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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Turbulence and Dispersion in Multiscale Atmospheric Simulations over Complex Urban Terrain during the Joint Urban 2003 Field Campaign

Abstract This paper evaluates the representation of turbulence and its effect on transport and dispersion within multiscale and microscale-only simulations in an urban environment. These simulations, run using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the addition of an immersed boundary method, predict transport and mixing during a controlled tracer release from the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. This work extends the results of a recent study through analysis of turbulence kinetic energy and turbulence spectra and their role in accurately simulating wind speed, direction, and tracer concentration. The significance and role of surface heat fluxes and use of the cell perturbation method in the numerical simulation setup are also examined. Our previous study detailed the model development necessary for our multiscale simulations, examined model skill at predicting wind speeds and tracer concentrations, and demonstrated that dynamic downscaling from mesoscale to microscale through a sequence of nested simulations can improve predictions of transport and dispersion relative to a microscale-only simulation forced by idealized meteorology. Here, predictions are compared with observations to assess qualitative agreement and statistical model skill at predicting wind speed, wind direction, tracer concentration, and turbulent kinetic energy at locations throughout the city. We also investigate the scale distribution of turbulence and the associated impact on model skill, particularly for predictions of transport and dispersion. Our results show that downscaled large-scale turbulence, which is unique to the multiscale simulations, significantly improves predictions of tracer concentrations in this complex urban environment. Significance Statement Simulations of atmospheric transport and mixing in urban environments have many applications, including pollution modeling for urban planning or informing emergency response following a hazardous release. These applications include phenomena with spatial scales spanning from millimeters to kilometers. Most simulations resolve flow only within the urban area of interest, omitting larger scales of turbulence and regional influences. This study examines a method that resolves both the small and large-scale flow features. We evaluate simulation accuracy by comparing predictions with observations from an experiment involving the release of a tracer gas in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, with emphasis on correctly modeling turbulent fluctuations. Our results demonstrate the importance of resolving large-scale flow features when predicting transport and dispersion in urban environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurements and Model Improvement: Insight into NWP Model Error Using Doppler Lidar and Other WFIP2 Measurement Systems

Abstract Doppler-lidar wind-profile measurements at three sites were used to evaluate NWP model errors from two versions of NOAA’s 3-km-grid HRRR model, to see whether updates in the latest version 4 reduced errors when compared against the original version 1. Nested (750-m grid) versions of each were also tested to see how grid spacing affected forecast skill. The measurements were part of the field phase of the Second Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP2), an 18-month deployment into central Oregon–Washington, a major wind-energy-producing region. This study focuses on errors in simulating marine intrusions, a summertime, 600–800-m-deep, regional sea-breeze flow found to generate large errors. HRRR errors proved to be complex and site dependent. The most prominent error resulted from a premature drop in modeled marine-intrusion wind speeds after local midnight, when lidar-measured winds of greater than 8 m s −1 persisted through the next morning. These large negative errors were offset at low levels by positive errors due to excessive mixing, complicating the interpretation of model “improvement,” such that the updates to the full-scale versions produced mixed results, sometimes enhancing but sometimes degrading model skill. Nesting consistently improved model performance, with version 1’s nest producing the smallest errors overall. HRRR’s ability to represent the stages of sea-breeze forcing was evaluated using radiation budget, surface-energy balance, and near-surface temperature measurements available during WFIP2. The significant site-to-site differences in model error and the complex nature of these errors mean that field-measurement campaigns having dense arrays of profiling sensors are necessary to properly diagnose and characterize model errors, as part of a systematic approach to NWP model improvement. Significance Statement Dramatic increases in NWP model skill will be required over the coming decades. This paper describes the role of major deployments of accurate profiling sensors in achieving that goal and presents an example from the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Program (WFIP2). Wind-profile data from scanning Doppler lidars were used to evaluate two versions of HRRR, the original and an updated version, and nested versions of each. This study focuses on the ability of updated HRRR versions to improve upon predicting a regional sea-breeze flow, which was found to generate large errors by the original HRRR. Updates to the full-scale HRRR versions produced mixed results, but the finer-mesh versions consistently reduced model errors.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model Evaluation by Measurements from Collocated Remote Sensors in Complex Terrain

Model improvement efforts involve an evaluation of changes in model skill in response to changes in model physics and parameterization. When using wind measurements from various remote sensors to determine model forecast accuracy, it is important to understand the effects of measurement-uncertainty differences among the sensors resulting from differences in the methods of measurement, the vertical and temporal resolution of the measurements, and the spatial variability of these differences. Here we quantify instrument measurement variability in 80-m wind speed during WFIP2 and its impact on the calculated errors and the change in error from one model version to another. Here the model versions tested involved updates in model physics from HRRRv1 to HRRRv4, and reductions in grid interval from 3 km to 750 m. Model errors were found to be 2–3 m s –1 . Differences in errors as determined by various instruments at each site amounted to about 10% of this value, or 0.2–0.3 m s –1 . Changes in model skill due to physics or grid-resolution updates also differed depending on the instrument used to determine the errors; most of the instrument-to-instrument differences were ~0.1 m s –1 , but some reached 0.3 m s –1 . All instruments at a given site mostly showed consistency in the sign of the change in error. In two examples, though, the sign changed, illustrating a consequence of differences in measurements: errors determined using one instrument may show improvement in model skill, whereas errors determined using another instrument may indicate degradation. This possibility underscores the importance of having accurate measurements to determine the model error.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ten Simple Rules to becoming a principal investigator

The biggest choke point in an academic career is going from postdoc to principal investigator (PI), moving from doing someone else’s research to getting other people to do yours. It is not an easy transition, draws on few of the skills you learn at the bench and the odds are clearly not ever in your favour. So calling this article ten simple rules is obviously a simplification: it is more accurate to call them ten tricky steps. In this article, we use Principal Investigator to mean anyone who runs their own research group, using funding that they have been awarded to answer their own questions. PI encompasses a number of different job titles depending on where the research is performed – fellow, lecturer, associate professor, senior scientist. The acid test is whether you can describe the people working for you as the X group, where X is your surname. The normal route from undergraduate to lab head involves a PhD, one or most postdoc positions and then PI. Given the diversity of ways to be a PI, the final step up from postdoc takes a number of forms – in the UK this tends to be either an individual fellowship or a lecturer position, in the US it generally starts with an independent position with associated funding – either as a startup package or funded grant. The aim of this article is to identify some of the broader skills (rules 1-4) and behaviours (rules 5-10) that can help with becoming a PI. They are meant as advice, not instruction. As you will see, most of them are soft/ leadership skills, which can as easily be applied to the world outside academia as within it.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org ). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1–4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning for postprocessing ensemble streamflow forecasts

Skillful streamflow forecasts can inform decisions in various areas of water policy and management. We integrate numerical weather prediction ensembles, distributed hydrological model, and machine learning to generate ensemble streamflow forecasts at medium-range lead times (1–7 days). We demonstrate the application of machine learning as postprocessor for improving the quality of ensemble streamflow forecasts. Our results show that the machine learning postprocessor can improve streamflow forecasts relative to low-complexity forecasts (e.g., climatological and temporal persistence) as well as standalone hydrometeorological modeling and neural network. The relative gain in forecast skill from postprocessor is generally higher at medium-range timescales compared to shorter lead times; high flows compared to low–moderate flows, and the warm season compared to the cool ones. Overall, our results highlight the benefits of machine learning in many aspects for improving both the skill and reliability of streamflow forecasts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

We Are Hiring

At Los Alamos you get an internship customized to your skill level. You receive technical mentoring and professional skill-building opportunities. This is all while working on exciting physics problems. The result? Valuable hands-on experience to help you make decisions about your future. Physics Division can help you expand your horizons, whether you are an undergraduate or graduate student seeking a one-of-a-kind summer internship experience or a post-bachelor’s or post-master’s student ready to hone your experimental research skills.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

LANL/UTEP Metallurgical Science Center of Excellence Planning

LANL seeks research assistance and skills development in three distinct subject areas over the next three years. Individualized scope and detail implementation schedules will be the first deliverable for these subject areas and will represent a joint determination between LANL SMEs and UTEP faculty based on LANL priority (schedule) and UTEP staffing (faculty and student- graduate and undergraduate) and capability of immediate availability per schedule. LANL will endeavor to make summer internships available to UTEP students within these subject areas: Chemical Sciences, Additive Manufacturing, and Metallurgy: casting and solidification, characterization, and metal purification. Unarticulated but generalized scoping tasks follow within each topical area to indicate that students and technicians familiar with these skill sets are of value and interest in LANL workforce pipeline and the tasks that seek to develop these skill sets are intentional on LANL's part. Consequently, LANL will sponsor 2-3 senior (capstone) projects within these subject areas per year over the three year time period within these task areas and within separations technologies, wet chemical analysis, and analytical characterization and quantification as required by all tasks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Proposed Critical Thinking Metrics for Power Grid Trainees

The TRS Intro to Critical Thinking for Operational Decision-Making course for power grid operators seeks to help trainees improve their use of critical thinking skills in operation environments. To determine the effectiveness of this training, we have identified 3 categories of evaluation measures: critical thinking metrics, situation awareness (SA) evaluations, and behavioral observations. Critical thinking metrics seek to directly measure trainee’s ability to use critical thinking skills through their verbalized responses to different questions or scenarios. SA will be evaluated during various points throughout simulated exercises completed during the training. SA evaluations aim to determine the level of a trainee’s ability to perceive, comprehend and anticipate events in the operational environment. This construct will be assessed through verbalized responses to questions informed by the Situation Awareness Global Assessment Technique (SAGAT). Behavioral observations capture how trainees use the system, including which simulator displays or windows they use or actions they perform and in what order. These observations help us understand how the critical thinking training may inform operator action. We hypothesize that while these measures are correlated with each other, they provide different perspectives on each trainee’s ability to gain SA and use critical thinking skills in operation environments. By comparing these measures in a pre-assessment and a post-assessment, we can determine how much improvement a trainee gains through the training. These measures may also be used during the training as appropriate. This document specifies these 3 categories of measures, which components of these measures currently seem to be the best candidates to use in the training course, and which parts of the training course is related to each component.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Toddler home math environment: Triangulating multi-method assessments in a U.S. Sample

Introduction Current research has documented the home math environment (HME) of preschoolers and kindergarteners. Very few studies, however, have explored the number and spatial activities in which parents engage with children during their toddler years. Methods This study examined the HME of 157 toddlers using several methodologies, including surveys, time diaries, and observations of math talk. Further, it examined correlations within and across data sources to identify areas of convergence and triangulation, and correlated HME measures with measures of toddlers’ number and spatial skills. Results Findings showed that, in general, uses of different types of math activities, including both number and spatial, were intercorrelated within method. Across methods, there was high intercorrelation between the frequency of math activities reported on parent surveys and the diversity of types of math activities endorsed in time diary interviews. Parent math talk gleaned from semi-structured interviews functioned as a separate aspect of the HME; different types of math talk shared few intercorrelations with engagement in math activities as reported in either surveys or time diaries. Finally, several HME measures positively correlated with toddlers’ math skills. Discussion Given extant research demonstrating that both math activities and math talk predict children’s math skills, our results stress the need for multimethod studies that differentiate among these HME opportunities.

Miller, Portia↗
DOE OSTI2023

Physical Education Teachers’ Representations of Their Training to Promote the Inclusion of Students with Disabilities

School inclusion is based on the need to adopt and implement a holistic view of education, training, and human development embodied in the idea of everyone, for everyone. In the context of Physical Education (PE), there are still several constraints to the realization of this universal desideratum. Among these, teacher training and qualification for the inclusion of students with Specific Health Needs (SHNs) stands out. That is, students with physical and mental health problems whose impact is significantly manifested in the learning process. Thus, the objective of this study was to identify the representations of PE teachers about their training to develop inclusive processes with students with SES. Participants in this study were 151 PE teachers from different regions and districts of Portugal (Algarve, Aveiro, Castelo Branco, Lisbon, Porto, and Viseu) who had 23.6 ± 8.1 years of teaching service. Teachers answered an online questionnaire, on the Google Forms platform, with open and closed questions about their education and training to develop inclusive processes in PE. The results indicate two significant dimensions: (1) initial training for teaching inclusive PE and (2) continuous training for inclusion. Regarding initial training, a large majority of the teachers under study, at the end of their initial training, did not have the essential skills to teach PE to students with SES. It was also identified that a large majority reported not having had any contact with students with SES throughout their training process for teaching. It was also recognized that this training was not adjusted to the development of intervention skills with students with SHN. Regarding continuous training, it was identified that attendance at this training increased their skills to teach PE to students with SHN. Workshops/actions/training courses are the main training models adopted. However, it is recognized that the training provided does not respond concretely to their training needs to intervene with students with SHN, since teachers essentially seek to improve intervention in the context of inclusive physical education. We conclude that teacher training for inclusion is not yet fully adjusted to the reality of the inclusive school paradigm. In this sense, in practical terms, the following are suggested: (1) the need for reinforcement in study plans with specific and long-term curricular units; (2) the introduction of real practice components in context; and (3) supervised pedagogical practice in diverse contexts.

Celestino, Tadeu (ORCID:0000000163087981)↗
DOE OSTI2020

An evaluation of global organic aerosol schemes using airborne observations

Chemical transport models have historically struggled to accurately simulate the magnitude and variability of observed organic aerosol (OA), with previous studies demonstrating that models significantly underestimate observed concentrations in the troposphere. In this study, we explore two different model OA schemes within the standard GEOS-Chem chemical transport model and evaluate the simulations against a suite of 15 globally distributed airborne campaigns from 2008 to 2017, primarily in the spring and summer seasons. These include the ATom, KORUS-AQ, GoAmazon,FRAPPE, SEAC4RS, SENEX, DC3, CalNex, OP3, EUCAARI, ARCTAS and ARCPAC campaigns and provide broad coverage over a diverse set of atmospheric composition regimes – anthropogenic, biogenic, pyrogenic and remote. The schemes include significant differences in their treatment of the primary and secondary components of OA – a “simple scheme” that models primary OA (POA) as non-volatile and takes a fixed-yield approach to secondary OA (SOA) formation and a “complex scheme” that simulates POA as semi-volatile and uses a more sophisticated volatility basis set approach for non-isoprene SOA, with an explicit aqueous uptake mechanism to model isoprene SOA. Despite these substantial differences, both the simple and complex schemes perform comparably across the aggregate dataset in their ability to capture the observed variability (with an R2 of 0.41 and 0.44, respectively). The simple scheme displays greater skill in minimizing the overall model bias (with a normalized mean bias of 0.04 compared to 0.30 for the complex scheme). Across both schemes, the model skill in reproducing observed OA is superior to previous model evaluations and approaches the fidelity of the sulfate simulation within the GEOS-Chem model. However,there are significant differences in model performance across different chemical source regimes, classified here into seven categories.Higher-resolution nested regional simulations indicate that model resolution is an important factor in capturing variability in highly localized campaigns, while also demonstrating the importance of well-constrained emissions inventories and local meteorology, particularly over Asia. Our analysis suggests that a semi-volatile treatment of POA is superior to anon-volatile treatment. It is also likely that the complex scheme parameterization overestimates biogenic SOA at the global scale. While this study identifies factors within the SOA schemes that likely contribute to OA model bias (such as a strong dependency of the bias in the complex scheme on relative humidity and sulfate concentrations), comparisons with the skill of the sulfate aerosol scheme in GEOS-Chem indicate the importance of other drivers of bias, such as emissions, transport and deposition, that are exogenous to the OA chemical scheme.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) prediction system using the Community Earth System Model version 2

Abstract. The potential for multiyear prediction of impactful Earth system change remains relatively underexplored compared to shorter (subseasonal to seasonal) and longer (decadal) timescales. In this study, we introduce a new initialized prediction system using the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) that is specifically designed to probe potential and actual prediction skill at lead times ranging from 1 month out to 2 years. The Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) consists of a collection of 2-year-long hindcast simulations, with four initializations per year from 1970 to 2019 and an ensemble size of 20. A full suite of output is available for exploring near-term predictability of all Earth system components represented in CESM2. We show that SMYLE skill for El Niño–Southern Oscillation is competitive with other prominent seasonal prediction systems, with correlations exceeding 0.5 beyond a lead time of 12 months. A broad overview of prediction skill reveals varying degrees of potential for useful multiyear predictions of seasonal anomalies in the atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice. The SMYLE dataset, experimental design, model, initial conditions, and associated analysis tools are all publicly available, providing a foundation for research on multiyear prediction of environmental change by the wider community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

New framework for benchmarking decadal predictions leveraging the PCMDI Metric Package with interactive visualization

Reliable climate predictions across multiple timescales are increasingly critical as climate-related risks continue to rise. With the growing number and diversity of climate prediction systems, systematic intercomparison has become essential. Here, we present a comprehensive evaluation framework based on the PCMDI Metric Package to assess the performance of multiple decadal climate prediction systems. Unlike uninitialized simulations, initialized predictions exhibit bias and predictive skill that evolve with forecast lead time. To address this, we introduce (1) model-by-lead-time portrait plots, which efficiently summarize metrics of global temperature, precipitation, and Arctic/Antarctic sea-ice extent, and (2) an HTML-based interactive visualization platform that provides detailed regional and seasonal diagnostics of model bias, skill scores, and ensemble spread for each model and lead time. Comparisons with uninitialized simulations further quantify the relative impacts of initialization and external forcing on prediction skill. The proposed framework provides a scalable and transparent approach for multi-model climate prediction assessments and can be readily extended to a wide range of operational and research forecasting systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transforming U.S. Particle Physics Education: A Snowmass 2021 Study

The pursuit of knowledge in particle physics requires constant learning. As new tools become available, new theories are developed, and physicists search for new answers with ever-evolving methods. However, it is the case that formal educational systems serve as the primary training grounds for particle physicists. Graduate school (and undergraduate school to a lesser extent) is where researchers learn most of the technical skills required for research, develop scientific problem-solving abilities, learn how to establish themselves in their field, and begin developing their career. It is unfortunate, then, that the skills gained by physicists during their formal education are often mismatched with the skills actually required for a successful career in physics. We performed a survey of the U.S. particle physics community to determine the missing elements of graduate and undergraduate education and to gauge how to bridge these gaps. In this contributed paper, part of the 2021-22 Snowmass Community Planning Exercise, we report the results of this survey. We also recommend several specific community actions to improve the quality of particle physics education; the "community" here refers to physics departments, national labs, professional societies, funding agencies, and individual physicists.

Bitter, O.↗
DOE OSTI2020

The TRANSCEND University Consortium: An Overview - 20106

The UK government is committed to nuclear energy having an important role in delivering a secure, low-carbon and affordable energy future. Projections indicate that between now and 2035, ∼14 GW of new nuclear generating capacity may be built. Successful delivery of this strategy recognises the need for research and development, skills development and international collaboration as key enablers. One key area is the decommissioning and clean-up of all civil nuclear licensed sites and the implementation of geological disposal of highly active wastes, with a central component being a joined-up approach to nuclear R and D across government, industry and academia which benefits the UK economy and ensures the security of supply. Essential to public acceptance of this strategy remains a demonstrable ability to safely manage and dispose of waste, with acceptance directly linked to having scientifically robust routes for its safe clean-up and disposal. There therefore remains an ongoing need for further research in the areas of decommissioning, immobilisation and management of nuclear waste, and there is significant government and stakeholder support for such research. Given the needs of both new nuclear power generation and legacy wastes, there is a requirement to develop innovative approaches to waste management and decommissioning. Following on from earlier, highly successful projects supported by UK Research and Innovation's Energy Programme, the work of the TRANSCEND (Transformative Science and Engineering for Nuclear Decommissioning) consortium is part of the response to these needs, providing support to a strong and internationally leading group of researchers in this key technology area. The consortium is a collaboration between 11 universities, supported by 8 key industry partners, with a total funding of UK Pounds 9.5 M from the UK Engineering and Physical Research Council, the universities and key project partners. The research being carried out is multidisciplinary and covers both fundamental and applied topics, with 40 research projects clustered in four technical themes: integrated waste management; site decommissioning and remediation; spent fuels; and nuclear materials. Key aims of the consortium are to extend and further develop a relevant academic skill base in the UK associated with the needs of nuclear waste management and decommissioning, to train the next generation of UK researchers, equipping them with skills and experiences relevant to nuclear waste management and decommissioning issues, and to carry out cutting-edge research that has the potential to provide new and innovative pathways to better management of both legacy and future nuclear wastes. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Real-time ensemble microalgae growth forecasting with data assimilation

Accurate short-range (e.g., 7-day) microalgae growth forecasts will be beneficial for both production and harvesting of microalgae. This study developed an operational microalgae growth forecasting system with ensemble data assimilation (DA). The forecasting system was validated against observed Monoraphidium minutum 26B-AM growth in two outdoor pond cultures located in Mesa, Arizona, U.S. We first examined the relative roles of uncertainty in the meteorological forecast and initial conditions (i.e., algal concentration at the time of forecast) in the microalgae 7-day forecast and found initial conditions dominated the microalgae forecasting skill, suggesting the importance of implementing DA to improve initial condition characterization. To correct the systematic bias in biomass simulations, we developed a particle filter with bias estimation (PFBE) DA method to estimate biases and correct the model forecast. We found the DA forecasting system could improve the 7-day microalgae forecasting skill by about 85% on average compared to model forecasts without DA. These results suggest the potential accuracy of biomass growth forecasts may be sufficient to inform real-time operational decisions, such as harvesting planning, for commercial-scale microalgae production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

An ensemble data assimilation modeling system for operational outdoor microalgae growth forecasting

Microalgae have received increasing attention as a potential feedstock for biofuel or biobased products. Forecasting the microalgae growth is beneficial for managers in planning pond operations and harvesting decisions. This study proposed a biomass forecasting system comprised of the Huesemann Algae Biomass Growth Model (BGM), the Modular Aquatic Simulation System in Two Dimensions (MASS2), ensemble data assimilation (DA), and numerical weather prediction Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble meteorological forecasts. The novelty of this study is to seek the use of ensemble DA to improve both BGM and MASS2 model initial conditions with the assimilation of biomass and water temperature measurements and consequently improve short-term biomass forecasting skills. This study introduces the theory behind the proposed integrated biomass forecasting system, with an application undertaken in pseudo-real-time in three outdoor ponds cultured with Chlorella sorokiniana in Delhi, California, United States. Results from all three case studies demonstrate that the biomass forecasting system improved the short-term (i.e., 7-day) biomass forecasting skills by about 60% on average, comparing to forecasts without using the ensemble DA method. Given the satisfactory performances achieved in this study, it is probable that the integrated BGM-MASS2-DA forecasting system can be used operationally to inform managers in making pond operation and harvesting planning decisions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗