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At least 109 records · Page 6

Coupled wave-current modeling for hydrodynamic load analysis of macroalgae cultivation farms

Large-scale cultivation of macroalgae is one of the most promising biofuel sources that could reduce our consumption of fossil fuels and would be particularly economically competitive when grown for the co-production of additional goods such as food and textiles. Current production of biofuel from algal biomass is limited by labor costs and lack of data on potential impacts of cultivation and harvesting on marine and coastal environments as well as a comprehensive characterization of the impact of environmental conditions on macroalgal feedstock and their bioproduct and biofuel yield and quality. Awarded by the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) Macroalgae Research Inspiring Novel Energy Resources (MARINER) program, which seeks to enable the U.S. as a global leader in the production of marine biomass, the Marine Biological Laboratory (MBL) has been developing a test system for tropical seaweed cultivation in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean. An integral step in designing macroalgae cultivation farms is to adequately characterize the hydrodynamic climate at potential growth sites. In regions like the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, which are highly exposed to tropical cyclones, it is critical to not only consider the day-to-day hydrodynamic conditions but to also assess the risk of extreme sea states to ensure the survivability of future macroalgae farms. Under these considerations, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is providing modeling support for MBL to inform the design and siting of the farm systems that have been proposed for their ARPA-E MARINER project. This report describes the development of a high-resolution coupled storm surge and wave model to simulate the hydrodynamics and wave climate at proposed macroalgae cultivation sites selected by MBL in Florida and Puerto Rico. Model results, including model validation, water level, current distributions, and sea states, are discussed for both selected sites in Florida and Puerto Rico coast. These simulations provide an accurate insight into the hydrodynamic conditions that a macroalgae farm is likely to experience during its operational lifetime, including current information to support fine-scale hydrodynamic load modeling, risk analysis and system design.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Insights into the year-round vertical distribution of chlorophyll concentration in high-latitude Arctic Ocean: implications for primary production

Climate-induced rapid changes in the Arctic Ocean, such as decreasing sea ice extent and increasing water temperature, are altering nutrient and light availability, profoundly impacting primary producer growth. However, access to the high-latitude Arctic Ocean is limited, and satellite data are primarily available only during summer, making continuous in-situ data collection challenging. We collected year-round chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration data in high-latitude regions using a mooring system and performed a comparative analysis with reanalysis data. Unlike previous satellite-based studies, which typically rely on surface measurements, we used the annual vertical distribution of Chl-a. These data were applied to the vertically generalized production model to accurately estimate annual primary production. The moored Chl-a concentration data showed that phytoplankton exhibited a typical subsurface chlorophyll maximum (SCM) layer as sea ice retreated in June. Contrary to the gradually deepening SCM distribution predicted by model-based reanalysis data, the SCM layer persisted for approximately 4 months. This indicates that light and nutrient conditions within the SCM layer remained stable, sustaining continuous phytoplankton growth. Annual primary production, reflecting this vertical distribution of Chl-a concentration, was 6.85 gC m −2 yr −1 . This exceeded satellite-based estimates by at least two-fold, highlighting the significant underestimation of primary production by satellite approaches. Estimating primary production while accounting for the vertical distribution of phytoplankton and light is essential for improving ecological models to better understand carbon cycle and food web changes in the Arctic Ocean, with important implications for climate change predictions.

Arctic Ocean↗

Considering coasts: Adapting terrestrial models to characterize coastal wetland ecosystems

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) simulates fully coupled processes and interactions among water, energy, carbon and nutrient cycles. E3SM connects vegetation and soil dynamics through nutrient uptake, plant production, litterfall and decomposition as a function of abiotic parameters (e.g. temperature and moisture). However, E3SM is designed to characterize terrestrial ecosystems and connects land and open ocean systems using a single streamflow transport term, ignoring the complex dynamics of energy, water, carbon, and nutrients in coastal systems. The goals of our project were to: (1) Parameterize a point version of E3SM to capture coastal wetland habitats and (2) Determine marsh community responses to increased temperature and elevated CO 2 . We adapted a version of the E3SM land model, previously configured to represent forested bog hydrology to a coastal ecosystem using datasets from field experiments conducted at the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center's Global Change Research Wetland (GCReW). Tidal forcing in a marsh environment was simulated using a two-column system in which the columns are connected by lateral hydrologic flows. One column simulates interactions between vegetation and soil while a second column simulates variation in water level (both tidal and sea level rise). The updated model captures many aspects of the field experiments, showing that plant community responses to environmental change are non-linear, non-additive and different between plant types. Elevated CO 2 treatments increased C 3 plant biomass more than C 4 (33% vs 17%). Temperature exacerbated CO 2 responses in C 3 plants (0 °C: 26%, 5.1 °C: 56%). We were more successful at characterizing C 3 than C 4 responses and simulating above rather than belowground biomass production. Furthermore, the next steps will include updates to key physiological parameters such as root:shoot carbon allocation and the addition of mechanistic feedbacks between vegetation and biogeochemical processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Zonal‐Scale of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and Its Propagation Speed on the Interannual Time‐Scale

Abstract While no significant long‐term trend in the propagation speed of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) in boreal winter is found during the past decades, pronounced year‐to‐year variability of the MJO phase speed is illustrated by analyzing a century‐long record data set. During the winters when fast MJO propagation is observed, the MJO exhibits a much larger zonal‐scale than that during the winters with slow propagation. A broader extension in MJO circulation effectively induces stronger and broader lower‐tropospheric moistening (drying) to the east (west) of MJO through horizontal moisture advection, prompting a faster MJO phase speed. The larger MJO zonal‐scale during the fast MJO propagation winters is coincident with anomalously increased background sea surface temperatures and precipitable water over both the western Indian Ocean and central/eastern Pacific, reminiscent of an expansion of the Indo‐Pacific warm pool. A fundamental question remains open regarding the key processes that determine the zonal‐scale of MJO organization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Snowfall and snow accumulation during the MOSAiC winter and spring seasons

Data from the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition allowed us to investigate the temporal dynamics of snowfall, snow accumulation and erosion in great detail for almost the whole accumulation season (November 2019 to May 2020). We computed cumulative snow water equivalent (SWE) over the sea ice based on snow depth and density retrievals from a SnowMicroPen and approximately weekly measured snow depths along fixed transect paths. We used the derived SWE from the snow cover to compare with precipitation sensors installed during MOSAiC. The data were also compared with ERA5 reanalysis snowfall rates for the drift track. We found an accumulated snow mass of 38 mm SWE between the end of October 2019 and end of April 2020. The initial SWE over first-year ice relative to second-year ice increased from 50 % to 90 % by end of the investigation period. Further, we found that the Vaisala Present Weather Detector 22, an optical precipitation sensor, and installed on a railing on the top deck of research vessel Polarstern, was least affected by blowing snow and showed good agreements with SWE retrievals along the transect. On the contrary, the OTT Pluvio 2 pluviometer and the OTT Parsivel 2 laser disdrometer were largely affected by wind and blowing snow, leading to too high measured precipitation rates. These are largely reduced when eliminating drifting snow periods in the comparison. ERA5 reveals good timing of the snowfall events and good agreement with ground measurements with an overestimation tendency. Retrieved snowfall from the ship-based K a -band ARM zenith radar shows good agreements with SWE of the snow cover and differences comparable to those of ERA5. Based on the results, we suggest the K a -band radar-derived snowfall as an upper limit and the present weather detector on RV Polarstern as a lower limit of a cumulative snowfall range. Based on these findings, we suggest a cumulative snowfall of 72 to 107 mm and a precipitation mass loss of the snow cover due to erosion and sublimation as between 47 % and 68 %, for the time period between 31 October 2019 and 26 April 2020. Extending this period beyond available snow cover measurements, we suggest a cumulative snowfall of 98–114 mm.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A perspective on iron (Fe) in the atmosphere: air quality, climate, and the ocean

As scientists engage in research motivated by climate change and the impacts of pollution on air, water, and human health, we increasingly recognize the need for the scientific community to improve communication and knowledge exchange across disciplines to address pressing and outstanding research questions holistically. Our professional paths have crossed because our research activities focus on the chemical reactivity of Fe-containing minerals in air and water, and at the air-sea interface. (Photo)chemical reactions driven by Fe can take place at the surface of the particles/droplets or within the condensed phase. The extent and rates of these reactions are influenced by water content and biogeochemical activity ubiquitous in these systems. One of these reactions is the production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) that cause damage to respiratory organs. Another is that the reactivity of Fe and organics in aerosol particles alter surficial physicochemical properties that impact aerosol-radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions. Also, upon deposition, aerosol particles influence ocean biogeochemical processes because micronutrients such as Fe or toxic elements such as copper become bioavailable. We provide a perspective on these topics and future research directions on the reactivity of Fe in atmospheric aerosol systems, from sources to short- and long-term impacts at the sinks with emphasis on needs to enhance the predictive power of atmospheric and ocean models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AmeriFlux AR-Rom Romano Mar Chiquita BA

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site AR-Rom Romano Mar Chiquita BA. Site Description - The site was at Mar Chiquita coastal lagoon, located in the southeast of Buenos Aires province, Argentina, in an agricultural establishment (“Antonio Romano S. A.”), whose main activity was cattle production. A flux tower was settled within the raised high marsh approximately 6 km from the sea and 2 km from a lagoon. The water body showed two hydrographic areas with marine and inland influence regulated by the sea tides and rainfall respectively. There were sandy dunes occupied by open vegetation composed of grasses and herb species. Physiognomy surrounding the measurement site was the characteristic evergreen grassy landscape with an average canopy height of 0.7 m and little phenological variation throughout the year.

Gassmann, Maria Isabel↗

Air-coupled tsunamis generated from impacts and airbursts: Our understanding before Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai

The effort to prevent or mitigate the effects of an impact on Earth is known as planetary defense. A significant component of planetary defense research involves risk assessment. Much of our understanding of the risk from near-Earth objects comes from the geologic record in the form of impact craters, but not all asteroid impacts are crater-forming events. Small asteroids explode before reaching the surface, generating an airburst, and most impacts into the ocean do not penetrate the water to form a crater in the sea floor. The risk from these non-crater-forming ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall threat. We are currently working to better understand impact scenarios that can generate dangerous tsunamis. One of the suggested mechanisms for the production of asteroid–generated tsunamis is by direct coupling of the pressure wave to the water, analogous to the means by which a moving weather front can generate a meteotsunami. To test this hypothesis, we ran a series of airburst simulations and provided time-resolved pressure and wind profiles to use as source functions for tsunami models. We used the CTH hydrocode to model the various airburst scenarios to compare to the results of other simulations and provide time dependent boundary conditions as input to shallow-water wave propagation codes. The strongest and most destructive meteotsunamis are generated by atmospheric pressure oscillations with amplitudes of only a few hPa1 (mbar), corresponding to changes in sea level of a few cm. The resulting wave is strongest when there is a resonance between the ocean and the atmospheric forcing. A Proudman resonance takes place when the atmospheric disturbance’s translational speed (U) equals the longwave phase speed $\sqrt{gh}$ of shallow water wave. Coupling is strongest when the Froude number (Fr=U/c) is unity. A weather front propagates much slower than the speed of sound, so meteotsunamis are most common and dangerous in shallow bodies of water such as the Mediterranean Sea or Lake Michigan. By contrast, the blast wave from an airburst or crater-forming impact propagates at a speed faster than a tsunami in the deepest ocean, and a Proudman resonance cannot be achieved even though the overpressures are orders of magnitude greater. However, blast wave profiles are N-waves in which a sharp shock wave leading to overpressure is followed by a more gradual rarefaction to a much longer-duration underpressure phase. Even though the blast outruns the water wave it is forcing, the tsunami should continue to be driven by the out-of-resonance gradient associated with the suction phase, which may depend strongly on the details of the airburst or impact scenario. The open question is whether there are any conditions under which such an airburst-driven tsunami can be dangerous enough to contribute to the overall impact risk. We have also identified other potential mechanisms for airburst-generated tsunamis: 1) reaction force at the surface from the plume ejected into space, which carries significant momentum, 2) expanding toroidal vortices at the surface, which travel more slowly than the shock wave and can generate a Proudman resonance in relatively shallow ocean (such as continental shelf), and 3) steam explosion from seawater ablation by a “Type II” (Libyan Desert Glass-type) airburst in which the hot vapor jet descends to the surface. On January 15, 2022, the Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai volcano, located approximately 60 km north of Tongatapu, the main island of Tonga, violently erupted with a powerful explosion, culminating the period of volcanic activity that started in December of 2021. This event and resulting tsunamis provided an existence proof for the air pressure wave coupling mechanism we proposed. It also suggests that it can be stronger and more significant over much greater distances than we contemplated, leading to global tsunamis associated with impact events on land as well as in the water. Large atmospheric explosions generate global Lamb waves with larger amplitudes, longer periods, and slower speeds than the local and regional blast waves we modeled prior to that event. This paper reviews our analysis and modeling of airburst-driven tsunamis prior to the 2022 Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai tsunami, which was the subject of two presentations at the 2023 Planetary Defense Conference and is the subject of another paper currently in preparation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Remote Sensing of Multitemporal Functional Lake‐To‐Channel Connectivity and Implications for Water Movement Through the Mackenzie River Delta, Canada

The Mackenzie River Delta in Canada is a mediator of hydrological transport between the expansive Mackenzie River watershed and the Beaufort Sea. Within the delta, lakes frequently act as water and sediment traps, limiting or delaying the movement of material to the coastal ocean. The degree to which this filtering takes place depends on the ease with which sediment-laden water is transported from distributary channels into deltaic lakes, referred to as functional lake-to-channel connectivity, which varies both spatially and temporally. Tracking of connectivity has previously been limited to either small regions of the delta or has focused on a snapshot of connectivity at a single instance in time. Here we describe an algorithm that uses Landsat imagery to track summertime functional lake-to-channel connectivity of 10,362 lakes between 1984 and 2022 on an image-by-image basis. We calculate a total average connected lake area of 1400.7 km 2 during the 2 weeks after peak discharge, 763.6 km 2 higher than previous estimates, suggesting a larger influence of connected lakes on water movement through the delta than previously estimated. We also identify water level thresholds that lead to the initiation of high sediment river water movement into 5,989 lakes (908 lakes with uncertainty ≤±0.5 m), and identify an additional 2899 lakes whose connectivity does not vary at all. As the Arctic hydrological cycle responds to climate change, this work lays a foundation for tracking the movement of water, and the matter it carries, from the Mackenzie River watershed to the Beaufort Sea.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Sea ice breakup and freeze-up indicators for users of the Arctic coastal environment

Abstract. The timing of sea ice retreat and advance in Arctic coastal waters varies substantially from year to year. Various activities, ranging from marine transport to the use of sea ice as a platform for industrial activity or winter travel, are affected by variations in the timing of breakup and freeze-up, resulting in a need for indicators to document the regional and temporal variations in coastal areas. The primary objective of this study is to use locally based metrics to construct indicators of breakup and freeze-up in the Arctic and subarctic coastal environment. The indicators developed here are based on daily sea ice concentrations derived from satellite passive-microwave measurements. The “day of year” indicators are designed to optimize value for users while building on past studies characterizing breakup and freeze-up dates in the open pack ice. Relative to indicators for broader adjacent seas, the coastal indicators generally show later breakup at sites known to have landfast ice. The coastal indicators also show earlier freeze-up at some sites in comparison with freeze-up for broader offshore regions, likely tied to earlier freezing of shallow-water regions and areas affected by freshwater input from nearby streams and rivers. A factor analysis performed to synthesize the local indicator variations shows that the local breakup and freeze-up indicators have greater spatial variability than corresponding metrics based on regional ice coverage. However, the trends towards earlier breakup and later freeze-up are unmistakable over the post-1979 period in the synthesized metrics of coastal breakup and freeze-up and the corresponding regional ice coverage. The findings imply that locally defined indicators can serve as key links between pan-Arctic or global indicators such as sea ice extent or volume and local uses of sea ice, with the potential to inform community-scale adaptation and response.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

What is Water's Role in a Carbon Neutral Future? A Summary of Findings from a Webinar Series

There has been ever-growing interest and engagement regarding net-zero and carbon neutrality goals, with many nations committing to steep emissions reductions by mid-century. Although water plays critical roles in various sectors, there has been a distinct gap in discussions to date about the role of water in the transition to a carbon neutral future. To address this need, a webinar was convened in April 2022 to gain insights into how water can support or influence active strategies for addressing emissions activities across energy, industrial, and carbon sectors. The webinar presentations and discussions highlighted various nuances of direct and indirect water use both within and across technology sectors (Figure ES-1). For example, hydrogen and concrete production, water for mining, and inland waterways transportation are all heavily influenced by the energy sources used (fossil fuels vs. renewable sources) as well as local resource availabilities. Algal biomass, on the other hand, can be produced across diverse geographies (terrestrial to sea) in a range of source water qualities, including wastewater and could also support pollution remediation through nutrient and metals recovery. Finally, water also influences carbon dynamics and cycling within natural systems across terrestrial, aquatic, and geologic systems. These dynamics underscore not only the critical role of water within the energy-water nexus, but also the extension into the energy-watercarbon nexus.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simple Hybrid Sea Ice Nudging Method for Improving Control Over Partitioning of Sea Ice Concentration and Thickness

Abstract To assess the effect of ocean‐atmosphere coupling in the climate response to forced sea ice loss, the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project protocol includes centennial coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation model simulations with imposed sea ice loss. The protocol, which specifies sea ice concentration and thickness distribution targets, does not prescribe a method for achieving them. Although different methods for imposing sea ice loss (or growth) in models have been documented, testing of the method‐dependence of the resulting climate responses has been limited. Achieving the targeted sea ice state has proven to be challenging using the so‐called ghost‐flux nudging method, which induces ice melt from below, as this method does not constrain the partitioning between thickness and concentration. We propose, describe and test a simple method that combines the advantages of direct sea ice nudging and ghost‐flux nudging. The hybrid nudging method better captures the partitioning between thickness and concentration while conserving total water content. We document how this novel sea ice constraining method reaches specific targets, enhances surface turbulent heat flux responses to sea ice loss, and induces tropospheric warming for both polar regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effect of dust on rainfall over the Red Sea coast based on WRF-Chem model simulations

Water is the single most important element of life. Rainfall plays an important role in the spatial and temporal distribution of this precious natural resource, and it has a direct impact on agricultural production, daily life activities, and human health. One of the important elements that govern rainfall formation and distribution is atmospheric aerosol, which also affects the Earth's radiation balance and climate. Therefore, understanding how dust compositions and distributions affect the regional rainfall pattern is crucial, particularly in regions with high atmospheric dust loads such as the Middle East. Although aerosol and rainfall research has garnered increasing attention as both an independent and interdisciplinary topic in the last few decades, the details of various direct and indirect pathways by which dust affects rainfall are not yet fully understood. Here, we explored the effects of dust on rainfall formation and distribution as well as the physical mechanisms that govern these phenomena, using high-resolution WRF-Chem simulations (~1.5 km × 1.5 km) configured with an advanced double-moment cloud microphysics scheme coupled with a sectional eight-bin aerosol scheme. Our model-simulated results were realistic, as evaluated from multiple perspectives including vertical profiles of aerosol concentrations, aerosol size distributions, vertical profiles of air temperature, diurnal wind cycles, and spatio-temporal rainfall patterns. Rainfall over the Red Sea coast is mainly caused by warm rain processes, which are typically confined within a height of ~6 km over the Sarawat mountains and exhibit a strong diurnal cycle that peaks in the evening at approximately 18:00 local time under the influence of sea breezes. Numerical experiments indicated that dust could both suppress or enhance rainfall. The effect of dust on rainfall was calculated as total, indirect, and direct effects, based on 10-year August-average daily-accumulated rainfall over the study domain covering the eastern Red Sea coast. For extreme rainfall events (domain-average daily-accumulated rainfall of ≥ 1.33 mm), the net effect of dust on rainfall was positive or enhancement (6.05 %), with the indirect effect (4.54 %) and direct effect (1.51 %) both causing rainfall increase. At a 5 % significance level, the total and indirect effects were statistically significant whereas the direct effect was not. For normal rainfall events (domain-average daily-accumulated rainfall < 1.33 mm), the indirect effect enhanced rainfall (4.76 %) whereas the direct effect suppressed rainfall (-5.78 %), resulting in a negative net suppressing effect (-1.02 %), all of which were statistically significant. We investigated the possible physical mechanisms of the effects and found that the rainfall suppression by dust direct effects was mainly caused by the scattering of solar radiation by dust. The surface cooling induced by dust weakens the sea breeze circulation, which decreases the associated landward moisture transport, ultimately suppressing rainfall. For extreme rainfall events, dust causes net rainfall enhancement through indirect effects as the high dust concentration facilitates raindrops to grow when the water vapor is sufficiently available. Our results have broader scientific and environmental implications. Specifically, although dust is considered a problem from an air quality perspective, our results highlight the important role of dust on sea breeze circulation and associated rainfall over the Red Sea coastal regions. Our results also have implications for cloud seeding and water resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The role of Northeast Pacific meltwater events in deglacial climate change

Columbia River megafloods occurred repeatedly during the last deglaciation, but the impacts of this fresh water on Pacific hydrography are largely unknown. To reconstruct changes in ocean circulation during this period, we used a numerical model to simulate the flow trajectory of Columbia River megafloods and compiled records of sea surface temperature, paleo-salinity, and deep-water radiocarbon from marine sediment cores in the Northeast Pacific. The North Pacific sea surface cooled and freshened during the early deglacial (19.0-16.5 ka) and Younger Dryas (12.9-11.7 ka) intervals, coincident with the appearance of subsurface water masses depleted in radiocarbon relative to the sea surface. We infer that Pacific meltwater fluxes contributed to net Northern Hemisphere cooling prior to North Atlantic Heinrich Events, and again during the Younger Dryas stadial. Abrupt warming in the Northeast Pacific similarly contributed to hemispheric warming during the Bølling and Holocene transitions. These findings underscore the importance of changes in North Pacific freshwater fluxes and circulation in deglacial climate events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Patterns in extracellular enzyme activity and microbial diversity in deep-sea Mediterranean sediments

Deep-sea sediments are populated by diverse microbial communities that derive their nutritional requirements from the degradation of organic matter. Extracellular hydrolytic enzymes play a key role in the survival of microbes by enabling them to access and degrade complex organic compounds that are found in seafloor sediments. Despite their importance, extracellular enzymatic activity is poorly characterized at water depths greater than a few hundred meters where physical properties, such as pressure and temperature, create a unique environment for influencing enzyme behavior. In this work, we investigated microbial communities and enzyme activities in surface sediment collected at four sampling stations in the central Mediterranean Sea at water depths ranging from 800 to 2200 m. Fluorometric assays revealed that extracellular hydrolytic activity varied according to substrate type and water depth which suggests that the distributions of these enzymes within this basin are not homogenous. Furthermore, enzyme activities indicated substantial demand for phosphomonoesters and proteins, with measurable but much lower demand for polysaccharides. Barcoded amplicon sequencing of bacterial and archaeal SSU genes revealed that microbial communities varied across sampling stations and some groups displayed water-depth related trends. Our results demonstrate that heterotrophic capabilities of microbes in deep-sea Mediterranean sediments can differ substantially even within the same region.

16S rRNA↗

The Water Table Model (WTM) (v2.0.1): coupled groundwater and dynamic lake modelling

Abstract. Ice-free land comprises 26 % of the Earth's surface and holds liquid water that delineates ecosystems, affects global geochemical cycling, and modulates sea levels. However, we currently lack the capacity to simulate and predict these terrestrial water changes across the full range of relevant spatial (watershed to global) and temporal (monthly to millennial) scales. To address this knowledge gap, we present the Water Table Model (WTM), which integrates coupled components to compute dynamic lake and groundwater levels. The groundwater component solves the 2D horizontal groundwater flow equation using non-linear equation solvers from the C++ PETSc (Portable, Extensible Toolkit for Scientific Computation) library. The dynamic lake component makes use of the Fill–Spill–Merge (FSM) algorithm to move surface water into lakes, where it may evaporate or affect groundwater flow. In a proof-of-concept application, we demonstrate the continental-scale capabilities of the WTM by simulating the steady-state climate-driven water table for the present day and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 000 calendar years before present) across the North American continent. During the LGM, North America stored an additional 14.98 cm of sea-level equivalent (SLE) in lakes and groundwater compared to the climate-driven present-day scenario. We compare the present-day result to other simulations and real-world data. Open-source code for the WTM is available on GitHub and Zenodo.

Callaghan, Kerry L. (ORCID:0000000226740838)↗

Impacts of the Thermal Gradient on Inland Advecting Sea Breezes in the Southeastern United States

Sea breezes are frequently observed in the South Carolina/Georgia region of the Southeastern United States (SEUS) and can reach upwards of 150km inland. This region is unique among the places frequently affected by sea breeze due to it being a continental location with relatively flat topography. The thermal gradient between land and water environments is a factor in introducing the sea breeze, but its role in the inland extent of sea breeze propagation isn’t as well known. We investigate the role of the thermal gradient in previously catalogued sea breeze events observed at the Savannah River Site (SRS) by taking differences of temperature measurements at inland and coastal weather stations for the days that the events occurred. We saw that the temperature differences for those days were much higher than in the non-sea breeze days during the mornings and afternoon. Numerical models were also used to conduct a sensitivity study on a sea breeze case, using simple modifications of the temperature gradient. We found that while the modifications did not stop the generation of a sea breeze circulation, the extent of the inland propagation was dependent on the magnitude of the thermal gradient.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the variability of the Bering Sea Cold Pool and implications for the biophysical environment

The Bering Sea experiences a seasonal sea ice cover, which is important to the biophysical environment found there. A pool of cold bottom water (<2°C) is formed on the shelf each winter as a result of cooling and vertical mixing due to brine rejection during the predominately local sea ice growth. The extent and distribution of this Cold Pool (CP) is largely controlled by the winter extent of sea ice in the Bering Sea, which can vary considerably and recently has been much lower than average. The cold bottom water of the CP is important for food security because it delineates the boundary between arctic and subarctic demersal fish species. A northward retreat of the CP will likely be associated with migration of subarctic species toward the Chukchi Sea. We use the fully-coupled Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to examine variability of the extent and distribution of the CP and its relation to change in the sea ice cover in the Bering Sea during the period 1980–2018. RASM results confirm the direct correlation between the extent of sea ice and the CP and show a smaller CP as a consequence of realistically simulated recent declines of the sea ice cover in the Bering Sea. In fact, the area of the CP was found to be only 31% of the long-term mean in July of 2018. In addition, we also find that a low ice year is followed by a later diatom bloom, while a heavy ice year is followed by an early diatom bloom. Finally, the RASM probabilistic intra-annual forecast capability is reviewed, based on 31-member ensembles for 2019–2021, for its potential use for prediction of the winter sea ice cover and the subsequent summer CP area in the Bering Sea.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗