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SIAM-SERVIR: An Environmental Monitoring and Decision Support System for Mesoamerica

In 2002/2003 NASA, the World Bank and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) joined with the Central American Commission for Environment and Development (CCAD) to develop an advanced decision support system for Mesoamerica (named SERVIR) as part of the Mesoamerican Environmental Information System (SIAM). Mesoamerica, composed of the seven Central American countries and the five southernmost states of Mexico, make up only a small fraction of the world's land surface. However, the region is home to seven to eight percent of the planet's biodiversity (14 biosphere reserves, 31 Ramsar sites, 8 world heritage sites, 589 protected areas) and 45 million people including more than 50 different ethnic groups. Today Mesoamerica's biological and cultural diversity is severely threatened by extensive deforestation, illegal logging, water pollution, and uncontrolled slash and burn agriculture. Additionally, Mesoamerica's distinct geology and geography result in disproportionate vulnerability to natural disasters such as earthquakes, hurricanes, drought, and volcanic eruptions. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, together with the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) and the SIAM-SERVIR partners are developing state-of-the-art decision support tools for environmental monitoring as well as disaster prevention and mitigation in Mesoamerica. These partners are contributing expertise in space-based observation with information management technologies and intimate knowledge of local ecosystems to create a system that is being used by scientists, educators, and policy makers to monitor and forecast ecological changes, respond to natural disasters and better understand both natural and human induced effects. In its first year of development and operation, the SIAM-SERVIR project has already yielded valuable information on Central American fires, weather conditions, and the first ever real-time data on red tides. This paper presents the progress thus far in the development of SIAM-SERVIR and the plans for the future.

Irwin, D. E.↗

SIAM-SERVIR: An Environmental Monitoring and Decision Support System for Mesoamerica

In 2002/2003 NASA, the World Bank and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) joined with the Central American Commission for Environment and Development (CCAD) to develop an advanced decision support system for Mesoamerica (named SERVIR) as part of the Mesoamerican Environmental Information System (SIAM). Mesoamerica - composed of the seven Central American countries and the five southernmost states of Mexico - make up only a small fraction of the world s land surface. However, the region is home to seven to eight percent of the planet s biodiversity (14 biosphere reserves, 31 Ramsar sites, 8 world heritage sites, 589 protected areas) and 45 million people including more than 50 different ethnic groups. Today Mesoamerica s biological and cultural diversity is severely threatened by extensive deforestation, illegal logging, water pollution, and uncontrolled slash and burn agriculture. Additionally, Mesoamerica's distinct geology and geography result in disproportionate vulnerability to natural disasters such as earthquakes, hurricanes, drought, and volcanic eruptions. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, together with the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) and the SIAM-SERVIR partners are developing state-of-the-art decision support tools for environmental monitoring as well as disaster prevention and mitigation in Mesoamerica. These partners are contributing expertise in space-based observation with information management technologies and intimate knowledge of local ecosystems to create a system that is being used by scientists, educators, and policy makers to monitor and forecast ecological changes, respond to natural disasters and better understand both natural and human induced effects. In its first year of development and operation, the SIAM-SERVIR project has already yielded valuable information on Central American fires, weather conditions, and the first ever real-time data on red tides. This paper presents the progress thus far in the development of SIAM-SERVIR and the plans for the future.

Irwin, Daniel E.↗

Searching for Hyperspectral Optical Proxies to Aid Chesapeake Bay Resource Managers in the Detection of Poor Water Quality

Shellfish aquaculture is a growing industry in the Chesapeake Bay. As population grows near the coast, extreme weather events cause a greater volume of pollutant runoff from impervious surfaces and agricultural lands. Resource managers who monitor shellfish beds need reliable information on a variety of water quality indicators at higher frequency than is possible through field monitoring programs and at a higher level of detail than current satellite products can provide. Although many factors causing degraded water quality that can impact human health are not currently discernable by traditional multispectral techniques, hyperspectral imagery offers a new opportunity to detect phytoplankton communities associated with harmful algal blooms and biotoxin production. Together with resource managers in their routine monitoring of sites around the bay from small boats, we have been exploring remotely sensed optical proxies for the detection of harmful algal blooms and sewage. Early warning by remote sensing could guide sampling and improve the efficiency of shellfish bed closures, ultimately improving health outcomes for humans and animals. An extensive network of routine sampling by Chesapeake Bay Program managers makes this is an ideal location to develop and test future satellite data products to support management decisions. Next generation hyperspectral measurements from the future Plankton Aerosol Cloud ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission at nearly daily frequency, combined with the potential of higher spatial resolution from the Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) observing system recommended in the recent Decadal Survey, along with high frequency observations from the newly selected Geostationary Littoral Imaging and Monitoring Radiometer (GLIMR) Earth Venture Instrument make this a critical time for defining the needs of the aquaculture and resource management community to save lives, time, and money.

Schollaert Uz, Stephanie↗

Analysis of Ultra High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature Level 4 Datasets

Sea surface temperature (SST) studies are often focused on improving accuracy, or understanding and quantifying uncertainties in the measurement, as SST is a leading indicator of climate change and represents the longest time series of any ocean variable observed from space. Over the past several decades SST has been studied with the use of satellite data. This allows a larger area to be studied with much more frequent measurements being taken than direct measurements collected aboard ship or buoys. The Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) is an international project that distributes satellite derived sea surface temperatures (SST) data from multiple platforms and sensors. The goal of the project is to distribute these SSTs for operational uses such as ocean model assimilation and decision support applications, as well as support fundamental SST research and climate studies. Examples of near real time applications include hurricane and fisheries studies and numerical weather forecasting. The JPL group has produced a new 1 km daily global Level 4 SST product, the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR), that blends SST data from 3 distinct NASA radiometers: the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer ? Earth Observing System(AMSRE). This new product requires further validation and accuracy assessment, especially in coastal regions.We examined the accuracy of the new MUR SST product by comparing the high resolution version and a lower resolution version that has been smoothed to 19 km (but still gridded to 1 km). Both versions were compared to the same data set of in situ buoy temperature measurements with a focus on study regions of the oceans surrounding North and Central America as well as two smaller regions around the Gulf Stream and California coast. Ocean fronts exhibit high temperature gradients (Roden, 1976), and thus satellite data of SST can be used in the detection of these fronts. In this case, accuracy is less of a concern because the primary focus is on the spatial derivative of SST. We calculated the gradients for both versions of the MUR data set and did statistical comparisons focusing on the same regions.

sea surface temperature SST)↗

The Future: Nasa’s Surface Biology and Geology Mission and the Dark (Aquatic) Side

With the release of NASA’s Earth System Observatory (ESO) measurement targets that includes studying the Earth’s Surface Biology and Geology (SBG), a global visible to shortwave infrared imaging spectrometer and a multispectral thermal infrared imager have been planned to launch in the late 2020s. This mission will enable unprecedented interdisciplinary science and applications relevant to studying the biology and geology of the Earth's surface. Measurement targets are directly aligned for studying coastal and inland waters ecosystems and water quality, including coralreef ecosystems, snow and ice, mineralogy, volcanology, biology, ecology, biodiversity, and components of radiative forcing from the surface such as greenhouse gas emissions. The observations not only have scientific value in studying feedbacks and interactions of surface processes (e.g., harmful algal blooms, domoic acid, oil spills, and other hazardous events), but also societal benefit – with the capacity to support real-world decision-making such as response to theseevents and inland water conservation, protection of drinking water quality for public and environmental health, and habitat conservation. The work presented here outlines the conducted mission and architecture study and the initiation of science performance trades (signal sensitivity; spectral, spatial, and temporal resolution; and atmospheric effects) informing the design of the SBG segment of the ESO providing the most value to myriad science and applications as possible. Science and applications synergies and algorithms with the Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, and ocean Ecosystem (PACE) and the Geostationary Littoral Imaging and Monitoring Radiometer (GLIMR) is opportunistic for advancing aquatics research and applications.

THE FUTURE↗

Hyper-Spectral Infrared Remote Sensing for Wildfire-Related Research and Air Quality Monitoring

The National Airborne Sounder Testbed-Interferometer (NAST-I) is an airborne FTS remote sensor that nominally flies on NASA high-altitude aircraft to serve as a spaceborne instrument simulator. NAST-I continues to serve as a pathfinder for future satellite FTS systems and the next generation advanced atmospheric sounders in general. NAST-I provides high resolution spectrally resolved infrared radiances. NAST-I retrieval products characterizing the surface (i.e., skin temperature and spectral emissivity), atmosphere (i.e., profiles of temperature, moisture, ozone, carbon monoxide, and other trace species), and clouds (e.g., optical depth, particle size, temperature, and height) can be used to support fire-related monitoring and research. NAST-I provided 3-d characterizations of wildfire-induced plumes of CO during the FIREX-AQ field campaign (conducted during 2019) which showed the intensity and size evolution of wildfire plumes at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Wildfire-induced CO plumes, in conjunction with their evolution, transport, and age have been identified and recently published in scientific journals. Other research applications, such as surface emissivity changes due to fire burning of ground landscape, have been under investigation. These products could be used in support of wildfire management to better inform decision making and operations for pre-, active, and post-fire environments.

remote sensing↗

Considerations for Health and Performance During Surface Extravehicular Activities

BACKGROUND: NASA’s objectives for expanding human presence beyond low Earth orbit will require Extravehicular Activities (EVAs) on lunar and planetary surfaces. Given the physiological and functional demands of conducting surface EVAs in a pressurized spacesuit in reduced gravity environments, there is a possibility that crew injury and compromised physiological and/or functional performance may present. OVERVIEW: Many human health and performance knowledge gaps exist in regards to exploration EVA that require characterization to ensure safety, reliability, and mission success. To address knowledge gaps, EVA simulations in Earth-based analog environments and/or spacesuit simulators can be utilized to provide valuable insights into task-based physiologic and metabolic costs, cognitive loads, and associated operational limitations to inform future mission concepts. Physical workloads approaching 60% of maximum metabolic rates and 85% age-predicted heart rate maxima; core body temperatures approaching 100o F; and subjective responses indicating limited spare cognitive capacity via Bedford scale have been observed during ground-based exploration EVA simulations in the NASA Active Response Gravity Offload Simulator (ARGOS) and Neutral Buoyancy Lab (NBL) during simulated planetary EVAs in pressurized suits. Further, ground-based EVA analogs vary in their ability to simulate planetary EVA and resulting physical workloads. DISCUSSION: Metabolic costs, thermal burdens, functional strength, and cognitive impacts have been and must continue to be assessed in ground-based analogs to fully characterize operational demands and crew readiness levels for exploration EVA. Considerations should be given to enabling a new concept of high-tempo surface EVA operations and associated work-rest intervals, understanding human health and performance impacts of evolving commercial suit designs and capabilities, and predictive modeling and decision support capabilities to enable safe and successful EVA operations.

EVA↗

Considerations for Health and Performance during Surface Extravehicular Activities

BACKGROUND: NASA’s objectives for expanding human presence beyond low Earth orbit will require Extravehicular Activities (EVAs) on lunar and planetary surfaces. Given the physiological and functional demands of conducting surface EVAs in a pressurized spacesuit in reduced gravity environments, there is a possibility that crew injury and compromised physiological and/or functional performance may present. OVERVIEW: Many human health and performance knowledge gaps exist in regards to exploration EVA that require characterization to ensure safety, reliability, and mission success. To address knowledge gaps, EVA simulations in Earth-based analog environments and/or spacesuit simulators can be utilized to provide valuable insights into task-based physiologic and metabolic costs, cognitive loads, and associated operational limitations to inform future mission concepts. Physical workloads approaching 60% of maximum metabolic rates and 85% age-predicted heart rate maxima; core body temperatures approaching 100° F; and subjective responses indicating limited spare cognitive capacity via Bedford scale have been observed during ground-based exploration EVA simulations in the NASA Active Response Gravity Offload Simulator (ARGOS) and Neutral Buoyancy Lab (NBL) during simulated planetary EVAs in pressurized suits. Further, ground-based EVA analogs vary in their ability to simulate planetary EVA and resulting physical workloads. DISCUSSION: Metabolic costs, thermal burdens, functional strength, and cognitive impacts have been and must continue to be assessed in ground-based analogs to fully characterize operational demands and crew readiness levels for exploration EVA. Considerations should be given to enabling a new concept of high-tempo surface EVA operations and associated work-rest intervals, understanding human health and performance impacts of evolving commercial suit designs and capabilities, and predictive modeling and decision support capabilities to enable safe and successful EVA operations.

P Estep↗

Is Mars Sample Return Required Prior to Sending Humans to Mars?

Prior to potentially sending humans to the surface of Mars, it is fundamentally important to return samples from Mars. Analysis in Earth's extensive scientific laboratories would significantly reduce the risk of human Mars exploration and would also support the science and engineering decisions relating to the Mars human flight architecture. The importance of measurements of any returned Mars samples range from critical to desirable, and in all cases these samples will would enhance our understanding of the Martian environment before potentially sending humans to that alien locale. For example, Mars sample return (MSR) could yield information that would enable human exploration related to 1) enabling forward and back planetary protection, 2) characterizing properties of Martian materials relevant for in situ resource utilization (ISRU), 3) assessing any toxicity of Martian materials with respect to human health and performance, and 4) identifying information related to engineering surface hazards such as the corrosive effect of the Martian environment. In addition, MSR would be engineering 'proof of concept' for a potential round trip human mission to the planet, and a potential model for international Mars exploration.

biohazards↗

Surface Traffic Management Research

This presentation discusses an overview of the surface traffic management research conducted by NASA Ames. The concept and human-in-the-loop simulation of the Spot and Runway Departure Advisor (SARDA), an integrated decision support tool for the tower controllers and airline ramp operators, is also discussed.

Jung, Yoo Chul↗

Advanced construction management for lunar base construction - Surface operations planner

The study proposes a conceptual solution and lays the framework for developing a new, sophisticated and intelligent tool for a lunar base construction crew to use. This concept integrates expert systems for critical decision making, virtual reality for training, logistics and laydown optimization, automated productivity measurements, and an advanced scheduling tool to form a unique new planning tool. The concept features extensive use of computers and expert systems software to support the actual work, while allowing the crew to control the project from the lunar surface. Consideration is given to a logistics data base, laydown area management, flexible critical progress scheduler, video simulation of assembly tasks, and assembly information and tracking documentation.

Kehoe, Robert P.↗

Lunar/Mars Surface Habitat Mockups Project

Surface habitats play a centric role with respect to integration of the crew operations and supporting surface systems for external operations on the moon and Mars. Up to now the only planetary surface habitat NASA has ever developed is the 2-person, 3-day duration Lunar Module from the 1960 s-era Apollo Program. Today s National Vision for Space Exploration pushes far beyond the safety, performance and operational requirements of the Lunar Module, and NASA needs to develop a basis for making habitat design decisions Experience has shown that using mockups very early in a project s life cycle is extremely beneficial, providing data that influences requirements for human design, volumetrics, functionality, systems hardware and operations. Evaluating and comparing a variety of habitat configurations will provide NASA with a cost-effective basis for trades to support lunar and Martian habitat design selection. This paper describes the NASA project that recently has been created to undertake the development and evaluation of a series of planetary surface habitat mockups. This project is in direct response to the Advanced Space Platforms and Systems (ASPS) Element Program s request for novel systems approaches for robust and reconfigurable habitation systems.

Tri, Terry O.↗

Applications of Satellite Data to Support Improvements in Irrigation and Groundwater Management in California

In agricultural regions around the world, threats to water supplies from drought and groundwater depletion are driving increased demand for tools to advance agricultural water use efficiency and support sustainable groundwater management. Satellite mapping of evapotranspiration (ET) from irrigated agricultural lands can provide agricultural producers and water resource managers with information that can be used to both optimize ag water use and improve estimates of groundwater withdrawals for irrigation. We describe the development of two remote sensing-based tools for ET mapping in California, including important lessons in terms of system design, partnership development, and transition to operations. For irrigation management, the integration of satellite data and surface sensor networks to provide timely delivery of information on crop water requirements can make irrigation scheduling more practical, convenient, and accurate.Developed through a partnership between NASA and the CA Department of Water Resources, the Satellite Irrigation Management Support (SIMS) framework integrates satellite data with information from agricultural weather networks to map crop canopy development and crop water requirements at the scale of individual fields. Information is distributed to agricultural producers and water managers via a web-based interface and web data services. SIMS also provides an API that facilitates integration with other irrigation decision support tools, such as CropManage and IrriQuest. Field trials using these integrated tools have shown that they can be used to sustain yields while improving water use efficiency and nutrient management. For sustainable groundwater management, the combination of satellite-derived estimates of ET and data on surface water deliveries for irrigation can increase the accuracy of estimates of groundwater pumping. We are developing an OpenET platform to facilitate access to ET data from multiple models and accelerate operational use of ET data in support of a range of water management applications, including implementation of the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act in CA. By providing a shared basis for decision making, we anticipate that the OpenET platform will accelerate implementation of solutions for sustainable groundwater management.

Satellite↗

An Assessment of CFD Effectiveness for Vortex Flow Simulation to Meet Preliminary Design Needs

The low-speed flight and transonic maneuvering characteristics of combat air vehicles designed for efficient supersonic flight are significantly affected by the presence of free vortices. At moderate-to-high angles of attack, the flow invariably separates from the leading edges of the swept slender wings, as well as from the forebodies of the air vehicles, and rolls up to form free vortices. The design of military vehicles is heavily driven by the need to simultaneously improve performance and affordability.1 In order to meet this need, increasing emphasis is being placed on using Modeling & Simulation environments employing the Integrated Product & Process Development (IPPD) concept. The primary focus is on expeditiously providing design teams with high-fidelity data needed to make more informed decisions in the preliminary design stage. Extensive aerodynamic data are needed to support combat air vehicle design. Force and moment data are used to evaluate performance and handling qualities; surface pressures provide inputs for structural design; and flow-field data facilitate system integration. Continuing advances in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) provide an attractive means of generating the desired data in a manner that is responsive to the needs of the preliminary design efforts. The responsiveness is readily characterized as timely delivery of quality data at low cost.

Raj, P.↗

Choosing Mars-Time: Analysis of the Mars Exploration Rover Experience

This paper focuses on the Mars Exploration Rover (MER) mission decision to work on Mars Time and the implications of that decision on the tactical surface operations process as personnel planned activities and created a new command load for work on each Martian sol. The paper also looks at tools that supported the complexities of Mars Time work, and makes some comparisons between Earth and Mars time scheduling.

Bass, Deborah S.↗

A MODIS-Based Automated Flood Monitoring System for Southeast Asia

Flood disasters in Southeast Asia result in significant loss of life and economic damage. Remote sensing information systems designed to spatially and temporally monitor floods can help governments and international agencies formulate effective disaster response strategies during a flood and ultimately alleviate impacts to population, infrastructure, and agriculture. Recent destructive flood events in the Lower Mekong River Basin occurred in 2000, 2011, 16 2013, and 2016 (http://ffw.mrcmekong.org/historical_rec.htm, April 24, 2017). The large spatial distribution of flooded areas and lack of proper gauge data in the region makes accurate monitoring and assessment of impacts of floods difficult. Here, we discuss the utility of applying satellite-based Earth observations for improving flood inundation monitoring over the flood-prone Lower Mekong River Basin. We present a methodology for determining near real-time surface water extent associated with current and historic flood events by training surface water classifiers from 8-day, 250-meter Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data spanning the length of the MODIS satellite record. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) signature of permanent water bodies (MOD44W; Carroll et al., 2009) is used to train surface water classifiers which are applied to a time period of interest. From this, an operational nowcast flood detection component is produced using twice daily imagery acquired at 3-hour latency which performs image compositing routines to minimize cloud cover. Case studies and accuracy assessments against radar-based observations for historic flood events are presented. The customizable system has been transferred to regional organizations and near real-time derived surface water products are made available through a web interface platform. Results highlight the potential of near real-time observation and impact assessment systems to serve as effective decision support tools for governments, international agencies, and disaster responders.

Mekong River↗

Objective Structured Clinical Evaluation (OSCE) of an Artificial Intelligence (AI) Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) Tool

BACKGROUND Objective Structured Clinical Evaluations (OSCEs) have long been established as a robust methodology for summative assessment of clinical skills and decision-making during medical education. The recent integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into clinical decision-making processes has prompted the need for novel evaluation frameworks to assess the efficacy and reliability of AI clinical decision support system (CDSS) tools. This abstract outlines the process of quantitatively evaluating a novel CDSS (“Doc in a Box” Google 2024) trained on curated medical spaceflight data in the psychomotor domain as it interfaces with a human volunteer acting as the crew medical officer (CMO). PURPOSE The AI CDSS under review was developed as part of the Lunar Command and Control Interoperability (LuCCI) project, which is intended to address a gap in how Lunar Surface Systems (LSS) would interoperate across multiple programs, commercial partners, and international partners. The project objective is to define, prototype, integrate, and evaluate an interoperable lunar command, control, data, and software reference architecture to enable autonomy and informatics capability through common standards across LSS. A multi-modal AI-based CDSS compatible with Federated LSS will assist clinicians in diagnosing and managing complex medical conditions by providing evidence-based recommendations through predictive analytics. Given the critical role of decision-support as NASA continues to evolve its Earth-independent medical operations (EIMO), it is imperative to ensure that such AI tools perform reliably and align with clinical standards during progressive lunar and Martian exploration class missions. METHODS The OSCE framework, traditionally used for evaluating human clinicians, was adapted to assess the AI tool's decision-making capabilities in simulated clinical scenarios. In this adapted OSCE, the AI CDSS was tested across a series of structured clinical scenarios designed to mimic real-life spaceflight patient cases. These scenarios included a range of conditions and complexities, allowing for comprehensive assessment of the tool's performance. Key evaluation metrics included accuracy of diagnosis, timeliness of decision-making, and appropriate recommendations for therapies. The OSCE was scored by human physician evaluators who assessed the AI's recommendations in comparison with expert clinicians' medical decision making to ensure alignment with best practices and the standard of care. RESULTS Preliminary results indicate that the AI CDSS demonstrated high accuracy in diagnostic recommendations and decision support across various scenarios. However, certain limitations were noted, such as occasional discrepancies in handling complex or nuanced cases that required a more contextual understanding. Additionally, the tool scored higher on the diagnostic portion of the rubric, with lower scores in the therapeutic recommendations. These findings highlight the importance of continuous refinement and validation of AI tools through rigorous evaluation frameworks like the OSCE. The adaptation of OSCEs for AI tools presents several advantages, including a structured and reproducible approach to evaluation, the ability to test AI systems in diverse clinical scenarios, and the opportunity to benchmark AI performance against established clinical standards to permit charting of future progress as aerospace medicine evolves as a discipline. Remaining challenges include ensuring that these evaluations capture the full spectrum of clinical decision-making scenarios that will be confronted by CMOs during missions and adequately reflecting real-world variability of the austere spaceflight environment. CONCLUSION Employing OSCEs to evaluate AI clinical decision support tools offers a promising approach to validating their clinical utility and efficacy. This methodology not only provides insights into the tool's performance but also fosters ongoing improvement and alignment with standard of care practices. Future research should focus on refining these evaluation processes and addressing limitations to enhance the integration of AI tools in clinical spaceflight settings. REFERENCES Scott S, Hearns V, Barker MA. Testing Clinical Skills: A Look at the OSCE and USMLE Clinical Skills Exams. S D Med. 2019 Oct;72(10):451-453. Majumder MAA, Kumar A, Krishnamurthy K, Ojeh N, Adams OP, Sa B. An evaluative study of objective structured clinical examination (OSCE): students and examiners perspectives. Adv Med Educ Pract. 2019 Jun 5;10:387-397. Karam VY, Park YS, Tekian A, Youssef N. Evaluating the validity evidence of an OSCE: results from a new medical school. BMC Med Educ. 2018 Dec 20;18(1):313.

Ariana M Nelson↗

A Diffusion‐Based Uncertainty Quantification Method to Advance E3SM Land Model Calibration

Abstract Calibrating land surface models and accurately quantifying their uncertainty are crucial for improving the reliability of simulations of complex environmental processes. This, in turn, advances our predictive understanding of ecosystems and supports climate‐resilient decision‐making. Traditional calibration methods, however, face challenges of high computational costs and difficulties in accurately quantifying parameter uncertainties. To address these issues, we develop a diffusion‐based uncertainty quantification (DBUQ) method. Unlike conventional generative diffusion methods, which are computationally expensive and memory‐intensive, DBUQ innovates by formulating a parameterized generative model and approximates this model through supervised learning, which enables quick generation of parameter posterior samples to quantify its uncertainty. DBUQ is effective, efficient, and general‐purpose, making it suitable for site‐specific ecosystem model calibration and broadly applicable for parameter uncertainty quantification across various earth system models. In this study, we applied DBUQ to calibrate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model land model at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux forest site. Results indicated that DBUQ produced accurate parameter posterior distributions similar to those from Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling but with 30 times less computing time. This significant improvement in efficiency suggests that DBUQ can enable rapid, site‐level model calibration at a global scale, enhancing our predictive understanding of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗