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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Response of the Antarctic Stratosphere to Warm Pool EI Nino Events in the GEOS CCM

A new type of EI Nino event has been identified in the last decade. During "warm pool" EI Nino (WPEN) events, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central equatorial Pacific are warmer than average. The EI Nino signal propagates poleward and upward as large-scale atmospheric waves, causing unusual weather patterns and warming the polar stratosphere. In austral summer, observations show that the Antarctic lower stratosphere is several degrees (K) warmer during WPEN events than during the neutral phase of EI Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Furthermore, the stratospheric response to WPEN events depends of the direction of tropical stratospheric winds: the Antarctic warming is largest when WPEN events are coincident with westward winds in the tropical lower and middle stratosphere i.e., the westward phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Westward winds are associated with enhanced convection in the subtropics, and with increased poleward wave activity. In this paper, a new formulation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model, Version 2 (GEOS V2 CCM) is used to substantiate the observed stratospheric response to WPEN events. One simulation is driven by SSTs typical of a WPEN event, while another simulation is driven by ENSO neutral SSTs; both represent a present-day climate. Differences between the two simulations can be directly attributed to the anomalous WPEN SSTs. During WPEN events, relative to ENSO neutral, the model simulates the observed increase in poleward planetary wave activity in the South Pacific during austral spring, as well as the relative warming of the Antarctic lower stratosphere in austral summer. However, the modeled response to WPEN does not depend on the phase of the QBO. The modeled tropical wind oscillation does not extend far enough into the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere, likely explaining the model's insensitivity to the phase of the QBO during WPEN events.

Hurwitz, Margaret M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Sensitivity of Stratospheric Geoengineering with Black Carbon to Aerosol Size and Altitude of Injection

Simulations of stratospheric geoengineering with black carbon (BC) aerosols using a general circulation model with fixed sea surface temperatures show that the climate effects strongly depend on aerosol size and altitude of injection. 1 Tg BC/a injected into the lower stratosphere would cause little surface cooling for large radii but a large amount of surface cooling for small radii and stratospheric warming of over 60 C. With the exception of small particles, increasing the altitude of injection increases surface cooling and stratospheric warming. Stratospheric warming causes global ozone loss by up to 50% in the small radius case. The Antarctic shows less ozone loss due to reduction of polar stratospheric clouds, but strong circumpolar winds would enhance the Arctic ozone hole. Using diesel fuel to produce the aerosols is likely prohibitively expensive and infeasible. Although studying an absorbing aerosol is a useful counterpart to previous studies involving sulfate aerosols, black carbon geoengineering likely carries too many risks to make it a viable option for deployment.

Kravitz, Ben↗
NASA NTRS1992

Preconditioning for stratospheric sudden warmings - Sensitivity studies with a numerical model

The phenomenon of preconditioning for sudden stratospheric warming events is investigated using a 3D primitive equation model adapted from the model used by Rose and Brasseur (1989). In order to identify the conditions that make the flow preconditioned, the model was initialized alternately with observed and with artificially constructed 'hybrid' stratospheric flow patterns. Two observed warmings were investigated, February 1979 and February 1989. The artificially constructed hybrid flow fields used upper-level winds (above 10 mb) from one period and lower-level winds (below 10 mb) from another. The results of model simulations indicate that the flow in the lower and middle stratosphere is capable of serving as a predictor of the potential for a major sudden warming, with the occurrence of a warming depending only on the lower-level winds.

Smith, Anne K.↗
NASA NTRS1985

The evolution of Ertel's potential vorticity during stratospheric sudden warmings

In the winter stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere, the disruption of the westerly vortex and associated warming of polar latitudes is a well known phenomenon. It has become apparent that some important dynamical processes in the stratosphere are highly nonlinear and are best thought of locally rather than in terms of the interaction between the zonal-mean flow and harmonic waves around latitude circles. The importance of nonlinear processes was suggested by McIntyre and Palmer (1983, 1984) who used isentropic maps of Ertel's Potential Vorticity to show that during disturbed episodes material lines may become strongly and irreversibly deformed in certain places. They adopted the term planetary wave breaking to describe this process. Isentropic maps of Q are used to follow the evolution of a Canadian warming in November - December 1981 and a particularly strong warming in January 1982. The advection of Q over large distances on isentropic surfaces was a striking feature of the flow during each event. This could be identified because of our ability to follow the movement of material lines due to the approximate conservation of Q over several days. The advection of Q was a nonlinear process because its changing distribution affected the advecting wind field. The Canadian warming did not lead to a permanent change in the structure of the westerly vortex, as defined by the coarse-grain field of Q, whereas the January event was accompanied by a substantial loss of resolved Q which was never fully recovered.

Fairlie, T. D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Connections Between the Stratosphere and Surface Weather Associated with the Stratospheric Sudden Warming in Early 2018

A major Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) occurred on 11 February 2018. This was the first major SSW since January 2013 and the first split-vortex SSW since January 2009. We examine the SSW and the tropospheric connections using the NASA MERRA-2 reanalysis (1980-2018) and the NASA GEOS Forward Processing (FP) system. A strong tropospheric wave forcing event in January 2018 displaced the stratospheric vortex off the pole. This displaced vortex persisted until the major SSW vortex split in February. At the time of the major SSW split vortex event the MERRA-2 100 hPa meridional heat flux, a measure of the tropospheric forcing on the stratosphere, attained record high values, associated with a strong tropospheric ridge over the US west coast and wave disturbances over the North Atlantic and Asia. The near-real-time GEOS-FP system forecasted the major SSW event with high skill out to 10 days. The analyses also show that after, the SSW, a steady circulation anomaly persisted over the European sector and the transient weather systems were concentrated over the North American continent, under the stronger of the two split vortices. The propagation of these synoptic-scale vortices around the deep, quasi-stationary vortex that extended from the surface into the stratosphere, is well illustrated in animations of extreme temperature changes near the surface over North America. A quantitative analysis of these synoptic waves and their propagation will examine their signatures in potential vorticity and other fields.

Pawson, S.↗
NASA NTRS2007

A New Look at Stratospheric Sudden Warmings. Part II: Evaluation of Numerical Model Simulations

The simulation of major midwinter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) in six stratosphere-resolving general circulation models (GCMs) is examined. The GCMs are compared to a new climatology of SSWs, based on the dynamical characteristics of the events. First, the number, type, and temporal distribution of SSW events are evaluated. Most of the models show a lower frequency of SSW events than the climatology, which has a mean frequency of 6.0 SSWs per decade. Statistical tests show that three of the six models produce significantly fewer SSWs than the climatology, between 1.0 and 2.6 SSWs per decade. Second, four process-based diagnostics are calculated for all of the SSW events in each model. It is found that SSWs in the GCMs compare favorably with dynamical benchmarks for SSW established in the first part of the study. These results indicate that GCMs are capable of quite accurately simulating the dynamics required to produce SSWs, but with lower frequency than the climatology. Further dynamical diagnostics hint that, in at least one case, this is due to a lack of meridional heat flux in the lower stratosphere. Even though the SSWs simulated by most GCMs are dynamically realistic when compared to the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, the reasons for the relative paucity of SSWs in GCMs remains an important and open question.

Charlton, Andrew J.↗
NASA NTRS1988

A study of the stratospheric final warming of 1982 in the Southern Hemisphere

Data obtained from stratospheric sounding units on board the NOAA-6 satellite were used to investigate the three-dimensional evolution of the final warming that takes place in the stratosphere of the Southern Hemisphere during spring, with particular attention given to the events of spring 1982. Evidence is presented for a strong influence of the topography of the Southern Hemisphere on the evolution of the final warming. An association was found between the location of anticylones in the upper stratosphere, warm pools of air in the lower stratosphere, and a climatological split of the westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere.

Mechoso, C. R.↗
NASA NTRS1975

On possible interactions between upper and lower atmosphere

Geomagnetic data was compared with data on tropospheric and stratospheric circulation characteristics; a statistically significant shrinking was found in areal extent of the stratospheric vortex from the third to the eighth day following a 'geomagnetic storm' The meridionality of the 30 640-m contour line at 10 millibars increases markedly from 5 to 8 days after the storm. During the contraction of the polar vortex edge, the mean height of the vortex central contour decreases only slightly. This indicates that a stratospheric warming event is associated with a steepening of the contour gradient rather than a warming over the entire area of the stratospheric polar vortex. The troposphere reacts to these weak, but significant, stratospheric warming events by a shrinkage of the area of the 500-millibar cold air pool. This shrinkage commences about 3 days after the stratospheric warming. The investigation indicates that the energy input into the stratosphere that is received in conjunction with the geomagnetic disturbance has to come at a propitious time, when the stratospheric-tropospheric circulation system is not already undergoing a major readjustment because of an inherent dynamic instability.

Macdonald, B. C.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interseasonal Connections between the Timing of the Stratospheric Final Warming and Arctic Sea Ice

Connections across seasons in atmospheric circulation and sea ice have long been sought to advance seasonal prediction. This study presents a link between the springtime stratosphere and Arctic sea ice in summer through autumn. The polar stratospheric vortex dominates the winter stratosphere before breaking down each spring, which is called the stratospheric final warming, as solar radiation returns to the pole. Interannual variability of this breakdown is dynamically driven, leading to different springtime tropospheric and surface circulation patterns. To examine the different impacts of delayed and early final warmings, a multimodel composite was generated from selected CMIP5 models. Additionally, regressions were performed on JRA-55 against an index of springtime polar vortex strength. In both the multimodel composites and reanalysis regressions, significant anomalies in sea ice thickness persist several months following an anomalous timing of the final warming. A later final warming or stronger springtime polar stratospheric vortex leads to negative sea ice thickness anomalies in the East Siberian Sea and positive anomalies in the Beaufort Sea in comparison with an earlier final warming or weaker polar vortex. The spring polar stratospheric vortex is related to spring polar surface circulation patterns. The winds associated with this pattern induce anomalous sea ice motion, moving ice from the East Siberian Sea toward the Beaufort Sea. Reduced sea ice in the East Siberian Sea is linked to anomalous warmth over this region in autumn. Our results suggest that the timing of the stratospheric final warming exerts an influence on the tropospheric circulation and sea ice through autumn, which has implications for seasonal climate prediction.

Kelleher, Michael↗
NASA NTRS1994

Simulations of the February 1979 stratospheric sudden warming: Model comparisons and three-dimensional evolution

The evolution of the stratopsheric flow during the major stratospheric sudden warming of February 1979 is studied using two primitive equation models of the stratosphere and mesosphere. The United Kingdom Meteorological Office Stratosphere-Mesosphere Model (SMM) uses log pressure as a vertical coordinate. A spectral, entropy coordinate version of the SMM (entropy coordinate model, or ECM) that has recently been developed is also used. Comparison of SMM simulations with forecasts performed using the University of California, Los Angeles general circulation model confirms the previously noted sensitivity of stratospheric forecasts to tropospheric forecasts and emphasizes the importance of adequate vertical resolution in modeling the stratosphere. The ECM simulations provide a schematic description of the three-dimensional evolution of the polar vortex and the motion of air through it. During the warming, the two cyclonic vortices tilt westward and equatorward with height. Strong upward velocities develop in the lower stratosphere on the west (cold) side of a baroclinic zone as it forms over Europe and Asia. Strong downward velocities appear in the upper stratosphere on the east (warm) side, strengthening the temperature gradients. After the peak of the warming, vertical velocities decrease, downward velocities move into the lower stratosphere, and upward velocities move into the upper stratosphere.

Manney, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS1974

On possible interactions between upper and lower atmosphere

Comparison of geomagnetic data with data on tropospheric and stratospheric circulation characteristics shows a statistically highly significant shrinking in areal extent of the stratospheric vortex from the third to the eight day following a geomagnetic storm. During the contraction of the polar vortex edge, the mean height of the vortex central contour decreases only slightly. This indicates that a stratospheric warming event is associated with a steepening of the contour gradient rather than a warming over the entire area of the stratospheric polar vortex. The troposphere reacts to these weak, but nevertheless significant stratospheric warming events by a shrinkage of the area of the 500-mb cold air pool. It is shown that the observed warming of the stratosphere that follows a geomagnetically disturbed key day cannot be explained by simple radiation absorption.

Macdonald, B. C.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Simulation of the December 1998 Stratospheric Major Warming

Prior to 1991, major warmings (defined by increasing zonal mean temperatures and zonal mean easterly winds from 60degN to the pole at 10 hPa) typically occurred approximately once every two Arctic winters; a major warming in mid-Dec. 1998 was the first since Feb. 1991. The Dec. 1998 warming was also the second earliest on record. The earliest, and the only other major warming on record before the end of Dec. was in early Dec 1987; prior to that, the earliest was in late Dec./early Jan. 1984-85. The 1984-85 and 1987 warmings resulted in the warmest and weakest lower stratospheric polar vortices in the 20 years before 1998-99. Fig. 1 compares temperatures and vortex strength in 1998-99 with those in the previous 20 years, using the US National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) record; 1987-88 and 1984-85 are also highlighted. The Dec. 1998 warming had a more pronounced effect on mid-stratospheric temperatures than the Dec. 1987 warming (Fig. 1a), although smaller than that of warmings later in winter (e.g., 1984-85). 10-hPa temperatures fell well below average again in late Jan. 1999 and remained unusually low until an early final warming began in late Feb. 840 K PV gradients (Fig. 1c) set a record minimum in Jan. 1999, but were near average in Feb before the final warming. The effect of the Dec. 1998 warming on lower stratospheric temperatures was comparable to that of other major warmings; there was a brief period of record-high minimum 46-hPa temperatures in early Jan 1999 (Fig. 1b), and temperatures then fell to near average for a short period in mid-Feb. Lower stratospheric PV gradients were the weakest on record during the 1998-99 winter (Fig. 1d). The evolution of the vortex and minimum temperatures during 1998-99 was remarkably similar to that during 1987-88, the only previous year when a major warming was observed before the end of Dec.

Manney, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The stratospheric major warming of early December 1987

The NMC observations of temperature and geopotential carried out during the stratospheric major warming event of early December 1987 are analyzed. The December 1987 warming event displayed features typical of other major warmings, including vortex displacement, erosion, and splitting and, as such, was the earliest major warming yet observed in the Northern Hemisphere winter. The December 1987 major warming was unusual in that it took place during the (deep) westerly phase of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation and was not preceded by any significant preconditioning of the extratropical vortex. It is suggested that this unusually early major warming was mainly attributable to an anomalously large tropospheric forcing.

Baldwin, Mark P.↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Major Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013: Analyses and Forecasts in the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System

We examine the major stratosphere sudden warming (SSW) that occurred on 6 January 2013, using output from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) GEOS-5 (Goddard Earth Observing System) near-real-time data assimilation system (DAS). Results show that the major SSW of January 2013 falls into the vortex splitting type of SSW, with the initial planetary wave breaking occurring near 10 hPa. The vertical flux of wave activity at the tropopause responsible for the SSW occurred mainly in the Pacific Hemisphere, including the a pulse associated with the preconditioning of the polar vortex by wave 1 identified on 23 December 2012. While most of the vertical wave activity flux was in the Pacific Hemisphere, a rapidly developing tropospheric weather system over the North Atlantic on 28 December is shown to have produced a strong transient upward wave activity flux into the lower stratosphere coinciding with the peak of the SSW event. In addition, the GEOS-5 5-day forecasts accurately predicted the major SSW of January 2013 as well as the upper tropospheric disturbances responsible for the warming. The overall success of the 5-day forecasts provides motivation to produce regular 10-day forecasts with GEOS-5, to better support studies of stratosphere-troposphere interaction.

SSW↗
NASA NTRS1992

Preconditioning for stratospheric sudden warmings - Sensitivity studies with a numerical model

Results are presented of numerical experiments performed to determine what constitutes preconditioning for stratospheric sudden warmings. A number of 20-d runs were performed with a 3D primitive equation model. Runs varied in that they had different (zonally symmetric) initial fields and different lower boundary planetary wave fields, both based on NMC data for particular days. Initial and boundary data were used from the two minor and the sole major sudden warmings of January-February 1979 and some minor and the sole major sudden warmings of January-February 1989. To isolate the properties of the initial conditions from preconditioned cases and those with no warming, hybrid initial fields were created by combining data from two different days, one preconditioned and the other not. Runs with the hybrid initial conditions indicate that it is the lower stratospheric winds that are important in characterizing a preconditioned flow. It is suggested that it would be possible for a preconditioned state to exist for at least a short time without a warming occurring.

Smith, Anne K.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Numerical simulation of stratospheric sudden warmings with a primitive equation spectral model

A 26-level primitive equation spherical harmonic spectral model allowing for wave-wave and wave-zonal flow interactions is presented for the study of stratospheric sudden warmings. The warmings are simulated by the forcing of a single planetary wave at the tropopause. Four numerical experiments were performed. Nonlinear wave-wave interactions appear to play an important role in the evolution of the flow and temperature fields in the middle to upper stratosphere. In the case involving both wave-wave and wave-zonal flow interactions, this was manifested by the split in the initial polar vortex into a quasi-wave number 2 pattern. In the cases at 60 deg N, easterlies develop first in the upper mesosphere and descend gradually. About the same time or a little later, easterlies also develop in the mid-stratosphere. The linear cases exhibit warmings which are more shallow and more intense at 30 km than the nonlinear cases.

Lordi, N. J.↗