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DOE OSTI2022

A global comparison of building decarbonization scenarios by 2050 towards 1.5–2 °C targets

Buildings play a key role in the transition to a low-carbon-energy system and in achieving Paris Agreement climate targets. Analyzing potential scenarios for building decarbonization in different socioeconomic contexts is a crucial step to develop national and transnational roadmaps to achieve global emission reduction targets. This study integrates building stock energy models for 32 countries across four continents to create carbon emission mitigation reference scenarios and decarbonization scenarios by 2050, covering 60% of today’s global building emissions. These decarbonization pathways are compared to those from global models. Results demonstrate that reference scenarios are in all countries insufficient to achieve substantial decarbonization and lead, in some regions, to significant increases, i.e., China and South America. Decarbonization scenarios lead to substantial carbon reductions within the range projected in the 2 °C scenario but are still insufficient to achieve the decarbonization goals under the 1.5 °C scenario.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of drought on global food security by 2050

Drought is a major driver of crop production loss, threatening global food security as the population rises toward 9 billion by 2050. Using a process-based crop model within an Earth system model, we assess drought-related impacts on maize, soybean, rice, and wheat production at global and country levels. We then develop a food insecurity index combining drought impacts with socio-economic factors. Our results indicate that by 2050, globally averaged drought losses for combined maize, soybean, rice, and wheat production are <2%, though soybean losses reach 3.6%. Despite these small average changes at the global scale, 62 countries experience maximum production losses over 10%, and 24 countries over 20%. Our index identifies regions at greatest risk, including large parts of South America, Africa, Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia. These results illustrate the need for drought adaptation to mitigate future drought impacts on crop production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Coupled abiotic-biotic cycling of nitrous oxide in tropical peatlands

Atmospheric nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is a potent greenhouse gas thought to be mainly derived from microbial metabolism as part of the denitrification pathway. Here we report that in unexplored peat soils of Central and South America, N 2 O production can be driven by abiotic reactions (≤98%) highly competitive to their enzymatic counterparts. Extracted soil iron positively correlated with in situ abiotic N 2 O production determined by isotopic tracers. Moreover, we found that microbial N 2 O reduction accompanied abiotic production, essentially closing a coupled abiotic-biotic N 2 O cycle. Anaerobic N 2 O consumption occurred ubiquitously (pH 6.4–3.7), with proportions of diverse clade II N 2 O reducers increasing with consumption rates. Our findings show that denitrification in tropical peat soils is not a purely biological process but rather a ‘mosaic’ of abiotic and biotic reduction reactions. Here, we predict that hydrological and temperature fluctuations differentially affect abiotic and biotic drivers and further contribute to the high N 2 O flux variation in the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bulk cloud microphysical properties as seen from numerical simulation and remote sensing products: case study of a hailstorm event over the La Plata Basin

Hailstorms develop over the La Plata Basin, in south-eastern South America, more often during later winter and early austral spring, between September and October. These systems have significant socioeconomic impacts over the region. Thus, a better understanding of how atmospheric drivers modulate the formation of hailstorms is important to improve the forecast of such phenomena. In this study, we selected a hailstorm event observed over the eastern La Plata Basin during 14–15 July 2016 to evaluate the performance of the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (BRAMS) model. The ability of the model in simulating cloud microphysical properties was evaluated by comparing simulations driven by different global forcings against in situ and remote sensing observations. The model results showed good skill in capturing the basic characteristics of the thunderstorm, particularly in terms of the spatial distribution of hydrometeors. The simulated spatial distribution of hail covers locations where hail fall was reported. The BRAMS simulations suggest that, despite relatively low values of the convective available potential energy (CAPE) (700–1000 J kg -1 ), environments with strong 0–8-km bulk shear (60–70 kt, ~30.9–36.0 m s –1 ) can promote the formation of ice clouds and hail fall over the eastern La Plata Basin. To be more conclusive, however, further research is needed to understand how different combinations of CAPE and shear affect hail formation over the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Regional tropical rainfall shifts under global warming: an energetic perspective

Abstract Future climate simulations feature pronounced spatial shifts in the structure of tropical rainfall. We apply a novel atmospheric energy flux analysis to diagnose late 21st century tropical rainfall shifts in a large ensemble of simulations of 21st century climate. The method reconstructs 2D spatial changes in rainfall based on horizontal shifts in the lines of zero meridional and zonal divergent energy flux, called the energy flux equator (EFE) and energy flux prime meridian (EFPM), respectively. Two main sources of future atmospheric energy flux changes, and hence rainfall shifts, are identified by the analysis: the high-latitude North Atlantic due to a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation that shifts tropical rainfall southwards over the greater Tropical Atlantic sector and eastern Pacific; and the eastern tropical Pacific due to a permanent El-Niño-like response that produces zonal shifts over the Maritime Continent and South America. To first order, the shifts in the EFE and EFPM mirror gross distributional changes in tropical precipitation, with a southward shift in rainfall over the tropical Atlantic, West Africa, and eastern tropical Pacific and an eastward shift over the Maritime Continent and western Pacific. When used to reconstruct future rainfall shifts in the tropical Atlantic and Sahel, the method reasonably represents the simulated meridional structure of rainfall shifts but does not do so for the zonal structures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Whole-genome sequencing distinguishes the two most common giant kelp ecomorphs

Abstract Giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera, exists as distinct morphological variants—or “ecomorphs”—in different populations, yet the mechanism for this variation is uncertain, and environmental drivers for either adaptive or plastic phenotypes have not been identified. The ecomorphs Macrocystis “pyrifera” and M. “integrifolia” are distributed throughout temperate waters of North and South America with almost no geographic overlap and exhibit an incongruous, non-mirrored, distribution across the equator. This study evaluates the degree of genetic divergence between M. “pyrifera” and M. “integrifolia” across 18 populations in Chile and California using whole-genome sequencing and single-nucleotide polymorphism markers. Our results based on a principal component analysis, admixture clustering by genetic similarity, and phylogenetic inference demonstrate that M. “pyrifera” and M. “integrifolia” are genetically distinguishable. Analyses reveal separation by Northern and Southern Hemispheres and between morphs within hemispheres, suggesting that the convergent “integrifolia” morphology arose separately in each hemisphere. This is the first study to use whole-genome sequencing to understand genetic divergence in giant kelp ecomorphs, identifying 83 potential genes under selection and providing novel insights about Macrocystis evolution that were not evident with previous genetic techniques. Future studies are needed to uncover the environmental forces driving local adaptation and presumed convergent evolution of these morphs.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2021

Whole-Genome Comparisons of Ergot Fungi Reveals the Divergence and Evolution of Species within the Genus Claviceps Are the Result of Varying Mechanisms Driving Genome Evolution and Host Range Expansion

The genus Claviceps has been known for centuries as an economically important fungal genus for pharmacology and agricultural research. Only recently have researchers begun to unravel the evolutionary history of the genus, with origins in South America and classification of four distinct sections through ecological, morphological, and metabolic features (Claviceps sects. Citrinae, Paspalorum, Pusillae, and Claviceps). The first three sections are additionally characterized by narrow host range, whereas section Claviceps is considered evolutionarily more successful and adaptable as it has the largest host range and biogeographical distribution. However, the reasons for this success and adaptability remain unclear. Our study elucidates factors influencing adaptability by sequencing and annotating 50 Claviceps genomes, representing 21 species, for a comprehensive comparison of genome architecture and plasticity in relation to host range potential. Our results show the trajectory from specialized genomes (sects. Citrinae and Paspalorum) toward adaptive genomes (sects. Pusillae and Claviceps) through colocalization of transposable elements around predicted effectors and a putative loss of repeat-induced point mutation resulting in unconstrained tandem gene duplication coinciding with increased host range potential and speciation. Alterations of genomic architecture and plasticity can substantially influence and shape the evolutionary trajectory of fungal pathogens and their adaptability. Furthermore, our study provides a large increase in available genomic resources to propel future studies of Claviceps in pharmacology and agricultural research, as well as, research into deeper understanding of the evolution of adaptable plant pathogens.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Chromosome-Scale Genome Assembly of a Helicoverpa zea Strain Resistant to Bacillus thuringiensis Cry1Ac Insecticidal Protein

Helicoverpa zea (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is an insect pest of major cultivated crops in North and South America. The species has adapted to different host plants and developed resistance to several insecticidal agents, including Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) insecticidal proteins in transgenic cotton and maize. Helicoverpa zea populations persist year-round in tropical and subtropical regions, but seasonal migrations into temperate zones increase the geographic range of associated crop damage. To better understand the genetic basis of these physiological and ecological characteristics, we generated a high-quality chromosome-level assembly for a single H. zea male from Bt-resistant strain, HzStark_Cry1AcR. Hi-C data were used to scaffold an initial 375.2 Mb contig assembly into 30 autosomes and the Z sex chromosome (scaffold N50 = 12.8 Mb and L50 = 14). The scaffolded assembly was error-corrected with a novel pipeline, polishCLR. The mitochondrial genome was assembled through an improved pipeline and annotated. Assessment of this genome assembly indicated 98.8% of the Lepidopteran Benchmark Universal Single-Copy Ortholog set were complete (98.5% as complete single copy). Repetitive elements comprised approximately 29.5% of the assembly with the plurality (11.2%) classified as retroelements. This chromosome-scale reference assembly for H. zea, ilHelZeax1.1, will facilitate future research to evaluate and enhance sustainable crop production practices.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Invasion and rapid adaptation of guppies ( Poecilia reticulata ) across the Hawaiian Archipelago

How much does natural selection, as opposed to genetic drift, admixture, and gene flow, contribute to the evolution of invasive species following introduction to a new environment? Here we assess how evolution can shape biological invasions by examining population genomic variation in non-native guppies (Poecilia reticulata) introduced to the Hawaiian Islands approximately a century ago. By examining 18 invasive populations from four Hawaiian islands and four populations from the native range in northern South America, we reconstructed the history of introductions and evaluated population structure as well as the extent of ongoing gene flow across watersheds and among islands. Patterns of differentiation indicate that guppies have developed significant population structure, with little natural or human-mediated gene flow having occurred among populations following introduction. Demographic modeling and admixture graph analyses together suggest that guppies were initially introduced to O‘ahu and Maui and then translocated to Hawai‘i and Kaua‘i. We detected evidence for only one introduction event from the native range, implying that any adaptive evolution in introduced populations likely utilized the genetic variation present in the founding population. Environmental association tests accounting for population structure identified loci exhibiting signatures of adaptive variation related to predators and landscape characteristics but not nutrient regimes. When paired with high estimates of effective population sizes and detectable population structure, the presence of environment-associated loci supports the role of natural selection in shaping contemporary evolution of Hawaiian guppy populations. Our findings indicate that local adaptation may engender invasion success, particularly in species with life histories that facilitate rapid evolution. Finally, evidence of low gene flow between populations suggests that removal could be an effective approach to control invasive guppies across the Hawaiian archipelago.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spatial biases of information influence global estimates of soil respiration: how can we improve global predictions?

Soil respiration (Rs), the efflux of CO2 from soils to the atmosphere, is a major component of the terrestrial carbon cycle, but is poorly constrained from regional to global scales. The global soil respiration database (SRDB) is a compilation of in-situ Rs observations from around the globe that has been consistently updated with new measurements over the past decade. It is unclear whether the addition of data to new versions of the SRDB has produced better-constrained global Rs estimates. We compared two versions of the SRDB (v3.0 n=5173 and v5.0 n=10366) to determine how additional data influenced the global sum and uncertainty of Rs as predicted by a quantile regression forest model. A model parameterized using SRDBv3 yielded a global Rs sum of 88.6 Pg C yr-1, and associated uncertainty of 29.9 (mean absolute error) and 57.9 (standard deviation) Pg C yr-1, whereas parameterization using SRDBv5 yielded 96.5 Pg C yr-1 and associated uncertainty of 30.2 (mean average error) and 73.4 (standard deviation) Pg C yr-1. Empirically estimated global heterotrophic respiration (Rh) from v3 and v5 were 49.9-50.2 (mean 50.1) and 53.3-53.5 (mean 53.4) Pg C yr-1, respectively. Interestingly, SRDBv5’s inclusion of new data from underrepresented regions (e.g., Asia, Africa, South America) thus resulted in overall higher model uncertainty. The SRDBv5 is still biased towards northern latitudes and temperate zones, so we tested that an optimized global distribution of Rs measurements resulted in a global sum of 96.4 ± 21.4 Pg C yr-1 and lower model uncertainty. These results support current global estimates of Rs but highlight spatial inconsistencies that influence model parameterization and interpretation that should be addressed to improve regional- to global-scale predictions.

Stell, Emma↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reduced Erosion Augments Soil Carbon Storage Under Cover Crops

ABSTRACT Cover crops, a promising strategy to increase soil organic carbon (SOC) storage in croplands and mitigate climate change, have typically been shown to benefit soil carbon (C) storage from increased plant C inputs. However, input‐driven C benefits may be augmented by the reduction of C outputs induced by cover crops, a process that has been tested by individual studies but has not yet been synthesized. Here we quantified the impact of cover crops on organic C loss via soil erosion (SOC erosion) and revealed the geographical variability at the global scale. We analyzed the field data from 152 paired control and cover crop treatments from 57 published studies worldwide using meta‐analysis and machine learning. The meta‐analysis results showed that cover crops widely reduced SOC erosion by an average of 68% on an annual basis, while they increased SOC stock by 14% (0–15 cm). The absolute SOC erosion reduction ranged from 0 to 18.0 Mg C −1 ha −1 year −1 and showed no correlation with the SOC stock change that varied from −8.07 to 22.6 Mg C −1 ha −1 year −1 at 0–15 cm depth, indicating the latter more likely related to plant C inputs. The magnitude of SOC erosion reduction was dominantly determined by topographic slope. The global map generated by machine learning showed the relative effectiveness of SOC erosion reduction mainly occurred in temperate regions, including central Europe, central‐east China, and Southern South America. Our results highlight that cover crop‐induced erosion reduction can augment SOC stock to provide additive C benefits, especially in sloping and temperate croplands, for mitigating climate change.

Huang, Wenjuan [Department of Ecology, Evolution, ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Amazon drought resilience – emerging results point to new empirical needs

Will climate change turn tropical forests from a carbon sink to a source (Pan et al., 2011)? Tropical forests cycle more carbon, water, and energy than any other biome (Bonan, 2008). The Amazon is the largest tropical forest, spanning one-third of South America, and any perturbation in its function has repercussions on the global climate. Mild and severe droughts in the Amazon are predicted to double and triple in area, respectively, by 2100, while the area under wet extremes will increase (Duffy et al., 2015). Our understanding of the role of plants' hydrological environments in determining their drought response, however, is limited (Chitra-Tarak et al., 2018, 2021). An important review by Costa et al. (2023; pp. 714–733) published in this issue of New Phytologist highlights that shallow-water table (WT) forests constitute c. 50% of the Amazon and may act as hydrological refugia during droughts, yet they have been neglected in Amazon forest research to date. Emerging results suggest that the shallow-WT forests that dominate the Amazon basin may increase in productivity under moderate droughts due to relief from hypoxia, suggesting a potential buffer from drought relative to deeper WT forests (Fig. 1). During severe droughts, however, shallow-WT forests may be vulnerable to collapse due to drought-intolerant traits. Addressing the underrepresentation of relatively drought-resilient shallow-WT forests in the Amazon's forest inventories may help resolve the much-debated incongruence in recent studies of the Amazon's drought resilience. Data from forest inventories (biased toward deep-WT forests) indicate that the Amazon's carbon sink is declining, partially because of drought impacts (Phillips et al., 2009; Brienen et al., 2015), whereas basin-wide satellite-based measures of gross primary productivity, which include shallow-WT forests, indicate varied regional responses to droughts (Saleska et al., 2007; Brando et al., 2010). Costa et al.'s (2023) descriptive insights of the intricate balance of geology, topography, hydrology, vegetation, and drought on ecosystem function, as well as their conceptual predictive framework, are useful for developing new empirical research in these understudied ecosystems and improving Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Estimating UV-B, UV-Erithemic, and UV-A Irradiances From Global Horizontal Irradiance and MERRA-2 Ozone Column Information

The ground ultraviolet (UV) solar radiation is relevant due to its impacts on plastics degradation (mainly UVA) and on human health (UVB and erithemic UV (UVE)). UV ground measurements are not as ubiquitous as the relatively common global horizontal irradiance (GHI) measurements. Three simple models that estimate the UVA, UVB, and UVE components of solar irradiance from GHI and ozone column information are locally adjusted and validated. Five one-minute datasets from three sites in southeastern South America and two in the United States are used for simultaneous solar irradiance and UV data. All sites correspond to temperate mid-latitude regions. Simultaneous atmospheric total ozone column information is obtained from the reanalysis modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications (MERRA-2) database for each site. Aside from locally adjusted models, average models with a single set of coefficients are also evaluated. For instance, the best average model is able to estimate UVE with a typical uncertainty below 12% and mean biases between +-3%, relative to the average of the measurements. Similar results are reported for the UVB and UVA components. These results, which can be useful in regions with similar climate and geography, provide a simple way to estimate UV irradiance under all-sky conditions with known uncertainty. This is an alternative to global satellite-based UV estimates, which can have high uncertainties at specific locations. Because MERRA-2 information has a global coverage, when coupled with good satellite-based estimates for GHI, UV irradiances can be estimated by this method over a large territory.

environmental UV radiation↗

DOE OSTI2023

Southern Hemisphere dominates recent decline in global water availability

Global land water underpins livelihoods, socioeconomic development, and ecosystems. It remains unclear how water availability has changed in recent decades. Using an ensemble of observations, we quantified global land water availability over the past two decades. We show that the Southern Hemisphere has dominated the declining trend in global water availability from 2001 to 2020. The significant decrease occurs mainly in South America, southwestern Africa, and northwestern Australia. In the Northern Hemisphere, the complex regional increasing and decreasing trends cancel each other, resulting in a negligible hemispheric trend. The variability and trend in water availability in the Southern Hemisphere are largely driven by precipitation associated with climate modes, particularly the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Finally, this study highlights their dominant role in controlling global water availability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spatiotemporal analysis of lung immune dynamics in lethal Coccidioides posadasii infection

Coccidioidomycosis, or Valley fever, is a lung disease caused by inhalation of Coccidioides fungi, prevalent in the Southwestern United States, Mexico, and parts of Central and South America. Annually, the United States reports 10,000–20,000 cases, although those numbers are expected to increase as climate change expands the fungal geographic range. While 60% of infections are asymptomatic, 40% symptomatic infections are often misdiagnosed due to similarities with bronchitis or pneumonia. A small subset of infection progress to severe illness, necessitating a better understanding of immune responses during lethal infection. Using single-cell RNA sequencing and spatial transcriptomics, we characterized lung responses during Coccidioides infection. We identified monocyte-derived Spp1-expressing macrophages as potential mediators of tissue remodeling and fibrosis, marked by high expression of profibrotic and proinflammatory transcripts. These macrophages showed elevated TGF-β and IL-6 signaling, pathways involved in fibrosis pathogenesis. Additionally, we observed significant neutrophil infiltration and defective lymphocyte responses, indicating severe adaptive immunity dysregulation in lethal, acute infection. These findings enhance our understanding of Coccidioides infection and suggest new therapeutic targets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

New approaches to an old problem: addressing spatial gaps in the World Stress Map

Abstract A well-recognized characteristic of the World Stress Map (WSM) database is the continued presence of large spatial gaps in the distribution of the data records despite the more than 40-year development history of the database. The current release has more than 30 000 high-quality (A–C) data records (often referred to as ‘stress indicators’), but while some continental areas (such as Australia) have seen a significant increase in spatial converge with the latest release, other continental regions (Africa, central Asia, most of South America) remain markedly sparse. In this contribution we (1) review the current state of the spatial distribution of stress indicators in the continental regions (above sea-level); (2) quantify the clustering of the stress indicators in the latest WSM release using the Hopkins statistic as a way to explore the current spatial distribution of the indicators and assess future WSM releases; and (3) present three approaches (joint inversion, seismic anisotropy and InSAR) that provide a way to fill in the gaps (both in the S Hmax orientation and principal stress magnitudes) in regions that lack active seismicity and where borehole drilling is cost prohibitive. These three approaches have the potential to guide procedures for improving a priori estimates of the ambient stress field in the Earth's crust and reduce the uncertainty in predicting both the magnitude and orientation of the principal tectonic stresses.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Molecular phylogenetic reassessment of eastern Atlantic Callinectes (Brachyura, Portunidae)

Abstract Several species from the genusCallinectesare economically important, yet the number of species and their geographic distributions remain unclear. Recently, one of the American species,Callinectes larvatus, was synonymized with one of the African species,C. marginatus, makingC. marginatusthe only species of the genus regarded to be amphi-Atlantic in distribution. However, there was no formal taxonomic study to support this taxonomic change, which was in contradiction to earlier studies that had provided morphological characters to support the taxonomic separation of the eastern Atlantic species from those of western Atlantic distribution.Callinectes maracaiboensishas also been questionably resurrected. Here we present a molecular based analysis for all species ofCallinectes, using the two common mitochondrial genes 16S and 12S. Our molecular data support the presence of three eastern Atlantic, three eastern Pacific, and nine western Atlantic species. Historically, it appears that the separation of Africa and South America with the opening of the Atlantic basin gave rise to sister species distributed on opposite sides of the Atlantic Ocean. In a second isolation event, the emergence of the Panamanian isthmus resulted in pairs of geminate species distributed in eastern Pacific and western Atlantic waters.

Marine & Freshwater Biology↗

DOE OSTI2020

Gargantuan Hail in Argentina

On 8 February 2018, a supercell storm produced gargantuan (>15 cm or >6 inches in maximum dimension) hail as it moved over the heavily populated city of Villa Carlos Paz in Cordoba Province, Argentina, South America. Observations of gargantuan hail are quite rare, but the large population density here yielded numerous witnesses and social media pictures and videos from this event that document multiple large hailstones. The storm was also sampled by the newly installed operational polarimetric C-band radar in Cordoba. During the RELAMPAGO campaign, the authors interviewed local residents about their accounts of the storm, and uncovered additional social media video and photographs revealing extremely large hail at multiple locations in town. This article documents the case, including the meteorological conditions supporting the storm (with the aid of a high-resolution WRF simulation), the storm's observed radar signatures, and three noteworthy hailstones observed by residents. These hailstones include a freezer-preserved 4.48-inch (11.38-cm) maximum dimension stone that was scanned with a 3D infrared laser scanner, a 7.1-inch (18-cm) maximum dimension stone, and a hailstone photogrammetrically estimated to be between 7.4 and 9.3 inches (18.8-23.7-cm) in maximum dimension, which is close to or exceeds the world record for maximum dimension. Such a well-observed case is an important step forward in understanding environments and storms that produce gargantuan hail, and ultimately how to anticipate and detect such extreme events.

Kumjian, Matthew R.↗