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DOE OSTI2024

Roadmap on methods and software for electronic structure based simulations in chemistry and materials

This Roadmap article provides a succinct, comprehensive overview of the state of electronic structure methods and software for molecular and materials simulations. Seventeen distinct sections collect insights by 51 leading scientists in the field. Each contribution addresses the status of a particular area, as well as current challenges and anticipated future advances, with a particular eye towards software related aspects and providing key references for further reading. Foundational sections cover density functional theory and its implementation in real-world simulation frameworks, Green's function based many-body perturbation theory, wave-function based and stochastic electronic structure approaches, relativistic effects and semiempirical electronic structure theory approaches. Subsequent sections cover nuclear quantum effects, real-time propagation of the electronic structure, challenges for computational spectroscopy simulations, and exploration of complex potential energy surfaces. The final sections summarize practical aspects, including computational workflows for complex simulation tasks, the impact of current and future high-performance computing architectures, software engineering practices, education and training to maintain and broaden the community, as well as the status of and needs for electronic structure based modeling from the vantage point of industry environments. Overall, the field of electronic structure software and method development continues to unlock immense opportunities for future scientific discovery, based on the growing ability of computations to reveal complex phenomena, processes and properties that are determined by the make-up of matter at the atomic scale, with high precision.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Updating the BNB Flux Prediction at SBND

Precise, accurate neutrino flux predictions for neutrino beam experiments are crucial for physics results. Flux uncertainties contribute significantly to the total systematic uncertainties seen in modern accelerator neutrino measurements such as cross sections, oscillations, and BSM studies.. For over a decade, experiments utilizing Fermilab’s Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) have relied on the 2009 MiniBooNE flux prediction. However, the high-statistics era of the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program, with both SBND and ICARUS now operating, demands a modernized flux model and framework. While SBND is using the MiniBooNE flux model for its Generation 1 analyses, including many upcoming cross section measurements, future work will be based on a new flux model. In this talk, the ongoing work towards this new model will be outlined, including a new simulation framework (G4BNB), a new evaluation of model parameters from hadron scattering data, and a new framework for evaluating systematic uncertainties (BNBFP). Additionally, expansions to the flux model to include BSM contributions from neutral mesons will be discussed, as well as the PRISM capabilities of SBND to observe a wide range of off axis angles of the neutrino beam.

Paton, Josephine [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Updating the BNB Flux Prediction at SBND

Paton, Josephine [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2025

DEMOS (Demographic Microsimulator Tool for Longitudinal Synthetic Population) [SWR-25-135] related to NLR SWR-26-076

The Demographic Microsimulator (DEMOS) is an agent-based simulation framework used to model the evolution of population demographic characteristics and lifecycle events, such as education attainment, marital status, and other key transitions. DEMOS modules are designed to capture the interdependencies between short-term and long-term lifecycle events, which are often influential in downstream transportation and land-use modeling. A key feature of DEMOS is its ability to track changes in an agent’s demographic status from year t to year t + 1. This structure allows the model to evolve populations over any user-defined time horizon. As a result, DEMOS is well suited for analyzing medium- and long-term transportation-related decisions, including household vehicle transactions (e.g., purchasing, selling, or replacing vehicles) and work location choices. Core features of DEMOS include the modeling of more than ten lifecycle events, behaviorally realistic patterns informed by long-running panel data, explicit representation of interdependencies among lifecycle processes, and a flexible, modular simulation architecture. A technical memorandum describing DEMOS is available here. The memorandum provides an overview of the framework’s functionality, model structure, input and output data, and its applications in transportation planning and broader policy analysis contexts. Interested readers are also encouraged to consult the paper listed below for additional details on the DEMOS methodology. Sun, Bingrong, Shivam Sharda, Venu M. Garikapati, Mohamed Amine Bouzaghrane, Juan Caicedo, Srinath Ravulaparthy, Isabel Viegas de Lima, Ling Jin, C. Anna Spurlock, and Paul Waddell. "Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life." Transportation Research Record (2025): 03611981251333339.

Sun, Bingrong [National Laboratory of the Rockies ↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Scientist-in-the-Loop Data Analytics Framework for Intelligent Simulation Model Tuning and Validation

This project developed a scientist-in-the-loop data analytics framework for intelligent simulation model tuning and validation, targeting the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its solar energy variant, WRF-Solar-BNL. Domain experts, such as climate scientists, depend on large-scale numerical simulations for knowledge discovery and decision-making, yet the complexity of parameter tuning and the disconnect between automated optimization and domain expertise pose significant challenges. We extended an interactive visual analytics framework that enables domain experts to observe and intervene in the computational steering process by identifying disagreements between the simulation model, surrogate model, and the expert’s domain knowledge. Using Bayesian Optimization with Gaussian Process Regression as the surrogate model, our system allows users to probe parameter relationships, analyze correlation patterns, and adjust tuning parameters in real time. We developed use cases for solar irradiance forecasting through sustained collaboration with Brookhaven National Laboratory, resolving critical model configuration challenges and achieving meaningful reductions in prediction error. The project supported one PhD student, one MS student, and eight undergraduate students across three Data Science Capstone projects, resulting in one master’s thesis.

Dasgupta, Aritra [New Jersey Institute of Technolo↗

DOE OSTI2025

Designing a quantum-accurate machine-learning potential to enable large-scale simulations of deuterium under shock

Large-scale molecular dynamics of deuterium under shock can elucidate kinetic processes vital to the target design in inertial confinement fusion and high-energy-density experiments. However, modeling the complex evolution of this material from an insulating molecular state at ambient pressure to an ionized, atomic fluid under strong shock is beyond the capability of simple pair and even bond order potentials. We thus train a quantum-accurate and broadly transferable machine-learning interatomic potential for deuterium using the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulations framework. We show that due to an improved description of the molecular-to-atomic transition, our model is able to better reproduce the ab initio equation of state, radial distribution functions, and principal Hugoniot than bond order potentials. This represents an important step toward large-scale quantum-accurate and nonequilibrium simulations of complicated systems under dynamic changes including phase transitions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating a Transition-jump System for the Fermilab Main Injector Using Xsuite

We describe an Xsuite simulation framework for the Fermilab Main Injector (MI) along with an evaluation of transition-crossing behaviors in the accelerator. In particular, we studied the introduction of quadrupole magnets into the lattice as part of a transition-jump system that will be implemented through the $2^{nd}$ Proton Improvement Plan (PIP-II). Simulated beam losses spurred by transition-induced instabilities were assessed under several systematic effects, including MI quad errors, magnet-to-magnet variability in the jump magnets, power-supply errors, and timing jitter.

Schreckenberger, A. P. [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000016↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating a Transition-Jump System for the Fermilab Main Injector Using Xsuite

Schreckenberger, Adam Paul [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000↗

DOE OSTI2025

5G-TSN Architecture Capable of Providing Real-time Situational Awareness to Fossil-Energy (FE) Generation Systems (Final Technical Report)

This final report highlights the comprehensive achievements of the project focused on developing and validating a 5G-Time Sensitive Networking (TSN) architecture tailored for real-time operational awareness in fossil energy systems. The initiative successfully advanced through a series of technical milestones, including the integration of EMI-aware network models, deployment of advanced simulation frameworks, and real-world performance characterization at key sites such as UTEP and Fabens. Through the strategic use of NetSim® software, the team created and validated network configurations for wired and wireless environments, tested under varying congestion conditions, and verified network slicing implementations for URLLC-specific applications. Major accomplishments include the migration of simulation tools to the latest NetSim® version to support accurate modeling of TSN and network slicing, extensive EMI measurement campaigns, and the development of a robust simulation model for end-to-end SCADA system integration. Simulations compared both TDD and FDD duplexing modes, revealing insights into their performance under congested conditions. The wireless network was benchmarked for throughput, jitter, and delay metrics, aligning with 3GPP Release 15/16 and IEEE 802.1-TSN standards. A peer-reviewed conference paper was accepted and published, contributing to the broader academic and industrial discourse on 5G-TSN integration in energy systems, in addition to a journal article. Despite minor delays due to software limitations, the project achieved its objectives and delivered validated architecture ready for deployment in advanced energy network environments.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reliability Analysis of Power Grids Considering Component Failures of Variable Energy Resources

This paper proposes an improved model for the reliability assessment of power systems considering component failures of variable energy resources (VER). The inherent intermittency of VER such as solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind farms, along with their susceptibility to component failures, present significant challenges to reliable system operation. These issues, combined with power grid operation and network constraints, complicate the reliable operation of VER-integrated power systems. Here, to address these concerns, this paper introduces a reliability assessment framework that considers VER input variability, its impact on component availability, and their resulting impact on overall system reliability. Stochastic models based on discrete Markov processes are developed to incorporate variable irradiance, wind speeds, and their effects on PV and wind component failure rates. A next-event and state transition-based approach is then developed to integrate the stochastic models into a mixed-timing sequential Monte Carlo simulation framework for composite reliability assessment. Case studies on the RTS-GMLC system demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model in evaluating the reliability of VER-integrated systems.

Pandit, Dilip [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-N↗

DOE OSTI2026

Computational modeling of graphite degradation in molten salt reactors: Role of infiltration

Molten salt reactors (MSRs) often employ graphite as a moderator and reflector. An important challenge for deploying graphite in these reactors is that, due to limited experimental data, our understanding of graphite’s structural integrity in molten salt environments remains incomplete. Here, this study addresses heat generation from fuel-bearing salt that has infiltrated open pores in the graphite, driven primarily by pressure differentials. This is one of multiple identified physical and chemical mechanisms through which molten salt could potentially degrade graphite. Thermally driven stresses are quantified using the Molten-Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) graphite moderator elements as a case study. Finite element simulations predict stress distributions at varying infiltration levels, indicating that thermal stresses increase with higher infiltration. Rare-event simulations using the parallel subset simulation framework identify the combinations and corresponding ranges of input parameters that lead to stresses above a specified threshold. In particular, combinations involving high infiltration amounts, high power density, and low thermal conductivity tend to induce the highest stresses. Under the inputs and assumptions considered in this work, the magnitudes of the thermally driven stresses are quite low, with a very low likelihood of causing failure due to exceeding the graphite’s tensile strength. Additionally, rare-event simulations were performed for two more scenarios: a scaled-up moderator geometry and a localized hotspot in the original geometry. Both cases resulted in increased susceptibility to failure, though not to a detrimental extent. Furthermore, the combined effects of irradiation and infiltration-induced thermal stresses were evaluated. The results showed that thermal stresses from infiltration were negligible compared to those caused by irradiation. The findings of such a study are inherently component-specific, but the methodology presented here could be used for similar assessments of salt-infiltration effects in other graphite components.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Balance of Plant Modeling and Real-Time Hardware-in-the-Loop Integration with the Microreactor Automated Control System

The advent of novel microreactor technology has driven a focused effort to explore safety and efficiency improvements that can be achieved through the use of automated system control. Development of control strategies, especially for initial demonstration, requires an adequate surrogate environment to safely research failure modes and control integration with realistic hardware delay. However, efficiency gains from control strategies are improved when the scope of controller action is expanded to include system-level dynamics such as downstream heat extraction and mass flow. For this reason, a balance-of-plant (BOP) model of a representative microreactor system has been developed using the TRANsient Simulation Framework of Reconfigurable Models library in Modelica. This model captures a reactor and primary NaK coolant loop that represent corresponding system components of the Microreactor Applications Research Validation and EvaLuation (MARVEL) design as well as a secondary coolant loop and heat extraction representative of the Microreactor Agile Non-Nuclear Experimental Test Bed (MAGNET). This model configuration allows for hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) integration with microreactor automated control system (MACS) hardware in real time through a Python-based gRPC client. Real-time simulation of model performance with emulated hardware and communication delay suggests that under independent proportional-integral-derivative control of BOP model drum dynamics and downstream heat extraction, stable power load following is achievable. A slight delay in load following, filtering of high-frequency dynamics, and localized temperature fluctation suggest room for improvement through the development of higher-level control strategies. The simulated coupling of the MAGNET facility lays the groundwork for future digital twin analysis with a coupled MACS-MAGNET HIL demonstration.

McConnell, Jono [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000238984741)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Short-Term Forecasting of Thermostatic and Residential Loads Using Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Networks

Internet of Things (IoT) devices in smart grids enable intelligent energy management for grid managers and personalized energy services for consumers. Investigating a smart grid with IoT devices requires a simulation framework with IoT devices modeling. However, there lack comprehensive study on the modeling of IoT devices in smart grids. This paper investigates the IoT device modeling of a thermostatic load and implements the recurrent neural networks model for short-term load forecasting in this IoT-based thermostatic load. The recurrent neural network structure is leveraged to build a load forecasting model on temporal correlation. The temporal recurrent neural network layers including long short-term memory cells are employed to learn the data from both the simulation platform and New South Wales residential datasets. The simulation results are provided for demonstration.

electric load forecasting↗

DOE OSTI2026

An Uncertainty-Informed and High-Fidelity Performance Forecasting Framework for Heliostat Fields

Concentrating Solar Thermal (CST) tower systems employ heliostat fields to direct solar energy to a central receiver, which then transfers the heat either directly to a thermal process (e.g., steam production) or to a thermal energy storage system for future use. Heliostat fields compose a significant proportion of the project costs of a CST tower system and the performance of the heliostats determines a plant's productivity at a given location. While CST characterization tools such as SolarPILOT and System Advisor Model (SAM) include a large collection of inputs that influence the performance of a CST tower system, many are uncertain prior to the development of the project and may have a significant impact on the overall energy delivery and profitability of a project; moreover, the fidelity of these models under default conditions may be insufficient to determine the value of component improvements such as those under development in the Heliostat Consortium. This work introduces a Monte Carlo simulation framework that incorporates uncertainty in key performance parameters to generate confidence intervals and percentile estimates for a CST solar field's energy delivery.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Thermo-Fluid Modeling Framework for Supercomputer Digital Twins: Part 1, Demonstration at Exascale

A thermo-fluid modeling framework is being developed for ExaDigiT---an open-source framework for developing comprehensive digital twins of liquid-cooled supercomputers. The work is being conducted in two parts, and discussion is divided into two companion papers. The work documented in this paper focuses on the development of a cooling system library in Dymola for the Frontier supercomputer at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The second part, outlined in a companion paper, focuses on a templating structure called Auto-CSM for easily creating model-agnostic, physics-based thermo-fluid cooling system models for liquid-cooled supercomputers using a text-based schema. The cooling model is being developed using primarily the open-source Transient Simulation Framework of Reconfigurable Models (TRANSFORM) library. The library follows the templating architecture developed within the TRANSFORM library for modeling subsystems. A full-system validation was performed to validate a very simple model that is integrated with the system controls, and the results are presented herein.

Kumar, Vineet↗

DOE OSTI2025

An open-access simulated earthquake ground-motion database for an M7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region

Comprehensive understanding of earthquake ground motions, particularly in the near-fault region of large-magnitude events, is limited by gaps in strong-motion data. This challenge is prominent in areas with high seismic hazard but infrequent large earthquakes where data is sparse and difficult to interpret. These data limitations lead to uncertainties in the development of site-specific ground motions, which are crucial for engineering risk assessments. To address these challenges, physics-based regional-scale ground-motion simulations have been developed. With the emergence of exaflop-scale computing ecosystems, it is now possible to simulate regional earthquake processes at unprecedented fidelity and generate the large number of fault rupture realizations necessary to characterize both intra- and inter-event ground-motion variability. This article introduces a new database of simulated earthquake ground motions, created for applications in earthquake engineering, earthquake planning, and emergency response. The inaugural version of the database features simulated ground motions for a magnitude 7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region (SFBR), using the EarthQuake SIMulation (EQSIM) simulation framework and the Graves–Pitarka kinematic rupture model. The aim is to provide high-fidelity, spatially dense, three-component motions generated on the Department of Energy’s (DOE) newest generation of graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated supercomputers. These motions are being made openly available to the engineering, scientific, and disaster planning communities. In addition, this work develops protocols for the efficient dissemination of these large data sets and emphasizes community engagement to build confidence in their application. This article discusses the methodology behind the data, underlying software verification and validation, scalable data management, and a user interface for data access. The goal is to facilitate widespread use and elicit expert feedback to maximize the utility and exploitation of simulated motions. While the initial focus is on the San Francisco Region, simulations for additional regions will be added as the DOE program progresses.

Simulated ground-motion database↗

DOE OSTI2025

CALPHAD-based ICME design of single-step aging to enhance mechanical strength of WAAM Haynes 282

To match the strength of wire-arc additive manufactured Haynes 282 to its wrought counterpart via a single-step aging heat treatment, the CALPHAD (Calculation of Phase Diagrams) method is integrated with physics-based process-structure-property models and experimental validation. The integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) framework simulates the effects of aging on γ′ and M 23 C 6 precipitation and the resulting yield strength. To improve simulation reliability, the interfacial energies between γ/γ′ and γ/M 23 C 6 carbides were estimated by comparison with precipitation kinetic modeling and measured precipitate sizes. γ′ and M23C6 were found to precipitate simultaneously between 640 and 860 °C, producing microstructures similar to those produced by two-step aging. The optimal γ′ size for peak yield stress was calculated to be 20–23 nm. WAAM Haynes 282 aged at 780 °C for 50 h exceeded the mechanical performance of its wrought counterpart subjected to two-step aging, though desired properties can also be achieved at 800 °C for 16 h or less. The error in yield strength is less than 20 MPa, demonstrating good agreement between the modeling framework and experiments. Creep studies showed that WAAM Haynes 282 exceeded the calculated rupture time, reaching 481 h. This proposed methodology can accelerate the design of aging heat treatments for any γ′-strengthened nickel-base alloy, minimizing the resources required for trial-and-error experiments.

CALPHAD↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data Driven Correlated Noise Simulation for the ICEBERG LArTPC

Accurate electronic-noise simulation is essential for low-energy physics in liquid-argon TPCs. More realistic noise modeling allows us to better tune reconstruction algorithms and more reliably assess and optimize signal-detection thresholds. We present a data-driven noise simulation framework developed for the ICEBERG test stand for DUNE that generates synthetic noise waveforms that reproduce both (i) the measured per-channel magnitude of the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) and (ii) frequency-dependent channel-to-channel correlations observed in ICEBERG noise data. Using a dedicated noise-only dataset, we build a compact noise model containing per-channel FFT-magnitude targets together with a small set of band-wise cross-wire color matrices. White noise is generated in the frequency domain by drawing circular-symmetric complex Gaussian coefficients with random phases and scaling them to match the measured FFT-magnitude targets, and cross-wire correlations are subsequently imposed using the stored color matrices. The model and algorithm were integrated into the LArSoft + Wire-Cell Toolkit simulation chain and validated by comparing waveform structure, frequency-domain spectra, and band-limited correlation matrices from simulated noise and ICEBERG data. This approach can be extended to other LArTPC operating conditions.

Ghosh, Avik [Iowa State U.]↗