Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Statistical Testing Approach”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Review of rotating wing dynamic stall: Experiments and flow control

Dynamic stall has been a technical challenge and a fluid dynamical subject of interest for more than fifty years; but in the last decade significant advances have been made in the understanding, prediction, modeling, and control of dynamic stall on rotors. This paper provides a summary of the state of the art of dynamic stall experiments and future directions in the understanding of dynamic stall on rotors. Experimental data sets are discussed, as well the direction of future research for control of dynamic stall. Coordinated testing between airfoils and rotating blades, as well as close integration between computational and experimental studies were found to be productive approaches. Advanced analysis methods, including statistical methods, modal representations, and artificial intelligence methods have led to significant advances in the understanding of dynamic stall. Investigations of dynamic stall control devices have allowed many useful targeted investigations of the transition to separated flow, but have not yet resulted in a commercially implemented device.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Machine‐Learning‐Assisted Stochastic Cloud Population Model as a Parameterization of Cumulus Convection

Abstract A machine‐learning‐assisted stochastic cloud population model is coupled with the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to represent fluctuations in the cloud‐base mass flux associated with the life cycles and interactions among cumulus convection cells. In this cloud population model, the size distribution and the associated cloud‐base mass flux of the convective cells are related to their previous state and to the change in the total convective area via a transition function. The convective area tendency in turn is assumed to depend on the cloud‐base mass flux that is resolved by the host WRF model. The transition function is represented by a single hidden‐layer neural network trained by the evolution of convective cell size distributions in a 1‐km grid‐spacing WRF simulation run over the Australian Monsoon region. At every grid point of the host model, the cloud population model predicts the cell size and cloud‐base mass flux distributions from which a random sample of cells is fed to an entraining parcel model that calculates precipitation as well as the associated liquid water potential temperature and total moisture tendencies. These tendencies are averaged over the cells and provided to the host model. Several regional simulations are performed over tropical and midlatitude domains to test this as a potential approach to scale‐aware parameterization. It is shown that such an approach could be a new promising path to simulating realistic precipitation statistics and propagation of precipitation associated with the Madden‐Julian Oscillation while maintaining realistic depictions of the diurnal cycle over both land and ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A hybrid approach to excited-state-specific variational Monte Carlo and doubly excited states

We extend our hybrid linear-method/accelerated-descent variational Monte Carlo optimization approach to excited states and investigate its efficacy in double excitations. In addition to showing a superior statistical efficiency when compared to the linear method, our tests on small molecules show good energetic agreement with benchmark methods. We also demonstrate the ability to treat double excitations in systems that are too large for a full treatment by using selected configuration interaction methods via an application to 4-aminobenzonitrile. Finally, we investigate the stability of state-specific variance optimization against collapse to other states’ variance minima and find that symmetry, Ansatz quality, and sample size all have roles to play in achieving stability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2017

An empirical method that separates irreversible stem radial growth from bark water content changes in trees: theory and case studies

Substantial uncertainty surrounds our knowledge of tree stem growth, with some of the most basic questions, such as when stem radial growth occurs through the daily cycle, still unanswered. Here, we employed high-resolution point dendrometers, sap flow sensors, and developed theory and statistical approaches, to devise a novel method separating irreversible radial growth from elastic tension-driven and elastic osmotically driven changes in bark water content. We tested this method using data from five case study species. Experimental manipulations, namely a field irrigation experiment on Scots pine and a stem girdling experiment on red forest gum trees, were used to validate the theory. Time courses of stem radial growth following irrigation and stem girdling were consistent with a-priori predictions. Patterns of stem radial growth varied across case studies, with growth occurring during the day and/or night, consistent with the available literature. Importantly, our approach provides a valuable alternative to existing methods, as it can be approximated by a simple empirical interpolation routine that derives irreversible radial growth using standard regression techniques. In conclusion, our novel method provides an improved understanding of the relative source–sink carbon dynamics of tree stems at a sub-daily time scale.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Harmonizing tau positron emission tomography in Alzheimer's disease: The CenTauR scale and the joint propagation model

Abstract INTRODUCTION Tau‐positron emission tomography (PET) outcome data of patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) cannot currently be meaningfully compared or combined when different tracers are used due to differences in tracer properties, instrumentation, and methods of analysis. METHODS Using head‐to‐head data from five cohorts with tau PET radiotracers designed to target tau deposition in AD, we tested a joint propagation model (JPM) to harmonize quantification (units termed “CenTauR” [CTR]). JPM is a statistical model that simultaneously models the relationships between head‐to‐head and anchor point data. JPM was compared to a linear regression approach analogous to the one used in the amyloid PET Centiloid scale. RESULTS A strong linear relationship was observed between CTR values across brain regions. Using the JPM approach, CTR estimates were similar to, but more accurate than, those derived using the linear regression approach. DISCUSSION Preliminary findings using the JPM support the development and adoption of a universal scale for tau‐PET quantification. Highlights Tested a novel joint propagation model (JPM) to harmonize quantification of tau PET. Units of common scale are termed “CenTauRs”. Tested a Centiloid‐like linear regression approach. Using five cohorts with head‐to‐head tau PET, JPM outperformed linearregressionbased approach. Strong linear relationship was observed between CenTauRs values across brain regions.

Neurosciences & Neurology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Systems Analysis of the Physiological and Molecular Mechanisms of Sorghum Nitrogen Use Efficiency, Water Use Efficiency and Interactions with the Soil Microbiome (Final Report for DE-SC0014395)

The specific project objectives were to: 1) Conduct deep census surveys of root microbiomes concurrent with phenotypic characterizations of a diverse panel of sorghum genotypes across multiple years to define the microbes associated with the most productive lines under drought and low nitrogen conditions. 2) Associate systems-level genotypic, microbial, and environmental factors with improved sorghum performance using robust statistical approaches. 3) Develop culture collections of sorghum root/leaf associated microbes that recapitulate root-enriched sequences defined in the census. 4) Perform controlled environment experiments for in-depth characterization and hypothesis testing of G sorghum x G microbe x E interactions . Validate physiological mechanisms, map genetic loci for stress tolerance, and determine the persistence of optimal microbial strains under greenhouse and field conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Linking big models to big data: efficient ecosystem model calibration through Bayesian model emulation

Data-model integration plays a critical role in assessing and improving our capacity to predict ecosystem dynamics. Similarly, the ability to attach quantitative statements of uncertainty around model forecasts is crucial for model assessment and interpretation and for setting field research priorities. Bayesian methods provide a rigorous data assimilation framework for these applications, especially for problems with multiple data constraints. However, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques underlying most Bayesian calibration can be prohibitive for computationally demanding models and large datasets. We employ an alternative method, Bayesian model emulation of sufficient statistics, that can approximate the full joint posterior density, is more amenable to parallelization, and provides an estimate of parameter sensitivity. Analysis involved informative priors constructed from a meta-analysis of the primary literature and specification of both model and data uncertainties, and it introduced novel approaches to autocorrelation corrections on multiple data streams and emulating the sufficient statistics surface. We report the integration of this method within an ecological workflow management software, Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn), and its application and validation with two process-based terrestrial ecosystem models: SIPNET and ED2. In a test against a synthetic dataset, the emulator was able to retrieve the true parameter values. A comparison of the emulator approach to standard brute-force MCMC involving multiple data constraints showed that the emulator method was able to constrain the faster and simpler SIPNET model's parameters with comparable performance to the brute-force approach but reduced computation time by more than 2 orders of magnitude. The emulator was then applied to calibration of the ED2 model, whose complexity precludes standard (brute-force) Bayesian data assimilation techniques. Both models are constrained after assimilation of the observational data with the emulator method, reducing the uncertainty around their predictions. Performance metrics showed increased agreement between model predictions and data. Our study furthers efforts toward reducing model uncertainties, showing that the emulator method makes it possible to efficiently calibrate complex models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Combining Three-Dimensional Modeling with Artificial Intelligence to Increase Specificity and Precision in Peptide–MHC Binding Predictions

The reliable prediction of the affinity of candidate peptides for the MHC is important for predicting their potential antigenicity and thus influences medical applications, such as decisions on their inclusion in T cell–based vaccines. In this study, we present a rapid, predictive computational approach that combines a popular, sequence-based artificial neural network method, NetMHCpan 4.0, with three-dimensional structural modeling. We find that the ensembles of bound peptide conformations generated by the programs MODELLER and Rosetta FlexPepDock are less variable in geometry for strong binders than for low-affinity peptides. In tests on 1271 peptide sequences for which the experimental dissociation constants of binding to the well-characterized murine MHC allele H-2D b are known, by applying thresholds for geometric fluctuations the structure-based approach in a standalone manner drastically improves the statistical specificity, reducing the number of false positives. Furthermore, filtering candidates generated with NetMHCpan 4.0 with the structure-based predictor led to an increase in the positive predictive value (PPV) of the peptides correctly predicted to bind very strongly (i.e., Kd < 100 nM) from 40 to 52% (p = 0.027). The combined method also significantly improved the PPV when tested on five human alleles, including some with limited data for training. Overall, an average increase of 10% in the PPV was found over the standalone sequence-based method. The combined method should be useful in the rapid design of effective T cell–based vaccines.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Statistical change detection of building energy consumption: Applications to savings estimation

The surge in interval meter data availability and associated activity in energy data analytics has inspired new interest in advanced methods for building efficiency savings estimation. Statistical and machine learning approaches are being explored to improve the energy baseline models used to measure and verify savings. One outstanding challenge is the ability to identify and account for operational changes that may confound savings estimates. In the measurement and verification (M&V) context, ‘non-routine events’ (NREs) cause changes in building energy use that are not attributable to installed efficiency measures, and not accounted for in the baseline model’s independent variables. In the M&V process NREs must be accounted for as ‘adjustments’ to appropriately attribute the estimated energy savings to the specific efficiency interventions that were implemented. Currently this is a manual and custom process, conducted using professional judgment and engineering expertise. As such it remains a barrier in scaling and standardizing meter-based savings estimation. Here in this work, a data driven methodology was developed to (partially) automate, and therefore streamline the process of detecting NREs in the post-retrofit period and making associated savings adjustments. The proposed NRE detection algorithm is based on a statistical change point detection method and a dissimilarity metric. The dissimilarity metric measures the proximity between the actual time series of the post-retrofit energy consumption and the projected baseline, which is generated using a statistical baseline model. The suggested approach for NRE adjustment involves the NRE detection algorithm, the M&V practitioner, and a regression modeling algorithm. The performance of the detection and adjustment algorithm was evaluated using a simulation-generated test data set, and two benchmark algorithms. Results show a high true positive detection rate (75%-100% across the test cases), higher than ideal false positive detection rates (20%-70%), and low errors in energy adjustment (<0.7%). These results indicate that the algorithm holds for helping M&V practitioners to streamline the process of handling NREs. Moreover, the change point algorithm and underlying statistical principles could prove valuable for other building analytics applications such as anomaly detection and fault diagnostics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A unified catalogue-level reanalysis of stage-III cosmic shear surveys

ABSTRACT Cosmological parameter constraints from recent galaxy imaging surveys are reaching percent-level accuracy on the effective amplitude of the lensing signal, S8. The upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory will produce subpercent level measurements of cosmological parameters, providing a milestone test of the ΛCDM model. To supply guidance to the upcoming LSST analysis, it is important to understand thoroughly the results from different recent galaxy imaging surveys and assess their consistencies. In this work, we perform a unified catalogue-level reanalysis of three cosmic shear data sets: the first year data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES-Y1), the 1000 deg2 data set from the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-1000), and the first year data from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-Y1). We utilize a pipeline developed and rigorously tested by the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration to perform the reanalysis and assess the robustness of the results to analysis choices. We find the S8 constraint to be robust to two different small-scale modelling approaches, and varying choices of cosmological priors. Our unified analysis allows the consistency of the surveys to be rigorously tested, and we find the three surveys to be statistically consistent. Due to the partially overlapping footprint, we model the cross-covariance between KiDS-1000 and HSC-Y1 approximately when combining all three data sets, resulting in a 1.6–1.9 per cent constraint on S8 given different assumptions on the cross-covariance.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Flow and Transport in Fractured Rock using Machine Learning [Slides]

Fractured systems in the subsurface play a role in many natural and engineered applications such as geologic carbon sequestration, hydraulic fracturing and underground nuclear test detection. Structural information (fracture size, orientation, etc.) plays a key role in governing the dominant physics for these systems but can only be known statistically. Traditional modeling approaches either ignore or idealize structural information at these larger scales because we lack a computational framework that utilizes it in its entirety. The work presented here integrates computational physics, machine learning and graph theory to make a paradigm shift from computationally intensive high-fidelity models to coarse-scale graphs without loss of critical structural information. We exploit the underlying discrete structure of fracture networks in systems considering flow through fractures and fracture propagation. We demonstrate that compact graph representations require significantly fewer degrees of freedom (dof) to capture micro-fracture information and further accelerate these models with Machine Learning.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improvement of Drop‐Hammer Impact Testing for Safety Assessment of High Explosives Using 10‐mg Samples

Here, in this study, we established an improved method for drop-hammer impact testing of small quantities of high explosives (10 mg). We performed about seven hundred impact tests under various experimental conditions (e.g., sandpaper vs bare anvil, different sample masses, drop-weights, and striker diameters) to determine an optimal set of conditions and reaction detection methods (e.g., gas analysis, video, and sound recordings) that give the most statistically reliable results with 10 mg samples. We used both Frequentist and Bayesian statistical approaches to compare estimates of the drop height (DH50) that initiates a reaction 50% of the time, and to quantify the associated uncertainty. Gas analysis proved to be the most reliable reaction detection method, showing unambiguous rises in HE decomposition products (e.g., CO 2 ) even when the other indicators (e.g., sound, video) were inconclusive. The impact tests performed with a bare anvil showed much better reproducibility than those conducted with sandpaper, reducing the largest uncertainty observed in the data sets by a factor of 1.7. The DH 50 values obtained from three different sample masses (10, 20, and 35 mg) fell within the uncertainties of the measurements. We demonstrated the improved procedure (i.e., 10-mg samples, gas analysis, bare anvil, and Bayesian approach) on a variety of PETN samples having different surface areas and thermal histories.

PETN↗
DOE OSTI2017

Line-of-sight effects in strong lensing: putting theory into practice

We present a simple method to accurately infer line of sight (LOS) integrated lensing effects for galaxy scale strong lens systems through image reconstruction. Our approach enables us to separate weak lensing LOS effects from the main strong lens deflector. We test our method using mock data and show that strong lens systems can be accurate probes of cosmic shear with a precision on the shear terms of ± 0.003 (statistical error) for an HST-like dataset. We apply our formalism to reconstruct the lens COSMOS 0038+4133 and its LOS. In addition, we estimate the LOS properties with a halo-rendering estimate based on the COSMOS field galaxies and a galaxy-halo connection. The two approaches are independent and complementary in their information content. We find that when estimating the convergence at the strong lens system, performing a joint analysis improves the measure by a factor of two compared to a halo model only analysis. Furthermore the constraints of the strong lens reconstruction lead to tighter constraints on the halo masses of the LOS galaxies. Joint constraints of multiple strong lens systems may add valuable information to the galaxy-halo connection and may allow independent weak lensing shear measurement calibrations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Biological Cleanliness: An Empirical Bayes Approach for Spacecraft Bioburden Accounting

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian approach to evaluation of soil biogeochemical models

Abstract. To make predictions about the carbon cycling consequences of rising global surface temperatures, Earth system scientists rely on mathematical soil biogeochemical models (SBMs). However, it is not clear which models have better predictive accuracy, and a rigorous quantitative approach for comparing and validating the predictions has yet to be established. In this study, we present a Bayesian approach to SBM comparison that can be incorporated into a statistical model selection framework. We compared the fits of linear and nonlinear SBMs to soil respiration data compiled in a recent meta-analysis of soil warming field experiments. Fit quality was quantified using Bayesian goodness-of-fit metrics, including the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) and leave-one-out cross validation (LOO). We found that the linear model generally outperformed the nonlinear model at fitting the meta-analysis data set. Both WAIC and LOO computed higher overfitting risk and effective numbers of parameters for the nonlinear model compared to the linear model, conditional on the data set. Goodness of fit for both models generally improved when they were initialized with lower and more realistic steady-state soil organic carbon densities. Still, testing whether linear models offer definitively superior predictive performance over nonlinear models on a global scale will require comparisons with additional site-specific data sets of suitable size and dimensionality. Such comparisons can build upon the approach defined in this study to make more rigorous statistical determinations about model accuracy while leveraging emerging data sets, such as those from long-term ecological research experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Qualitative Strategy for Fusion of Physics into Empirical Models for Process Anomaly Detection

To facilitate the automated online monitoring of power plants, a systematic and qualitative strategy for anomaly detection is presented. This strategy is essential to provide credible reasoning on why and when an empirical versus hybrid (i.e., physics-supported) approach should be used and to determine the ideal mix of these two approaches for a defined anomaly detection scope. Empirical methods are usually based on pattern, statistical, and causal inference. Hybrid methods include the use of physics models to train and test data methods, reduce data dimensionality, reduce data-model complexity, augment data, and reduce empirical uncertainty; hybrid methods also include the use of data to tune physics models. The presented strategy is driven by key decision points related to data relevance, simple modeling feasibility, data inference, physics-modeling value, data dimensionality, physics knowledge, method of validation, performance, data availability, and suitability for training and testing, cause-effect, entropy inference, and model fitting. The strategy is demonstrated through a pilot use case for the application of anomaly detection to capture a valve packing leak at the high-pressure coolant injection system of a nuclear power plant.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2018

Bayesian approach to model-based extrapolation of nuclear observables

Here, we considered 10 global models based on nuclear density functional theory with realistic energy density functionals as well as two more phenomenological mass models. The emulators of two-neutron separation energy residuals and Bayesian confidence intervals defining theoretical error bars were constructed using Bayesian Gaussian processes and Bayesian neural networks. By establishing statistical methodology and parameters, we carried out extrapolations toward the two-neutron dripline. While both Gaussian processes (GP) and Bayesian neural networks reduce the root-mean-square (rms) deviation from experiment significantly, GP offers a better and much more stable performance. The increase in the predictive power of microscopic models aided by the statistical treatment is quite astonishing: The resulting rms deviations from experiment on the testing dataset are similar to those of more phenomenological models. The estimated credibility intervals on predictions make it possible to evaluate predictive power of individual models and also make quantified predictions using groups of models. The proposed robust statistical approach to extrapolation of nuclear model results can be useful for assessing the impact of current and future experiments in the context of model developments. The new Bayesian capability to evaluate residuals is also expected to impact research in the domains where experiments are currently impossible, for instance, in simulations of the astrophysical r process.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Simultaneous 3D MR elastography of the in vivo mouse brain

The feasibility of sample interval modulation (SLIM) magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) for the in vivo mouse brain is assessed, and an alternative SLIM-MRE encoding method is introduced. In SLIMMRE, the phase accumulation for each motion direction is encoded simultaneously by varying either the start time of the motion encoding gradient (MEG), SLIM-phase constant (SLIM-PC), or the initial phase of the MEG, SLIM-phase varying (SLIM-PV). SLIM-PC provides gradient moment nulling, but the mutual gradient shift necessitates increased echo time (TE). SLIM-PV requires no increased TE, but exhibits nonuniform flow compensation. Comparison was to conventional MRE using six C57BL/6 mice. For SLIMPC, the Spearman’s rank correlation to conventional MRE for the shear storage and loss modulus images were 80% and 76%, respectively, and likewise for SLIM-PV, 73% and 69%, respectively. The results of the Wilcoxon rank sum test showed that there were no statistically significant differences between the spatially averaged shear moduli derived from conventional-MRE, SLIM-PC, and SLIM-PV acquisitions. Both SLIM approaches were comparable to conventional MRE scans with Spearman’s rank correlation of 69%-80% and with 3 times reduction in scan time. As a result, the SLIM-PC method had the best correlation, and SLIM-PV may be a useful tool in experimental conditions, where both measurement time and T2 relaxation is critical.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗