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DOE OSTI2026

SAVY-4000 Finite-Element Drop Test Analysis

PFE Auxiliary Systems conducted drop testing on SAVY-4000 containers to evaluate structural response under 12-foot drop conditions. In support of that effort, a finite-element modeling capability was developed to simulate drop response across multiple container sizes and impact orientations. The purpose of this work was to provide a consistent analysis framework that could support interpretation of testing, compare response trends across multiple configurations, and generate quantities of interest for later comparison with experimental data. More broadly, the analysis and testing were intended to assess whether the containers continued to perform their primary function after a 12-foot drop, namely maintaining structural integrity and containment of the contents. The modeling approach combined an implicit preload analysis with an explicit drop simulation so that each drop event began from a mechanically realistic assembled condition, including compression of the silicone O-ring. Separate models were developed for 2-quart, 5-quart, 12-quart, and 10-gallon containers. The results were evaluated in terms of strain-gauge response, collar-lid gap behavior, and accumulated plastic strain. In addition, parametric studies were performed on the 2-quart container to assess sensitivity to O-ring stiffness, friction, canister thickness, geometry tolerance, and mesh density. The simulations showed that predicted drop responses depended strongly on both container size and drop orientation. Gap metrics identified cases in which the predicted collar-lid opening exceeded the nominal O-ring cross-section threshold, while plastic strain metrics identified localized regions of elevated permanent deformation. Parametric studies showed that the predicted response was especially sensitive to the assumed O-ring stiffness and contact friction, while the geometry tolerance study produced smaller changes in the cases examined. The main value of this work was that it established a repeatable modeling and simulation workflow to support drop-test implementation, evaluate effects of future configuration changes, and understand modeling assumptions that most influenced predicted response. At the current stage, the results were viewed as preliminary model predictions rather than validated predictions. The next step would be to compare drop-test data to the model so that predictive values of the workflow could be refined and used with greater confidence to assess whether the containers maintained structural integrity and containment of the contents after a 12-foot drop.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of Liquids Using the Submerged Plasma for Isotopic Detection and Elemental Resolution (SPIDER)

We developed a sensor called the Submerged Plasma for Isotopic Detection and Elemental Resolution (SPIDER) probe, which uses an atmospheric pressure glow discharge below the surface of liquids to excite species in the liquid. Through emission spectroscopy of molten salts, liquid metals, and heavy water, we demonstrated the SPIDER probe’s high resolution, accuracy, and versatility. We successfully identified trace concentrations of transition and rare-earth metals in molten salts and detected the isotopic shift of the H β → D β emission line. Our analysis revealed unconventional spectral alkali line shapes, indicating two competing excitation modes: film explosion and droplet vaporization. The film explosion mode, characterized by dense plasma, exhibited self-reversal and broadband continuum emission, while the droplet vaporization mode, associated with diffusive plasma, produced narrow-line emissions. Furthermore, by analyzing circuit transients alongside individual plasma events, we observed that film explosions generate higher currents, likely due to a shorter plasma length as the current preferentially flows through the thin liquid layer. Altogether, our results highlight the SPIDER probe’s efficacy and flexibility, making it well-suited for online material quantification of liquids in extreme environments.

AES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Advanced-Research-on-Integrated-Energy-Systems-Based Analysis to Support Resilient System Upgrades: Energy to Communities Energyshed In-Depth Partnership with Molokai, Hawaii

The Molokai, Hawaii, Energy to Communities (E2C) Energyshed project represents a collaborative effort between the National Laboratory of the Rockies, Shake Energy Collaborative, the Molokai Clean Energy Hui, Sustainable Molokai, and Ho'ahu Energy Cooperative Molokai to advance Molokai's Community Energy Resilience Action Plan (CERAP). Supported by Hawaiian Electric Company and the Hawaii State Energy Office, the initiative aims to develop a community-defined portfolio of renewable energy solutions that enhance energy resilience while aligning with the Hawaiian Electric Integrated Grid Plan (IGP) and Molokai's energy goals. Phase 1 focused on technical analyses and community engagement to co-design feasible energy scenarios. Challenges such as grid upgrades, storage sizing, and inverter ride-through standards were addressed to align technical and operational requirements with community preferences. The project equips Molokai with actionable data and insights to implement energy initiatives while ensuring resilient and culturally informed solutions. Future efforts aim to finalize project designs, secure interconnection agreements, and deploy energy projects that reflect community priorities and technical feasibility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Sensitivity Analysis of Numerical Modeling Input Parameters on Wind Turbine Loads in Deterministic Transient Load Cases

Aero-hydro-elastic-servo numerical models used to design and analyze wind turbines are based on thousands of variable input parameters that dictate the inflow, aerodynamic, structural, and control characteristics of the system as well as sea state, hydrodynamic, and mooring characteristics for fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind turbines. Each of these parameters has some level of uncertainty, which can significantly impact the predicted loads. Understanding the uncertainty in the inputs is critical to understanding the uncertainty in the outputs. This work demonstrates a screening technique to identify which parameters ultimate loads are most sensitive to so that more focus can be given to quantifying the possible range of those parameters. This technique has been demonstrated previously for different turbine and load case types and is extended here for a floating offshore wind turbine in design load cases with transient events both in the inflow and operations. Each load case features a deterministic gust, including variations in wind speed, direction, and shear. Load cases are considered with an operating turbine as well as with prescribed fault, startup, and shutdown procedures. The study found that key input parameters with a large impact on loads include the length of the gust, the magnitude of direction change and speed in the gust, the initial wind speed, and the shape of the gust profile.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2027

A multi-region approach for the analysis of porous materials and gas-solid reactions using USAXS-SAXS-WAXS: application to CaO carbonation

The reaction rate of gas-solid non-catalytic reactions is typically investigated using reactant conversion data over time and ex-situ measurements of the porous solid reactant textural properties; these data enable the experimental estimation of the initial intrinsic reaction rate, whereas the evolution of the textural properties and the reaction rate over time are evaluated theoretically using reaction models. In this work, a different methodology is presented, based on: a) in-situ time-resolved USAXS-SAXS-WAXS measurements of the solid sample, and b) a multi-region modeling approach; this methodology allows for the estimation of the textural properties and the intrinsic reaction rate at any time during the reaction. Referring to a reaction in which a solid product is obtained from a solid reactant and a gaseous reactant, the porous particle is described as consisting of several distinct regions with different microstructural properties, and both a gas-solid reaction model and a SAXS model are derived and applied to the carbonation of porous CaO. The proposed reaction model highlights the role of the inaccessible reactant and accurately predicts the solid reactant conversion versus time profile. The SAXS model accurately predicts the measured linear trends of the Porod invariant and of the pre-factor of the power law scattering profile versus CaO mass fraction; in the absence of chemical reactions, the proposed equations extend classical SAXS theory to porous materials containing macropores and nonporous solid phases in addition to standard nanoscale inhomogeneous regions.

CO2 solid sorbents↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-Temperature SiC Cladding End Plug Irradiation Design and HFIR Readiness

This report documents the design of a High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) irradiation experiment intended to evaluate irradiation effects on the hermeticity of silicon carbide (SiC) end plug specimens under a radial fast neutron flux gradient at representative light-water reactor (LWR) temperatures of approximately 300 °C. The overarching goal of this work is to statistically evaluate SiC end plug hermeticity and mechanical properties following irradiation using the high-throughput irradiation capability discussed here. Each specimen consists of a short section of SiC fiber–reinforced SiC (SiC/SiC) tube with a single monolithic SiC end plug joined to one end. The experiment allows up to 66 specimens to be irradiated in six different stacks within a dry, sealed irradiation capsule derived from the previously developed high-temperature SiC/SiC cladding bowing experiment. The neutronics basis, thermal analysis, and HFIR readiness of the experiment are discussed in this report for two possible design cases. The first design case is based on existing approval documentation and components that are on hand and approved for use, so the experiment insertion would require only specimen receipt, specimen pre-irradiation characterization, experiment assembly, and final fabrication package approval. The second design case provides improved thermal robustness and the preferred end plug geometry but requires fabrication of a modified holder and revisions to the HFIR approval documentation, in addition to the other activities required for the first design case, before insertion.

Hott, Daniel [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Analysis of an irradiated uranium sample for source attribution without chemical separation using microplasma ionization and ultrahigh resolution mass spectrometry

The use of element isotope ratios has great potential in not only determining the reactor type used to produce plutonium (Pu) but also in determining the burnup and the time since irradiation. While a powerful nuclear forensic technique, determining element isotope ratios is complicated by severe isobaric interferences when performed on typical inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometers. Such analyses require extensive chemical separations prior to analysis to alleviate the inter-elemental isobars. Ultrahigh mass resolution spectrometry provides a potential alternative, greatly reducing the complexity of sample preparation and turnaround times for these critical measurements. To demonstrate the power of the approach, a sample of irradiated, depleted uranium was analyzed with the liquid sampling—atmospheric pressure glow discharge ion source coupled to an Orbitrap mass spectrometer. The Orbitrap is augmented with an external data acquisition system, Spectroswiss’s FTMS-Booster X2T, allowing collection of extended ion transients, providing higher mass resolution. In using this approach, the 150 Sm/ 149 Sm and 152 Sm/ 149 Sm isotope ratios were found to be within 20% of predicted values without any chemical separations and without mass bias corrections. In addition, the 240 Pu/ 239 Pu isotope ratio was determined, free from the 238 UH + interferences common to the ICP-MS platforms, while at the same time allowing for the determination of U isotopic signatures. While these demonstrative results are from a single sample, the advantages of the microplasma/ultrahigh mass resolution approach to intra-element isotope ratio determinations are clear.

Fuel burnup↗

DOE OSTI2026

Single particle – MC-ICP-MS for isotopic analysis of uranium particles

Single particle – multi-collector – inductively coupled plasma – mass spectrometry (SP-MC-ICP-MS) was employed to measure a suspension of 1 µm U3O8 particles (∼1.3 pg total U/particle) to determine their individual isotopic compositions of 234U/238U, 235U/238U, and 236U/238U. The effects of different detector combinations for 235U and 238U, including secondary electron multipliers (SEM) and Faraday detectors (1011 and 1013 Ω amplifiers), were explored for accuracy and precision optimization on the observed 235U/238U. The minor isotopic ratios (i.e., 234U/238U and 236U/238U) were analyzed such that the 234U and 236U were monitored on SEM detectors and the 238U was monitored on a Faraday (1011 Ω) detector. Various integration times (5, 10, 25, and 50 ms) were investigated in all detector configurations to gain a better understanding of their impact on sensitivity, accuracy, and precision. For 235U/238U ratios of 1 µm U3O8 particles, a dual Faraday detector measurement with 1011 Ω was the optimal choice; measurement of 1021 particles yielded an average 235U/238U ratio of 0.00170 (14), a −1.8% relative difference (% RD) from the reference value. The minor isotopic compositions were determined to be 0.0000070 (14) and 0.0000758 (48) for the 234U/238U and 236U/238U, respectively. These measurements correspond to <8% and <1% RD from their reference value for the 234U/238U and 236U/238U, respectively. SP-MC-ICP-MS was also able to provide insight into measurement sensitivity. In these individual particles, merely 15 and 165 atto-grams (ag) of 234U and 236U were present (calculated). Initial limits of detection for SP-MC-ICP-MS were determined to be ∼1.0 ag (when measured via SEM detectors). This valuable approach is applicable to areas including nuclear forensics, nuclear safeguards, and geochemical analysis, which require high-precision measurements of uranium within micron-sized particles.

Manard, Benjamin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000207400627)↗

DOE OSTI1996

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 37, No. 2, April-June 1996]

Nuclear Safety is a journal that covers significant issues in the field of nuclear safety. Its primary scope is safety in the design, construction, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power reactors worldwide and the research and analysis activities that promote this goal, but it also encompasses the safety aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing and handling, and nuclear waste disposal, the handling of fissionable materials and radioisotopes, and the environmental effects of all these activities. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 97 The Nuclear Community and the Public: Cognitive and Cultural Influences on Thinking About Nuclear Risk, M. A. Meyer; 109 Twenty-Third Water Reactor Safety Information Meeting, D. A. Copinger; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 126 Analysis of a PWR LBLOCA Without SCRAM, Trevor N. Tyler, Rafael Macian-Juan and John H. Mahaffy; DESIGN FEATURES: 139 Vulnerability of Multiple-Barrier Systems, N. C. Lind; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 149 A Study of Wet Catalytic Oxidation of Radioactive Spent Ion Exchange Resin by Hydrogen Peroxide, Xingchao Jian, Tianbao Wu, and Guichun Yun; 157 A Comparison Study and Resolution of Differences Between Emergency Response and Safety Analysis Codes Used at the Savannah River Site, A. A. Simpkins; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 164 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 167 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 172 Proposed Rule Changes as of Dec. 31,1995; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 178 American Nuclear Society 1997 Annual Meeting; 178 American Nuclear Society Nuclear Criticality and Safety Division Topical Meeting; 176 The Authors.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Tutorial on Bayesian analysis of linear shock compression data

Gas gun and other shock compression experiments often produce shock wave velocity measurements that are linearly associated with particle velocity. Traditionally, this empirical relationship is quantified with a single Hugoniot curve that is estimated using least squares regression. However, for downstream modeling and simulation tasks, it is often more useful to have multiple Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane that are consistent with the data. We employ Bayesian uncertainty quantification methods as a framework for propagating measurement uncertainty through to model parameters and predictions. Specifically, this Tutorial shows how to sample multiple Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane that are consistent with the shock wave-particle velocity measurements in a two-step Bayesian approach. First, we obtain an analytical expression for the posterior distribution of the linear model parameters using Bayesian linear regression. Second, we propagate samples from the posterior distribution through the Rankine–Hugoniot equations to yield Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane. The procedure is demonstrated with publicly available data on argon, copper, and nickel, and compared against bootstrapping and linear regression. The Bayesian procedure is shown to be interpretable, computationally inexpensive, and less sensitive than an alternative bootstrapping approach to the removal of the point in the copper dataset that has the largest particle velocity. As a Tutorial on Bayesian methodology for the shock compression community, we provide several derivations and explanations that make this paper self-contained, and make all code and data available at github.com/llnl/BALSCD.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI1996

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 37, No. 2, April-June 1996]

05 NUCLEAR FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Proteome-wide analysis of protein stability in Escherichia coli under acid stress

Knowledge of protein acid sensitivity remains sparse and is largely derived from low-throughput, enzyme-specific assays. We used a scalable framework to map acid stability across the Escherichia coli proteome to assess the acid stability of 1,675 unique proteins, estimating pH 50 values for over 90% of them. The parameter pH50 was defined as the pH value at which only 50% of the initial protein remains in solution following acid treatment. Proteome-wide pH 50 values ranged from 2.28 to 6.33 (median 5.11). Approximately 9% of detected proteins remained stable across all tested pH conditions. Our results align with published data and the assay of citrate synthase (GltA) performed here. Protein acid stability differed significantly by subcellular localization: periplasmic proteins were relatively more abundant in the acid-stable group, cytoplasmic proteins were abundant at pH 50 values 4.5–5.5, and inner membrane proteins at higher pH 50 between 5.5 and 6.0. Outer membrane proteins were too few to draw strong conclusions regarding enrichment within specific pH 50 groups. Notably, the periplasmic binding protein of the molybdate ABC transporter (ModA), was enriched after incubation at low pH. Estimated pH 50 values showed no correlation with protein isoelectric point and molecular weight. Together, this work provides the first proteome-wide map of protein acid stability and establishes a general framework for studying different chemical stressors.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Toward an AI-Powered Software Pipeline for Real-Time Tracking and Analysis of Wildfire and Smoke

Real-time tracking of wildfires and smoke is crucial for effective response, minimizing damage, protecting lives, and efficiently managing resources during fire emergencies. We develop a web-based AI-powered pipeline that detects wildfires in aerial video and estimates deployment-relevant behavior metrics, including cumulative burned area, burned-area growth rate, fire spread direction, and smoke dispersion. The system combines a YOLO-based detector with YCbCr-based fire segmentation, HSV-based smoke segmentation, Farneback optical flow, and centroid-based spatiotemporal tracking. Using ground sampling distance (GSD), pixel-level fire masks are converted to physical burned-area measurements by correlating fire pixel counts with camera altitude and tilt angle. We benchmark YOLO variants and non-YOLO baselines (GoogLeNet, CNN, DBN, Autoencoder, U-Net, and AlexNet) on the IEEE FLAME dataset and a newly created aerial frame dataset, Wildfire-DB. Cross-dataset evaluation uses a strict threshold-transfer protocol: decision thresholds are selected on FLAME validation and transferred unchanged to Wildfire-DB to quantify generalization under domain shift. YOLOv6 achieves the strongest cross-dataset frame-level fire detection on Wildfire-DB (ROC-AUC 0.8200, PR-AUC 0.8044, and transferred-threshold F1 0.7596). For tracking-oriented deployment requiring oriented localization, YOLO11-OBB provides the most reliable cross-dataset behavior among OBB-capable models while remaining computationally feasible. To analyze the feasibility of UAV deployment, we further measure inference efficiency using synchronized GPU and CPU power logs on a fixed workload of 1569 frames. YOLO-family models process the video in 5.73–12.47 seconds with net energy of 1247.28–1775.39 J, substantially lower latency and energy than heavier classification and reconstruction baselines. Overall, model optimality depends on operational objectives: YOLOv6 is best for cross-dataset detection robustness, whereas YOL...

Color segmentation↗

DOE OSTI2026

NanoPSD: A software for automatic detection of Nano-Particle Shape Distribution in electron microscopy images

Accurate quantification of the size and morphology of nanoparticles from electron microscopy (EM) images is essential to understand growth mechanisms, surface reactivity, and functional behavior in nanoscale materials. Manual analysis remains slow, subjective, and difficult to reproduce in large datasets. We introduce NanoPSD (Nano-Particle Shape Distribution), an open-source and fully automated framework for quantitative particle detection and morphology analysis from EM images. NanoPSD integrates adaptive contrast enhancement, polarity-agnostic scale-bar detection, Optical Character Recognition (OCR)-based calibration, and classical segmentation via Otsu thresholding with morphological refinement. Particle contours are used to extract geometric descriptors, including equivalent circular diameter, aspect ratio, circularity, and solidity, enabling automated classification into spherical, rod-like, and aggregate morphologies. The framework supports both single-image and batch processing, generating publication-quality visualizations, LaTeX-ready tables, and structured comma-separated values (CSV) datasets. As a demonstration, we applied NanoPSD to plasma-synthesized nanoparticle samples diagnosed via transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The code produced statistically robust size and morphology distributions spanning a few to tens of nanometers with minimal user supervision. The pipeline demonstrates high reproducibility and scalability, processing large image collections with consistent calibration and output formatting. Its modular design enables seamless integration of future deep-learning-based segmentation models, providing a pathway toward intelligent, data-driven electron microscopy analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Unconventional solitonic high-temperature superfluorescence from perovskites

Fast thermal dephasing limits macroscopic quantum phenomena to cryogenic conditions and hinders their use at ambient temperatures. For electronic excitations in condensed media, dephasing is mediated by thermal lattice motion. Therefore, taming the lattice influence is essential for creating collective electronic quantum states at high temperatures. Although there are occasional reports of high-T c quantum effects across different platforms, it is unclear which lattice characteristics and electron–lattice interactions lead to macroscopically coherent electronic states in solids. Here we studied intensity fluctuations in the macroscopic polarization during the emergence of superfluorescence in a lead halide perovskite and showed that spontaneously synchronized polaronic lattice oscillations accompany collective electronic dipole emission. We further developed an effective field model and theoretically confirmed that exciton–lattice interactions lead to a new electronically and structurally entangled coherent extended solitonic state beyond a critical polaron density. The analysis shows a phase transition with two processes happening in tandem: incoherent disordered polaronic lattice deformations establish an order, while macroscopic quantum coherence among excitons simultaneously emerges. Recombination of excitons in this state culminates in superfluorescence at high temperatures. Our study establishes fundamental connections between the transient superfluorescence process observed after the impulsive excitation of perovskites and general equilibrium phase transitions achieved by thermal cooling. By identifying various electron–lattice interactions in the perovskite structure and their respective role in creating collectively coherent electronic effects in solids, our work provides unprecedented insight into the design and development of new materials that exhibit high-temperature macroscopic quantum phenomena.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Distinct anharmonic characteristics of phonon-driven lattice thermal conductivity and thermal expansion in bulk MoSe 2 and WSe 2

Machine-learning molecular dynamics simulations pave the way to completely treat the anharmonicity of phonons. Low-energy anharmonic modes in transition-metal dichalcogenides drive the thermal and transport properties.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2026

Value of Geothermal Energy Storage for Supply-Side and Demand-Side Applications

This report presents the results of a study examining the value potential for geothermal energy storage (GES), a long-duration energy storage resource that stores thermal and/or geomechanical energy in the subsurface. GES could benefit the overall U.S. power system by temporally shifting electricity generation (supply-side) or meeting building heating and cooling load (demand-side). This report analyzes supply-side and demand-side opportunities independently because of differences in applications and models. Currently there is significant uncertainty about the development costs for GES, with only a limited number of demonstration plants for electric energy storage and building heating and cooling storage developments. In this report, we estimate the value of supply-side and demand-side GES to the bulk power system in the contiguous United States. Because of the significant uncertainty about GES development costs, this analysis does not consider GES deployment costs but instead focuses on the value of GES to the U.S. electricity system. The estimated values of GES provide reference points for economically competitive commercial cost targets. Supply-side GES is modeled as part of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) generation plant in NREL's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model (Ho et al. 2021). In contrast to conventional geothermal plants, which generate constant power, EGS plants have unique features that may allow for in-reservoir energy storage for flexible generation. Demand-side GES for heating and cooling, including seasonal hot and cold storage and short-duration heat pump storage, is incorporated into a price-taker model using Cambium electricity marginal cost projections. To establish an upper bound for the value of GES, analysis focused on favorable scenarios for storage with high generation from zero marginal cost, variable renewable energy resources. High penetrations of variable renewable energy generation can increase hourly electricity price variability, which increases the value of temporal energy arbitrage for storage technologies like GES.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗