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NASA NTRS1983

On the stellar rotation-activity connection

The relationship between rotation rates and surface activity in late-type dwarf stars is explored in a survey of recent theoretical and observational studies. Current theoretical models of stellar-magnetic-field production and coronal activity are examined, including linear kinematic dynamo theory, nonlinear dynamos using approximations, and full numerical simulations of the MHD equations; and some typical results are presented graphically. The limitations of the modeling procedures and the constraints imposed by the physics are indicated. The statistical techniques used in establishing correlations between various observational parameters are analyzed critically, and the methods developed for quasar luminosity functions by Avni et al. (1980) are used to evaluate the effects of upper detection bounds, incomplete samples, and missing data for the case of rotation and X-ray flux data.

Rosner, R.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Impact of turbulence modeling on numerical accuracy and efficiency of compressible flow simulations

Discussed is the numerical implementation of turbulence models used in viscous compressible flow simulations and their performance described with respect to numerical accuracy, efficiency and stability. The basic approach utilizes the Reynolds-averaged compressible Navier-Stokes equations in which the Reynolds stresses and heat fluxes are mathematically modeled by suitable turbulence models. The turbulence models investigated include zero-, one-, and two-equation eddy viscosity models. The flow fields investigated include theoretical and supersonic flows about two-dimensional and axisymmetric bodies. Discussions concerning the numerical implementation of models include differencing procedures and boundary conditions used to assume numerical stability and accuracy. Numerical performance is also evaluated by comparing computations with experimental results.

Coakley, Thomas J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Thermodynamic balance of three-dimensional stratospheric winds derived from a data assimilation procedure

The NASA/Goddard three-dimensional chemistry and transport model is driven by winds from a stratospheric data assimilation system. Synoptic- and planetary-scale patterns, apparent in satellite observations of trace constituents, are successfully reproduced for seasonal integrations. As model integrations proceed, however, the quality of simulations decreases, and systematic differences between calculation and measurement appear. The differences are explained by examining the zonal-mean residual circulation. The vertical velocity w-bar (sup star) is calculated two ways: (1) from the diabatic heating rates and temperature tendency and (2) from the Eulerian vertical velocity and the horizontal eddy heat flux convergence. The results from these calculations differ substantially. Periodic insertion of observational data during the assimilation process continually shocks the general circulation model and produces these differences, which leads to an overestimate of the mean vertical heat and cconstituent transport. Such differences are expected to be general to all data assimilation products. This interpretation is corroborated by two-dimensional (2D) model calculations. When w-bar(sup star) is calculated from (2), the 2D ozone evolution is unrealistic and qualitatively similar to the 3D model simulation. The 2D ozone evolution is reasonable when w-bar (sup star) from (1).

Weaver, Clark J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Search for the Anomalous Events Detected by ANITA Using the Pierre Auger Observatory

A dedicated search for upward-going air showers at zenith angles exceeding 110° and energies E > 0.1 EeV has been performed using the Fluorescence Detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory. The search is motivated by two “anomalous” radio pulses observed by the ANITA flights I and III that appear inconsistent with the standard model of particle physics. Using simulations of both regular cosmic-ray showers and upward-going events, a selection procedure has been defined to separate potential upward-going candidate events and the corresponding exposure has been calculated in the energy range [0.1–33] EeV. One event has been found in the search period between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2018, consistent with an expected background of 0.27 ± 0.12 events from misreconstructed cosmic-ray showers. This translates to an upper bound on the integral flux of ( 7.2 ± 0.2 ) × 10 − 21 cm − 2 sr − 1 y − 1 and ( 3.6 ± 0.2 ) × 10 − 20 cm − 2 sr − 1 y − 1 for an E − 1 and E − 2 spectrum, respectively. An upward-going flux of showers normalized to the ANITA observations is shown to predict over 34 events for an E − 3 spectrum and over 8.1 events for a conservative E − 5 spectrum, in strong disagreement with the interpretation of the anomalous events as upward-going showers. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Abdul Halim, A.↗

NASA NTRS1985

A fast, time-accurate unsteady full potential scheme

The unsteady form of the full potential equation is solved in conservation form by an implicit method based on approximate factorization. At each time level, internal Newton iterations are performed to achieve time accuracy and computational efficiency. A local time linearization procedure is introduced to provide a good initial guess for the Newton iteration. A novel flux-biasing technique is applied to generate proper forms of the artificial viscosity to treat hyperbolic regions with shocks and sonic lines present. The wake is properly modeled by accounting not only for jumps in phi, but also for jumps in higher derivatives of phi, obtained by imposing the density to be continuous across the wake. The far field is modeled using the Riemann invariants to simulate nonreflecting boundary conditions. The resulting unsteady method performs well which, even at low reduced frequency levels of 0.1 or less, requires fewer than 100 time steps per cycle at transonic Mach numbers. The code is fully vectorized for the CRAY-XMP and the VPS-32 computers.

Shankar, V.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Collaborative Proposal: Improving understanding of the internal structure and dynamics of deep convection using ARM observations and large eddy simulations

Recent observational and large eddy simulation (LES) modeling studies have nearly unanimously supported the view of deep cumulus convection being composed of a series of quasi-spherical bubbles of buoyant air, known as moist thermals. Despite the prevalence of moist thermals in deep convection, a comprehensive theory for the dynamics of these structures is lacking. Most current conceptual models for cumulus convection are based on canonical scaling theories for dry thermals or plumes; however, there is considerable evidence that the behavior of moist thermals differs markedly from these theories. Furthermore, the theoretical basis for most cumulus parameterizations originates from the plume conceptual model, and therefore these parameterizations are inconsistent with the real structure of moist convection. Motivated by the aforementioned knowledge gaps, this “end-to-end” research effort use theory, observations, numerical simulations, and direct improvements to the Zhang-McFarlane (ZM) convection scheme in the global climate Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) to address the following research questions: What key environmental parameters determine whether or not shallow convection will transition into deep convection, in the context of thermal-like updrafts? What factors regulate the size of thermals within cumulus updrafts? How does vertical wind shear influence thermal behavior, and as a consequence, vertical velocity and mass flux profiles and the shallow-to-deep convective transition? What are the critical processes that determine updraft vertical velocities and their connection to the vertical mass flux profile for thermal-like updrafts? Idealized LES modeling will be used in conjunction with theoretical models for the core properties of thermal-like updrafts to better understand key processes that regulate thermal ascent rates and entrainment properties. Thermal-tracking procedures will be used to characterize the behavior of thermals within the LES, and recently developed direct measures of entrainment and detrainment will be used to quantify entrainment/detrainment rates. Building from these results, we will analyze the structure of moist thermals from hemispheric range-height indicator scans taken during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign, and from “real case” LES of CACTI events. This combined modeling and observational analysis will provide essential validation for the existing body of research on moist thermal dynamics, which is based primarily on modeling studies. With the insight gained from the aforementioned activities, we will modify the Zhang-McFarlane convection scheme to improve its representation of updraft vertical velocity and entrainment rate profiles. These process-level changes will be tested in the Community Atmosphere Model to assess the impact on global climate simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1993

Measurement of evapotranspiration with combined reflective and thermal infrared radiance observations

The broad goal of the research summarized in this report was 'To facilitate the evaluation of regional evapotranspiration (ET) through the combined use of solar reflective and thermal infrared radiance observations.' The specific objectives stated by Goward and Hope (1986) were to: (1) investigate the nature of the relationship between surface temperature (T(sub S)) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and develop an understanding of this relationship in terms of energy exchange processes, particularly latent flux heat (LE); (2) develop procedures to estimate large area LE using combined T(sub S) and NDVI observations obtained from AVHRR data; and (3) determine whether measurements derived from satellite observations relate directly to measurements made at the surface or from aircraft platforms. Both empirical and modeling studies were used to develop an understanding of the T(sub S)-NDVI relationship. Most of the modeling was based on the Tergra model as originally proposed by Goward. This model, and modified versions developed in this project, simulates the flows of water and energy in the soil-plant-atmosphere system using meteorological, soil and vegetation inputs. Model outputs are the diurnal course of soil moisture, T(sub S), LE and the other individual components of the surface energy balance.

Hope, Allen S.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Free-Surface Liquid Lithium Flow Modeling and Stability Analysis for Fusion Applications

Liquid metal plasma facing components are considered an attractive design choice for fusion devices including pilot plants. Virtual prototyping of such devices includes modeling of free-surface flow of the electrically conductive liquid, which requires computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations. Numerical tools capable of simulating flows and heat transfer in the free-surface MHD flow were developed at PPPL based on the customized ANSYS CFX. Here, MHD is introduced using a magnetic vector potential approach. Free-surface flow capabilities are available in the code and were tested. Special stabilization procedures were derived and applied to improve convergence of the momentum equations with the source terms due to the Lorentz force and surface tension. Important characteristics of the fusion-relevant liquid metal flow is free surface smoothness and stability. Heat flux from the plasma impacts the liquid surface at a very acute angle, so any change of the free surface from axisymmetry can dramatically increase the local heat flux density and thus create excessive evaporation of liquid lithium into the plasma, which is detrimental to operations. Stability analysis of the liquid metal film flow was performed to determine applicable flow regimes. Thin film flow along horizontal wall is considered. Effects of gravity, magnetic field, and surface tension are included in the analysis.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1997

High-Flux, High-Temperature Thermal Vacuum Qualification Testing of a Solar Receiver Aperture Shield

As part of the International Space Station (ISS) Phase 1 program, NASA Lewis Research Center (LERC) and the Russian Space Agency (RSA) teamed together to design, build and flight test the world's first orbital Solar Dynamic Power System (SDPS) on the Russian space station Mir. The Solar Dynamic Flight Demonstration (SDFD) program was to operate a nominal 2 kWe SDPS on Mir for a period up to 1-year starting in late 1997. Unfortunately, the SDFD mission was demanifested from the ISS phase 1 shuttle program in early 1996. However, substantial flight hardware and prototypical flight hardware was built including a heat receiver and aperture shield. The aperture shield comprises the front face of the cylindrical cavity heat receiver and is located at the focal plane of the solar concentrator. It is constructed of a stainless steel plate with a 1-m outside diameter, a 0.24-m inside diameter and covered with high-temperature, refractory metal Multi-Foil Insulation (MFI). The aperture shield must minimize heat loss from the receiver cavity, provide a stiff, high strength structure to accommodate shuttle launch loads and protect receiver structures from highly concentrated solar fluxes during concentrator off-pointing events. To satisfy Mir operational safety protocols, the aperture shield was required to accommodate direct impingement of the intensely concentrated solar image for a 1-hour period. To verify thermal-structural durability under the anticipated high-flux, high-temperature loading, an aperture shield test article was constructed and underwent a series of two tests in a large thermal vacuum chamber configured with a reflective, point-focus solar concentrator and a solar simulator. The test article was positioned near the focal plane and exposed to concentrated solar flux for a period of 1-hour. In the first test, a near equilibrium temperature of 1862 K was attained in the center of the shield hot spot. In the second test, with increased incident flux, a near equilibrium temperature of 2072 K was achieved. The aperture shield sustained no visible damage as a result of the exposures. This paper describes the aperture shield thermal-vacuum qualification test program including the test article, test facility, procedures, data collection, test success criteria, results and conclusions.

Kerslake, Thomas W.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Strategy to Develop a Control Scheme for Core Thermal Performance Optimization

This report outlines a three-year research plan for optimizing reactor core thermal performance through use of a Digital Twin (DT) model and a set of neutron detectors to correspondingly adapt the reactor control strategy. It identifies reactor features and achievable neutron measurements that factor into this optimization task. It considers spatial effects that are important and how they can be managed by a real-time algorithm that controls reactivity actuators. The report presents a set of tasks, along with corresponding methods, for accomplishing this objective. The final task in this set is to validate the combined optimization procedure in the Purdue University’s PUR-1 reactor, for which we have an agreement of understanding. Additionally, we describe an alternative approach for overcoming some of the limitations inherent in the above approach, which includes the computational costs of high-fidelity simulations and achievable integration of neutron measurements into the DT. The proposed algorithms lower the technology readiness level (TRL) of the overall approach as some additional analysis and the development of a new neutron detector concept are necessary. In particular, a sensor measuring the gradient of the neutron flux is required, and the prototype is expected to be validated in the PUR-1 reactor. The potential benefits and the opportunity to significantly push forward the state-of-the-art make this approach worthy of further exploration in the upcoming years.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

A data-driven approach to real-time vertical position estimation for NSTX-U vertical stability control

In this paper, a database of 77 996 plasma equilibrium reconstructions from 727 discharges during the initial operation of the NSTX-U spherical tokamak is analyzed to develop a statistically robust model of the plasma vertical position for real-time control. A variety of regression models are developed and tested, ranging in complexity from linear models to deep neural networks, and including input signals ranging from the four pairs of flux loops used historically on NSTX-U up to the full set of 389 real-time signals available to the plasma control system. A linear model based on 140 real-time magnetics signals is found to offer excellent accuracy, with a coefficient of determination R 2 = 0.906. The robustness of this model to limited training data, new operating scenarios, and signal errors is tested, and a procedure is demonstrated to tune the model parameters to optimize its robustness. A time-dependent plasma equilibrium solver, TokaMaker, is used to simulate vertical stability control in NSTX-U, demonstrating that it should be possible to iteratively tune the parameters of a linear vertical position model to stabilize both positive and negative triangularity plasmas in future experiments.

magnetic diagnostics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Realizability-preserving discontinuous Galerkin method for spectral two-moment radiation transport in special relativity

Here we present a realizability-preserving numerical method for solving a spectral two-moment model to simulate the transport of massless, neutral particles interacting with a steady background material moving with relativistic velocities. The model is obtained as the special relativistic limit of a four-momentum-conservative general relativistic two-moment model. Using a maximum-entropy closure, we solve for the Eulerian-frame energy and momentum. The proposed numerical method is designed to preserve moment realizability, which corresponds to moments defined by a nonnegative phase-space density. The realizability-preserving method is achieved with the following key components: (i) a discontinuous Galerkin phase-space discretization with specially constructed numerical fluxes in the spatial and energy dimensions; (ii) a strong stability-preserving implicit-explicit time-integration method; (iii) a realizability-preserving conserved to primitive moment solver; (iv) a realizability-preserving implicit collision solver; and (v) a realizability-enforcing limiter. Component (iii) is necessitated by the closure procedure, which closes higher order moments nonlinearly in terms of primitive moments. The nonlinear conserved to primitive and the implicit collision solves are formulated as fixed-point problems, which are solved with custom iterative solvers designed to preserve the realizability of each iterate. With a series of numerical tests, we demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of this discontinuous-Galerkin-implicit-explicit method.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1985

An initialization procedure for assimilating geostationary satellite data into numerical weather prediction models

An attempt was made to offset the limitations of GEO satellites for supplying timely initialization data for numerical weather prediction models (NWP). The NWP considered combined an isentropic representation of the free atmosphere with a sigma-coordinate model for the lower 200 mb. A flux form of the predictive equations described vertical transport interactions at the boundary of the two model domains, thereby accounting for the poor vertical temperature and wind field resolution of GEO satellite data. A variational analysis approach was employed to insert low resolution satellite-sensed temperature data at varying rates. The model vertical resolution was limited to that available from the satellite. Test simulations demonstrated that accuracy increases with the frequency of data updates, e.g., every 0.5-1 hr. The tests also showed that extensive cloud cover negates the capabilities of IR sensors and that microwave sensors will be needed for temperature estimations for 500-1000 mb levels.

Gal-Chen, T.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Three-Dimensional Navier-Stokes Calculations Using the Modified Space-Time CESE Method

The space-time conservation element solution element (CESE) method is modified to address the robustness issues of high-aspect-ratio, viscous, near-wall meshes. In this new approach, the dependent variable gradients are evaluated using element edges and the corresponding neighboring solution elements while keeping the original flux integration procedure intact. As such, the excellent flux conservation property is retained and the new edge-based gradients evaluation significantly improves the robustness for high-aspect ratio meshes frequently encountered in three-dimensional, Navier-Stokes calculations. The order of accuracy of the proposed method is demonstrated for oblique acoustic wave propagation, shock-wave interaction, and hypersonic flows over a blunt body. The confirmed second-order convergence along with the enhanced robustness in handling hypersonic blunt body flow calculations makes the proposed approach a very competitive CFD framework for 3D Navier-Stokes simulations.

Chang, Chau-lyan↗

DOE OSTI2020

Measured Thermal and Fast Neutrons Fluence Rates for ATF-1 Holders During ATR Cycle 166B

This report contains the thermal (2200 m/s) and fast (E>lMeV) neutron fluence rate data for the ATF-1 holders located in core for ATR Cycle 166B which were measured by the Radiation Measurements Laboratory (RML) as requested by the Power Reactor Programs (ATR Experiments) Radiation Measurements Work Order. This report contains measurements of the fluence rates corresponding to the particular elevations relative to the 80-ft. core elevation. The data in this report consist of (1) a table of the ATR power history and distribution, (2) a hard copy listing of all thermal and fast neutron fluence rates, and (3) plots of both the thermal and fast neutron fluence rates. All "BR" holder monitor wires for this cycle are 56.375 inches long. This length allows measurements from 31.17 inches above core midplane to 19.81 inches below core midplane. The distance from the end of the wires to the first count position was 4.25 inches for all wires counted from this cycle. The monitors were located in an outward small I-holes,1-22 and 1-23. Thermal neutron fluence was determined based on the activation of the CoAl wires and resonance corrections determined in the irradiation of Cycle 152A when the RML measured cadmium-covered as well as bare neutron monitors in the Southwest, Southeast, and H positions at the Center lobe to determine the division in neutron energy between epithermal and thermal neutrons. For more information please refer to letter “Radiation Measurements Laboratory measurements of in core ATR physics testing during cycle 152A. The measured values documented in RML procedure, “ACMM-3600, Flux Monitoring,” will be used indefinitely until further measurements supersede the current values. Fast neutron fluence was determined using the activation of nickel wires. Typically, a fission spectrum averaged cross section (E>1 MeV) is used as determined in detailed measurements described in “ATR Neutron Spectral Characterization,” which gives an effective cross section of 97 mb for the small I-holes. However, those measurements were performed with unfueled experiments. The fast fluence values reported here use a perturbed 114 mb effective>1 MeV spectrum averaged cross section for the small I-holes based on MCNP simulations for a previous fueled experiment in the1-24 position. Refer to “LWR- ATR Irradiation Measured Thermal and Fast Neutron Fluence Rates ATR CYCLE 133A 04/19/04 thru 05/17/04” for more information.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Analytical Sensitivity Analysis of a Spent Nuclear Fuel Cask

Here, we report nuclear science and engineering is a field increasingly dominated by computational studies resulting from increasingly powerful computational tools. As a result, analytical studies, which previously pioneered nuclear engineering, are increasingly viewed as secondary or unnecessary. However, analytical solutions to reduced-fidelity models can provide important information concerning the underlying physics of a problem and aid in guiding computational studies. Similarly, there is increased interest in sensitivity analysis studies. These studies commonly use computational tools. However, providing a complementary sensitivity study of relevant analytical models can lead to a deeper analysis of a problem. This work provides the analytical sensitivity analysis of the one-dimensional (1D) cylindrical mono-energetic neutron diffusion equation using the forward sensitivity analysis procedure (FSAP) developed by Cacuci. Further, these results are applied to a reduced-fidelity model of a spent nuclear fuel cask, demonstrating how computational analysis might be improved with a complementary analytic sensitivity analysis.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Beam Dump eXperiment

Hadronic matter makes about 14% of the known universe. The remaining 86% is Dark Matter (DM). Since it does not interact with the ordinary matter via electromagnetic force, DM is not visible and, to date, it escaped detection. The search for Dark Matter (DM) is one of the hottest topic in modern physics. Despite the increasing number of astrophysical and cosmological observations proving the existence, so far no particle physics experiment has detected DM yet. Up to now, most of the experimental efforts have been focused on the so called WIMP (Weakly Interacting Massive Particle) paradigm, which predicts heavy DM (10 GeV-10 TeV mass range) interacting with Standard Model (SM) particles via the weak force mediators (W or Z bosons). More recently, due to the lack of clear evidence of WIMPs, other models of DM gained the interest of the physics community. These models consider Light DM particles (LDM), in MeV-GeV mass range. Among LDM theories, the Dark Photon theory predicts the existence of a Dark Sector interacting with SM particles via a new massive vector boson (Dark Photon, Heavy Photon or A0), mediator of a new force. This scenario, despite being theoretically well motivated, is remarkably experimentally unexplored. The Beam Dump eXperiment (BDX), is an approved experiment at Jefferson Lab (JLab), aiming to discover the DM predicted witihn the Dark Photon theory. The experiment uses the CEBAF (Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility) 11 GeV electron beam, impinging on the JLab Hall-A beam-dump, to produce a beam of DM particles, detected by a ~ 1 m3 detector made of thallium doped cesium iodide (CsI(Tl)) crystals located ~ 20 m downstream. In order to achieve excellent background rejection, the experimental setup includes active vetos and passive shielding surrounding CsI(Tl) crystals. Given the weakness of the DM-SM interaction, the scattering of a DM particle in the BDX detector is a rare event. Therefore, the characterization of the expected background is a critical aspect of the experiment. Both cosmogenic and penetrating SM particles produced by the beam interaction in the dump contribute to the background of the experiment. While the cosmogenic contribution can be measured during the experiment when the beam is off, beam-related background can only be estimated via Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. Therefore, a careful assessment of possible systematics introduced by the MC is needed. The beam-correlated background characterization was made by measuring the muon flux produced by the interaction of the CEBAF beam with Hall-A dump in a dedicated experimental campaign in spring 2018 [1]. The comparison to the ?ux predicted by MC allowed us to validate the BDX simulation framework. The reach of BDX, i.e. the region that the experiment can probe in the LDM theory parameter space, depends critically on the background rejection capability and signal detection effciency. For this reason, the detector setup was fine-tuned through a dedicated study. The response to LDM and background events was evaluated for different setups and selection cuts. As a result of this procedure, the configuration resulting in the best sensitivity was selected [2]. The reach calculation was performed taking into account the different LDM production mechanisms, including the contribution of secondary particles produced in the beam-dump. In particular, the effect of the secondary positrons annihilation was found to be extremely significant. In the majority of the sensitivity studies, this contribution is neglected, but recent results [3] [4] demonstrated that this process significantly enhances the sensitivity of lepton beam-dump experiments. Currently, the BDX collaboration is focused on the deployment and operation of a small detector, called BDX-MINI, built to perform a preliminary physics measurement searching for LDM at JLab. This test will pave the way to the realization of the full BDX experiment. The measurement is currently ongoing but results are expected by the end of this year. During my PhD I was involved in all aspects of the BDX experiment: design, simulation, prototyping and data analysis. The main results of my work are reported in this thesis. This manuscript is organized as follows: the first Chapter provides an introduction to the theory of LDM, with particular attention to the Dark Photon paradigm; the second Chapter illustrates the BDX experimental setup, the LDM production and detection mechanisms and the expected backgrounds; Chapter 3 and 4 describe, respectively, the BDX-HODO measurement, with a detailed description of the simulations, and the BDX experimental setup and analysis cuts optimization. Chapter 5 reports about BDXMINI detector characterization, calibration and sensitivity estimate. Finally, Chapter 6 describes in detail the calculation of the secondary positron annihilation contribution to the sensitivity of BDX and other electron-beam thick-target experiment.

Marsicano, Luca↗

DOE OSTI2021

Inter-well connectivity detection in CO 2 WAG projects using statistical recurrent unit models

Routine well-wise injection and production measurements contain significant information on subsurface structure and properties. Data-driven technology that interprets surface data into subsurface structure or properties can assist operators in making informed decisions by providing a better understanding of field assets. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO 2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. SRU is a special type of recurrent neural network (RNN) that allows for better characterization of temporal trends, by learning various statistics of the input at different time scales. In our application, the complete states (injection rate, pressure and cumulative injection) at injectors and pressure states at producers are fed to SRU as the input and the phase rates at producers are treated as the output. Once the SRU is trained and validated, it is then used to assess the connectivity of each injector to any producer using permutation variable importance method, wherein inputs corresponding to an injector are shuffled and the increase in prediction error at a given producer is recorded as the importance (connectivity metric) of the injector to the producer. This method is tested in both synthetic and field-scale cases. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. This significantly improves confidence in our data-driven procedure. The novelty of this work is that it is purely data-driven method and can directly interpret routine surface measurements to intuitive subsurface knowledge. Furthermore, the streamline-based validation procedure provides physics-based backing to the results obtained from data analytics. This study results in a reliable and efficient data analytics framework that is well-suited for large field applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗