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NASA NTRS2017

EVA Systems Technology Gaps and Priorities 2017

Performance of Extra-Vehicular Activities (EVA) has been and will continue to be a critical capability for human space flight. Human exploration missions beyond LEO will require EVA capability for either contingency or nominal activities to support mission objectives and reduce mission risk. EVA systems encompass a wide array of products across pressure suits, life support systems, EVA tools and unique spacecraft interface hardware (i.e. EVA Translation Paths and EVA Worksites). In a fiscally limited environment with evolving transportation and habitation options, it is paramount that the EVA community's strategic planning and architecture integration products be reviewed and vetted for traceability between the mission needs far into the future to the known technology and knowledge gaps to the current investments across EVA systems. To ascertain EVA technology and knowledge gaps many things need to be brought together, assessed and analyzed. This includes an understanding of the destination environments, various mission concept of operations, current state of the art of EVA systems, EVA operational lessons learned, and reference advanced capabilities. A combined assessment of these inputs should result in well-defined list of gaps. This list can then be prioritized depending on the mission need dates and time scale of the technology or knowledge gap closure plan. This paper will summarize the current state of EVA related technology and knowledge gaps derived from NASA's Exploration EVA Reference Architecture and Operations Concept products. By linking these products and articulating NASA's approach to strategic development for EVA across all credible destinations an EVA could be done in, the identification of these gaps is then used to illustrate the tactical and strategic planning for the EVA technology development portfolio. Finally, this paper illustrates the various "touch points" with other human exploration risk identification areas including human health and performance.

Johnson, Brian J.↗
NASA NTRS2006

A Holistic Approach for Risk Management During Design

In this paper, an approach for the identification, assessment, mitigation and continuous management of risks during the process of designing a space mission is presented. This approach has been developed by observing the risk patterns that occur at the Project Design Center of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (TeamX) which develops conceptual, concurrent design of Space Missions. TeamX develops an end-to-end conceptual design of a Space Mission in a matter of one or two weeks. As the risk chair in TeamX, the author has had the opportunity to observe the risk patterns that occur during design over the course of many design sessions. This paper introduces an abstraction and generalization of those patterns. Risk is defined as anything that can go wrong, along with its approximate likelihood and consequence. The indicators, and causes, and effects of these risks are cross cutting across the multiple levels of people and processes involved in the design, and the actual design product itself.

reliability analysis↗
NASA NTRS2019

Predictive Modeling for Differential Diagnosis and Mortality Risk Assessment

The prevalence of electronic health record (EHR) systems has brought prodigious biomedical informatics opportunity. Automated machine learning methods can effectively utilize such data and have become common tools for healthcare predictive modeling. Researches in medical informatics have explored the potential of deep learning and classical models in emergent care scenarios. In particular, predicting differential diagnoses for admissions have proven useful in decreasing unnecessary lab tests and improving inpatient triage decision-making. Moreover, identification of high-risk patients for in-hospital mortality is vitally important to maximize allocation of medical resources.The Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) database, containing de-identified critical care inpatient was used in our study. This data set captures hospital patient laboratory measurements, pharmacologic prescriptions, diagnostic data and procedure event recordings. When considering adult patients and discounting admissions with ICU length of stay less than 24 hours, there were 37,787 unique admissions and 30,414 total patients. We examined the top 25 most prevalent ICD-9 group-level disease specificities in MIMIC-III using a multi-label classification model. In-hospital mortality was modeled as binary classification with 4,155 (13%) adult patients that expired, of which 3,138 (75.5%) were in the ICU setting. The metrics AUC, F1 score, sensitivity and specificity values calculated for each disease label measured prediction performance.The usage of ICD-9 group codes reduced feature dimension from 14,567 to 942 and greatly improved distribution of patient diagnostic categories. Disease temporal patterns were captured by considering the most frequently sampled 6 vital signs and 13 laboratory values. Missing data were imputed at each time-stamp. Time-series raw hourly average values were converted into 5 summary features (mean, standard deviation, number of observations, min & max values). Patient demographic variables such as age, gender, marital status and ethnicity were also factored into the modeling. Choi et al showed that contextual embedding of medical data, diagnostic and procedural codes alone can predict future diagnoses with sensitivity as high as 0.79. We utilized an embedding technique called word2vec which allowed sparse representations of medical history to be transformed into dense word vectors. The mappings captured contextual information by treating each admission as a sentence and learning the most likely neighboring words in a sliding window fashion. Binary and multi-label classification was achieved via collapse models, which do not consider temporal information, as well as recurrent neural networks with regularization, Softmax output layer activation together with categorical cross-entropy as the loss function.

US Army collaboration↗
NASA NTRS2024

Climate Extremes and Risks: Links Between Climate Science and Decision-Making

The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a future where actionable climate information is universally accessible, supporting decision makers in preparing for and responding to climate change. In this perspective, we advocate for enhancing links between climate science and decision-making through a better and more decision-relevant understanding of climate impacts. The proposed framework comprises three pillars: climate science, impact science, and decision-making, focusing on generating seamless climate information from sub-seasonal, seasonal, decadal to century timescales informed by observed climate events and their impacts. The link between climate science and decision-making has strengthened in recent years, partly owing to undeniable impacts arising from disastrous weather extremes. Enhancing decision-relevant understanding involves utilizing lessons from past extreme events and implementing impact-based early warning systems to improve resilience. Integrated risk assessment and management require a comprehensive approach that encompasses good knowledge about possible impacts, hazard identification, monitoring, and communication of risks while acknowledging uncertainties inherent in climate predictions and projections, but not letting the uncertainty lead to decision paralysis. The importance of data accessibility, especially in the Global South, underscores the need for better coordination and resource allocation. Strategic frameworks should aim to enhance impact-related and open-access climate services around the world. Continuous improvements in predictive modeling and observational data are critical, as is ensuring that climate science remains relevant to decision makers locally and globally. Ultimately, fostering stronger collaborations and dedicated investments to process and tailor climate data will enhance societal preparedness, enabling communities to navigate the complexities of a changing climate effectively.

climate extremes↗
NASA NTRS2020

In-Flight Detection of Vibration Anomalies in Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Owing to the frequency of occurrence and high risk associated with bearings, identification and characterization of bearing faults in motors via nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods have been studied extensively, amongst which vibration analysis has been found to be a promising technique for early diagnosis of anomalies. However, a majority of the existing techniques rely on vibration sensors attached onto or in close proximity to the motor in order to collect signals with a relatively high SNR. Due to weight and space restrictions, these techniques cannot be used in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), especially during flight operations since accelerometers cannot be attached onto motors in small UAVs. Small UAVs are often subjected to vibrational disturbances caused by multiple factors such as weather turbulence, propeller imbalance or bearing faults. Such anomalies may not only pose risks to UAV's internal circuitry, components or payload, they may also generate undesirable noise level particularly for UAVs expected to fly in low-altitudes or urban canyon. This paper presents a detailed discussion of challenges in in-flight detection of bearing failure in UAVs using existing approaches and offers potential solutions to detect overall vibration anomalies in small UAV operations based on IMU data.

Portia Banerjee↗
NASA NTRS2004

Towards a systems approach to risk considerations for concurrent design

This paper describes the new process used by the Project Design Center at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory for the identification, assessment and communication of risk elements throughout the lifecycle of a mission design. This process includes a software tool, 'RAP' that collects and communicates risk information between the various designers and a 'risk expert' who mediates this process. The establishment of this process is an attempt towards the systematic consideration of risk in the design decision making process. Using this process, we are able to better keep track of the risks associated with the design decisions. Furthermore, it helps us develop better risk profiles for the studies under consideration. We aim to refine and expand the current process to enable more thorough risk analysis capabilities in the future.

concurrent design↗
NASA NTRS2002

Operations Analysis of the 2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle

The Space Launch Initiative (SLI) program is developing a second-generation reusable launch vehicle. The program goals include lowering the risk of loss of crew to 1 in 10,000 and reducing annual operations cost to one third of the cost of the Space Shuttle. The SLI missions include NASA, military and commercial satellite launches and crew and cargo launches to the space station. The SLI operations analyses provide an assessment of the operational support and infrastructure needed to operate candidate system architectures. Measures of the operability are estimated (i.e. system dependability, responsiveness, and efficiency). Operations analysis is used to determine the impact of specific technologies on operations. A conceptual path to reducing annual operations costs by two thirds is based on key design characteristics, such as reusability, and improved processes lowering labor costs. New operations risks can be expected to emerge. They can be mitigated with effective risk management with careful identification, assignment, tracking, and closure. SLI design characteristics such as nearly full reusability, high reliability, advanced automation, and lowered maintenance and servicing coupled with improved processes are contributors to operability and large operating cost reductions.

Noneman, Steven R.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Systems Analysis of NASA Aviation Safety Program: Final Report

A three-month study (February to April 2010) of the NASA Aviation Safety (AvSafe) program was conducted. This study comprised three components: (1) a statistical analysis of currently available civilian subsonic aircraft data from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing (ASIAS) system to identify any significant or overlooked aviation safety issues; (2) a high-level qualitative identification of future safety risks, with an assessment of the potential impact of the NASA AvSafe research on the National Airspace System (NAS) based on these risks; and (3) a detailed, top-down analysis of the NASA AvSafe program using an established and peer-reviewed systems analysis methodology. The statistical analysis identified the top aviation "tall poles" based on NTSB accident and FAA incident data from 1997 to 2006. A separate examination of medical helicopter accidents in the United States was also conducted. Multiple external sources were used to develop a compilation of ten "tall poles" in future safety issues/risks. The top-down analysis of the AvSafe was conducted by using a modification of the Gibson methodology. Of the 17 challenging safety issues that were identified, 11 were directly addressed by the AvSafe program research portfolio.

Jones, Sharon M.↗
NASA NTRS2026

A Summary of Test and Analysis Results from a Second Lift+Cruise Full-Scale Drop Test

The realization of advanced air mobility markets is enabling new forms of transportation to take shape in the United States and around the world. Though currently in development, as these markets mature, new types of vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) vehicles have been undergoing development for use. There are many factors which must be addressed prior to these types of vehicles becoming viable alternative forms of transportation in these markets. These factors include incorporation into the existing airspaces, the logistics of operating in urban environments, along with numerous factors associated with safety and reliability. To address some of the safety aspects associated with the development of these new types of vehicles, NASA has been conducting research into the performance of an example electric VTOL (eVTOL) aircraft as a part of the Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technology (RVLT) project. Over the course of this research, many aspects including the development of energy absorbing components, the evaluation of seating systems, the development of advanced finite element material model systems and the acquisition of full-scale vehicle impact data were investigated. The report will discuss aspects related to the acquisition of full-scale vehicle data which occurred in the form of a full-scale impact test conducted in the Summer of 2025. This test was on a NASA designed Lift+Cruise composite cabin test article and represented a partial capstone in the entirety of previous eVTOL research conducted for the project. In this test, a variety of experiments were included in order to investigate the effect of a full-scale environment on the experiment results. In parallel, the development of a computational impact model to simulate the full-scale test will be discussed in this report. A model of the Lift+Cruise test article was developed utilizing data collected from previous sub- and full-scale test data and then simulated in the current test environment. The model development, its use in pre-test predictions, and its use in post-test correlation will all be presented. This report will present the test data acquired from the Lift+Cruise test and document several of the results obtained. One intended result is to determine the effect of a complex full-scale crash impact on the identification of occupant injury risk within seat and vehicle designs. A second intended result is to determine whether high-fidelity models can be used with some confidence in the prediction of test events and can allow for additional test cases to be simulated without the need of having to conduct additional tests. The overall goal of the test is to provide the community with data that can be used for design, development or certification efforts, along with providing data on what an example eVTOL crash incident could entail.

energy storage systems↗
NASA NTRS2017

Identification of Fungal Colonies on Ground Control and Flight Veggie Plant Pillows

The Veggie system focuses on growing fresh produce that can be harvested and consumed by astronauts. The microbial colonies in each Veggie experiment are evaluated to determine the safety level of the produce and then differences between flight and ground samples. The identifications of the microbial species can detail risks or benefits to astronaut and plant health. Each Veggie ground or flight experiment includes six plants grown from seeds that are glued into wicks in Teflon pillows filled with clay arcillite and fertilizer. Fungal colonies were isolated from seed wicks, growth media, and lettuce (cv. 'Outredgeous') roots grown in VEG-01B pillows on ISS and in corresponding ground control pillows grown in controlled growth chambers. The colonies were sorted by morphology and identified using MicroSeq(TM) 500 16s rDNA Bacterial Identification System and BIOLOG GEN III MicroPlate(TM). Health risks for each fungal identification were then assessed using literature sources. The goal was to identify all the colonies isolated from flight and ground control VEG-01B plants, roots, and rooting medium and compare the resulting identifications.

Scotten, Jessica E.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Structured prototyping as risk management

A methodology is presented for integrating the systems-engineering management recommendation of prototyping into the traditional project-management process for developing large-scale systems. The suggested methodology begins with the identification of life-cycle risk areas, outlines the structure and conduct of the prototyping process, and defines the composition of the prototyping team. The methodology includes a step-by-step procedure for creating, executing, and documenting a prototyping test plan to evaluate design alternatives. It is argued that managers who adopt this methodology and apply it rigorously will increase the likelihood that the systems they build will be operationally effective and will be accepted by the intended users.

Hornstein, Rhoda SH.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Identification and Evaluation of Integration and Cross Cutting Issues Across HRP Risks

The HRP Integrated Research Plan contains the research plans for the 32 risks requiring research to characterize and mitigate. These risks to human health and performance in spaceflight are identified by evidence and each one focuses on a single aspect of human physiology or performance. They are further categorized by aspects of the spaceflight environment, such as altered gravity or space radiation, that that play a major role in their likelihood and consequence. From its inception the "integrate" in the Research Plan has denoted the integrated nature of risks to human health and performance, the connectedness of physiological systems within the human body regardless of the spaceflight environment, and the integrated response of the human body to the spaceflight environment. Common characteristics of the spaceflight environment include altered gravity, atmospheres and light/dark cycles, space radiation, isolation, noise, and periods of high or low workload. Long term exposure to this unique environment produces a suite of physiological effects such as stress; vision, neurocognitive and anthropometric changes; circadian misalignment; fluid shifts, deconditioning; immune dysregulation; and altered nutritional requirements. Matrix diagraming was used to systematically identify, analyze and rate the many-to-many relationships between environmental characteristics and the suite of physiological effects. It was also to identify patterns in the relationships of common physiological effects to each other. Analyses of patterns or relationships in these diagrams help to identify issues that cut across multiple risks. Cross cutting issues benefit from a multidisciplinary approach that synthesizes concepts or data from two or more disciplines to identify and characterize risk factors or develop countermeasures relevant to multiple risks. They also help to illuminate possible problem areas that may arise when a countermeasure impacts risks other than those which it was developed to mitigate, or identify groupings of physiological changes that are likely to occur that may impact the overall risk posture.

Steinberg, S. L.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Flightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP) Model for Safety Technology Portfolio Assessment

NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) develops and advances methodologies and technologies to improve air transportation safety. The Safety Analysis and Integration Team (SAIT) conducts a safety technology portfolio assessment (PA) to analyze the program content, to examine the benefits and risks of products with respect to program goals, and to support programmatic decision making. The PA process includes systematic identification of current and future safety risks as well as tracking several quantitative and qualitative metrics to ensure the program goals are addressing prominent safety risks accurately and effectively. One of the metrics within the PA process involves using quantitative aviation safety models to gauge the impact of the safety products. This paper demonstrates the role of aviation safety modeling by providing model outputs and evaluating a sample of portfolio elements using the Flightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP) model. The model enables not only ranking of the quantitative relative risk reduction impact of all portfolio elements, but also highlighting the areas with high potential impact via sensitivity and gap analyses in support of the program office. Although the model outputs are preliminary and products are notional, the process shown in this paper is essential to a comprehensive PA of NASA's safety products in the current program and future programs/projects.

Ancel, Ersin↗
NASA NTRS2011

Identifying Geographic Areas at Risk of Soil-transmitted Helminthes Infection Using Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems: Boaco, Nicaragua as a Case Study

Several types of intestinal nematodes, that can infect humans and specially school-age children living in poverty, develop part of their life cycle in soil. Presence and survival of these parasites in the soil depend on given environmental characteristics like temperature and moisture that can be inferred with remote sensing (RS) technology. Prevalence of diseases caused by these parasitic worms can be controlled and even eradicated with anthelmintic drug treatments and sanitation improvement. Reliable and updated identification of geographic areas at risk is required to implement effective public health programs; to calculate amount of drug required and to distribute funding for sanitation projects. RS technology and geographical information systems (GIS) will be used to analyze for associations between in situ prevalence and remotely sensed data in order to establish RS proxies of environmental parameters that indicate the presence of these parasits. In situ data on helminthisasis will be overlaid over an ecological map derived from RS data using ARC Map 9.3 (ESRI). Temperature, vegetation, and distance to bodies of water will be inferred using data from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat TM and ETM+. Elevation will be estimated with data from The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). Prevalence and intensity of infections are determined by parasitological survey (Kato Katz) of children enrolled in rural schools in Boaco, Nicaragua, in the communities of El Roblar, Cumaica Norte, Malacatoya 1, and Malacatoya 2). This study will demonstrate the importance of an integrated GIS/RS approach to define clusters and areas at risk. Such information will help to the implementation of time and cost efficient control programs and sanitation efforts.

Moreno, Max J.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Microbial Risk Assessment

Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose-response characteristics may be affected by a potentially dysfunctional crew immune system during a mission. In addition, microbial virulence has been shown to change under certain conditions during spaceflight, further complicating dose-response characterization. An initial study of the applicability of microbial risk assessment techniques was performed using Crew Health Care System (CHeCS) operational data from the International Space Station potable water systems. The risk of infection from potable water was selected as the flight systems and microbial ecology are well defined. This initial study confirmed the feasibility of using microbial risk assessment modeling for spaceflight systems. While no immediate threat was detected, the study identified several medically significant microorganisms that could pose a health risk if uncontrolled. The study also identified several specific knowledge gaps in making a risk assessment and noted that filling these knowledge gaps is essential as the risk estimates may change by orders of magnitude depending on the answers. The current phase of the microbial risk assessment studies focuses on the dose-response relationship of specific infectious agents, focusing on Salmonella enterica Typhimurium, Pseudomonas spp., and Escherichia coli, as their evaluation will provide a better baseline for determining the overall hazard characterization. The organisms were chosen as they either have been isolated on spacecraft or have an identified route of infection during a mission. The characterization will utilize dose-response models selected either from the peer-reviewed literature and/or by using statistical approaches. Development of these modeling and risk assessment techniques will help to optimize flight requirements and to protect the safety, health, and performance of the crew.

Ott, C. M.↗
NASA NTRS1970

NASA Safety Manual. Volume 3: System Safety

This Volume 3 of the NASA Safety Manual sets forth the basic elements and techniques for managing a system safety program and the technical methods recommended for use in developing a risk evaluation program that is oriented to the identification of hazards in aerospace hardware systems and the development of residual risk management information for the program manager that is based on the hazards identified. The methods and techniques described in this volume are in consonance with the requirements set forth in NHB 1700.1 (VI), Chapter 3. This volume and future volumes of the NASA Safety Manual shall not be rewritten, reprinted, or reproduced in any manner. Installation implementing procedures, if necessary, shall be inserted as page supplements in accordance with the provisions of Appendix A. No portion of this volume or future volumes of the NASA Safety Manual shall be invoked in contracts.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2005

Artificial Gravity Research Project

Protecting the health, safety, and performance of exploration-class mission crews against the physiological deconditioning resulting from long-term weightlessness during transit and long-term hypogravity during surface operations will require effective, multi-system countermeasures. Artificial gravity (AG), which would replace terrestrial gravity with inertial forces generated by rotating the transit vehicle or by a human centrifuge device within the transit vehicle or surface habitat, has long been considered a potential solution. However, despite its attractiveness as an efficient, multi-system countermeasure and its potential for improving the environment and simplifying operational activities (e.g., WCS, galley, etc.), much still needs to be learned regarding the human response to rotating environments before AG can be successfully implemented. This paper will describe our approach for developing and implementing a rigorous AG Research Project to address the key biomedical research questions that must be answered before developing effective AG countermeasure implementation strategies for exploration-class missions. The AG Research Project will be performed at JSC, ARC, extramural academic and government research venues, and international partner facilities maintained by DLR and IMBP. The Project includes three major ground-based human research subprojects that will lead to flight testing of intermittent short-radius AG in ISS crewmembers after 201 0, continuous long-radius AG in CEV crews transiting to and from the Moon, and intermittent short-radius AG plus exercise in lunar habitats. These human ground-based subprojects include: 1) a directed, managed international short-radius project to investigate the multi-system effectiveness of intermittent AG in human subjects deconditioned by bed rest, 2) a directed, managed long-radius project to investigate the capacity of humans to live and work for extended periods in rotating environments, and 3) a focused, investigator-initiated project to investigate system-specific adaptation to and from rotating environments. The AG Research Project also includes two major animal research subprojects: 1) a directed, managed ground-based subproject using rodents and, possibly, sub-human primates, to address mechanistic issues that cannot be studied in humans, to rapidly develop higher sample numbers than can be achieved in the human subprojects, and to establish feasible parameter operating bands to reduce the breadth of the human subprojects, and 2) a flight subproject using rodents to estimate the physiological effects of long term exposure to hypogravity and to investigate the effects of contamination by terrestrial gravity in estimating AG effectiveness. The animal flight subproject would be performed aboard ISS using the CAM module in approximately the 2008-201 1 timeframe. The paper will first present an overview of the key biomedical research questions to be answered. It will then describe the overall approaches to be utilized in developing and implementing the AG Research Project, including definition of the intended scientific research, management and development approaches, identification of roles and responsibilities, risk management, and definition of project deliverables. The primary focus of the paper will be on the first of the three ground-based human research subprojects, since it is the only one currently in development and is scheduled to start active subject investigations in April of 2005.

Kamman, Michelle R.↗