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DOE OSTI2011

Adaptive Radiotherapy for Locally Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Does Not Underdose the Microscopic Disease and has the Potential to Increase Tumor Control

Purpose: To evaluate doses to the microscopic disease (MD) in adaptive radiotherapy (ART) for locally advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and to model tumor control probability (TCP). Methods and Materials: In a retrospective planning study, three-dimensional conformal treatment plans for 13 patients with locally advanced NSCLC were adapted to shape and volume changes of the gross tumor volume (GTV) once or twice during conventionally fractionated radiotherapy with total doses of 66 Gy; doses in the ART plans were escalated using an iso-mean lung dose (MLD) approach compared to non-adapted treatment. Dose distributions to the volumes of suspect MD were simulated for a scenario with synchronous shrinkage of the MD and GTV and for a scenario of a stationary MD despite GTV shrinkage; simulations were performed using deformable image registration. TCP calculations considering doses to the GTV and MD were performed using three different models. Results: Coverage of the MD at 50 Gy was not compromised by ART. Coverage at 60 Gy in the scenario of a stationary MD was significantly reduced from 92% {+-} 10% to 73% {+-} 19% using ART; however, the coverage was restored by iso-MLD dose escalation. Dose distributions in the MD were sufficient to achieve a TCP >80% on average in all simulation experiments, with the clonogenic cell density the major factor influencing TCP. The combined TCP for the GTV and MD was 19.9% averaged over all patients and TCP models in non-adaptive treatment with 66 Gy. Iso-MLD dose escalation achieved by ART increased the overall TCP by absolute 6% (adapting plan once) and by 8.7% (adapting plan twice) on average. Absolute TCP values were significantly different between the TCP models; however, all TCP models suggested very similar TCP increase by using ART. Conclusions: Adaptation of radiotherapy to the shrinking GTV did not compromise dose coverage of volumes of suspect microscopic disease and has the potential to increase TCP by >40% compared with radiotherapy planning without ART.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2012

Detection of Mucosal Recurrent Nasopharyngeal Carcinomas After Radiotherapy With Narrow-Band Imaging Endoscopy

Purpose: This study evaluated the feasibility of screening mucosal recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma with narrow-band imaging (NBI) endoscopy. Methods and Materials: One hundred and six patients were enrolled. All patients underwent conventional white-light (WL) endoscopic examination of the nasopharynx followed by NBI endoscopy. Biopsies were performed if recurrence was suspected. Results: We identified 32 suspected lesions by endoscopy in WL and/or NBI mode. Scattered brown spots (BS) were identified in 22 patients, and 4 of the 22 who had negative MRI findings were histopathologically confirmed to be neoplasias that were successfully removed via endoscopy. A comparison of the visualization in NBI closer view corresponded to histopathological findings in 22 BS, and the prevalence rates of neoplasias in tail signs, round signs, and irregularities signs were 0% (0/6), 0% (0/7), and 44.4% (4/9), respectively (p = 0.048). The sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic capability were 37.5%, 92.9% and 0.652 for WL, 87.5%, 74.5% and 0.810 for NBI, and 87.5%, 87.8%, and 0.876 for NBI closer view, respectively. NBI closer view was effective in increasing specificity compared with NBI alone (87.8% vs. 74.5%, p < 0.05), and in increasing sensitivity and diagnostic capability compared to WL alone (87.5% vs. 37.5%, p < 0.05; 0.876 vs. 0.652, p = 0.0001). Conclusions: Although NBI in endoscopy can improve sensitivity of mucosal recurrent nasopharyngeal neoplasias, false-positive (nonneoplasia BS) results may be obtained in areas with nonspecific inflammatory changes due to postradiation effects. NBI closer view not only can offer a timely, convenient, and highly reliable assessment of mucosal recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma, it can also make endoscopic removal possible.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2012

A 2011 Updated Systematic Review and Clinical Practice Guideline for the Management of Malignant Extradural Spinal Cord Compression

Purpose: To update the 2005 Cancer Care Ontario practice guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of adult patients with a suspected or confirmed diagnosis of extradural malignant spinal cord compression (MESCC). Methods: A review and analysis of data published from January 2004 to May 2011. The systematic literature review included published randomized control trials (RCTs), systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and prospective/retrospective studies. Results: An RCT of radiation therapy (RT) with or without decompressive surgery showed improvements in pain, ambulatory ability, urinary continence, duration of continence, functional status, and overall survival. Two RCTs of RT (30 Gy in eight fractions vs. 16 Gy in two fractions; 16 Gy in two fractions vs. 8 Gy in one fraction) in patients with a poor prognosis showed no difference in ambulation, duration of ambulation, bladder function, pain response, in-field failure, and overall survival. Retrospective multicenter studies reported that protracted RT schedules in nonsurgical patients with a good prognosis improved local control but had no effect on functional or survival outcomes. Conclusions: If not medically contraindicated, steroids are recommended for any patient with neurologic deficits suspected or confirmed to have MESCC. Surgery should be considered for patients with a good prognosis who are medically and surgically operable. RT should be given to nonsurgical patients. For those with a poor prognosis, a single fraction of 8 Gy should be given; for those with a good prognosis, 30 Gy in 10 fractions could be considered. Patients should be followed up clinically and/or radiographically to determine whether a local relapse develops. Salvage therapies should be introduced before significant neurologic deficits occur.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2023

The use of analgesics for intentional self-poisoning: Trends in U.S. poison center data

In the U.S., intentional self-poisonings with analgesics that are available without a prescription increased from 2000 to 2018. Given concerns regarding mental health outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic, we examined and compared trends in pediatric and adult intentional self-poisoning with acetaminophen, aspirin, ibuprofen, and naproxen from 2016 to 2021 using the National Poison Data System (NPDS) to see if these trends have continued. We extracted annual case counts of all suspected suicide attempts from intentional poisoning, and of suspected suicide attempts resulting in major effects or death, from the NPDS for non-prescription single ingredient adult formulation acetaminophen, non-prescription single ingredient adult formulation aspirin, single ingredient formulation ibuprofen, and single ingredient formulation naproxen. We enumerated the cases by year, age, and gender. Most cases of intentional self-poisoning within the review period involved acetaminophen and ibuprofen and the 13–19-year-olds constituted the highest proportion of intentional self-poisoning cases across age groups for all four analgesics. Cases involving females predominated cases involving males by 3:1 or greater. Here, the 13–19-year-old age group also represented the largest proportion of cases that resulted in major clinical effects or deaths. An increasing trend in suicide poisoning cases with acetaminophen and ibuprofen was observed in the 6-19-years age group and this trend appeared to exacerbate from 2020 to 2021 corresponding with the start of the COVID-19 pandemic period.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Aging behavior of an in-situ TiB{sub 2}/Al-Cu-Li-x matrix composite

Transmission electron microscopy, differential scanning calorimetry and hardness tests have been performed on an in-situ TiB{sub 2}/Al-3.3Cu-1.0Li-0.60Mg-0.40Ag-0.14Zr-0.13Si composite to study its aging behavior at 175 °C. A cubic phase suspected to be the σ (Al{sub 5}Cu{sub 6}Mg{sub 2}) phase or its variant is precipitated at all aging stages studied, and this phase is not typically observed in the Al-Cu-Li alloys. The primary hardening (aging for 3 h) phases consist of δ′ (Al{sub 3}Li), β′ (Al{sub 3}Zr) and the cubic phase. After aging for 18 h, all precipitates including T{sub 1} (Al{sub 2}CuLi), S (Al{sub 2}CuMg), θ′ (Al{sub 2}Cu), δ′, β′ and the cubic phase have appeared, and the formation of T{sub 1} and S results in a rapid increase in hardness. With prolonging of aging time, the apparent coarsening of T{sub 1} and S results in a decline in hardness. - Highlights: •The aging behavior of an in-situ TiB{sub 2}/Al-Cu-Li-x composite was studied. •A cubic phase suspected to be σ (Al{sub 5}Cu{sub 6}Mg{sub 2}) or its variant was precipitated. •The hardness change was dominated by the evolution of T{sub 1} (Al{sub 2}CuLi) and S (Al{sub 2}CuMg).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2012

VirtualToxLab — A platform for estimating the toxic potential of drugs, chemicals and natural products

The VirtualToxLab is an in silico technology for estimating the toxic potential (endocrine and metabolic disruption, some aspects of carcinogenicity and cardiotoxicity) of drugs, chemicals and natural products. The technology is based on an automated protocol that simulates and quantifies the binding of small molecules towards a series of proteins, known or suspected to trigger adverse effects. The toxic potential, a non-linear function ranging from 0.0 (none) to 1.0 (extreme), is derived from the individual binding affinities of a compound towards currently 16 target proteins: 10 nuclear receptors (androgen, estrogen α, estrogen β, glucocorticoid, liver X, mineralocorticoid, peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor γ, progesterone, thyroid α, and thyroid β), four members of the cytochrome P450 enzyme family (1A2, 2C9, 2D6, and 3A4), a cytosolic transcription factor (aryl hydrocarbon receptor) and a potassium ion channel (hERG). The interface to the technology allows building and uploading molecular structures, viewing and downloading results and, most importantly, rationalizing any prediction at the atomic level by interactively analyzing the binding mode of a compound with its target protein(s) in real-time 3D. The VirtualToxLab has been used to predict the toxic potential for over 2500 compounds: the results are posted on (http://www.virtualtoxlab.org). The free platform — the OpenVirtualToxLab — is accessible (in client–server mode) over the Internet. It is free of charge for universities, governmental agencies, regulatory bodies and non-profit organizations. -- Highlights: ► In silico technology for estimating the toxic potential of drugs and chemicals. ► Simulation of binding towards 16 proteins suspected to trigger adverse effects. ► Mechanistic interpretation and real-time 3D visualization. ► Accessible over the Internet. ► Free of charge for universities, governmental agencies, regulatory bodies and NPOs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Using population genetics to examine relationships of Dirofilaria immitis based on both macrocyclic lactone-resistance status and geography

Not provided.

Parasitology↗

DOE OSTI2021

Insights from Computational Studies on the Anisotropic Volume Change of Li x NiO 2 at High States of Charge (x < 0.25)

The need for high-capacity Li-ion battery cathodes has favored the increase of Ni content in commercial battery cells. However, at high states of charge (SOCs), Ni-rich materials undergo a phase transition and volume collapse with deleterious effects on battery performance. It is uncertain whether this drastic volume change is caused by the phase transition or not. To provide more insight into the volume-phase transition relationship in the high Ni cathode LixNiO 2 , we performed density functional theory calculations, along with molecular dynamics simulations using machine learning potentials to calculate the temperature- and composition-dependent free energy differences between the suspected phases at high SOCs (x < 0.25). Herein, we find that the calculated free energy difference between the suspected phases containing different oxygen stacking sequences is small at room temperature. Furthermore, we find that the collapse of the layered LiNiO 2 c-lattice parameter at high SOCs is mainly due to the electronic depletion of the oxygen sublattice and the lack of screening from positive Li ions. The interactions between adjacent oxygen ions across an empty Li layer (NiO 2 ) are largely controlled by van der Waals interactions and are in fact similar regardless of the oxygen stacking, which explains the negligible free energy differences between O1 and O3 stacking in NiO 2 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2019

Genomic insights into the 2016–2017 cholera epidemic in Yemen

Yemen is currently experiencing, to our knowledge, the largest cholera epidemic in recent history. The first cases were declared in September 2016, and over 1.1 million cases and 2,300 deaths have since been reported. Here in this paper we investigate the phylogenetic relationships, pathogenesis and determinants of antimicrobial resistance by sequencing the genomes of Vibrio cholerae isolates from the epidemic in Yemen and recent isolates from neighbouring regions. These 116 genomic sequences were placed within the phylogenetic context of a global collection of 1,087 isolates of the seventh pandemic V. cholerae serogroups O1 and O139 biotype El Tor. We show that the isolates from Yemen that were collected during the two epidemiological waves of the epidemic1—the first between 28 September 2016 and 23 April 2017 (25,839 suspected cases) and the second beginning on 24 April 2017 (more than 1 million suspected cases)—are V. cholerae serotype Ogawa isolates from a single sublineage of the seventh pandemic V. cholerae O1 El Tor (7PET) lineage. Using genomic approaches, we link the epidemic in Yemen to global radiations of pandemic V. cholerae and show that this sublineage originated from South Asia and that it caused outbreaks in East Africa before appearing in Yemen. Furthermore, we show that the isolates from Yemen are susceptible to several antibiotics that are commonly used to treat cholera and to polymyxin B, resistance to which is used as a marker of the El Tor biotype.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

ON THE DYNAMICS OF ULTRA COMPACT X-RAY BINARIES: 4U 1850-087, 4U 0513-40, AND M15 X-2

In this work, we extend our dynamical study of ultra compact X-ray binaries (UCXB) 4U 1820-30 from Prodan and Murray to three more UCXBs in globular clusters: 4U 1850-087, 4U 0513-40, and M15 X-2. These three UCXBs have orbital periods ≲ 20 minutes. Two of them, 4U 1850-087 and 4U 0513-40, have suspected luminosity variations of the order of ∼1 yr. There is insufficient observational data to make any statements regarding the long periodicity in the light curve of M15 X-2 at this point. The properties of these three systems are quite similar to 4U 1820-30, which prompt us to model their dynamics in the same manner. As in the case of 4U 1820-30, we interpret the suspected long periods as the period of small oscillations around a stable fixed point in the Kozai resonance. We provide a lower limit on the tidal dissipation factor Q, which is in agreement with results obtained for the case of 4U 1820-30.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Knowledge-based prediction of plan quality metrics in intracranial stereotactic radiosurgery

Purpose: The objective of this work was to develop a comprehensive knowledge-based methodology for predicting achievable dose–volume histograms (DVHs) and highly precise DVH-based quality metrics (QMs) in stereotactic radiosurgery/radiotherapy (SRS/SRT) plans. Accurate QM estimation can identify suboptimal treatment plans and provide target optimization objectives to standardize and improve treatment planning. Methods: Correlating observed dose as it relates to the geometric relationship of organs-at-risk (OARs) to planning target volumes (PTVs) yields mathematical models to predict achievable DVHs. In SRS, DVH-based QMs such as brain V{sub 10Gy} (volume receiving 10 Gy or more), gradient measure (GM), and conformity index (CI) are used to evaluate plan quality. This study encompasses 223 linear accelerator-based SRS/SRT treatment plans (SRS plans) using volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT), representing 95% of the institution’s VMAT radiosurgery load from the past four and a half years. Unfiltered models that use all available plans for the model training were built for each category with a stratification scheme based on target and OAR characteristics determined emergently through initial modeling process. Model predictive accuracy is measured by the mean and standard deviation of the difference between clinical and predicted QMs, δQM = QM{sub clin} − QM{sub pred}, and a coefficient of determination, R{sup 2}. For categories with a large number of plans, refined models are constructed by automatic elimination of suspected suboptimal plans from the training set. Using the refined model as a presumed achievable standard, potentially suboptimal plans are identified. Predictions of QM improvement are validated via standardized replanning of 20 suspected suboptimal plans based on dosimetric predictions. The significance of the QM improvement is evaluated using the Wilcoxon signed rank test. Results: The most accurate predictions are obtained when plans are stratified based on proximity to OARs and their PTV volume sizes. Volumes are categorized into small (V{sub PTV} < 2 cm{sup 3}), medium (2 cm{sup 3} < V{sub PTV} < 25 cm{sup 3}), and large (25 cm{sup 3} < V{sub PTV}). The unfiltered models demonstrate the ability to predict GMs to ∼1 mm and fractional brain V{sub 10Gy} to ∼25% for plans with large V{sub PTV} and critical OAR involvements. Increased accuracy and precision of QM predictions are obtained when high quality plans are selected for the model training. For the small and medium V{sub PTV} plans without critical OAR involvement, predictive ability was evaluated using the refined model. For training plans, the model predicted GM to an accuracy of 0.2 ± 0.3 mm and fractional brain V{sub 10Gy} to 0.04 ± 0.12, suggesting highly accurate predictive ability. For excluded plans, the average δGM was 1.1 mm and fractional brain V{sub 10Gy} was 0.20. These δQM are significantly greater than those of the model training plans (p < 0.001). For CI, predictions are close to clinical values and no significant difference was observed between the training and excluded plans (p = 0.19). Twenty outliers with δGM > 1.35 mm were identified as potentially suboptimal, and replanning these cases using predicted target objectives demonstrates significant improvements on QMs: on average, 1.1 mm reduction in GM (p < 0.001) and 23% reduction in brain V{sub 10Gy} (p < 0.001). After replanning, the difference of δGM distribution between the 20 replans and the refined model training plans was marginal. Conclusions: The results demonstrate the ability to predict SRS QMs precisely and to identify suboptimal plans. Furthermore, the knowledge-based DVH predictions were directly used as target optimization objectives and allowed a standardized planning process that bettered the clinically approved plans. Full clinical application of this methodology can improve consistency of SRS plan quality in a wide range of PTV volume and proximity to OARs and facilitate automated treatment planning for this critical treatment site.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Donor-Recipient Identification in Para- and Poly-phyletic Trees Under Alternative HIV-1 Transmission Hypotheses Using Approximate Bayesian Computation

Diversity of the founding population of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1) transmissions raises many important biological, clinical, and epidemiological issues. In up to 40% of sexual infections, there is clear evidence for multiple founding variants, which can influence the efficacy of putative prevention methods, and the reconstruction of epidemiologic histories. To infer who-infected-whom, and to compute the probability of alternative transmission scenarios while explicitly taking phylogenetic uncertainty into account, we created an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method based on a set of statistics measuring phylogenetic topology, branch lengths, and genetic diversity. We applied our method to a suspected heterosexual transmission case involving three individuals, showing a complex monophyletic-paraphyletic-polyphyletic phylogenetic topology. We detected that seven phylogenetic lineages had been transmitted between two of the individuals based on the available samples, implying that many more unsampled lineages had also been transmitted. Testing whether the lineages had been transmitted at one time or over some length of time suggested that an ongoing superinfection process over several years was most likely. While one individual was found unlinked to the other two, surprisingly, when evaluating two competing epidemiological priors, the donor of the two that did infect each other was not identified by the host root-label, and was also not the primary suspect in that transmission. This highlights that it is important to take epidemiological information into account when analyzing support for one transmission hypothesis over another, as results may be nonintuitive and sensitive to details about sampling dates relative to possible infection dates. Here, our study provides a formal inference framework to include information on infection and sampling times, and to investigate ancestral node-label states, transmission direction, transmitted genetic diversity, and frequency of transmission.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

SALSA3D: A Tomographic Model of Compressional Wave Slowness in the Earth’s Mantle for Improved Travel-Time Prediction and Travel-Time Prediction Uncertainty

The task of monitoring the Earth for nuclear explosions relies heavily on seismic data to detect, locate, and characterize suspected nuclear tests. In this study, motivated by the need to locate suspected explosions as accurately and precisely as possible, we developed a tomographic model of the compressional wave slowness in the Earth’s mantle with primary focus on the accuracy and precision of travel-time predictions for P and Pn ray paths through the model. Path-dependent travel-time prediction uncertainties are obtained by computing the full 3D model covariance matrix and then integrating slowness variance and covariance along ray paths from source to receiver. Path-dependent travel-time prediction uncertainties reflect the amount of seismic data that was used in tomography with very low values for paths represented by abundant data in the tomographic data set and very high values for paths through portions of the model that were poorly sampled by the tomography data set. The pattern of travel-time prediction uncertainty is a direct result of the off-diagonal terms of the model covariance matrix and underscores the importance of incorporating the full model covariance matrix in the determination of travel-time prediction uncertainty. In addition, the computed pattern of uncertainty differs significantly from that of 1D distance-dependent travel-time uncertainties computed using traditional methods, which are only appropriate for use with travel times computed through 1D velocity models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2011

Measurement of groove features and dimensions of the vertical test cathode and the choke joint of the superconducting electron gun cavity of the Energy Recovery LINAC

A testing program for the superconducting electron gun cavity that has been designed for the Energy Recovery LINAC is being planned. The goal of the testing program is to characterize the RF properties of the gun cavity at superconducting temperatures and, in particular, to study multipacting that is suspected to be occurring in the choke joint of the cavity where the vertical test cathode is inserted. The testing program will seek to understand the nature and cause of this multipacting and attempt to eliminate it, if possible, by supplying sufficient voltage to the cavity. These efforts are motivated by the multipacting issues that have been observed in the processing of the fine-grain niobium gun cavity. This cavity, which is being processed at Thomas Jefferson National Laboratory for Brookhaven, has encountered multipacting at a gradient of approximately 3 MV/m and, to date, has resisted efforts at elimination. Because of this problem, a testing program is being established here in C-AD that will use the large-grain niobium gun cavity that currently resides at Brookhaven and has been used for room-temperature measurements. The large-grain and fine-cavities are identical in every aspect of construction and only differ in niobium grain size. Thus, it is believed that testing and conditioning of the large-grain cavity should yield important insights about the fine-grain cavity. One element of this testing program involves characterizing the physical features of the choke joint of the cavity where the multipacting is believed to be occurring and, in particular the grooves of the joint. The configuration of the cavity and the vertical test cathode is shown in Figure 1. In addition, it is important to characterize the groove of the vertical test cathode. The grooved nature of these two components was specifically designed to prevent multipacting. However, it is suspected that, because of the chemical processing that the fine-grain gun cavity underwent along with the vertical test cathode, the geometry of these grooves was altered, presenting the possibility that multipacting may, in fact, be occurring in this area and contributing to the low gradients that have been observed in the fine-grain cavity. Therefore, the Survey and Alignment group in C-AD engaged in measurements of the cavity joint, shown in Figure 2 and the cathode weldment, shown in Figure 3 for the purpose of characterizing the grooves in both the cavity and the vertical test cathode and comparing the dimensions of the cathode with those of the prints supplied by Advanced Energy Systems (AES), the original designer and manufacturer of both the test cathode and the electron gun cavity, in preparation to have a new one manufactured. The goal was to ensure that the articles as built matched the design prints in preparation for manufacturing a new vertical test cathode. This report describes the data collected by the Survey group in these efforts. The endeavor was challenging for the group given the millimeter-scale dimensions of the grooves and the requirement for high precision.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2011

Measurement of Groove Features and Dimensions of the Vertical Test Cathode and the Choke Joint of the Superconducting Electron Gun Cavity of the Energy Recovery LINAC

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2011

Aging of Weapon Seals – An Update on Butyl O-ring Issues

During testing under the Enhanced Surveillance Campaign in 2001, preliminary data detected a previously unknown and potentially serious concern with recently procured butyl o-rings on several programs. All butyl o-rings molded from a proprietary formulation throughout the period circa 1999 through 2001 had less than a full cure. Engineering judgment was that under curing is detrimental and could possibly lead to sub-optimum performance or, in the worst case, premature seal failure. An aging study was undertaken to ensure that suspect o-rings installed in the stockpile will retain sufficient sealing force for a minimum ten-year service life. A new prediction model developed for this study indicates suspect o-rings do not need to be replaced before the ten-year service life. Long-term testing results are reported on a yearly basis to validate the prediction model. This report documents the aging results for the period September 2002 to January 2011.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2015

2012 Update to the Site Discharge Pollution Prevention Plan (Rev. 1): Los Alamos/Pueblo Watershed (Vol. 1)

One historical industrial activity area is associated with R001, R-SMA-0.5: Site C-00-020. Area of Concern (AOC) C-00-020 is a suspected mortar impact area located along the north valley wall of Rendija Canyon on General Services Administration (GSA) and U.S. Forest Service (USFS) land. The 30-acre site also includes a tributary of Rendija Canyon. Most of the site lies within the Santa Fe National Forest, except for a small area on the southeastern edge that is private property. AOC C-00-020 was suspected to be a former mortar-impact area because of a “U.S. Property—No Trespassing” sign and a nearly illegible bilingual sign posted in the area. The signs no longer remain. Extensive archival searches have revealed no documentation regarding the use of this site as a munitions impact area. In addition, no field evidence of operations (e.g., munitions debris [MD], munitions and explosives of concern [MEC], unexploded ordnance [UXO], or impact scars) has ever been found at AOC C-00-020. Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) facility investigation (RFI) activities conducted in 1993 included conducting an ordnance sweep followed by a geophysical sweep. No ordnance, MD, MEC, or UXO was located. In addition, no ordnance was found during the 2007 investigation or during the 2009 ordnance survey. The site is located within an area burned by the 2000 Cerro Grande fire. The stream channel that runs through the center of the site has been widened by flooding. Currently, there are burned and live trees on the steep slopes next to the stream. Ordnance surveys at the site resulted in no findings except for scrap metal such as bailing wire. The complete absence of ordnance and explosives waste (OEW) confirmed that the site was never used as an ordnance-impact area. In accordance with the approved investigation work plan, no further investigation was conducted at AOC C-00-020. The New Mexico Environment Department (NMED) concurred with the conclusion that no additional ordnance surveys need to be conducted at this site and issued a corrective action complete without controls for AOC C-00-020 on May 16, 2012. No industrial materials were historically managed at this Site; therefore, no potential contaminants are associated with the Site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2013

Statistical methods for the forensic analysis of striated tool marks

In forensics, fingerprints can be used to uniquely identify suspects in a crime. Similarly, a tool mark left at a crime scene can be used to identify the tool that was used. However, the current practice of identifying matching tool marks involves visual inspection of marks by forensic experts which can be a very subjective process. As a result, declared matches are often successfully challenged in court, so law enforcement agencies are particularly interested in encouraging research in more objective approaches. Our analysis is based on comparisons of profilometry data, essentially depth contours of a tool mark surface taken along a linear path. In current practice, for stronger support of a match or non-match, multiple marks are made in the lab under the same conditions by the suspect tool. We propose the use of a likelihood ratio test to analyze the difference between a sample of comparisons of lab tool marks to a field tool mark, against a sample of comparisons of two lab tool marks. Chumbley et al. (2010) point out that the angle of incidence between the tool and the marked surface can have a substantial impact on the tool mark and on the effectiveness of both manual and algorithmic matching procedures. To better address this problem, we describe how the analysis can be enhanced to model the effect of tool angle and allow for angle estimation for a tool mark left at a crime scene. With sufficient development, such methods may lead to more defensible forensic analyses.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗