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Results for “Reliability theory”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Accurate and reliable thermochemistry by data analysis of complex thermochemical networks using Active Thermochemical Tables: the case of glycine thermochemistry

Active Thermochemical Tables (ATcT) were successfully used to resolve the existing inconsistencies related to the thermochemistry of glycine, based on statistically analyzing and solving a thermochemical network that includes >3350 chemical species interconnected by nearly 35 000 thermochemically-relevant determinations from experiment and high-level theory. Here, the current ATcT results for the 298.15 K enthalpies of formation are −394.70 ± 0.55 kJ mol −1 for gas phase glycine, −528.37 ± 0.20 kJ mol −1 for solid α-glycine, −528.05 ± 0.22 kJ mol −1 for β-glycine, −528.64 ± 0.23 kJ mol −1 for γ-glycine, −514.22 ± 0.20 kJ mol −1 for aqueous undissociated glycine, and −470.09 ± 0.20 kJ mol −1 for fully dissociated aqueous glycine at infinite dilution. In addition, a new set of thermophysical properties of gas phase glycine was obtained from a fully corrected nonrigid rotor anharmonic oscillator (NRRAO) partition function, which includes all conformers. Corresponding sets of thermophysical properties of α-, β-, and γ-glycine are also presented.

Active Thermochemical Tables↗
DOE OSTI2025

Phase-field model of alloy solidification far from chemical equilibrium at the solid-liquid interface

We further develop a recently introduced phase-field model of far-from-equilibrium alloy solidification under additive manufacturing conditions [K. Ji et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 130, 026203 (2023)]. This model utilizes enhanced solute diffusivity within the spatially diffuse interface region to quantitatively capture solute trapping with a larger interface width, thereby making simulations on experimentally relevant length and timescales computationally feasible. The main developments presented here include testing the robustness of different variational formulations, extending the model to concentrated alloys by incorporating solid and liquid free energies from thermodynamic databases, as illustrated for hypoeutectic Al-Ag alloys with CALPHAD, extending convergence tests as a function of interface width to 3D, and carrying out simulations in both 2D and 3D to examine existing theories of microstructure development. Our results indicate that the simplest variational formulation that interpolates the bulk free-energy density between its solid and liquid forms is the most robust. Remarkably, for hypoeutectic Al-Ag alloys, this formulation yields a high-velocity nonequilibrium phase diagram that is independent of interface width, thereby demonstrating that the framework of enhanced solute diffusivity can be nontrivially extended to concentrated alloys. Other variational formulations have restricted ranges of materials or processing parameters that can be reliably modeled. We use 2D simulations to construct high-velocity microstructure selection maps for dilute Al-Cu alloys. The results validate the important role of latent heat rejection at the interface and extend the limited predictions of linear stability analysis [A. Karma and A. Sarkissian, Phys. Rev. E 47, 513 (1993)] and sharp-interface 1D simulations to fully nonlinear regimes. Furthermore, 3D simulations, carried out using a computationally tractable axisymmetric cellular/dendritic interface shape, demonstrate a good convergence similar to that observed in 2D as a function of interface width. Full 3D simulations, in turn, reveal that the standard theory of absolute stability is a good predictor of the upper critical velocity beyond which steady-state growth becomes unstable, despite the different morphological manifestations of this instability in 2D and 3D.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model-free estimation of completeness, uncertainties, and outliers in atomistic machine learning using information theory

Abstract An accurate description of information is relevant for a range of problems in atomistic machine learning (ML), such as crafting training sets, performing uncertainty quantification (UQ), or extracting physical insights from large datasets. However, atomistic ML often relies on unsupervised learning or model predictions to analyze information contents from simulation or training data. Here, we introduce a theoretical framework that provides a rigorous, model-free tool to quantify information contents in atomistic simulations. We demonstrate that the information entropy of a distribution of atom-centered environments explains known heuristics in ML potential developments, from training set sizes to dataset optimality. Using this tool, we propose a model-free UQ method that reliably predicts epistemic uncertainty and detects out-of-distribution samples, including rare events in systems such as nucleation. This method provides a general tool for data-driven atomistic modeling and combines efforts in ML, simulations, and physical explainability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cluster-dynamics-based parameterization for sulfuric acid–dimethylamine nucleation: comparison and selection through box and three-dimensional modeling

Clustering of gaseous sulfuric acid (SA) enhanced by dimethylamine (DMA) is a major mechanism for new particle formation (NPF) in polluted atmospheres. However, uncertainty remains regarding the SA–DMA nucleation parameterization that reasonably represents cluster dynamics and is applicable across various atmospheric conditions. This uncertainty hinders accurate three-dimensional (3-D) modeling of NPF and the subsequent assessment of its environmental and climatic impacts. Here we extensively compare different cluster-dynamics-based parameterizations for SA–DMA nucleation and identify the most reliable one through a combination of box model simulations, 3-D modeling, and in situ observations. Results show that the parameterization derived from Atmospheric Cluster Dynamic Code (ACDC) simulations, incorporating the latest theoretical insights (DLPNO-CCSD(T)/aug-cc-pVTZ//ωB97X-D/6-311++G(3df,3pd) level of theory) and adequate representation of cluster dynamics, exhibits dependable performance in 3-D NPF simulation for both winter and summer conditions in Beijing and shows promise for application in diverse atmospheric conditions. Another ACDC-derived parameterization, replacing the level of theory with RI-CC2/aug-cc-pV(T+d)Z//M06-2X/6–311++G(3df,3pd), also performs well in NPF modeling at relatively low temperatures around 280 K but exhibits limitations at higher temperatures due to inappropriate representation of SA–DMA cluster thermodynamics. Additionally, a previously reported parameterization incorporating simplifications is applicable for simulating NPF in polluted atmospheres but tends to overestimate particle formation rates under conditions of elevated temperature (>∼300 K) and low-condensation sink (<∼3×10 -3 s −1 ). Our findings highlight the applicability of the new ACDC-derived parameterization, which couples the latest SA–DMA nucleation theory and holistic cluster dynamics, in 3-D NPF modeling. The ACDC-derived parameterization framework provides a valuable reference for developing parameterizations for other nucleation systems.

Shen, Jiewen↗
DOE OSTI2024

Individual Data Sparsity in Smart Thermostat Big Data: Impacts on Modeling Thermostat Use Behavior Dynamics

This study explores the impacts of the sparsity of individual thermostat interaction data on modeling thermostat use behavior dynamics using a dataset of over 100,000 smart thermostats. In developing a data-driven model of Thermal Frustration Theory (TFT), we investigate the challenges and trade-offs in clustering occupant data to enhance predictive accuracy. Our findings reveal that a single, aggregated model fails to capture the diversity of occupant behaviors, resulting in extremely poor prediction performance. Conversely, excessive clustering exacerbates data sparsity, undermining model reliability. By identifying an optimal clustering strategy, we achieve a balance that significantly improves the prediction of manual setpoint changes during demand response (DR) events, enhancing energy management and occupant comfort

Fannon, David↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of interatomic potential and effect of ordering on defect properties in CrMnV

Developing materials that can withstand extreme environments, such as high radiation doses and elevated temperatures, is crucial for next-generation particle accelerators, including the 2.4 MW Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility. High-Entropy Alloys have emerged as promising candidates for beam window materials due to their superior mechanical strength, corrosion resistance, and radiation tolerance. In this study, we focus on the Cr–Mn–V alloy system, developing and employing machine-learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) to investigate the formation of an ordered phase and its influence on defect properties. Using hybrid Monte Carlo-Molecular Dynamics simulations, we observe the formation of a B2-ordered phase at lower temperatures, consistent with Density Functional Theory (DFT) predictions. Ordered structures display a bimodal distribution of migration energies and reduced mean square displacement values, indicating suppressed vacancy diffusion. Our results also show that the migration energy barrier varies based on the atomic species, with Mn and V exhibiting the highest and lowest average barriers, respectively. These findings suggest that atomic ordering inhibits defect mobility, potentially enhancing the radiation resistance of CrMnV alloys. The validated MLIP provides a reliable framework for simulations that are faster than traditional DFT while maintaining the accuracy required to study defect and ordering properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Selective consolidation of learning and memory via recall-gated plasticity

In a variety of species and behavioral contexts, learning and memory formation recruits two neural systems, with initial plasticity in one system being consolidated into the other over time. Moreover, consolidation is known to be selective; that is, some experiences are more likely to be consolidated into long-term memory than others. Here, we propose and analyze a model that captures common computational principles underlying such phenomena. The key component of this model is a mechanism by which a long-term learning and memory system prioritizes the storage of synaptic changes that are consistent with prior updates to the short-term system. This mechanism, which we refer to as recall-gated consolidation, has the effect of shielding long-term memory from spurious synaptic changes, enabling it to focus on reliable signals in the environment. We describe neural circuit implementations of this model for different types of learning problems, including supervised learning, reinforcement learning, and autoassociative memory storage. These implementations involve synaptic plasticity rules modulated by factors such as prediction accuracy, decision confidence, or familiarity. We then develop an analytical theory of the learning and memory performance of the model, in comparison to alternatives relying only on synapse-local consolidation mechanisms. We find that recall-gated consolidation provides significant advantages, substantially amplifying the signal-to-noise ratio with which memories can be stored in noisy environments. We show that recall-gated consolidation gives rise to a number of phenomena that are present in behavioral learning paradigms, including spaced learning effects, task-dependent rates of consolidation, and differing neural representations in short- and long-term pathways.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Selective consolidation of learning and memory via recall-gated plasticity

In a variety of species and behavioral contexts, learning and memory formation recruits two neural systems, with initial plasticity in one system being consolidated into the other over time. Moreover, consolidation is known to be selective; that is, some experiences are more likely to be consolidated into long-term memory than others. Here, we propose and analyze a model that captures common computational principles underlying such phenomena. The key component of this model is a mechanism by which a long-term learning and memory system prioritizes the storage of synaptic changes that are consistent with prior updates to the short-term system. This mechanism, which we refer to as recall-gated consolidation, has the effect of shielding long-term memory from spurious synaptic changes, enabling it to focus on reliable signals in the environment. We describe neural circuit implementations of this model for different types of learning problems, including supervised learning, reinforcement learning, and autoassociative memory storage. These implementations involve synaptic plasticity rules modulated by factors such as prediction accuracy, decision confidence, or familiarity. We then develop an analytical theory of the learning and memory performance of the model, in comparison to alternatives relying only on synapse-local consolidation mechanisms. We find that recall-gated consolidation provides significant advantages, substantially amplifying the signal-to-noise ratio with which memories can be stored in noisy environments. We show that recall-gated consolidation gives rise to a number of phenomena that are present in behavioral learning paradigms, including spaced learning effects, task-dependent rates of consolidation, and differing neural representations in short- and long-term pathways.

Lindsey, Jack W. (ORCID:0000000309307327)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bottomonium suppression in pNRQCD and open quantum system approach

By employing the potential non-relativistic quantum chromodynamics (pNRQCD) effective field theory within an open quantum system framework, we derive a Lindblad equation governing the evolution of the heavy-quarkonium reduced density matrix, accurate to next-to-leading order (NLO) in the ratio of the state's binding energy to the medium's temperature [1]. The derived NLO Lindblad equation provides a more reliable description of heavy-quarkonium evolution in the quark-gluon plasma at low temperatures compared to the leading-order truncation. For phenomenological applications, we numerically solve this equation using the quantum trajectories algorithm. By averaging over Monte Carlo-sampled quantum jumps, we obtain solutions without truncation in the angular momentum quantum number of the considered states. Our analysis highlights the importance of quantum jumps in the nonequilibrium evolution of bottomonium states within the quark-gluon plasma [2]. Additionally, we demonstrate that the quantum regeneration of singlet states from octet configurations is essential to explain experimental observations of bottomonium suppression. The heavy-quarkonium transport coefficients used in our study align with recent lattice QCD determinations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Window observables for benchmarking parton distribution functions

Global analysis of collider and fixed-target experimental data and calculations from lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD) are used to gain complementary information on the structure of hadrons. We propose novel ``window observables'' that allow for higher precision cross-validation between the different approaches, a critical step for studies that wish to combine the datasets. Global analyses are limited by the kinematic regions accessible to experiment, particularly in a range of Bjorken-x, and lattice QCD calculations also have limitations requiring extrapolations to obtain the parton distributions. We provide two different ``window observables'' that can be defined within a region of x where extrapolations and interpolations in global analyses remain reliable and where lattice QCD results retain sensitivity and precision.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Achieving High-Yield Conversion of Janus Transition Metal Dichalcogenides on Diverse Substrates

Janus transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDCs) with intrinsic broken mirror symmetry and vertical dipole moment provide an additional degree of freedom to manipulate material symmetry down to atomic-layer thickness. However, despite advances in synthesis strategies, fundamental understanding of this atomic substitution process remains limited, which has impeded their implementation in advanced devices. Here, by using a room-temperature atomic-layer substitution (RT-ALS) strategy, we systematically investigate the critical factors facilitating the high-yield conversion of Janus TMDCs on diverse substrates. Combining Raman spectroscopy probes, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) measurements, and density functional theory (DFT) calculations, we demonstrate that substrates with enhanced electron doping or larger surface polarity substantially benefit the conversion of Janus TMDCs reaching a near-unity yield. Intriguingly, the strong affinity between Janus TMDCs and substrates (e.g., Au) brings about abnormal Raman spectroscopic phenomena. These findings highlight the significance of substrates in achieving the reliable synthesis of Janus two-dimensional materials with improved homogeneity on various substrates. In addition, this takes us one step closer to utilizing Janus TMDCs as a versatile platform in next-generation optoelectronic devices, sensors, and quantum technologies.

Doping↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reliable p K a Prediction through Efficient Incorporation of Anharmonicity within the Nuclear–Electronic Orbital Framework

Accurate pK a prediction is critical for understanding chemical reactivity and molecular properties across a wide range of applications. Computational approaches usually invoke a harmonic treatment of the vibrational modes for zero-point energies, as well as thermal and entropic contributions. Herein, we present a general protocol for relative pK a prediction that incorporates the significant anharmonic effects using nuclear–electronic orbital (NEO) theory. This protocol is validated against experimental data for a range of molecules in acetonitrile, including protonated nitrogen bases, nitrophenols, anilines, and diamines, as well as cobalt electrocatalysts. For simple acids, the NEO approach offers only a slight improvement over conventional density functional theory with the standard harmonic vibrational treatment, whereas for hydrogen-bonded acids, the NEO approach offers more significantly improved performance at a comparable computational cost. This accessible methodology provides a practical route for accurate pKa prediction in challenging systems and is extendable to related thermodynamic properties such as hydricities and proton-coupled redox potentials.

Density functional theory↗
DOE OSTI2024

Maximized Information Gain of Next Generation Pulsed Power Using Optimized Design of Z-Machine Experiments

This project develops a Bayesian optimization approach to extracting insights from Z Machine experimental data to determine if and how these insights can be used to extrapolate to a larger facility. The primary goal is to address the scientific challenge of informing how confidently experimental conditions can be predicted on a next generation facility, the design of which requires the reliable extrapolation of current high energy density technologies to regimes yet unobserved, except by costly high-fidelity computational models. Maximizing the use of presently available data and understanding how it informs future endeavors is critically important to enable transformative pulsed power and the science of extreme conditions. We explore a Bayesian optimization approach to experimental design which combines information theory, experimental data, and computational modeling to explore how information gain can be maximized.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning interatomic potential for predicting the thermal properties of uranium nitride

We present a combined computational and experimental investigation of the thermal properties of uranium nitride (UN), focusing on the development of a machine learning interatomic potential (MLIP) using the moment tensor potential framework. The MLIP was trained on density functional theory (DFT) data and validated against various quantities including energies, forces, elastic constants, phonon dispersion, and defect formation energies, achieving excellent agreement with DFT calculations, prior experimental results, and our thermal conductivity measurement. The potential was then employed in molecular dynamics simulations to predict key thermal properties such as melting point, thermal expansion, specific heat, and lattice thermal conductivity. To further assess model accuracy, we fabricated a UN sample and performed new thermal conductivity measurements representative of single-crystal properties, which showed strong agreement with the MLIP predictions. This work confirms the reliability and predictive capability of the developed potential for determining the thermal properties of UN.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian model mixing with multireference energy density functional

Reliably predicting nuclear properties across the entire chart of isotopes is important for applications ranging from nuclear astrophysics to superheavy science to nuclear technology. To this day, however, all the theoretical models that can scale at the level of the chart of isotopes remain semiphenomenological. Because they are fitted locally, their predictive power can vary significantly; different versions of the same theory provide different predictions. Bayesian model mixing takes advantage of such imperfect models to build a local mixture of a set of models to make improved predictions. Earlier attempts to use Bayesian model mixing for mass table calculations relied on models treated at single-reference energy density functional level, which fail to capture some of the correlations caused by configuration mixing or the restoration of broken symmetries. In this study we have applied Bayesian model mixing techniques within a multireference energy density functional (MR-EDF) framework. We considered predictions of two-particle separation energies from particle number projection or angular momentum projection with four different energy density functionals—a total of eight different MR-EDF models. We used a hierarchical Bayesian stacking framework with a Dirichlet prior distribution over weights together with an inverse log-ratio transform to enable positive correlations between different models. We found that Bayesian model mixing provides significantly improved predictions compared to the participating models. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dark Matter-Induced Nuclear De-Excitation at SBND with Ab Initio Nuclear Theory

We explore the sensitivity of the Short-Baseline Near Detector (SBND) experiment to light dark matter using MeV-scale electromagnetic activity. Inelastic scattering of dark matter with argon nuclei can excite nuclear states that subsequently de-excite via the emission of MeV-scale photons, producing localized low-energy "blip" signatures in a liquid argon time projection chamber. We perform state-of-the-art ab initio nuclear calculations, including all relevant argon excited states with energies up to 18 MeV, to provide reliable predictions for these signals. After accounting for relevant backgrounds, we find that SBND can probe previously unexplored regions of parameter space for light dark matter.

Dutta, Bhaskar [Bucharest, IFIN-HH; Texas A-M] (OR↗
DOE OSTI2024

Association Kinetics for Perfluorinated n -Alkyl Radicals

Radical-radical reaction channels are important in the pyrolysis and oxidation chemistry of perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). In particular, unimolecular dissociation reactions within unbranched n-perfluoroalkyl chains, and their corresponding reverse barrierless association reactions, are expected to be significant contributors to the gas-phase thermal decomposition of families of species such as perfluorinated carboxylic acids and perfluorinated sulfonic acids. Unfortunately, experimental data for these reactions are scarce and uncertain. Furthermore, obtaining reliable theoretical predictions for such reactions is a laborious and computationally intensive task. Here, in this work, the chemical kinetics of the various association/decomposition reactions producing/decomposing the C 2 -C 4 series of unbranched n-perfluoroalkanes (C 2 F 6 , C 3 F 8 , and C 4 F 10 ) are examined using state-of-the-art ab initio transition-state-theory-based master-equation calculations. The variable-reaction-coordinate transition-state theory (VRC-TST) formalism is employed in computing the microcanonical and canonical rates for the association reactions. Reaction thermochemistry is obtained via composite quantum chemistry calculations and the laddering of error-canceling reaction schemes via a connectivity-based hierarchy approach employing ANL1/ANL0-style reference energies. Lennard-Jones collision model parameters for the considered systems were estimated by a direct dynamics approach, and collisional energy transfer parameters were obtained from analogies to systems of similar size and heavy-atom connectivity. A one-dimensional master equation approach was used to convert the microcanonical rate coefficients from the VRC-TST analysis into temperature- and pressure-dependent rate constants for the association reactions and the reverse dissociation reactions. The data are reported in standardized formats for usage in comprehensive chemical kinetic models for PFAS thermal destruction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Electrochemical dynamics of imidazolium ionic liquids at graphene electrodes for energy storage applications

Electric double layer capacitors (EDLCs) are prominent energy storage systems that constitute the foundation of more reliable and sustainable energy infrastructures. Modern EDLCs often incorporate ionic liquids (ILs) as a key component in their electrolytes, leveraging the high electrochemical stability of ILs to enhance device performance. The performance and functionality of these capacitors also hinge on the interfacial behavior of ILs at electrode surfaces, which remain insufficiently understood. Here, we performed synchrotron infrared nanospectroscopy (SINS) in combination with density functional theory (DFT) calculations to investigate the electric double layers (EDLs) of three imidazolium-based ILs in a custom-designed graphene liquid cell. This approach revealed new insights into the dynamics of IL EDLs and the underpinning factors originating from the IL structures. Variations in anion size and structure were found to tune the ILs’ ability to form EDLs with compact and closely-correlated ion arrangements, which are critical for enhancing their capacitive performance. These findings highlight the intricate interactions between ions governed by their structures and charge behaviors, which underscores the opportunities for targeted design of IL-based electrolytes to optimize EDLC functionality.

Electric double layers↗