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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

How Well Do Global Climate Models Simulate the Variability of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Associated with ENSO?

The variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in model simulations is assessed and compared with observations. The model experiments are 28-yr simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature from 1982 to 2009. The simulations were coordinated by the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group and conducted with five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members. The model performance is evaluated based on both individual model ensemble means and multi-model ensemble mean. The latter has the highest anomaly correlation (0.86) for the interannual variability of TCs. Previous observational studies show a strong association between ENSO and Atlantic TC activity, as well as distinctions in the TC activities during eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Nino events. The analysis of track density and TC origin indicates that each model has different mean biases. Overall, the GCMs simulate the variability of Atlantic TCs well with weaker activity during EP El Nino and stronger activity during La Nina. For CP El Nino, there is a slight increase in the number of TCs as compared with EP El Nino. However, the spatial distribution of track density and TC origin is less consistent among the models. Particularly, there is no indication of increasing TC activity over the U.S. southeast coastal region as in observations. The difference between the models and observations is likely due to the bias of vertical wind shear in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Nino, as well as the model bias in the mean circulation.

Tropical Cyclones↗
NASA NTRS2006

Contrasts in Sea Ice Deformation and Production in the Arctic Seasonal and Perennial Ice Zones

Four years (1997-2000) of RADARSAT Geophysical Processor System (RGPS) data are used to contrast the sea ice deformation and production regionally, and in the seasonal (SIZ) and perennial (PIZ) ice zones. Ice production is of seasonal ice in openings during the winter. Three-day estimates of these quantities are provided within Lagrangian elements initially 10 km on a side. A distinct seasonal cycle is seen in both zones with these estimates highest in the late fall and with seasonal minimums in the midwinter. Regional divergence over the winter could be up to 30%. Spatially, the highest deformation is seen in the SIZ north of coastal Alaska. Both ice deformation and production are higher in the SIZ: deformation-related ice production in the SIZ (approx.0.5 m) is 1.5-2.3 times that of the PIZ (approx.0.3 m): this is connected to ice strength and thickness. Atmospheric forcing and boundary layer structure contribute to only the seasonal and interannual variability. Seasonal ice growth in ice fractures accounts for approx.25-40% of the total ice production of the Arctic Ocean. Uncertainties in these estimates are discussed. By itself, this deformation-ice production relationship could be considered a negative feedback when thickness is perturbed. However, the overall effect on ice production in the face of increasing seasonal and thinner/weaker ice coverage could be modified by local destabilization of the water column promoting overturning of warmer water due to increased brine rejection; and the upwelling of the pynocline associated with increased occurrence of large shear motion in sea ice. Divergence is shown to be negligibly correlated to cyclonic motion in summer and winter in both ice zones.

Arctic Ocean↗
NASA NTRS1999

Effects of Precipitation on Ocean Mixed-Layer Temperature and Salinity as Simulated in a 2-D Coupled Ocean-Cloud Resolving Atmosphere Model

A two-dimensional coupled ocean-cloud resolving atmosphere model is used to investigate possible roles of convective scale ocean disturbances induced by atmospheric precipitation on ocean mixed-layer heat and salt budgets. The model couples a cloud resolving model with an embedded mixed layer-ocean circulation model. Five experiment are performed under imposed large-scale atmospheric forcing in terms of vertical velocity derived from the TOGA COARE observations during a selected seven-day period. The dominant variability of mixed-layer temperature and salinity are simulated by the coupled model with imposed large-scale forcing. The mixed-layer temperatures in the coupled experiments with 1-D and 2-D ocean models show similar variations when salinity effects are not included. When salinity effects are included, however, differences in the domain-mean mixed-layer salinity and temperature between coupled experiments with 1-D and 2-D ocean models could be as large as 0.3 PSU and 0.4 C respectively. Without fresh water effects, the nocturnal heat loss over ocean surface causes deep mixed layers and weak cooling rates so that the nocturnal mixed-layer temperatures tend to be horizontally-uniform. The fresh water flux, however, causes shallow mixed layers over convective areas while the nocturnal heat loss causes deep mixed layer over convection-free areas so that the mixed-layer temperatures have large horizontal fluctuations. Furthermore, fresh water flux exhibits larger spatial fluctuations than surface heat flux because heavy rainfall occurs over convective areas embedded in broad non-convective or clear areas, whereas diurnal signals over whole model areas yield high spatial correlation of surface heat flux. As a result, mixed-layer salinities contribute more to the density differences than do mixed-layer temperatures.

Li, Xiaofan↗
NASA NTRS2021

Groundwater Recharge Estimated by Land Surface Models: An Evaluation in the Conterminous U.S.

Estimating diffuse recharge of precipitation is fundamental to assessing groundwater sustainability. Diffuse recharge is also the process through which climate and climate change directly affect groundwater. In this study, we evaluated diffuse recharge over the conterminous U.S. simulated by a suite of land surface models (LSMs) that were forced using a common set of meteorological input data. Simulated annual recharge exhibited spatial patterns that were similar among the LSMs, with the highest values in the eastern U.S. and Pacific Northwest. However, the magnitudes of annual recharge varied significantly among the models and were associated with differences in simulated ET, runoff and snow. Evaluation against two independent datasets did not answer the question of whether the ensemble mean performs the best, due to inconsistency between those datasets. The amplitude and timing of seasonal maximum recharge differed among the models, influenced strongly by model physics governing deep soil moisture drainage rates and, in cold regions, snowmelt. Evaluation using in situ soil moisture observations suggested that true recharge peaks 1-3 months later than simulated recharge, indicating systematic biases in simulating deep soil moisture. However, recharge from lateral flows and through preferential flows cannot be inferred from soil moisture data, and the seasonal cycle of simulated groundwater storage actually compared well with in situ groundwater observations. Long-term trends in recharge were not consistently correlated with either precipitation trends or temperature trends. This study highlights the need to employ dynamic flow models in LSMs, among other improvements, to enable more accurate simulation of recharge.

snowmelt↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Global Structure of UTLS Ozone in GEOS-5: A Multi-Year Assimilation of EOS Aura Data

Eight years of ozone measurements retrieved from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the Microwave Limb Sounder, both on the EOS Aura satellite, have been assimilated into the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) data assimilation system. This study thoroughly evaluates this assimilated product, highlighting its potential for science. The impact of observations on the GEOS-5 system is explored by examining the spatial distribution of the observation-minus-forecast statistics. Independent data are used for product validation. The correlation coefficient of the lower-stratospheric ozone column with ozonesondes is 0.99 and the bias is 0.5%, indicating the success of the assimilation in reproducing the ozone variability in that layer. The upper-tropospheric assimilated ozone column is about 10% lower than the ozonesonde column but the correlation is still high (0.87). The assimilation is shown to realistically capture the sharp cross-tropopause gradient in ozone mixing ratio. Occurrence of transport-driven low ozone laminae in the assimilation system is similar to that obtained from the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) above the 400 K potential temperature surface but the assimilation produces fewer laminae than seen by HIRDLS below that surface. Although the assimilation produces 5 - 8 fewer occurrences per day (up to approximately 20%) during the three years of HIRDLS data, the interannual variability is captured correctly. This data-driven assimilated product is complementary to ozone fields generated from chemistry and transport models. Applications include study of the radiative forcing by ozone and tracer transport near the tropopause.

GEOS-5↗
NASA NTRS1992

Sea surface velocities from visible and infrared multispectral atmospheric mapping sensor imagery

High resolution (100 m), sequential Multispectral Atmospheric Mapping Sensor (MAMS) images were used in a study to calculate advective surface velocities using the Maximum Cross Correlation (MCC) technique. Radiance and brightness temperature gradient magnitude images were formed from visible (0.48 microns) and infrared (11.12 microns) image pairs, respectively, of Chandeleur Sound, which is a shallow body of water northeast of the Mississippi delta, at 145546 GMT and 170701 GMT on 30 Mar. 1989. The gradient magnitude images enhanced the surface water feature boundaries, and a lower cutoff on the gradient magnitudes calculated allowed the undesirable sunglare and backscatter gradients in the visible images, and the water vapor absorption gradients in the infrared images, to be reduced in strength. Requiring high (greater than 0.4) maximum cross correlation coefficients and spatial coherence of the vector field aided in the selection of an optimal template size of 10 x 10 pixels (first image) and search limit of 20 pixels (second image) to use in the MCC technique. Use of these optimum input parameters to the MCC algorithm, and high correlation and spatial coherence filtering of the resulting velocity field from the MCC calculation yielded a clustered velocity distribution over the visible and infrared gradient images. The velocity field calculated from the visible gradient image pair agreed well with a subjective analysis of the motion, but the velocity field from the infrared gradient image pair did not. This was attributed to the changing shapes of the gradient features, their nonuniqueness, and large displacements relative to the mean distance between them. These problems implied a lower repeat time for the imagery was needed in order to improve the velocity field derived from gradient imagery. Suggestions are given for optimizing the repeat time of sequential imagery when using the MCC method for motion studies. Applying the MCC method to the infrared brightness temperature imagery yielded a velocity field which did agree with the subjective analysis of the motion and that derived from the visible gradient imagery. Differences between the visible and infrared derived velocities were 14.9 cm/s in speed and 56.7 degrees in direction. Both of these velocity fields also agreed well with the motion expected from considerations of the ocean bottom topography and wind and tidal forcing in the study area during the 2.175 hour time interval.

Pope, P. A.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Section on Observed Impacts on El Nino

Agricultural applications of El Nino forecasts are already underway in some countries and need to be evaluated or re-evaluated. For example, in Peru, El Nino forecasts have been incorporated into national planning for the agricultural sector, and areas planted with rice and cotton (cotton being the more drought-tolerant crop) are adjusted accordingly. How well are this and other such programs working? Such evaluations will contribute to the governmental and intergovernmental institutions, including the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research and the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Agency that are fostering programs to aid the effective use of forecasts. As El Nino climate forecasting grows out of the research mode into operational mode, the research focus shifts to include the design of appropriate modes of utilization. Awareness of and sensitivity to the costs of prediction errors also grow. For example, one major forecasting model failed to predict the very large El Nino event of 1997, when Pacific sea-surface temperatures were the highest on record. Although simple correlations between El Nino events and crop yields may be suggestive, more sophisticated work is needed to understand the subtleties of the interplay among the global climate system, regional climate patterns, and local agricultural systems. Honesty about the limitations of an forecast is essential, especially when human livelihoods are at stake. An end-to-end analysis links tools and expertise from the full sequence of ENSO cause-and-effect processes. Representatives from many disciplines are needed to achieve insights, e.g, oceanographers and atmospheric scientists who predict El Nino events, climatologists who drive global climate models with sea-surface temperature predictions, agronomists who translate regional climate connections in to crop yield forecasts, and economists who analyze market adjustments to the vagaries of climate and determine the value of climate forecasts. Methods include historical studies to understand past patterns and to test hindcasts of the prediction tools, crop modeling, spatial analysis and remote sensing. This research involves expanding, deepening, and applying the understanding of physical climate to the fields of agronomy and social science; and the reciprocal understanding of crop growth and farm economics to climatology. Delivery of a regional climate forecast with no information about how the climate forecast was derived limits its effectiveness. Explanation of a region's major climate driving forces helps to place a seasonal forecast in context. Then, a useful approach is to show historical responses to previous El Nino events, and projections, with uncertainty intervals, of crop response from dynamic process crop growth models. Regional ID forecasts should be updated with real-time weather conditions. Since every El Nino event is different, it is important to track, report and advise on each new event as it unfolds. The stability of human enterprises depends on understanding both the potentialities and the limits of predictability. Farmers rely on past experience to anticipate and respond to fluctuations in the biophysical systems on which their livelihoods depend. Now scientists are improving their ability to predict some major elements of climate variability. The improvements in the reliability of El Nino forecasts are encouraging, but seasonal forecasts for agriculture are not, and will probably never be completely infallible, due to the chaotic nature of the climate system. Uncertainties proliferate as we extend beyond Pacific sea-surface temperatures to climate teleconnections and agricultural outcomes. The goal of this research is to shed as a clear light as possible on these inherent uncertainties and thus to contribute to the development of appropriate responses to El Nino and other seasonal forecasts for a range of stakeholders, which, ultimately, includes food consumers everywhere.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗
NASA NTRS2012

Decorrelation Times of Photospheric Fields and Flows

We use autocorrelation to investigate evolution in flow fields inferred by applying Fourier Local Correlation Tracking (FLCT) to a sequence of high-resolution (0.3 "), high-cadence (approx = 2 min) line-of-sight magnetograms of NOAA active region (AR) 10930 recorded by the Narrowband Filter Imager (NFI) of the Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) aboard the Hinode satellite over 12 - 13 December 2006. To baseline the timescales of flow evolution, we also autocorrelated the magnetograms, at several spatial binnings, to characterize the lifetimes of active region magnetic structures versus spatial scale. Autocorrelation of flow maps can be used to optimize tracking parameters, to understand tracking algorithms f susceptibility to noise, and to estimate flow lifetimes. Tracking parameters varied include: time interval Delta t between magnetogram pairs tracked, spatial binning applied to the magnetograms, and windowing parameter sigma used in FLCT. Flow structures vary over a range of spatial and temporal scales (including unresolved scales), so tracked flows represent a local average of the flow over a particular range of space and time. We define flow lifetime to be the flow decorrelation time, tau . For Delta t > tau, tracking results represent the average velocity over one or more flow lifetimes. We analyze lifetimes of flow components, divergences, and curls as functions of magnetic field strength and spatial scale. We find a significant trend of increasing lifetimes of flow components, divergences, and curls with field strength, consistent with Lorentz forces partially governing flows in the active photosphere, as well as strong trends of increasing flow lifetime and decreasing magnitudes with increases in both spatial scale and Delta t.

Welsch, B. T.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Global Assessment of the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Product Using Assimilation Diagnostics

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product provides 3-hourly, 9-km resolution, global estimates of surface (0-5 cm) and root-zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture and related land surface variables from 31 March 2015 to present with approx. 2.5-day latency. The ensemble-based L4_SM algorithm assimilates SMAP brightness temperature (Tb) observations into the Catchment land surface model. This study describes the spatially distributed L4_SM analysis and assesses the observation-minus-forecast (O-F) Tb residuals and the soil moisture and temperature analysis increments. Owing to the climatological rescaling of the Tb observations prior to assimilation, the analysis is essentially unbiased, with global mean values of approx. 0.37 K for the O-F Tb residuals and practically zero for the soil moisture and temperature increments. There are, however, modest regional (absolute) biases in the O-F residuals (under approx. 3 K), the soil moisture increments (under approx. 0.01 cu m/cu m), and the surface soil temperature increments (under approx. 1 K). Typical instantaneous values are approx. 6 K for O-F residuals, approx. 0.01 (approx. 0.003) cu m/cu m for surface (root-zone) soil moisture increments, and approx. 0.6 K for surface soil temperature increments. The O-F diagnostics indicate that the actual errors in the system are overestimated in deserts and densely vegetated regions and underestimated in agricultural regions and transition zones between dry and wet climates. The O-F auto-correlations suggest that the SMAP observations are used efficiently in western North America, the Sahel, and Australia, but not in many forested regions and the high northern latitudes. A case study in Australia demonstrates that assimilating SMAP observations successfully corrects short-term errors in the L4_SM rainfall forcing.

Reichle, Rolf↗
NASA NTRS2018

Using Data Assimilation Diagnostics to Assess the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Product

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product provides 3-hourly, 9-km resolution, global estimates of surface (0-5 cm) and root-zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture and related land surface variables from 31 March 2015 to present with approx.2.5-day latency. The ensemble-based L4_SM algorithm assimilates SMAP brightness temperature (Tb) observations into the Catchment land surface model. This study describes the spatially distributed L4_SM analysis and assesses the observation-minus-forecast (O-F) Tb residuals and the soil moisture and temperature analysis increments. Owing to the climatological rescaling of the Tb observations prior to assimilation, the analysis is essentially unbiased, with global mean values of approx. 0.37 K for the O-F Tb residuals and practically zero for the soil moisture and temperature increments. There are, however, modest regional (absolute) biases in the O-F residuals (under approx. 3 K), the soil moisture increments (under approx. 0.01 cu m/cu m), and the surface soil temperature increments (under approx. 1 K). Typical instantaneous values are approx. 6 K for O-F residuals, approx. 0.01 (approx. 0.003) cu m/cu m for surface (root-zone) soil moisture increments, and approx. 0.6 K for surface soil temperature increments. The O-F diagnostics indicate that the actual errors in the system are overestimated in deserts and densely vegetated regions and underestimated in agricultural regions and transition zones between dry and wet climates. The O-F auto-correlations suggest that the SMAP observations are used efficiently in western North America, the Sahel, and Australia, but not in many forested regions and the high northern latitudes. A case study in Australia demonstrates that assimilating SMAP observations successfully corrects short-term errors in the L4_SM rainfall forcing.

SMAP↗
NASA NTRS2019

Utilization of Airborne Observations to Assess Model Parametrizations of Critical RH Profiles in the Arctic Ocean

Observational paucity is a reality in the Arctic Ocean. This is especially true for near-surface variables such as temperature, moisture, heat fluxes and BL clouds. As a result, modeling has become one of the major avenues for understanding current and future Arctic trends. Reanalyses are frequently used to force global ocean circulation and sea-ice models. But in northern high latitudes, model integrations and reanalyses are known to have large uncertainties in temperature and humidity profiles, and in boundary layer cloudiness. These are common sources of error in the surface radiative budget terms.An important way to diagnose these biases spatially and temporally is by using satellite remote sensing data. However, remotely-sensed observations also have large uncertainties, especially in near-surface temperature and relative humidity profiles.In situ observational studies are important in bridging our knowledge gap in regions such as the Arctic Ocean. Here, we utilize airborne and ship observations from the ARISE, ACME-IV, and ASCOS campaigns to construct critical relative humidity (RH) profiles over the Beaufort Sea. Such profiles are used as parameterization inputs in the NASA GOES global model to derive the total water condensate in a model grid-box, which determines the cloud fraction. Currently, the critical RH profiles are derived by global AIRS data, relaying mostly on mid-latitude regions, which are not necessarily relevant to the Arctic.We derive campaign-wide mean, standard deviation, and critical RH values, for grid size of 50x50 km and altitude bins between 50 to 400 m, covering both open-ocean and sea-ice covered regions. We compare profiles over open ocean and sea-ice, and look at correlations between the observed critical RH values and water condensate (by cloud number concentration) from observations versus the modeled ones. We then input our calculated values of minimal critical RH values into a set of GEOS single column model (SCM) simulations over the ARISE and ASCOS regions and compare the differences between the predicted values of cloud liquid water path (LWP), ice water path (IWP) and surface fluxes with the observed ones under the range of input parameterizations. Finally, we discuss the implications on surface radiative budget predictions in this region.

Segal-Rozenhaimer, Michal↗
NASA NTRS2019

Evaluation of Satellite-Based Rainfall Estimates in the Lower Mekong River Basin (Southeast Asia)

Satellite-based precipitation is an essential tool for regional water resource applications that requires frequent observations of meteorological forcing, particularly in areas that have sparse rain gauge networks. To fully realize the utility of remotely sensed precipitation products in watershed modeling and decision-making, a thorough evaluation of the accuracy of satellite-based rainfall and regional gauge network estimates is needed. In this study, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 v.7 and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) daily rainfall estimates were compared with daily rain gauge observations from 2000 to 2014 in the Lower Mekong River Basin (LMRB) in Southeast Asia. Monthly, seasonal, and annual comparisons were performed, which included the calculations of correlation coefficient, coefficient of determination, bias, root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). Our validation test showed TMPA to correctly detect precipitation or no-precipitation 64.9% of all days and CHIRPS 66.8% of all days, compared to daily in-situ rainfall measurements. The accuracy of the satellite-based products varied greatly between the wet and dry seasons. Both TMPA and CHIRPS showed higher correlation with in-situ data during the wet season (June–September) as compared to the dry season (November–January). Additionally, both performed better on a monthly than an annual time-scale when compared to in-situ data. The satellite-based products showed wet biases during months that received higher cumulative precipitation. Based on a spatial correlation analysis, the average r-value of CHIRPS was much higher than TMPA across the basin. CHIRPS correlated better than TMPA at lower elevations and for monthly rainfall accumulation less than 500 mm. While both satellite-based products performed well, as compared to rain gauge measurements, the present research shows that CHIRPS might be better at representing precipitation over the LMRB than TMPA.

Dandridge, Chelsea↗
NASA NTRS2003

Small Particle Response to Fluid Motion Using Tethered Particles to Simulate Microgravity

This paper reports on ground based work conducted to support the Spaceflight Definition project SHIVA (Spaceflight Holography Investigation in a Virtual Apparatus). SHIVA will advance our understanding of the movement of a particle in a fluid. Gravity usually dominates the equations of motion, but in microgravity as well as on earth other terms can become important. Through an innovative application of fractional differential equations, two members of our team produced the first analytical solution of a fundamental equation of motion, which had only been solved numerically or by approximation before. The general solution predicts that the usually neglected history term becomes important in particle response to a sinusoidal fluid movement when the characteristic viscous time is in the same order as the fluid oscillation period and peaks when the two times are equal. In this case three force terms, the Stokes drag, the added mass, and the history drag must all be included in predicting particle movement. We have developed diagnostic recording methods using holography to save all of the particle field data, allowing the experiment to essentially be transferred from space back to earth in what we call the virtual apparatus for on-earth microgravity experimentation. We can quantify precisely the three-dimensional motion of sets of particles, allowing us to test and apply the new analytical solutions. We are examining the response of particles up to 2 mm radius to fluid oscillation at frequencies up to 80 Hz with amplitudes up to 200 microns. Ground studies to support the flight development program have employed various schemes to simulate microgravity. One of the most reliable and meaningful methods uses spheres tethered to a fine hair suspended in the fluid. We have also investigated particles with nearly neutral buoyancy. Recordings are made at the peak amplitudes of vibration of the cell providing a measure of the ratio of fluid to particle amplitude. The experiment requires precise location of the particle to within microns during recording, and techniques for achieving this are one of the project challenges. Focused microscopic images and diffraction patterns are used. To make the experiment more versatile, the spaceflight system will record holograms both on film and electronically. A cross correlation procedure enables sub pixel accuracies for electronic recordings, partially accommodating the lower spatial resolution of CCDs. The electronic holograms can be down linked providing real time data. Results of the ground experiments, the flight experiment design, and data analysis procedures are reported.

Trolinger, James↗
NASA NTRS2018

ALMA Spectral Line and Imaging Survey of a Low and a High Mass-Loss Rate AGB Star Between 335 and 362 GHz

Context. Low and intermediate mass stars are known to power strong stellar winds when evolving through the asymptotic giant branch (AGB) phase. Initial mass, luminosity, temperature, and composition determine the pulsation characteristics of the star and the dust species formed in the pulsating photospheric layers. Radiation pressure on these grains triggers the onset of a stellar wind. However, as of today, we still cannot predict the wind mass-loss rates and wind velocities from first principles neither do we know which species are the first to condense in the upper atmospheric regions. Aims. We aim to characterise the dominant physical, dynamical, and chemical processes in the inner wind region of two archetypical oxygen-rich (C/O<1) AGB stars, that is, the low mass-loss rate AGB star R Dor (M~ 1x10(exp 7) M☉/yr) and the high mass-loss rate AGB star IK Tau (M~5x10(exp 6) M☉/yr). The purpose of this study is to observe the key molecular species contributing to the formation of dust grains and to cross-link the observed line brightnesses of several species to the global and local properties of the star and its wind. Methods. A spectral line and imaging survey of IK Tau and R Dor was made with ALMA between 335 and 362 GHz (band 7) at a spatial resolution of ~150 mas, which corresponds to the locus of the main dust formation region of both targets. Results. Some two hundred spectral features from 15 molecules (and their isotopologues) were observed, including rotational lines in both the ground and vibrationally excited states (up to v=5 for SiO). Detected species include the gaseous precursors of dust grains such as SiO, AlO, AlOH, TiO, and TiO2.We present a spectral atlas for both stars and the parameters of all detected spectral features. A clear dichotomy for the sulphur chemistry is seen: while CS, SiS, SO, and SO2 are abundantly present in IK Tau, only SO and SO2 are detected in R Dor. Also other species such as NaCl, NS, AlO, and AlOH display a completely different behaviour. From some selected species, the minor isotopologues can be used to assess the isotopic ratios. The channel maps of many species prove that both large and small-scale inhomogeneities persist in the inner wind of both stars in the form of blobs, arcs, and/or a disk. The high sensitivity of ALMA allows us to spot the impact of these correlated density structures in the spectral line profiles. The spectral lines often display a half width at zero intensity much larger than expected from the terminal velocity, v1, previously derived for both objects (36 km/s versus v(∞)~17.7 km/s for IK Tau and 23 km/s versus v(∞)~5.5 km/s for R Dor). Both a more complex 3D morphology and a more forceful wind acceleration of the (underlying) isotropic wind can explain this trend. The formation of fractal grains in the region beyond _400 mas can potentially account for the latter scenario. From the continuum map, we deduce a dust mass of ~3.7 x 10(exp 7) M☉ and ~2 x 10(ex0 8) M☉ for IK Tau and R Dor, respectively. Conclusions. The observations presented here provide important constraints on the properties of these two oxygen-dominated AGB stellar winds. In particular, the ALMA data prove that both the dynamical and chemical properties are vastly different for this high mass-loss rate (IK Tau) and low mass-loss rate (R Dor) star.

Stars: AGB and post-AGB, Stars: mass loss, Stars: ↗
NASA NTRS2018

ALMA Spectral Line and Imaging Survey of a Low and a High Mass-Loss Rate AGB Star Between 335 and 362 GHz

Context. Low and intermediate mass stars are known to power strong stellar winds when evolving through the asymptotic giant branch (AGB) phase. Initial mass, luminosity, temperature, and composition determine the pulsation characteristics of the star and the dust species formed in the pulsating photospheric layers. Radiation pressure on these grains triggers the onset of a stellar wind. However, as of today, we still cannot predict the wind mass-loss rates and wind velocities from first principles neither do we know which species are the first to condense in the upper atmospheric regions. Aims. We aim to characterise the dominant physical, dynamical, and chemical processes in the inner wind region of two archetypical oxygen-rich (C/O < 1) AGB stars, that is, the low mass-loss rate AGB star R Dor (M’ ∼ 1 × 10(exp −7) M/yr) and the high mass-loss rate AGB star IK Tau (M’ ∼ 5 × 10(exp −6) M/yr). The purpose of this study is to observe the key molecular species contributing to the formation of dust grains and to cross-link the observed line brightnesses of several species to the global and local properties of the star and its wind. Methods. A spectral line and imaging survey of IK Tau and R Dor was made with ALMA between 335 and 362 GHz (band 7) at a spatial resolution of ∼150 mas, which corresponds to the locus of the main dust formation region of both targets. Results. Some two hundred spectral features from 15 molecules (and their isotopologues) were observed, including rotational lines in both the ground and vibrationally excited states (up to v = 5 for SiO). Detected species include the gaseous precursors of dust grains such as SiO, AlO, AlOH, TiO, and TiO2. We present a spectral atlas for both stars and the parameters of all detected spectral features. A clear dichotomy for the sulphur chemistry is seen: while CS, SiS, SO, and SO2 are abundantly present in IK Tau, only SO and SO2 are detected in R Dor. Also other species such as NaCl, NS, AlO, and AlOH display a completely different behaviour. From some selected species, the minor isotopologues can be used to assess the isotopic ratios. The channel maps of many species prove that both large and small-scale inhomogeneities persist in the inner wind of both stars in the form of blobs, arcs, and/or a disk. The high sensitivity of ALMA allows us to spot the impact of these correlated density structures in the spectral line profiles. The spectral lines often display a half width at zero intensity much larger than expected from the terminal velocity, v∞, previously derived for both objects (36 km/s versus v(∞) ∼ 17.7 km/s for IK Tau and 23 km/s versus v(∞) ∼ 5.5 km/s for R Dor). Both a more complex 3D morphology and a more forceful wind acceleration of the (underlying) isotropic wind can explain this trend. The formation of fractal grains in the region beyond ∼400 mas can potentially account for the latter scenario. From the continuum map, we deduce a dust mass of ∼3.7 × 10(exp −7) Mand ∼2 × 10(exp −8) M for IK Tau and R Dor, respectively. Conclusions. The observations presented here provide important constraints on the properties of these two oxygen-dominated AGB stellar winds. In particular, the ALMA data prove that both the dynamical and chemical properties are vastly different for this high mass-loss rate (IK Tau) and low mass-loss rate (R Dor) star.

L. Decin↗
NASA NTRS1993

A Regional Analysis of Cloudy Mean Spherical Albedo over the Marine Stratocumulus Region and the Tropical Atlantic Ocean

Since clouds are the largest variable in Earth's radiation budget, it is critical to determine both the spatial and temporal characteristics of their radiative properties. This study examines the relationships between cloud properties and cloud fraction in order to supplement grid scale parameterizations. The satellite data used in this study is from three hourly ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) and monthly ERBE (Earth Radiation Budget Experiment) data on a 2.50 x 2.50 latitude-longitude grid. Mean cloud spherical albedo, the mean optical depth distribution and cloud fraction are examined and compared off the coast of California and the mid-tropical Atlantic for July 1987 and 1988. Individual grid boxes and spatial averages over several grid boxes are correlated to Coakleys (1991) theory of reflection for uniform and broken layered cloud and to Kedem, et al.(1990) findings that rainfall volume and fractional area of rain in convective systems is linear. Kedem's hypothesis can be expressed in terms of cloud properties. That is, the total volume of liquid in a box is a linear function of cloud fraction. Results for the marine stratocumulus regime indicate that albedo is often invariant for cloud fractions of 20% to 80%. Coakley's satellite model of small and large clouds with cores (1 km) and edges (100 in) is consistent with this observation. The cores maintain high liquid water concentrations and large droplets while the edges contain low liquid water concentrations and small droplets. Large clouds are just a collection of cores. The mean optical depth (TAU) distributions support the above observation with TAU values of 3.55 to 9.38 favored across all cloud fractions. From these results, a method based upon Kedem, et al. theory is proposed to separate the cloud fraction and liquid water path (LWP) calculations in a general circulation model (GCM). In terms of spatial averaging, a linear relationship between albedo and cloud fraction is observed. For tropical locations outside the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), results of cloud fraction and albedo spatial averaging followed that of the stratus boxes containing few overcast scenes. Both the ideas of Coakley and Kedem, et al. apply. Within the ITCZ, the grid boxes tended to have the same statistical properties as stratus boxes containing many overcast scenes. Because different dynamical forcing mechanisms are present, it is difficult to devise a method for determining subgrid scale variations. Neither of the theories proposed by Kedem, et al. or Coakley works well for the boxes with numerous overcast scenes.

Ginger, Kathryn M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A regional analysis of cloudy mean spherical albedo over the marine stratocumulus region and the tropical Atlantic Ocean

Since clouds are the largest variable in Earth's radiation budget, it is critical to determine both the spatial and temporal characteristics of their radiative properties. The relationships between cloud properties and cloud fraction are studied in order to supplement grid scale parameterizations. The satellite data used is from three hourly ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) and monthly ERBE (Earth Radiation Budget Experiment) data on a 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg latitude-longitude grid. Mean cloud spherical albedo, the mean optical depth distribution, and cloud fraction are examined and compared off the coast of California and the mid-tropical Atlantic for July 1987 and 1988. Individual grid boxes and spatial averages over several grid boxes are correlated to Coakley's theory of reflection for uniform and broken layered cloud and to Kedem, et al.'s findings that rainfall volume and fractional area of rain in convective systems is linear. Kedem's hypothesis can be expressed in terms of cloud properties. That is, the total volume of liquid in a box is a linear function of cloud fraction. Results for the marine stratocumulus regime indicate that albedo is often invariant for cloud fractions of 20% to 80%. Coakley's satellite model of small and large clouds with cores (1 km) and edges (100 m) is consistent with this observation. The cores maintain high liquid water concentrations and large droplets while the edges contain low liquid water concentrations and small droplets. Large clouds are just a collection of cores. The mean optical depth (TAU) distributions support the above observation with TAU values of 3.55 to 9.38 favored across all cloud fractions. From these results, a method based upon Kedem, et al's theory is proposed to separate the cloud fraction and liquid water path (LWP) calculations in a general circulation model (GCM). In terms of spatial averaging, a linear relationship between albedo and cloud fraction is observed. For tropical locations outside the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), results of cloud fraction and albedo spatial averaging followed that of the stratus boxes containing few overcast scenes. Both the ideas of Coakley and Kedem, et al. apply. Within the ITCZ, the grid boxes tended to have the same statistical properties as stratus boxes containing many overcast scenes. Because different dynamical forcing mechanisms are present, it is difficult to devise a method for determining subgrid scale variations. Neither of the theories proposed by Kedem, et al. or Coakley works well for the boxes with numerous overcast scenes.

Ginger, Kathryn M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Evaluation of Enhanced High Resolution MODIS/AMSR-E SSTs and the Impact on Regional Weather Forecast

Over the last few years, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has been generating a 1-km sea surface temperature (SST) composite derived from retrievals of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for use in operational diagnostics and regional model initialization. With the assumption that the day-to-day variation in the SST is nominal, individual MODIS passes aboard the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua and Terra satellites are used to create and update four composite SST products each day at 0400, 0700, 1600, and 1900 UTC, valid over the western Atlantic and Caribbean waters. A six month study from February to August 2007 over the marine areas surrounding southern Florida was conducted to compare the use of the MODIS SST composite versus the Real-Time Global SST analysis to initialize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Substantial changes in the forecast heat fluxes were seen at times in the marine boundary layer, but relatively little overall improvement was measured in the sensible weather elements. The limited improvement in the WRF model forecasts could be attributed to the diurnal changes in SST seen in the MODIS SST composites but not accounted for by the model. Furthermore, cloud contamination caused extended periods when individual passes of MODIS were unable to update the SSTs, leading to substantial SST latency and a cool bias during the early summer months. In order to alleviate the latency problems, the SPoRT Center recently enhanced its MODIS SST composite by incorporating information from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS (AMSR-E) instruments as well as the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis. These enhancements substantially decreased the latency due to cloud cover and improved the bias and correlation of the composites at available marine point observations. While these enhancements improved upon the modeled cold bias using the original MODIS SSTs, the discernable impacts on the WRF model were still somewhat limited. This paper explores several factors that may have contributed to this result. First, the original methodology to initialize the model used the most recent SST composite available in a hypothetical real ]time configuration, often matching the forecast initial time with an SST field that was 5-8 hours offset. To minimize the differences that result from the diurnal variations in SST, the previous day fs SST composite is incorporated at a time closest to the model initialization hour (e.g. 1600 UTC composite at 1500 UTC model initialization). Second, the diurnal change seen in the MODIS SST composites was not represented by the WRF model in previous simulations, since the SSTs were held constant throughout the model integration. To address this issue, we explore the use of a water skin-temperature diurnal cycle prediction capability within v3.1 of the WRF model to better represent fluctuations in marine surface forcing. Finally, the verification of the WRF model is limited to very few over-water sites, many of which are located near the coastlines. In order to measure the open ocean improvements from the AMSR-E, we could use an independent 2-dimensional, satellite-derived data set to validate the forecast model by applying an object-based verification method. Such a validation technique could aid in better understanding the benefits of the mesoscale SST spatial structure to regional models applications.

Schiferl, Luke D.↗