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DOE OSTI2020

Fossil Power Plant Cyber Security Life-Cycle Risk Reduction, A Practical Framework for Implementation

Market conditions are forcing fossil electricity generation facility owners and operators to implement advanced digital technologies. These technologies enable efficiencies, operational flexibility, operations and maintenance efficiencies, and adapting to a transitioning workforce. These digital technologies, however, can increase the cybersecurity attack surface. The purpose of this research was to develop a holistic cybersecurity risk reduction framework for fossil generation facilities. The framework begins with assessing how cyber risk changes across facility life cycles, including plant, system, vendor, and business life cycles. The next phase performs consequence analysis to prioritize high consequence events. Focusing on high consequence events allows owners to use a graded, risk-informed approach to prioritize cybersecurity efforts. The final phase identifies the digital asset attack surface in sensors and instrumentation and control equipment. After the vulnerabilities are identified, the owner selects mitigating cybersecurity control measures (or countermeasures) based on the risk analysis from the previous phases. This report describes the current industry cybersecurity best practices in fossil generation that are based on the first principles for cybersecurity engineering. The report is divided into five sections that describe the implementation of the risk reduction framework and present identified research, methodological, and technology gaps that were identified through this course of research and development.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2025

Application of Cyber-Informed Engineering for Protecting BESS

This white paper synthesizes an array of crucial grid services provided by BESS technology, assesses its architecture and communications, and presents a case study for analysis against the principles introduced by Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE). Furthermore, in walking through the analysis, this paper presents a framework to evaluate risks and solutions when considering BESS components. Asset owners and buyers could perform this analysis to assess their BESS product implementations, alternative inverter-based resources (IBR), and energy management systems (EMS). Battery systems fulfill various roles contingent on the unique market demands and the specific challenges presented by regional grid infrastructures. These roles also vary due to the differing utility models for ownership and operation, which are adapted to meet regional and local capabilities and requirements. Concerns have been raised regarding the potential for adversaries to exploit knowledge of battery operational patterns to orchestrate decisive attacks. However, the security of operational data for these systems may not be the primary vulnerability, as much of this information is already well-understood within the community. Applying a modest degree of subject matter expertise can often yield valuable predictions regarding how a battery will respond under certain conditions, such as grid emergencies, high or low-temperature days, Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) events, and outages. The operational characteristics of batteries are well-documented, and their capabilities, including the risks associated with misoperation and the resulting consequences, are published and understood within the industry. CIE practices represent the next step in gaining functional assurance and providing an acceptable level of risk, regardless of whether a battery vendor can support a trusted and validated supply chain. While this issue has exacerbated supply chain challenges, it is not an isolated condition. This foreign supply route is the primary source of BESS for the U.S. market. Significant efforts are underway through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) to change that. Still, strategic short-term operational mitigations are needed to ensure the security of our operational technology (OT) systems, which are enhanced by instilling trust and are separate from vendors implementing CIE principles.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Tool for the Risk-Informed Management of Critical Mission Resilience

We describe a methodology and tool for the risk-informed management and planning of mission resilience. By mapping concepts of resilience onto the elements of a streamlined risk model we are able to tap the substantial portfolio of established risk concepts to provide rapid insights in the evaluation and high-level screening of prospective resilience enhancement measures. This provides a risk-informed, levelized basis for the comparison of disparate resilience solutions and the means of establishing preferences. The methodology begins with identification of critical missions met by a site, and establishment of the supporting physical assets. Scenarios that would result in failure of these assets are systematically identified. Each scenario comprises three elements: realization of a hazard or threat resulting in loss of resources (the current focus being on power, natural gas, and water) to the asset, failure of measures in place to protect the asset against those losses, and realization of the consequent impacts. These scenarios are quantified in terms of their probabilities of occurrence and the magnitude of the resultant consequences (mission outage time), allowing risk-prioritization to focus resilience enhancement considerations. What-If? analyses are conducted through adjusting elements of the risk calculation to reflect the deployment of prospective resilience measures, by which means the efficacies of each of those measures can be compared using common risk metrics across diverse resilience strategies. This paper will also describe the insights from example applications.

resilience, risk, risk assesment, energy, water↗

DOE OSTI2020

Risk to ecological resources following remediation can be due mainly to increased resource value of successful restoration: A case study from the Department of Energy's Hanford Site

Several nations are faced with the need to remediate large contaminated sites following World War II, the Cold War, and abandoned industrial sites, and to return them to productive land uses. In the United States, the Department of Energy (DOE) has the largest cleanup challenge, and its Hanford Site in the state of Washington has the most extensive and most expensive cleanup task. Ideally, the risk to ecological resources on remediation sites is evaluated before, during, and after remediation, and the risk from, or damage to, ecological resources from contaminants should be lower following remediation. In this paper, we report the risk to ecological resources before, during, and as a consequence of remediation on contaminated units requiring cleanup, and then examine the causes for changes in risk by evaluating 56 cleanup evaluation units (EUs) at the Hanford Site. In this case, remediation includes a restoration phase. In general, the risk to ecological and eco-cultural resources is currently not discernible or low at most contaminated units, increases during remediation, and decreases thereafter. Remediation often causes physical disruption to ecosystems as it reduces the risk from exposure to contaminants. Most new remediation projects at the Hanford Site include ecological restoration. Ecological restoration results in the potential for the presence of higher quality resources after remediation than currently exists on these contaminated lands and facilities. Although counter-intuitive, our evaluation of the risk to ecological resources following remediation indicated that a significant percentage of units (61%) will be at increased risk in the post-remediation period. This increased risk is due to DOE's successful remediation and restoration that results in a higher percent of native vegetation and higher ecological value on the sites in the post-remediation period than before. These newly-created resources can then be at risk from post-remediation activities. Risks to these new higher quality resources include the potential for spread of invasive species and of noxious grasses used in previous cleanup actions, disruption of ecosystems (including those with state or federally listed species and unique ecosystems), compaction of soil, use of pesticides to control invasive species, and the eventual need for continued monitoring activities. Thus, by greatly improving the existing habitat and health of eco-receptors, and maintaining habitat corridors between high quality habitats, the ecological resources in the post-remediated units are at risk unless care is taken to protect them. Many of the negative effects of both remediation and future monitoring (or other future land uses) can be avoided by planning and management early in the remediation process. We suggest DOE and other agencies convene a panel of managers, remediation scientists, regulators, environmental and ecological scientists, Native Americans, economists, and the public to develop a generic list of performance metrics for the restoration phase of remediation, including evaluation of success, which could be applied across the DOE complex.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The hazard components of representative key risks. The physical climate perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II in order to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks, expected to become severe as a consequence of the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions, exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems, and responses through (mal)adaptation measures. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs by holistically assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, their treatment cannot always organize such assessment according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes, often times having to extrapolate the big-picture evolution of risk from either qualitative effects of “low” medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C). In this study we offer as systematic a representation as possible – given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group 1 (WGI) supplemented when needed by more recent literature. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels to the extent possible. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with global average temperature change has been assessed. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - the link to increasing global temperatures can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice-sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different levels of warming remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems when these changes happen in conjunction with these systems’ conditions of exposure and vulnerability, and in lack of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in an often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future possible evolution which represents an important component – if never the only one – of the potential future evolution of risk severity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Excessive radon-based radiation in indoor air caused by soil building materials in traditional homes on Đồng Văn karst plateau, northern Vietnam

Radon-based radiation from natural soil building materials is an important factor likely influencing residents’ health as a contributing source of natural radiation. This work aims to quantify the nuclide-specific α-radiation of isotopes 222 Rn and 220 Rn in common types of houses in a region of northern Vietnam, Ɖông Văn karst plateau, to preliminarily (i) evaluate the total annual effective dose rates and (ii) assess the relative risk of cancer induction from indoor α-radiation for inhabitants. The average 222 Rn concentrations in all house types were lower than 100 Bq m -3 , but 220 Rn abundances were far higher than 222 Rn, even up to >1000 Bq m -3 in air close to a wall of unfired-soil bricks. The estimated total annual effective dose rates from indoor 222 Rn and 220 Rn and their progenies to residents with daily exposure of 13 h in the various types of houses range from 3.1 to 4.3 mSv a -1 for houses constructed with modified materials, but up to higher than 6 mSv a -1 in houses with raw building materials. The average risk of developing lung cancer as a consequence of a lifetime exposure to indoor α-radiation in affected homes ranges from 3.9% to 14.6%. 220 Rn and its metallic progenies contribute more than 80% of the total average lung cancer risk from total radon, being responsible for a range of 2.7–14.6% of the risk of developing lung cancer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Application of multi-criteria decision analysis techniques and decision support framework for informing plant select agent designation and decision making

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Division of Agricultural Select Agents and Toxins (DASAT) established a list of biological agents (Select Agents List) that threaten crops of economic importance to the United States and regulates the procedures governing containment, incident response, and the security of entities working with them. Every 2 years the USDA DASAT reviews their select agent list, utilizing assessments by subject matter experts (SMEs) to rank the agents. We explored the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and a decision support framework (DSF) to support the USDA DASAT biennial review process. The evaluation includes both current and non-select agents to provide a robust assessment. We initially conducted a literature review of 16 pathogens against 9 criteria for assessing plant health and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings to support this analysis. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for ensuring accuracy. Scoring criteria were adopted to ensure consistency. The MCDA supported the expectation that select agents would rank high on the relative risk scale when considering the agricultural consequences of a bioterrorism attack; however, application of analytical thresholds as a basis for designating select agents led to some exceptions to current designations. A second analytical approach used agent-specific data to designate key criteria in a DSF logic tree format to identify pathogens of low concern that can be ruled out for further consideration as select agents. Both the MCDA and DSF approaches arrived at similar conclusions, suggesting the value of employing the two analytical approaches to add robustness for decision making.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Application of multi-criteria decision analysis techniques and decision support framework for informing select agent designation for agricultural animal pathogens

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Division of Agricultural Select Agents and Toxins (DASAT) established a list of biological agents and toxins (Select Agent List) that potentially threaten agricultural health and safety, the procedures governing the transfer of those agents, and training requirements for entities working with them. Every 2 years the USDA DASAT reviews the Select Agent List, using subject matter experts (SMEs) to perform an assessment and rank the agents. To assist the USDA DASAT biennial review process, we explored the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and a Decision Support Framework (DSF) in a logic tree format to identify pathogens for consideration as select agents, applying the approach broadly to include non-select agents to evaluate its robustness and generality. We conducted a literature review of 41 pathogens against 21 criteria for assessing agricultural threat, economic impact, and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings to support this assessment. The most prominent data gaps were those for aerosol stability and animal infectious dose by inhalation and ingestion routes. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for accuracy, particularly for pathogens with very few known cases, or where proxy data (e.g., from animal models or similar organisms) were used to address data gaps. The MCDA analysis supported the intuitive sense that select agents should rank high on the relative risk scale when considering agricultural health consequences of a bioterrorism attack. However, comparing select agents with non-select agents indicated that there was not a clean break in scores to suggest thresholds for designating select agents, requiring subject matter expertise collectively to establish which analytical results were in good agreement to support the intended purpose in designating select agents. The DSF utilized a logic tree approach to identify pathogens that are of sufficiently low concern that they can be ruled out from consideration as a select agent. In contrast to the MCDA approach, the DSF rules out a pathogen if it fails to meet even one criteria threshold. Both the MCDA and DSF approaches arrived at similar conclusions, suggesting the value of employing the two analytical approaches to add robustness for decision making.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Molten Salt vs. Liquid Sodium Receiver Selection Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process

An international team led by NREL analyzed the favorability of two alternative liquid receiver designs for a 700+ degrees C receiver under the Gen3 CSP Liquid Pathway project. The competing liquid heat transfer fluids were a ternary chloride salt and liquid-metal sodium. The team applied a facilitated analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to arrive at a recommended alternative and set a path forward for the project. The AHP criteria were formulated, weighted, and scored by the project leadership team and technical advisory committee consisting of energy industry and CSP experts. The six- month process culminated with a two-day workshop where the sodium alternative was deemed to have both a significantly higher benefit (19.3%) and a lower LCOE (11.4%), with only a slightly higher risk (~3%) than the salt alternative. Consequently, a sodium-receiver design was selected for the Liquid Pathway project, where it will be used to charge a two- tank chloride salt thermal energy storage system.

analytic hierarchy process↗

DOE OSTI2026

The birth of a field through a marriage of scales: urban meteorological modeling meets regional climate modeling

Urban meteorological modeling and regional climate modeling developed largely independently, with each discipline addressing different aspects of atmospheric processes across space and time. In this review, I show that urban climate modeling did not arise as a simple scaling extension of urban meteorological modeling or an add-on to regional climate modeling, but instead emerged through the selective inheritance of complementary strengths from its parents after both disciplines reached sufficient methodological maturity. By tracing the parallel evolution of these disciplines, I demonstrate that urban climate modeling inherited the physically explicit treatment of the built environment developed within urban meteorological modeling, and the hierarchical scale translation and climatological framing that matured within regional climate modeling, allowing urban effects to influence climate-relevant outcomes. Building on this synthesis, I propose an objective, and methodologically-grounded definition of urban climate modeling that distinguishes it from urban meteorological modeling. This distinction is increasingly important as urban climate data informs decisions with long-lived societal consequences, and as ambiguity in terminology risks conflating fundamentally different modeling frameworks with distinct physical meaning and decision relevance. In addition to a clarifying definition, this review outlines a research framework for advancing urban climate modeling through scale-aware coupling strategies that preserve physically consistent urban-atmosphere interactions.

regional climate↗

DOE OSTI2024

Thinking Beyond the Default User: The Impact of Gender, Stereotypes, and Modality on Interpretation of User Needs

Throughout the mechanical design process, designers, the majority of whom are men, often fail to consider the needs of women, resulting in consequences ranging from inconvenience to increased risk of serious injury or death. Although these biases are well studied in other fields of research, the mechanical design field lacks formal investigation into this phenomenon. In this study, engineering students (n = 301) took a survey in which they read a Persona describing a student makerspace user and a Walkthrough describing the user’s interaction with the makerspace while completing a project. During the Walkthrough, the user encountered various obstacles or Pain Points. Participants were asked to recall and evaluate the Pain Points that the user encountered and then evaluated their perceptions of the makerspace and user. Furthermore, the independent variables under investigation were the gender of the user Persona (woman, gender-neutral, or man), the Walkthrough room case (crafting or woodworking makerspace), and the modality of the Persona and Walkthrough (text- or audio-based). Results showed that participants from the Text-based modality were better able to recall Pain Points compared to participants from the Audio-based modality. Pain Points were assessed as more severe when they impacted women users, potentially stemming from protective paternalism. In addition to finding that the gender of a user impacted the way a task environment was perceived, results confirmed the presence of androcentrism, or “default man” assumptions, in the way designers view end users of unknown gender. Promisingly, providing user Persona information in an audio modality significantly reduced this bias compared to text-based modalities, indicating that providing richer detail in user personas has the capability to reduce gender bias in designers.

cognitive-based design↗

DOE OSTI2024

Alternative Pozzolans for Replacement of Fly Ash in Grout: Literature Review for Continuous Improvement of Cement Waste Forms

The Department of Energy (DOE) is currently responsible for treating radioactive and mixed waste, performing environmental restoration, and closing contaminated tanks and facilities resulting from nuclear weapons production during the Cold War. Cementitious reagents are the most widely used materials for (1) chemically stabilizing and encapsulating radionuclides and hazardous metals and (2) solidifying radioactive wastewater. Cementitious grouts and flowable concretes are also the most widely used materials for tank and facility closures and are used extensively for physical as well as chemical stabilization in environmental restoration projects. Ambient temperature radioactive waste cementation is a widely used technology for producing waste forms for final disposal. The current practice of designing and testing waste forms is based on a mid to late 20th century technology approach (i.e., materials, characterization, and test methods) for generating parameters for risk assessments. DOE technology development is needed to address both current, long-term, and emerging issues in this area as new waste streams come online and as regulations, performance knowledge, and risk assessment methodology continue to evolve. Consequently, the use of cementation as a means of treating chemically challenging radioactive liquid waste streams and reactive debris requires an enduring effort.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fossil Power Plant Cyber Security Life-Cycle Risk Reduction: A Practical Framework for Implementation

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fossil Power Plant Cyber Security Life-Cycle Risk Reduction: A Practical Framework for Implementation

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Molten Salt vs. Liquid Sodium Receiver Selection Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process: Preprint

An international team led by NREL analyzed the favorability of two alternative liquid receiver designs for a 700+ °C receiver under the Gen3 CSP Liquid Pathway project. The competing liquid heat transfer fluids were a ternary chloride salt and liquid-metal sodium. The team applied a facilitated analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to arrive at a recommended alternative and set a path forward for the project. The AHP criteria were formulated, weighted, and scored by the project leadership team and technical advisory committee consisting of energy industry and CSP experts. The six-month process culminated with a two-day workshop where the sodium alternative was deemed to have both a significantly higher benefit (19.3%) and a lower LCOE (11.4%), with only a slightly higher risk (~3%) than the salt alternative. Consequently, a sodium-receiver design was selected for the Liquid Pathway project, where it will be used to charge a two-tank chloride salt thermal energy storage system.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Molten Salt vs. Liquid Sodium Receiver Selection Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process

An international team led by NREL analyzed the favorability of two alternative liquid receiver designs for a 700+ degrees C receiver under the Gen3 CSP Liquid Pathway project. The competing liquid heat transfer fluids were a ternary chloride salt and liquid-metal sodium. The team applied a facilitated analytic hierarchy process to arrive at a recommended alternative and set a path forward for the project. The AHP criteria were formulated, weighted, and scored by the project leadership team and technical advisory committee consisting of energy industry and CSP experts. The six-month process culminated with a two-day workshop where the sodium alternative was deemed to have both a significantly higher benefit (19.3%) and a lower LCOE (11.4%), with only a slightly higher risk (~3%) than the salt alternative. Consequently, a sodium-receiver design was selected for the Liquid Pathway project, where it will be used to charge a two-tank chloride salt thermal energy storage system.

central receiver↗

DOE OSTI2022

Integrating Cybersecurity with System Operations and Restoration

This presentation covers the interaction of the discipline of system operations with the discipline of cybersecurity. First is discussion of a number of fundamental concepts for system operators - organizational division of responsibilities, human and machine cooperation, goals, and priorities. The next section covers the importance of cybersecurity for a system operator organization and explains different risk management approaches based on the consequence and frequency of events. Finally the role of system operators in the security of the grid categorized by the NIST Cybersecurity Framework is discussed to present recommendations and ideas for future work.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of the Los Alamos Nuclear Material Packaging Risk Ranking Method

Repackaging nuclear material into robust containers to protect workers and the public has been ongoing at LANL and around the DOE complex for nearly two decades. The number of containers at LANL is around 5,000; limited resources for repackaging material has led to extended repackaging campaigns and the need to prioritize repackaging. Various methodologies have been used to prioritize the repackaging efforts and to demonstrate progress in risk reduction over time (e.g., Boerigter, 1997). The 2000-1 DNFSB recommendation recognized the limited DOE resources for repackaging, and acknowledged the need to “prioritize and schedule tasks to be undertaken with available funds according to consideration of risks.” Later, in DNFSB recommendation 2005-1, in addition to recommending that DOE develop a packaging standard, the Board recommended that “Characterization information should also be used to develop a surveillance program prioritized according to expected material and container risk (including, for example, material type, material form, and the age and type of container).” In response to requests and recommendations from the DOE and DNSFB to prioritize according to worker risk, a risk ranking method based on the potential consequence of dropping a container from 3 meters was developed in 2007 (Smith, 2007) and updated in 2014 (Hoffman, 2014). Various LANL implementation plans for repackaging were developed over the years using this methodology (Stone, 2014). Currently, this method is utilized in conjunction with an algorithm to mitigate programmatic risk to prioritize container repackaging and material processing (Prochnow, 2015). The purpose of this study is to document how the current risk ranking method works, how it is used and potential limitations.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗