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At least 109 records · Page 6

Reliability modeling in a predictive maintenance context: A margin-based approach

Current system reliability methods (typically based on fault trees or reliability block diagrams) can effectively propagate reliability data from the asset to the system level in order to identify system critical points. However, employed asset reliability data are an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience, and they neglect the present asset health status (available, for example, from online monitoring data and diagnostic assessments) and forecasted health projection (when available from prognostic models). Asset health should be informed solely by that specific asset’s current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience (as currently performed by system reliability models through Bayesian updating processes). Sensor data, diagnostic assessments, and prognostic assessments are in fact not considered in plant reliability models used to inform system engineers on the most critical assets. In addition, the propagation of quantitative health data from the asset to the system level is a challenge given the diverse nature and structure of health data elements (e.g., vibration spectra, temperature readings, expected failure time). Ideally, in a predictive maintenance context, system reliability models should support decision making by propagating available health information from the asset to the system level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system health and identify the most critical assets. Here, this paper is directly addressing these two goals by proposing a different approach for reliability modeling that relies on asset diagnostic and prognostic assessments, along with monitoring data to measure asset health. The propagation of health data from the asset to the system level is performed through fault tree models not in probability terms, but in terms of margin where margin is the “distance” between the present status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Through a cause-effect lens, while classical reliability models target the effect associated with asset performance, a margin-based approach focuses on the cause of an undesired asset performance (i.e., its health). Hence, thinking of reliability in terms of margins implies decision-making based on causal reasoning. We will show how fault tree models can be solved using a margin language and how this process can effectively assist system engineers to identify the most critical assets.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

In-situ sensor monitoring of multi-class gas porosity formation in laser powder bed fusion using convolutional neural network

In-situ monitoring of defect formation remains a significant challenge in the laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) process. Recent advances have enabled real-time defect detection with machine learning and in-situ sensing technologies; however, most studies focus on binary classification of keyhole pores, limiting nuanced multi-class pore differentiation and formation mechanisms. This work introduces a multi-class pore detection framework (no pore, small pores < 15 µm, and large pores > 15 µm) by leveraging photodiode sensor data alongside high-fidelity synchrotron X-ray imaging. The 15 µm threshold is selected to distinguish between two fundamentally different defect mechanisms, following the physical size-mechanism boundary established by prior high-resolution synchrotron X-ray characterization of Al6061 LPBF. Distinguishing these classes is critical because large keyhole pores are structurally detrimental, whereas small gas pores are often benign, requiring different process control strategies. Thermal emission monitoring data collected simultaneously with high-speed X-ray imaging at the Stanford Synchrotron Radiation Lightsource (SSRL), are correlated with subsurface melt pool dynamics to establish ground truth. Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) with optimized parameters converts the photodiode time-series signals into time–frequency images, facilitating feature extraction. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) are then applied for real-time multi-class pore classification in an average inference time of 1 ms per signal window. It achieves 79% accuracy and an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC ROC) score of 0.89 with five-fold cross-validation. The results demonstrate that coupling CWT-based feature engineering with CNN architecture enables reliable multi-class pore detection in Al6061 builds using affordable in-situ sensors. This approach advances scalable and affordable quality assurance in additive manufacturing by moving beyond binary defect detection toward more nuanced classification of porosity mechanisms with in-situ sensors and machine learning.

Laser powder bed fusion, Multi-class pores, In-sit↗

Electrification FY2020 Annual Progress Report

The Electric Drive Technologies (EDT) program’s mission is to conduct early-stage research and development on transportation electrification technologies that accelerate the development of cost-effective and compact electric traction drive systems that meet or exceed performance and reliability requirements of internal combustion engine (ICE)-based vehicles, thereby enabling electrification across all light-duty vehicle types.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Electrification 2022 Annual Progress Report

The Electric Drive Technologies (EDT) program's mission is to conduct early-stage research and development on transportation electrification technologies that accelerate the development of cost-effective and compact electric traction drive systems that meet or exceed performance and reliability requirements of internal combustion engine (ICE)-based vehicles, thereby enabling electrification across all light-duty vehicle types. The Grid and Charging Infrastructure (G&I) program's mission is to conduct early-stage research and development on transportation electrification technologies that enable reduced petroleum consumption by light, medium, and heavy-duty vehicles. The program identifies and enables the role of vehicles in the future electrical grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Electrification (2023 Annual Progress Report)

This document summarizes the progress of VTO Electrification R&D projects supported during the fiscal year 2023. The Electric Drive Technologies (EDT) program’s mission is to conduct early-stage research and development on transportation electrification technologies that accelerate the development of cost-effective and compact electric traction drive systems that meet or exceed performance and reliability requirements of internal combustion engine (ICE)-based vehicles, thereby enabling electrification across all light-duty vehicle types. The Grid and Charging Infrastructure (G&I) program's mission is to conduct early-stage research and development on transportation electrification technologies that enable reduced petroleum consumption by light, medium, and heavy-duty vehicles. The program identifies and enables the role of vehicles in the future electrical grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Sockeye Heat Pipe Analysis Code Verification and Validation

Some of the most promising microreactor designs currently under development utilize heat pipe technology to transfer heat from the reactor core to the secondary side heat exchanger, due to the technology’s compactness, efficiency, passivity, and reliability. Sockeye is an engineering-scale heat pipe tool developed under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation Program to be used for the design and safety analysis of microreactors. Sockeye’s core capability lies in a 1D, two-phase, compressible flow model, used to simulate the working fluid inside the heat pipe. Sockeye is built on the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment framework, which allows for seamless multiphysics coupling with other Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation tools and can thus be used in a full-scale simulation of a microreactor assembly, which can include hundreds of heat pipes. This paper presents some initial verification and validation assessments performed for Sockeye. We demonstrate good agreement between Sockeye’s numerical results and steady-state analytic solutions for velocity and pressure drop, with differences attributable to the underlying assumptions made by the analytic solutions. We also show that Sockeye reproduces analytic predictions of key operational limits, such as the capillary limit and the sonic limit. Finally, we compare Sockeye results to experimental data for the SAFE-30 heat pipe module test.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Operando measurement of lattice strain in internal combustion engine components by neutron diffraction

Significance Internal combustion engine components experience extreme thermomechanical cycling during operation, and the continuing need to improve engine efficiency while maintaining or improving reliability drives the development of lightweight materials with improved thermal and mechanical integrity. Understanding the behavior of new materials in dynamic operation requires operando characterization tools, but conventional in situ measurements of material behavior during real engine operation are very limited, and no practical means exist to replicate such extreme dynamics for ex situ study. In this work, we demonstrate that the penetrating power of neutrons can provide noninvasive measurement of lattice strains inside components of a firing engine, enabling the operando study of complex load states and thermal gradients throughout the solid materials.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Inferring Reliability Model Parameters from Expert Opinion

Here, we propose a method for constructing bathtub models of reliability from opinion. The method is intended for reliability studies early in the design and prototyping of a new system, before data concerning reliability has become available. A stylized bathtub curve is presented for soliciting best engineering judgement from technical experts. By pooling these stylized curves, we produce data that can be used to infer parameters for a piece-wise Weibull model of reliability. A numerical example demonstrates the practicality of the method while also highlighting potential pitfalls when working with subjective data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Enhanced Switching Reliability of Hf 0.5 Zr 0.5 O 2 Ferroelectric Films Induced by Interface Engineering

Ferroelectric materials have been widely researched for applications in memory and energy storage. Among these materials and benefiting from their excellent chemical compatibility with complementary metal–oxide–semiconductor (CMOS) devices, hafnia-based ferroelectric thin films hold great promise for highly scaled semiconductor memories, including nonvolatile ferroelectric capacitors and transistors. However, variation in the switched polarization of this material during field cycling and a limited understanding of the responsible mechanisms have impeded their implementation in technology. Here, we show that ferroelectric Hf 0.5 Zr 0.5 O 2 (HZO) capacitors that are nearly free of polarization “wake-up”─a gradual increase in switched polarization as a function of the number of switching cycles─can be achieved by introducing ultrathin HfO 2 buffer layers at the HZO/electrodes interface. High-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) reveals crystallite sizes substantially greater than the film thickness for the buffer layer capacitors, indicating that the presence of the buffer layers influences the crystallization of the film (e.g., a lower ratio of nucleation rate to growth rate) during postdeposition annealing. This evidently promotes the formation of a polar orthorhombic (O) phase in the as-fabricated buffer layer samples. Synchrotron X-ray diffraction (XRD) reveals the conversion of the nonpolar tetragonal (T) phase to the polar orthorhombic (O) phase during electric field cycling in the control (no buffer) devices, consistent with the polarization wake-up observed for these capacitors. The extent of T–O transformation in the nonbuffer samples is directly dependent on the duration over which the field is applied. Here these results provide insight into the role of the HZO/electrodes interface in the performance of hafnia-based ferroelectrics and the mechanisms driving the polarization wake-up effect.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An Engineering Approach for Weld Creep Lifetime Assessment Based on Local Property Measurement

The localized creep failure in the heat-affected zone (HAZ) of Grade 91 steel weldments has been identified as one of the most important factors causing significantly shortened service lifetime and structural integrity issues of welded components in advanced fossil and nuclear power plants. To conduct a reliable creep lifetime assessment, a new engineering assessment approach has been developed by incorporating the experimentally determined local properties of the heterogeneous HAZ. By creep testing a purposely simulated HAZ specimen with in situ digital image correlation (DIC) technique, the highly gradient creep properties across the HAZ of Grade 91 steel was quantitatively measured. A physical creep cavitation constitutive model was proposed to investigate the local creep deformation and damage accumulation within the heterogeneous HAZ, which takes into account the nucleation of creep cavities and their growth by both grain boundary diffusion and creep deformation. The relationship among the local material property, creep strain accumulation, and evolution characteristic of creep cavities was established. The approach was then utilized to investigate the creep response and subsequent life for an ex-service 9% Cr steel weldment by incorporating the effects of pre-existing damages which developed and accumulated during long-term services. The predicted results exhibited quantitative agreement with the DIC measurement in terms of both nominal/local creep deformation as well as the subsequent life under the test conditions at 650 and 80 MPa.

Zhang, Wei↗

Lead-Free Flexible Perovskite Solar Cells with Interfacial Native Oxide Have >10% Efficiency and Simultaneously Enhanced Stability and Reliability

Here we demonstrate an innovative compositional and interfacial engineering approach to achieve Pb-free flexible perovskite solar cells (f-PSCs) with an unprecedented combination of the highest efficiency reported to date (10.43%), together with enhanced operational stability and mechanical reliability. The key to this approach is alloying of an FASnI3 metal halide perovskite (MHP) thin film with Ge2+ to stabilize the Sn2+ oxidation state in the MHP, together with the use of a NiOx hole-transport layer. We show that this results in the in situ formation of a thin amorphous GeO2 native oxide layer at the NiOx/FASn0.9Ge0.1I3 interface. This layer not only passivates that critical interface but also enhances the interfacial mechanical bonding.

efficiency↗

Modular Power Electronics Approach for High Power Dynamic Wireless Charging System

Dynamic wireless power transfer (DWPT) can provide energy to EVs in motion and extend the drive range. Upscaling the charging power to 200 kW (High Power DWPT) reduces the percentage of electrified roadway required, and the solution becomes cost-effective. To smooth the power at the battery and grid, a secondary regulation stage must be added. The DWPT system therefore relies on power electronics to interface with the coils and regulate the power flow. Designing this high power system using wide bandgap devices makes ensuring high efficiency, small size, and reliable operation very challenging, and significant engineering effort is required to build such complicated systems for large-scale installation and deployment. Here, this paper describes a modular design approach for the power electronics to achieve the 200 kW wireless power transfer. As described, the SiC power electronics building block is designed, simulated, and characterized. The approach is validated in the DWPT system to build the inverter, the rectifier, and the DC/DC converter, which demonstrated high performance and reliable operation with 188 kW power.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Evaluating software defined networking solutions to reduce the digital attack surface of nuclear security systems

Most nuclear security systems used today were not designed for today’s threat environment. Systems that were intended to be stand alone are now interconnected. Devices that have a single purpose are built on multi-purpose platforms and communication protocols that, while effective, have no ability to authenticate authorized versus unauthorized commands. These attributes provide an attacker significant ability to affect the system, pivot throughout the interconnected networks, and remain undetected if he/she is able to compromise a single node. Software defined networking (SDN) has been used for years by information technology (IT) cloud service providers to quickly provision or remove servers or other systems to meet changing demand. The same concept has recently been applied to operational technology (OT) systems to enable very fast failover on critical systems that have stringent and deterministic (<5ms) transmit/receive times. By carefully engineering the communication flows through a network using preplanned routes and specific pathways it is possible to achieve deterministic and extremely reliable message delivery even when components fail. This engineering approach to network design has added security benefits including securing the networking control plane, eliminating network scanning and mapping, inhibiting ARP spoofing and host masquerading, eliminating unauthorized network pivoting and enabling greater situational awareness on the network. SDN in OT environments is new but early testing in electrical power and other critical infrastructure has shown it to be a very powerful tool for building reliable networks and reducing the digital attack surface of the network. The authors tested a software defined network switch on a simple physical protection system with components commonly found in nuclear security systems and found improved mitigations to denial of service attacks, lateral movement and network reconnaissance. The paper details the tests and their results.

Cyber security, Nuclear security, software defined↗

Robust production of monovalent bispecific IgG antibodies through novel electrostatic steering mutations at the C H 1-C λ interface

Bispecific antibodies represent an increasingly large fraction of biologics in therapeutic development due to their expanded scope in functional capabilities. Asymmetric monovalent bispecific IgGs (bsIgGs) have the additional advantage of maintaining a native antibody-like structure, which can provide favorable pharmacology and pharmacokinetic profiles. The production of correctly assembled asymmetric monovalent bsIgGs, however, is a complex engineering endeavor due to the propensity for non-cognate heavy and light chains to mis-pair. Previously, we introduced the DuetMab platform as a general solution for the production of bsIgGs, which utilizes an engineered interchain disulfide bond in one of the C H 1-C L domains to promote orthogonal chain pairing between heavy and light chains. While highly effective in promoting cognate heavy and light chain pairing, residual chain mispairing could be detected for specific combinations of Fv pairs. Here, we present enhancements to the DuetMab design that improve chain pairing and production through the introduction of novel electrostatic steering mutations at the C H 1-C L interface with lambda light chains (C H 1-C λ ). These mutations work together with previously established charge-pair mutations at the C H 1-C L interface with kappa light chains (C H 1-C κ ) and Fab disulfide engineering to promote cognate heavy and light chain pairing and enable the reliable production of bsIgGs. Importantly, these enhanced DuetMabs do not require engineering of the variable domains and are robust when applied to a panel of bsIgGs with diverse Fv sequences. We present a comprehensive biochemical, biophysical, and functional characterization of the resulting DuetMabs to demonstrate compatibility with industrial production benchmarks. Overall, this enhanced DuetMab platform substantially streamlines process development of these disruptive biotherapeutics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

CAMERA: A method for cost-aware, adaptive, multifidelity, efficient reliability analysis

Estimating probability of failure in aerospace systems is a critical requirement for flight certification and qualification. Failure probability estimation involves resolving tails of probability distributions, and Monte Carlo sampling methods are intractable when expensive high-fidelity simulations have to be queried. Here, we propose a method to use models of multiple fidelities that trade accuracy for computational efficiency. Specifically, we propose the use of multifidelity Gaussian process models to efficiently fuse models at multiple fidelity, thereby offering a cheap surrogate model that emulates the original model at all fidelities. Furthermore, we propose a novel sequential acquisition function based experiment design framework that can automatically select samples from appropriate fidelity models to make predictions about quantities of interest at the highest fidelity. We use our proposed approach in an importance sampling setting and demonstrate our method on the failure level set and probability estimation on synthetic test functions and two real-world applications, namely, the reliability analysis of a gas turbine engine blade using a finite element method and a transonic aerodynamic wing test case using Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. We show that our method predicts the failure boundary and probability more accurately and at a fraction of the computational cost compared with using just a single expensive high-fidelity model. Finally, we show that our sequential approach is guaranteed to asymptotically converge to the true failure boundary with high probability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Lessons from the IEC Durability of Adhesion Accelerated Test Sequence

The IEC 62788-1-1 and IEC 63209-2 standards use aging sequences for durability of adhesion in photovoltaic (PV) modules, which may be evaluated using the single cantilever beam (SCB) test. Because the encapsulant forms critical interfaces with the front glass and solar cells, degradation at those interfaces under ultraviolet (UV) exposure, elevated temperature, and humidity can lead to interfacial delamination - compromising the long-term reliability. In this work, adhesion durability of UV-transmitting poly(ethylene-co-vinyl acetate) (EVA) encapsulant to glass and to silicon solar cells is evaluated after sequenced UV and damp heat aging (85C/85%RH). Laminates were prepared using StarPhire solar front glass with thin glass or PERC cells, and two EVA formulations with different concentrations of siloxane coupling agent. Adhesion was quantified by measuring critical debond energy using the SCB method. Both formulations exhibit similar qualitative trends, while different adhesion is observed at the periphery despite the use of low-shrink manufacturing. The results show that while glass/EVA adhesion remains stable or increases after UV exposure and shows only moderate changes after damp heat, the EVA/cell interface exhibits an irreversible loss of adhesion following UV and then damp heat exposure. Although glass/EVA interfaces generally exhibit lower debond energies, the EVA/cell interface is significantly more vulnerable to UV-driven degradation, identifying it as the dominant reliability risk location through early- and intermediate-module life. These results demonstrate that accelerated aging sequences can expose large, interface-specific losses in adhesion durability and underscore the importance of interface engineering for long-term PV module reliability.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Drivetrain Reliability Collaborative Update

Pitch bearings, main bearings, and gearboxes in conventional wind turbine drivetrains often do not meet their 20-year minimum specified lifetime, resulting in turbine downtime as well as expensive, time-consuming repairs or replacements. The dominant failure modes of the drivetrain components and the conditions that lead to their failure are not fully accounted for during product design or routinely modeled for life management. Drivetrain reliability improvements and O&M cost reductions remain top priorities for both land-based and offshore wind turbines, especially as wind turbines continue to be deployed in increasingly remote and offshore locations, continue to increase in size, and are becoming expected to be in service beyond their original design life, all of which correspond to an increase in the impact of any reliability issues on O&M costs. This presentation summarizes the most recent activities by NREL and ANL on drivetrain reliability.

bearing↗

Data Center Power Systems: Architectures, Impact on Grid Reliability, Modeling Considerations, and Megawatt-Scale Hardware Testing [Slides]

This slide deck describes typical power systems of large datacenters along with reliability problems to bulk power systems from large-scale integration of datacenters. The slide deck covers the architecture of datacenter power systems, different power electronic converters used inside datacenters, their operation modes, and R&Dopportunities in maintaining grid stability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗