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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

Temperature-moisture biases in ECMWF analyses based on clear sky longwave simulations constrained by SSMI and MSU measurements and comparisons to ERBE estimates

Clear sky longwave radiation fluxes for the summer of 1988 and winter of 1989 have been simulated with a radiative transfer model that includes detailed treatment of atmospheric gas absorption. The input data to the model are humidity and temperature profiles from European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses and surface temperature measurements from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project. To reduce the inherent uncertainties in humidity profiles, the ECMWF moisture fields have been adjusted, based on the climatological relationship between the moisture profile and total precipitable water (PW), so that the ECMWF PW is equal to that derived from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) data. SSMI and ECMWF PW patterns are generally similar, but significant differences in magnitude are found in the low latitudes, particularly over the subtropical oceans in the Southern Hemisphere. At the same time the tropospheric brightness temperature (T(sub B)) at 53.74 GHz has been computed using a microwave transfer model with ECMWF temperature and humidity fields as inputs. The comparison of computed T(sub B) with the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) channel 2 T(sub B) revealed differences larger than 1.5 K over most of the oceans, suggesting that the ECMWF model atmosphere has a cold bias. Maximum biases greater than 3 K are found in low latitudes. After removing the bias from the ECMWF temperature field, a new set of temperature profiles yielding brightness temperature equal to MSU channel 2 T(sub B) has been obtained. Simulation results clearly demonstrate that inclusion of satellite estimates of PW and T(sub B) enhances the accuracy of the clear sky LW flux simulation, substantially reducing the differences from Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) estimates. Global averages indicate that the model-derived top-of-atmosphere (TOA) clear sky fluxes from the adjusted moisture and temperature profiles are in very good agreement with satellite-measured ERBE values, differing by only 1.4 W/sq m. By contrast, the calculation using only ECMWF analyses without any adjustments gives a significant underestimation of TOA clear sky fluxes up to 10.7 W/sq m compared to the satellite measurements, suggesting that the constraint method can significantly improve the accuracy in the radiation budget simulation. The results also indicate that the ECMWF-based simulation errors are, at least for the two seasons studied, mainly attributed to the error in the temperature field rather than to errors in the moisture field.

Sohn, Byung-Ju↗
NASA NTRS1993

On-Orbit Sky Background Measurements with the FOS

Observations of the sky background obtained with the Faint Object Spectrograph during 1991-1992 are discussed. Sky light can be an important contributor to the observed count rate in several of the instrument configurations especially when large apertures are used. In general, the sky background is consistent with the pre-launch expectations and showed the expected effects of zodiacal light and diffuse galactic light. In addition to these sources, there is, particularly during the daytime, a highly variable airglow component which includes a number of emission lines. The sky background will have an impact on the reduction and possibly the interpretation of some spectra.

Lyons, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS2004

RXTE All-Sky Slew Survey. Catalog of X-Ray Sources at B Greater Than 10 deg

We report results of a serendipitous hard X-ray (3-20 keV), nearly all-sky (absolute value of b greater than l0 deg.) survey based on RXTE/PCA observations performed during satellite reorientations in 1996-2002. The survey is 80% (90%) complete to a 4(sigma) limiting flux of approx. = 1.8 (2.5) x 10(exp -l1) erg/s sq cm in the 3-20 keV band. The achieved sensitivity in the 3-8 keV and 8-20 keV subbands is similar to and an order of magnitude higher than that of the previously record HEAO-1 A1 and HEAO-1 A4 all-sky surveys, respectively. A combined 7 x 10(exp 3) sq. deg area of the sky is sampled to flux levels below l0(exp -11) erg/ s sq cm (3-20 keV). In total 294 sources are detected and localized to better than 1 deg. 236 (80%) of these can be confidently associated with a known astrophysical object; another 22 likely result from the superposition of 2 or 3 closely located known sources. 35 detected sources remain unidentified, although for 12 of these we report a likely soft X-ray counterpart from the ROSAT all-sky survey bright source catalog. Of the reliably identified sources, 63 have local origin (Milky Way, LMC or SMC), 64 are clusters of galaxies and 100 are active galactic nuclei (AGN). The fact that the unidentified X-ray sources have hard spectra suggests that the majority of them are AGN, including highly obscured ones (N(sub H) greater than l0(exp 23)/sq cm). For the first time we present a log N-log S diagram for extragalactic sources above 4 x l0(exp -12) erg/ s sq cm at 8-20 keV. Key words. cosmo1ogy:observations - diffuse radiation - X-rays general

Revnivtsev, M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Clear-Sky Narrowband Albedo Variations Derived from VIRS and MODIS Data

A critical parameter for detecting clouds and aerosols and for retrieving their microphysical properties is the clear-sky radiance. The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Project uses the visible (VIS; 0.63 m) and near-infrared (NIR; 1.6 or 2.13 m) channels available on same satellites as the CERES scanners. Another channel often used for cloud and aerosol, and vegetation cover retrievals is the vegetation (VEG; 0.86- m) channel that has been available on the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) for many years. Generally, clear-sky albedo for a given surface type is determined for conditions when the vegetation is either thriving or dormant and free of snow. Snow albedo is typically estimated without considering the underlying surface type. The albedo for a surface blanketed by snow, however, should vary with surface type because the vegetation often emerges from the snow to varying degrees depending on the vertical dimensions of the vegetation. For example, a snowcovered prairie will probably be brighter than a snowcovered forest because the snow typically falls off the trees exposing the darker surfaces while the snow on a grassland at the same temperatures will likely be continuous and, therefore, more reflective. Accounting for the vegetation-induced differences should improve the capabilities for distinguishing snow and clouds over different surface types and facilitate improvements in the accuracy of radiative transfer calculations between the snow-covered surface and the atmosphere, eventually leading to improvements in models of the energy budgets over land. This paper presents a more complete analysis of the CERES spectral clear-sky reflectances to determine the variations in clear-sky top-of-atmosphere (TOA) albedos for both snow-free and snow-covered surfaces for four spectral channels using data from Terra and Aqua.. The results should be valuable for improved cloud retrievals and for modeling radiation fields.

Sun-Mack, Sunny↗
NASA NTRS2008

A New Technique for Retrieval of Tropospheric and Stratospheric Ozone Profiles using Sky Radiance Measurements at Multiple View Angles: Application to a Brewer Spectrometer

This paper describes and applies a new technique for retrieving diurnal variability in tropospheric ozone vertical distribution using ground-based measurements of ultraviolet sky radiances. The measured radiances are obtained by a polarization-insensitive modified Brewer double spectrometer located at Goddard Space Flight Center, in Greenbelt, Maryland, USA. Results demonstrate that the Brewer angular (0-72deg viewing zenith angle) and spectral (303-320 nm) measurements of sky radiance in the solar principal plane provide sufficient information to derive tropospheric ozone diurnal variability. In addition, the Brewer measurements provide stratospheric ozone vertical distributions at least twice per day near sunrise and sunset. Frequent measurements of total column ozone amounts from direct-sun observations are used as constraints in the retrieval. The vertical ozone profile resolution is shown in terms of averaging kernels to yield at least four points in the troposphere-low stratosphere, including good information in Umkehr layer 0 (0-5 km). The focus of this paper is on the derivation of stratospheric and tropospheric ozone profiles using both simulated and measured radiances. We briefly discuss the necessary modifications of the Brewer spectrometer that were used to eliminate instrumental polarization sensitivity so that accurate sky radiances can be obtained in the presence of strong Rayleigh scattering and aerosols. The results demonstrate that including a site-specific and time-dependent aerosol correction, based on Brewer direct-sun observations of aerosol optical thickness, is critical to minimize the sky radiance residuals as a function of observing angle in the optimal estimation inversion algorithm and improve the accuracy of the retrieved ozone profile.

Tzortziou, Maria↗
NASA NTRS2010

Clear-Sky Remote Sensing in the Vicinity of Clouds: What Can Be Learned About Aerosol Changes?

Studies on aerosol direct and indirect effects require a precise separation of cloud-free and cloudy air. However, separation between cloud-free and cloudy areas from remotely-sensed measurements is ambiguous. The transition zone in the regions around clouds often stretches out tens of km, which are neither precisely clear nor precisely cloudy. We study the transition zone between cloud-free and cloudy air using MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) measurements. Both instruments show enhanced clear-sky reflectance (MODIS) and clear-sky backscatterer (CALIPSO) near clouds. Analyzing a large dataset of MODIS observations we examine the effect of three-dimensional (3D) radiative interactions between clouds and cloud-free areas, also known as a cloud adjacency effect. Comparing with CALIPSO clear-sky backscatterer measurements, we show that the cloud adjacency effect may be responsible for a large portion of the enhanced clear sky reflectance observed by MODIS. While aerosol particles are responsible for a large part of the near-cloud enhancements in CALIPSO observations, misidentified or undetected cloud particles are also likely to contribute. As a result, both the nature of these particles (cloud vs. aerosol) and the processes creating them need to be clarified using a quantitative assessment of remote sensing limitations in particle detection and identification. "The width and ubiquity of the transition zone near clouds imply that studies of-aerosol-cloud -interactions and aerosol direct radiative effects need to account for aerosol changes near clouds. Not accounted, these changes can cause systematic biases toward smaller aerosol radiative forcing. On the other hand, including aerosol products near clouds despite their uncertainties may overestimate aerosol radiative forcing. Therefore, there is an urgent need for developing methods that can assess and account for remote sensing challenges and thus allow for including the transition zone into the study. We describe a simple model that estimates the cloud-induced enhanced reflectances of cloud-free areas in the vicinity of clouds. The model assumes that the enhancement is due entirely to Rayleigh scattering and is therefore bigger at shorter wavelengths, thus creating a so-called apparent "bluing" of aerosols in remote sensing retrievals.

Marshak, Alexander↗
NASA NTRS2010

Clear-Sky Remote Sensing in the Vicinity of Clouds: What We Learned from MODIS and CALIPSO

Studies on aerosol direct and indirect effects require a precise separation of cloud-free and cloudy air. However, separation between cloud-free and cloudy areas from remotely-sensed measurements is ambiguous. The transition zone in the regions around clouds often stretches out tens of km, which are neither precisely clear nor precisely cloudy. We study the transition zone between cloud-free and cloudy air using MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) measurements. Both instruments show enhanced clear-sky reflectance (MODIS) and clear-sky backscatterer (CALIPSO) near clouds, Analyzing a large dataset of MODIS observations we examine the effect of three-dimensional (3D) radiative interactions between clouds and cloud-free areas, also known as a cloud adjacency effect. Comparing with CALIPSO clear-sky backscatterer measurements, we show that the cloud adjacency effect may be responsible for a large portion of the enhanced clear sky reflectance observed by MODIS. While aerosol particles are responsible for a large part of the near-cloud enhancements in CALIPSO observations, misidentified or undetected cloud particles are also likely to contribute. As a result, both the nature of these particles (cloud vs. aerosol) and the processes creating them need to be clarified using a quantitative assessment of remote sensing limitations in particle detection and identification. The width and ubiquity of the transition zone near clouds imply that studies of aerosol-cloud interactions and aerosol direct radiative effects need to account for aerosol changes near clouds. Not accounted, these changes can cause systematic biases toward smaller aerosol radiative forcing. On the other hand, including aerosol products near clouds despite their uncertainties may overestimate aerosol radiative forcing. Therefore, there is an urgent need for developing methods that can assess and account for remote sensing challenges and thus allow for including the transition zone into the study. We describe a simple model that estimates the cloud-induced enhanced reflectances of cloud-free areas in the vicinity of clouds. The model assumes that the enhancement is due entirely to Rayleigh scattering and is therefore bigger at shorter wavelengths, thus creating a so-called apparent "bluing" of aerosols in remote sensing retrievals.

Marshak, Alexander↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Aquarius Simulator and Cold-Sky Calibration

A numerical simulator has been developed to study remote sensing from space in the spectral window at 1.413 GHz (L-band), and it has been used to optimize the cold-sky calibration (CSC) for the Aquarius radiometers. The celestial sky is a common cold reference in microwave radiometry. It is currently being used by the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity satellite, and it is planned that, after launch, the Aquarius/SAC-D observatory will periodically rotate to view "cold sky" as part of the calibration plan. Although radiation from the celestial sky is stable and relatively well known, it varies with location. In addition, radiation from the Earth below contributes to the measured signal through the antenna back lobes and also varies along the orbit. Both effects must be taken into account for a careful calibration. The numerical simulator has been used with the Aquarius configuration (antennas and orbit) to investigate these issues and determine optimum conditions for performing a CSC. This paper provides an overview of the simulator and the analysis leading to the selection of the optimum locations for a CSC.

Le Vine, David M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

All-Sky Observational Evidence for An Inverse Correlation Between Dust Temperature and Emissivity Spectral Index

We show that a one-component variable-emissivity-spectral-index model (the free- model) provides more physically motivated estimates of dust temperature at the Galactic polar caps than one- or two-component fixed-emissivity-spectral-index models (fixed- models) for interstellar dust thermal emission at far-infrared and millimeter wavelengths. For the comparison we have fit all-sky one-component dust models with fixed or variable emissivity spectral index to a new and improved version of the 210-channel dust spectra from the COBE-FIRAS, the 100-240 micrometer maps from the COBE-DIRBE and the 94 GHz dust map from the WMAP. The best model, the free-alpha model, is well constrained by data at 60-3000 GHz over 86 per cent of the total sky area. It predicts dust temperature (T(sub dust)) to be 13.7-22.7 (plus or minus 1.3) K, the emissivity spectral index (alpha) to be 1.2-3.1 (plus or minus 0.3) and the optical depth (tau) to range 0.6-46 x 10(exp -5) with a 23 per cent uncertainty. Using these estimates, we present all-sky evidence for an inverse correlation between the emissivity spectral index and dust temperature, which fits the relation alpha = 1/(delta + omega (raised dot) T(sub dust) with delta = -.0.510 plus or minus 0.011 and omega = 0.059 plus or minus 0.001. This best model will be useful to cosmic microwave background experiments for removing foreground dust contamination and it can serve as an all-sky extended-frequency reference for future higher resolution dust models.

Liang, Z.↗
NASA NTRS2013

A Supplementary Clear-Sky Snow and Ice Recognition Technique for CERES Level 2 Products

Identification of clear-sky snow and ice is an important step in the production of cryosphere radiation budget products, which are used in the derivation of long-term data series for climate research. In this paper, a new method of clear-sky snow/ice identification for Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is presented. The algorithm's goal is to enhance the identification of snow and ice within the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data after application of the standard CERES scene identification scheme. The input of the algorithm uses spectral radiances from five MODIS bands and surface skin temperature available in the CERES Single Scanner Footprint (SSF) product. The algorithm produces a cryosphere rating from an aggregated test: a higher rating corresponds to a more certain identification of the clear-sky snow/ice-covered scene. Empirical analysis of regions of interest representing distinctive targets such as snow, ice, ice and water clouds, open waters, and snow-free land selected from a number of MODIS images shows that the cryosphere rating of snow/ice targets falls into 95% confidence intervals lying above the same confidence intervals of all other targets. This enables recognition of clear-sky cryosphere by using a single threshold applied to the rating, which makes this technique different from traditional branching techniques based on multiple thresholds. Limited tests show that the established threshold clearly separates the cryosphere rating values computed for the cryosphere from those computed for noncryosphere scenes, whereas individual tests applied consequently cannot reliably identify the cryosphere for complex scenes.

Radkevich, Alexander↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Seven Years of Bright Meteor Data from the NASA All Sky Fireball Network

The NASA All Sky Fireball Network is a network consisting of 18 all-sky meteor cameras across the continental US. We present a data release of 33,660 bright meteors collected between 2013 and 2019. The released data consists of trajectory, orbit, radiant, shower association, and brightness. We discuss the camera hardware and software used to make the observations, the characteristics of the data, and known error sources. The camera hardware consists of Watec 902H2 Ultimate CCD cameras with a fish-eye lens giving an all-sky field of view. The data is complete until an absolute meteor magnitude of approximately -4, but meteors down to a magnitude of -1 are routinely observed. The cameras are spread across the continental United States in five subnetworks, with each network consisting of two to five cameras. The cameras report to a central server where the data is processed each morning. The network is modeled after the University of Western Ontario’s Southern Ontario Meteor Network. The cameras are running All-sky and Guided Real-time Detection (ASGARD) meteor detection software and analysis pipeline.

Aaron Kingery↗
NASA NTRS2022

SKYSURF: Constraints on Zodiacal Light and Extragalactic Background Light through Panchromatic HST All-sky Surface-brightness Measurements: II. First Limits on Diffuse Light at 1.25, 1.4, and 1.6 μm

We present the first results from the HST Archival Legacy project "SKYSURF." As described in Windhorst et al., SKYSURF utilizes the large HST archive to study the diffuse UV, optical, and near-IR backgrounds and foregrounds in detail. Here, we utilize SKYSURF's first sky-surface-brightness measurements to constrain the level of near-IR diffuse Extragalactic Background Light (EBL) in three near-IR filters (F125W, F140W, and F160W). This is done by comparing our preliminary sky measurements of >30,000 images to zodiacal light models, carefully selecting the darkest images to avoid contamination from stray light. Our sky-surface-brightness measurements have been verified to an accuracy of better than 1%, which when combined with systematic errors associated with HST, results in sky-brightness uncertainties of ∼ 2%–4% ≃ 0.005 MJy sr−1 in each image. When compared to the Kelsall et al. zodiacal model, an isotropic diffuse background of ∼30 nW m−2 sr−1 remains, whereas using the Wright zodiacal model results in no discernible diffuse background. Based primarily on uncertainties in the foreground model subtraction, we present limits on the amount of diffuse EBL of 29, 40, and 29 nW m−2 sr−1, for F125W, F140W, and F160W, respectively. While this light is generally isotropic, our modeling at this point does not distinguish between a cosmological origin or a solar system origin (such as a dim, diffuse, spherical cloud of cometary dust).

Timothy Carleton↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Status and Progress of All-Sky Hyperspectral IR Radiance Assimilation in GEOS

The majority of hyperspectral infrared radiance observations that peak in the lower and mid-troposphere have been excluded from the assimilation in the operational GEOS by the cloud detection scheme. The significance and challenges of assimilating these cloud-affected observations have attracted the attention of the research community, encouraged by the progress in utilizing all-sky microwave radiances affected by clouds and precipitation in many data assimilation systems, including GEOS. While the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) has made significant progress on the assimilation of cloud-cleared infrared radiances, this parallel study marks the first effort to directly assimilate cloud-affected hyperspectral infrared radiances in the GEOS. This initial study is focused on CrIS-FSR wa:wqter-vapor channels. The capability of the GEOS model and CRTM in simulating infrared radiances affected by clouds has been evaluated, and the all-sky brightness temperature Jacobians with respect to temperature, specific humidity, and hydrometeors are examined closely in varying cloud conditions. With hydrometeor control variables in the GEOS, several important aspects of all-sky IR radiance assimilation are investigated. The symmetric cloud effects are assessed for their robustness when used as the cloud proxy in observation error modeling that incorporates the inter-channel correlations with error situation dependency on the amount of cloud. The effective radius, bias correction and quality control processes will also be adapted to accommodate modifications necessary for all-sky infrared assimilation before comprehensive four-dimensional ensemble-variational(4dEnVar) experiments are conducted to assess their impacts on the analysis and forecast performance of GEOS.

Wei Gu↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

All-sky Microwave Radiance Assimilation in The GEOS Atmospheric Reanalysis for The Early 21st Century (GEOS-21C)

The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) is used for weather, climate, and air quality forecasts and producing reanalysis datasets. Its atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS) is a hybrid–4DEnVar system. Various satellite radiance, atmospheric motion vector (winds), aircraft, and convectional data are assimilated by this system to produce global atmospheric states. Satellite data assimilation within GEOS ADAS is enhanced by considering correlated observational errors among infrared radiance observations and assimilating new microwave radiance data in all-sky conditions since the release of the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). These new microwave radiance data include brightness temperature measurements made by the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) microwave imager (GMI) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 / Global Change Observation Mission 1st – Water (AMSR2/GCOM-W). Historical microwave radiance data made by various Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) aboard the Aqua satellite are tested within the all-sky microwave radiance assimilation framework in the preparation of the GEOS enhanced Atmospheric Reanalysis for the early 21st century (GEOS-21C). Assimilation of these data in all-sky conditions enhances use of other satellite data and improves GEOS analysis and forecast. In this talk, we will present the procedures of to assimilate microwave radiance data in all-sky conditions and their impact on atmospheric analysis in the preparation of GEOS-21C.

Jianjun Jin↗
DOE OSTI2026

SPT-3G D1: Maps of the millimeter-wave sky from 2019 and 2020 observations of the SPT-3G Main field

Maps of the sky in millimeter wavelengths contain rich information on cosmology through anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). Creating multifrequency sky maps of anisotropies in the $I$, $Q$, and $U$ Stokes parameters is one of the first steps of CMB cosmology analyses. In this work, we describe the production and validation of a set of sky maps from the South Pole Telescope's third-generation camera, SPT-3G. The maps are from data taken in frequency bands centered at 95, 150, and 220 GHz and taken during the first two years, 2019 and 2020, of the SPT-3G Main survey, which covers $4\%$ of the sky. We applied high-pass filters to time series of individual detectors and binned the filtered time series samples into map pixels. After that, we calibrated and cleaned the maps to reduce known systematic errors. In addition, we searched for other systematic errors through null tests and mitigated a significant systematic error detected therein. The white noise levels of the full-depth maps of the $I$ Stokes parameter are $5.4$, $4.4$, and $16.2$$\mathrm{μK}$-$\mathrm{arcmin}$ in the 95, 150, and 220 GHz bands, respectively, and $8.4$, $6.6$, and $25.8$$\mathrm{μK}$-$\mathrm{arcmin}$ for $Q/U$. These maps are the deepest to date used for measurements of mid-to-high-$\ell$ primary temperature and $E$-mode polarization CMB anisotropies, and reconstructions of the CMB gravitational lensing potential. We make these maps and supporting data products publicly accessible.

Quan, W. [Argonne (main); Chicago U., EFI; Chicago↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications (FARMS) 2023 [SWR-16-18]

The Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications (FARMS) is used to compute cloudy irradiance. Radiative transfer (RT) models simulating broadband solar radiation have been widely used by atmospheric scientists to model solar resources for various energy applications such as operational forecasting. Due to the complexity of solving the RT equation, the computation under cloudy conditions can be extremely time consuming though many approximations (e.g. two-stream approach and delta-M truncation scheme) have been utilized. Thus, a more efficient RT model is crucial for model developers as a new option for approximating solar radiation at the land surface with minimal loss of accuracy. We have developed a fast all-sky radiation model for solar applications (FARMS) using the simplified clear-sky RT model, REST2, and simulated cloud transmittances and reflectances from the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model (RRTM) with a sixteen-stream Discrete Ordinates Radiative Transfer (DISORT). Simulated lookup tables (LUTs) of cloud transmittances and reflectances were created by varying cloud optical thicknesses, cloud particle sizes, and solar zenith angles. Equations with optimized parameters were fitted to the cloud transmittances and reflectances to develop the model. Using this model the all-sky solar irradiance at the land surface can be computed rapidly by combining REST2 with the cloud transmittances and reflectances. This new RT model is more than 1000 times faster than those currently utilized in solar resource assessment and forecasting since it does not explicitly solve the RT equation for each individual cloud condition. Our results indicate the accuracy of the fast radiative transfer model is comparable to or better than two-stream approximation in term of computing cloud transmittance and solar radiation.

Xie, Yu↗
DOE OSTI2022

Convolutional neural networks for intra-hour solar forecasting based on sky image sequences

Accurate and timely solar forecasts play an increasingly critical role in power systems. Compared to longer forecasting timescales, very short-term solar forecasting has lagged behind in both research and practice. In this paper, we propose deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to provide operational intra-hour (10-minute-ahead to 60-minute-ahead) solar forecasts. We develop two CNN structures inspired by a widely-used CNN architecture. The CNNs are tailored to our solar forecasting regression tasks and rely solely on sky image sequences. Case studies based on six years of data (over 150,000 data points) demonstrate that the best CNN model has forecast skill scores of 20%-39% over the naive persistence of cloudiness benchmark, even at these very short timescales. The CNNs also have consistently superior performance when compared to shallow machine learning models with meteorological predictors, where the improvement averages around 7%. The sensitivity analyses show that the sky image length, resolution, and weather conditions have impacts on the deep learning model accuracy. In our intra-hour problem with specific setups, two sky images with a 10-minute 128 x 128 resolution yield the most accurate forecasts. Current limitations, future work, and deployment challenges and solutions are also discussed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Benchmarking of Solar Irradiance Nowcast Performance Derived from All-Sky Imagers

Fluctuations of the incoming solar irradiance impact the power generation from photovoltaic and concentrating solar thermal power plants. Accurate solar nowcasting becomes necessary to detect these sudden changes of generated power and to provide the desired information for optimal exploitation of solar systems. In the framework of the International Energy Agency's Photovoltaic Power Systems Program Task 16, a benchmarking exercise has been conducted relying on a bouquet of solar nowcasting methodologies by all-sky imagers (ASI). In this paper, four ASI systems nowcast the Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) with a time forecast ranging from 1 to 20 min during 28 days with variable cloud conditions spanning from September to November 2019 in southern Spain. All ASIs demonstrated their ability to accurately nowcast GHI, with RMSE ranging from 6.9% to 18.1%. Under cloudy conditions, all ASIs' nowcasts outperform the persistence models. Under clear skies, three ASIs are better than persistence. Discrepancies in the observed nowcasting performance become larger at increasing forecast horizons. The findings of this study highlight the feasibility of ASIs to reliably nowcast GHI at different sky conditions, time intervals and horizons. Such nowcasts can be used either to estimate solar power at distant times or detect sudden GHI fluctuations.

all-sky imagers↗