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NASA NTRS2001

Solar Cycle Variations and Equatorial Oscillations: Modeling Study

Solar cycle activity effects (SCAE) in the lower and middle atmosphere, reported in several studies, are difficult to explain on the basis of the small changes in solar radiation that accompany the 11-year cycle, It is therefore natural to speculate that dynamical processes may come into play to produce a leverage. Such a leverage may be provided by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the zonal circulation of the stratosphere, which has been linked to solar activity variations. Driven primarily by wave mean flow interaction, the QBO period and its amplitude are variable but are also strongly influenced by the seasonal cycle in the solar radiation. This influence extends to low altitudes referred to as "downward control". Relatively small changes in solar radiative forcing can produce small changes in the period and phase of the QBO, but this in turn can produce measurable differences in the wind field. Thus, the QBO may be an amplifier of solar activity variations and a natural conduit of these variations to lower altitudes. To test this hypothesis, we conducted experiments with a 2D (two-dimensional) version of our Numerical Spectral Model that incorporates Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization for small-scale gravity waves (GW). Solar cycle radiance variations (SCRV) are accounted for by changing the radiative heating rate on a logarithmic scale from 0.1 % at the surface to 1 % at 50 km to 10% at 100 km. With and without SCRV, but with the same GW flux, we then conduct numerical experiments to evaluate the magnitude of the SCAE in the zonal circulation. The numerical results indicate that, under certain conditions, the SCAE is significant and can extend to lower altitudes where the SCRV is inconsequential. At 20-km the differences in the modeled wind velocities are as large as 5 m/s. For a modeled QBO period of 30 months, we find that the seasonal cycle in the solar forcing (through the Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO)) acts as a strong pacemaker to lockup the phase and period of the QBO. The SCAE then shows up primarily as a distinct but relatively weak amplitude modulation. But with the QBO period between 30 and 34 (or less than 30, presumably) months, the seasonal phase lock is weak. Solar flux radiance variations in the seasonal cycle then cause variations in the QBO period and phase that amplify the SCAE to produce relatively large variations in the wind field. These variations also extend to mid latitudes.

Mayr, H. G.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Solar-Cycle Changes in GONG P-Mode Widths and Amplitudes 1995-1998

We search for a solar cycle variation in mode widths and amplitudes derived from 3-month GONG time series. The variation of mode width and amplitude observed in GONG data are the combined effects of fill factor, temporal variation, and measurement uncertainties. The largest variation is caused by the fill factor resulting in modes with increased width and reduced amplitude when fill is lower. We assume that the solar cycle variation is the only other systematic variation beside the temporal window function effect. We correct all currently available data sets for the fill factor and simultaneously derive the solar cycle variation. We find an increase of about 3% on average in mode width from the previous minimum to Oct. 1998 and a decrease of about 7% and 6% in mode amplitude and mode area (width x amplitude). We find no l dependence of the solar-cycle changes. As a function of frequency, these changes show a maximum between 2.7 and 3.3 mHz with about 47% higher than average values for mode width and about 29% and 36% higher ones for mode amplitude and area. We estimate the significance of these rather small changes by a pre-whitening method and find that the results are significant at or above the 99.9% level with mode area showing the highest level of significance and mode width the lowest. The variation in background amplitude is most likely not significant and is consistent with a zero change.

Komm R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Solar irradiance variability during solar cycles 21 and 22

Total solar irradiance observations by the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) on the Solar Maximum Mission, the Nimbus 7/Earth Radiation Budget (ERB), the NASA/Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS), and NOAA 9/Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) are combined to demonstrate the characteristics of the variation of solar luminosity over the solar cycles 21 and 22 between 1978 and 1990. Observations of solar Lyman Alpha and 10.7 MHz fluxes are used to demonstrate a total irradiance variability asymmetry relative to the maximum of solar activity.

Willson, Richard C.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Composite Mg II solar activity index for solar cycles 21 and 22

On the basis of version 1.0 of the composite MG II solar activity index data set, it is shown that the change in the 27-day running average of the Mg II index from solar maximum to solar minimum is about 8 percent for solar cycle 21 and about 9 percent for solar cycle 22 through January 1992. Scaling factors based on the short-term variations in the Mg II index and solar irradiance data sets are developed for each instrument to estimate solar variability at mid-UV and near-UV wavelengths. A set of composite scale factors are derived for use with the present composite MG index. Near 205 cm, where solar irradiance variations are important for stratospheric chemistry, the estimated change in irradiance during solar cycle 22 is about 10 +/- 1 percent using the composite Mg II index (version 1.0) and scale factors.

Deland, Matthew T.↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Survey and Synthesis of Solar Cycle Prediction Techniques

A number of techniques for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle time scale are identified, described, and tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g. regression and curve-fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a complete description of future activity, while others, e.g. geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides the most accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This Combined Precursor Method gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154+/-21 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. A mathematical function dependent upon the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude then describes the level of solar activity for the next complete cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast gives, as of January 1999, a smoothed sunspot maximum of 146+/-20 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. The success of the geomagnetic precursors in predicting future solar activity suggests that solar magnetic phenomena at latitudes above the sunspot activity belts are linked to solar activity which occurs many years later in the lower latitudes.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Statistical analysis of total ozone and stratospheric Umkehr data for trends and solar cycle relationship

Dobson total ozone data from 1970-1984 and stratospheric Umkehr profile ozone data from 1970-1981 are analyzed. The relationship between ozone and long-term solar cycle activity is examined using 10.7 cm solar flux data. From the Dobson data it is estimated that the overall global trend in total ozone is -0.26 + or -0.92 percent per decade, which indicates no significant overall trend; and for the total ozone-solar flux relationship there is a 1.18 + or - 0.66 percent change in total ozone from solar cycle minimum to maximum that reveals a positive relationship. Analysis of the Umkehr data reveals a negative trend of -0.30 + or - 0.17 percent per year in the layers 7 snd 8. The relationship between Umkehr data and solar flux in layers 6 and 7 is 2.57 + or - 1.25 percent and 3.40 + or - 2.16 percent change from solar cycle minimum to maximum; however, no significant relationship is detected in the higher layers 8 and 9. These estimates are compared with theoretical model calculations. It is noted that the estimated effects of solar cycle activity on total ozone and stratospheric ozone agree with calculations of photochemical models.

Reinsel, Gregory C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The solar cycle variation of ozone in the stratosphere inferred from Nimbus 7 and NOAA 11 satellites

The combined Nimbus 7 solar backscattered ultraviolet (SBUV) and NOAA 11 SBUV/2 ozone data, covering a period of more than a solar cycle (about 15 years), are used to study the UV response of ozone in the stratosphere. The study shows that about 2% change in total column ozone and about 5-7% change in ozone mixing ratio in the upper stratosphere (0.7 to 2 hPa) may be attributed to the change in the solar UV flux over a solar cycle. In the upper stratosphere, where photochemical processes are expected to play a major role, the measured solar cycle variation of ozone is significantly larger than inferred either from the photochemical models or from the ozone response to the 27-day solar UV modulation. For example, the observed solar cycle related change in ozone mixing ratio at 2 hPa is about 1% for 1% change in the solar UV flux near 200 nm. The inferred change in ozone from either the photochemical models or from the 27-day ozone-UV response is about a factor of 2-3 lower than this value.

Chandra, S.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Using a Magnetic Flux Transport Model to Predict the Solar Cycle

We present the results of an investigation into the use of a magnetic flux transport model to predict the amplitude of future solar cycles. Recently Dikpati, de Toma, & Gilman (2006) showed how their dynamo model could be used to accurately predict the amplitudes of the last eight solar cycles and offered a prediction for the next solar cycle - a large amplitude cycle. Cameron & Schussler (2007) found that they could reproduce this predictive skill with a simple 1-dimensional surface flux transport model - provided they used the same parameters and data as Dikpati, de Toma, & Gilman. However, when they tried incorporating the data in what they argued was a more realistic manner, they found that the predictive skill dropped dramatically. We have written our own code for examining this problem and have incorporated updated and corrected data for the source terms - the emergence of magnetic flux in active regions. We present both the model itself and our results from it - in particular our tests of its effectiveness at predicting solar cycles.

Lyatskaya, S.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Solar cycle variation of interplanetary disturbances observed as Doppler scintillation transients

Interplanetary disturbances characterized by plasma that is more turbulence and/or moves faster than the background solar wind are readily defected as transients in Doppler scintillation measurements of the near-Sun solar wind. Systematic analysis of over 23,000 hours of Pioneer Venus Orbiter Doppler measurements obtained inside 0.5 AU during 1979-1987 have made it possible for the first time to investigate the frequency of occurrence of Doppler scintillation transients under solar minimum conditions and to determine its dependence on solar cycle. On the basis of a total of 142 transients, Doppler scintillation transient rates vary from a high of 0.22 in 1979 (one every 4.6 days) to a low of 0.077 transients/d in 1986 (one every 13 days), a decrease by almost a factor of 3 from solar maximum to solar minimum. This solar cycle variation, the strongest yet of any solar wind Doppler scintillation property, is highly correlated with both solar activity characterized by sunspot number and the coronal mass ejection rates deduced from Solswind and Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) coronagraph observations. These results indicate that coronal mass ejections and Doppler scintillation transients are closely related not just during solar maximum, as occasional individual comparisons have shown in the past, but throughout the entire solar cycle, and strengthen the notation that the Doppler scintillation and optical transients are different manifestations of the same physical phenomenon. The magnitudes of the transients, as described by the ratio of peak to pretransient scintillation levels (EF for enhancement factor), and their distribution iwth heliocentric distance also vary with solar cycle. While EF tends to diminish with increasing heliocentric distance during high solar activity, it is more evenly distributed during low solar activity. EF is also lower during solar minimum, as 13% of the transients during solar maximum have values exceeding 23, the highest EF observed during solar minimum. These results are consistent with the fact that occasional major fast-moving interplanetary shocks that are observed during solar maximum are very rate during solar minimum.

Woo, Richard↗
NASA NTRS1994

The solar cycle variation of coronal mass ejections and the solar wind mass flux

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are an important aspect of coronal physics and a potentially significant contributor to perturbations of the solar wind, such as its mass flux. Sufficient data on CMEs are now available to permit study of their longer-term occurrency patterns. Here we present the results of a study of CME occurrence rates over more than a complete 11-year solar sunspot cycle and a comparison of these rates with those of other activity related to CMEs and with the solar wind particle flux at 1 AU. The study includes an evaluation of correlations to the CME rates, which include instrument duty cycles, visibility functions, mass detection thresholds, and geometrical considerations. The main results are as follows: (1) The frequency of occurrence of CMEs tends to track the solar activity cycle in both amplitude and phase; (2) the CME rates from different instruments, when corrected for both duty cycles and visibility functions, are reasonably consistent; (3) considering only longer-term averages, no one class of solar activity is better correlated with CME rate than any other; (4) the ratio of the annualized CME to solar wind mass flux tends to track the solar cycle; and (5) near solar maximum, CMEs can provide a significant fraction (i.e., approximately equals 15%) of the average mass flux to the near-ecliptic solar wind.

Webb, David F.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Energetic particle recurrence and escape during solar cycle 20

Low-energy solar particle data have been combined from a multi-spacecraft near-earth data set covering most of solar cycle 20 (1966-1976). Particle intensity profiles have been ordered in the natural heliographic coordinate system of the estimated high coronal connection longitude of the foot point of the interplanetary field line. The recurrence trends of approximately 1-MeV solar particles become more apparent in this coordinate system than when plotted versus time, and thereby extend the evidence for regions of continual injection and escape from the corona. Intercomparison of solar particles and solar wind streams in heliographic longitude suggests that the origin of stream-associated spatial particle events seen at 1 AU is solar rather than interplanetary.

Gold, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Sunspot variation and selected associated phenomena: A look at solar cycle 21 and beyond

Solar sunspot cycles 8 through 21 are reviewed. Mean time intervals are calculated for maximum to maximum, minimum to minimum, minimum to maximum, and maximum to minimum phases for cycles 8 through 20 and 8 through 21. Simple cosine functions with a period of 132 years are compared to, and found to be representative of, the variation of smoothed sunspot numbers at solar maximum and minimum. A comparison of cycles 20 and 21 is given, leading to a projection for activity levels during the Spacelab 2 era (tentatively, November 1984). A prediction is made for cycle 22. Major flares are observed to peak several months subsequent to the solar maximum during cycle 21 and to be at minimum level several months after the solar minimum. Additional remarks are given for flares, gradual rise and fall radio events and 2800 MHz radio emission. Certain solar activity parameters, especially as they relate to the near term Spacelab 2 time frame are estimated.

Wilson, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Solar UV Temporal Variations During Solar Cycle 22 and the Twentieth Century

Solar ultraviolet measurements of the Mg II core-to-wing ratio from the NOAA9 satellite show a fast rise for solar cycle 22 from the minimum in September 1986. The high values in late 1989 are comparable to the maximum values for cycle 21. Estimates of earlier solar UV variations are made back to 1947 using a combination of the 10 cm solar radio flux (F10) and the sunspot blocking function. The latter is interpreted to partially remove the gyroresonance component from F10, which is not present in the UV flux.

Donnelly, Richard F.↗