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DOE OSTI2025

How Does Feedback Affect the Star Formation Histories of Galaxies?

Star formation in galaxies is regulated by the interplay of a range of processes that shape the multiphase gas in the interstellar and circumgalactic media. Using the Cosmology and Astrophysics with MachinE Learning Simulations (CAMELS) suite of cosmological simulations, we study the effects of varying feedback and cosmology on the average star formation histories (SFHs) of galaxies at z ∼ 0 across the IllustrisTNG, SIMBA, and ASTRID galaxy formation models. We find that galaxy SFHs in all three models are sensitive to changes in stellar feedback, which affect the efficiency of baryon cycling and the rates at which central black holes grow, whereas the effects of varying active galactic nucleus (AGN) feedback depend on model-specific implementations of black hole seeding, accretion, and feedback. We also find strong interaction terms that couple stellar and AGN feedback, usually by regulating the amount of gas available for the central black hole to accrete. Using a double power law to describe the average SFHs, we derive a general set of equations relating the shape of the SFHs to physical quantities like baryon fraction and black hole mass across all three models. We find that a single set of equations (albeit with different coefficients) can describe the SFHs across all three CAMELS models, with cosmology dominating the SFH at early times, followed by halo accretion, and feedback and baryon cycling at late times. Galaxy SFHs provide a novel, complementary probe to constrain cosmology and feedback, and can connect the observational constraints from current and upcoming galaxy surveys with the physical mechanisms responsible for regulating galaxy growth and quenching.

Iyer, Kartheik G. [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (U↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiscale astrobiology with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) presents an unprecedented opportunity to advance the search for astrobiologically relevant data across diverse astronomical environments. Through its extensive imaging capabilities, LSST will enhance our inventory of Solar System objects and assess their potential astrobiological conditions. Beyond the Solar System, LSST will survey billions of stars, contributing to the detection of exoplanets, characterizing planetary atmospheres at a zeroth-order level, identifying transient phenomena, and exploring conditions within habitable zones. In this paper, we highlight LSST’s unique contribution to astrobiology, complementing other missions and expanding the search for life beyond Earth in the coming decades.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

AT2025ulz and S250818k: Leveraging DESI Spectroscopy in the Hunt for a Kilonova Associated with a Subsolar-mass Gravitational-wave Candidate

On 2025 August 18, the LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA collaboration reported a subthreshold gravitational-wave candidate detection consistent with a subsolar-mass neutron star merger, denoted S250818k. An optical transient, AT2025ulz, was discovered within the localization region. AT2025ulz initially appeared to meet the expected behavior of kilonova emission, the telltale signature of a binary neutron star merger. The transient subsequently rebrightened after ∼5 days and was classified as a Type IIb supernova. In this work, we analyze the observations of its host galaxy obtained by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). From the DESI spectrum, we obtain a secure redshift of z = 0.084840 ± 0.000006. If S250818k has an astrophysical origin, this places the transient within 2σ of the gravitational-wave distance and results in an integral overlap between the gravitational-wave alert and the transient location of log 10 $\mathcal{I} ≈ 3.9 - 4.2$. Our analysis of the host galaxy’s spectral energy distribution reveals a star-forming, dusty galaxy with stellar mass ∼10 10 M ⊙ , broadly consistent with the population of both short gamma-ray bursts and core-collapse supernova host galaxies. We also present our follow-up of DESI-selected candidate host galaxies using the Fraunhofer Telescope at the Wendelstein Observatory, and show the promise of DESI for associating or rejecting candidate electromagnetic counterparts to gravitational-wave alerts. These results emphasize the value of DESI’s extensive spectroscopic dataset in rapidly characterizing host galaxies, enabling spectroscopic host subtraction, and guiding targeted follow-up.

Hall, Xander J. [Carnegie Mellon University, Pitts↗
DOE OSTI2021

Searching for Gravitational Waves from Cosmological Phase Transitions with the NANOGrav 12.5-Year Dataset

We search for a first-order phase transition gravitational wave signal in 45 pulsars from the NANOGrav 12.5-year dataset. We find that the data can be modeled in terms of a strong first order phase transition taking place at temperatures below the electroweak scale. However, we do not observe any strong preference for a phase-transition interpretation of the signal over the standard astrophysical interpretation in terms of supermassive black hole mergers; but we expect to gain additional discriminating power with future datasets, improving the signal to noise ratio and extending the sensitivity window to lower frequencies. An interesting open question is how well gravitational wave observatories could separate such signals.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Size and Shape Constraints of (486958) Arrokoth from Stellar Occultations

We present the results from four stellar occultations by (486958) Arrokoth, the flyby target of the New Horizons extended mission. Three of the four efforts led to positive detections of the body, and all constrained the presence of rings and other debris, finding none. Twenty-five mobile stations were deployed for 2017 June 3 and augmented by fixed telescopes. There were no positive detections from this effort. The event on 2017 July 10 was observed by the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy with one very short chord. Twenty-four deployed stations on 2017 July 17 resulted in five chords that clearly showed a complicated shape consistent with a contact binary with rough dimensions of 20 by 30 km for the overall outline. A visible albedo of 10% was derived from these data. Twenty-two systems were deployed for the fourth event on 2018 August 4 and resulted in two chords. The combination of the occultation data and the flyby results provides a significant refinement of the rotation period, now estimated to be 15.9380 ± 0.0005 hr. The occultation data also provided high-precision astrometric constraints on the position of the object that were crucial for supporting the navigation for the New Horizons flyby. This work demonstrates an effective method for obtaining detailed size and shape information and probing for rings and dust on distant Kuiper Belt objects as well as being an important source of positional data that can aid in spacecraft navigation that is particularly useful for small and distant bodies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Freeform three-mirror anastigmatic large-aperture telescope and receiver optics for CMB-S4

CMB-S4, the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) observatory, will provide detailed maps of the CMB at millimeter wavelengths to dramatically advance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the universe. CMB-S4 will deploy large and small aperture telescopes with hundreds of thousands of detectors to observe the CMB at arcminute and degree resolutions at millimeter wavelengths. Inflationary science benefits from a deep delensing survey at arcminute resolutions capable of observing a large field of view at millimeter wavelengths. This kind of survey acts as a complement to a degree angular resolution survey. The delensing survey requires a nearly uniform distribution of cameras per frequency band across the focal plane. We present a large-throughput, large-aperture (5-meter diameter) freeform three-mirror anastigmatic telescope and an array of 85 cameras for CMB observations at arcminute resolutions, which meets the needs of the delensing survey of CMB-S4. A detailed prescription of this three-mirror telescope and cameras is provided, with a series of numerical calculations that indicate expected optical performance and mechanical tolerance.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Recurring Planetary Debris Transits and Circumstellar Gas around White Dwarf ZTF J0328–1219

We present follow-up photometry and spectroscopy of ZTF J0328-1219, strengthening its status as a white dwarf exhibiting transiting planetary debris. Using TESS and Zwicky Transient Facility photometry, along with follow-up high-speed photometry from various observatories, we find evidence for two significant periods of variability at 9.937 and 11.2 hr. We interpret these as most likely the orbital periods of different debris clumps. Changes in the detailed dip structures within the light curves are observed on nightly, weekly, and monthly timescales, reminiscent of the dynamic behavior observed in the first white dwarf discovered to harbor a disintegrating asteroid, WD 1145+017. We fit previously published spectroscopy along with broadband photometry to obtain new atmospheric parameters for the white dwarf, with M * = 0.731 ± 0.023 M⊙, T eff = 7630 ± 140 K, and [Ca/He] = - 9.55 ± 0.12. With new high-resolution spectroscopy, we detect prominent and narrow Na D absorption features likely of circumstellar origin, with velocities 21.4 ± 1.0 km s -1 blueshifted relative to atmospheric lines. We attribute the periodically modulated photometric signal to dusty effluents from small orbiting bodies such as asteroids or comets, but we are unable to identify the most likely material that is being sublimated, or otherwise ejected, as the environmental temperatures range from roughly 400 to 700 K.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Astropy Project: Sustaining and Growing a Community-oriented Open-source Project and the Latest Major Release (v5.0) of the Core Package

The Astropy Project supports and fosters the development of open-source and openly developed Python packages that provide commonly needed functionality to the astronomical community. A key element of the Astropy Project is the core package astropy, which serves as the foundation for more specialized projects and packages. In this article, we summarize key features in the core package as of the recent major release, version 5.0, and provide major updates on the Project. We then discuss supporting a broader ecosystem of interoperable packages, including connections with several astronomical observatories and missions. We also revisit the future outlook of the Astropy Project and the current status of Learn Astropy. We conclude by raising and discussing the current and future challenges facing the Project.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Spectroscopic Stage-5 Experiment

The existence, properties, and dynamics of the dark sectors of our universe pose fundamental challenges to our current model of physics, and large-scale astronomical surveys may be our only hope to unravel these long-standing mysteries. In this white paper, we describe the science motivation, instrumentation, and survey plan for the next-generation spectroscopic observatory, the Stage-5 Spectroscopic Experiment (Spec-S5). Spec-S5 is a new all-sky spectroscopic instrument optimized to efficiently carry out cosmological surveys of unprecedented scale and precision. The baseline plan for Spec-S5 involves upgrading two existing 4-m telescopes to new 6-m wide-field facilities, each with a highly multiplexed spectroscopic instrument capable of simultaneously measuring the spectra of 13,000 astronomical targets. Spec-S5, which builds and improves on the hardware used for previous cosmology experiments, represents a cost-effective and rapid approach to realizing a more than 10$\times$ gain in spectroscopic capability compared to the current state-of-the-art represented by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument project (DESI). Spec-S5 will provide a critical scientific capability in the post-Rubin and post-DESI era for advancing cosmology, fundamental physics, and astrophysics in the 2030s.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards provision of regularly updated climate data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is a flagship of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). CMIP has become a recognised ‘brand’ in climate circles evolving over the last thirty years from a targeted research activity by a small number of climate modelling centres intercomparing their Earth System Model (ESM) simulations to a broad international coordinated research effort (Durack et al, 2025). CMIP is organized as a research activity leveraging funded and in-kind contributions from experts within modelling centres and the broader scientific community supported more recently by a fully-funded International Project Office. Within CMIP, Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) are community-designed to understand past, present and future climate. CMIP data provides a valuable resource for climate research and is routinely used to assess model representation of climate processes and test scientific hypotheses in the context of model uncertainty and (forced and internal) variability as evident from its prolific use in scientific publications1 . The impact relies on enabling infrastructure (most prominently via the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF)), which allows sharing of simulation output, provision of the boundary conditions used in each simulation, and definition of the data standards that are essential to facilitating wide use of the data. The impact is supplemented by the wide-ranging scrutiny to which model simulations are subjected. Beyond its use in research, CMIP data is a key resource for communities producing derived climate information from downscaling and impact studies, such as the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX; Gutowski et al., 2016) and the Intersectoral Impacts MIP (ISIMIP; Frieler et al., 2024). Government, academic and commercial entities also increasingly rely on CMIP and its downstream data for climate risk assessments and climate services (for example, Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Bank portal). This means that, although CMIP is a research activity, it increasingly serves a secondary and very relevant role as a provider of climate data – a long-recognised dichotomy (Stevens, 2024). Research and applications have distinct needs, with the former requiring flexibility and generality and the latter consistency. Here we explain how the design of the research activity has been adapted to reduce the burdens imposed by applications and how the research infrastructure might evolve to further enable scientific inquiry. We propose one possible approach to consistently providing model information and projections for applications in the future.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

The LSST DESC DC2 Simulated Sky Survey

Here, we describe the simulated sky survey underlying the second data challenge (DC2) carried out in preparation for analysis of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) by the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (LSST DESC). Significant connections across multiple science domains will be a hallmark of LSST; the DC2 program represents a unique modeling effort that stresses this interconnectivity in a way that has not been attempted before. This effort encompasses a full end-to-end approach: starting from a large N-body simulation, through setting up LSST-like observations including realistic cadences, through image simulations, and finally processing with Rubin's LSST Science Pipelines. This last step ensures that we generate data products resembling those to be delivered by the Rubin Observatory as closely as is currently possible. The simulated DC2 sky survey covers six optical bands in a wide-fast-deep area of approximately 300 deg 2 , as well as a deep drilling field of approximately 1 deg 2 . We simulate 5 yr of the planned 10 yr survey. The DC2 sky survey has multiple purposes. First, the LSST DESC working groups can use the data set to develop a range of DESC analysis pipelines to prepare for the advent of actual data. Second, it serves as a realistic test bed for the image processing software under development for LSST by the Rubin Observatory. In particular, simulated data provide a controlled way to investigate certain image-level systematic effects. Finally, the DC2 sky survey enables the exploration of new scientific ideas in both static and time domain cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Velocity reconstruction in the era of DESI and Rubin/LSST. II. Realistic samples on the light cone

Reconstructing the galaxy peculiar velocity field from the distribution of large-scale structure plays an important role in cosmology. On one hand, it gives us an insight into structure formation and gravity; on the other, it allows us to selectively extract the kinetic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (kSZ) effect from cosmic microwave background maps. In this work, we employ high-accuracy synthetic galaxy catalogs on the light cone to investigate how well we can recover the velocity field when utilizing the three-dimensional spatial distribution of the galaxies in a modern large-scale structure experiment such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) and the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time. In particular, we adopt the standard technique used in baryon acoustic oscillation analysis for reconstructing the Zel’dovich displacements of galaxies through the continuity equation, which yields a first-order approximation to their large-scale velocities. We investigate variations in the number density, bias, mask, area, redshift noise, and survey depth, as well as modifications to the settings of the standard reconstruction algorithm. Since our main goal is to provide guidance for planned kSZ analysis between DESI and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope, we apply velocity reconstruction to a faithful representation of DESI spectroscopic and photometric targets. We report the cross-correlation coefficient between the reconstructed and the true velocities along the line of sight. For the DESI Y1 spectroscopic survey, we expect the correlation coefficient to be r ≈ 0.64, while for a photometric survey with δ z /(1+z) = 0.02, as is approximately the case for the Legacy Survey used in the target selection of DESI galaxies, r shrinks by half to r ≈ 0.31. Here, we hope the results in this paper can be used to inform future kSZ stacking studies and other velocity reconstruction analyses planned with the next generation of cosmology experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The physical origin of dark energy constraints from rubin observatory and CMB-S4 lensing tomography

ABSTRACT We seek to clarify the origin of constraints on the dark energy equation of state parameter from CMB lensing tomography, that is the combination of galaxy clustering and the cross-correlation of galaxies with CMB lensing in a number of redshift bins. We focus on the analytic understanding of the origin of the constraints. Dark energy information in these data arises from the influence of three primary relationships: distance as a function of redshift (geometry), the amplitude of the power spectrum as a function of redshift (growth), and the power spectrum as a function of wavenumber (shape). We find that the effects from geometry and growth play a significant role and partially cancel each other out, while the shape effect is unimportant. We also show that Dark Energy Task Force figure of merit forecasts from the combination of LSST galaxies and CMB-S4 lensing are comparable to the forecasts from cosmic shear in the absence of the CMB lensing map, thus providing an important independent check. Compared to the forecasts with the LSST galaxies alone, combining CMB lensing and LSST clustering information increases the FoM by roughly a factor of 3–4 in the optimistic scenario where systematics are fully under control. We caution that achieving these forecasts will likely require a full analysis of higher-order biasing, photometric redshift uncertainties, and stringent control of other systematic limitations, which are outside the scope of this work, whose primary purpose is to elucidate the physical origin of the constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the state-of-the-art in remote volcanic eruption characterization Part II: Ulawun volcano, Papua New Guinea

Retrospective eruption characterization is valuable for advancing our understanding of volcanic systems and evaluating our observational capabilities, especially with remote technologies (defined here as a space-borne system or non-local, ground-based instrumentation which include regional and remote infrasound sensors). In June 2019, the open-system Ulawun volcano, Papua New Guinea, produced a VEI 4 eruption. We combined data from satellites (including Sentinel-2, TROPOMI, MODIS, Himawari-8), the International Monitoring System infrasound network, and GLD360 globally detected lightning with information from the local authorities and social media to characterize the pre-, syn- and post-eruptive behaviour. The Rabaul Volcano Observatory recorded ~24 h of seismicity and detected SO 2 emissions ~16 h before the visually-documented start of the Plinian phase on 26 June at 04:20 UTC. Infrasound and SO2 detections suggest the eruption started during the night on 24 June 2019 at 10:39 UTC ~38 h before ash detections with a gas-dominated jetting phase. Local reports and infrasound detections show that the second phase of the eruption started on 25 June 19:28 UTC with ~6 h of jetting. The first detected lightning occurred on 26 June 00:14 UTC, and ash emissions were first detected by Himawari-8 at 01:00 UTC. Post-eruptive satellite imagery indicates new flow deposits to the south and north of the edifice and ash fall to the west and southwest. In particular, regional infrasound data provided novel insight into eruption onset and syn-eruptive changes in intensity. We conclude that, while remote observations are sufficient for detection and tracking of syn-eruptive changes, key challenges in data latency, acquisition, and synthesis must be addressed to improve future near-real-time characterization of eruptions at minimally-monitored or unmonitored volcanoes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

An evolving Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7) and Fast Track in support of future climate assessment

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) coordinates community-based efforts to answer key and timely climate science questions, facilitate delivery of relevant multi-model simulations through shared infrastructure, and support national and international climate assessments. Generations of CMIP have evolved through extensive community engagement from punctuated phasing into more continuous support for the design of experimental protocols, infrastructure for data publication and access, and public delivery of climate information. We identify four fundamental research questions motivating a seventh phase of coupled model intercomparison relating to patterns of sea surface temperature change, changing weather, the water–carbon–climate nexus, and tipping points. Key CMIP7 advances include an expansion of baseline experiments, a focus on CO 2 -emissions-driven experiments, sustained support for community MIPs, periodic updating of historical forcings and diagnostics requests, and a collection of prioritized experiments, or the “Assessment Fast Track”, drawn from community MIPs to support climate research, assessment, and service goals across prediction and projection, characterization, attribution, and process understanding.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Detecting strongly lensed type Ia supernovae with LSST

ABSTRACT Strongly lensed supernovae are rare and valuable probes of cosmology and astrophysics. Upcoming wide-field time-domain surveys, such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), are expected to discover an order-of-magnitude more lensed supernovae than have previously been observed. In this work, we investigate the cosmological prospects of lensed type Ia supernovae (SNIa) in LSST by quantifying the expected annual number of detections, the impact of stellar microlensing, follow-up feasibility, and how to best separate lensed and unlensed SNIa. We simulate SNIa lensed by galaxies, using the current LSST baseline v3.0 cadence, and find an expected number of 44 lensed SNIa detections per year. Microlensing effects by stars in the lensing galaxy are predicted to lower the lensed SNIa detections by ∼8 per cent. The lensed events can be separated from the unlensed ones by jointly considering their colours and peak magnitudes. We define a ‘gold sample’ of ∼10 lensed SNIa per year with time delay >10 d, >5 detections before light curve peak, and sufficiently bright (mi < 22.5 mag) for follow-up observations. In 3 yr of LSST operations, such a sample is expected to yield a 1.5 per cent measurement of the Hubble constant.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

The DESI Transients Survey: Legacy Classifications and Methodology

We present the first systematic spectroscopic observations of extragalactic transients from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), as part of the DESI Transients Survey program. With 5,000 fibers and an ${\sim} 8$ deg$^2$ field of view, we exploit DESI as a machine for the discovery and classification of transients. We present transient classifications from archival DESI data in Data Releases 1 and 2, relying on a combination of a secondary target program and serendipitous observations. We also present observations from the first 6 months of the DESI spare fiber program dedicated to transients. The program is run in coordination with a dedicated DECam time-domain survey, serving as a pathfinder for what we will be able to achieve in conjunction with the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We classify over 250 transients, of which the majority were previously unclassified. The sample comprises thermonuclear and core-collapse supernovae and tidal disruption events (TDEs), including a TDE observed before its discovery in imaging. We demonstrate DESI's ability to classify a population of faint transients down to $r\sim 22.5$ mag during main survey operations, with negligible impacts on DESI's main observations.

Hall, Xander J. [Carnegie Mellon U.] (ORCID:000000↗
DOE OSTI2025

Lens Modeling of STRIDES Strongly Lensed Quasars Using Neural Posterior Estimation

Strongly lensed quasars can be used to constrain cosmological parameters through time-delay cosmography. Models of the lens masses are a necessary component of this analysis. To enable time-delay cosmography from a sample of $\mathcal{O}(10^3)$ lenses, which will soon become available from surveys like the Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time and the Euclid Wide Survey, we require fast and standardizable modeling techniques. To address this need, we apply neural posterior estimation (NPE) for modeling galaxy-scale strongly lensed quasars from the Strong Lensing Insights into the Dark Energy Survey (STRIDES) sample. NPE brings two advantages: speed and the ability to implicitly marginalize over nuisance parameters. We extend this method by employing sequential NPE to increase precision of mass model posteriors. We then fold individual lens models into a hierarchical Bayesian inference to recover the population distribution of lens mass parameters, accounting for out-of-distribution shift. After verifying our method using simulated analogs of the STRIDES lens sample, we apply our method to 14 Hubble Space Telescope single-filter observations. We find the population mean of the power-law elliptical mass distribution slope, γ lens , to be $\mathcal{M}_γ$ lens = 2.13 ± 0.06. Our result represents the first population-level constraint for these systems. This population-level inference from fully automated modeling is an important stepping stone toward cosmological inference with large samples of strongly lensed quasars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗