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NASA NTRS1984

Coronal mass ejections observed during the solar maximum mission - Latitude distribution and rate of occurrence

Sixty-five coronal mass ejections have been identified in a systematic examination of white-light coronal images obtained between March and September 1980 by the coronagraph/polarimeter flown on the solar maximum mission spacecraft. These ejections were more uniformly distributed in position angle (or 'projected' solar latitude) than the similar events observed during the Skylab mission in 1973-1974; 27 percent of the solar maximum mission mass ejections were centered at positions more than 45 deg from the solar equator. The average rate of occurrence of the observed mass ejections for the entire solar maximum mission epoch, based on the assumption that one coronagraph image per spacecraft orbit is sufficient for detection, was 0.9 + or 0.15 per 24-hour day. Application of the same sampling assumption to the Skylab data set leads to a rate of 0.75 per 24-hour day and thus a change in this rate from the Skylab era (on the declining phase of sunspot cycle 20) to solar maximum mission (near the maximum of sunspot cycle 21) of only approximately 20 percent.

Hundhausen, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1984

A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22 - Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

Using the 'dynamo theory' method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

Schatten, K. H.↗
NASA NTRS1986

A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22: Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

Using the dynamo theory method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

Schatten, K. H.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Estimating sunspot number

An empirical method is developed to predict certain parameters of future solar activity cycles. Sunspot cycle statistics are examined, and curve fitting and linear regression analysis techniques are utilized.

Wilson, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Solar cycle review /General aspects/

Several topics are discussed in this review of the solar cycle. The basic solar-interplanetary magnetic structure is considered, and the high speed solar wind streams and their sunspot cycle variation are described, with attention to the sunspot cycle variation, the high speed solar wind streams and geomagnetic disturbances, and the causes of changes of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field. Solar storms, solar flares, and magnetic bubbles are examined with attention directed to the solar cycle variation of transient polar activities and the interplanetary disturbances associated with solar storms. Some features of cosmic rays, the 11-year cycle variation and the Forbush decreases, are considered. Attention is also directed to the terrestrial atmosphere and to the outer planets and their relation to the solar cycle.

Akasofu, S.-I.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Brightness Changes in Sun-like Stars

Does the Sun's energy output vary with time? Are observable climatic changes on the earth caused by changes in the Sun? Can we gain greater insight into this relation-ship by studying other stars with properties similar to the Sun's? In recent years, satellite observations have shown that the solar irradiance varies in phase with the 1 l-year sunspot cycle. The Sun is brighter by about O.l% at the peak of the sunspot cycle when solar magnetic activity is at its maximum. Over longer intervals, changes in the cart h's climate and solar magnetic activity seem to be correlated. We are using automatic photoelectric telescopes to measure brightness changes in a sample of 150 Sun-like stars. Lowell Observatory astronomers have also observed about 30 of these same stars with a manual telescope in a program that began 10 years before ours. Since these two data sets were acquired with different instruments and so have significant systematic differences, we developed software to combine them accurately and, therefore, extend our observational time coverage. We show sample results of brightness variations over 14 years in several Sun-like stars with different ages. Longitudinal studies like these, combined with cross-sectional studies of the larger sample of stars, may eventually allow us to infer with confidence the Sun's long-term brightness history and its impact on the earth's climate.

Henry, Stephen M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Long-term Solar Irradiance Variability: 1984-1989 Observations

Long-term variability in the total solar irradiance has been observed in the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) solar monitor measurements. The monitors have been used to measure the irradiance from the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA-9 and NOAA-10 spacecraft platforms since October 25, 1984, January 23, 1985, and October 22, 1986, respectively. Before September 1986, the ERBS irradiance values were found to be decreasing -0.03 percent per year. This period was marked by decreasing solar magnetic activity. Between September 1986 and mid-1989, the irradiance values increased approximately 0.1 percent. The latter period was marked by increasing solar activity which was associated with the initiations of the sunspot cycle number 22 and of a new 22-year Hale solar magnetic cycle. Therefore, long-term solar-irradiance variability appears to be correlated directly with solar activity. The maximum smoothed sunspot number occurred during September 1989, according to the Sunspot Index Data Center. Therefore, the recent irradiance increasing trend should disappear during early 1990 and change into a decreasing trend if the observed irradiance variability is correlated more so with the 11-year sunspot cycle than the 22-year Hale cycle. The ERBE irradiance values are presented and compared with sunspot activity for the 1984 to 1989 period. The ERBE values are compared with those available from the Nimbus-7 and Solar Maximum Mission spacecraft experiments.

Lee, Robert B., III↗
NASA NTRS2007

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun s polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock- Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130+ 30 (2 4, in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (-7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun s open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun s hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun s cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modem observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Pesnell, W. Dean↗
NASA NTRS2007

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun's polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock-Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130 plus or minus 30 (2 sigma), in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (approx. 7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun's open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun's cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modern observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Schatten, Kenneth↗
NASA NTRS1977

An unusual aspect of solar wind speed variations during solar cycle 20

Geomagnetic records from 1868 through 1975 indicate that geomagnetic activity during 1973-1975 was unusually enhanced for that phase of the sunspot cycle (5-7 years after solar maximum). Previous work indicates that long-term variations in geomagnetic activity are closely coupled to long-term variations in the bulk flow speed of the solar wind. Thus, it is inferred that reported averages of the solar-wind speed for the 1973-1975 era are unusually large for that phase of the sunspot cycle.

Gosling, J. T.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The solar cycle - A central-source wave theory

Studies stimulated by the interpretation of the Elatina formation in South Australia as a fossil record of solar activity have led to discoveries of previously unnoticed features of the sunspot cycle record and to a theory of origin of the sunspot cycle that postulates a solar core in torsional motion and a magnetomechanical wave that couples to the photosphere. The considerations supporting the solar interpretation of the Elatina formation are gathered together.

Bracewell, R. N.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Heliospheric current sheet and its solar cycle variations

The three-dimensional structure of the heliospheric current sheet is constructed for Carrington rotations 1647, 1654, 1661, 1667, 1693, 1699, and 1719. These rotations are chosen from different epochs during the sunspot cycle 21, so that geometrical changes of the current sheet during a sunspot cycle can be inferred. Only for relatively simple neutral lines on the source surface, do the structures of the current sheet approximate those envisaged by Svalgaard and Wilcox (1976) and Thomas and Smith (1981).

Akasofu, Syun-Ichi↗
NASA NTRS2005

Determining the Sun's Deep Meridional Flow Speed Using Active Latitude Drift Rates Since 1874

Dynamo models that incorporate a deep meridional return flow indicate that this flow regulates both the period and the amplitude of the sunspot cycle. We recently examined the equatorward drift of the active latitudes (as given by the centroid of the sunspot areas in each hemisphere) and found evidence supporting this view. In those studies we fit the equatorward drift in each hemisphere for each sunspot cycle with a simple parabola - giving us a drift rate and its deceleration for each hemisphere/cycle. Here we analyze the same data (the Royal Greenwich Observatory/JSAF/NOAA daily active region summaries) to determine the drift rates in each hemisphere on a yearly basis (rotation-by- rotation measurements smoothed to remove high frequencies) and fit them with a simple model for the meridional flow that provides the meridional flow speed as a function of latitude and time from 1874 to 2005. These flow speeds can be used to test dynamo models - some of which have predictive capabilities.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS1988

The solar origin of long-term variations of the interplanetary magnetic field strength

Using simple models for the coronal field structure, the spacecraft observations of the photospheric field during sunspot cycle 21 were extrapolated for the purpose of modeling quantitatively the long-term behavior of the IMF during the sunspot cycle 21. Results were compared with the measurements of the radial component of the IMF at earth. The results indicate that the solar source of the IMF can be represented to a first approximation by the dipole component of the photospheric field, whose axis is nearly perpendicular to the ecliptic plane around sunspot minimum, but tilts more strongly toward it around sunspot maximum. It was also found that the average radial IMF strength varies with heliographic latitude; around sunspot minimum, the radial IMF is expected to be roughly twice as strong above the sun's poles as near the ecliptic plane. The average strength of the photospheric field above latitude 55 deg is about 10 G around sunspot minimum.

Wang, Y.-M.↗
NASA NTRS2018

An Early Prediction of the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25

A “Solar Dynamo” (SODA) Index prediction of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 is described. The SODA Index combines values of the solar polar magnetic field and the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm to create a precursor of future solar activity. The result is an envelope of solar activity that minimizes the 11-year period of the sunspot cycle. We show that the variation in time of the SODA Index is similar to several wavelet transforms of the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm. Polar field predictions for Solar Cycles 21 – 24 are used to show the success of the polar field precursor in previous sunspot cycles. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle’s smoothed peak activity will be about 140 ± 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a Version 2 sunspot number of 135 ± 25. This suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to Solar Cycle 24. The estimated peak is expected to occur near 2025.2 ± 1.5 year. Because the current approach uses data prior to solar minimum, these estimates may improve as the upcoming solar minimum draws closer.

Solar Cycle Predictions↗
NASA NTRS1973

The relation between the polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field and the polar geomagnetic field

The relation between the azimuthal component of the interplanetary magnetic field and the polar cap geomagnetic field is discussed. The geomagnetic effects can be described as produced by an ionospheric current system encircling the magnetic pole. The sense of the current is clockwise during toward-sectors and reversed during away-sectors. The importance of this very direct solar-terrestrial relation is stressed. A recent magnetic sunspot cycle model is discussed as inferred from this relationship, the basic feature being that the sun reproduces the same sector pattern during every sunspot cycle.

Svalgaard, L.↗
NASA NTRS1987

The origin of rigidly rotating magnetic field patterns on the sun

Using analytical calculations and numerical simulations, it is shown that a meridional component of magnetic-flux transport will offset the shearing effect of differential rotation and give rise to rigidly rotating patterns of large-scale magnetic field. The nonaxisymmetric field attains a striped polarity pattern which rotates rigidly like a barber pole while its individual small-scale flux elements rotate at the differential rate of the latitudes they are crossing. On the sun, the meridional transport is provided by supergranular diffusion possibly assisted by a small poleward flow. New sources of flux retard this process and exclude the rigid rotation from the sunspot belts until well into the declining phase of the sunspot cycle. This mechanism accounts for a number of heretofore unexplained phenomena including the tendency for coronal holes to rotate rigidly during the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.

Sheeley, N. R., Jr.↗