficient of a word to the coefficients of particular lower-loop words. These results open an exciting door for understanding scattering amplitudes at all loop orders.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2018

The Random Change of Coordination Number in the Blume-Capel Model

The spin-1 Blume-Capel model is investigated under the random change of coordination numbers on the Bethe lattice (BL). Various coordination numbers are taken as couples and varied randomly on the shells of the BL. The randomization is realized in the standard-random approach and the formulation is obtained in terms of exact recursion relations. The phase diagrams are obtained by calculating the places of the second- and first-order phase transitions and tricritical points.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

An uncertainty-focused database approach to extract spatiotemporal trends from qualitative and discontinuous lake-status histories

Changes in lake status are often interpreted as palaeoclimate indicators due to their dependence on precipitation and evaporation. The Global Lake Status Database (GLSDB) has since long provided a standardised synopsis of qualitative lake status over the last 30,000 14C years. Potential sources of uncertainty however are not recorded in the GLSDB. Here we present an updated and improved relational-database framework that incorporates uncertainty in both chronology and the interpretation of palaeoenvironmental data. The database uses peer-reviewed palaeolimnological studies to produce a consensus on qualitative lake-status histories, whose chronologies are revised and standardized through the recalibration of radiocarbon dates and the application of Bayesian age-depth modelling for stratigraphic archives. Quantitative information on absolute water-level elevation is preserved if available from geomorphological sources. We also propose a new probabilistic analytical framework that accounts for these uncertainties to reconstruct synoptic, integrated environmental signals. The process is based on a Monte Carlo algorithm that iteratively samples individual lake-status histories within the limits of their uncertainties to produce many possible scenarios. We then use Recursively-Subtracted Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis to extract dominant patterns of lake-status variability from these scenarios. As a proof of concept, we apply this framework to 67 sites in eastern and southern Africa whose lake-status histories cover part of the late Pleistocene and/or Holocene. We show that, despite the sometimes large temporal and interpretation uncertainties, and the inclusion of highly discontinuous lake-status time series, identifying the major known millennial-scale climatic phases during the last 20,000 years is possible. Our framework was also able to identify an antiphased response between the lake basins in eastern and interior southern Africa to these changes. Here, we propose that our new database and methodology framework serves as a template for efficient lake-status data synthesis, encourages the incorporation of lake-status data in palaeoclimate syntheses, and expands the possibilities for the use of such data in the evaluation of climate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Online Parameter Estimation Methods for Adaptive Cruise Control Systems

Modeling Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) vehicles enables the understanding of the impact of these vehicles on traffic flow. In this work, two online methods are used to provide real time system identification of ACC enabled vehicles. The first technique is a recursive least squares (RLS) approach, while the second method solves a nonlinear joint state and parameter estimation problem via particle filtering (PF). We provide a parameter identifiability analysis for both methods to analytically show that the model parameters are not identifiable using equilibrium driving. The accuracy and computational runtime of the online methods are compared to a commonly used offline simulation-based optimization (i.e., batch optimization) approach. The methods are tested on synthetic data as well as on empirical data collected directly from a 2019 model year ACC vehicle using data from sensors that are part of the stock ACC system. The online methods are scalable and provide comparable accuracy to the batch method. RLS runs in real time and is two orders of magnitude faster than the batch method for modest sized (e.g., 15 min) datasets. The particle filter also runs in real- time, and is also suitable in streaming applications in which the datasets can grow arbitrarily large.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reduce Operations: Send Volume Balancing While Minimizing Latency

Communication hypergraph model was introduced in a two-phase setting for encapsulating multiple communication cost metrics (bandwidth and latency), which are proven to be important in parallelizing irregular applications. In the first phase, computational-task-to-processor assignment is performed with the objective of minimizing total volume while maintaining computational load balance. In the second phase, communication-task-to-processor assignment is performed with the objective of minimizing total number of messages while maintaining communication-volume balance. The reduce-communication hypergraph model suffers from failing to correctly encapsulate send-volume balancing. We propose a novel vertex weighting scheme that enables part weights to correctly encode send-volume loads of processors for send-volume balancing. The model also suffers from increasing the total communication volume during partitioning. To decrease this increase, we propose a method that utilizes the recursive bipartitioning framework and refines each bipartition by vertex swaps. For performance evaluation, we consider column-parallel SpMV, which is one of the most widely known applications in which the reduce-task assignment problem arises. Extensive experiments on 313 matrices show that, compared to the existing model, the proposed models achieve considerable improvements in all communication cost metrics. Furthermore, these improvements lead to an average decrease of 30% in parallel SpMV time on 512 processors for 70 matrices with high irregularity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Distributed Data-Driven Optimization for Voltage Regulation in Distribution Systems

Here, this paper proposes a distributed data-driven optimization framework for voltage regulation in distribution systems. The recursive kernel regression and alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) are selected to cover the system learning and distributed optimization tasks. The proposed distributed data-driven framework is capable of having a rapid response to system or load changes while considering the operation optimality. Besides, the distributed algorithm parallels the computation tasks and reduces the computational expense of a single agent. To validate the performance of the proposed method, a hypothetical 7-Bus system and the IEEE 123-Bus system are selected to show the effectiveness of the proposed data-driven framework. According to the numerical study results, the proposed method offers great flexibility for selecting customized kernel models for different regions and can effectively improve the system voltage profile in a distributed manner.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗