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The Solar Cruiser Mission

Selected by NASA as an ESPA-class rideshare technology demonstration mission to launch with the Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe (IMAP) mission in 2025, the NASA MSFC Solar Cruiser mission will mature solar sail technology for use in future Heliophysics missions, as well as missions of interest across a broad user community including NOAA, Earth, and Planetary Sciences. Solar sails, which use reflected sunlight to derive thrust, can be used to create artificial equilibria and near-indefinite station-keeping at locations sunward of L1 along the Sun Earth Line (SEL), or at any desired offset from the SEL leading or trailing the Earth in its orbit. They can change the heliocentric inclination of a spacecraft from the ecliptic to as high as solar polar, stopping and remaining at any intermediate inclination orbit in between or can be used around a range of solar system bodies. The Solar Cruiser mission will fly a small spacecraft (~100 kg) with a large (>1600 square meter) solar sail containing embedded reflectivity control devices (RCDs) and photovoltaic cells, attaining a characteristic acceleration of >0.12 mm/s2. The mission concept includes successful deployment of the solar sail, validation of all sail subsystems, controlled station-keeping inside of the Sun-Earth L1 point, demonstration of pointing performance for science imaging, and finally an increase in heliocentric inclination (out of the ecliptic plane). Solar Cruiser would serve as a pathfinder for missions that observe the solar environment from unique vantage points such as a high inclination solar mission, opening a fundamentally new range of observational capabilities for the Heliophysics Program and for space weather monitoring. Observations away from the Sun-Earth line (SEL) present unique opportunities for answering the outstanding science questions of Heliophysics, for improving space-weather monitoring and prediction, and for revealing new discoveries about our Sun and solar system. High solar inclinations are particularly compelling. Investment in, and demonstration of, the technology needed to enable polar missions is essential to making this unique vantage point a reality in the next decade.

Solar Sail↗

Assimilation of Polar Orbiting Space-Based Data and Its Impact on Weather Prediction

This portion of the Data Assimilation and Numerical Weather Prediction Benefits presentation will describe: the need for remotely sensed data, the types of observations that have been made and will be available, how satellite data have been and are being assimilated, the impact of the data on weather analysis and prediction in both the U.S and abroad and the potential impact of new observing systems on NWP. Specific observing systems that will be discussed include: satellite temperature and moisture soundings/radiances (TOVS, ATOVS, AIRS/AMSU), satellite surface winds from both passive and active microwave atmospheric motion winds (from MODIS or MISR) precipitation measurements clouds and land surface measurements (e.g. from MODIS) lidar wind profiles.

Atlas, Robert M.↗

NASA's Advancements in Space-Based Spectrometry Lead to Improvements in Weather Prediction and Understanding of Climate Processes

AIRS is a precision state of the art High Spectral Resolution Multi-detector IR grating array spectrometer that was launched into a polar orbit on EOS Aqua in 2002. AIRS measures most of the infra-red spectrum with very low noise from 650/cm to 2660/cm with a resolving power of 2400 at a spatial resolution of 13 km. The objectives of AIRS were to perform accurate determination of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles in up to 90% partial cloud cover conditions for the purpose of improving numerical weather prediction and understanding climate processes. AIRS data has also been used to determine accurate trace gas profiles. A brief overview of the retrieval methodology used to analyze AIRS observations under partial cloud cover will be presented and sample results will be shown from the weather and climate perspectives.

Susskind, Joel↗

NASA's Advancements in Space-Based Spectrometry Lead to Improvements in Weather Prediction and Understanding of Climate Processes

AIRS (Atmospheric Infra-Red Sounder), was launched, in conjunction with AMSU-A (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A) on the NASA polar orbiting research satellite EOS (Earth Observing System) Aqua satellite in May 2002 as a next generation atmospheric sounding system. Atmospheric sounders provide information primarily about the vertical distribution of atmospheric temperature and water vapor distribution. This is achieved by measuring outgoing radiation in discrete channels (spectral intervals) which are sensitive primarily to variations of these geophysical parameters. The primary objectives of AIRS/AMSU were to utilize such information in order to improve the skill of numerical weather prediction as well as to measure climate variability and trends. AIRS is a multi-detector array grating spectrometer with 2378 channels covering the spectral range 650/cm (15 microns) to 2660/cm (3.6 microns) with a resolving power (i/a i) of roughly 1200 where a i is the spectral channel bandpass. Atmospheric temperature profile can be determined from channel observations taken within the 15 micron (the long-wave CO2 absorption band) and within the 4.2 micron (the short-wave CO2 absorption band). Radiances in these (and all other) spectral intervals in the infrared are also sensitive to the presence of clouds in the instrument?s field of view (FOV), which are present about 95% of the time. AIRS was designed so as to allow for the ability to produce accurate Quality Controlled atmospheric soundings under most cloud conditions. This was achieved by having 1) extremely low channel noise values in the shortwave portion of the spectrum and 2) a very flat spatial response function within a channel?s FOV. IASI, the high spectral resolution IR interferometer flying on the European METOP satellite, does not contain either of these important characteristics. The AIRS instrument was also designed to be extremely stabile with regard to its spectral radiometric characteristics, which is critical with regard to the ability to measure accurate long term trends.

Susskind, Joel↗

Solar Cycle Prediction

Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions; just like weather predictions are needed to plan your next vacation. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5-20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. I will describe the current state of solar cycle predictions and anticipate how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future.

Pesnell, William Dean↗

Solar Cycle Predictions

Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions; just like weather predictions are needed to plan the launch. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory as you consume the reduced propellant load more rapidly. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Solar cycle predictions also anticipate the shortwave emissions that cause degradation of solar panels. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5-20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. A summary and analysis of 75 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. The current state of solar cycle predictions and some anticipations how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future will be discussed.

Pesnell, William Dean↗

Remote and Ground Truth Spectral Measurement Comparisons

FORMOSAT III are a set of six research satellites from Taiwan that were launched in April 2006. The satellites are in 800 km, 71 degree inclination orbits and separated by 24 degrees in ascending node. Ground truth spectral measurements were taken of outer surface materials on FORMOSAT III. From those measurements, a computer model was built to predict the spectral reflectance, which included phase angle and orientation of the spacecraft relative to the observer. However, materials exposed to the space environment have exhibited spectral changes including a darkening and a reddening of the spectra. This reddening was seen as an increase in slope of the reflectance as the wavelength increases. Therefore, the model of pristine materials was augmented to include the space weathering effects. Remote data were collected on two of the six FORMOSAT satellites using the 1.6 meter telescope at AMOS (Air Force Maui Optical and Supercomputing) site with the Spica spectrometer. Due to the separation in ascending node, observations were made on whichever one of the six satellites was visible on that specific night. Three nights of data were collected using the red (6000 9500 angstroms) filter and two nights of data were collected using the blue (3200 -6600 angstroms) filter. A comparison of the data showed a good match to the pristine model for the blue filter region. The absorption feature near 5500 angstroms due to the copper colored Kapton multi-layer insulation (MLI) was very apparent in the remote samples and a good fit to the data was seen in both satellites observed. The features in the red filter regime agreed with the pristine model up through 7000 angstroms where the reddening begins and the slope of the remote sample increases. A comparison of the two satellites showed similar features in the red and blue filter regions, i.e. the satellites were aging at the same rate. A comparison of the pristine model to the first month of remote measurements showed the amount by which the satellite had reddened. This information was used in the space weathered model to predict the second month s reflectance measurement. The results showed that the reddening did not increase from the first month of observations to the second. A third month of data will be necessary to determine if the reddening occurs instantly and then stabilizes with time or if the effect continues to increase with time.

Abercromby, Kira Jorgensen↗

Predicting Material Performance in the Space Environment from Laboratory Test Data, Static Design Environments, and Space Weather Models

Qualifying materials for use in the space environment is typically accomplished with laboratory exposures to simulated UV/EUV, atomic oxygen, and charged particle radiation environments with in-situ or subsequent measurements of material properties of interest to the particular application. Choice of environment exposure levels are derived from static design environments intended to represent either mean or extreme conditions that are anticipated to be encountered during a mission. The real space environment however is quite variable. Predictions of the on orbit performance of a material qualified to laboratory environments can be done using information on 'space weather' variations in the real environment. This presentation will first review the variability of space environments of concern for material degradation and then demonstrate techniques for using test data to predict material performance in a variety of space environments from low Earth orbit to interplanetary space using historical measurements and space weather models.

Minow, Josep I.↗

EIT Observations of Coronal Mass Ejections

Before the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), we had only the sketchiest of clues as to the nature and topology of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) below 1.1 - 1.2 solar radii. Occasionally, dimmings (or 'transient coronal holes') were observed in time series of soft X-ray images, but they were far less frequent than CME's. Simply by imaging the Sun frequently and continually at temperatures of 0.9 - 2.5 MK we have stumbled upon a zoo of CME phenomena in this previously obscured volume of the corona: (1) waves, (2) dimmings, and (3) a great variety of ejecta. In the three and a half years since our first observations of coronal waves associated with CME's, combined Large Angle Spectroscopic Coronagraph (LASCO) and extreme ultra-violet imaging telescope (EIT) synoptic observations have become a standard prediction tool for space weather forecasters, but our progress in actually understanding the CME phenomenon in the low corona has been somewhat slower. I will summarize the observations of waves, hot (> 0.9 MK) and cool ejecta, and some of the interpretations advanced to date. I will try to identify those phenomena, analysis of which could most benefit from the spectroscopic information available from ultraviolet coronograph spectrometer (UVCS) observations.

Gurman, J. B.↗

Forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections from Vector Magnetograms

Identification of active regions from which Earthward halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are likely to originate is important both for understanding how CMEs are produced and for prediction of hazardous space weather. In previous work, from a set of 17 MSFC (Marshall Space Flight Center) vector magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions situated within +/- 2 days of rotation from central meridian, we have evaluated four different measures of the global nonpotentiality of the magnetic field of each active region, and have found that the nonpotentiality of these active regions is strongly correlated with their CME productivity during the time interval of +/- 2 days centered on the day of the magnetogram: strongly nonpotential bipolar active regions are much more likely to produce a CME during this interval that are weakly nonpotential bipolar active regions. To further establish the use of active-region nonpotentiality for forecasting CMEs, we have expanded the sample to 19 additional bipolar active regions, with vector magnetograms taken with the upgraded MSFC vector magnetograph from September 2000 through June 2001 with support from our LWS grant (M. J. Hagyard, PI). The four global measures of nonpotentiality are the length of strong-shear, strong-field main neutral line, the net current, and two other measures of the overall twist in the magnetic field of the active-region bipole. We find: 1) The statistical significance of the correlation of the nonpotentiality of active regions with their CME productivity within +/- 2 days of the day of the magnetogram is greater than 99%. 2) 67% of the strongly nonpotential active regions produced CMEs within the +/- 2 day window, while only 17% of the weakly nonpotential ones did. 3) The statistical significance of the correlation of the nonpotentiality of active regions with their CME productivity during 0-2 days after the day of the magnetogram is about 97%. 4) 42% of the strongly nonpotential active regions produced CMEs within the 0-2 day window, while only 10% of the weakly nonpotential ones did. 5) The four different measures of an active region's nonpotentiality agree most of the time in their classification of the nonpotentiality as strong or weak (75%-90% depending on the pair of measurements). Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Moore, R. L.↗

Global Circulation and Impact of Plasmaspheric Plumes

We report results from the global circulation model of Lyon, Fedder, and Mobarry with an embedded model of the inner magnetosphere including the plasmasphere. The combination is used to initiate large numbers of representative protons on the geosynchronous orbit L shell, to assign particle weightings, to track their: subsequent trajectories in the 3D fields. This permits us to study the global circulation of plasmaspheric plumes and to compare these with Polar observations from the dayside magnetopause region . A range of events is studied from an isolated period of SBz in the solar wind,to a large storm sequence. We consider effects on circulating plasma reaching the dayside reconnection X-line, the population of the plasma sheet with ionospheric protons and the generation of ring current pressure from this source, compared with solar wind, polar wind, and auroral wind sources. We find that the transient plasmaspheric plume source is large in terms of total fluence, but of modest proportions in terms of contribution to the ring current. Implications of this and other results for improved space weather modeling and prediction will be discussed.

Moore, Thomas E.↗

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

Solar drivers of severe space weather can be predicted from line-of-sight magnetograms, via a free-energy proxy measured from the neutral lines. This can be done in near real time. In addition to depending strongly on the free magnetic energy, an active region's chance of having a major eruption depends strongly on other aspects of the evolving magnetic field (e.g., its complexity and flux emergence).

Falconer, David A.↗

First Use of Synoptic Vector Magnetograms for Global Nonlinear, Force-Free Coronal Magnetic Field Models

Context. The magnetic field permeating the solar atmosphere is generally thought to provide the energy for much of the activity seen in the solar corona, such as flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), etc. To overcome the unavailability of coronal magnetic field measurements, photospheric magnetic field vector data can be used to reconstruct the coronal field. Currently, there are several modelling techniques being used to calculate three-dimensional field lines into the solar atmosphere. Aims. For the first time, synoptic maps of a photospheric-vector magnetic field synthesized from the vector spectromagnetograph (VSM) on Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) are used to model the coronal magnetic field and estimate free magnetic energy in the global scale. The free energy (i.e., the energy in excess of the potential field energy) is one of the main indicators used in space weather forecasts to predict the eruptivity of active regions. Methods. We solve the nonlinear force-free field equations using an optimization principle in spherical geometry. The resulting threedimensional magnetic fields are used to estimate the magnetic free energy content E(sub free) = E(sub nlfff) − E(sub pot), which is the difference of the magnetic energies between the nonpotential field and the potential field in the global solar corona. For comparison, we overlay the extrapolated magnetic field lines with the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) observations by the atmospheric imaging assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Results. For a single Carrington rotation 2121, we find that the global nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) magnetic energy density is 10.3% higher than the potential one. Most of this free energy is located in active regions.

Sun: corona↗

The Kon-Tiki Mission – Demonstrating Large Solar Sails for Deep Space Missions

Two key NASA strategic documents, Our Dynamic Space Environment: Heliophysics Science and Technology Roadmap for 2014-2033 and 2013 Solar and Space Physics: Science for a Technological Society, contain over a dozen references describing the value of solar sails to enable revolutionary new observational capabilities. Based on these needs, the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) developed the Kon-Tiki mission concept to mature solar sail technology for use in future Heliophysics missions, as well as missions of interest across a broad user community (e.g., space weather and Earth polar observatories). Kon-Tiki would serve as a pathfinder for missions that observe the solar environment from unique vantage points such as the Solar Polar Imager (SPI), opening a fundamentally new range of observational capabilities for the Heliophysics Program and for space weather monitoring. Observations away from the Sun-Earth line (SEL) present unique opportunities for answering the outstanding science questions of Heliophysics, for improving space-weather monitoring and prediction, and for revealing new discoveries about our Sun and solar system. High solar inclinations are particularly compelling. Investment in, and demonstration of, the technology needed to enable polar missions is essential to making this unique vantage point a reality in the next decade. Propellantless solar sails can be used to create artificial equilibria and indefinite station-keeping at locations sunward of L1 along the SEL, or at any desired offset from the SEL leading or trailing the Earth in its orbit. They can change the heliocentric inclination of a spacecraft from the ecliptic to as high as solar polar, stopping and remaining at any intermediate inclination orbit in between. Sails can be used to hover over the Earth’s poles, using solar photon pressure to offset the Earth’s gravitational attraction, creating functional equivalents of geostationary earth orbits. The Kon-Tiki mission would fly a small spacecraft with a large (>1200 square meter) solar sail containing embedded reflectivity control devices (RCDs) and photovoltaic cells. The mission concept includes successful deployment of the solar sail, validation of all sail subsystems, controlled station-keeping inside of the Sun-Earth L1 point, attitude control of the sail with the RCDs (including spinning and despinning), demonstration of pointing performance for science imaging, and finally an increase in heliocentric inclination (out of the ecliptic).

Johnson, Les↗

The Solar Clock

The Sun is powered by a very stable source of fusion energy in its core that radiates that energy outward in a constant flow. Yet it has a cycle of magnetic dynamo activity whose strength and duration are variable. This variability, which affects the Earth's ‘space climate', points to temporal changes in the convective and diffusive transport of magnetic flux above the tachocline, where the flux is generated. The longest record we have of this variability is the time series of Sunspot Numbers (SSN). This record suggests that the interior of the Sun follows a clocklike magnetic flux production cycle with a length of close to 11.05 yr. The variations in sunspot cycle duration, as well as the sunspot number rise and fall times, their hemispheric asymmetries, and the maximum sunspot numbers of the individual cycles, are likely produced in the process of the magnetic flux transport. Helioseismology continues to shed more light on the convection zone variabilities, including the ‘torsional oscillations' that seem to have a special connection to the emerging strong magnetic fluxes that produce the sunspots. These new observations may eventually lead to an explanation for the surprisingly good correlation between the rate of sunspot appearance and the maximum sunspot number, and to a better understanding of the relationship between the solar dynamo and the sunspot number cycle. Better understanding of the polar regions awaits long-term monitoring with a polar solar mission. Better predictions of nearterm space weather could be obtained from a permanent L5 monitor.

C T Russell↗

Solar Cruiser Technology Maturation Plans

The NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) developed the Solar Cruiser mission concept to mature solar sail technology for use in future Heliophysics missions, as well as missions of interest across a broad user community (e.g., space weather and Earth polar observatories). Solar Cruiser will serve as a pathfinder for missions that observe the solar environment from unique vantage points such as a high inclination solar mission opening a fundamentally new range of observational capabilities for the Heliophysics Program and for space weather monitoring. Sustained observations away from the Sun-Earth line (SEL) present unique opportunities for answering the outstanding science questions of Heliophysics, improving space-weather monitoring and prediction, and revealing new information about our Sun and solar system. Propellantless solar sails can be used to create artificial equilibria and maintain indefinite station-keeping at locations sunward of L1 along the SEL, or at any desired offset from the SEL leading or trailing the Earth in its orbit. They can change the heliocentric inclination of a spacecraft from the ecliptic to as high as solar polar, stopping and remaining at any intermediate inclination orbit in between. Sails can be used to hover over the Earth’s poles, using solar photon pressure to offset the Earth’s gravitational attraction, creating functional equivalents of geostationary earth orbits. The Solar Cruiser mission would fly a small spacecraft with a large (>1,600 square meter) solar sail containing embedded reflectivity control devices (RCDs) and photovoltaic cells. The mission concept includes successful deployment of the solar sail, validation of all sail subsystems, controlled station-keeping inside of the Sun-Earth L1 point, attitude control of the sail with the RCDs (including spinning and de-spinning), demonstration of pointing performance for science imaging, and an increase in heliocentric inclination (out of the ecliptic). To demonstrate the requisite sail technology, the Solar Cruiser project will design, fabricate, deploy, and fly the Solar Sail Propulsion Element (SSPE). The SSPE incorporates the following three systems: • The Solar Sail System (SSS) provides the large propulsive surface required for acceleration and smaller reflectivity-changing surfaces for roll control. • The Active Mass Translator System (AMT) provides SSPE motion with respect to the sailcraft bus for pitch and yaw control. • The Solar Sail Attitude Determination and Control System (SSADCS) consists of embedded software to 1) provide autonomous sailcraft attitude estimation, attitude pointing control, and reaction wheel momentum management following sail deployment and 2) execute the uplinked inertial attitude pointing commands to maintain the desired sailcraft trajectory. The plans for maturing each of these technology systems to TRL 5 and beyond are described herein.

Solar Sail↗

Attitude Control System for the Solar Cruiser and Future Solar Sail Missions

NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is developing the Solar Cruiser solar sail mission to continue to mature solar sail propulsion. Solar Cruiser is a 95kg spacecraft capable of deploying a 1654 square meter solar sail. Solar Cruiser will demonstrate science observation capabilities and navigation in sub Lagrange Point (L1) halo-orbits. Solar Cruiser sail technology can be scaled to larger solar sail missions, including attitude control system and sail membrane and boom technology. Larger solar sails could be used to image the solar poles, enabling Solar Polar Imager (SPI) missions currently prohibitively expensive for propellant-based propulsion methods. Similarly, solar sails can be used to create artificial equilibria and indefinite station-keeping at locations sunward of Lagrange Point one, L1, along the Sun-Earth line (SEL), which can provide space-weather monitor and prediction and reveal discoveries about our Sun and solar system. To achieve the high characteristic acceleration required for larger solar sail missions such as SPI, a solar sail area of approximately 7000 square-meters would be needed. In comparison, the largest solar sail flown to date is the JAXA’s IKAROS mission with a 196 square-meters sail. Attitude control an SPI-size sail poses challenges, including station keeping under solar sail induced torques and thrust vector pointing. In this study, the scalability of the Solar Cruiser sail attitude control architecture to larger sails is studied, such as pointing control performance, mass and power requirements. Solar Cruiser attitude control actuators include propellant-based, such as ion engines, and propellantless options which create differential solar pressures to generate spacecraft torques. Propellantless attitude control includes active translation of the center of mass, Reflectivity Control Devices (RCDs), and tip vanes. The study summarizes the scalability characteristics of the different attitude control architectures for larger solar sail missions.

Solar Sail Propulsion↗

Analyzing Space Weather at Mars with MAVEN

To understand the processes driving Martian atmospheric escape to space, the MAVEN mission has been monitoring solar inputs at Mars since the spacecraft went into orbit in September 2014. MAVEN’s payload provides in situ measurements of solar wind ions and electrons, solar energetic particles, extreme ultraviolet radiation, and magnetic fields. With this comprehensive suite of instruments, the MAVEN team has monitored space weather at Mars for nearly a decade, over various parts of Solar Cycles 24 and 25. MAVEN observations have determined that space weather activity can deposit enough energy into the Martian system to enhance atmospheric escape by an order of magnitude. As the mission continues, monitoring space weather at Mars has become increasingly important to understand the Sun’s influence on the Martian environment. The MAVEN team provides regular reports of space weather activity, such as the occurrence and arrival time of coronal mass ejections as well as flare magnitude and peak times, to the Mars community when predictions suggest that a space weather-impacting event may be directed towards Mars. MAVEN provides observations of solar activity on the ‘far side’ of the Sun when Earth and Mars are near solar conjunction to augment measurements of solar observatories (e.g., SDO, STEREO, GOES, PSP, Solar Orbiter), providing a more global coverage of solar activity. Additionally, MAVEN is working closely with the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and the Moon to Mars (M2M) Space Weather Analysis Office, both located at NASA GSFC, to form the Mars Space Weather Collaboration. This collaboration utilizes MAVEN observations of space weather activity to facilitate model and prediction validation while creating tools that are available to the science community. These activities are in support of future human and robotic exploration as we identify needs to enhance current capabilities for analyzing space weather at Mars.

Gina A DiBraccio↗