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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
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NASA NTRS1991

Ionospheric storm effects at subauroral latitudes - A case study

An attempt is made to classify ionospheric storm effects at subauroral latitudes according to their presumed origin. The storm of December 7/8, 1982, serves as an example. It is investigated using ionosonde, electron content, and DE 2 satellite data. The following effects are distinguished: (1) positive storm effects caused by traveling atmospheric disturbances, (2) positive storm effects caused by changes in the large-scale thermospheric wind circulation, (3) positive storm effects caused by the expansion of the polar ionization enhancement, (4) negative storm effects caused by perturbations of the neutral gas composition, and (5) negative storm effects caused by the equatorward displacement of the trough region.

Proelss, G. W.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Cloud-to-ground lightning in a tornadic storm on 8 May 1986

The National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) gathered Doppler radar and lightning ground strike data on a supercell storm that produced three tornadoes, including an F3 tornado in Edmond, Oklahoma, approximately 40 km north of NSSL. The Edmond storm formed 30 km ahead of a storm complex and developed its first and most damaging tornado just as the storm complex started to overtake it from the west. Lightning strike locations tended to concentrate just north of the mesocyclone, close to and inside a 50 dBZ reflectivity core. Positive ground flashes began just prior to the storm becoming tornadic, and positive flash rates peaked during the tornadic stage of the storm.

Macgorman, Donald R.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Simulations of phase space distributions of storm time proton ring current

We use results of guiding-center simulations of ion transport to map phase space densities of the stormtime proton ring current. We model a storm as a sequence of substorm-associated enhancements in the convection electric field. Our pre-storm phase space distribution is an analytical solution to a steady-state transport model in which quiet-time radial diffusion balances charge exchange. This pre-storm phase space spectra at L approximately 2 to 4 reproduce many of the features found in observed quiet-time spectra. Using results from simulations of ion transport during model storms having main phases of 3, 6, and 12 hr, we map phase space distributions from the pre-storm distribution in accordance with Liouville's theorem. We find stormtime enhancements in the phase space densities at energies E approximately 30-160 keV for L approximately 2.5 to 4. These enhancements agree well with the observed stormtime ring current. For storms with shorter main phases (approximately 3 hr), the enhancements are caused mainly by the trapping of ions injected from open night side trajectories, and diffusive transport of higher-energy (greater than or approximately 160 keV) ions contributes little to the stormtime ring current. However, the stormtime ring current is augmented also by the diffusive transport of higher-energy ions (E greater than or approximately 160 keV) durinng stroms having longer main phases (greater than or approximately 6 hr). In order to account for the increase in Dst associated with the formation of the stormtime ring current, we estimate the enhancement in particle-energy content that results from stormtime ion transport in the equatorial magnetosphere. We find that transport alone cannot account for the entire increase in absolute value of Dst typical of a major storm. However, we can account for the entire increase in absolute value of Dst by realistically increasing the stormtime outer boundary value of the phase space density relative to the quiet-time value. We compute the magnetic field produced by the ring current itself and find that radial profiles of the magnetic field depression resemble those obtained from observational data.

Chen, Margaret W.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Characterizing the Relationships Among Lightning and Storm Parameters: Lightning as a Proxy Variable

We have gained important insights from prior studies that have suggested relationships between lightning and storm growth, decay, convective rain flux, vertical distribution of storm mass and echo volume in the region, and storm energetics. A study was initiated in the Summer of 1996 to determine how total (in-cloud plus ground) lightning observations might provide added knowledge to the forecaster in the determination and identification of severe thunderstorms and weather hazards in real-time. The Melbourne Weather Office was selected as a primary site to conduct this study because Melbourne is the only site in the world with continuous and open access to total lightning (LDAR) data and a Doppler (WSR-88D) radar. A Lightning Imaging Sensor Data Applications Demonstration (LISDAD) system was integrated into the forecaster's workstation during the Summer 1996 to allow the forecaster to interact in real-time with the multi-sensor data being displayed. LISDAD currently ingests LDAR data, the cloud-to-ground National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) data, and the Melbourne radar data in f real-time. The interactive features provide the duty forecaster the ability to perform quick diagnostics on storm cells of interest. Upon selection of a storm cell, a pop-up box appears displaying the time-history of various storm parameters (e.g., maximum radar reflectivity, height of maximum reflectivity, echo-top height, NLDN and LDAR lightning flash rates, storm-based vertically integrated liquid water content). This product is archived to aid on detailed post-analysis.

Goodman, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Estimates of Leonid Storm Probabilities and Fluxes from Historical Information

We have analyzed accounts of Leonid storms and showers occurring near the 33 year resonance to derive probabilities of the occurrence of Leonid storms as a function of time since comet nodal passage and distance to the orbit of the particle stream. Based on this analysis, we have obtained the following storm probabilities for the coming apparition: 1997 - 33%, 1998 - 60%, 1999 - 100%, and 2000 - 25%. 95% confidence bands are also computed for these years. An expression for the Leonid storm flux is derived using a simple velocity-corrected ZHR scaling to the sporadic flux, which is then compared to that obtained from observations of the 1966 Leonid storm. The two results agree to within a factor of five, provided the Kessler meteor mass-magnitude relation is used. If the Jenniskens mass-magnitude relation is adopted, then the results are more disparate, disagreeing by a full order of magnitude. From the standpoint of spacecraft risk, it would make sense to choose the more conservative of the two relations, so the expression for the Leonid storm flux is F(sub storm) = 3x 10(exp 19) ZHR m(exp -1.3), where m, the meteoroid mass, is in grams, and the flux is in units of # /m2s. Based on the historical record, we are expecting Leonid ZHR's somewhere between 1000 and 5000 in 1998 and 1999.

Cooke, William J., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Numerical Simulations of Precipitation Processes, Microphysics, and Microwave Radiative Properties of flood Producing Storms in Mediterranean & Adriatic Basins

A comprehensive understanding of the meteorological and microphysical nature of Mediterranean storms requires a combination of in situ data analysis, radar data analysis, and satellite data analysis, effectively integrated with numerical modeling studies at various scales. An important aspect of understanding microphysical controls of severe storms, is first understanding the meteorological controls under which a storm has evolved, and then using that information to help characterize the dominant microphysical processes. For hazardous Mediterranean storms, highlighted by the October 5-6, 1998 Friuli flood event in northern Italy, a comprehensive microphysical interpretation requires an understanding of the multiple phases of storm evolution. This involves intense convective development, Sratiform decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting processes, as well as the associated vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that effect details of the size distributions and fall rates of the various types of hydrometeors found within the storm environment. This talk overviews the microphysical elements of a severe Mediterranean storm in such a context, investigated with the aid of TRMM satellite and other remote sensing measurements, but guided by a nonhydrostatic mesoscale model simulation of the Friuli flood event. The data analysis for this paper was conducted by my research groups at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center in Huntsville, AL and Florida State University in Tallahassee, and in collaboration with Dr. Alberto Mugnai's research group at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics in Rome. The numerical modeling was conducted by Professor Oreg Tripoli and Ms. Giulia Panegrossi at the University of Wisconsin in Madison, using Professor Tripoli's nonhydrostatic modeling system (NMS). This is a scalable, fully nested mesoscale model capable of resolving nonhydrostatic circulations from regional scale down to cloud scale and below.

Smith, Eric A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Structure of the Highly Sheared Tropical Storm Chantal During CAMEX-4

Tropical Storm Chantal during August 2001 was a storm that failed to intensify over the few days prior to making landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. An observational study of Tropical Storm Chantal is presented using a diverse data set including remote and in situ measurements from the NASA ER-2 and DC-8 and the NOAA WP-3D N42RF aircraft and satellite data. The authors discuss the storm structure from the larger scale environment down to the convective scale. Large vertical shear (850-200 hPa shear magnitude range 8-15 m/s) plays a very important role in preventing Chantal from intensifying. The storm had a poorly defined vortex that only extended up to 5-6 km altitude, and an adjacent intense convective region that comprised an MCS. The entire low-level circulation center was in the rain-free western side of the storm, about 80 km to the west-southwest of the MCS. The MCS appears to have been primarily the result of intense convergence between large-scale, low-level easterly flow with embedded downdrafts, and the cyclonic vortex flow. The individual cells in the MCS such as Cell 2 during the period of the observations, were extremely intense with reflectivity core diameters of 10 km and peak updrafts exceeding 20 m/s. Associated with this MCS were two broad subsidence (warm) regions both of which had portions over the vortex. The first layer near 700 hPa was directly above the vortex and covered most of it. The second layer near 500 hPa was along the forward and right flanks of Cell 2 and undercut the anvil divergence region above. There was not much resemblance of these subsidence layers to typical upper level warm cores in hurricanes that are necessary to support strong surface winds and a low central pressure. The observations are compared to previous studies of weakly sheared storms and modeling studies of shear effects and intensification. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2005

Forecasting of Storm Surge Floods Using ADCIRC and Optimized DEMs

Increasing the accuracy of storm surge flood forecasts is essential for improving preparedness for hurricanes and other severe storms and, in particular, for optimizing evacuation scenarios. An interactive database, developed by WorldWinds, Inc., contains atlases of storm surge flood levels for the Louisiana/Mississippi gulf coast region. These atlases were developed to improve forecasting of flooding along the coastline and estuaries and in adjacent inland areas. Storm surge heights depend on a complex interaction of several factors, including: storm size, central minimum pressure, forward speed of motion, bottom topography near the point of landfall, astronomical tides, and most importantly, maximum wind speed. The information in the atlases was generated in over 100 computational simulations, partly by use of a parallel-processing version of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. ADCIRC is a nonlinear computational model of hydrodynamics, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the US Navy, as a family of two- and three-dimensional finite element based codes. It affords a capability for simulating tidal circulation and storm surge propagation over very large computational domains, while simultaneously providing high-resolution output in areas of complex shoreline and bathymetry. The ADCIRC finite-element grid for this project covered the Gulf of Mexico and contiguous basins, extending into the deep Atlantic Ocean with progressively higher resolution approaching the study area. The advantage of using ADCIRC over other storm surge models, such as SLOSH, is that input conditions can include all or part of wind stress, tides, wave stress, and river discharge, which serve to make the model output more accurate.

Valenti, Elizabeth↗
NASA NTRS2006

Detection of Storm Damage Tracks with EOS Data

The damage surveys conducted by the NWS in the aftermath of a reported tornadic event are used to document the location of the tornado ground damage track (pathlength and width) and an estimation of the tornado intensity. This study explores the possibility of using near-real-time medium and high spatial resolution satellite imagery from the NASA Earth Observing System satellites to provide additional information for the surveys. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data were used to study the damage tracks from three tornadic storms: the La Plata, Maryland, storm of 28 April 2002 and the Ellsinore and Marquand, Missouri, storms of 24 April 2002. These storms varied in intensity and occurred over regions with significantly different land cover. It was found that, depending on the nature of the land cover, tornado damage tracks from intense storms (F1 or greater) and hail storms may be evident in ASTER, Landsat, and MODIS satellite imagery. In areas where the land cover is dominated by forests, the scar patterns can show up very clearly, while in areas of grassland and regions with few trees, scar patterns are not as obvious or cannot be seen at all in the satellite imagery. The detection of previously unidentified segments of a damage track caused by the 24 April 2002 Marquand, Missouri, tornado demonstrates the utility of satellite imagery for damage surveys. However, the capability to detect tornado tracks in satellite imagery depends on the ability to observe the ground without obstruction from space and appears to be as much dependent on the nature of the underlying surface and land cover as on the severity of the tornadic storm.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗
NASA NTRS2007

X-Band Radar for Studies of Tropical Storms from High Altitude UAV Platform

The increased role of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) in NASA's suborbital program has created a strong interest in the development of instruments with new capabilities, more compact sizes and reduced weights than the instruments currently operated on manned aircrafts. There is a strong demand and tremendous potential for using high altitude UAV (HUAV) to carry weather radars for measurements of reflectivity and wind fields from tropical storms. Tropical storm genesis frequently occurs in ocean regions that are inaccessible to piloted aircraft due to the long off shore range and the required periods of time to gather significant data. Important factors of interest for the study of hurricane genesis include surface winds, profiled winds, sea surface temperatures, precipitation, and boundary layer conditions. Current satellite precipitation and surface wind sensors have resolutions that are too large and revisit times that are too infrequent to study this problem. Furthermore, none of the spaceborne sensors measure winds within the storm itself. A dual beam X-band Doppler radar, UAV Radar (URAD), is under development at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center for the study of tropical storms from HUAV platforms, such as a Global Hawk. X-band is the most desirable frequency for airborne weather radars since these can be built in a relatively compact size using off-the-shelf components which cost significantly less than other higher frequency radars. Furthermore, X-band radars provide good sensitivity with tolerable attenuation in storms. The low-cost and light-weight URAD will provide new capabilities for studying hurricane genesis by analyzing the vertical structure of tropical cyclones as well as 3D reflectivity and wind fields in clouds. It will enable us to measure both the 3D precipitation structure and surface winds by using two antenna beams: fixed nadir and conical scanning each produced by its associated subsystem. The nadir subsystem is a magnetron based radar modified from a marine radar transceiver. It is capable of measuring vertical reflectivity and velocity profile while being a lower-cost, smaller size, and lighter weight version of the NASA ER-2 Doppler Radar (EDOP), which has flown during many NASA field campaigns and has provided valuable scientific information on hurricanes and weather phenomena. Unfortunately, EDOP is too large and heavy for most UAV platforms, but the experience gained with this instrument provided us with the heritage to build a new low-cost, light-weight, smaller system that will be capable of flying on UAVs. The scanning subsystem uses a TWT transmitter and provides measurements of 3D reflectivity/wind fields in-clouds. Conical scanning of the radar beam at a 35 deg. incidence angle will also provide information of surface wind speed and direction derived from the surface return over a single 360 deg. sweep. URAD data system will be Linux based with the capability of autonomous operation. It will utilize cutting edge digital receiver and FPGA technologies to carry out the data acquisition and processing tasks. High speed navigation data from the aircraft will also be captured and saved along with radar data for 3D measurement field reconstruction and aircraft motion correction. There is a tremendous potential for UAVs to carry down-looking weather radars for measurements of reflectivity, horizontal and vertical winds from tropical storms. With operation from HUAV platforms, the dual beam X-band radar under development promises to provide greatly needed information for tropical storm research.

Rodriquez, Shannon↗
NASA NTRS2008

How Ionospheric Ions Populate the Magnetosphere during a Magnetic Storm

Ionospheric oxygen ions have been observed throughout the magnetosphere, from the plasma sheet to the ring current region. I t has been found that the O+ /H+ density ratio in the magnetosphere increases with geomagnetic activity and varies with storm phases. During the magnetic storm in late September to earIy October 2002, Cluster was orbiting in the plasma sheet and ring current regions. At prestorm time, Cluster observed high H+ density and low O+ density in the plasma sheet and lobes. During the storm main phase, 0+ density has increased by 10 times over the pre-storm level. Strong field-aligned beams of O+ were observed in the lobes. O+ fluxes were significantly reduced in the central plasma sheet during the storm recovery. However, 0+ was still evident on the boundaries of the plasma sheet and in the lobes. In order to interpret the Cluster observations and to understand how O+ ions populate the magnetosphere during a magnetic storm, we model the storm in early October 2002 using our global ion kinetic simulation (GIK). We use the LFN global simulation model to produce electric and magnetic fields in the outer magnetosphere, the Strangeway outflow scaling with Delcourt ion trajectories to include ionospheric outflows, and the Fok inner magnetospheric model for the plasmaspheric and ring current response to all particle populations. We find that the observed composition features are qualitatively reproduced by the simulations, with some quantitative differences that point to future improvements in the models.

Fok, Mei-Ching↗
NASA NTRS2011

Global Electric Circuit Implications of Combined Aircraft Storm Electric Current Measurements and Satellite-Based Diurnal Lightning Statistics

Using rotating vane electric field mills and Gerdien capacitors, we measured the electric field profile and conductivity during 850 overflights of thunderstorms and electrified shower clouds (ESCs) spanning regions including the Southeastern United States, the Western Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, Central America and adjacent oceans, Central Brazil, and the South Pacific. The overflights include storms over land and ocean, and with positive and negative fields above the storms. Over three-quarters (78%) of the land storms had detectable lightning, while less than half (43%) of the oceanic storms had lightning. Integrating our electric field and conductivity data, we determined total conduction currents and flash rates for each overpass. With knowledge of the storm location (land or ocean) and type (with or without lightning), we determine the mean currents by location and type. The mean current for ocean thunderstorms is 1.7 A while the mean current for land thunderstorms is 1.0 A. The mean current for ocean ESCs 0.41 A and the mean current for land ESCs is 0.13 A. We did not find any significant regional or latitudinal based patterns in our total conduction currents. By combining the aircraft derived storm currents and flash rates with diurnal flash rate statistics derived from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and Optical Transient Detector (OTD) low Earth orbiting satellites, we reproduce the diurnal variation in the global electric circuit (i.e., the Carnegie curve) to within 4% for all but two short periods of time. The agreement with the Carnegie curve was obtained without any tuning or adjustment of the satellite or aircraft data. Given our data and assumptions, mean contributions to the global electric circuit are 1.1 kA (land) and 0.7 kA (ocean) from thunderstorms, and 0.22 kA (ocean) and 0.04 (land) from ESCs, resulting in a mean total conduction current estimate for the global electric circuit of 2.0 kA. Mean storm counts are 1100 for land thunderstorms, 530 for ocean ESCs, 390 for ocean thunderstorms, and 330 for land ESCs.

Mach, Douglas M.↗
NASA NTRS2020

A Framework for Understanding and Quantifying the Loss and Acceleration of Relativistic Electrons in the Outer Radiation Belt During Geomagnetic Storms

We present detailed analysis of the global relativistic electron dynamics as measured by total radiation belt content (RBC) during coronal mass ejection (CME) and corotating interaction region (CIR)-driven geomagnetic storms. Recent work has demonstrated that the response of the outer radiation belt is consistent and repeatable during geomagnetic storms. Here we build on this work to show that radiation belt dynamics can be divided into two sequential phases, which have different solar wind dependencies and which when analyzed separately reveal that the radiation belt responds more predictably than if the overall storm response is analyzed as a whole. In terms of RBC, in every storm we analyzed, a phase dominated by loss is followed by a phase dominated by acceleration. Analysis of the RBC during each of these phases demonstrates that they both respond coherently to solar wind and magnetospheric driving. However, the response is independent of whether the storm response is associated with either a CME or CIR. Our analysis shows that during the initial phase, radiation belt loss is organized by the location of the magnetopause and the strength of Dst and ultralow frequency wave power. During the second phase, radiation belt enhancements are well organized by the amplitude of ultralow frequency waves, the auroral electroject index, and solar wind energy input. Overall, our results demonstrate that storm time dynamics of the RBC is repeatable and well characterized by solar wind and geomagnetic driving, albeit with different dependencies during the two phases of a storm.

Kyle R. Murphy↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Martian B Storm Evolution: Modeling Dust Activity over the Receding South Polar CO 2 Ice Cap at Southern Hemisphere Summer Solstice

Observations of annually recurring, elevated (25 km) atmospheric warming and associated dust concentrations over the south polar cap near Southern Hemisphere (SH) summer solstice are the defining features of the regional dust storm known as the B storm [1]. Our observational analysis of MCS and TES temperature and dust retrievals include all Mars Years (MY) lacking a global dust storm (GDS) between MY 26 and MY 33 (Figure 1). The data indicate the B storm is initiated around perihelion (L s =252°) in the southern midlatitudes and reaches maximum height and intensity over the south pole near SH summer solstice at L s ~267°. At peak intensity, mid-level atmospheric temperatures are elevated by as much as 30 K and mid-level atmospheric dust mixing ratios are more than triple pre-B storm levels (1.5-2 ppm to 7-8 ppm). Cap edge lifting may contribute significantly to initial dust mobilization in the B storm since surface wind stress along the receding cap edge is likely strengthened by the combined effects of the sea breeze circulation and katabatic winds at this time of year [2, 3, 4]. We are investigating dust lifting and lofting near the south pole of Mars during SH summer using the NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model (MGCM). The NASA Ames MGCM is a finite-volume numerical model with a cubed sphere grid ideal for modeling processes at high latitudes. Initial simulations at low resolution (4x4 degrees) capture some elevated dust and associated warming at the south pole around L s =265°, but the model fails to capture the intensity of the B storm. We will examine and present the model-predicted surface stress and vertical velocities near the receding seasonal CO 2 cap edge and at the south pole during solstice. Finally, we will present higher resolution simulations to better capture small-scale dynamics and features at the pole.

Courtney M. L. Batterson↗
NASA NTRS1962

Some Measured Characteristics of Severe Storm Turbulence

Measurements of atmospheric turbulence obtained from airplane flights through severe storms in connection with the National Severe Storms Project will be discussed. Various characteristics of turbulence, such as differences in intensity between storms and the turbulence intensity with altitude and time will be indicated. These measurements for severe storm conditions will also be compared with other measurements for clear-air and non-storm weather conditions as a means of illustrating the relative severity of turbulence for various flight conditions. For these purposes, both derived gust velocities and power spectra of atmospheric turbulence will be used. The detailed nature of the vertical and horizontal flow patterns and the variations in atmospheric pressure as measured during several airplane traverses through storm centers will also be discussed.

TURBULENCE↗
NASA NTRS2015

Time Delay Between Dst Index and Magnetic Storm Related Structure in the Solar Wind

Benson et al. (2015, this volume) selected 10 large magnetic storms, with associated Dst minimum values less than or equal to -100 nT, for which high-latitude topside ionospheric electron density profiles are available from topside-sounder satellites. For these 10 storms, we performed a superposition of Dst and interplanetary parameters B, v, N(sub p) and T(sub p). We have found that two interplanetary parameters, namely B and v, are sufficient to reproduce Dst with correlation coefficient cc approximately 0.96 provided that the interplanetary parameter times are taken 0.15 days earlier than the associated Dst times. Thus we have found which part of the solar wind is responsible for each phase of the magnetic storm. This result is also verified for individual storms as well. The total duration of SRS (storm related structure in the solar wind) is 4 - 5 days which is the same as the associated Dst interval of the magnetic storm.

solar wind↗
NASA NTRS2016

The NASA Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling (NASA STORM) Project

The NASA Severe Storm Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling(NASA STORM) project enhanced NASA’s severe weather research capabilities, building upon existing Earth Science expertise at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). During this project, MSFC extended NASA’s ground-based lightning detection capacity to include a readily deployable lightning mapping array (LMA). NASA STORM also enabled NASA’s Short-term Prediction and Research Transition (SPoRT) to add convection allowing ensemble modeling to its portfolio of regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) capabilities. As a part of NASA STORM, MSFC developed new open-source capabilities for analyzing and displaying weather radar observations integrated from both research and operational networks. These accomplishments enabled by NASA STORM are a step towards enhancing NASA’s capabilities for studying severe weather and positions them for any future NASA related severe storm field campaigns.

modeling↗
NASA NTRS2018

Flood Hazard Assessment from Storm Tides, Rain and Sea Level Rise for a Tidal River Estuary

Cities and towns along the tidal Hudson River are highly vulnerable to flooding through the combination of storm tides and high streamflows, compounded by sea level rise. Here a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, validated by comparing peak water levels for 76 historical storms, is applied in a probabilistic flood hazard assessment. In simulations, the model merges streamflows and storm tides from tropical cyclones (TCs), offshore extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and inland "wet extratropical" cyclones (WETCs). The climatology of possible ETC and WETC storm events is represented by historical events (1931-2013), and simulations include gauged streamflows and inferred ungauged streamflows (based on watershed area) for the Hudson River and its tributaries. The TC climatology is created using a stochastic statistical model to represent a wider range of storms than is contained in the historical record. TC streamflow hydrographs are simulated for tributaries spaced along the Hudson, modeled as a function of TC attributes (storm track, sea surface temperature, maximum wind speed) using a statistical Bayesian approach. Results show WETCs are important to flood risk in the upper tidal river (e.g., Albany, New York), ETCs are important in the estuary (e.g., New York City) and lower tidal river, and TCs are important at all locations due to their potential for both high surge and extreme rainfall. The raising of floods by sea level rise is shown to be reduced by approximately 30-60 percent at Albany due to the dominance of streamflow for flood risk. This can be explained with simple channel flow dynamics, in which increased depth throughout the river reduces frictional resistance, thereby reducing the water level slope and the upriver water level.

Tidal river↗