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NASA NTRS2016

Combining Livestock Production Information in a Process-Based Vegetation Model to Reconstruct the History of Grassland Management

Grassland management type (grazed or mown) and intensity (intensive or extensive) play a crucial role in the greenhouse gas balance and surface energy budget of this biome, both at field scale and at large spatial scale. However, global gridded historical information on grassland management intensity is not available. Combining modelled grass-biomass productivity with statistics of the grass-biomass demand by livestock, we reconstruct gridded maps of grassland management intensity from 1901 to 2012. These maps include the minimum area of managed vs. maximum area of unmanaged grasslands and the fraction of mown vs. grazed area at a resolution of 0.5deg by 0.5deg. The grass-biomass demand is derived from a livestock dataset for 2000, extended to cover the period 19012012. The grass-biomass supply (i.e. forage grass from mown grassland and biomass grazed) is simulated by the process-based model ORCHIDEE-GM driven by historical climate change, risingCO2 concentration, and changes in nitrogen fertilization. The global area of managed grassland obtained in this study increases from 6.1 x 10(exp 6) km(exp 2) in 1901 to 12.3 x 10(exp 6) kmI(exp 2) in 2000, although the expansion pathway varies between different regions. ORCHIDEE-GM also simulated augmentation in global mean productivity and herbage-use efficiency over managed grassland during the 20th century, indicating a general intensification of grassland management at global scale but with regional differences. The gridded grassland management intensity maps are model dependent because they depend on modelled productivity. Thus specific attention was given to the evaluation of modelled productivity against a series of observations from site-level net primary productivity (NPP) measurements to two global satellite products of gross primary productivity (GPP) (MODIS-GPP and SIF data). Generally, ORCHIDEE-GM captures the spatial pattern, seasonal cycle, and inter-annual variability of grassland productivity at global scale well and thus is appropriate for global applications presented here.

Livestock dataset↗

NASA NTRS2011

Bridging Empirical and Physical Approaches for Landslide Monitoring and Early Warning

Rainfall-triggered landslides typically occur and are evaluated at local scales, using slope-stability models to calculate coincident changes in driving and resisting forces at the hillslope level in order to anticipate slope failures. Over larger areas, detailed high resolution landslide modeling is often infeasible due to difficulties in quantifying the complex interaction between rainfall infiltration and surface materials as well as the dearth of available in situ soil and rainfall estimates and accurate landslide validation data. This presentation will discuss how satellite precipitation and surface information can be applied within a landslide hazard assessment framework to improve landslide monitoring and early warning by considering two disparate approaches to landslide hazard assessment: an empirical landslide forecasting algorithm and a physical slope-stability model. The goal of this research is to advance near real-time landslide hazard assessment and early warning at larger spatial scales. This is done by employing high resolution surface and precipitation information within a probabilistic framework to provide more physically-based grounding to empirical landslide triggering thresholds. The empirical landslide forecasting tool, running in near real-time at http://trmm.nasa.gov, considers potential landslide activity at the global scale and relies on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation data and surface products to provide a near real-time picture of where landslides may be triggered. The physical approach considers how rainfall infiltration on a hillslope affects the in situ hydro-mechanical processes that may lead to slope failure. Evaluation of these empirical and physical approaches are performed within the Land Information System (LIS), a high performance land surface model processing and data assimilation system developed within the Hydrological Sciences Branch at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. LIS provides the capabilities to quantify uncertainty from model inputs and calculate probabilistic estimates for slope failures. Results indicate that remote sensing data can provide many of the spatiotemporal requirements for accurate landslide monitoring and early warning; however, higher resolution precipitation inputs will help to better identify small-scale precipitation forcings that contribute to significant landslide triggering. Future missions, such as the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission will provide more frequent and extensive estimates of precipitation at the global scale, which will serve as key inputs to significantly advance the accuracy of landslide hazard assessment, particularly over larger spatial scales.

Kirschbaum, Dalia↗

NASA NTRS2007

Multi-Scale Modeling of Magnetospheric Reconnection

One of the major challenges in modeling the magnetospheric magnetic reconnection is to quantify the interaction between large-scale global magnetospheric dynamics and microphysical processes in diffusion regions near reconnection sites. There is still considerable debate as to what degree microphysical processes on kinetic scales affect the global evolution and how important it is to substitute numerical dissipation and/or ad hoc anomalous resistivity by a physically motivated model of dissipation. Comparative studies of magnetic reconnection in small scale geometries demonstrated that MHD simulations that included non-ideal processes in terms of a resistive term $\eta J$ did not produce the fast reconnection rates observed in kinetic simulations. For a broad range of physical parameters in collisionless magnetospheric plasma, the primary mechanism controlling the dissipation in the vicinity of the reconnection site is non-gyrotropic effects with spatial scales comparable with the particle Larmor radius. We utilize the global MHD code BATSRUS and incorporate nongyrotropic effects in diffusion regions in terms of corrections to the induction equation. We developed an algorithm to search for magnetotail reconnection sites, specifically where the magnetic field components perpendicular to the local current direction approaches zero and form an X-type configuration. Spatial scales of the diffusion region and magnitude of the reconnection electric field are calculated selfconsistently using MHD plasma and field parameters in the vicinity of the reconnection site. The location of the reconnection sites is updated during the simulations. To clarify the role of nongyrotropic effects in diffusion region on the global magnetospheric dynamic we perform simulations with steady southward IMF driving of the magnetosphere. Ideal MHD simulations with magnetic reconnection supported by numerical resistivity produce steady configuration with almost stationary near-earth neutral line (NENL). Simulations with non-gyrotropic corrections demonstrate dynamic quasi-periodic response to the steady driving condition. The loading/unloading cycle in non-gyrotropic MHD results has a non-stationary reconnection site in the magnetotail, with the retreating during the stretching phase and then a new NENL forming in the resulting thin plasma sheet. We expect that this model will lead to improved representations of space weather event in the magnetosphere.

Kuznetsova, M. M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Extinction coefficients from lidar observations in ice clouds compared to in-situ measurements from the Cloud Integrating Nephelometer during CRYSTAL-FACE

This paper presents a comparison of volume extinction coefficients in tropical ice clouds retrieved from two instruments : the 532-nm Cloud Physics Lidar (CPL), and the in-situ probe Cloud Integrating Nephelometer (CIN). Both instruments were mounted on airborne platforms during the CRYSTAL-FACE campaign and took measurements in ice clouds up to 17km. Coincident observations from three cloud cases are compared : one synoptically-generated cirrus cloud of low optical depth, and two ice clouds located on top of convective systems. Emphasis is put on the vertical variability of the extinction coefficient. Results show small differences on small spatial scales (approx. 100m) in retrievals from both instruments. Lidar retrievals also show higher extinction coefficients in the synoptic cirrus case, while the opposite tendency is observed in convective cloud systems. These differences are generally variations around the average profile given by the CPL though, and general trends on larger spatial scales are usually well reproduced. A good agreement exists between the two instruments, with an average difference of less than 16% on optical depth retrievals.

Noel, Vincent↗

NASA NTRS1998

Thermal Characteristics of Urban Landscapes

Although satellite data are very useful for analysis of the urban heat island effect at a coarse scale, they do not lend themselves to developing a better understanding of which surfaces across the city contribute or drive the development of the urban heat island effect. Analysis of thermal energy responses for specific or discrete surfaces typical of the urban landscape (e.g., asphalt, building rooftops, vegetation) requires measurements at a very fine spatial scale (i.e., less than 15 m) to adequately resolve these surfaces and their attendant thermal energy regimes. Additionally, very fine scale spatial resolution thermal infrared data, such as that obtained from aircraft, are very useful for demonstrating to planning officials, policy makers, and the general populace the benefits of the urban forest. These benefits include mitigating the urban heat island effect, making cities more aesthetically pleasing and more habitable environments, and aid in overall cooling of the community. High spatial resolution thermal data are required to quantify how artificial surfaces within the city contribute to an increase in urban heating and the benefit of cool surfaces (e.g., surface coatings that reflect much of the incoming solar radiation as opposed to absorbing it thereby lowering urban temperatures). The TRN (thermal response number) is a technique using aircraft remotely sensed surface temperatures to quantify the thermal response of urban surfaces. The TRN was used to quantify the thermal response of various urban surface types ranging from completely vegetated surfaces to asphalt and concrete parking lots for Huntsville, AL.

Luvall, Jeffrey C.↗

NASA NTRS2007

The Use of the Airborne Thermal/Visible Land Application Sensor (ATLAS) to Determine the Thermal Response Numbers for Urban Areas

Although satellite data are very useful for analysis of the urban heat island effect at a coarse scale, they do not lend themselves to developing a better understanding of which surfaces across the city contribute or drive the development of the urban heat island effect. Analysis of thermal energy responses for specific or discrete surfaces typical of the urban landscape (e.g., asphalt, building rooftops, vegetation) requires measurements at a very fine spatial scale (i.e., < 15m) to adequately resolve these surfaces and their attendant thermal energy regimes. Additionally, very fine scale spatial resolution thermal infrared data, such as that obtained from aircraft, are very useful for demonstrating to planning officials, policy makers, and the general populace the benefits of the urban forest. These benefits include mitigating the urban heat island effect, making cities more aesthetically pleasing and more habitable environments, and aid in overall cooling of the community. High spatial resolution thermal data are required to quantify how artificial surfaces within the city contribute to an increase in urban heating and the benefit of cool surfaces (e.g., surface coatings that reflect much of the incoming solar radiation as opposed to absorbing it thereby lowering urban temperatures). The TRN (thermal response number)(Luvall and Holbo 1989) is a technique using aircraft remotely sensed surface temperatures to quantify the thermal response of urban surfaces. The TRN was used to quantify the thermal response of various urban surface types ranging from completely vegetated surfaces to asphalt and concrete parking lots for several cities in the United States.

Luvall, Jeffrey C.↗

NASA NTRS2020

A Multi-scaled Analysis of Forest Structure using Individual-Based Modeling in a Costa Rican Rainforest

Consideration of scale is essential when examining structural relationships in forests. In this study, we present a parameterization of the FORMIND individual-based forest model for old growth Atlantic lowland rainforest in La Selva, Costa Rica. Results show that the simulated forest reproduces the structural complexity of Costa Rican rainforest within 2.3% of aboveground biomass values, based on comparisons with CARBONO inventory plot data. The Costa Rica FORMIND simulation was then used to investigate the relationship between canopy height and aboveground biomass (AGB), leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary productivity (GPP) at different spatial scales (20 × 20 m, 60 × 60 m, 100mx100m). The relationship between aboveground biomass and height is of particular importance toward the calibration of various remote sensing products including lidar and radar, whereas the LAI and GPP relationships are understudied in this context. We found that the relationship between all three variables and height varies considerably: the relationship is stronger at finer scales and weaker at coarser resolution. However, in all three comparisons, RMSE also decreased as scales coarsened, with the largest difference shown between 100 m and 10 m resolutions in relating AGB to Lorey's height (R^2 decreased by 0.3; RMSE decreased by 114.5 Mg/ha). This suggests that a trade-off between accuracy and precision exists, and further highlights the importance of spatial scale in determining the relatability of forest structure variables.

A.H.Armstrong↗

NASA NTRS1994

Toward a theory of interstellar turbulence. 1: Weak Alfvenic turbulence

We study weak Alfvenic turbulence of an incompressible, magnetized fluid in some detail, with a view to developing a firm theoretical basis for the dynamics of small-scale turbulence in the interstellar medium. We prove that resonant 3-wave interactions are absent. We also show that the Iroshnikov-Kraichnan theory of incompressible, magnetohydrodynamic turbulence -- which is widely accepted -- describes weak 3-wave turbulence; consequently, it is incorrect. Physical arguments, as well as detailed calculations of the coupling coefficients are used to demonstrate that these interactions are empty. We then examine resonant 4-wave interactions, and show that the resonance relations forbid energy transport to small spatial scales along the direction of the mean magnetic field, for both the shear Alfven wave and the pseudo Alfven wave. The three-dimensional inertial-range energy spectrum of 4-wave shear Alfven turbulence guessed from physical arguments reads E(k(sub z), k(sub perpendicular)) approximately V(sub A)v(sub L)L(exp -1/3)k(sub perpendicular)(exp -10/3), where V(sub A) is the Alfven speed, and v(sub L) is the velocity difference across the outer scale L. Given this spectrum, the velocity difference across lambda(sub perpendicular) approximately k(sub perpendicular exp -1) is v(sub lambda (sub perpendicular)) is approximately v(sub L)(lambda(sub perpendicular)/L)(exp 2/3). We derive a kinetic equation, and prove that this energy spectrum is a stationary solution and that it implies a positive flux of energy in k-space, along directions perpendicular to the mean magnetic field. Using this energy spectrum, we deduce that 4-wave interactions strengthen as the energy cascades to small, perpendicular spatial scales; beyond an upper bound in perpendicular wavenumber, k(sub perpendicular)L is approximately (V(sub A)/v(sub L))(exp 3/2), weak turbulence theory ceases to be valid. Energy excitation amplitudes must be very small for the 4-wave inertial-range to be substantial. When the excitation is strong, the width of the 4-wave inertial-range shrinks to zero. This seems likely to be the case in the interstellar medium.

Sridhar, S.↗

NASA NTRS2022

An Empirical Algorithm to Map Perennial Firn Aquifers and Ice Slabs Within the Greenland Ice Sheet Using Satellite L-band Microwave Radiometry

Perennial firn aquifers are subsurface meltwater reservoirs consisting of a meters-thick water-saturated firn layer that can form on spatial scales as large as tens of kilometers. They have been observed within the percolation facies of glaciated regions experiencing intense seasonal surface melting and high snow accumulation. Widespread perennial firn aquifers have been identified within the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) via field expeditions, airborne ice-penetrating radar surveys, and satellite microwave sensors. In contrast, ice slabs are nearly continuous ice layers that can also form on spatial scales as large as tens of kilometers as a result of surface and subsurface water-saturated snow and firn layers sequentially refreezing following multiple melting seasons. They have been observed within the percolation facies of glaciated regions experiencing intense seasonal surface melting but in areas where snow accumulation is at least 25 % lower as compared to perennial firn aquifer areas. Widespread ice slabs have recently been identified within the GrIS via field expeditions and airborne ice-penetrating radar surveys, specifically in areas where perennial firn aquifers typically do not form. However, ice slabs have yet to be identified from space. Together, these two ice sheet features represent distinct, but related, sub-facies within the broader percolation facies of the GrIS that can be defined primarily by differences in snow accumulation, which influences the englacial hydrology and thermal characteristics of firn layers at depth. Here, for the first time, we use enhanced-resolution vertically polarized L-band brightness temperature () imagery (2015–2019) generated using observations collected over the GrIS by NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite to map perennial firn aquifer and ice slab areas together as a continuous englacial hydrological system. We use an empirical algorithm previously developed to map the extent of Greenland's perennial firn aquifers via fitting exponentially decreasing temporal L-band signatures to a set of sigmoidal curves. This algorithm is recalibrated to also map the extent of ice slab areas using airborne ice-penetrating radar surveys collected by NASA's Operation IceBridge (OIB) campaigns (2010–2017). Our SMAP-derived maps show that between 2015 and 2019, perennial firn aquifer areas extended over 64 000 km2, and ice slab areas extended over 76 000 km2. Combined together, these sub-facies are the equivalent of 24 % of the percolation facies of the GrIS. As Greenland's climate continues to warm, seasonal surface melting will increase in extent, intensity, and duration. Quantifying the possible rapid expansion of these sub-facies using satellite L-band microwave radiometry has significant implications for understanding ice-sheet-wide variability in englacial hydrology that may drive meltwater-induced hydrofracturing and accelerated ice flow as well as high-elevation meltwater runoff that can impact the mass balance and stability of the GrIS.

Julie Z Miller↗

NASA NTRS1990

Dense gas and HII regions in the starburst galaxy NGC 253

The energetic activity in the nuclear barred region of NGC 253 is attributable to a burst of star formation. NGC 253 is in many ways a twin of the prototypical starburst galaxy M82; the strong non-thermal radio continuum, high far-infrared luminosity, and bright molecular emission of the central 1 Kpc parallel the morphology of the M82 starburst. Furthermore, the filamentary low ionization optical emission and extended x ray emission along the minor axis in NGC 253 is similar to a scaled down version of the well developed galactic bipolar wind in M82. The infrared luminosity of NGC 253, 3(exp 10) solar luminosity, is comparable to M82 but is emitted from a smaller region (Telesco and Harper 1980). This suggests that the NGC 253 starburst may be more intense and at an earlier evolutionary stage than M82. However, the presence of a non-stellar AGN in NGC 253 may complicate the comparison (Turner and Ho, 1985). Researchers used the Hat Creek millimeter interferometer to map emission from the J = 1 to 0 transitions of HCN and HCO(+) as well as 3 mm continuum emission, toward the nuclear region of NGC 253. The HCO(+) and continuum observations are sensitive to spatial scales from 6 to 45 seconds. The 2 minute field of view comfortably includes the entire starburst region (about 40 seconds; 650 pc). Because the longer baseline HCN observations are not yet complete, they are only sensitive to spatial scales from 15 to 45 seconds.

Carlstrom, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Earth Radiation Imbalance from a Constellation of 66 Iridium Satellites: Climate Science Aspects

The "global warming hiatus" since the 1998 El Nino, highlighted by Meehl et al., and the resulting "missing energy" problem highlighted by Trenberth et al., has opened the door to a more fundamental view of climate change than mere surface air temperature. That new view is based on two variables which are strongly correlated: the rate of change of ocean heat content d(OHC)/dt; and Earth Radiation Imbalance (ERI) at the top of the atmosphere, whose guesstimated range is 0.4 to 0.9 Watts per square meters (this imbalance being mainly due to increasing CO2). The Argo float array is making better and better measurements of OHC. But existing satellite systems cannot measure ERI to even one significant digit. So, climate model predictions of ERI are used in place of real measurements of it, and the satellite data are tuned to the climate model predictions. Some oceanographers say "just depend on Argo for understanding the global warming hiatus and the missing energy", but we don't think this is a good idea because d(OHC)/dt and ERI have different time scales and are never perfectly correlated. We think the ERB community needs to step up to measuring ERI correctly, just as oceanographers have deployed Argo to measure OHC correctly. This talk will overview a proposed constellation of 66 Earth radiation budget instruments, hosted on Iridium satellites, that will actually be able to measure ERI to at least one significant digit, thus enabling a crucial test of climate models. This constellation will also be able to provide ERI at two-hourly time scales and 500-km spatial scales without extrapolations from uncalibrated narrowband geostationary instruments, using the highly successful methods of GRACE to obtain spatial resolution. This high time resolution would make ERI a synoptic variable like temperature, and allow studies of ERI's response to fast-evolving phenomena like dust storms and hurricanes and even brief excursions of Total Solar Irradiance. Time permitting, we will also discuss the emerging view of clear vs. cloudy and its implications for the traditional ERB approach.

Wiscombe, W.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Particle and field signatures during pseudobreakup and major expansion onset

The temporal and spatial scales of the onset of two types of substorm events are investigated. These substorms were cases where the expansion onset had precursor localized auroral activation without significant negative bay enhancement, that is, 'pseudobreakup'. High-resolution energetic particle and magnetic field data at synchronous orbit are used for the analysis together with auroral and magnetic field data simultaneously taken from ground-based instrumentation. The auroral structure following the pseudobreakup significantly resembled the major expansion aurora, except in its spatial scale. Typical magnetospheric onset signatures such as tail current diversion, dipolarization, and injection were observed associated with some of the pseudobreakups. The major expansion, on the other hand, consisted of a number of rather localized injections and expansions, each of which had timescales of 2-8 min, a comparable timescale to that of pseudobreakups. This study shows that there does not appear to be any phenomenological differences between pseudobreakups and major expansion onsets. The major difference between pseudobreakups and major expansion onsets would be the number of occurrences, as well as the intensity and the scale size of the magnetospheric source.

Nakamura, Rumi↗

NASA NTRS2003

The Chemical Composition and Gas-to-Dust Mass Ratio of Nearby Interstellar Matter

We use recent results on interstellar gas toward nearby stars and interstellar by-products within the solar system to select among the equilibrium radiative transfer models of the nearest interstellar material presented in Slavin & Frisch. For the assumption that O/H - 400 parts per million, models 2 and 8 are found to yield good fits to available data on interstellar material inside and outside of the heliosphere, with the exception of the Ne abundance in the pickup ion and anomalous cosmic-ray populations. For these models, the interstellar medium (ISM) at the entry point to the heliosphere has n(H(sup 0)) = 0.202-0.208/cu cm, n(He(sup 0) = 0.0137-0.0152/cu cm, and ionizations X(H) = 0.29-0.30, X(He) = 0.47-0.51. These best models suggest that the chemical composition of the nearby ISM is approx.60%-70% subsolar if S is undepleted. Both H(0) and H(+) need to be included when evaluating abundances of ions found in warm diffuse clouds. Models 2 and 8 yield an H filtration factor of approx.0.46. Gas-to-dust mass ratios for the ISM toward epsilon CMa are R(sub gd) = 178-183 for solar abundances of Holweger or R(sub gd) = 611-657 for an interstellar abundance standard 70% solar. Direct observations of dust grains in the solar system by Ulysses and Galileo yield R(sub gd) appr0x. 115 for models 2 and 8, supporting earlier results (Frisch and coworkers). If the local ISM abundances are subsolar, then gas and dust are decoupled over small spatial scales. The inferred variation in R(sub gd) over parsec length scales is consistent with the fact that the ISM near the Sun is part of a dynamically active cluster of cloudlets flowing away from the Sco-Cen association. Observations toward stars within approx.500 pc show that R(sub gd) correlates with the percentage of the dust mass that is carried by iron, suggesting that an Fe-rich grain core (by mass) remains after grain destruction. Evidently large dust grains (>10(exp -13) g) and small dust grains (<10(exp -13) g) are not well mixed over parsec length spatial scales in the ISM. It also appears that very small C-dominated dust grains have been destroyed in the ISM within several parsecs of the Sun, since C appears to be essentially undepleted. However, if gas-dust coupling breaks down over the cloud lifetime, the missing mass arguments applied here to determine R(sub gd) and dust grain mineralogy are not appropriate.

Frisch, Priscilla C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Bridging Current Indirect and Future Direct Estimates of Convective Mass Flux Toward Quantifying the Role of Convective Cores on Anvil Area Time Tendencies

Anvil cloud spatial extent is strongly driven by convective mass flux. However, the lack of convective mass flux observations precludes global analyses of the functional relationship between anvil cloud area growth tendencies and convective areal coverage and vertical mass flux. Partly informed by analyses of a hierarchy of WRF mesoscale convective system (MCS) simulations, in this presentation, we discuss new work on estimating convective mass flux by way of an approach that casts the problem of quantifying convective mass flux into terms related to diabatic heating vertical structure, convective area and tropospheric stability. We demonstrate the usefulness of this approach at the MCS spatial scale via development of a simple, robust model that analytically connects system-scale convective mass flux and anvil cloud area growth rates. We show that the model predicts anvil area size changes in agreement with those observed in a global convective system tracking database (TOOCAN). An additional advantage of this approach for estimating convective mass flux is that it bridges future satellite mission plans for directly observing convective mass flux (e.g., AOS) with longer-record observations made by TRMM, GPM and satellite sounder mission data (the latter used for estimating stability) that, when combined, can be used for inferring convective mass fluxes at the MCS spatial scale spanning slowly changing, diverse environments. An evaluation and bridging of both direct and indirect approaches supports convective process analyses varying over longer time periods in this “era of convection.”

convective mass flux↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Bridging current indirect and future direct estimates of convective mass flux toward quantifying the role of convective cores on anvil area time tendencies

convective mass flux↗

NASA NTRS1986

A preliminary theory of the origin of the 40-50 day oscillation

A theory of the 40 to 50 day oscillation in the tropical atmosphere which encompasses predominantly eastward propagation along the equator, spatial scales of wavenumber 1 and 2, slow time scales (20 to 70 days), and strong amplitude modulation in associated large-scale convective activity as a function of geographical location, i.e., pronounced convection is confined to the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, is presented. An initial disturbance generated near the equator disperses away from the source region, eastward by Kelvin waves and westward by Rossby waves. When the eastward disturbance passes over warm water it is expected to amplify by CISK due to enhanced supply of moisture from the ocean surface. Over cold water, its amplitude is expected to reduce due to decreased moisture supply. The climatological sea surface temperature contrast between the Indian Ocean/western Pacific and the eastern Pacific sets the spatial scale of the wave and its modulation to low wavenumbers and confines pronounced convection to the warm sector. If the eastward propagating wave can maintain itself over dissipation one circuit around the globe, it has a good chance to continue the process indefinitely, provided it is rejunvenated over the warm water with enough energy to go around for the next cycle.

Lau, K. M.↗

NASA NTRS1995

A Comparison between the TOPEX/POSEIDON Data and a Global Ocean General Circulation Model during 1992-1993

The TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetric sea level observation during 1992-1993 was used to validate the simulation made by a global ocean general circulation model (OGCM) forced by the daily wind stress and heat flux derived from the National Meteorological Center operational analysis. The OGCM is a version of the modular ocean model with a horizontal resolution of 2 deg longitude and 1 deg latitude and 22 levels in the vertical. The model simulation is compared to the observation at spatial scales of the order of 500 km and larger. Only the temporal variations are examined. The variability is composed primarily of the annual cycle and intraseasonal fluctuations (periods shorter than 100 days). The basic features of the annual cycle are simulated well by the model. Major discrepancies are found in the eastern tropical Pacific, as well as the eastern North Pacific and most of the interior of the North Atlantic. The culprit is suspected to be the inadequate heat forcing and mixing parameterizations of the model. Significant intraseasonal variability is found in the central North Pacific and the Southern Ocean. The simulation is highly correlated with the observation at periods from 20 to 100 days. The spatial scales are larger than 1000 km in many places. These variabilities are apparently the barotropic response of the ocean to wind forcing. The results of the study provide a basis for future assimilation of the data into the OGCM for improved description of the large-scale ocean variabilities.

Chao, Yi↗

NASA NTRS1996

Assessment of Rainfall Estimates Using a Standard Z-R Relationship and the Probability Matching Method Applied to Composite Radar Data in Central Florida

Precipitation estimates from radar systems are a crucial component of many hydrometeorological applications, from flash flood forecasting to regional water budget studies. For analyses on large spatial scales and long timescales, it is frequently necessary to use composite reflectivities from a network of radar systems. Such composite products are useful for regional or national studies, but introduce a set of difficulties not encountered when using single radars. For instance, each contributing radar has its own calibration and scanning characteristics, but radar identification may not be retained in the compositing procedure. As a result, range effects on signal return cannot be taken into account. This paper assesses the accuracy with which composite radar imagery can be used to estimate precipitation in the convective environment of Florida during the summer of 1991. Results using Z = 30OR(sup 1.4) (WSR-88D default Z-R relationship) are compared with those obtained using the probability matching method (PMM). Rainfall derived from the power law Z-R was found to he highly biased (+90%-l10%) compared to rain gauge measurements for various temporal and spatial integrations. Application of a 36.5-dBZ reflectivity threshold (determined via the PMM) was found to improve the performance of the power law Z-R, reducing the biases substantially to 20%-33%. Correlations between precipitation estimates obtained with either Z-R relationship and mean gauge values are much higher for areal averages than for point locations. Precipitation estimates from the PMM are an improvement over those obtained using the power law in that biases and root-mean-square errors are much lower. The minimum timescale for application of the PMM with the composite radar dataset was found to be several days for area-average precipitation. The minimum spatial scale is harder to quantify, although it is concluded that it is less than 350 sq km. Implications relevant to the WSR-88D system are discussed.

Crosson, William L.↗