Results for “Risk detection” — Page 6

NASA NTRS2017

A Dynamic Model for the Evaluation of Aircraft Engine Icing Detection and Control-Based Mitigation Strategies

Aircraft flying in regions of high ice crystal concentrations are susceptible to the buildup of ice within the compression system of their gas turbine engines. This ice buildup can restrict engine airflow and cause an uncommanded loss of thrust, also known as engine rollback, which poses a potential safety hazard. The aviation community is conducting research to understand this phenomena, and to identify avoidance and mitigation strategies to address the concern. To support this research, a dynamic turbofan engine model has been created to enable the development and evaluation of engine icing detection and control-based mitigation strategies. This model captures the dynamic engine response due to high ice water ingestion and the buildup of ice blockage in the engines low pressure compressor. It includes a fuel control system allowing engine closed-loop control effects during engine icing events to be emulated. The model also includes bleed air valve and horsepower extraction actuators that, when modulated, change overall engine operating performance. This system-level model has been developed and compared against test data acquired from an aircraft turbofan engine undergoing engine icing studies in an altitude test facility and also against outputs from the manufacturers customer deck. This paper will describe the model and show results of its dynamic response under open-loop and closed-loop control operating scenarios in the presence of ice blockage buildup compared against engine test cell data. Planned follow-on use of the model for the development and evaluation of icing detection and control-based mitigation strategies will also be discussed. The intent is to combine the model and control mitigation logic with an engine icing risk calculation tool capable of predicting the risk of engine icing based on current operating conditions. Upon detection of an operating region of risk for engine icing events, the control mitigation logic will seek to change the engines operating point to a region of lower risk through the modulation of available control actuators while maintaining the desired engine thrust output. Follow-on work will assess the feasibility and effectiveness of such control-based mitigation strategies.

engine control↗

NASA NTRS2017

A Dynamic Model for the Evaluation of Aircraft Engine Icing Detection and Control-Based Mitigation Strategies

Aircraft flying in regions of high ice crystal concentrations are susceptible to the buildup of ice within the compression system of their gas turbine engines. This ice buildup can restrict engine airflow and cause an uncommanded loss of thrust, also known as engine rollback, which poses a potential safety hazard. The aviation community is conducting research to understand this phenomena, and to identify avoidance and mitigation strategies to address the concern. To support this research, a dynamic turbofan engine model has been created to enable the development and evaluation of engine icing detection and control-based mitigation strategies. This model captures the dynamic engine response due to high ice water ingestion and the buildup of ice blockage in the engines low pressure compressor. It includes a fuel control system allowing engine closed-loop control effects during engine icing events to be emulated. The model also includes bleed air valve and horsepower extraction actuators that, when modulated, change overall engine operating performance. This system-level model has been developed and compared against test data acquired from an aircraft turbofan engine undergoing engine icing studies in an altitude test facility and also against outputs from the manufacturers customer deck. This paper will describe the model and show results of its dynamic response under open-loop and closed-loop control operating scenarios in the presence of ice blockage buildup compared against engine test cell data. Planned follow-on use of the model for the development and evaluation of icing detection and control-based mitigation strategies will also be discussed. The intent is to combine the model and control mitigation logic with an engine icing risk calculation tool capable of predicting the risk of engine icing based on current operating conditions. Upon detection of an operating region of risk for engine icing events, the control mitigation logic will seek to change the engines operating point to a region of lower risk through the modulation of available control actuators while maintaining the desired engine thrust output. Follow-on work will assess the feasibility and effectiveness of such control-based mitigation strategies.

engine control↗

NASA NTRS2008

Simulation Assisted Risk Assessment Applied to Launch Vehicle Conceptual Design

A simulation-based risk assessment approach is presented and is applied to the analysis of abort during the ascent phase of a space exploration mission. The approach utilizes groupings of launch vehicle failures, referred to as failure bins, which are mapped to corresponding failure environments. Physical models are used to characterize the failure environments in terms of the risk due to blast overpressure, resulting debris field, and the thermal radiation due to a fireball. The resulting risk to the crew is dynamically modeled by combining the likelihood of each failure, the severity of the failure environments as a function of initiator and time of the failure, the robustness of the crew module, and the warning time available due to early detection. The approach is shown to support the launch vehicle design process by characterizing the risk drivers and identifying regions where failure detection would significantly reduce the risk to the crew.

Mathias, Donovan L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Extreme Ionizing-Radiation-Resistant Bacterium

There is a growing concern that desiccation and extreme radiation-resistant, non-spore-forming microorganisms associated with spacecraft surfaces can withstand space environmental conditions and subsequent proliferation on another solar body. Such forward contamination would jeopardize future life detection or sample return technologies. The prime focus of NASA s planetary protection efforts is the development of strategies for inactivating resistance-bearing microorganisms. Eradification techniques can be designed to target resistance-conferring microbial populations by first identifying and understanding their physiologic and biochemical capabilities that confers its elevated tolerance (as is being studied in Deinococcus phoenicis, as a result of this description). Furthermore, hospitals, food, and government agencies frequently use biological indicators to ensure the efficacy of a wide range of radiation- based sterilization processes. Due to their resistance to a variety of perturbations, the non-spore forming D. phoenicis may be a more appropriate biological indicator than those currently in use. The high flux of cosmic rays during space travel and onto the unshielded surface of Mars poses a significant hazard to the survival of microbial life. Thus, radiation-resistant microorganisms are of particular concern that can survive extreme radiation, desiccation, and low temperatures experienced during space travel. Spore-forming bacteria, a common inhabitant of spacecraft assembly facilities, are known to tolerate these extreme conditions. Since the Viking era, spores have been utilized to assess the degree and level of microbiological contamination on spacecraft and their associated spacecraft assembly facilities. Members of the non-spore-forming bacterial community such as Deinococcus radiodurans can survive acute exposures to ionizing radiation (5 kGy), ultraviolet light (1 kJ/sq m), and desiccation (years). These resistive phenotypes of Deinococcus enhance the potential for transfer, and subsequent proliferation, on another solar body such as Mars and Europa. These organisms are more likely to escape planetary protection assays, which only take into account presence of spores. Hence, presences of extreme radiation-resistant Deinococcus in the cleanroom facility where spacecraft are assembled pose a serious risk for integrity of life-detection missions. The microorganism described herein was isolated from the surfaces of the cleanroom facility in which the Phoenix Lander was assembled. The isolated bacterial strain was subjected to a comprehensive polyphasic analysis to characterize its taxonomic position. This bacterium exhibits very low 16SrRNA similarity with any other environmental isolate reported to date. Both phenotypic and phylogenetic analyses clearly indicate that this isolate belongs to the genus Deinococcus and represents a novel species. The name Deinococcus phoenicis was proposed after the Phoenix spacecraft, which was undergoing assembly, testing, and launch operations in the spacecraft assembly facility at the time of isolation. D. phoenicis cells exhibited higher resistance to ionizing radiation (cobalt-60; 14 kGy) than the cells of the D. radiodurans (5 kGy). Thus, it is in the best interest of NASA to thoroughly characterize this organism, which will further assess in determining the potential for forward contamination. Upon the completion of genetic and physiological characteristics of D. phoenicis, it will be added to a planetary protection database to be able to further model and predict the probability of forward contamination.

Vaishampayan, Parag A.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Extreme Ionizing-Radiation-Resistant Bacterium

There is a growing concern that desiccation and extreme radiation-resistant, non-spore-forming microorganisms associated with spacecraft surfaces can withstand space environmental conditions and subsequent proliferation on another solar body. Such forward contamination would jeopardize future life detection or sample return technologies. The prime focus of NASA s planetary protection efforts is the development of strategies for inactivating resistance-bearing micro-organisms. Eradi cation techniques can be designed to target resistance-conferring microbial populations by first identifying and understanding their physiologic and biochemical capabilities that confers its elevated tolerance (as is being studied in Deinococcus phoenicis, as a result of this description). Furthermore, hospitals, food, and government agencies frequently use biological indicators to ensure the efficacy of a wide range of radiation-based sterilization processes. Due to their resistance to a variety of perturbations, the nonspore forming D. phoenicis may be a more appropriate biological indicator than those currently in use. The high flux of cosmic rays during space travel and onto the unshielded surface of Mars poses a significant hazard to the survival of microbial life. Thus, radiation-resistant microorganisms are of particular concern that can survive extreme radiation, desiccation, and low temperatures experienced during space travel. Spore-forming bacteria, a common inhabitant of spacecraft assembly facilities, are known to tolerate these extreme conditions. Since the Viking era, spores have been utilized to assess the degree and level of microbiological contamination on spacecraft and their associated spacecraft assembly facilities. Members of the non-sporeforming bacterial community such as Deinococcus radiodurans can survive acute exposures to ionizing radiation (5 kGy), ultraviolet light (1 kJ/m2), and desiccation (years). These resistive phenotypes of Deinococcus enhance the potential for transfer, and subsequent proliferation, on another solar body such as Mars and Europa. These organisms are more likely to escape planetary protection assays, which only take into account presence of spores. Hence, presences of extreme radiation-resistant Deinococcus in the cleanroom facility where spacecraft are assembled pose a serious risk for integrity of life-detection missions. The microorganism described herein was isolated from the surfaces of the cleanroom facility in which the Phoenix Lander was assembled. The isolated bacterial strain was subjected to a comprehensive polyphasic analysis to characterize its taxonomic position. This bacterium exhibits very low 16SrRNA similarity with any other environmental isolate reported to date. Both phenotypic and phylogenetic analyses clearly indicate that this isolate belongs to the genus Deinococcus and represents a novel species. The name Deinococcus phoenicis was proposed after the Phoenix spacecraft, which was undergoing assembly, testing, and launch operations in the spacecraft assembly facility at the time of isolation. D. phoenicis cells exhibited higher resistance to ionizing radiation (cobalt-60; 14 kGy) than the cells of the D. radiodurans (5 kGy). Thus, it is in the best interest of NASA to thoroughly characterize this organism, which will further assess in determining the potential for forward contamination. Upon the completion of genetic and physiological characteristics of D. phoenicis, it will be added to a planetary protection database to be able to further model and predict the probability of forward contamination.

Vaishampayan, Parag A.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Microbial Risk Assessment

Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose-response characteristics may be affected by a potentially dysfunctional crew immune system during a mission. In addition, microbial virulence has been shown to change under certain conditions during spaceflight, further complicating dose-response characterization. An initial study of the applicability of microbial risk assessment techniques was performed using Crew Health Care System (CHeCS) operational data from the International Space Station potable water systems. The risk of infection from potable water was selected as the flight systems and microbial ecology are well defined. This initial study confirmed the feasibility of using microbial risk assessment modeling for spaceflight systems. While no immediate threat was detected, the study identified several medically significant microorganisms that could pose a health risk if uncontrolled. The study also identified several specific knowledge gaps in making a risk assessment and noted that filling these knowledge gaps is essential as the risk estimates may change by orders of magnitude depending on the answers. The current phase of the microbial risk assessment studies focuses on the dose-response relationship of specific infectious agents, focusing on Salmonella enterica Typhimurium, Pseudomonas spp., and Escherichia coli, as their evaluation will provide a better baseline for determining the overall hazard characterization. The organisms were chosen as they either have been isolated on spacecraft or have an identified route of infection during a mission. The characterization will utilize dose-response models selected either from the peer-reviewed literature and/or by using statistical approaches. Development of these modeling and risk assessment techniques will help to optimize flight requirements and to protect the safety, health, and performance of the crew.

Ott, C. M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Fault Management Algorithm Risk Assessment for the NASA Space Launch System

This paper presents the false positive (FP) and false negative (FN) risk assessment process currently being conducted for the Space Launch System (SLS) Artemis II Fault Management (FM) detection functions. The analysis scope, general assumptions and guide rules, and key modeling concepts were discussed to establish the basis of the risk assessments conducted. Initial analyses indicated a dominance in the total risk by software and firmware failures. This paper presents efforts applied to refine the software risks and the overall impact of implementing those modifications. Current analyses conducted on the detection functions implemented for the SLS Artemis II mission indicate primary risk drivers for the individual FM detection functions are flight software failures, firmware design failures, and hardware Common Cause Failures (CCFs). There still remains issues of how to account for time and redundancy in the software risk estimations.

probability risk analysis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Fault Management Algorithm Risk Assessment for the NASA Space Launch System

This presentation describes the false positive (FP) and false negative (FN) risk assessment process currently being conducted for the Space Launch System (SLS) Artemis II Fault Management (FM) detection functions. The analysis scope, general assumptions and guide rules, and key modeling concepts were discussed to establish the basis of the risk assessments conducted. Initial analyses indicated a dominance in the total risk by software and firmware failures. This paper presents efforts applied to refine the software risks and the overall impact of implementing those modifications. Current analyses conducted on the detection functions implemented for the SLS Artemis II mission indicate primary risk drivers for the individual FM detection functions are flight software failures, firmware design failures, and hardware Common Cause Failures (CCFs). There still remains issues of how to account for time and redundancy in the software risk estimations.

probability risk analysis↗

NASA NTRS1997

Remote Sensing Applications for Antrim Shale Fracture Characterization, Michigan Basin

Advanced Research International (ARI) sent seven staff members to the 1997 International Coalbed Methane Symposium, held in Tuscaloosa, Alabama from May 12-17. ARI gave a short course on risk reduction strategies, including remote fracture detection, for coalbed methane exploration and development that was attended by about 25 coalbed methane industry professionals; and presented a paper entitled 'Optimizing coalbed methane cavity completion operations with the application of a new discrete element model.' We met with many potential clients and discussed our fracture detection services. China has vast coalbed methane resources, but is still highly dependent on coal-and wood-burning. This workshop, sponsored by the United Nations, was intended to help China develop its less-polluting energy reserves. ARI is successfully finding new applications for its fracture detection services. Coalbed methane exploration became an important market in this quarter, with the inception of a joint industry/government collaboration between ARI, Texaco and DOE to use remote fracture detection to identify areas with good potential for coalbed methane production in the Ferron Coal Trend of central Utah. Geothermal energy exploration is another emerging market for ARI, where fracture detection is applied to identify pathways for groundwater recharge, movement, and the locations of potential geothermal reservoirs. Ari continued work on two industry/government collaborations to demonstrate fracture detection to potential clients. Also completed the technical content layout for multimedia CD-ROM that describes our remote fracture detection services.

Kuuskraa, Vello↗

NASA NTRS2004

Securing the User's Work Environment

High performance computing at the Numerical Aerospace Simulation Facility at NASA Ames Research Center includes C90's, J90's and Origin 2000's. Not only is it necessary to protect these systems from outside attacks, but also to provide a safe working environment on the systems. With the right tools, security anomalies in the user s work environment can be deleted and corrected. Validating proper ownership of files against user s permissions, will reduce the risk of inadvertent data compromise. The detection of extraneous directories and files hidden amongst user home directories is important for identifying potential compromises. The first runs of these utilities detected over 350,000 files with problems. With periodic scans, automated correction of problems takes only minutes. Tools for detecting these types of problems as well as their development techniques will be discussed with emphasis on consistency, portability and efficiency for both UNICOS and IRIX.

Cardo, Nicholas P.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Method and apparatus for assessing cardiovascular risk

The method for assessing risk of an adverse clinical event includes detecting a physiologic signal in the subject and determining from the physiologic signal a sequence of intervals corresponding to time intervals between heart beats. The long-time structure of fluctuations in the intervals over a time period of more than fifteen minutes is analyzed to assess risk of an adverse clinical event. In a preferred embodiment, the physiologic signal is an electrocardiogram and the time period is at least fifteen minutes. A preferred method for analyzing the long-time structure variability in the intervals includes computing the power spectrum and fitting the power spectrum to a power law dependence on frequency over a selected frequency range such as 10.sup.-4 to 10.sup.-2 Hz. Characteristics of the long-time structure fluctuations in the intervals is used to assess risk of an adverse clinical event.

Albrecht, Paul↗

NASA NTRS2012

Genetic Inventory Task Final Report

Contaminant terrestrial microbiota could profoundly impact the scientific integrity of extraterrestrial life-detection experiments. It is therefore important to know what organisms persist on spacecraft surfaces so that their presence can be eliminated or discriminated from authentic extraterrestrial biosignatures. Although there is a growing understanding of the biodiversity associated with spacecraft and cleanroom surfaces, it remains challenging to assess the risk of these microbes confounding life-detection or sample-return experiments. A key challenge is to provide a comprehensive inventory of microbes present on spacecraft surfaces. To assess the phylogenetic breadth of microorganisms on spacecraft and associated surfaces, the Genetic Inventory team used three technologies: conventional cloning techniques, PhyloChip DNA microarrays, and 454 tag-encoded pyrosequencing, together with a methodology to systematically collect, process, and archive nucleic acids. These three analysis methods yielded considerably different results: Traditional approaches provided the least comprehensive assessment of microbial diversity, while PhyloChip and pyrosequencing illuminated more diverse microbial populations. The overall results stress the importance of selecting sample collection and processing approaches based on the desired target and required level of detection. The DNA archive generated in this study can be made available to future researchers as genetic-inventory-oriented technologies further mature.

microbial diversity↗

NASA NTRS2024

A Method of Compliance for Achieving Target Collision Risk in UTM Operations

This work proposes a method of compliance to ensure that the collision risks among small unmanned aircraft systems meet the target level of safety. This method presents what is needed for a strategic conflict detection service to achieve the target level of safety when conflict between operational intents are not permitted in nominal situations. A volume-based collision risk model is first developed to calculate the UA-to-UA collision risk given any two operational intent volumes. With this collision risk model, a test strategy is then proposed to assess if a strategic conflict detection service can reduce the collision risk and meet the target level of safety. The method also specifies operational data that are required to be collected to verify if requirements on conformance are being met. Additionally, two new requirements are identified and proposed by this method beyond the current standard for strategic conflict detection. In the sensitivity analysis, three main factors contributing to the collision risk are investigated. The analysis shows that buffers should be considered in a strategic conflict detection service when deconflicting operational intents. The results also reveal that the selection of test cases plays an important role in evaluating the strategic conflict detection service, and they should be representative and sufficiently complex in evaluation tests.

Collision Risk↗

NASA NTRS2009

Detecting Airborne Mercury by Use of Palladium Chloride

Palladium chloride films have been found to be useful as alternatives to the gold films heretofore used to detect airborne elemental mercury at concentrations of the order of parts per billion (ppb). Somewhat more specifically, when suitably prepared palladium chloride films are exposed to parts-per-billion or larger concentrations of airborne mercury, their electrical resistances change by amounts large enough to be easily measurable. Because airborne mercury adversely affects health, it is desirable to be able to detect it with high sensitivity, especially in enclosed environments in which there is a risk of leakage of mercury from lamps or other equipment. The detection of mercury by use of gold films involves the formation of gold/mercury amalgam. Gold films offer adequate sensitivity for detection of airborne mercury and could easily be integrated into an electronic-nose system designed to operate in the temperature range of 23 to 28 C. Unfortunately, in order to regenerate a gold-film mercury sensor, one must heat it to a temperature of 200 C for several minutes in clean flowing air. In preparation for an experiment to demonstrate the present sensor concept, palladium chloride was deposited from an aqueous solution onto sets of gold electrodes and sintered in air to form a film. Then while using the gold electrodes to measure the electrical resistance of the films, the films were exposed, at a temperature of 25 C, to humidified air containing mercury at various concentrations from 0 to 35 ppb (see figure). The results of this and other experiments have been interpreted as signifying that sensors of this type can detect mercury in room-temperature air at concentrations of at least 2.5 ppb and can readily be regenerated at temperatures <40 C.

Ryan, Margaret↗

NASA NTRS2017

Evaluation of the Simple Safe Site Selection (S4) Hazard Detection Algorithm Using Helicopter Field Test Data

Small scale terrain hazards, such as rocks, slopes, and craters, can pose significant risk to landing spacecraft and rover or payload deployment. Onboard Hazard Detection and Avoidance (HDA) systems scan and analyze the landing area for these hazards in real time during descent, and divert the spacecraft to the safest touchdown site. The computationally efficient Simple Safe Site Selection (S4) algorithm combined with a flash LIDAR is an HDA system geared towards small robotic spacecraft. Rather than creating and analyzing a digital elevation map (DEM) from potentially many overlapping range images, S4 operates directly on a single flash LIDAR image. Extending prior work that has analyzed S4 performance for Mars landing using extensive simulations, this paper evaluates S4 performance using actual flash LIDAR images of an artificial hazard field acquired during a 2014 helicopter field test in Death Valley, CA. In particular, we describe LIDAR characterization and calibration, creation of ground truth elevation and safety maps, creation of ground truth sensor poses, actual S4 algorithm processing, and performance analysis. The results show that the safety cost images produced by S4 are remarkably close to the ground truth safety map (computed offline by an HDA algorithm developed under the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance (ALHAT) project) at significantly reduced computational cost, confirming S4 as a viable candidate algorithm for onboard spacecraft HDA.

Luna, Michael E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Method of Compliance for Achieving Target Collision Risk in UTM Operations

This work proposes a method of compliance to ensure that the collision risks among small unmanned aircraft systems meet the target level of safety. This method presents what is needed for a strategic conflict detection service to achieve the target level of safety when conflict between operational intents are not permitted in nominal situations. A volume-based collision risk model is first developed to calculate the UA-to-UA collision risk given any two operational intent volumes. With this collision risk model, a test strategy is then proposed to assess if a strategic conflict detection service can reduce the collision risk and meet the target level of safety. The method also specifies operational data that are required to be collected to verify if requirements on conformance are being met. Additionally, two new requirements are identified and proposed by this method beyond the current standard for strategic conflict detection. In the sensitivity analysis, three main factors contributing to the collision risk are investigated. The analysis shows that buffers should be considered in a strategic conflict detection service when deconflicting operational intents. The results also reveal that the selection of test cases plays an important role in evaluating the strategic conflict detection service, and they should be representative and sufficiently complex in evaluation tests.

UTM↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Method of Compliance for Achieving Target Collision Risk in UTM Operations

This work proposes a method of compliance to ensure that the collision risks among small unmanned aircraft systems meet the target level of safety. This method presents what is needed for a strategic conflict detection service to achieve the target level of safety when conflict between operational intents are not permitted in nominal situations. A volume-based collision risk model is first developed to calculate the UA-to-UA collision risk given any two operational intent volumes. With this collision risk model, a test strategy is then proposed to assess if a strategic conflict detection service can reduce the collision risk and meet the target level of safety. The method also specifies operational data that are required to be collected to verify if requirements on conformance are being met. Additionally, two new requirements are identified and proposed by this method beyond the current standard for strategic conflict detection. In the sensitivity analysis, three main factors contributing to the collision risk are investigated. The analysis shows that buffers should be considered in a strategic conflict detection service when deconflicting operational intents. The results also reveal that the selection of test cases plays an important role in evaluating the strategic conflict detection service, and they should be representative and sufficiently complex in evaluation tests.

UTM, Method of Compliance, collision risk↗

NASA NTRS2022

A validation of satellite derived cyanobacteria detections with state reported events and recreation advisories across U.S. lakes

Cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms (cyanoHABs) negatively affect ecological, human, and animal health. Traditional methods of validating satellite algorithms with data from water samples are often inhibited by the expense of quantifying cyanobacteria indicators in the field and the lack of public data. However, state recreation advisories and other recorded events of cyanoHAB occurrence reported by local authorities can serve as an independent and publicly available dataset for validation. State recreation advisories were defined as a period delimited by a start and end date where a warning was issued due to detections of cyanoHABs over a state’s risk threshold. State reported events were defined as any event that was documented with a single date related to cyanoHABs. This study examined the presence-absence agreement between 160 state reported cyanoHAB advisories and 1,343 events and cyanobacteria biomass estimated by a satellite algorithm called the Cyanobacteria Index (CI(cyano)). The true positive rate of agreement with state recreation advisories was 69% and 60% with state reported events. CI(cyano) detected a reduction or absence in cyanobacteria after 76% of the recreation advisories ended. CI(cyano) was used to quantify the magnitude, spatial extent, and temporal frequency of cyanoHABs; each of these three metrics were greater (r > 0.2) during state recreation advisories compared to non-advisory times with effect sizes ranging from small to large. This is the first study to quantitatively evaluate satellite algorithm performance for detecting cyanoHABs with state reported events and advisories and supports informed management decisions with satellite technologies that complement traditional field observations.

remote sensing↗