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DOE OSTI2022

Effect of applied potential on metal surfaces: Surface energy, Wulff shape and charge distribution

Here we use grand canonical density functional theory to predict the surface energies, Wulff shapes, charge distributions and catalytically active sites of different metal surfaces under electrochemical conditions. We propose a method for computing surface energies from grand canonical density functional theory (GC-DFT) calculations of periodic slab models and use it to compute the surface energies of the facets of Pt, Cu, and Ag crystals to predict their Wulff shapes under electrochemical conditions. GC-DFT predicts that, for the pure metals studied, solvation only slightly affects the Wulff shape while applied potentials considerably affect the surface energies and corresponding Wulff shapes. We used Bader charge analysis of GC-DFT computed electron densities to investigate the effect of applied potential on the distribution of electron density over the atoms of the surfaces of Pt, Cu, Ag, and the 75–25 Ag-Pt and Au-Ni alloys. This analysis shows that, under an applied potential, the electron density is unevenly distributed over the surface atoms and that the charges of atoms more exposed to solvent are more sensitive to bias. Our results show that the most sensitive atom to bias can be used to identify the most favorable adsorption site and thus, the active sites of electrochemical reactions, which is computationally less demanding than calculating the adsorption energies on all possible adsorption sites.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effect of penetrant–polymer interactions and shape on the motion of molecular penetrants in dense polymer networks

The diffusion of dilute molecular penetrants within polymers plays a crucial role in the advancement of material engineering for applications such as coatings and membrane separations. The potential of highly cross-linked polymer networks in these applications stems from their capacity to adjust the size and shape selectivity through subtle changes in network structures. In this paper, we use molecular dynamics simulation to understand the role of penetrant shape (aspect ratios) and its interaction with polymer networks on its diffusivity. We characterize both local penetrant hopping and the long-time diffusive motion for penetrants and consider different aspect ratios and penetrant–network interaction strengths at a variety of cross-link densities and temperatures. The shape affects the coupling of penetrant motion to the cross-link density- and temperature-dependent structural relaxation of networks and also affects the way a penetrant experiences the confinement from the network meshes. The attractive interaction between the penetrant and network primarily affects the former since only the system of dilute limit is of present interest. These results offer fundamental insights into the intricate interplay between penetrant characteristics and polymer network properties and also suggest future directions for manipulating polymer design to enhance the separation efficiency.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2020

Elastic moduli of high-density, sintered monoliths of yttrium dihydride

Yttrium dihydride has been considered as potential nuclear reactor moderator for micro-reactors operating in the thermal energy spectrum due to their ability to retain hydrogen to high temperatures while having a relatively low impact on neutron economy. Despite these advantages, it is difficult to prepare yttrium dihydride in high-density, near net-shape monoliths for moderator applications due to volume expansion upon hydriding and the pyrophoric nature of the material. In this work, high-density monoliths of yttrium dihydride were prepared by direct hydriding and using powder metallurgical methods. Resonant ultrasound spectroscopy was used to measure the elastic moduli of the sintered monoliths, while nanoindentation was used to determine the Young’s modulus and hardness of the directly-hydrided yttrium and the sintered monoliths. Single crystal elastic constants and related properties of yttrium dihydride were also determined using density functional theory (DFT) for comparison. We report mechanical properties of materials produced by both methods were observed to be consistent with the values from literature for yttrium dihydride. Due to the novelty of producing yttrium dihydride by powder metallurgy, this result indicated that the monoliths produced by powder metallurgy were of high quality. To that end, powder metallurgy is believed to be a viable method for large-scale production of yttrium dihydride monoliths for nuclear reactor moderator applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Large bandgap observed on the surfaces of EuZn 2 As 2 single crystals

EuM 2 As 2 (M = Zn, Cd, In, Sn etc.) is an excellent material system for studying magnetism-tuned topological properties. However, discrepancies exist between experimental data and theoretical calculations regarding the bulk and surface bandgaps. In this work, cleaved EuZn 2 As 2 crystals are studied using scanning tunneling microscopy/spectroscopy and density functional theory calculations. Triangular-shaped defect-induced modifications in the local density of states help distinguish between Eu-terminated and AsZn-terminated surfaces. While large bandgaps (~1.5 eV at 77 K) are observed on both pristine surfaces, the bandgap size is found to be highly sensitive to local heterogeneity, tending to decrease. By combining experimental observations with theoretical simulations, we conclude that the reduced bandgap in heterogeneous regions arises from Zn vacancies and/or substitution by As atoms, both impacting greater in the Eu surface electronic properties than those in the AsZn surface. This demonstrates the intimate relationship between the electronic structure and magnetism in EuZn 2 As 2 .

interfaces↗

DOE OSTI2023

Knots are not for naught: Design, properties, and topology of hierarchical intertwined microarchitected materials

Lightweight and tough engineered materials are often designed with three-dimensional hierarchy and interconnected structural members whose junctions are detrimental to their performance because they serve as stress concentrations for damage accumulation and lower mechanical resilience. We introduce a previously unexplored class of architected materials, whose components are interwoven and contain no junctions, and incorporate micro-knots as building blocks within these hierarchical networks. Tensile experiments, which show close quantitative agreements with an analytical model for overhand knots, reveal that knot topology allows a new regime of deformation capable of shape retention, leading to a ~92% increase in absorbed energy and an up to ~107% increase in failure strain compared to woven structures, along with an up to ~11% increase in specific energy density compared to topologically similar monolithic lattices. Our exploration unlocks knotting and frictional contact to create highly extensible low-density materials with tunable shape reconfiguration and energy absorption capabilities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing the negative triangularity reactor core operating space with integrated modeling

Negative triangularity (NT) has received renewed interest as a fusion reactor regime due to its beneficial power-handling properties, including low scrape-off layer power and a larger divertor wetted area that facilitates simple divertor integration. NT experiments have also demonstrated core performance on par with positive triangularity (PT) high confinement mode (H-mode) without edge-localized modes (ELMs), encouraging further study of an NT reactor core. In this work, we use integrated modeling to scope the operating space around two NT reactor strategies. The first is the high-field, compact fusion pilot plant concept Modular, Adjustable, NT ARC (MANTA) and the second is a low field, high aspect ratio concept based on work by Medvedev et al. By integrating equilibrium, core transport, and edge ballooning instability models, we establish a range of operating points with less than 50 MW scrape-off layer power and fusion power comparable to PT H-mode reactor concepts. Heating and seeded impurities are leveraged to accomplish the same fusion performance and scrape-off layer exhaust power for various pressure edge boundary conditions. Scans over these pressure edge conditions accommodate any current uncertainty of the properties of the NT edge and show that the performance of an NT reactor will be extremely dependent on the edge pressure. The high-field case is found to enable lower scrape-off layer power because it is capable of reaching high fusion powers at a relatively compact size, which allows increased separatrix density without exceeding the Greenwald density limit. Adjustments in NT shaping exhibit small changes in fusion power, with an increase in fusion power density seen at weaker NT. Infinite-n ballooning instability models indicate that an NT reactor core can reach fusion powers comparable to leading PT H-mode reactor concepts while remaining ballooning-stable. Seeded krypton is leveraged to further lower scrape-off layer power since NT does not have a requirement to remain in H-mode while still maintaining high confinement. We contextualize the NT reactor operating space by comparing to popular PT H-mode reactor concepts, and find that NT exhibits competitive ELM-free performance with these concepts for a variety of edge conditions while maintaining relatively low scrape-off layer power.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Revisiting the Hail Radar Reflectivity–Kinetic Energy Flux Relation by Combining T-Matrix and Discrete Dipole Approximation Calculations to Size Distribution Observations

The retrieval of hail kinetic energy with weather radars or its simulation in numerical models is challenging because of the shape complexity and variable density of hailstones. We combine 3D scans of individual hailstones with measurements of the particle size distributions (PSD) and T-matrix calculations to understand how hail reflectivity Z changes when approximating hailstones as spheroids, as compared to the realistic shapes obtained by 3D scanning technology. Additionally, recent terminal velocity relations are used to compare Z to the hail kinetic energy flux E ˙ . We parameterize the hail backscattering cross sections at L, S, C, and X bands as a function of size between 0.5 and 5.0 cm, matching the range of the observed PSDs. The scattering calculations use the T-matrix method for size parameters below 1.0 and the discrete dipole approximation (DDA) method otherwise. The DDA calculations are done for 48 digital models of realistic hailstones of sizes between 1 and 5 cm. The DDA cross sections are calculated for multiple orientations and averaged assuming a fully random orientation distribution to provide a single value per hailstone. The T-matrix reflectivity assuming solid ice spheres presents negligible differences to DDA results for size parameters below 1.0. Therefore, T matrix was used to fill in the gaps left by the DDA calculations. The results are mapped to the same size bins of the observed PSDs, allowing the calculation of the radar reflectivity. This is then correlated to E ˙ , allowing a potential improvement of past retrieval methods of E ˙ from Z in multiple wavelengths.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

High Flux Isotope Reactor Low-Enriched Uranium Low Density Silicide Fuel Design Parameters

High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU) conversion activities are ongoing as part of the Department of Energy (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)’s nuclear nonproliferation mission. Design activities studying the conversion of HFIR from HEU to LEU fuel explored different fuel design features and shapes with a low density uranium-silicide dispersion (U 3 Si 2 -Al) fuel, which has a uranium density of 4.8 gU/cm 3 . The goal of these studies is to generate several HFIR LEU fuel designs of varying fuel fabrication complexity that meet the current HEU performance metrics and safety requirements. The documented designs will serve as references for fuel fabrication and qualification activities. Recent advancements in modeling and simulation tools enable quick prototyping of fuel designs. Shift, a Monte Carlo neutron transport and depletion tool optimized for high-performance computing (HPC) architectures, is used for efficient fuel cycle and performance metrics calculations. The HFIR Steady State Heat Transfer Code (HSSHTC) is used to vet the thermal safety margin. Also, a new automation tool that connects all fuel design analysis steps, named Python HFIR Analysis and Measurement Engine (PHAME), has been developed to expedite the design study in an efficient and reproducible manner. Leveraging these tools, several candidate fuel designs were selected for varying fabrication complexity. This report provides design feature details for four selected HFIR LEU low density U 3 Si 2 -Al fuel designs and their corresponding performance and safety metrics. Nominal, best-estimate design parameters and irradiation conditions, including fission rate densities, power densities, heat fluxes, and cumulative fission densities are provided for candidate fuel designs relevant to framing irradiation experiments to support fuel qualification efforts. Simulations show that the low density U 3 Si 2 -Al, with design features to enhance safety, can meet HEU core performance metrics and safety requirements if the reactor power is increased from 85 MW (HEU) to 95 MW (LEU) and if the active fuel length is increased from 50.80 cm (HEU) to 55.88 cm (LEU).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Pinning Characteristics of Zr and Hf- Added REBCO Coated Conductors Made by Advanced MOCVD in Low-to-High Magnetic Fields

BaMO 3 (M=Zr, Hf) pinning centers introduced in REBa 2 Cu 3 O 7-x (REBCO and RE = rare earth) coated conductors yield superior performance in high magnetic fields. We present the critical current density J c over a temperature range of 4.2-77 K and magnetic fields of 0-14 T (B || c-axis), of 5-15 mol.% Zr- and Hf-added REBCO 4+ μm thick film tapes fabricated by advanced metal organic chemical vapor deposition (A-MOCVD). The morphology of self-assembled BMO nanorods aligned along c-axis is found to be dependent on the Zr/Hf content. We also observe a correlation between the density of RE 2 O 3 in-plane nano-precipitates and the continuity and concentration of BMO nanorods in films of different Ba content. It is found that the (Ba+M)/Cu (M=Zr, Hf) content in REBa 2 Cu 3 O 7-x affects the shape of pinning force density curves over a wide magnetic field range and temperatures below 20 K. Another remarkable observation is the similarity in the critical current properties of Hf and Zr -added REBCO films as function of (Ba+M)/Cu content at intermediate to high range of (Ba+M)/Cu content. As a result, a quantitative analysis of pinning efficiency and correlation with the microstructure of Zr and Hf- added REBCO coated conductors is discussed.

2G high-temperature superconductor (2G-HTS)↗

DOE OSTI2021

The effect of elastic strains on the adsorption energy of H, O, and OH in transition metals

The influence of elastic strains on the adsorption of H, O, and OH on the (111) surfaces of 8 fcc (Ni, Cu, Pd, Ag, Pt, Au, Rh, Ir) and on the (0001) surfaces of 3 hcp (Co, Zn, Cd) transition metals was analyzed by means of density functional theory calculations. To this end, surface slabs were subjected to different strain states (uniaxial, biaxial, shear, and a combination of them) up to strains dictated by the mechanical stability limits indicated by phonon calculations. It was found that the adsorption energy followed the predictions of the d-band theory but – surprisingly – the variations in the adsorption energy only depended on the area of the adsorption hole and not on the particular elastic strain tensor applied to achieve this area. The analysis of the electronic structure showed that the applied strains did not modify the shape of the Projected Density of States (PDOS) of the d-orbitals of the transition metals but only led to a shift in the energy levels. Moreover, the presence of the adsorbates on the surfaces led to negligible changes in the PDOS. Thus, the adsorption energies were a function of the Fermi energy which in turn was associated with the change of the area of the adsorption through a general linear law that was valid for all metals. Furthermore, the information in this paper allows the immediate and accurate estimation of the effect of any elastic strain on the adsorption energies of H, O, and OH in 11 transition metals with more than half-filled d-orbitals.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

A measurement of the equation of state of carbon envelopes of white dwarfs

White dwarfs represent the final state of evolution for most stars. Certain classes of white dwarfs pulsate, leading to observable brightness variations, and analysis of these variations with theoretical stellar models probes their internal structure. Modelling of these pulsating stars provides stringent tests of white dwarf models and a detailed picture of the outcome of the late stages of stellar evolution. However, the high-energy-density states that exist in white dwarfs are extremely difficult to reach and to measure in the laboratory, so theoretical predictions are largely untested at these conditions. In this paper we report measurements of the relationship between pressure and density along the principal shock Hugoniot (equations describing the state of the sample material before and after the passage of the shock derived from conservation laws) of hydrocarbon to within five per cent. The observed maximum compressibility is consistent with theoretical models that include detailed electronic structure. This is relevant for the equation of state of matter at pressures ranging from 100 million to 450 million atmospheres, where the understanding of white dwarf physics is sensitive to the equation of state and where models differ considerably. The measurements test these equation-of-state relations that are used in the modelling of white dwarfs and inertial confinement fusion experiments, and we predict an increase in compressibility due to ionization of the inner-core orbitals of carbon. We also find that a detailed treatment of the electronic structure and the electron degeneracy pressure is required to capture the measured shape of the pressure–density evolution for hydrocarbon before peak compression. Our results illuminate the equation of state of the white dwarf envelope (the region surrounding the stellar core that contains partially ionized and partially degenerate non-ideal plasmas), which is a weak link in the constitutive physics informing the structure and evolution of white dwarf stars.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling the microplastic distribution along the Delaware River Estuary: Accumulation patterns and hydrodynamic influences

Microplastic pollution is an escalating environmental concern, particularly in densely populated estuary regions, where it poses significant threats to aquatic life and human health. The dispersion patterns of microplastic particles along estuaries are influenced and complicated by multiple environmental factors such as river flow, tidal mixing, salt intrusion, and estuarine circulation. This study examines the accumulation and dispersion patterns by modeling three typical classes of microplastics in the Delaware River Estuary: synthetic fibers, sinking plastic films, and rising plastic pellets. Our findings reveal specific areas with high microplastic accumulation for each type. Notably, the upper estuary regions exhibit significant retention of rising microplastics, associated with a region with reduced along-thalweg velocities downstream of Trenton, NJ and upstream of Philadelphia, PA. Conversely, synthetic fibers and sinking plastic films accumulate in the flow convergence zone near the bottom salinity front, typically downstream of Philadelphia. All of the microplastic accumulation hot spot locations are controlled by the balance of river discharge and salinity intrusions. During the dry season, microplastic accumulation hot spots shift upstream in the estuary, whereas in the wet season, the strong river discharge pushes them downstream. Furthermore, on the other hand, tidal mixing, settling, and resuspension processes strongly impact the spreading of microplastics along the river.

Delaware River Estuary↗

DOE OSTI2025

Experimental signature of layer skyrmions and implications for band topology in twisted WSe 2 bilayers

Twisted homobilayers of transition-metal dichalcogenides have been established as an ideal platform for studying strong correlation phenomena, as exemplified by the recent discovery of fractional Chern insulator states in twisted MoTe 2 , as well as Chern insulators and unconventional superconductivity in twisted WSe 2 . In these systems, a non-trivial topology in the strongly layer-hybridized regime can arise from a spatial patterning of interlayer tunnelling amplitudes and layer-dependent potentials that yields a lattice of layer skyrmions. Here, in this work, we report experimental signatures of skyrmion textures in the layer degree of freedom of rhombohedral-stacked twisted WSe 2 homobilayers. Using scanning tunnelling spectroscopy that separately resolves the Γ-valley and K-valley moiré electronic states, we reveal opposite layer polarizations of the K valley at two different lattice sites with opposite stacking order within the moiré unit cell. These findings are consistent with the theoretically predicted layer-skyrmion texture. We also use our experimental results to parameterize a common continuum model of moiré bands in twisted bilayers, further establishing a direct correlation between the shape of the local density of states in real space and the topology of the topmost moiré band.

electronic properties and materials↗

DOE OSTI2022

Self-organized magnetic equilibria in tokamak plasmas with very low edge safety factor

Tokamak plasmas often exhibit self-organizing behavior in which internal modes shape the toroidal current density profile, a common example being the sawtooth instability. However, such behavior has not been studied in detail for edge safety factor below 2 due to disruptive kink instabilities that typically prevent operation in this regime. Now, steady tokamak plasmas with an edge safety factor down to 0.8 have been created in the Madison Symmetric Torus, where disruptions are prevented due to a thick, conductive wall and a feedback power supply that sustains the plasma current. Internal measurements and nonlinear magnetohydrodynamic modeling reveal a family of safety factor profiles with a central value clamped near unity as the edge safety factor decreases, indicating current profile broadening through a relaxation process. Furthermore, as the safety factor decreases, the magnetic fluctuations become irregular, and the electron energy confinement time decreases.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Damped Ly α absorbers and atomic hydrogen in galaxies: the view of the GAEA model

ABSTRACT Using the GAEA semi-analytic model, we analyse the connection between Damped Ly α systems (DLAs) and H i in galaxies. Our state-of-the-art semi-analytic model is tuned to reproduce the local galaxy H i mass function, and that also reproduces other important galaxy properties, including the galaxy mass–gas metallicity relation. To produce catalogues of simulated DLAs we throw 105 random lines of sight in a composite simulated volume: dark matter haloes with log$(\frac{M_{200}}{ {\rm M}_{\odot }}) \ge 11.5$ are extracted from the Millennium Simulation, while for $9.2 \le \log (\frac{M_{200}}{ \mathrm{M}_{\odot }})\lt 11.5$ we use the Millennium II, and for $8 \le \log (\frac{M_{200}}{\mathrm{M}_{\odot }}) \lt 9.2$ a halo occupation distribution model. At 2 < z < 3, where observational data are more accurate, our fiducial model predicts the correct shape of the column density distribution function, but its normalization falls short of the observations, with the discrepancy increasing at higher redshift. The agreement with observations is significantly improved increasing both the H i masses and the disc radii of model galaxies by a factor of 2, as implemented ‘a posteriori’ in our 2M−2R model. In the redshift range of interest, haloes with $M_{200} \ge {10}^{11} \, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$ give the major contribution to ΩDLA, and the typical DLA host halo mass is $\sim \!{10}^{11} \, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$. The simulated DLA metallicity distribution is in relatively good agreement with observations, but our model predicts an excess of DLAs at low metallicities. Our results suggest possible improvements for the adopted modelling of the filtering mass and metal ejection in low-mass haloes.

Di Gioia, Serafina↗

DOE OSTI2025

Backlighting extended gas halos around luminous red galaxies: Kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect from DESI Y1 and ACT data

The gas density profile around galaxies, shaped by feedback and affecting the galaxy lensing signal, is imprinted on the cosmic microwave background (CMB) by the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect (kSZ). We precisely measure this effect (𝑆/𝑁 ≈ 10) via velocity stacking with 825,283 spectroscopically confirmed luminous red galaxies (LRG) from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Year 1 (DESI Y1) survey, which overlap with the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 6 temperature maps over ≥ 4,000 deg 2 . We explore the kSZ dependence with various galaxy parameters and find no significant trend with redshift but clear trends with stellar mass and absolute magnitude in 𝑔, 𝑟, and 𝑧 bands. Our analysis suggests that the gas extends beyond the dark matter halo (99.5% confidence level, i.e., probability to exceed (PTE)⁢ = 0.005). We find a tentative preference for hydrodynamical simulation models with stronger feedback that drives gas further out (Illustris 𝑧 = 0.5, PTE⁢ = 0.37) over weaker-feedback cases (IllustrisTNG 𝑧 = 0.8, PTE⁢ = 0.045), though with limited statistical significance. In all cases, a free multiplicative amplitude was fit to the simulated profiles, and further modeling work is required to firm up these conclusions. We find consistency between kSZ profiles around spectroscopic and photometric LRG, with comparable statistical power, thus increasing our confidence in the photometric analysis. Additionally, we present the first kSZ measurement around the DESI Y1 bright galaxy sample (BGS) and the emission-line galaxies (ELG) whose features match qualitative expectations. Finally, we forecast 𝑆/𝑁 ∼ 50 for future stacked kSZ measurements using data from the ACT, the DESI Y3, and the Rubin Observatory. Furthermore, these measurements will serve as an input for galaxy formation models and baryonic uncertainties in galaxy lensing.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Generative deep-learning reveals collective variables of Fermionic systems

Complex processes of fermionic systems ranging from protein folding to nuclear fission often follow a low-dimensional reaction path parametrized in terms of a few collective variables. In nuclear theory, variables related to the shape of the nuclear density in a mean-field picture are key to describing the large amplitude collective motion of the neutrons and protons. Exploring the adiabatic energy landscape spanned by these degrees of freedom reveals the possible reaction channels while simulating the dynamics in this reduced space yields their respective probabilities. Unfortunately, this theoretical framework breaks down whenever the systems encounters a quantum phase transition with respect to the collective variables. Here, in this study, we introduce a novel generative deep-learning algorithm designed to build reaction paths that ensure that the many-fermion wave function stays differentiable with respect to the collective variables. This approach is applicable to any fermionic system described by a coherent state. We use the case of potential energy curves in the 16 O nucleus within the Hartree-Fock theory to illustrate its main features.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Conservative Estimation of Tail Probabilities from Limited Sample Data

Several sparse-sample uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods are compared for conservative but not overly conservative estimation of small tail probabilities involving responses that lay beyond specified thresholds in the tails of probability distributions. Sixteen very differently shaped distributions (or probability density functions, PDFs) and tail probability magnitudes ranging from 10 -5 to 10 -1 are considered in order for the study to be relevant to a wide range of risk analysis and quantification of margins and uncertainty (QMU) problems. The emphasis of the study is on limited data regimes ranging from N = 2 to 20 samples, reflective of most experimental and some expensive computational situations. Relatively simple sparse-sample UQ methods tested for this regime involve statistical tolerance interval "Equivalent Normal and related "Ensemble of Normals" and "Superdistribution (SD) approaches. (The independently derived SD is effectively equivalent to the Bayesian posterior predictive distribution given the assumptions of the derivation.) The performance of the methods was generally improved for N ≥ 5 samples with a generalized Jackknife resampling technique, which determines a tail probability estimate by averaging estimates from smaller sub-samples. Several quantitative metrics for method conservatism and accuracy of tail probability estimation are used to assess and rank the methods' performance over many random trials for each test PDF and probability magnitude. A variant of Bootstrap resampling was also tried, but did not significantly improve tail probability estimates in most cases. Detailed results are presented from over 100-million tests over the above factors that provide useful granular information on which methods or combination of methods perform best in various areas of the factor space.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗