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NASA NTRS2016

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account risks attributable to manufacturing, assembly, and process controls. These sources often dominate component level reliability or risk of failure probability. While consequences of failure is often understood in assessing risk, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence will likely underestimate the risk. Managers and decision makers often use the probability of occurrence in determining whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. Due to the absence of system level test and operational data inherent in aerospace applications, the actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be appropriately characterized for decision making purposes. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

Hatfield, Glen S.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Performance Risk Model Validation with Operationally Relevant Tasks

Human Research Program aims to develop methods to support astronauts’ health and productivity during spaceflight. The Crew Health and Performance Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CHP-PRA) team uses powerful computational methods to predict mission risk in both domains: medical and performance. Here, we show how CHP-PRA uses the Performance Risk Model (PRisM) to quantify the performance risk and show an application of the model on operationally relevant tasks. There are various metrics adopted across performance researchers that PRisM can accommodate. For data analysis, interpretation, and integration, we use a method of unifying data from multiple sources by converting each to a single metric. We consult subject matter experts prior to integrating the converted data into PRisM. The method we use is inspired by the Cooper-Harper rating scale [1]. Using this unified metric, we can easily combine data from various tests and lab groups. We explain our conversion method in detail and show how it pertains to the process of testing and validation of PRisM on operational tasks. We conducted an initial validation in collaboration with the Behavioral Health and Performance (BHP) lab. We test PRisM using data on their operationally relevant task ROBoT-r, a track-and-capture task for grappling incoming resupply vehicles [2]. Several other labs at NASA Johnson Space Center worked together to design 7 Functional Task Tests (FTTs) in pursuit of simulating the tasks required after landing on a planetary surface and after return to Earth [3]. Here we use the results from both ROBoT-r and the 7 FTTs and compare their experiment data to PRisM’s computational output to demonstrate how PRisM can support operations by predicting crew performance on future missions.

performance modeling↗
NASA NTRS2019

Scaling Evaluation of Ice-Crystal Icing on a Modern Turbofan Engine in PSL Using the COMDES-MELT Code

This paper presents preliminary ice-crystal icing (ICI) altitude scaling evaluation results of a Honeywell Uncertified Research Engine (HURE) that was tested in the NASA Glenn Research Center Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) during January of 2018. This engine geometry features a hidden core design to keep the core less exposed. The engine was fitted with internal video cameras to observe various ice buildup processes at multiple selected locations within the engine core flow path covering the fan stator, the splitter-lip/shroud/strut, and the high pressure compressor (HPC) variable inlet guide vane (IGV) regions. The potential ice accretion risk was pre-determined to occur by using NASA’s in-house 1D Engine Icing Risk assessment code, COMDES-MELT. The code was successful in predicting the risk of ice accretion in adiabatic regions like the fan-stator of the HURE at specific engine operating points. However at several operating points during the test, liquid water was observed running along the shroud toward the variable IGV of the HPC regions with an air temperature well below freezing, thus no particle melting could have occurred due to heating from the air alone. It was reasoned that other sources of heat were present in that region. To account for these heat sources the inlet total temperature was adjusted to give a wet bulb temperature of 24 F below the standard minimum wet bulb temperature of 492 R to allow ice to accrete in the splitter-lip/shroud/strut region, which was determined from a reference case where hard ice was observed in that region. With that adjustment the COMDES-MELT code was successful in providing operating points where there was a risk of ice accretion during the test campaign. In addition to calculating possible conditions at different selected lower altitudes, simulations were run to determine potential inlet conditions that could lead to ice-crystal accretion along the prescribed stations where the cameras were available. From there, scaled test conditions were determined by best matching the following three icing related parameters of the reference condition: (1) the local air total wet bulb temperature, (2) the local ice crystal cloud melt ratio and (3) the engine fan face ice/water to air mass flux ratio of the ice crystal cloud. Instantaneous images taken from the time-lapsed movies of ice buildup were used along with the relevant thermodynamic data of air, water vapor and local icing condition to help evaluate how closely the proposed altitude scaling method could be used in ground based test facility to duplicate selected reference ICI features observed at specific location inside this engine at different scale altitudes. Discussions on observed limitation for engine icing scaling application from this test campaign and needed improvement are provided. A scaling test procedure to help identify potential ICI risk conditions and possible ice accretion locations of a new turbofan engine is evaluated in PSL.

Engine Testing in PSL↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis and Prediction of VFR Vs IFR Traffic Behavior to Support Uncrewed Aircraft Flight Operations at Regional Airports

Uncrewed Aircraft flight operations at a regional airport will be affected by the uncertainty in the Visual Flight Rules traffic around. This paper analyzes Visual Flight Rules traffic behavior, compares it with Instrument Flight Rules traffic and develops traffic prediction methods to support uncrewed aircraft flight operations. The spatio-temporal distribution of traffic operating under Visual Flight Rules and Instrument Flight Rules was analyzed from one month of historical track data around Fort Worth Alliance airport as a representative regional airport. The traffic behavior was visualized as occupancy maps generated at different altitudes. The Instrument Flight Rules traffic was concentrated in fewer regions of the airspace along structured routes where the risk of interacting with one or more flights reached close to fifty percent in some areas. Visual Flight Rules traffic was spread over more regions, mostly segregated from the Instrument Flight Rules regions, and the risk of interaction was lower reaching up to twenty-five percent on average over the month in some regions. The interaction risk was predicted using predictive occupancy maps over multiple time horizons and conditioned on time and partial observation of traffic in the vicinity. The month-to-month predictability of Visual Flight Rules risk was lower than that of the Instrument Flight Rules traffic, consistently over all the conditions analyzed. However, the prediction and its accuracy were demonstrated to be sensitive to the conditions used. The predictive models generated can be used to support both strategic planning and in-flight decision-making by uncrewed aircraft during flight operations while maintaining an acceptable risk of interacting with other traffic.

VFR↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis and Prediction of VFR Vs IFR Traffic Behavior to Support Uncrewed Aircraft Flight Operations at Regional Airports

Uncrewed Aircraft flight operations at a regional airport will be affected by the uncertainty in the Visual Flight Rules traffic around. This paper analyzes Visual Flight Rules traffic behavior, compares it with Instrument Flight Rules traffic and develops traffic prediction methods to support uncrewed aircraft flight operations. The spatio-temporal distribution of traffic operating under Visual Flight Rules and Instrument Flight Rules was analyzed from one month of historical track data around Fort Worth Alliance airport as a representative regional airport. The traffic behavior was visualized as occupancy maps generated at different altitudes. The Instrument Flight Rules traffic was concentrated in fewer regions of the airspace along structured routes where the risk of interacting with one or more flights reached close to fifty percent in some areas. Visual Flight Rules traffic was spread over more regions, mostly segregated from the Instrument Flight Rules regions, and the risk of interaction was lower reaching up to twenty-five percent on average over the month in some regions. The interaction risk was predicted using predictive occupancy maps over multiple time horizons and conditioned on time and partial observation of traffic in the vicinity. The month-to-month predictability of Visual Flight Rules risk was lower than that of the Instrument Flight Rules traffic, consistently over all the conditions analyzed. However, the prediction and its accuracy were demonstrated to be sensitive to the conditions used. The predictive models generated can be used to support both strategic planning and in-flight decision-making by uncrewed aircraft during flight operations while maintaining an acceptable risk of interacting with other traffic.

VFR↗
NASA NTRS2017

Modeling Oxygen Prebreathe Protocols for Exploration Extravehicular Activities Using Variable Pressure Suits

Exploration missions are expected to use variable pressure extravehicular activity (EVA) spacesuits as well as a spacecraft "exploration atmosphere" of 56.5 kPa (8.2 psia), 34% O2, both of which provide the possibility of reducing the oxygen prebreathe times necessary to reduce decompression sickness (DCS) risk. Previous modeling work predicted 8.4% DCS risk for an EVA beginning at the exploration atmosphere, followed by 15 minutes of in-suit O2 prebreathe, and 6 hours of EVA at 29.6 kPa (4.3 psia). In this study we model notional prebreathe protocols for a variable pressure suit where the exploration atmosphere is unavailable.

Abercromby, Andrew F. J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

End-To-End Risk Assesment: From Genes and Protein to Acceptable Radiation Risks for Mars Exploration

The human exploration of Mars will impose unavoidable health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and possibly solar particle events (SPE). It is the goal of NASA's Space Radiation Health Program to develop the capability to predict health risks with significant accuracy to ensure that risks are well below acceptable levels and to allow for mitigation approaches to be effective at reasonable costs. End-to-End risk assessment is the approach being followed to understand proton and heavy ion damage at the molecular, cellular, and tissue levels in order to predict the probability of the major health risk including cancer, neurological disorders, hereditary effects, cataracts, and acute radiation sickness and to develop countermeasures for mitigating risks.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Prediction of Calcium Oxalate Stone Risk with Interventions

Introduction Mitigations intended to reduce bone mineral loss in-flight also influence the level of renal stone risk to astronauts. Extending a recent study completed by our group [1], we investigate the likely influence of combined fluid intake and Ca excretion mitigation strategies. Methods A computational biochemistry model representing CaOx crystal precipitation, growth, and agglomeration [2] is combined with a probabilistic analysis to predict the in-flight CaOx renal stone incidence risk ratio (IRR) relative to pre-flight values using 1517 astronaut 24-hour urine chemistries. The output of this simulation is used to assess the combined impact of controlling fluid intake and Ca excretion on maintaining IRR < 1.2 for > 95% of the population, a threshold determined from initial analysis of the model output compared to referent populations [1]. Results and Conclusions Figure 1 illustrates the simulated in-flight astronaut population (n=40000) with CaOx IRR > 1.2. The red lines indicate the known clinical risk boundary of each factor, and the white box is considered the area of high combined clinical risk. The simulation and identified risk threshold conform well to the expected clinical risk boundaries. The results, assuming insensible water losses equal or exceed 0.7 L/day, imply mitigations achieve risks similar to pre-flight levels when either Ca < 150 mg/day or fluid volume intake > 3.2 L/day individually, or combined Ca < 200 and fluid volume intake > 2.5 L/day. We continue to investigate similar compounded effects and look to apprise engineering trades by informing relative risk changes during mission design. References [1] D. A. Goodenow-Messman, S. A. Gokoglu, M. Kassemi, and J. Myers, Jerry G., “Characterization of Astronaut CaOx Renal Stone Incidence Rates to Quantify In-flight and Post-flight Relative Risk,” npj Microgravity, in review, 2021. [2] M. Kassemi and D. Thompson, “Prediction of renal crystalline size distributions in space using a PBE analytic model. 1. Effect of microgravity-induced biochemical alterations,” Am. J. Physiol. Physiol., vol. 311, no. 3, pp. F520–F530, Sep. 2016, doi: 10.1152/ajprenal.00401.2015.

Debra A Goodenow↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantifying radiation quality for space relevant radiation types: Fitting excess risk models to outbred mice data

Accurately quantifying the differences in radiation quality between space and terrestrial environments is important for predicting health risks for astronauts.Recently, Edmundson et al. 2020[1] provided valuable new results from out-bred mice linking tumor induction and genetic background aer exposure to low and high-LET radiation. The goal of the current study is to more rigorously estimate a relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factor by leveraging the solid tumor data from Edmundson et al. 2020. Excess relative risk (ERR) models and excess absolute risk (EAR) models were fit using Poisson regression similar to the models that the Radiation Effects Research Foundation uses to fit atomic bomb survivor data. Linear ERR and EAR slopes were simulated usingBayesian analyses, and RBE values were calculated from the ratio of the heavy ion linear slope to the gamma linear slope using the full posterior distribution.

Lori J. Chappell↗
NASA NTRS2008

Overview of the NASA Subsonic Rotary Wing Aeronautics Research Program in Rotorcraft Crashworthiness

This paper provides an overview of rotorcraft crashworthiness research being conducted at NASA Langley Research Center under sponsorship of the Subsonic Rotary Wing (SRW) Aeronautics Program. The research is focused in two areas: development of an externally deployable energy attenuating concept and improved prediction of rotorcraft crashworthiness. The deployable energy absorber (DEA) is a composite honeycomb structure, with a unique flexible hinge design that allows the honeycomb to be packaged and remain flat until needed for deployment. The capabilities of the DEA have been demonstrated through component crush tests and vertical drop tests of a retrofitted fuselage section onto different surfaces or terrain. The research on improved prediction of rotorcraft crashworthiness is focused in several areas including simulating occupant responses and injury risk assessment, predicting multi-terrain impact, and utilizing probabilistic analysis methods. A final task is to perform a system-integrated simulation of a full-scale helicopter crash test onto a rigid surface. A brief description of each research task is provided along with a summary of recent accomplishments.

Jackson, Karen E.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Overview of the NASA Subsonic Rotary Wing Aeronautics Research Program in Rotorcraft Crashworthiness

This paper provides an overview of rotorcraft crashworthiness research being conducted at NASA Langley Research Center under sponsorship of the Subsonic Rotary Wing (SRW) Aeronautics Program. The research is focused in two areas: development of an externally deployable energy attenuating concept and improved prediction of rotorcraft crashworthiness. The deployable energy absorber (DEA) is a composite honeycomb structure, with a unique flexible hinge design that allows the honeycomb to be packaged and remain flat until needed for deployment. The capabilities of the DEA have been demonstrated through component crush tests and vertical drop tests of a retrofitted fuselage section onto different surfaces or terrain. The research on improved prediction of rotorcraft crashworthiness is focused in several areas including simulating occupant responses and injury risk assessment, predicting multi-terrain impact, and utilizing probabilistic analysis methods. A final task is to perform a system-integrated simulation of a full-scale helicopter crash test onto a rigid surface. A brief description of each research task is provided along with a summary of recent accomplishments.

Jackson, Karen E.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Space Program Advocacy Can Distort Project Management and Damage Systems Engineering

Over-optimistic project advocacy often causes exaggerated performance claims and underestimated costs and schedules. This can distort project management and damage systems engineering. NASA projects such as the space shuttle and Hubble are extreme examples. NASA's spectacular success in the Apollo moon landings seems to have produced overconfidence and carelessness, but also to have gained tolerance for unrealistic claims and forgiveness when they were proven wrong. Apollo risk analysis predicted many astronaut fatalities. This was believed but was potentially damaging to the Apollo program, so risk analysis was discontinued. The moon landings beat bad odds because Apollo obsessively reduced risk. Its success seemed to confirm that risk analysis was unreasonably pessimistic and that risk could be overcome by good engineering. This understanding caused risk to be increased during space shuttle engineering and led to an unnecessarily dangerous approach. The shuttle design placed a fragile spacecraft next to the fuel tanks and failed to provide crew escape or launch abort. These design decisions directly caused the Challenger and Columbia tragedies. After Challenger, risk analysis was re-established. The current rocket and capsule design does consider risk and the result strongly resembles Apollo. Apollo advocacy led NASA to abandon risk analysis and this was ultimate cause of the Shuttle tragedies. Excessive advocacy that distorts risk, cost, and schedule could be prevented in an ideal organization that used systems engineering to make rational and fair decisions. However, most real organizations accommodate human and group needs using informal methods often described as "the system." Humans have biases, use innate decision making heuristics, instinctively rely on "gut feel," and establish deviant groups through groupthink. Expecting organizations to become totally rational is impractical, but specific problems such as neglecting risk and underestimating cost and schedule can be directly challenged with some hope of success.

Jones, Harry W.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Using DNA Damage to Investigate the Individual Variability of Human Sensitivity to Ionizing Radiation

High-LET ionizing radiation is a major occupational health hazard for astronauts, but risk assessment remains elusive due to limited epidemiological data. Identifying genetic factors modulating the individual radiation response may be the most effective strategy to provide individualized risk management for long-duration high-radiation missions. We have started tackling the challenge of predicting individual risks by identifying human genetic loci associated with various radiation sensitivity phenotypes in primary blood mononuclear cells from a relatively large healthy human cohort. To date, we have performed the isolation of PBMCs from 768 subjects of the same ethnicity, and irradiated PBMCs from 576 subjects with 1 and 3 particles/100µm2 of 600 MeV/n 56Fe, 350 MeV/n 40Ar and 350 MeV/n 28Si ions. The phenotypes of interest were: number of radiation-induced foci (or RIFs), CellROX oxidative stress responses and cell death, at 4h and 24h following irradiation. We have observed a significant inter-individual variability at 0 Gy between the 576 studied subjects, with a mean fold difference between the 10% lowest and highest responders of 5.6 of RIFs/cell, 7.9 in mean CellRox intensity, and 9.3 in percentage of dead cells. In order to better assess genetic factors influencing DNA repair, we used a metric previously introduced by our group to sort out radiation sensitivity phenotypes in mice: i.e. the ratio of the first to the second slope of RIFs/cell (between 0 and 1, and between 1 and 3 particle/100µm2). Preliminary data on 192 individuals showed a distribution of low-dose responders (ratio > 1) to high-dose responders (ratio < 1) at 4h of 12%, 55% and 52% respectively for Fe, Ar and Si. The average value for the first and the second slopes was very similar for the two lowest LET (0.10 [-0.26;0.58] and 0.09 [-0.45;0.41] for Ar, 0.07 [-0.27;0.38] and 0.08 [-0.19;0.42] for Si), indicating a linear dose response across both fluence. Fe showed clear saturation for the highest dose with a slope of -0.09 [-0.86;1.51] against 0.68 [-2.21;2.20] for the low dose range, which probably reflects that many PBMCs are beyond repair at the high dose. Note that other significances were found for additional factors such as BMI and age whereas none were found for sex. GWAS will be performed on all phenotypes upon completion of measurements.

Pariset, E.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Using DNA Damage to Investigate the Individual Variability of Human Sensitivity to Ionizing Radiation

High-LET ionizing radiation is a major occupational health hazard for astronauts, but risk assessment remains elusive due to limited epidemiological data. Identifying genetic factors modulating the individual radiation response may be the most effective strategy to provide individualized risk management for long-duration high-radiation missions. We have started tackling the challenge of predicting individual risks by identifying human genetic loci associated with various radiation sensitivity phenotypes in primary blood mononuclear cells from a relatively large healthy human cohort. To date, we have performed the isolation of PBMCs from 768 subjects of the same ethnicity, and irradiated PBMCs from 576 subjects with 1 and 3 particles/100µm2 of 600 MeV/n 56Fe, 350 MeV/n 40Ar and 350 MeV/n 28Si ions. The phenotypes of interest were: number of radiation-induced foci (or RIFs), CellROX oxidative stress responses and cell death, at 4h and 24h following irradiation. We have observed a significant inter-individual variability at 0 Gy between the 576 studied subjects, with a mean fold difference between the 10% lowest and highest responders of 5.6 of RIFs/cell, 7.9 in mean CellRox intensity, and 9.3 in percentage of dead cells. In order to better assess genetic factors influencing DNA repair, we used a metric previously introduced by our group to sort out radiation sensitivity phenotypes in mice: i.e. the ratio of the first to the second slope of RIFs/cell (between 0 and 1, and between 1 and 3 particle/100µm2). Preliminary data on 192 individuals showed a distribution of ?low-dose responders? (ratio > 1) to ?high-dose responders? (ratio < 1) at 4h of 12%, 55% and 52% respectively for Fe, Ar and Si. The average value for the first and the second slopes was very similar for the two lowest LET (0.10 [-0.26;0.58] and 0.09 [-0.45;0.41] for Ar, 0.07 [-0.27;0.38] and 0.08 [-0.19;0.42] for Si), indicating a linear dose response across both fluence. Fe showed clear saturation for the highest dose with a slope of -0.09 [-0.86;1.51] against 0.68 [-2.21;2.20] for the low dose range, which probably reflects that many PBMCs are beyond repair at the high dose. Note that other significances were found for additional factors ? such as BMI and age ? whereas none were found for sex. GWAS will be performed on all phenotypes upon completion of measurements.

Pariset, E.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Program Promotion Can Distort Space Systems Engineering and Deny Risk

NASA's spectacular success in the Apollo moon landings was achieved against the odds by an obsessive dedication to reducing the great risk. But risk analysis predicted so many astronaut fatalities that it was thought to be unreasonably pessimistic and potentially damaging to the Apollo program. Risk analysis was discontinued, risk was neglected in space shuttle engineering, and so the space shuttle design was unnecessarily dangerous. Since the Apollo era it has been understood that long human space missions would recycle oxygen and water to avoid the very high launch cost of directly supplying them. The development of recycling systems was justified by the need to increase material closure and reduce launch mass. When it was recognized that increasing closure leads to rapidly diminishing returns, the program goal was changed to reducing launch mass and reliability, cost, and risk were considered irrelevant. Systems engineering and especially the discouraging problems of risk and cost have been deliberately ignored because they detract from program promotion, with unfortunate results. Current human launch system design does account for risk and the result strongly resembles Apollo. Current life support design continues to assume recycling, even though the recent great reduction in launch cost now allows direct supply of oxygen and water with significantly better quality, reliability, cost, and risk.

Advocacy↗
NASA NTRS2021

Leveraging NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive for Assessing Fire Susceptibility and Potential Impacts over Australia and California

Wildfires are a major concern around the globe because of the immediate impact they have on people's lives, local ecosystems, and the environment. Soil moisture is one of the most important factors that influences wildfire occurrences and spread. However, it is also one of the most challenging hydrological variables to measure routinely and accurately. Therefore, soil moisture is significantly underutilized in operational wildfire risk applications. Thus, the aim here is to use a well-established operational soil moisture product to isolate the soil moisture-fire relationship and assess the utility of using soil moisture as a leading indicator of potential fire risk. We evaluated the value of remotely-sensed soil moisture observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) sensor for monitoring and predicting fire risk in Australia and California. We quantified the relationship between observed fire activity and soil moisture conditions and analyzed the soil moisture conditions for two extreme fire events. Our findings show that fire activity is strongly associated with soil moisture anomalies. Lagged correlation analysis demonstrated that a remote-sensing based soil moisture product could predict fire activity with a 1-2 month lead-time. Soil moisture anomalies consistently decreased in the months preceding fire occurrence, often from normal to drier conditions, according to a spatiotemporal analysis of soil moisture in two extreme fire events. Overall, our findings indicate that soil moisture conditions prior to large wildfires can aid in their prediction and operational satellite-based soil moisture products such as the one used here have real value for supporting wildfire susceptibility and impacts.

Nazmus Sazib↗
NASA NTRS1992

Pre-flight risk assessment in Emergency Medical Service (EMS) helicopters

The Emergency Medical Service (EMS) industry has been the subject of several television and newspaper articles (Harvey and Jensen, 1987) which emphasized the negative aspects, (e.g., fatalities and high accident rates), rather than the life saving services performed. Until recently, the accident rate of the EMS industry has been five times as high as that of other civil helicopters. This high accident rate has been coupled with the dramatic rise in the number of programs. The industry has built from a single service at its inception in 1972, to over 180 in 1987 (Spray, 1987), to the point that 93 percent of the contiguous U.S. is now covered by some type of EMS service. These factors prompted the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) to study the accidents that occurred between May 11, 1978 and December 3, 1986 (NTSB, 1988). The NTSB report concluded that 'Sound pilot judgment is central to safe flight operations.' They further stated that '... factors unique to EMS helicopter operations--such as the influence of the mission itself, program competition, and EMS program management perspectives--can drastically influence pilot judgment during the EMS mission.' One of the most difficult decisions that a pilot must make is whether to accept or decline a mission. A pre-flight risk assessment system (SAFE) was developed at NASA-Ames Research Center for civil EMS operations to aid pilots in making this decision objectively. The ability of the SAFE system to predict mission risk profiles was tested at an EMS facility. The results of this field study demonstrated that the usefulness of SAFE was highly dependent on the type of mission flown. SAFE is now being modified so that it can 'learn' with each mission flown. For example, after flying a mission to a particular site, an EMS pilot would input information about this mission into the system, such as new buildings, wires, or approach procedures. Then, the next time a pilot flew a similar mission or one to the same area, this additional information would be taken into account in computing a risk assessment.

Shively, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Using an Ultrasonic Instrument to Size Extravascular Bubbles

In an ongoing development project, microscopic bubbles in extravascular tissue in a human body will be detected by use of an enhanced version of the apparatus described in Ultrasonic Bubble- Sizing Instrument (MSC-22980), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 24, No. 10 (October 2000), page 62. To recapitulate: The physical basis of the instrument is the use of ultrasound to excite and measure the resonant behavior (oscillatory expansion and contraction) of bubbles. The resonant behavior is a function of the bubble diameter; the instrument exploits the diameter dependence of the resonance frequency and the general nonlinearity of the ultrasonic response of bubbles to detect bubbles and potentially measure their diameters. In the cited prior article, the application given most prominent mention was the measurement of gaseous emboli (essentially, gas bubbles in blood vessels) that cause decompression sickness and complications associated with cardiopulmonary surgery. According to the present proposal, the instrument capabilities would be extended to measure extravascular bubbles with diameters in the approximate range of 1 to 30 m. The proposed use of the instrument could contribute further to the understanding and prevention of decompression sickness: There is evidence that suggests that prebreathing oxygen greatly reduces the risk of decompression sickness by reducing the number of microscopic extravascular bubbles. By using the ultrasonic bubble-sizing instrument to detect and/or measure the sizes of such bubbles, it might be possible to predict the risk of decompression sickness. The instrument also has potential as a tool to guide the oxygen-prebreathing schedules of astronauts; high-altitude aviators; individuals who undertake high-altitude, low-opening (HALO) parachute jumps; and others at risk of decompression sickness. For example, an individual at serious risk of decompression sickness because of high concentrations of extravascular microscopic bubbles could be given a warning to continue to prebreathe oxygen until it was safe to decompress.

Magari, Patrick J.↗