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At least 109 records · Page 6

Droplet Entrainment in Steam Supply System of Water-Cooled Small Modular Reactors: Experiment and Modeling Approaches

Droplet entrainment in steam-flow is a prominent phenomenon that needs adequate safety and risk analysis of postulated transient and accident scenarios—including experimental investigation and representative modeling and simulation (M&S)—for small modular reactor (SMR) system design and demonstration. This study identifies knowledge gaps by evaluating experimental and computational fluid dynamics modeling approaches to support early-stage reactor system design, testing, and model evaluation. Previous studies reported in the literature for steam-flow entrainment primarily focused on gigawatt capacity pressurized water reactor (PWR) systems. However, entrainment phenomena are even more prominent for PWR-type SMRs due to their more compact integrated designs, which need further research and development. To fill the research gaps, this study provides insight by specifying the phenomena of interest by leveraging the lessons learned from past research, adopting advanced M&S techniques and advanced instrumentation and control. The findings and recommendations are applicable for evaluating steam-flow entrainment models and for designing integral effect test and separate effect test facilities for gaining reactor design approvals.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Streamer Evaporation

Evaporation is the consequence of slow plasma heating near the tops of streamers where the plasma is only weakly contained by the magnetic field. The form it takes is the slow opening of field lines at the top of the streamer and transient formation of new solar wind. It was discovered in polytropic model calculations, where due to the absence of other energy loss mechanisms in magnetostatic streamers, its ultimate endpoint is the complete evaporation of the streamer. This takes, for plausible heating rates, weeks to months in these models. Of course streamers do not behave this way, for more than one reason. One is that there are losses due to thermal conduction to the base of the streamer and radiation from the transition region. Another is that streamer heating must have a characteristic time constant and depend on the ambient physical conditions. We use our global Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model with thermal conduction to examine a few examples of the effect of changing the heating scale height and of making ad hoc choices for how the heating depends on ambient conditions. At the same time, we apply and extend the analytic model of streamers, which showed that streamers will be unable to contain plasma for temperatures near the cusp greater than about 2xl0(exp 6) K. Slow solar wind is observed to come from streamers through transient releases. A scenario for this that is consistent with the above physical process is that heating increases the near-cusp temperature until field lines there are forced open. The subsequent evacuation of the flux tubes by the newly forming slow wind decreases the temperature and heating until the flux tubes are able to reclose. Then, over a longer time scale, heating begins to again refill the flux tubes with plasma and increase the temperature until the cycle repeats itself. The calculations we report here are first steps towards quantitative evaluation of this scenario.

Suess, Steven T.↗

Spacesuit Portable Life Support System Breadboard (PLSS 1.0) Development and Test Results

A multi-year effort has been carried out at NASA-JSC to develop an advanced Extravehicular Activity (EVA) PLSS design intended to further the current state of the art by increasing operational flexibility, reducing consumables, and increasing robustness. Previous efforts have focused on modeling and analyzing the advanced PLSS architecture, as well as developing key enabling technologies. Like the current International Space Station (ISS) Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) PLSS, the advanced PLSS comprises of three subsystems required to sustain the crew during EVA including the Thermal, Ventilation, and Oxygen Subsystems. This multi-year effort has culminated in the construction and operation of PLSS 1.0, a test rig that simulates full functionality of the advanced PLSS design. PLSS 1.0 integrates commercial off the shelf hardware with prototype technology development components, including the primary and secondary oxygen regulators, ventilation loop fan, Rapid Cycle Amine (RCA) swingbed, and Spacesuit Water Membrane Evaporator (SWME). Testing accumulated 239 hours over 45 days, while executing 172 test points. Specific PLSS 1.0 test objectives assessed during this testing include: confirming key individual components perform in a system level test as they have performed during component level testing; identifying unexpected system-level interactions; operating PLSS 1.0 in nominal steady-state EVA modes to baseline subsystem performance with respect to metabolic rate, ventilation loop pressure and flow rate, and environmental conditions; simulating nominal transient EVA operational scenarios; simulating contingency EVA operational scenarios; and further evaluating individual technology development components. Successful testing of the PLSS 1.0 provided a large database of test results that characterize system level and component performance. With the exception of several minor anomalies, the PLSS 1.0 test rig performed as expected; furthermore, many system responses trended in accordance with pre-test predictions.

Vogel, Matt R.↗

Spacesuit Portable Life Support System Breadboard (PLSS 1.0) Development and Test Results

A multi-year effort has been carried out at the Johnson Space Center to develop an advanced EVA PLSS design intended to further the current state of the art by increasing operational flexibility, reducing consumables, and increasing robustness. This multi-year effort has culminated in the construction and operation of PLSS 1.0, a test rig that simulates full functionality of the advanced PLSS design. PLSS 1.0 integrates commercial off-the-shelf hardware with prototype technology development components, including the primary and secondary oxygen regulators, ventilation loop fan, Rapid Cycle Amine (RCA) swingbed, and Spacesuit Water Membrane Evaporator (SWME). PLSS 1.0 was tested from June 17th through September 30th, 2011. Testing accumulated 233 hours over 45 days, while executing 119 test points. An additional 164 hours of operational time were accrued during the test series, bringing the total operational time for PLSS 1.0 testing to 397 hours. Specific PLSS 1.0 test objectives assessed during this testing include: (1) Confirming prototype components perform in a system level test as they have performed during component level testing, (2) Identifying unexpected system-level interactions (3) Operating PLSS 1.0 in nominal steady-state EVA modes to baseline subsystem performance with respect to metabolic rate, ventilation loop pressure and flow rate, and environmental conditions (4) Simulating nominal transient EVA operational scenarios (5) Simulating contingency EVA operational scenarios (6) Further evaluating prototype technology development components Successful testing of the PLSS 1.0 provided a large database of test results that characterize system level and component performance. With the exception of several minor anomalies, the PLSS 1.0 test rig performed as expected. Documented anomalies and observations include: (1) Ventilation loop fan controller issues at high fan speeds (near 70,000 rpm, whereas the fan speed during nominal operations would be closer to 35,000 rpm) (2) RCA performance at boundary conditions, including carbon dioxide and water vapor saturation events, as well as reduced vacuum quality (3) SWME valve anomalies (4 documented cases where the SWME failed to respond to a control signal or physically jammed, preventing SWME control) (4) Reduction of SWME hollow fiber hydrophobicity and significant reduction of the SWME degassing capability after significant accumulated test time.

Watts, Carly A.↗

Disruptive neoclassical tearing mode seeding in DIII-D with implications for ITER

New studies identify the critical parameters and physics governing disruptive neoclassical tearing mode (NTM) onset. An m/n = 2/1 mode in DIII-D that begins to grow robustly after a seeding event (edge localized mode ELM or sawtooth precursor and crash) causes the mode rotation to drop close to the plasma's Er = 0 rest frame; this condition opens the stabilizing ion-polarization current 'gate' and destabilizes an otherwise marginally stable NTM. Our new experimental and theoretical insights and novel toroidal theory-based modeling are benchmarked and scalable to ITER and other future experiments. Here, the nominal ITER rotation at q = 2 is found to be stabilizing ('gate closed') except for MHD-induced transients that could 'open the gate'. Extrapolating from the DIII-D ITER baseline scenario (IBS) discharges, MHD transients are much more likely to destabilize problematic robustly growing 2/1 NTMs in ITER; this makes predictions of seeding and control of both ELMs and sawteeth imperative for more than just minimizing divertor pulsed-heat loading.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Failure Behavior and Control-Based Mitigation for a Parallel Hybrid Propulsion System

NASA is pursuing research to advance Electrified Aircraft Propulsion (EAP) technologies that address fuel burn and emission reduction goals. EAP brings the potential for improved performance over the state of the art. However, for these systems to be practical and certifiable, they need to possess adequate robustness to adverse conditions including a variety of system failures that are not applicable to conventional turbofans today. Numerous EAP concepts interface gas turbine engines with an electrical power system that includes electric machines and sometimes electrical energy storage. The expansion of the powertrain increases the probability of encountering a failure and introduces new failure modes. Failures within the electrical power system may also impact the gas turbine engine(s) to which the electrical powertrain is coupled. This effort investigates failures originating in the electrical power system and their impact on the parallel hybrid propulsion system. Reversionary control strategies are also demonstrated to reduce the impact of the failures. Failure mitigation strategies were devised and employed in simulation. Various failure scenarios were simulated including those occurring during steady state operation, transients, and takeoff and landing scenarios. The timing of the failure and delay in failure identification and activation of mitigation strategies are noteworthy variables in the study. While the system remained stable throughout all failure scenarios, delays in failure identification could result in undesirable conditions such as increased operating temperatures and reduced stall margin. The results demonstrate successful mitigation of failures through reversionary control modes and help to generate confidence in the robustness of the conceptual parallel hybrid propulsion system.

Failure behavior↗

Failure Behavior and Control Based Mitigation for a Parallel Hybrid Propulsion System

NASA is pursuing research to advance Electrified Aircraft Propulsion (EAP) technologies that address fuel burn and emission reduction goals. EAP brings the potential for improved performance over the state of the art. However, for these systems to be practical and certifiable, they need to possess adequate robustness to adverse conditions including a variety of system failures that are not applicable to conventional turbofans today. Numerous EAP concepts interface gas turbine engines with an electrical power system that includes electric machines and sometimes electrical energy storage. The expansion of the powertrain increases the probability of encountering a failure and introduces new failure modes. Failures within the electrical power system may also impact the gas turbine engine(s) to which the electrical powertrain is coupled. This effort investigates failures originating in the electrical power system and their impact on the parallel hybrid propulsion system. Reversionary control strategies are also demonstrated to reduce the impact of the failures. Failure mitigation strategies were devised and employed in simulation. Various failure scenarios were simulated including those occurring during steady state operation, transients, and takeoff and landing scenarios. The timing of the failure and delay in failure identification and activation of mitigation strategies are noteworthy variables in the study. While the system remained stable throughout all failure scenarios, delays in failure identification could result in undesirable conditions such as increased operating temperatures and reduced stall margin. The results demonstrate successful mitigation of failures through reversionary control modes and help to generate confidence in the robustness of the conceptual parallel hybrid propulsion system.

Failure behavior↗

Multiphysics Modeling of Microreactors with NEAMS codes, and Validation Based on KRUSTY Reactivity Insertion

The NEAMS Multiphysics Applications team continues to assess code usability and functionality for microreactor design and safety analyses, while demonstrating that NEAMS tools capture both steady-state and transient behavior across distinct microreactor concepts. In FY2025, the team advanced full-core, high-fidelity, multiphysics models that solve more complex problems and strengthen verification/validation for several microreactor systems: heat-pipe microreactor (HPMR), gas-cooled microreactor (GCMR), and the KRUSTY experiment. These models employ the MOOSE MultiApp/Transfers architecture with Griffin for neutronics, BISON for heat conduction/thermomechanics, Sockeye for heat pipes, SAM/THM for coolant channels and loops, and SWIFT for hydride behavior, with meshes generated via the MOOSE Reactor Module. The graphite models available in the Grizzly code were also investigated for future analyses. For the HPMR, a Na-HPMR variant was constructed to align with recently validated heat-pipe experiments and Sockeye’s LCVF capability, enabling mechanistic heat-pipe transients and startup modeling. The Na-HPMR will serve as the primary model for HPMR investigations in upcoming tasks. The load-following and single heat-pipe failure scenarios (Griffin/BISON/Sockeye), which were previously modeled for the K-HPMR, were replicated for the Na-HPMR, showing strong negative temperature feedback and highly localized thermal effects, respectively, while the startup case captured vapor-front progression and heat-removal activation. Solid mechanics was added to the previously built K-HPMR full-core model in BISON, showing minimal impact on steady-state reactivity yet enabling stress-field predictions that prepare the path for full-core TRISO performance analyses. For the GCMR, automated steady-state and four transient scenarios were executed using Griffin/BISON/SAM/SWIFT. Results confirm robust inherent safety: power collapses promptly in loss-of-cooling events, the inlet-temperature drop settles to a new equilibrium, and a single-channel blockage yields only a ~30 K local fuel-temperature rise with <0.4% power decrease. SWIFT-predicted hydrogen redistribution affects reactivity during both steady-state and transient conditions, underscoring its importance. A Brayton-cycle balance of plant (BOP) model in SAM/THM demonstrated stable startup behavior, and xenon-driven reactivity during load following was analyzed. To improve TRISO-compact temperature fidelity, a fast multiscale Heat Source Decomposition (HSD) treatment was implemented. Against heterogeneous benchmarks, HSD reduces underprediction of kernel temperatures and lowers predicted peak powers in reactivity-insertion transients compared to previous homogenized models. KRUSTY warm-critical validation progressed from FY2024 baselines: the 15Ȼ insertion shows excellent agreement in peak power (~2% high) and temperature trends, and the 30Ȼ case was automated via a feedback controller that maintained power near 3 kW for ~150 s with close agreement to data. The successful modeling of the warm critical tests has laid a strong foundation for simulating more complex nuclear system tests in the years ahead. Throughout FY2025, developer feedback was provided (e.g., MOOSE batch mesh generation, distributed pre-split meshes, Griffin sweeper on displaced meshes), several new models were contributed to the Virtual Test Bed, and an OECD-NEA WPRS multiphysics benchmark based on the HPMR was initiated to enable broader cross-comparison and best-practice development with the nuclear community at large.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Do gamma-ray bursts originate from an extended Galactic Halo of high-velocity neutron stars?

The gamma-ray burst brightness distribution is inhomogeneous and the distribution on the sky is nearly isotropic. These features argue against an association of gamma-ray bursts with those Galactic objects that are known to exhibit a strong concentration toward the Galactic center or plane. The observed statistical properties indicate a cosmological origin. Circumstantial evidence suggests that neutron stars are involved in the burst phenomenon. Here we consider Population II neutron stars in an extended Galactic Halo (EGH) as an alternative to cosmological scenarios. The Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) data indicate a small deviation from isotropy near the 2 sigma level of statistical significance. If confirmed for an increasing number of bursts, these anisotropies could rule out cosmological scenarios. On the other hand, EGH models require small anisotropies like those observed by BATSE. We consider simple distribution models to determine the generic properties such halos must have to be consistent with the observations and discuss the implications of the corresponding distance scale on burst models.

Hartmann, Dieter H.↗

Performance Analysis and Simulaion of the Hydraulic Scram System in TREAT Reactor

The Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) serves a vital role in nuclear fuel safety research, enabling transient experiments that simulate reactivity excursions and accident scenarios. Central to these operations is the transient control rod drive system (TCRDS), which drives rapid motion of the transient control rods such that TREAT can simulate rapid power changes typical of reactor accidents. The reliability and performance of this system are critical for protecting both fuel specimens and reactor infrastructure. This study presents the initial phase of a two-year investigation into the dynamics and reliability of the TREAT hydraulic TCRDS. Conducted in collaboration with INL, the research employs a combined computational and experimental approach to analyze the system's response time, pressure transients, and potential failure modes. Emphasis is placed on understanding how fluid characteristics influence the TCRDS’s ability to achieve both rapid power changes and mechanical stability. The TRDS and the skid that powers it will be analyzed throughout this investigation. Computational modeling using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) will simulate the hydraulic response under varying conditions. In parallel, experimental testing planned at INL will validate these models and capture key performance metrics. This paper outlines the system design, analytical framework, and modeling strategies that form the foundation for later testing. Ultimately, this work aims to support improvements to the TCRDS’s design and reliability, contributing to the broader goal of enhancing nuclear fuel safety and sustaining TREAT’s mission as a premier nuclear fuel test facility.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

Achieving stationary high performance plasmas at Wendelstein 7-X

This work reports on recent results on the search for high performance plasma scenarios at the magnetically confined stellarator fusion device Wendelstein 7-X. In four new designed scenarios, the development from transient toward stationary plasmas of improved performance has been realized. In particular, a high performance duration of up to 5 s, an energy confinement time of 0.3 s, a diamagnetic energy of 1.1 MJ, a central ion temperature of 2.2 keV, and a fusion triple product of 3.4 x 10 19 m -3 ∙ keV ∙ s have been achieved, and previously observed limitations of the machine have been overcome, regarding both the performance and its duration. The two main experimental techniques for stationary high performance are neutral beam injection core fueling on the one hand and the use of a magnetic field configuration with internal islands on the other hand. Two of the developed scenarios are expected to be extendable straightforward toward a duration of several tens of seconds, making use of the long pulse operation capabilities of W7-X.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Coupling TRACE with nodal neutronics code Ants using the Exterior Communications Interface and VTT's multi-physics driver Cerberus

In this paper a recently developed coupling between system code TRACE and nodal neutronics code Ants is presented. The TRAC/RELAP Advanced Computational Engine (TRACE) is a reactor system code developed by U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The code has been designed to analyse loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs), operational transients and other accident scenarios in light water reactors. Ants is the reduced order nodal neutronics code of the Kraken framework. The diffusion solution method in Ants is based on the Analytic Function Expansion Nodal method (AFEN) and Flux Expansion Nodal Method (FENM). Rectangular, hexagonal and triangular geometries are supported. Both steady state and burnup problems including micro-depletion can be simulated. The coupling is implemented using VTT's multi-physics driver Cerberus and the Exterior Communications Interface (ECI) which is supplied with TRACE and enables the coupling of TRACE without source code modifications. The main focus in the paper is on describing the TRACE-Ants coupling in detail in order to share to other code developers what we have learned from the ECI based coupling process. The coupled code system is briefly tested by simulating a simple transient in a SMR core initiated by control rod movement. The results of the test calculation look reasonable and more complicated test cases will be modelled in the near future.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

AutoSourceID-Classifier: Star-galaxy classification using a convolutional neural network with spatial information

Aims.Traditional star-galaxy classification techniques often rely on feature estimation from catalogs, a process susceptible to introducing inaccuracies, thereby potentially jeopardizing the classification’s reliability. Certain galaxies, especially those not manifesting as extended sources, can be misclassified when their shape parameters and flux solely drive the inference. We aim to create a robust and accurate classification network for identifying stars and galaxies directly from astronomical images. Methods.The AutoSourceID-Classifier (ASID-C) algorithm developed for this work uses 32x32 pixel single filter band source cutouts generated by the previously developed AutoSourceID-Light (ASID-L) code. By leveraging convolutional neural networks (CNN) and additional information about the source position within the full-field image, ASID-C aims to accurately classify all stars and galaxies within a survey. Subsequently, we employed a modified Platt scaling calibration for the output of the CNN, ensuring that the derived probabilities were effectively calibrated, delivering precise and reliable results. Results.We show that ASID-C, trained on MeerLICHT telescope images and using the Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey (DECaLS) morphological classification, is a robust classifier and outperforms similar codes such as SourceExtractor. To facilitate a rigorous comparison, we also trained an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model on tabular features extracted by SourceExtractor. While this XGBoost model approaches ASID-C in performance metrics, it does not offer the computational efficiency and reduced error propagation inherent in ASID-C’s direct image-based classification approach. ASID-C excels in low signal-to-noise ratio and crowded scenarios, potentially aiding in transient host identification and advancing deep-sky astronomy.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

SAM Code Enhancements for Modeling of Liquid Metal-Cooled Fast Reactor Concepts

The SAM code is under development and supported by DOE-NE’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program as a modern system-level modeling and simulation tool for advanced non-light water reactor safety analyses. These advanced reactor concepts incorporate novel and improved approaches to achieve safety and economic feasibility. This report summarizes two major efforts in addressing the modeling gaps in SAM for liquid-metal-cooled fast reactor (LMFR) applications, i.e. thermal mixing and stratification phenomena in large pools and corrosion-oxidation of components in flowing lead. A new one-dimensional model for thermal mixing and stratification effects in large pools and enclosures is developed and implemented. Thermal mixing and stratification occur when fluid enters a pool at a temperature different than the bulk fluid itself, a scenario often encountered during transients in pool-type systems. These phenomena are critical for the safety of reactors, impacting phenomena like natural circulation, which is essential for passive cooling. The improved model in SAM addresses limitations of state-of-the-art approaches by combining one-dimensional (1D) channels, representing the coolant jet flow, with lumped-parameter zero-dimensional (0D) pools, representing the rest of coolant in the tank. Energy exchange between the 1D jet and the 0D pools is based on heat transfer correlations calibrated against 3D simulations. It is verified that this model can handle various flow configurations, including hot jets in colder pools, cold jets in hotter pools, and the presence of features like ceilings, free surfaces, and obstacles. Additionally, validation against experimental data demonstrates the ability of the model to capture mixing and stratification effects in a wide range of conditions. The flexibility and improved accuracy of the new model make it a valuable tool for reactor safety analysis, allowing for the simulation of different geometries encountered in advanced reactors. A system-level corrosion modeling capability is developed and implemented in SAM to support Lead Fast Reactor (LFR) development. Although the initial focus of this capability will be on LFR application, this can later be expanded to include other liquid metals such as Lead-Bismuth Eutectic (LBE) and PbLi. This report summarizes the common corrosion mitigation strategies and outlines the progress on implementing and validating a corrosion-oxidation model in SAM. Verification and validation of the corrosion-oxidation portion of the model was performed using analytical solution and measured data from samples tested in the non-isothermal pumped lead loop at IPPE Obninsk. The iron transport and corrosion/precipitation portion of the model was assessed using an analytical model and measured corrosion depths from a natural convection lead loop experiment performed at CEA. It is demonstrated that the model implemented in SAM performed well in these assessments.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Variations in the abundance of transiently heated particles within nearby molecular clouds

IRAS images of molecular clouds in the Chamaeleon, Taurus, and Ursa Major complexes show that the mid-IR emission from transiently heated particles is distributed very differently from the 100 micron emission from large dust grains. The ratio between 12 and 100 micron emission varies by more than one order of magnitude in each complex from about 5 times to about one-quarter of the average value in the solar neighborhood. Within a complex, color variations are seen on all scales. No significant variations of the I(v)(100 micron)/A(v) ratio are observed between clouds of widely different mid- to far-IR color. It is shown that neither the large amplitude of the color variations nor their morphology can be explained by changes of the excitation by the UV radiation field and it is concluded that the color variations trace variations in the abundance of transiently heated particles. A scenario is proposed which relates the abundance variations to the cycling of interstellar matter between the gas-phase and grain surfaces.

Boulanger, F.↗

Adaptive attitude stability and control for Space Station/Orbiter berthing operations

The fully coupled, systematically linearized equations of motion are used for attitude control system design of an early Space Station Freedom flight configuration. These equations are valid around any estimated spacecraft equilibrium point. A full state feedback controller, incorporating gain scheduled adaptation of the attitude gains, is developed for use during spacecraft on-orbit operations characterized by significant mass properties variations. Feasibility of the gain adaptation is demonstrated via a Space Station Freedom/Orbiter berthing operation scenario. The attitude controller transient performance during gain adaptation appear satisfactory.

Parlos, Alexander G.↗

A Sensitivity Study of Commercial Aircraft Engine Response for Emergency Situations

This paper contains the details of a sensitivity study in which the variation in a commercial aircraft engine's outputs is observed for perturbations in its operating condition inputs or control parameters. This study seeks to determine the extent to which various controller limits can be modified to improve engine performance, while capturing the increased risk that results from the changes. In an emergency, the engine may be required to produce additional thrust, respond faster, or both, to improve the survivability of the aircraft. The objective of this paper is to propose changes to the engine controller and determine the costs and benefits of the additional capabilities produced by the engine. This study indicates that the aircraft engine is capable of producing additional thrust, but at the cost of an increased risk of an engine failure due to higher turbine temperatures and rotor speeds. The engine can also respond more quickly to transient commands, but this action reduces the remaining stall margin to possibly dangerous levels. To improve transient response in landing scenarios, a control mode known as High Speed Idle is proposed that increases the responsiveness of the engine and conserves stall margin

Csank, Jeffrey T.↗

Inhomogeneous Forcing and Transient Climate Sensitivity

Understanding climate sensitivity is critical to projecting climate change in response to a given forcing scenario. Recent analyses have suggested that transient climate sensitivity is at the low end of the present model range taking into account the reduced warming rates during the past 10-15 years during which forcing has increased markedly. In contrast, comparisons of modelled feedback processes with observations indicate that the most realistic models have higher sensitivities. Here I analyse results from recent climate modelling intercomparison projects to demonstrate that transient climate sensitivity to historical aerosols and ozone is substantially greater than the transient climate sensitivity to CO2. This enhanced sensitivity is primarily caused by more of the forcing being located at Northern Hemisphere middle to high latitudes where it triggers more rapid land responses and stronger feedbacks. I find that accounting for this enhancement largely reconciles the two sets of results, and I conclude that the lowest end of the range of transient climate response to CO2 in present models and assessments (less than 1.3 C) is very unlikely.

sensitivity↗