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At least 109 records · Page 6

Mapping Canopy Damage from Understory Fires in Amazon Forests Using Annual Time Series of Landsat and MODIS Data

Understory fires in Amazon forests alter forest structure, species composition, and the likelihood of future disturbance. The annual extent of fire-damaged forest in Amazonia remains uncertain due to difficulties in separating burning from other types of forest damage in satellite data. We developed a new approach, the Burn Damage and Recovery (BDR) algorithm, to identify fire-related canopy damages using spatial and spectral information from multi-year time series of satellite data. The BDR approach identifies understory fires in intact and logged Amazon forests based on the reduction and recovery of live canopy cover in the years following fire damages and the size and shape of individual understory burn scars. The BDR algorithm was applied to time series of Landsat (1997-2004) and MODIS (2000-2005) data covering one Landsat scene (path/row 226/068) in southern Amazonia and the results were compared to field observations, image-derived burn scars, and independent data on selective logging and deforestation. Landsat resolution was essential for detection of burn scars less than 50 ha, yet these small burns contributed only 12% of all burned forest detected during 1997-2002. MODIS data were suitable for mapping medium (50-500 ha) and large (greater than 500 ha) burn scars that accounted for the majority of all fire-damaged forest in this study. Therefore, moderate resolution satellite data may be suitable to provide estimates of the extent of fire-damaged Amazon forest at a regional scale. In the study region, Landsat-based understory fire damages in 1999 (1508 square kilometers) were an order of magnitude higher than during the 1997-1998 El Nino event (124 square kilometers and 39 square kilometers, respectively), suggesting a different link between climate and understory fires than previously reported for other Amazon regions. The results in this study illustrate the potential to address critical questions concerning climate and fire risk in Amazon forests by applying the BDR algorithm over larger areas and longer image time series.

Morton, Douglas C.

Signal-Processing Algorithm Development for the ACLAIM Sensor

Methods for further minimizing the risk by making use of previous lidar observations were investigated. EOFs are likely to play an important role in these methods, and a procedure for extracting EOFs from data has been implemented, The new processing methods involving EOFs could range from extrapolation, as discussed, to more complicated statistical procedures for maintaining low unstart risk.

vonLaven, Scott

A Simple, Velocity Dependent, Collision Probability Algorithm for Small Combined Hard Body Radii Close Approach Events

Over the last few years progress has been made in the velocity dependent collision probability problem. Recent progress in this problem has been approached via integration of the probability flux into the surface of the combined hard body object. The algorithm presented uses the surface flux approach and is designed to compute the collision probability rate between two objects given their time dependent states and state error covariance matrices. With regards to the computation of the collision probability (Pc) rate, two major differences exist between the development of this algorithm and the usual Pc algorithm. First, the shape of the at-risk volume is assumed to be a cube rather than a sphere. The size of the cube is chosen so that it circumscribes the usual hard body sphere chosen for the spherical Pc problem. This will result in half the length of a side of the cube being equal to the hard body radius (HBR) of the sphere. Second, it is assumed that the HBR of the cube is much smaller than the smallest combined position uncertainty (σ(sub min) > 5*HBR) at each time point of evaluation. This is necessary as the actual collision probability calculation is based on a first order, small variable expansion in the position components of the Gaussian probability density function. This leads to the collision probability rate being to second order in the combined HBR. The collision probability rate is in a concise, closed form containing exponential and error functions.

Frisbee, Joe

Modernizing Cassini: Approaching Agile After a Decade at Saturn

Software for a long-duration NASA flagship planetary mission faces a combination of challenges – maintaining legacy systems, complex modeling and algorithmic systems, limited funding, very low tolerance for risk, and heavy process requirements. Our team within the Cassini Mission to Saturn has faced these obstacles while applying Agile principles, and we have learned some lessons along the way.

Connell, Andrea

Extracting Lessons of Human Performance and Resilience Management from a Study of Weather-Related Safety Risks and Incidents Reported to NASA's Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS)

We present a study of weather-related incident reports submitted to NASA’s Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) by air carrier pilots and air traffic controllers in the US. Using specific examples, we examine the weather-related risks reported and the relevant aspects of human performance and resilience management exhibited during these incidents. We describe our methods of lesson extraction to maximize learning, including the use of advance algorithms, and we conclude with a review of the weather-related risks encountered and the resilient practices employed to mitigate them.

resilience

Assessment of NPP VIIRS Ocean Color Data Products: Hope and Risk

For several years, the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) NPP VIIRS Ocean Science Team (VOST) provided substantial scientific input to the NPP project regarding the use of Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) to create science quality ocean color data products. This work has culminated into an assessment of the NPP project and the VIIRS instrument's capability to produce science quality Ocean Color data products. The VOST concluded that many characteristics were similar to earlier instruments, including SeaWiFS or MODIS Aqua. Though instrument performance and calibration risks do exist, it was concluded that programmatic and algorithm issues dominate concerns. Keywords: NPP, VIIRS, Ocean Color, satellite remote sensing, climate data record.

Turpie, Kevin R.

Modeling in the State Flow Environment to Support Launch Vehicle Verification Testing for Mission and Fault Management Algorithms in the NASA Space Launch System

Analysis methods and testing processes are essential activities in the engineering development and verification of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) new Space Launch System (SLS). Central to mission success is reliable verification of the Mission and Fault Management (M&FM) algorithms for the SLS launch vehicle (LV) flight software. This is particularly difficult because M&FM algorithms integrate and operate LV subsystems, which consist of diverse forms of hardware and software themselves, with equally diverse integration from the engineering disciplines of LV subsystems. M&FM operation of SLS requires a changing mix of LV automation. During pre-launch the LV is primarily operated by the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) organization with some LV automation of time-critical functions, and much more autonomous LV operations during ascent that have crucial interactions with the Orion crew capsule, its astronauts, and with mission controllers at the Johnson Space Center. M&FM algorithms must perform all nominal mission commanding via the flight computer to control LV states from pre-launch through disposal and also address failure conditions by initiating autonomous or commanded aborts (crew capsule escape from the failing LV), redundancy management of failing subsystems and components, and safing actions to reduce or prevent threats to ground systems and crew. To address the criticality of the verification testing of these algorithms, the NASA M&FM team has utilized the State Flow environment6 (SFE) with its existing Vehicle Management End-to-End Testbed (VMET) platform which also hosts vendor-supplied physics-based LV subsystem models. The human-derived M&FM algorithms are designed and vetted in Integrated Development Teams composed of design and development disciplines such as Systems Engineering, Flight Software (FSW), Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) and major subsystems and vehicle elements such as Main Propulsion Systems (MPS), boosters, avionics, Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C), Thrust Vector Control (TVC), liquid engines, and the astronaut crew office. Since the algorithms are realized using model-based engineering (MBE) methods from a hybrid of the Unified Modeling Language (UML) and Systems Modeling Language (SysML), SFE methods are a natural fit to provide an in depth analysis of the interactive behavior of these algorithms with the SLS LV subsystem models. For this, the M&FM algorithms and the SLS LV subsystem models are modeled using constructs provided by Matlab which also enables modeling of the accompanying interfaces providing greater flexibility for integrated testing and analysis, which helps forecast expected behavior in forward VMET integrated testing activities. In VMET, the M&FM algorithms are prototyped and implemented using the same C++ programming language and similar state machine architectural concepts used by the FSW group. Due to the interactive complexity of the algorithms, VMET testing thus far has verified all the individual M&FM subsystem algorithms with select subsystem vendor models but is steadily progressing to assessing the interactive behavior of these algorithms with LV subsystems, as represented by subsystem models. The novel SFE applications has proven to be useful for quick look analysis into early integrated system behavior and assessment of the M&FM algorithms with the modeled LV subsystems. This early MBE analysis generates vital insight into the integrated system behaviors, algorithm sensitivities, design issues, and has aided in the debugging of the M&FM algorithms well before full testing can begin in more expensive, higher fidelity but more arduous environments such as VMET, FSW testing, and the Systems Integration Lab7 (SIL). SFE has exhibited both expected and unexpected behaviors in nominal and off nominal test cases prior to full VMET testing. In many findings, these behavioral characteristics were used to correct the M&FM algorithms, enable better test coverage, and develop more effective test cases for each of the LV subsystems. This has improved the fidelity of testing and planning for the next generation of M&FM algorithms as the SLS program evolves from non-crewed to crewed flight, impacting subsystem configurations and the M&FM algorithms that control them. SFE analysis has improved robustness and reliability of the M&FM algorithms by revealing implementation errors and documentation inconsistencies. It is also improving planning efficiency for future VMET testing of the M&FM algorithms hosted in the LV flight computers, further reducing risk for the SLS launch infrastructure, the SLS LV, and most importantly the crew.

Trevino, Luis

Joint Chance-Constrained Dynamic Programming

This paper presents a novel dynamic programming algorithm with a joint chance constraint, which explicitly bounds the risk of failure in order to maintain the state within a specified feasible region. A joint chance constraint cannot be handled by existing constrained dynamic programming approaches since their application is limited to constraints in the same form as the cost function, that is, an expectation over a sum of one-stage costs. We overcome this challenge by reformulating the joint chance constraint into a constraint on an expectation over a sum of indicator functions, which can be incorporated into the cost function by dualizing the optimization problem. As a result, the primal variables can be optimized by a standard dynamic programming, while the dual variable is optimized by a root-finding algorithm that converges exponentially. Error bounds on the primal and dual objective values are rigorously derived. We demonstrate the algorithm on a path planning problem, as well as an optimal control problem for Mars entry, descent and landing. The simulations are conducted using a real terrain data of Mars, with four million discrete states at each time step.

Ono, Masahiro

Application and Evaluation of Control Modes for Risk-Based Engine Performance Enhancements

The engine control system for civil transport aircraft imposes operational limits on the propulsion system to ensure compliance with safety standards. However, during certain emergency situations, aircraft survivability may benefit from engine performance beyond its normal limits despite the increased risk of failure. Accordingly, control modes were developed to improve the maximum thrust output and responsiveness of a generic high-bypass turbofan engine. The algorithms were designed such that the enhanced performance would always constitute an elevation in failure risk to a consistent predefined likelihood. This paper presents an application of these risk-based control modes to a combined engine/aircraft model. Through computer and piloted simulation tests, the aim is to present a notional implementation of these modes, evaluate their effects on a generic airframe, and demonstrate their usefulness during emergency flight situations. Results show that minimal control effort is required to compensate for the changes in flight dynamics due to control mode activation. The benefits gained from enhanced engine performance for various runway incursion scenarios are investigated. Finally, the control modes are shown to protect against potential instabilities during propulsion-only flight where all aircraft control surfaces are inoperable.

emergency operation

Application and Evaluation of Control Modes for Risk-Based Engine Performance Enhancements

The engine control system for civil transport aircraft imposes operational limits on the propulsion system to ensure compliance with safety standards. However, during certain emergency situations, aircraft survivability may benefit from engine performance beyond its normal limits despite the increased risk of failure. Accordingly, control modes were developed to improve the maximum thrust output and responsiveness of a generic high-bypass turbofan engine. The algorithms were designed such that the enhanced performance would always constitute an elevation in failure risk to a consistent predefined likelihood. This paper presents an application of these risk-based control modes to a combined engine/aircraft model. Through computer and piloted simulation tests, the aim is to present a notional implementation of these modes, evaluate their effects on a generic airframe, and demonstrate their usefulness during emergency flight situations. Results show that minimal control effort is required to compensate for the changes in flight dynamics due to control mode activation. The benefits gained from enhanced engine performance for various runway incursion scenarios are investigated. Finally, the control modes are shown to protect against potential instabilities during propulsion-only flight where all aircraft control surfaces are inoperable.

aircraft engine performance

Application and Evaluation of Control Modes for Risk-Based Engine Performance Enhancements

The engine control system for civil transport aircraft imposes operational limits on the propulsion system to ensure compliance with safety standards. However, during certain emergency situations, aircraft survivability may benefit from engine performance beyond its normal limits despite the increased risk of failure. Accordingly, control modes were developed to improve the maximum thrust output and responsiveness of a generic high-bypass turbofan engine. The algorithms were designed such that the enhanced performance would always constitute an elevation in failure risk to a consistent predefined likelihood. This paper presents an application of these risk-based control modes to a combined engine/aircraft model. Through computer and piloted simulation tests, the aim is to present a notional implementation of these modes, evaluate their effects on a generic airframe, and demonstrate their usefulness during emergency flight situations. Results show that minimal control effort is required to compensate for the changes in flight dynamics due to control mode activation. The benefits gained from enhanced engine performance for various runway incursion scenarios are investigated. Finally, the control modes are shown to protect against potential instabilities during propulsion-only flight where all aircraft control surfaces are inoperable.

emergency operation

A High-Performance Computing Predictive GNSS Performance Monitor for Autonomous Air Vehicles in Urban Environments

This report offers analysis and design insights for leveraging High-Performance Computing (HPC) to predict line-of-sight (LOS) Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) availability in a city. This work is motivated by the emerging fields of Advanced and Urban Air Mobility (AAM/UAM), where regulatory authorities are seeking city-scale, meter-resolution risk forecasting in order to safely integrate new flight missions with existing urban life and infrastructure. This work addresses the technical challenge of efficiently computing urban GNSS satellite visibility to predict GNSS performance metrics under these requirements. We present a new HPC-optimized shadow casting algorithm variant as a ray-based approach to forecasting satellite visibility. We apply this algorithm variant in a software-defined prognostic service which generates a GNSS navigation risk-correlated map as a path planning-style potential field. We detail dominant computational burdens, viable simplifying assumptions, and different algorithmic implementations, intending to demonstrate a baseline of computation time needed by each stage in such a service. We conclude by analyzing the prototype service’s prediction accuracy compared to receiver data from Corpus Christi, Texas. This informs design trade-offs along the dimensions of hardware, computation time, and tolerable forecasting error (including proportions of false positives and false negatives).

GNSS

Binary Quantum Control Optimization with Uncertain Hamiltonians

Optimizing the controls of quantum systems plays a crucial role in advancing quantum technologies. The time-varying noises in quantum systems and the widespread use of inhomogeneous quantum ensembles raise the need for high-quality quantum controls under uncertainties. In this paper, we consider a stochastic discrete optimization formulation of a discretized binary optimal quantum control problem involving Hamiltonians with predictable uncertainties. We propose a sample-based reformulation that optimizes both risk-neutral and risk-averse measurements of control policies, and solve these with two gradient-based algorithms using sum-up-rounding approaches. Furthermore, we discuss the differentiability of the objective function and prove upper bounds of the gaps between the optimal solutions to binary control problems and their continuous relaxations. We conduct numerical simulations on various sized problem instances based on two applications of quantum pulse optimization; we evaluate different strategies to mitigate the impact of uncertainties in quantum systems. In conclusion, we demonstrate that the controls of our stochastic optimization model achieve significantly higher quality and robustness compared with the controls of a deterministic model.

conditional value-at-risk (CVaR)

Probabilistic structural analysis algorithm development for computational efficiency

The PSAM (Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods) program is developing a probabilistic structural risk assessment capability for the SSME components. An advanced probabilistic structural analysis software system, NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress), is being developed as part of the PSAM effort to accurately simulate stochastic structures operating under severe random loading conditions. One of the challenges in developing the NESSUS system is the development of the probabilistic algorithms that provide both efficiency and accuracy. The main probability algorithms developed and implemented in the NESSUS system are efficient, but approximate in nature. In the last six years, the algorithms have improved very significantly.

Wu, Y.-T.

Program Models Propagation Of Failures

FIRM is software tool for identification of failure and management of risk based on directed-graph ("digraph") approach. Three core algorithms optimized for processing singletons and doubletons and also handle tripletons. FIRM identifies loops in digraphs and displays direct failure paths between any two nodes. Solves for reachability for given node without computing reachability for entire digraph. Represents hybrid between schematic-diagram and fault-tree approaches. Written in C.

Hackler, Donald B.

Towards the Development of a Global, Satellite-based, Terrestrial Snow Mission Planning Tool

A global, satellite-based, terrestrial snow mission planning tool is proposed to help inform experimental mission design with relevance to snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE). The idea leverages the capabilities of NASAs Land Information System (LIS) and the Tradespace Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT C) to harness the information content of Earth science mission data across a suite of hypothetical sensor designs, orbital configurations, data assimilation algorithms, and optimization and uncertainty techniques, including cost estimates and risk assessments of each hypothetical orbital configuration.One objective the proposed observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) is to assess the complementary or perhaps contradictory information content derived from the simultaneous collection of passive microwave (radiometer), active microwave (radar), and LIDAR observations from space-based platforms. The integrated system will enable a true end-to-end OSSE that can help quantify the value of observations based on their utility towards both scientific research and applications as well as to better guide future mission design. Science and mission planning questions addressed as part of this concept include:1. What observational records are needed (in space and time) to maximize terrestrial snow experimental utility?2. How might observations be coordinated (in space and time) to maximize utility? 3. What is the additional utility associated with an additional observation?4. How can future mission costs being minimized while ensuring Science requirements are fulfilled?

Mission Design

Towards the Development of a Global, Satellite-Based, Terrestrial Snow Mission Planning Tool

A global, satellite-based, terrestrial snow mission planning tool is proposed to help inform experimental mission design with relevance to snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE). The idea leverages the capabilities of NASA's Land Information System (LIS) and the Tradespace Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C) to harness the information content of Earth science mission data across a suite of hypothetical sensor designs, orbital configurations, data assimilation algorithms, and optimization and uncertainty techniques, including cost estimates and risk assessments of each hypothetical permutation. One objective of the proposed observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) is to assess the complementary or perhaps contradictory information content derived from the simultaneous collection of passive microwave (radiometer), active microwave (radar), and LIDAR observations from space-based platforms. The integrated system will enable a true end-to-end OSSE that can help quantify the value of observations based on their utility towards both scientific research and applications as well as to better guide future mission design. Science and mission planning questions addressed as part of this concept include: What observational records are needed (in space and time) to maximize terrestrial snow experimental utility? How might observations be coordinated (in space and time) to maximize this utility? What is the additional utility associated with an additional observation? How can future mission costs be minimized while ensuring Science requirements are fulfilled?

Mission Desig

Performance Evaluation of Intelligent Solar Control Software Through Hardware-in-the-Loop (CRADA Final Report)

Recent research has highlighted the potential for solar to act as a zero-marginal-cost and zero-emission flexibility resource on the bulk power system when operated with advanced control systems. To increase the performance of these systems, leading technologies, including machine learning (ML) and hierarchical inverter set point allocation, have been developed by Latimer Controls, Inc. to estimate the headroom of large PV plants for grid operation and control; however, these technologies lack comprehensive validation under real-world application scenarios. Latimer Controls, Inc. received two voucher awards for research at a national laboratory from the Department of Energy American Made Solar Prize Round 6. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was selected to collaborate with Latimer staff to conduct a performance evaluation of Latimer PV control software. The NREL team will develop a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed to perform testing and validation of the Latimer PV control technology in a de-risked yet realistic testbed environment. Latimer and NREL worked together to analyze the test data, draw conclusions from the results, and disseminate the resulting scientific findings. In this CRADA work, we propose to test and validate the real-world application of the Latimer Control solution in an HIL environment. We evaluate the performance of different flexible solar technologies in responding to automatic generation control signals in a closed-loop fashion. In particular, a data-driven potential high limit (PHL) estimation is developed for large solar plants to accurately estimate their headroom so that they have fast and short-time regulation and control capability to participate in grid services and respond to grid signals in real time (e.g., AGC). This PHL estimation algorithm is embedded in a hardware power plant controller (PPC) and tested with an IEEE-39 bus system model developed in RTDS. To account for the varying cloud conditions and diverse inverter dispatches, we developed a 135-MW PV plant with detailed modeling of 27 individual PV modules and inverters using RTDS. The real-world communications used in such big plants, such as ModBus TCP/IP for inverter level and DNP3 for plant level, were developed to emulate the real-world applications in big PV plants. The ML-based PHL estimation method is tested under nine separate weather scenarios against the ‘reference-control’ solution, hereafter referred to as the baseline solution. The baseline method reserves a subset of inverters (reference group) to operate at their PHL at all times and dispatches only the remaining inverters (control group) at curtailed levels to fulfill the flexibility need. Despite being successfully piloted by NREL in California in 2017 and Chile in 2020, there exist two gaps in the state of the art to fully unlock the flexibility of PV plants: a. There is a trade-off between the PHL estimation accuracy and the flexibility range. b. There lacks granularity in the PHL estimation to capture the variation across inverters. The Latimer solution seeks to address these gaps by applying machine learning methods to improve PHL estimation accuracy while accounting for variability at every inverter. Performance metrics were taken from the 2023 Georgia Power CARES utility-scale RFP. The results demonstrate that the ML-based approach outperforms the traditional baseline method in PHL estimation accuracy for 7 of 9 scenarios. The average PHL error across the nine scenarios was 7.40% for the ML-based method, 2.06% less than the 9.46% PHL error average across scenarios that was exhibited by the baseline method. Additionally, the PHL error was below 5% for at least 95% of the testing interval for 3 of 9 tested intervals with the ML approach, whereas it did not achieve this metric for any of the baseline tests. Overall, simulation results indicate the superior performance of an ML-based approach compared to the conventional baseline reference-control approach, showcasing its potential to support grid stability and operational efficiency. This laboratory HIL testing using real PPC, representative power system simulation models in real-time with detailed PV plant and inverter models, and real-world communication protocols gives us confidence that this machine learning based PHL estimation algorithm works well in the hardware PPC and therefore de-risks future field commissioning. The end goal of this project is to advance grid technology to address the grid operation challenges brought by solar plant’s variability and uncertainties in power generation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY