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DOE OSTI2025

First-of-a-Kind Risk-Informed Digital Twin for Operational Decision Making

A digital twin (DT) is a digital model or a collection of models of a physical entity. DTs in the nuclear arena can be used from plant design through decommissioning. Decisions are typically a priori or made offline. Risk-informed decision making is identifying what can go wrong, its frequency, and the consequences of its failure. Ideally risk-informed decision making reflects the current state of the plant and provides a decision in real time. Traditionally, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) evaluate the failures of safety systems, the risk of core damage, and the offsite dose as the consequence. However, this DT evaluates the decisions on the control side rather than the protection side. It uses the same risk methods to probabilistically inform the decision-making process but in a different way. Rather than evaluating the risk of core damage, this DT evaluates the likelihood of avoiding a trip set point while maintaining plant safety. Performance-based assessments are identified via its probabilistic evaluation of operational alternatives based on system status. Because the purpose of the control system is to maintain system variables within prescribed operating ranges, upsets or challenges that can exceed a trip set point resulting in a plant transient and a challenge to plant mitigating systems based on actual plant conditions, are evaluated to safely maintain the plant within the operating ranges. The probabilistic portion of the model is autonomously and automatically adjusted, and the metric of interest (i.e. likelihood of avoiding a trip set point) is recalculated. The digital representation of the physical system (i.e. the DT) performs a deterministic performance–based assessment of the probabilistically identified alternatives identified to validate the probabilistic assessment. A decision-making algorithm selects the appropriate option based on the probabilistic and deterministic assessments and transmits a control signal to a component(s) to initiate a corrective action or informs an operator of its decision.

digital twin↗

NASA NTRS1992

An approach to evaluating reactive airborne wind shear systems

An approach to evaluating reactive airborne windshear detection systems was developed to support a deployment study for future FAA ground-based windshear detection systems. The deployment study methodology assesses potential future safety enhancements beyond planned capabilities. The reactive airborne systems will be an integral part of planned windshear safety enhancements. The approach to evaluating reactive airborne systems involves separate analyses for both landing and take-off scenario. The analysis estimates the probability of effective warning considering several factors including NASA energy height loss characteristics, reactive alert timing, and a probability distribution for microburst strength.

Gibson, Joseph P., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Formal Verification of a Conflict Resolution and Recovery Algorithm

New air traffic management concepts distribute the duty of traffic separation among system participants. As a consequence, these concepts have a greater dependency and rely heavily on on-board software and hardware systems. One example of a new on-board capability in a distributed air traffic management system is air traffic conflict detection and resolution (CD&R). Traditional methods for safety assessment such as human-in-the-loop simulations, testing, and flight experiments may not be sufficient for this highly distributed system as the set of possible scenarios is too large to have a reasonable coverage. This paper proposes a new method for the safety assessment of avionics systems that makes use of formal methods to drive the development of critical systems. As a case study of this approach, the mechanical veri.cation of an algorithm for air traffic conflict resolution and recovery called RR3D is presented. The RR3D algorithm uses a geometric optimization technique to provide a choice of resolution and recovery maneuvers. If the aircraft adheres to these maneuvers, they will bring the aircraft out of conflict and the aircraft will follow a conflict-free path to its original destination. Veri.cation of RR3D is carried out using the Prototype Verification System (PVS).

Maddalon, Jeffrey↗

NASA NTRS1988

Modeling of the transient ignition of a nonmetal/oxygen system by heterogeneous reaction - Effects of oxygen pressure

A theoretical model of the transient ignition of a nonmetallic polymer in a pure oxygen environment was developed and used to assess the safety of an oxygen system under elevated pressure. Results demonstrated that, for a general oxygen system, the ignition temperautre is sensitive to the external heating rate as well as such system parameters as the minimum ignition heat flux and the corresponding minimum ignition temperature. As the oxygen pressure increases, the minimum ignition temperature decreases, until, at a sufficiently high oxygen pressure, spontaneous ignition occurs. Numerical results generated by the model were correlated with the reported ignition data for polyethylene, Teflon, and nylon.

Yuen, Walter W.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic PRA-Based Estimation of PWR Coping Time Using a Surrogate Model for Accident Tolerant Fuel

In this study, we propose an interpolation-based response surface surrogate methodology to manage a large number of scenarios in dynamic probabilistic risk assessment. It adopts the shape Dynamic Time Warping algorithm to cluster the interpolation neighborhood from time series sample data. The interpolation method was adapted from Taylor Kriging to allow a reduced-order model of the Taylor series. In order to demonstrate its applicability to complex issues in risk assessment for nuclear engineering, an example risk response surface to estimate emergency core cooling system (ECCS) criteria for triplex silicon carbide (SiC) accident-tolerant fuel was constructed. The response surface was exploited to estimate the cumulative failure probability of the fuel cladding structure due to the uncertainties in operator actions and safety systems. The functional failures were assessed based on a combination of individual layer failures computed by coupling Risk Analysis Virtual Environment software with a pressurized water reactor 1000-MW(electric) RELAP5 model and the in-house fuel performance assessment module. Results showed that SiC cladding failure probability spiked less than 1 min after a large-break loss-of- coolant accident whenever the current ECCS criteria for Zircaloy-4 (Zr-4) cladding was used. However, it still provides an increased safety margin of three orders of magnitude compared to Zr-4. This positive margin could be utilized to relax active ECCS requirements by allowing deviations of up to 450 s in its actuation time. The proposed surrogate methodology generated a response surface of SiC cladding failure probability reasonably well, with a significant savings of computation time. This methodology is expected to be useful in the analysis of system response with complex uncertainty sources.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hydrogen Component Leak Rate Quantification for System Risk and Reliability Assessment through QRA and PHM Frameworks: Preprint

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Hydrogen Safety Research and Development (HSR&D) program in collaboration with the University of Maryland's Systems Risk and Reliability Analysis Laboratory (SyRRA) are working to improve reliability and reduce risk in hydrogen systems. This approach strives to use quantitative data on component leaks and failures, together with Prognosis and Health Management (PHM), and Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) to identify at-risk components, reduce component failures and downtime, and predict when components require maintenance. Hydrogen component failures increase facility maintenance cost, facility downtime, and reduce public acceptance of hydrogen technologies, ultimately increasing facility size and cost because of potentially overly conservative requirements. Leaks are a predominant failure mode for hydrogen components. However, uncertainties in the amount of hydrogen emitted from leaking components and the frequency of those failure events limit the understanding of the risks that they present under real-world operational conditions. NREL has deployed a test fixture, the Leak Rate Quantification Apparatus (LRQA), to quantify the mass flow rate of leaking gases from medium and high-pressure components that have failed while in service. Quantitative hydrogen leak rate data from this system could ultimately be used to better inform risk assessment and Regulation Codes and Standards (RCS). Parallel activity explores the use of PHM and QRA techniques to assess and reduce risk, thereby improving safety and reliability of hydrogen systems. The results of QRAs could further provide a systematic and science-based foundation for the design and implementation of RCS, as in the latest versions of the NFPA 2 code for gaseous hydrogen stations. Alternatively, data-driven techniques of PHM could provide new damage diagnosis and health-state prognosis tools. This research will help end users, station owners and operators, and regulatory bodies move towards risk-informed preventative maintenance versus emergency corrective maintenance, reducing cost and improving reliability. Predictive modelling of failures could improve safety and affect RCS requirements such as setback distances at liquid refuelling sites. The combination of leak rate quantification research, PHM, and QRA can lead to better informed models enabling data-based decision to be made for hydrogen system safety improvements.

codes and standards↗

DOE OSTI2021

Safe Operations at Roadway Junctions - Design Principles from Automated Guideway Transit

Herein this paper describes a system-level view of a fully automated transit system comprising a fleet of automated vehicles (AVs) in driverless operation, each with an SAE level 4 Automated Driving System, along with its related safety infrastructure and other system equipment. This AV system-level control is compared to the automatic train control system used in automated guideway transit technology, particularly that of communications-based train control (CBTC). Drawing from the safety principles, analysis methods, and risk assessments of CBTC systems, comparable functional subsystem definitions are proposed for AV fleets in driverless operation. With the prospect of multiple AV fleets operating within a single automated mobility district, the criticality of protecting roadway junctions requires an approach like that of automated fixed-guideway transit systems, in which a guideway switch zone "interlocking" at each junction location deconflicts railway traffic, affirming safe passage. The analogous AV protection safety subsystem is defined as fail-safe equipment that monitors roadway intersections and junctions, communicates traffic signal status, perceives and communicates alerts and signals to AV connected vehicles concerning potential unsafe conditions, and performs related primary safety functions. Conclusions are drawn that the AV protection roadway intersection functions must be performed by local roadside equipment dedicated to protecting each roadway intersection and junction. Further, it is concluded that the communications technology connecting the infrastructure with the vehicle to perform this vital, fail-safe protection should meet specific functional and performance criteria.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

ARC-100 Reactor Security-by-Design Summary

This report applies the security-by-design methodology developed in a previous National Nuclear Security Administration–sponsored work to the Advanced Reactor Concepts 100 (ARC-100) sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) design. The report contains no proprietary information specific to the ARC 100 reactor. The insights developed in this report are high-level, and generally applicable to other sodium fast reactor designs. The information presented here is the result of a qualitative safety-based analysis and would not inform any potential adversary beyond what would be found in a docketed safety analysis report. The scope of this present report covers ARC-100’s reactor core, used fuel storage, and used fuel assembly wash station. These systems are also compared to a generic SFR design assumed in the previous study. The security assessment results show changes in structures, systems, and components (SSCs) safety importance relative to the generic SFR SSCs. However, the consequence assessment results are the similar to a previously assessed generic SFR. Several SSCs have higher importance rankings than others, and it is recommended that protection efforts are prioritized for these SSCs. This work will continue in the Fiscal Year 2025 for the remaining ARC-100 systems, including cesium trap, sodium cold trap, noble gas decay tanks (dewar bottles), and used fuel dry storage facility, to provide safety-and-security-by-design insights and recommendations on non-core systems. Results from this work will furnish a technical justification for the feasibility of these solutions for the ARC reactor's design and, where applicable, identify any regulatory benefits conferred by the proactive design aspect within a risk management framework. This initiative will contribute to a more secure design of the ARC reactor and support its licensing process.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS2007

Software Safety Risk in Legacy Safety-Critical Computer Systems

Safety-critical computer systems must be engineered to meet system and software safety requirements. For legacy safety-critical computer systems, software safety requirements may not have been formally specified during development. When process-oriented software safety requirements are levied on a legacy system after the fact, where software development artifacts don't exist or are incomplete, the question becomes 'how can this be done?' The risks associated with only meeting certain software safety requirements in a legacy safety-critical computer system must be addressed should such systems be selected as candidates for reuse. This paper proposes a method for ascertaining formally, a software safety risk assessment, that provides measurements for software safety for legacy systems which may or may not have a suite of software engineering documentation that is now normally required. It relies upon the NASA Software Safety Standard, risk assessment methods based upon the Taxonomy-Based Questionnaire, and the application of reverse engineering CASE tools to produce original design documents for legacy systems.

Hill, Janice↗

NASA NTRS2017

Assessment of the State-of-the-Art of System-Wide Safety and Assurance Technologies

Since its initiation, the System-wide Safety Assurance Technologies (SSAT) Project has been focused on developing multidisciplinary tools and techniques that are verified and validated to ensure prevention of loss of property and life in NextGen and enable proactive risk management through predictive methods. To this end, four technical challenges have been listed to help realize the goals of SSAT, namely (i) assurance of flight critical systems, (ii) discovery of precursors to safety incidents, (iii) assuring safe human-systems integration, and (iv) prognostic algorithm design for safety assurance. The objective of this report is to provide an extensive survey of SSAT-related research accomplishments by researchers within and outside NASA to get an understanding of what the state-of-the-art is for technologies enabling each of the four technical challenges. We hope that this report will serve as a good resource for anyone interested in gaining an understanding of the SSAT technical challenges, and also be useful in the future for project planning and resource allocation for related research.

Roychoudhury, Indranil↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Guidance for Designing Safety into Urban Air Mobility: Hazard Analysis Techniques

The national airspace system is exceptionally safe, specifically in terms of commercial air traffic operations. The introduction of innovative aircraft (such as electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles) undergoing novel operations (such as for an urban air passenger carrying mission) is a potential disruptor to the current means of regulating and ensuring the safety of air travel. The aviation industry and associated regulatory bodies are adapting their approaches to assuring system safety to enable these new paradigms. However, any system safety analysis requires that a hazard assessment be performed. In this work, we consider the Functional Hazard Assessment (FHA) and Systems Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) techniques for hazard assessment and evaluate whether they can be used in a complementary fashion for regulatory approval purposes. We perform an FHA and an STPA on an electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicle undergoing an urban air mobility (UAM) passenger carrying reference scenario and present excerpts of this analysis. We then draw parallels between the techniques and highlight elements where they naturally reinforce to each other’s results, specifically in the consideration of hazard severity with respect to flight phases, the design of hazard mitigations, and the applicability of the results to all types of regulatory approvals (e.g., type certification, operational approval, and crew training).

Mallory S Graydon↗

DOE OSTI2023

Risk Analysis of Various Design Architectures for High Safety-significant Safety-related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems of Nuclear Power Plants during Accident Scenarios

This report documents the plus-up activities performed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during Fiscal Year (FY) 2022 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) risk assessment project. In FY 2019, the RISA Pathway initiated a project to develop a risk assessment strategy for delivering a strong technical basis to support effective, licensable, and secure DI&C technologies for digital upgrades/designs. An integrated risk assessment technology for the DI&C systems was proposed for this strategy, which aims to (1) provide a best-estimate, risk-informed capability to quantitatively and accurately estimate the safety margin obtained from plant modernization, especially for the high safety-significant safety-related (HSSSR) DI&C systems, (2) support and supplement existing advanced risk-informed DI&C design guides by providing quantitative risk information and evidence, (3) offer a capability of design architecture evaluation of various DI&C systems to support system design decisions and diversity and redundancy applications, (4) assure the long-term safety and reliability of HSSSR DI&C systems, and (5) reduce uncertainty in costs and support integration of DI&C systems in the plant. To achieve these technical goals and deal with the expensive licensing justifications from regulatory insights, the LWRS-developed framework instructs nuclear vendors and utilities on how to effectively lower the costs associated with digital compliance and speed industry advances by: (1) defining an integrated risk-informed analysis process for DI&C upgrade, including hazard analysis, reliability analysis, and consequence analysis, (2) applying systematic and risk-informed tools to address common cause failures (CCFs) and quantify corresponding failure probabilities for DI&C technologies, particularly software CCFs, (3) evaluating the impact of digital failures at the component level, system level, and plant level, and (4) providing insights and suggestions on designs to manage the risks, thus to support the development, licensing, and deployment of advanced DI&C technologies on nuclear power plant (NPPs). Adding diversity within system or components is the main means to eliminate and mitigate CCFs, but diversity also increases plant complexity and errors and may not address all sources of systematic failures. How to optimize the diversity and redundancy applications for the safety-critical DI&C systems remains a challenge. To deal with the technical issues in addressing potential software CCFs in HSSSR DI&C systems of NPPs and supporting relevant design optimization, the framework provides: ? An integrated best-estimate, risk-informed capability to address new technical digital issues quantitatively, accurately, and efficiently in plan modernization progress, such as software CCFs in HSSSR DI&C systems of NPPs ? A common and a modularized platform for DI&C designers, software developers, cybersecurity analysts, and plant engineers to efficiently predict and prevent risk in the early design stage of DI&C systems ? Technical bases and risk-informed insights to assist U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and industry to address and fulfill the risk-informed alternatives for evaluation of CCFs in HSSSR DI&C systems of NPPs ? An integrated risk-informed tool that offers a capability of design architecture evaluation of various DI&C systems to support system design decisions in diversity and redundancy applications. The plus-up research and development efforts of this project in FY 2022 are focused on methodology improvement of software CCF modeling and estimation, prevention analysis, importance analysis and risk analysis of various design architectures of HSSSR DI&C systems. This work greatly enhances the capability of the LWRS-developed framework for the risk assessment and design optimization of safety-critical DI&C systems. It should be noted that all the analyses are performed for the demonstration of the LWRS-developed framework, not for the evaluation of relevant systems. Results are obtained based on very limited design information and testing data.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2015

The SMART-NAS Testbed

The SMART-NAS Testbed for Safe Trajectory Based Operations Project will deliver an evaluation capability, critical to the ATM community, allowing full NextGen and beyond-NextGen concepts to be assessed and developed. To meet this objective a strong focus will be placed on concept integration and validation to enable a gate-to-gate trajectory-based system capability that satisfies a full vision for NextGen. The SMART-NAS for Safe TBO Project consists of six sub-projects. Three of the sub-projects are focused on exploring and developing technologies, concepts and models for evolving and transforming air traffic management operations in the ATM+2 time horizon, while the remaining three sub-projects are focused on developing the tools and capabilities needed for testing these advanced concepts. Function Allocation, Networked Air Traffic Management and Trajectory Based Operations are developing concepts and models. SMART-NAS Test-bed, System Assurance Technologies and Real-time Safety Modeling are developing the tools and capabilities to test these concepts. Simulation and modeling capabilities will include the ability to assess multiple operational scenarios of the national airspace system, accept data feeds, allowing shadowing of actual operations in either real-time, fast-time and/or hybrid modes of operations in distributed environments, and enable integrated examinations of concepts, algorithms, technologies, and NAS architectures. An important focus within this project is to enable the development of a real-time, system-wide safety assurance system. The basis of such a system is a continuum of information acquisition, analysis, and assessment that enables awareness and corrective action to detect and mitigate potential threats to continuous system-wide safety at all levels. This process, which currently can only be done post operations, will be driven towards "real-time" assessments in the 2035 time frame.

Trajectory Based Operations↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing the Use of UAS-Related Terms in ASRS Using Seed Topic Modeling

Context: The NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) is a voluntary confidential system that disseminates reports received from personnel involved in aviation operations after de-identifying them. These reports are used by the community to improve overall aviation system safety. Aim: We propose and execute an experiment to assess the use of seed term topic modeling over the database narratives to identify Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) reports. The use of seed term topic modeling enables users to identify groups of conceptually similar narratives associated to a topic of their interest. Method: We use a collection of narratives, expert-selected words, and report metadata that separates UAS from non-UAS reports to assess if seed topic modeling can be used to improve ASRS searches. Results: For simpler queries, seed topic search observes a higher recall and lower precision than the existing DBOL (DataBase OnLine) search in operation. However, the best results are obtained when seed topic search is used as a search suggestion system to be executed on the DBOL. Conclusion: Utilizing a combination of both the existing method and the proposed method, users can expand their search vocabulary about subjects of interest while improving the quality of results.

Text Mining↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing the Use of UAS-Related Terms in ASRS using Seeds for Topic Modeling

LDA↗

NASA NTRS1993

Babcock and Wilcox assessment of the Pratt and Whitney XNR2000

Babcock & Wilcox performed four subtasks related to the assessment of the Pratt & Whitney XNR2000 nuclear reactor as follows: (1) cermet fuel element fabricability assessment; (2) mechanical design review of the reactor system; (3) neutronic analysis review; and (4) safety assessment. The results of the mechanical and physics reviews have been integrated into the reactor design. The results of the fuel and safety assessments are presented.

Westerman, Kurt O.↗

DOE OSTI2024

GDSA Framework Development and Process Model Integration FY2024

The Disposal Research & Development (Disposal R&D) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Office of Spent Fuel & High-Level Waste Disposition is conducting research and development (R&D) on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level nuclear waste (HLW). A high priority for Disposal R&D is disposal system modeling (Sassani et al. 2023). The Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) work package is charged with developing a disposal system modeling and analysis capability for evaluating generic disposal system performance for nuclear waste in geologic media.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Benchmarking Framework for Evaluating Large Language Model Capabilities in Nuclear Reactor Safety Applications

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly capable of answering technical questions, synthesizing domain knowledge, and supporting engineering workflows. For nuclear science and engineering, these capabilities require careful, domain-specific evaluation before they can be credibly incorporated into safety-related activities, regulatory review, or technical decision support. This paper presents preliminary results from benchmarking framework for evaluating LLM capabilities in nuclear contexts. The framework is organized into three evaluation categories: nuclear fundamentals, general dual-use knowledge, and plant specific knowledge. These categories are intended to distinguish general nuclear engineering competence from broader technical reasoning and more context-dependent nuclear knowledge. Initial evaluations focus on nuclear fundamentals using questions representative of the knowledge expected of a nuclear professional engineer. Results indicate that contemporary frontier models perform at a high level and substantially exceed the performance of older model generations, with some models approaching saturation of the current benchmark. These findings suggest both the rapid improvement of LLM capabilities in specialized technical domains and the need for more discriminating evaluation methods. The paper presents the benchmark structure, preliminary model-comparison results, and ongoing work. This work supports development of verifiable, responsible, and safety-conscious methods for assessing AI systems in nuclear engineering applications.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗