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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Power Electronics Materials and Bonded Interfaces - Reliability and Lifetime

The emergence of wide-bandgap (WBG) devices in power electronics packages has brought significant attention to the reliability and thermal performance of the bonded interfaces. These interfaces, such as die-attach and substrate-attach, need to withstand the severe stress induced on them by the high-temperature (> 200°C) operation of the WBG devices. Sintered silver and transient liquid phase alloys are key bonded interfaces that can enable the high-temperature operation of WBG devices, however it is essential to evaluate their reliability and study the possible failure mechanisms before they can be used in power electronics packages. Sintered silver is already being adopted in commercial packages as a die-attach, but large-area substrate-attach offers additional reliability challenges. In this project, we investigate the reliability of these interface materials under accelerated thermal cycling and correlate these results with finite element simulations to develop lifetime prediction models. The failure mechanisms of these bonded interfaces are also studied.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydrogen Component Leak Rate Quantification for System Risk and Reliability Assessment through QRA and PHM Frameworks: Preprint

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Hydrogen Safety Research and Development (HSR&D) program in collaboration with the University of Maryland's Systems Risk and Reliability Analysis Laboratory (SyRRA) are working to improve reliability and reduce risk in hydrogen systems. This approach strives to use quantitative data on component leaks and failures, together with Prognosis and Health Management (PHM), and Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) to identify at-risk components, reduce component failures and downtime, and predict when components require maintenance. Hydrogen component failures increase facility maintenance cost, facility downtime, and reduce public acceptance of hydrogen technologies, ultimately increasing facility size and cost because of potentially overly conservative requirements. Leaks are a predominant failure mode for hydrogen components. However, uncertainties in the amount of hydrogen emitted from leaking components and the frequency of those failure events limit the understanding of the risks that they present under real-world operational conditions. NREL has deployed a test fixture, the Leak Rate Quantification Apparatus (LRQA), to quantify the mass flow rate of leaking gases from medium and high-pressure components that have failed while in service. Quantitative hydrogen leak rate data from this system could ultimately be used to better inform risk assessment and Regulation Codes and Standards (RCS). Parallel activity explores the use of PHM and QRA techniques to assess and reduce risk, thereby improving safety and reliability of hydrogen systems. The results of QRAs could further provide a systematic and science-based foundation for the design and implementation of RCS, as in the latest versions of the NFPA 2 code for gaseous hydrogen stations. Alternatively, data-driven techniques of PHM could provide new damage diagnosis and health-state prognosis tools. This research will help end users, station owners and operators, and regulatory bodies move towards risk-informed preventative maintenance versus emergency corrective maintenance, reducing cost and improving reliability. Predictive modelling of failures could improve safety and affect RCS requirements such as setback distances at liquid refuelling sites. The combination of leak rate quantification research, PHM, and QRA can lead to better informed models enabling data-based decision to be made for hydrogen system safety improvements.

codes and standards↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electrical Substation Configuration Effect on Substation Reliability

It is crucial that the U.S. electrical grid be reliable, due to its critical role in the economy and our national defense/security. Many common tasks and industrial operations rely on proper electrical power distribution. In designing new bus systems or evaluating existing ones, the type of configuration employed affects the level of risk, reliability, maintenance, and cost involved. The present work utilizes Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) to perform a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA)-based sensitivity study on substation reliability in regard to different bus configurations. This study examines single bus, main and transfer, breaker and a half, double bus/double breaker, and ring bus configurations applied to busses with different numbers of lines. The case variances, methods, and rankings presented herein can help guide bus configurations for electrical grid design/analysis in the future.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electrical Substation Configuration Effect on Substation Reliability

The nation’s electrical grid must be reliable because of its critical role in the economy, defense, and security of the nation. Many common tasks and industrial operations rely on proper electrical power distribution. In the design of new bus systems or evaluation of existing bus systems, the type of bus configuration affects the risk, reliability, maintenance, and cost of the system. This work utilizes Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) to perform a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) based sensitivity study on the reliability of substations with differing bus configurations. This study examines single bus, main and transfer, breaker and a half, double bus/double breaker, and ring bus configurations applied to busses of varying number of lines. The case variances, methods, and rankings presented can provide a guide for bus configuration for future electrical grid design and analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic Model Agnostic Reliability Evaluation of Machine-Learning Models Integrated in Instrumentation & Control Systems

In recent years, the field of machine learning (ML), specifically neural networks, has grown significantly and has spurred research in its applicability to digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C). While ML models have shown promise in operational contexts, the trustworthiness of using such algorithms has not been adequately assessed. Failures of ML integrated systems are not well understood, and the lack of comprehensive risk modeling can degrade the trustworthiness in these systems. In recent reports by the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST) [1] and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) [2], they indicate that trustworthiness in ML is a critical barrier and will play a vital role in the safe, accountable, and secure operation of intelligent systems. Thus, in this work, we demonstrate a dynamic model-agnostic method to quantify the relative reliability of AI/ML predictions by incorporating out-of-distribution (OOD) detection on the training dataset. It is well documented that most ML algorithms excel at interpolation (or near-interpolation) tasks but experience significant performance degradation at extrapolation. The method, referenced as the Laplacian distributed decay for reliability (LADDR), determines the difference between the operational and training datasets which can used to the relative reliability of AI/ML predictions. LADDR is then demonstrated on a feedforward neural network based digital twin used for the prediction of safety significant factors during a loss-of-flow transient. LADDR is used to demonstrate how training data can be used as evidence to support the relative reliability of ML/AI predictions enhancing the overall trustworthiness of the system.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Explained: Reliability of the Current Power Grid

Maintaining reliability of the bulk power system, which supplies and transmits electricity, is a constant focus of electric grid planners, operators, and regulators. Based on the standards set by power system reliability entities, the U.S. grid has been and continues to be very reliable. Over the past decade the average U.S. customer has only experienced about 15 minutes of outages per year due to supply limitations, with most of those outages occurring due to failures on the distribution system. However, there have been a few notable incidents in recent years tied to extreme weather events. The fact sheet provides and introduction to reliability of the bulk power system in the U.S.

power grid↗
DOE OSTI2025

ACCELERATED DEPLOYMENT OF NOVEL MATERIALS BASED ON RELIABILITY INTEGRITY MANAGEMENT USING CUMULATIVE DAMAGE MODELING

There is currently no widely agreed, detailed general method for licensing a novel plant incorporating novel materials (or materials being deployed in novel environments); in many such situations, there are no directly applicable engineering code cases for decision-makers (including regulators) to rely on. This paper discusses a framework for solving this problem that is based on the Reliability and Integrity Management (RIM) approach delineated in ASME BPVC Section XI Division 2. NRC Regulatory Guide 1.246, Rev. 0, endorses, with conditions, the subject portion of the 2019 ASME Code. The proposed framework is meant to support development of a licensing case by addressing certain remaining technical challenges. The framework discussed here is compatible with the Licensing Modernization Project, but applying it in a specific case will call for advances in the state of practice, if not the state of the art. The RIM approach calls for applicants to (a) allocate reliability targets to plant structures, systems, and components (SSCs), (b) show that they are able to relate the currently observed physical condition of each SSC in the program to its failure probability well enough to determine whether the target reliability allocations are being satisfied, allowing for uncertainty related to the novelty of the materials/designs/operating environments, and (c) be able to demonstrate that the proposed program of surveillances will reliably detect unacceptable degradation of an SSC before SSC failure occurs. A modeling approach potentially applicable to item (b), based on cumulative damage modeling rather than failure rates, is briefly illustrated.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the Reliability of Parameter Inferences in a Multiscale Model for Transport in Stream Corridors

Nonreacting tracer tests capture information about physical processes in transient storage zones including the hyporheic zone (HZ). However, reliably extracting this information from breakthrough curves (BTCs) and distinguishing the effects of in-channel dispersion and transient storage are well-known challenges. Using BTCs from a nonreacting tracer test monitored at multiple locations, we explore ways for reliable parameter estimations. The identifiability of parameters is greatly influenced by the choice of forward and inverse modeling frameworks in addition to the quality of the data. Our forward model is a recently proposed multiscale model that uses subgrid transport models written in the Lagrangian form to represent transport along a diverse set of HZ pathways with a shape-free distribution of travel times. Joint distributions of HZ and channel parameters are estimated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique. Numerical experiments show ambiguity between channel dispersion and HZ transport when the reach length is too short to allow significant solute-HZ interaction, the observation period is too brief to observe the tailing behavior, or the solute source is spread in time. In contrast, we obtained reliable parameter estimates by simultaneously fitting BTCs observed at different locations in the test reach using a single set of HZ parameters and section-specific channel areas and dispersion coefficients. Furthermore, this study demonstrates the estimation of travel time distributions, HZ exchange rates, and channel parameters in a new multiscale approach and offers guidance for extracting reliable parameter estimates from multiple BTCs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

What Technical Choices Matter to Characterize Heat Wave and Cold Snap Events in Support of Bulk Power Grid Reliability Studies?

Extreme weather events, such as Heat Waves (HW) and Cold Snaps (CS), pose significant risks to the power grid. The United States (U.S.) Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Order No. 896 mandates regional coordination standards that account for extreme thermal events. However, the lack of a universal definition for extreme thermal events may lead to inconsistent compliance efforts among neighboring entities, undermining the reliability of the transmission system. This study directly addresses this challenge by systematically evaluating how varying technical choices in defining HW and CS fundamentally impact the characterization and ranking of extreme events for power grid reliability studies. We used 12 event definitions and multiple temperature spatial aggregation approaches to construct historical (1980–2024) regional extreme thermal event libraries across North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) subregions in the conterminous U.S. We examined the sensitivity of event characteristics (e.g., duration, frequency, intensity, and spatial coverage) to different definitions. While some definitions produced similar libraries and top event rankings, definitions based on moving-window-averaged temperatures yielded markedly different characteristics. Spatial aggregation methods had minimal impact on heat wave or cold snap intensity, frequency and duration but significantly influenced spatial coverage. The top events identified across different aggregation methods were consistent, but their ranking order varied. These findings offer critical insights for characterizing and selecting extreme thermal events and for supporting local and cross-regional coordination as required by reliability standards.

Wan, Heng [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pool Boiling Reliability Tests and Degradation Mechanisms of Microporous Copper Inverse Opal (CuIOs) Structures

The rising power density in electronic systems requires thermal management solutions that are both high-performing and reliable. Porous materials such as Copper Inverse Opal (CuIOs) have unique structural features, including high permeability and high thermal conductivity, to enhance pool boiling performance. However, there is little understanding of the degradation mechanism of such porous materials under pool boiling conditions. In this study, samples of 10 ..mu..m thick CuIOs with 4.8 ..mu..m diameter, covering silicon substrate of area 11 mm x 11 mm, with various heated areas ranging from 2.5 mm x 2.5 mm to 10 mm x 10 mm, were tested in 100 degrees C deionized water at a constant heat flux of 110 Wcm -2 for 3-to-7 days. The combined effect of erosion and corrosion caused structural degradation of the CuIOs. The directly heated area had the most severe degradation while the edge of the heater and the unheated area showed progressively less degradation, maintaining some CuIOs structure even after the 7-day reliability test. Among all the tested samples with various heater sizes, the 2.5 mm x 2.5 mm heater sample - in which the heater size was designed to be comparable to the water bubble characteristic length - had the largest critical heat flux (CHF) up to 300 Wcm -2 with a superheat ~ 13 degrees C. Additionally, CuIOs with a smaller heated area performed better in terms of reliability. This study offers preliminary insights into CuIOs degradation mechanisms, contributing to the development of more robust thermal management solutions. We expect that electroless plating of CuIOs with gold (Au), nickel (Ni), and atomic layer deposition (ALD) aluminum oxide (Al 2 O 3 ) in combination with appropriate application-specific coolants will further improve the reliability and lifetime of the CuIOs.

boiling-induced degradation↗
DOE OSTI2021

Power Grid Reliability Estimation via Adaptive Importance Sampling

Electricity production currently generates approximately 25% of greenhouse gas emissions in the USA. Thus, increasing the amount of renewable energy is a key step to carbon neutrality. However, integrating a large amount of fluctuating renewable generation is a significant challenge for power grid operating and planning. Grid reliability, i.e., an ability to meet operational constraints under power fluctuations, is probably the most important of them. In this letter, we propose computationally efficient and accurate methods to estimate the probability of line overflow, i.e., reliability constraints violation, under a known distribution of renewable energy generation. To this end, we investigate an importance sampling approach, a flexible extension of Monte-Carlo methods, which adaptively changes the sampling distribution to generate more samples near the reliability boundary. The approach allows to estimate overload probability in real-time based only on a few dozens of random samples, compared to thousands required by the plain Monte-Carlo. Our study focuses on high voltage direct current power transmission grids with linear reliability constraints on power injections and line currents. Herein, we propose a novel theoretically justified physics-informed adaptive importance sampling algorithm and compare its performance to state-of-the-art methods on multiple IEEE power grid test cases.

power system faults↗
DOE OSTI2024

Day-to-day reliability of basal heart rate and short-term and ultra short-term heart rate variability assessment by the Equivital eq02+ LifeMonitor in US Army soldiers

Introduction The present study determined the (1) day-to-day reliability of basal heart rate (HR) and HR variability (HRV) measured by the Equivital eq02+ LifeMonitor and (2) agreement of ultra short-term HRV compared with short-term HRV. Methods Twenty-three active-duty US Army Soldiers (5 females, 18 males) completed two experimental visits separated by >48 hours with restrictions consistent with basal monitoring (eg, exercise, dietary), with measurements after supine rest at minutes 20–21 (ultra short-term) and minutes 20–25 (short-term). HRV was assessed as the SD of R–R intervals (SDNN) and the square root of the mean squared differences between consecutive R–R intervals (RMSSD). Results The day-to-day reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC)) using linear-mixed model approach was good for HR (0.849, 95% CI: 0.689 to 0.933) and RMSSD (ICC: 0.823, 95% CI: 0.623 to 0.920). SDNN had moderate day-to-day reliability with greater variation (ICC: 0.689, 95% CI: 0.428 to 0.858). The reliability of RMSSD was slightly improved when considering the effect of respiration (ICC: 0.821, 95% CI: 0.672 to 0.944). There was no bias for HR measured for 1 min versus 5 min (p=0.511). For 1 min measurements versus 5 min, there was a very modest mean bias of −4 ms for SDNN and −1 ms for RMSSD (p≤0.023). Conclusion When preceded by a 20 min stabilisation period using restrictions consistent with basal monitoring and measuring respiration, military personnel can rely on the eq02+ for basal HR and RMSSD monitoring but should be more cautious using SDNN. These data also support using ultra short-term measurements when following these procedures.

General & Internal Medicine↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geometric Tail Approximation for Reliability and Survivability

A common problem in developing high-reliability systems is estimating the reliability for a population of components that cannot be 100% tested. The radiation survivability of a population of components is often estimated by testing a very small sample to some multiple of the required specification level, known as an overtest. Given a successful test with a sufficient overtest margin, the population of components is assumed to have the required survivability or radiation reliability. However, no mathematical justification for such claims has been crafted without making aggressive assumptions regarding the statistics of the unknown distribution. Here we illustrate a new approach that leverages geometric bounding arguments founded on relatively modest distribution assumptions to produce conservative estimates of component reliability.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying grid reliability and resilience impacts of energy efficiency: Examples and opportunities

Traditional reliability and emerging resilience metrics may not fully recognize benefits from distributed energy resources (DERs) such as energy efficiency. This technical brief explains how existing planning processes for bulk power and distribution systems capture the impact of energy efficiency on power system reliability and resilience with illustrative examples. We identify limitations in using existing reliability and resilience metrics to quantify efficiency and other DER benefits. The brief concludes with a discussion of opportunities to enhance current planning practices to better capture the reliability and resilience value of energy efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transmission Operator Workflows for Real-Time Reliability Studies: A Review of Control Room Practices and Naturalistic Decision Making

This report provides an overview of real-time reliability study tools and their use by power system operators in the control room environment. After introducing some of the nuances of the control room environment and the differences in perspectives between power system engineers and operators, the roles and responsibilities of key entities involved in RTCA workflows are introduced. These are specifically the transmission system operator (TOP) and reliability coordinator (RC), which are required to run tools such as real-time contingency analysis (RTCA) as part of a real-time reliability assessment every 30 minutes, as dictated by a series of standards issued by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). The process by which power systems operators operate the grid is discussed in terms of naturalistic decision making (NDM) and the recognition-primed decision-making (RPD) model. This cognitive model describe how experts working in high-risk, high-stress environments make safety-critical decisions under uncertainty and time pressure. For power system operators, the mental simulations involved in the traditional RPD model are supplemented by physics-based simulations using numerical tools, such as RTCA, to improve situational awareness and effectiveness of control actions. Next, a generic workflow is introduced to describe operator decision making for running RTCA tools and responding to system violations on a pre-contingent basis. The types of analysis performed and control actions chosen by power system operators are described in detail. The overall high-level workflow is then expanded in subsequent sections, with special attention given to high-voltage violations, low-voltage violations, and thermal overloads. Each type of violation is described in detail, with explanations of common causes, impacts on equipment and customers, and mitigation strategies. An additional workflow diagram is provided for each type of violation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reliable Determination of Pulses and Pulse-Shape Instability in Ultrashort Laser Pulse Trains Using Polarization-Gating and Transient-Grating Frequency-Resolved Optical Gating Using the RANA Approach

Devices that measure the presence of instability in the pulse shapes in trains of ultrashort laser pulses do not exist, so this task necessarily falls to pulse-measurement devices, like Frequency-Resolved Optical Gating (FROG) and its variations, which have proven to be a highly reliable class of techniques for measuring stable trains of ultrashort laser pulses. Fortunately, multi-shot versions of FROG have also been shown to sensitively distinguish trains of stable from those of unstable pulse shapes by displaying readily visible systematic discrepancies between the measured and retrieved traces in the presence of unstable pulse trains. However, the effects of pulse-shape instability and algorithm stagnation can be indistinguishable, so a never-stagnating algorithm—even when instability is present—is required and is generally important. In previous work, we demonstrated that our recently introduced Retrieved-Amplitude N-grid Algorithmic (RANA) approach produces highly reliable (100%) pulse-retrieval in the second-harmonic-generation (SHG) version of FROG for thousands of sample trains of pulses with stable pulse shapes. Further, it does so even for trains of unstable pulse shapes and thus both reliably distinguishes between the two cases and provides a rough measure of the degree of instability as well as a reasonable estimate of most typical pulse parameters. Here, we perform the analogous study for the polarization-gating (PG) and transient-grating (TG) versions of FROG, which are often used for higher-energy pulse trains. We conclude that PG and TG FROG, coupled with the RANA approach, also provide reliable indicators of pulse-shape instability. In addition, for PG and TG FROG, the RANA approach provides an even better estimate of a typical pulse in an unstable pulse train than SHG FROG does, even in cases of significant pulse-shape instability.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Explained: Fundamentals of Power Grid Reliability and Clean Electricity

Maintaining reliability of the bulk power system, which supplies and transmits electricity, is a critical priority for electric grid planners, operators, and regulators. As we move toward a cleaner electricity system with more technologies like wind, solar, and battery storage, the way in which we plan for and achieve reliability will change. This fact sheet provides additional technical background to the topics covered in three other reliability explainers on how we measure, enforce, and plan for reliable systems with more clean electricity.

POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pool Boiling Reliability Tests and Degradation Mechanisms of Microporous Copper Inverse Opal (CuIOs) Structures: Preprint

The rising power density in electronic systems requires thermal management solutions that are both high-performing and reliable. Porous materials such as Copper Inverse Opals (CuIOs) have unique structural features, including high permeability and high thermal conductivity, to enhance pool boiling performance. However, there is little understanding of the degradation mechanism of such porous materials under pool boiling conditions. In this study, samples of 10-micrometer-thick CuIOs with 4.8-micrometer diameter, covering silicon substrate of area 11-mm by 11-mm, with various heated areas ranging from 2.5-mm by 2.5-mm to 10-mm by 10-mm, were tested in 100 degrees C deionized water at a constant heat flux of 110 watts per square cm for 3-7 days. The combined effect of erosion and corrosion caused structural degradation of the CuIOs. The directly heated area had the most severe degradation while the edge of the heater and the unheated area showed progressively less degradation, maintaining some CuIOs structure even after the 7-day reliability test. Among all the tested samples with various heater sizes, the 2.5-mm by 2.5-mm heater sample - in which the heater size was designed to be comparable to the water bubble characteristic length - had the largest critical heat flux (CHF) up to 300 watts per square cm with a superheat of approximately 13 degrees C. Additionally, CuIOs with a smaller heated area performed better in terms of reliability. This study offers preliminary insights into CuIOs degradation mechanisms, contributing to the development of more robust thermal management solutions. We expect that electroless plating of CuIOs with gold (Au), nickel (Ni), and atomic layer deposition of aluminum oxide in combination with appropriate application-specific coolants will further improve the reliability and lifetime of the CuIOs.

boiling-induced degradation↗