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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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Impact of Airborne Radar Uncertainties on Detect-and-Avoid Systems’ Performance

Impact of sensor uncertainty on Detect-and-Avoid (DAA) systems’ performance is investigated. Key metrics analyzed are the loss of DAA well clear ratio, the near-mid-air-collision risk ratio, the alert ratio, and the number of maneuvers per loss of DAA well clear. Sensitivity of these metrics to the magnitude of sensor uncertainty, pilots’ selection of maneuver, and surveillance range is investigated. Benefits of a dynamic buffer around the DAA well clear separation boundary, computed based on track accuracies, are also analyzed. These metrics are computed from open- and closed-loop simulations of a large number of representative encounters between an unmanned aircraft system and a manned aircraft. Results show that sensor uncertainty degrades safety metrics considerably but has only a minor effect on the number of maneuvers per loss of DAA well clear. The number of maneuvers, nonetheless, can be reduced by a 5◦ buffer away from the edge of the range of conflict-resulting heading in pilots’ selection of maneuver.

UAS↗

Creating Portfolio Management Concepts for Highly Agile and Innovative Government Research Programs Using Design Thinking and Lean Startup Methodologies

Managing a research and development (R&D) portfolio presents numerous challenges, such as prioritizing research areas, remaining agile, strategic workforce planning, and measuring return on investment, impact, and innovation. One government R&D program is charged with producing a high degree of innovative, transformational breakthroughs in aviation technology. A practical, structured methodology for strategically prioritizing emerging aviation R&D in such an environment is lacking. The existing multi-criteria decision aid tools are primarily utilized at an enterprise level, take months to set up and collect data, require large teams of experts, are used on an infrequent basis, and are not conducive to a highly innovative, high-risk portfolio. Prior to audaciously creating a new portfolio prioritization process, the exact challenges with portfolio management for R&D projects were identified using the design thinking and lean start-up methods. A key part of this discovery process was interviewing stakeholders, as well as other managers of organizations charged with producing innovative portfolios. These interviews, as well as additional techniques, were used to develop a deeper understanding of the challenges and, subsequently, lay the foundation for development of an effective portfolio prioritization process. Four potential concepts that represent key findings emerged: carefully selected criteria for portfolio assessment and selection, targeted portfolio turnover rate, dynamic portfolio prioritization framework, and streamlined transition or commercialization of R&D. Acting on any one of the resulting portfolio management concepts will increase the transparency and confidence in portfolio decisions and, ideally, result in a greater degree of transformational breakthroughs in aviation technology.

project portfolio management↗

Enhancement of Industry Legacy Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methods and Tools

Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) are integral to nuclear power plant (NPP) operations, having tremendously benefitted the safety of the U.S. reactor fleet for decades. Insights obtained from the models have provided perspectives on a variety of applications, both at the plant and for the regulator. While these models are very useful, they are now being asked to represent and analyze aspects of the plant that were never envisioned by the initial PRA practitioners. Furthermore, heightened demands on the PRA models have led to increased computing power requirements. Additionally, as the complexity of the PRA models increased, the difficulty experienced by non-PRA experts in trying to understand these models, grasp the insights they provide, and effectively use that information has become problematic. The need for research to address key issues regarding PRA tools and methods has never been greater. Although the nuclear power industry has largely been well-served by these tools and methods, the underlying science is dated, remaining mostly unchanged for over two decades. Three areas were identified as most beneficial to address to maintain and improve the usefulness of the current practice legacy PRA tools: improvement in quantification speed, increased ability to efficiently model multi-hazard models, and improvement in modeling human action dependency in PRA. This report provides the outcomes from the FY2021 research into these three areas, identifying potential technical gaps and solutions, and charting the next steps forward to address current PRA challenges.

42 ENGINEERING↗

MERRA Analytic Services: Meeting the Big Data Challenges of Climate Science Through Cloud-enabled Climate Analytics-as-a-service

Climate science is a Big Data domain that is experiencing unprecedented growth. In our efforts to address the Big Data challenges of climate science, we are moving toward a notion of Climate Analytics-as-a-Service (CAaaS). We focus on analytics, because it is the knowledge gained from our interactions with Big Data that ultimately produce societal benefits. We focus on CAaaS because we believe it provides a useful way of thinking about the problem: a specialization of the concept of business process-as-a-service, which is an evolving extension of IaaS, PaaS, and SaaS enabled by Cloud Computing. Within this framework, Cloud Computing plays an important role; however, we it see it as only one element in a constellation of capabilities that are essential to delivering climate analytics as a service. These elements are essential because in the aggregate they lead to generativity, a capacity for self-assembly that we feel is the key to solving many of the Big Data challenges in this domain. MERRA Analytic Services (MERRAAS) is an example of cloud-enabled CAaaS built on this principle. MERRAAS enables MapReduce analytics over NASAs Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) data collection. The MERRA reanalysis integrates observational data with numerical models to produce a global temporally and spatially consistent synthesis of 26 key climate variables. It represents a type of data product that is of growing importance to scientists doing climate change research and a wide range of decision support applications. MERRAAS brings together the following generative elements in a full, end-to-end demonstration of CAaaS capabilities: (1) high-performance, data proximal analytics, (2) scalable data management, (3) software appliance virtualization, (4) adaptive analytics, and (5) a domain-harmonized API. The effectiveness of MERRAAS has been demonstrated in several applications. In our experience, Cloud Computing lowers the barriers and risk to organizational change, fosters innovation and experimentation, facilitates technology transfer, and provides the agility required to meet our customers' increasing and changing needs. Cloud Computing is providing a new tier in the data services stack that helps connect earthbound, enterprise-level data and computational resources to new customers and new mobility-driven applications and modes of work. For climate science, Cloud Computing's capacity to engage communities in the construction of new capabilies is perhaps the most important link between Cloud Computing and Big Data.

Data Analytics↗

Assessment of the State of Communication Delay Research in Preparation for Missions Beyond Low Earth Orbit

NASA’s mission-operations paradigm, established during Project Mercury and minimally evolving through the Apollo Program, Space Shuttle Program, and ISS missions, has primarily depended on real-time support from a ground team of experts. This ground team has served as the safety net for crewed spaceflight missions over the past 60 years, managing the combined state of the mission, vehicle, and crew. However, this operational paradigm, which has seen little change in its Human-Systems Integration Architecture (HSIA), will face challenges during long-duration exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit. Lunar missions may experience one-way communication latencies ranging from 3 to 14 seconds, while Mars missions will encounter up to a 44-minute round-trip latency at a maximum distance from Earth. Communication delays negatively impact the behavioral health and performance of individuals and crews operating across the multi-team space-to-ground system. Previous research indicates that increased isolation and the challenges posed by delayed communication lead to heightened stress, frustration, adverse behavioral symptoms, and reduced individual performance. NASA has investigated the nature and effectiveness of managing this shift in complex operations since early 2000, but additional research is necessary to assess the issues associated with communication latencies and identify effective countermeasures. This work aimed to examine the evidence from 20 years of research on comm delays. We systematically reviewed the past 20 years of communication delay literature, focusing on how this research aligns with relevant, high-priority needs in the HSIA, Team, and BMed Risks. This type of panoramic review has not been done since 2013; a current, aggregated picture of what has been studied and how is needed to inform additional studies and mitigation development. Additional perspectives were gained from interviews with the research participants, operations experts, and communication delay researchers. Results from this effort will help characterize the risk posed by communication latency for upcoming Artemis missions and point toward potential mitigations. The final results will be presented. For the literature review, we formed a search term seed set drawing from languages used in two papers representative of the previous state of knowledge and supplemented it with additional search terms. We conducted literature searches on Google Scholar, PubMed, and Web of Science and searched NASA project archives for output from NASA-sponsored research. This search yielded 150 papers, of which 48 were relevant. SME interviews provided perspective on key communication delay issues and concerns and what is being worked on to mitigate those issues. Preliminary results of the literature review have been presented. Final results to be presented include the results of the literature review and findings from the interviews.

literature review↗

Circulating miRNA Signature Predicts Health Risks Associated with Cancer and Spaceflight

Biological risks associated with space radiation and microgravity are major concerns for long-term space travel. Through a Systems Biology approach, our previous NASA work has shown both TGF signaling pathways and miRNAs have a critical impact on defining health risks with and without space irradiation. We hypothesize that circulating microRNA (miRNA) signatures are driving microvascular disease and muscle degeneration associated with accelerating aging and will be enhanced by exposure to the space environment (radiation and microgravity). We are investigating this hypothesis with both in vivo and in vitro models to test novel antagonist therapies to these miRNA signatures as countermeasures to reduce space radiation-induced health risks. A comprehensive Systems Biology approach is utilized to examine the influence by high atomic number by high (H) atomic number (Z) and energy (E) (HZE) irradiation. To simulate low-dose exposure due to galactic cosmic rays (GCR), we used ions, energy, and doses determined by a NASA consensus formula of 7 different ions to represent GCR (referred to as GCR sim model). To similate high-dose radiation exposure due to solar particle events (SPE), we used a solar particle event (SPE) sim model which gave a total dose of 1Gy protons with energy ranges from 50MeV to 150MeV. C57BL/6 wild-type female mice were utilized for the irradiations with our established simulated microgravity model (hindlimb suspension model) and an in vitro 3D microvasculature tissue model under simulated microgravity (clinostat) conditions was also irradiated. To expand on the circulating miRNA signature determined from our preliminary data, we determined a group of conserved miRNAs which are commonly being regulated in the majority of the organs and tissues throughout the host using our established techniques. MiRNA-sequencing was done on serum (at time of sacrifice), liver, heart, and muscle (soleus muscle) tissue for all radiation groups. Additional validation of the key miRNAs was performed by droplet digital PCR (ddPCR). This revealed a key circulating miRNA signature (consisting of multiple miRNAs) impacting cardiovascular and muscular disease risk. Further in vitro experiments with CRISPR/Cas9 system to knockout the key miRNA signatures, novel self-delivering antagomirs, overexpression of the miRNAs test the functional impact of the miRNA signatures on both microvascular disease and muscle degeneration due to space irradiation. The current work has started to allow the possible development of a novel minimally invasive miRNA based radioprotector to be used as a countermeasure for space radiation. Collectively, understanding of how whole body space radiation impacts microvascular and tissue degeneration through circulating miRNAs will greatly enhance health risk prognostication and provide possible new mechanisms for protection against space radiation. This work is supported by the Translational Research Institute through NASA Cooperative Agreement NNX16AO69A (T-0404) awarded to AB.

Beheshti, Afshin↗

Workshop Report: Rural Electric Cooperative Distributed Energy Resource Business Model Development Workshops

The United States' energy future is being shaped by decades of technology innovation, rapidly changing consumer requirements, and governmental focus on securing reliable, low-cost energy sources. With expanded electrification and increased emphasis on grid reliability coupled with the heightened complexity and risks associated with transmission infrastructure, the use of distributed energy resources (DERs) is more commonly being considered a safe, efficient, and cost-effective way to maintain grid resilience and reliability. Amidst improvements in performance, decreasing costs, and unprecedented federal policy support for DERs, electric cooperatives are considering new opportunities to use these assets to ensure secure and reliable operations for millions of customers. In light of these developments, a series of workshops were held to collaborate on the development of business models for DERs in rural electric cooperative ecosystems. The first workshop was held July 11, 2024, at the Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association Inc. headquarters in Westminster, Colorado (hereafter referred to as the "Tri-State Workshop"). The second workshop was hosted by PNGC Power on Oct. 9, 2024, in Portland, Oregon (hereafter referred to as the "PNGC Power Workshop"). These workshops convened representatives from G&Ts, distribution cooperatives,2 the energy industry, the financial community, the U.S. government, national and regional organizations, and national laboratories to share perspectives on the unique needs, challenges, and opportunities that they face as DERs are further integrated into the grid. The workshops were designed to address the following objectives: (1) develop the enabling attributes of electric cooperative DER business models, (2) explore pathways for generating community benefits from these assets, and (3) identify technical challenges and market risks for DERs in rural electric cooperative service territories. This report outlines key findings and major themes identified by workshop participants that federal agencies, G&Ts, distribution cooperatives, and other entities can consider to advance electric cooperative DER business models.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Mars Sample Return: A Low Cost, Direct and Minimum Risk Design

Current NASA strategy for Mars exploration is seeking simpler, cheaper, and more reliable missions to Mars. This requirement has left virtually all previously proposed Mars Sample Return (MSR) missions as economically untenable. The MSR mission proposed in this paper represents an economical, back-to-basics approach of mission design by leveraging interplanetary trajectory design and limited surface science for shorter mission duration, advanced propulsion and thermal protection systems for mass reduction and simplified mission operations for high reliability. As a result, the proposed concept, called the Fast, Mini, Direct Mars Sample Return (FMD-MSR) mission represents the cheapest and fastest class of missions that could return a 0.5 kg sample from the surface of Mars to Earth with a total mission duration of less than 1.5 Earth years. The constraints require an aggressive mission design that dictates the use of advanced storable liquid propulsion systems and advanced TPS materials to minimize aeroshell mass. The mission does not have the high risk operations of other MSR missions such as orbit rendezvous at Mars, propulsive insertion at Mars, rover operations on the surface, and sample transfer. This paper details the key mission elements for such a mission and presents a feasible and cost effective design.

Wercinski, Paul F.↗

A Case For Intra-rack Resource Disaggregation in HPC

The expected halt of traditional technology scaling is motivating increased heterogeneity in high-performance computing (HPC) systems with the emergence of numerous specialized accelerators. As heterogeneity increases, so does the risk of underutilizing expensive hardware resources if we preserve today’s rigid node configuration and reservation strategies. This has sparked interest in resource disaggregation to enable finer-grain allocation of hardware resources to applications. However, there is currently no data-driven study of what range of disaggregation is appropriate in HPC. To that end, we perform a detailed analysis of key metrics sampled in NERSC’s Cori, a production HPC system that executes a diverse open-science HPC workload. In addition, we profile a variety of deep-learning applications to represent an emerging workload. We show that for a rack (cabinet) configuration and applications similar to Cori, a central processing unit with intra-rack disaggregation has a 99.5% probability to find all resources it requires inside its rack. In addition, ideal intra-rack resource disaggregation in Cori could reduce memory and NIC resources by 5.36% to 69.01% and still satisfy the worst-case average rack utilization.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA's Space Launch System: A Transformative Capability for Exploration

Currently making rapid progress toward first launch in 2018, NASA's exploration-class Space Launch System (SLS) represents a game-changing new spaceflight capability, enabling mission profiles that are currently impossible. Designed to launch human deep-space missions farther into space than ever before, the initial configuration of SLS will be able to deliver more than 70 metric tons of payload to low Earth orbit (LEO), and will send NASA's new Orion crew vehicle into lunar orbit. Plans call for the rocket to evolve on its second flight, via a new upper stage, to a more powerful configuration capable of lofting 105 t to LEO or comanifesting additional systems with Orion on launches to the lunar vicinity. Ultimately, SLS will evolve to a configuration capable of delivering more than 130 t to LEO. SLS is a foundational asset for NASA's Journey to Mars, and has been recognized by the International Space Exploration Coordination Group as a key element for cooperative missions beyond LEO. In order to enable human deep-space exploration, SLS provides unrivaled mass, volume, and departure energy for payloads, offering numerous benefits for a variety of other missions. For robotic science probes to the outer solar system, for example, SLS can cut transit times to less than half that of currently available vehicles, producing earlier data return, enhancing iterative exploration, and reducing mission cost and risk. In the field of astrophysics, SLS' high payload volume, in the form of payload fairings with a diameter of up to 10 meters, creates the opportunity for launch of large-aperture telescopes providing an unprecedented look at our universe, and offers the ability to conduct crewed servicing missions to observatories stationed at locations beyond low Earth orbit. At the other end of the spectrum, SLS opens access to deep space for low-cost missions in the form of smallsats. The first launch of SLS will deliver beyond LEO 13 6U smallsat payloads, representing multiple disciplines, including three spacecraft competitively chosen through NASA's Centennial Challenges competition. Private organizations have also identified benefits of SLS for unique public-private partnerships. This paper will give an overview of SLS' capabilities and its current status, and discuss the vehicle's potential for human exploration of deep space and other game-changing utilization opportunities.

Robinson, Kimberly F.↗

NASA's Space Launch System: A Transformative Capability for Exploration

Currently making rapid progress toward first launch in 2018, NASA's exploration-class Space Launch System (SLS) represents a game-changing new spaceflight capability, enabling mission profiles that are currently impossible. Designed to launch human deep-space missions farther into space than ever before, the initial configuration of SLS will be able to deliver more than 70 metric tons of payload to low Earth orbit (LEO), and will send NASA's new Orion crew vehicle into lunar orbit. Plans call for the rocket to evolve on its second flight, via a new upper stage, to a more powerful configuration capable of lofting 105 tons to LEO or co-manifesting additional systems with Orion on launches to the lunar vicinity. Ultimately, SLS will evolve to a configuration capable of delivering more than 130 tons to LEO. SLS is a foundational asset for NASA's Journey to Mars, and has been recognized by the International Space Exploration Coordination Group as a key element for cooperative missions beyond LEO. In order to enable human deep-space exploration, SLS provides unrivaled mass, volume, and departure energy for payloads, offering numerous benefits for a variety of other missions. For robotic science probes to the outer solar system, for example, SLS can cut transit times to less than half that of currently available vehicles, producing earlier data return, enhancing iterative exploration, and reducing mission cost and risk. In the field of astrophysics, SLS' high payload volume, in the form of payload fairings with a diameter of up to 10 meters, creates the opportunity for launch of large-aperture telescopes providing an unprecedented look at our universe, and offers the ability to conduct crewed servicing missions to observatories stationed at locations beyond low Earth orbit. At the other end of the spectrum, SLS opens access to deep space for low-cost missions in the form of smallsats. The first launch of SLS will deliver beyond LEO 13 6-unit smallsat payloads, representing multiple disciplines, including three spacecraft competitively chosen through NASA's Centennial Challenges competition. Private organizations have also identified benefits of SLS for unique public-private partnerships. This paper will give an overview of SLS' capabilities and its current status, and discuss the vehicle's potential for human exploration of deep space and other game-changing utilization opportunities.

Robinson, Kimberly F.↗

Paragenetic controls on CO 2 -fluid-rock interaction and weakening in a macroporous-dominated sandstone

The injection and storage of anthropogenic CO 2 in the subsurface is being deployed as a climate change mitigation tool; however, diagenetic-paragenetic heterogeneity in sandstone reservoirs often contributes to interval specific chemomechanical changes that affect injection and can increase leakage risk.In this paper we address reservoir heterogeneities’ impact on chemomechanical changes in a macroporous-dominated lithofacies of Morrow B sandstone, a formation containing several diagenetically-distinct hydraulic facies while undergoing enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sequestration. We performed three flow-through experiments using a CO 2 -charged or uncharged formation water combined with four indirect tensile strength tests per post-test sample. We then used the microstructure and paragenetic sequence to understand chemomechanical weakening with key observations as follows: dissolution of carbonates and feldspars changed porosity; increased permeability led to reclassifying each sample in a different hydraulic flow unit; decreased ultrasonic velocity; and did not lead to a loss of tensile strength. Tensile strength maintenance occurred due to the low abundance and minor dissolution of siderite, the stability of quartz, and the relative position of diagenetic ankerite within feldspar. This macroporous-dominated lithofacies is the primary reservoir for the Morrow B Sandstone, and is analogous to other porous sandstone reservoirs. It represents an end-member of a chemomechanically low-risk siliceous CO 2 sequestration and CO 2 -EOR reservoir.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Advanced Transmission Technologies (ATTs) Supplier Cohort Workshops Cohort Summary [Slides]

This Summary slide deck summarizes the key outcomes of the Advanced Transmission Technologies (ATTs) supplier cohort, part of Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Technical Assistance for Digital Assurance (TADA) program. The program aimed to strengthen grid resilience through cybersecurity controls, supply-chain security, and Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) for advanced transmission technologies. The cohort brought together vendors representing the full range of Grid-Enhancing Technologies (GETs), including providers of Dynamic Line Ratings (DLR), Advanced Power Flow Control (APFC), Transmission Topology Optimization (TTO), and High-Performance Conductors (HPCs). Discussions focused on institutional, integration, and operational barriers limiting GET adoption; cybersecurity risks at EMS/SCADA, cloud, and network integration points; and supply-chain transparency issues such as semiconductor dependence and SBOM/HBOM expectations. Participants also addressed operator trust, human-in-the-loop requirements, and challenges with utility adoption, while exploring how CIE can support secure deployment of GETs. This deck represents a consolidated summary of challenges and risks identified by vendors, cross-cutting themes and technology-specific insights from three cohort workshops, and actionable mitigations to guide utilities, vendors, and the Department of Energy in advancing secure, trusted deployment of GETs.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The Cognition Battery: Developing a Normative Database for Spaceflight and Examining the Impact of Prolonged Isolation and Confinement on Cognitive Performance

INTRODUCTION: Astronauts on future long duration space exploration will be required to execute complex tasks in which even minor errors could have devastating consequences. Intact cognition is critical to maintain exceptional performance standards and it is possible that variability even at the highest ends of the performance spectrum will impact operational tasks. Exposure to spaceflight hazards could compromise cognitive performance, and decrements have been documented under conditions of altered gravity and radiation exposure. The cognitive impacts of prolonged isolation and confinement remain relatively unknown. Traditional neuropsychological assessments cannot support earth independent monitoring, do not have normative comparisons for high functioning individuals, and most are not sensitive enough to detect small performance decrements. The Cognition Battery was developed to address these limitations but currently lacks comprehensive normative data. In this project, we aimed to 1) develop a preliminary normative database for astronauts and astronaut surrogates using the Cognition Battery, and 2) characterize differences in cognitive performance after short and long duration analog missions. PARTICIPANTS & METHODS: We assessed baseline cognitive performance by administering the Cognition Battery to 97 astronaut and astronaut surrogates recruited to approximate astronaut demographics (mean age: 39.38, SD=7.62; 35.1% female; 91.7% advanced degrees). For aim 1, we calculated speed and accuracy outcomes for each subtest and summarized the data with descriptive statistics. We examined the relationship between age and performance with Pearsons’s correlations and the relationship between gender and performance with independent samples t-tests. A subset of individuals on short duration (n=48; mean age: 38.18, SD=7.14; 37.5% female; 91.7% advanced degrees) missions of 45 days and long duration (n=34; mean age: 42.12, SD=8.39; 38.2% female; 94.1% advanced degrees) missions ranging from 4-8 months were administered the Cognition Battery during and after their respective missions. For aim 2, we accounted for practice effects using published corrections, and z-transformed post-mission scores using the full sample’s baseline scores. One-way analysis of covariance tests determined the main effect of analog duration on post-mission performance, after accounting for age and gender. The False Discovery Rate method was applied to adjust for multiple comparisons. RESULTS: In the full normative sample, older age was associated with slower reaction times on a processing speed task (r=.39, p=.02), and men were more accurate on processing speed (t=-2.19, p=.03) and faster on sustained attention (t=2.02, p=.049) and risk-taking tasks (t=2.49, p=.02). We observed a main effect of duration on performance on tasks of visual memory (f(1)=5.62, p=.04), processing speed (f(1)=5.48, p=.03), and sensorimotor functioning (f(1)=39.52, p < .001), such that slower performance was observed after long duration missions relative to short. Only sensorimotor functioning was significant after adjustments for multiple comparisons (adjusted p<.001). DISCUSSION: The full sample represents the largest dataset of cognitive performance assessed by the Cognition Battery available and can be used for further research in spaceflight and high-performance populations. Relationships between performance and key demographic variables suggest future research that include age and gender stratification is needed. Our results also show minimal changes in cognitive performance between longer and shorter periods of isolation and confinement.

S I Dev↗

A Technology Development Roadmap for a Near-Term Probe-Class X-ray Astrophysics Mission

This document presents a roadmap, including proposed budget and schedule, for maturing the instrumentation needed for an X-ray astrophysics Probe-class mission. The Physics of the Cosmos (PCOS) Program Office was directed to create this roadmap following the December 2012 NASA Astrophysics Implementation Plan (AIP). Definition of this mission is called for in the AIP, with the possibility of selection in 2015 for a start in 2017. The overall mission capabilities and instrument performance requirements were defined in the 2010 Astronomy and Astrophysics Decadal Survey report, New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics (NWNH), in connection with the highly ranked International X-ray Observatory (IXO). In NWNH, recommendations were provided regarding the size of, and instrumentation needed by, the next large X-ray observatory. Specifically, the key instrumental capability would be an X-ray calorimeter spectrometer at the focus of a large mirror with angular resolution of 10 arc seconds (arcsec) or better. If possible, a grating spectrometer should also be incorporated into the instrument complement. In response to these recommendations, four instrumentation technologies are included in this roadmap. Three of these are critical for an X-ray mission designed to address NWNH questions: segmented X-ray mirrors, transition edge sensor calorimeters, and gratings. Two approaches are described for gratings, which represent the least mature technology and thus most in need of a parallel path for risk reduction. Also, while current CCD detectors would likely meet the mission needs for grating spectrum readout, specific improvements are included as an additional approach for achieving the grating system effective area requirement. The technical steps needed for these technologies to attain technology readiness levels (TRL) of 5 and 6 are described, as well as desirable modest risk reduction steps beyond TRL-6. All of the technology development efforts are currently funded through the NASA Physics of the Cosmos (PCOS) Strategic Astrophysics Technology (SAT) program; some through the end of FY13, others though FY14. These technology needs are those identified as critical for a near-term mission and briefly described in the 2012 NASA X-ray Mission Concepts Study. This Technology Development Roadmap (TDR) provides a more complete description of each, updates the status, and describes the steps to mature them. For each technology, a roadmap is presented for attaining TRL-6 by 2020 at the latest, and 2018 for most. The funding required for each technology to attain TRL-5 and TRL-6 is presented and justified through a description of the steps needing completion. The total funding required for these technologies to reach TRL-6 is relatively modest, and is consistent with the planned PCOS SAT funding over the next several years. The approximate annual cost through 2018 is $8M. The total cost for all technologies to be matured is $62M (including funding already awarded for FY13 and FY14). This can be contrasted to the $180M recommended by NWNH for technology development for IXO, primarily for the maturation of the mirror technology. The technology described in Section 3 of this document is exclusively that needed for a near-term Probe-class mission, to start in 2017, or for a mission that can be recommended by the next Decadal survey committee for an immediate start. It is important to note that there are other critical X-ray instrumentation technologies under development that are less mature than the ones discussed here, but are essential for a major X-ray mission that might start in the late 2020s. These technologies, described briefly in Section 4, are more appropriately funded through the Astronomy and Physics Research and Analysis (APRA) program.

Development↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-17243-DND

This presentation captures ERA Project's effort in using integrated cost-schedule-risk analysis tool, identifying and capturing explicit relationships between program funds, schedule, and discrete risks. The project team merged a myriad of cost and schedule data for timely, objective, uncertainty analysis of the ITD's budget and schedule. The project team conducted detailed schedule uncertainty analysis showing schedule activities and how their interrelationships were impacted, representing an impressive advance beyond routine Gantt charts. Furthermore, the ERA Project collected discrete risk events including their impacts to costs and/or schedule and interwove these risks into cost and schedule logic networks, providing the foundation to conduct cost and schedule analyses. The team integrated this data into the analysis model, providing probabilistic results that were then used by the ERA Project's senior management for decision-making purposes. The ERA Project management team, through technical and pathfinder expertise in integrating cost, schedule, risk, and technical content, consistently provided risk-informed recommendations to Implementing Centers and ISRP senior management which ultimately ensured the successful ARMD Key Decision Point (KDP) review of the ERA Phase 2 ITD Portfolio and increased the likelihood of achieving technical objectives within cost and schedule constraints.

Gaudy M Bezos-O'Connor↗

The cardiac molecular setting of metabolic syndrome in pigs reveals disease susceptibility and suggests mechanisms that exacerbate COVID-19 outcomes in patients

Abstract Although metabolic syndrome (MetS) is linked to an elevated risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), the cardiac-specific risk mechanism is unknown. Obesity, hypertension, and diabetes (all MetS components) are the most common form of CVD and represent risk factors for worse COVID-19 outcomes compared to their non MetS peers. Here, we use obese Yorkshire pigs as a highly relevant animal model of human MetS, where pigs develop the hallmarks of human MetS and reproducibly mimics the myocardial pathophysiology in patients. Myocardium-specific mass spectroscopy-derived metabolomics, proteomics, and transcriptomics enabled the identity and quality of proteins and metabolites to be investigated in the myocardium to greater depth. Myocardium-specific deregulation of pro-inflammatory markers, propensity for arterial thrombosis, and platelet aggregation was revealed by computational analysis of differentially enriched pathways between MetS and control animals. While key components of the complement pathway and the immune response to viruses are under expressed, key N6-methyladenosin RNA methylation enzymes are largely overexpressed in MetS. Blood tests do not capture the entirety of metabolic changes that the myocardium undergoes, making this analysis of greater value than blood component analysis alone. Our findings create data associations to further characterize the MetS myocardium and disease vulnerability, emphasize the need for a multimodal therapeutic approach, and suggests a mechanism for observed worse outcomes in MetS patients with COVID-19 comorbidity.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Supportability Challenges, Metrics, and Key Decisions for Future Human Spaceflight

Future crewed missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) represent a logistical challenge that is unprecedented in human space flight. Astronauts will travel farther and stay in space for longer than any previous mission, far from timely abort or resupply from Earth. Under these conditions, supportability { defined as the set of system characteristics that influence the logistics and support required to enable safe and effective operations of systems { will be a much more significant driver of space system lifecycle properties than it has been in the past. This paper presents an overview of supportability for future human space flight. The particular challenges of future missions are discussed, with the differences between past, present, and future missions highlighted. The relationship between supportability metrics and mission cost, performance, schedule, and risk is also discussed. A set of pro- posed strategies for managing supportability is presented (including reliability growth, uncertainty reduction, level of repair, commonality, redundancy, In-Space Manufacturing (ISM) (including the use of material recycling and In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) for spares and maintenance items), reduced complexity, and spares inventory decisions such as the use of predeployed or cached spares - along with a discussion of the potential impacts of each of those strategies. References are provided to various sources that describe these supportability metrics and strategies, as well as associated modeling and optimization techniques, in greater detail. Overall, supportability is an emergent system characteristic and a holistic challenge for future system development. System designers and mission planners must carefully consider and balance the supportability metrics and decisions described in this paper in order to enable safe and effective beyond-LEO human space flight.

Owens, Andrew C.↗