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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Sequential Fracture Activation and Stress Evolution During EGS Stimulation at Utah FORGE Revealed by Waveform Cross‐Correlation

Mapping fracture networks in Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) is essential for optimizing reservoir performance, yet complex fracture evolution during stimulation remains difficult to resolve. This study examines the evolution of microseismicity and fracture networks during stage 3 of the 2022 EGS stimulation at the Utah Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy site. We map the fracture network represented by 20 clusters of seismic events identified by waveform similarities with cross-correlation. We characterize their geometric properties such as strike, dip, length, and width, and analyze the time evolution of activated fractures. The results reveal a systematic fracture evolution: early activation of pre-existing natural fractures, complex network development during peak injection, and continued activation of less favorably oriented fractures post-injection. Magnitude calibration using the Principal Component Analysis of cross-correlated waveforms improves relative amplitude measurements, refining estimations of the Gutenberg-Richter b-values with spatial variations in b-values suggesting stress re-distribution across the stimulated area. Analysis of the stress state of selected fractures further shows that fractures requiring higher excess pore pressure primarily activate at the end of injection and post-injection, highlighting stress transfer due to pore pressure as a dominant triggering mechanism. These findings provide insights into fracture propagation, stress evolution, and seismic hazard assessment in EGS reservoirs.

Asirifi, Richard [Texas A & M Univ., College Stati↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probing the evolution of fault properties during the seismic cycle with deep learning

We use seismic waves that pass through the hypocentral region of the 2016 M6.5 Norcia earthquake together with Deep Learning (DL) to distinguish between foreshocks, aftershocks and time-to-failure (TTF). Binary and N-class models defined by TTF correctly identify seismograms in test with > 90% accuracy. We use raw seismic records as input to a 7 layer CNN model to perform the classification. Here we show that DL models successfully distinguish seismic waves pre/post mainshock in accord with lab and theoretical expectations of progressive changes in crack density prior to abrupt change at failure and gradual postseismic recovery. Performance is lower for band-pass filtered seismograms (below 10 Hz) suggesting that DL models learn from the evolution of subtle changes in elastic wave attenuation. Tests to verify that our results indeed provide a proxy for fault properties included DL models trained with the wrong mainshock time and those using seismic waves far from the Norcia mainshock; both show degraded performance. Our results demonstrate that DL models have the potential to track the evolution of fault zone properties during the seismic cycle. If this result is generalizable it could improve earthquake early warning and seismic hazard analysis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Operational and geological controls of coupled poroelastic stressing and pore-pressure accumulation along faults: Induced earthquakes in Pohang, South Korea

Coupled poroelastic stressing and pore-pressure accumulation along pre-existing faults in deep basement contribute to recent occurrence of seismic events at subsurface energy exploration sites. Our coupled fluid-flow and geomechanical model describes the physical processes inducing seismicity corresponding to the sequential stimulation operations in Pohang, South Korea. Simulation results show that prolonged accumulation of poroelastic energy and pore pressure along a fault can nucleate seismic events larger than M w 3 even after terminating well operations. In particular the possibility of large seismic events can be increased by multiple-well operations with alternate injection and extraction that can enhance the degree of pore-pressure diffusion and subsequent stress transfer through a rigid and low-permeability rock to the fault. This study demonstrates that the proper mechanistic model and optimal well operations need to be accounted for to mitigate unexpected seismic hazards in the presence of the site-specific uncertainty such as hidden/undetected faults and stress regime.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

MODELING A SPENT NUCLEAR FUEL CASK SEISMIC TEST

The US Department of Energy Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) program is planning to conduct a series of full-scale shake table tests to simulate hypothetical earthquake conditions and record the response of surrogate spent nuclear fuel (SNF) assemblies in a canister dry storage system mockup. The shake table motions will represent a range of hypothetical earthquake conditions at hypothetical locations in the continental US to generally define the range of mechanical loads that SNF can be expected to experience during extended dry storage periods. The earthquake conditions will represent seismic hazards in the 2,000-to-20,000-year return period range. The test will use instrumented pressurized water reactor fuel assemblies with surrogate mass inside the fuel rods instead of radioactive fuel pellets. Dummy assemblies with similar mass and dimensions to actual fuel assemblies will occupy the rest of the fuel assembly locations in a SNF canister that holds 32 fuel assemblies. The canister will be located inside a mockup vertical concrete cask. Instrumentation will record the motion of the major components of the complex dynamic system, and strain gauges will be used to record the cladding strain at select locations. Preparations for the test require modeling predictions to identify the range of response of the system and to help select specific earthquake cases to be simulated on the shake table from a large set of potential cases. This paper describes the pretest nonlinear finite element modeling efforts that have been completed to date, including cask system level modeling and fuel assembly modeling in LS-DYNA. The cask system level models are critical for anticipating sliding or tipping of an unanchored cask during the test. The fuel assembly model is needed to estimate the range of cladding strain response and fuel assembly structural response to be expected during the test and cladding strain measurements will be key metrics for model validation and the development of modeling best practices after the test is concluded.

Klymyshyn, Nicholas A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pretest Modeling A Spent Nuclear Fuel Seismic Shake Test

The U.S. Department of Energy Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) program is planning to conduct a series of full-scale shake table tests to simulate hypothetical earthquake conditions and record the response of surrogate spent nuclear fuel (SNF) assemblies in a dry canister storage system mockup. The shake table motions will represent a range of hypothetical earthquake conditions at hypothetical locations in the continental U.S. to generally define the range of mechanical loads that SNF can be expected to experience during extended dry storage periods. This paper describes the pretest predictions made with LS-DYNA models of the mockup storage systems. The test will use two dry storage system configurations, a mockup vertical concrete cask (VCC) and a mockup horizontal storage module (HSM). The test will use a production-quality canister and basket. Within the canister will be four instrumented fuel assemblies with fuel rods containing surrogate mass and 28 instrumented dummy assemblies that are intended to match the mass and outer dimension of a fuel assembly. The finite element models include models of the VCC and HSM on the shake table to calculate the system level dynamic responses and separate single fuel assembly models to calculate stress and strain in fuel assembly components. Both types of models include nonlinear behavior like rod-to-rod contact and the ability for VCC’s to rock and slide. This paper presents the expected response of the VCC, HSM, and fuel assemblies to the shake table testing that is planned to start in April of 2024. The earthquake conditions represent seismic hazards in the 2,000-to-20,000-year return period range. The test data is expected to confirm the expectation that fuel rod cladding will remain intact, fuel assembly structural components like guide tubes will remain intact, and no significant VCC sliding or tipping will occur in the range of conditions to be tested with the shake table.

Klymyshyn, Nicholas A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

An open-access simulated earthquake ground-motion database for an M7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region

Comprehensive understanding of earthquake ground motions, particularly in the near-fault region of large-magnitude events, is limited by gaps in strong-motion data. This challenge is prominent in areas with high seismic hazard but infrequent large earthquakes where data is sparse and difficult to interpret. These data limitations lead to uncertainties in the development of site-specific ground motions, which are crucial for engineering risk assessments. To address these challenges, physics-based regional-scale ground-motion simulations have been developed. With the emergence of exaflop-scale computing ecosystems, it is now possible to simulate regional earthquake processes at unprecedented fidelity and generate the large number of fault rupture realizations necessary to characterize both intra- and inter-event ground-motion variability. This article introduces a new database of simulated earthquake ground motions, created for applications in earthquake engineering, earthquake planning, and emergency response. The inaugural version of the database features simulated ground motions for a magnitude 7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region (SFBR), using the EarthQuake SIMulation (EQSIM) simulation framework and the Graves–Pitarka kinematic rupture model. The aim is to provide high-fidelity, spatially dense, three-component motions generated on the Department of Energy’s (DOE) newest generation of graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated supercomputers. These motions are being made openly available to the engineering, scientific, and disaster planning communities. In addition, this work develops protocols for the efficient dissemination of these large data sets and emphasizes community engagement to build confidence in their application. This article discusses the methodology behind the data, underlying software verification and validation, scalable data management, and a user interface for data access. The goal is to facilitate widespread use and elicit expert feedback to maximize the utility and exploitation of simulated motions. While the initial focus is on the San Francisco Region, simulations for additional regions will be added as the DOE program progresses.

Simulated ground-motion database↗
DOE OSTI2023

Utah FORGE 5-2428: Fracture Permeability Impact on Reservoir Stress and Seismic Slip Behavior - Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Fracture Permeability Impact on Seismic Slip Behavior project by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, presented by Dr. Kayla A. Kroll. The project's objective is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on September 8, 2023. The workshop provided a valuable opportunity to explore the progress made in each of the 17 Research and Development projects funded under Solicitation 2020-1 which aim to enhance our understanding of the crucial factors influencing the development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) reservoirs and resources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wasatch Fault Structure from Machine Learning Arrival Times and High-Precision Earthquake Locations

Abstract On 18 March 2020, a magnitude 5.7 earthquake hit the Salt Lake valley in the state of Utah, United States. Using a dense geophone deployment and machine learning (ML), an additional several thousand events were detected and located. Currently, both the mainshock and the majority of the aftershocks are suspected to have occurred on or near a deeper portion of the Salt Lake segment of the Wasatch fault—part of a large range-bounding fault system thought to be capable of generating an Mw 7.2 earthquake. However, a small subset of aftershocks may have occurred on a portion of the more steeply, eastward dipping, and poorly understood West Valley fault. Unfortunately, the catalog locations and lack of focal mechanisms for this subset of aftershocks provide only a crude constraint on the true fault structure. To better illuminate fault structure, we relocate the ML-generated catalog with a range of magnitudes from −2 to 4.6, using: (1) NonLinLoc, a nonlinear location algorithm, (2) source-specific station terms, and (3) waveform coherence. We further compute first-motion focal mechanisms for 68 events. Results of the relocation suggest a simpler, minimally listric Wasatch fault geometry, contrary to what has been previously proposed. We also find that analysis of the focal mechanisms and waveform similarity indicates minimal event similarity throughout the Magna sequence, suggesting a highly complex and heterogeneous rupture zone, as opposed to rupture on a single plane. These findings suggest an increased seismic hazard due to the overall shallowness of the earthquake sequence and highly varied rupture mechanisms.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of Site Amplifications Using Ambient-Noise-Derived Shallow Velocity Structures Under a Dense Array in Oklahoma

The shear-wave velocity (V S ) structure plays an important role in characterizing site amplification. The Large-n Seismic Survey in Oklahoma (LASSO; 1820 stations) revealed large vertical ground-motion variability in a 25 km × 32 km area in northern Oklahoma. The LASSO array has a relatively simple and flat topography, typical in a sedimentary basin environment in the central United States. In this study, we use the dense array to investigate the velocity structure under the LASSO array and how vertical ground motions relate to the shallow-to-deep structures. We extract the fundamental-mode Rayleigh wave by cross-correlating one month of ambient noise (0.7–5 Hz). We use double-beamforming to measure the group and phase velocities and anisotropy. By jointly inverting the group and phase velocities, we obtain the V S structure. Here, we observe correlations between V S at depths of 0.1–1.5 km and vertical ground motions using sites on the stiffer Permian formations. The shallow Quaternary alluvium and terrace deposits can amplify vertical ground motions by a factor of 2–4.5 between 2 and 25 Hz and attenuate signals above 25 Hz. We use 1D V S profiles to simulate the SV-wave transfer functions. An average V S of 250 m/s in the upper 20–40 m may cause the observed amplification between 2 and 40 Hz. V S estimated by topographic slopes cannot predict the relative amplification. Our results highlight the large variability of site-dependent ground motion in a small local region and the importance of characterizing shallow structures to estimate seismic hazards. Small thickness variations of the shallow formation can significantly change the resonance amplitude and frequency, which likely reduces the coherency of the Rayleigh waves extracted from ambient noise.

Chang, Hilary [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using a 1D Radially Symmetric Coda Envelope Model for Robust Moment Magnitude ( M w ) Estimation in Iraq’s Tectonically Diverse Zones

Robust estimation of moment magnitude (M w ) can be challenging for Iraq due to the strong lateral heterogeneity across diverse tectonic zones. We aim to improve moment magnitude estimation by investigating the reliability of using a 1D coda envelope model in diverse tectonic zones of different lateral effects and offer a way forward for reliable estimates of M w for small events that are difficult to waveform model. Iraq comprises two main tectonic zones: (1) the Outer platform, consisting of the northwestern Zagros fold-thrust belt and the Mesopotamian foredeep, and (2) the Inner Arabian platform which is overlain by the Iraqi desert. A simple 1D coda envelope model was used because coda waves have a low sensitivity to the source and path heterogeneity. Three separate coda calibrations were conducted to investigate the robustness of a single 1D calibration to fit the country: Whole-region calibration, Zagros calibration, and Mesopotamia calibration. In the whole-region calibration, we used stations from both the Zagros and Mesopotamia zones. In the two other calibration models, we used only stations that were in those particular zones. Ground-truth reference spectra derived from the coda spectral ratio method were used to constrain high-frequency site terms. There was no drastic difference when comparing the moment magnitudes calculated from the waveform modeling and the three calibration models. The results show that the 1D coda envelope model is a reliable method even for a region with diverse tectonic zones. Therefore, we recommend using the whole-region calibration model for moment magnitude estimation that provides more complete path coverage and avoids biases introduced by path correction failures. The proposed calibration is a fundamental step in updating the comprehensive earthquake catalog and probabilistic seismic hazard assessments for Iraq.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Nonergodic Ground-Motion Model for the San Francisco Bay Area for Small-Magnitude Earthquakes

ABSTRACT Recently, generative models have become a computationally efficient alternative to physics-based numerical simulations of ground motions. Neural networks can learn from existing ground-motion data to generate unobserved ground-motion data at new source and site locations. A key challenge with generative models is ensuring that predicted ground motions remain within a physically realistic range. For this purpose, we developed an empirical, nonergodic ground-motion model (GMM) for small-magnitude earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area based on about 5000 recordings per component for Mw ≤ 4 earthquakes. The nonergodic GMM predicts spatially varying median source, site, and path effects for both the Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) and the Fourier phase derivative (a proxy for duration), as well as the corresponding epistemic uncertainty for each term. For FAS, our model shows above-average source and site effects in the western part of the region and below-average effects in the eastern part, with regional effects exhibiting larger spatial correlation lengths with increasing frequency. For duration, the source term is negligible for small-magnitude earthquakes, and the site term leads to site-specific variations up to 5 s. Path effects for FAS and duration depend on the source–site pair and are extrapolated spatially using recent methods for path-effect modeling. The aleatory variability of the within-site within-path residuals is similar to the variability found in previous studies for other regions. The nonergodic model provides two key contributions: first, median adjustment terms that are transferable to larger magnitude earthquakes, further reducing aleatory variability in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis; second, region-specific criteria for validating machine learning-based ground-motion generators to evaluate whether synthetic ground motions exhibit physically realistic source, site, and path effects.

Lacour, Maxime↗
DOE OSTI2024

Compilation of a Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog and Relocations in the Caucasus Region

Instrumental seismic monitoring has a long history in the Caucasus and started in 1899 when the first seismograph was installed in Tbilisi, Georgia. Much of the analog paper records from this time period are preserved in the Tbilisi archives because Georgia served as the regional data center. In the 1990s, due to the collapse of the Soviet Union and the political turmoil in the region, the analog networks and the communication between the newly formed national networks deteriorated. In Georgia, for the next 13 yr, the seismic network coverage was poor until the 2002 Tbilisi earthquake. Following this earthquake, the first permanent digital seismic station in Georgia was established in Tbilisi in 2003. The digital era progressively improved the ability to collect and archive data and today more than a hundred broadband seismic stations (including temporary arrays) are operating in the southern Caucasus. Until recently, the region lacked a coordinated effort to catalog all analog and digital era data collected by different countries into a single repository. As a result of collaboration between Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the Ilia State University, and the Republican Seismic Survey Center of Azerbaijan, a comprehensive earthquake catalog was compiled for the Caucasus and neighboring areas as part of a broader probabilistic seismic hazard assessment project. Here this project digitized Soviet-era paper bulletins, compiled a unified earthquake catalog from regional bulletins, developed 1D reference velocity model, and used it to relocate the events. The final catalog contains 16,963 events with magnitudes 3.7 and above, bringing together all the available data sets in the Caucasus region from 1900 to 2015, significantly improving locations, and generating the most complete earthquake catalog in the region, temporally and geographically.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applying Machine Learning and Bayesian Inference to Identify and Locate Moving Anthropogenic Sources Using Distributed Acoustic Sensing Data

Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) systems, which use existing telecommunication fibers, offer high‐resolution capabilities ideal for recording anthropogenic sources. However, the complexity of urban environments and the large amount of data recorded by DAS require automated methods to efficiently detect and categorize anthropogenic sources. Here, we evaluate how well three machine learning models (k‐nearest neighbor [k‐NN], convolutional neural networks, and recurrent‐convolutional neural networks) can identify various anthropogenic sources recorded by DAS. Our findings reveal that both k‐NN and neural network methods perform well in high signal‐to‐noise ratio (SNR) settings. However, their accuracy decreases at SNRs <4. We also use Kalman filtering, a form of Bayesian inference, on backprojected locations of these sources to recover locations that generally fall within standard smartphone Global Positioning System errors. By combining machine learning and Kalman filter results, we calculate a multidimensional model of moving anthropogenic sources. These results demonstrate the potential of DAS data in urban seismology for accurately identifying and locating such sources. Depending on the research objectives, these sources can be further studied or filtered out to improve the quality of seismic data for earthquake studies. Such methods provide a valuable tool for urban seismology and seismic hazard analysis.

Luckie, Thomas William [Sandia National Laboratori↗
DOE OSTI2022

Report on Depth-Dependent Q from Frequency-Dependent Lg Q

As a phase that travels through the crustal waveguide, Lg samples the velocity and attenuation structure of the crust. We have developed methods (Pasyanos et al., 2009a; Pasyanos et al., 2009b) to estimate Qp and Qs of the crust and upper mantle from the amplitudes of regional phases, and have applied it to a number of regions around the world, and over a broad frequency band (0.5 - 10 Hz). In prior attenuation modeling, Lg phase amplitudes are able to effectively distinguish the high Q (low attenuation) of old stable cratonic crust from the low Q (high attenuation) of more recently active tectonic regions. For a variety of purposes (e.g. waveform modeling, seismic hazard, etc.), it is useful to have more information on the depth-dependence of the Q structure in the crust. One obvious candidate for doing this is using the frequency-dependence information of Lg Q, in the manner of surface waves. Unfortunately, however, Lg samples the whole of the crust without much differentiation with respect to frequency that is characteristic of fundamental mode surface waves. Lg is generally thought to be the sum of supercritically reflected S-waves trapped in the crustal waveguide (e.g. Xie and Lay, 1994). The phase can also be modeled as a superposition of surface waves. At lower frequencies, it is primarily composed of fundamental and low-order surface waves, while at higher frequencies, it is comprised purely of many high-order surface waves. The low-order surface waves that comprise Lg in low frequency bands (< 1 Hz) are preferentially sensitive to shallow earth structure, such as sedimentary basins and upper crust, while high-order surface waves have a more homogenized sensitivity to the whole crust. Furthermore, at the lower frequencies, we might expect to see some differentiation in the sensitivity between early Lg (herein referred to as Lg1) and late Lg (referred to as Lg2) where the latter is comprised of lower-order surface waves and, hence, shallower structure. Therefore, we might expect to see the signature of shallow features, primarily the lower Q of sediments as compared to crystalline crust, at lower frequencies and in later arriving Lg amplitudes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Research Introduction [Slides]

In the topic of Reverse Time Imaging, we proposed a new IC to reduce computation cost but reserve image resolution for distributed sensor networks. For Induced Seismicity in Oklahoma, we analyzed fault stress state analysis at state scale, and we applied machine learning techniques to polarity picking and seismicity rate forecasting. The results provide better understanding of fault properties, stress field, and the relationships among fault, stress state, injections, and potential seismic hazards. Lastly, for Microseismic Monitoring, we detected and located 770 low-frequency events (5-50 Hz): (1) Shallow events are highly clustered, consistent with the pathway from injection well 13-10A to monitoring well; moment tensor inversion shows dominant tensile cracking; (2) Deep events are scattered and show migration pattern to the basement; moment tensors show that most events are shear cracks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

5-2428: Coupled Investigation of Fracture Permeability Impact on Reservoir Stress and Seismic Slip Behavior [Slides]

Our goal is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that also includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. We will integrate experimental and modelling approaches to reduce parameter uncertainty and better integrate friction constitutive laws for faults to improve our ability to predict and mitigate seismic hazard at Utah FORGE and future EGS sites. We propose a novel approach that incorporates 3D physics-based Earthquake simulations in THMC models, using lab measurements of friction parameters, herein referred to as “THMC+E” models. These simulations will enable exploration of various circumstances that may hinder EGS success and develop mitigation strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulation of Physics-Based 0-10Hz Strong Motion Using High Performance Computing Supporting Refinements to Regional Ground Motion Models for the Central Eastern US

In collaboration with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) the LLNL has developed a computationally efficient simulation platform designed to perform physics-based ground motion simulations for crustal earthquakes in the Stable Continental Regions of Central and Eastern US (CEUS), using high-performance computing. The main objective of the earthquake simulations was to use synthetic ground motion to provide constrains to refinements of existing ergodic Ground Motion Models (GMMs), for large magnitude earthquakes and near-fault distances, for which these models are less reliable. Physics-based broadband (0-10Hz) ground motion simulations were used to estimate the near-fault ground motion amplitudes and within event and between-event variabilities associated with fault rupture characteristics. In our simulations we used a 3D regional velocity model that was based on Saikia’s 1D velocity model (1994). In simulations performed during the first stage of this project the Saikia’s velocity model demonstrated better performance in modelling high frequency regional wave propagation for the CEUS region recorded during the Mw5.0 November 7, 2016, Cushing Oklahoma (Taylor et al., 2017), and Mw5.8 September 3, 2016, Pawnee Oklahoma earthquakes. The proposed regional 3D model includes random perturbations to the 1D background model using the stochastic scheme of Pitarka and Mellors (2021). In addition, validation analysis of the rupture generator and regional wave propagation models, using comparisons with different GMMs for Mw6.5 and Mw7.0 scenario earthquakes in the CEUS region resulted in a very good match between the simulated and empirical ground motion models. For the purposes of seismic hazard assessment at the existing and planned nuclear power plants, NRC is interested in studies aimed at improving the current ground motion models (GMM) for both Stable Continental Regions (SCR) in the Central and Eastern US and Active Crustal Regions (ACR) in the Western US. Due to lack of recorded data, these improvements require synthetic data for short fault distances and large magnitude earthquakes for which the existing recorded data is not enough to uniquely constrain the GMMs. The need for simulations and strong motion data is especially critical for the CEUS region where we do not have recorded data from potentially large damaging earthquakes with moment magnitudes 6.0 and higher. In this the project, we focused on 10Hz simulations of Mw7.0 scenario earthquakes with strike slip and thrust faulting mechanisms. We used more than 50 Mw7.0 earthquake rupture scenarios to investigate the ground motion uncertainty due to unknown earthquake rupture parameters, in particular, the slip distribution, rupture velocity, and faulting mechanism, and their implication on ground motion amplification due to forward rupture directivity effects.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Activating a Natural Fault Zone in the Swiss Alps

One major hurdle for understanding earthquake mechanics are observational limitations. Important phenomena like strain localisation, fault dilation, and fault healing are readily studied in rock mechanical laboratory experiments and with numerical models. At the scale of natural earthquakes, however, these phenomena are often unresolvable, even by state-of-the-art observatories. To overcome this limitation, we are currently building the Earthquake Physics Testbed at the Bedretto Underground Laboratory for Geosciences and Geoenergies (BedrettoLab), an experimental testbed where we can activate an extensively instrumented natural fault zone via hydraulic stimulation. The goal of the Fault Activation and Earthquake Rupture (FEAR) project is to induce earthquakes of up to Mw~1.0 on this exceptionally well characterised and instrumented fault zone. Here we summarize the main scientific goals and current FEAR project status, and present first results from conducted experiments. We discuss how this large-scale experimental approach may allow us to tackle both fundamental science as well as practical questions on earthquake physics, induced seismicity and seismic hazard.

Meier, Men-Andrin↗