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Recent advances and challenges in optimization models for expansion planning of power systems and reliability optimization

Optimization models for expansion planning of power systems aim to determine capacities, investment timing, and location of power systems to satisfy the power demands while minimizing the total cost. The models have become complex in recent years to reflect both regulations on conventional energy sources and the increasing penetration of renewable energy sources (RES). This paper reviews the basic concepts and optimization models for expansion planning of power systems. We first explain the definition and features of generation expansion planning (GEP), transmission expansion planning (TEP), and generation and transmission expansion planning (GTEP). To address the computational challenges of large-scale expansion planning problems, we review several simplifications including temporal and spatial aggregation, and decomposition methods. This paper also addresses power system reliability defined as the probability of satisfying the load demand while withstanding failures of components. Finally, the goal of this paper is to provide a research overview, discuss trends in expansion planning of power systems, and suggest directions for future research.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Examples of State and Utility Actions on Proactive Planning and Investments

As states across the U.S. confront rising electricity demand, clean energy deployment, grid modernization imperatives, and the integration of large new loads, some regulators and utilities are shifting away from reactive, “just-in-time” investment approaches toward more proactive planning and investment frameworks. This report compiles examples of jurisdictional and utility actions that reshape planning processes, cost recovery mechanisms, and performance oversight to anticipate—rather than simply respond to—future grid needs. Several themes emerge from state actions examined in this report. First, legislatures and commissions are increasingly directing utilities to proactively upgrade their distribution and transmission systems, reflecting a shift toward a forward-looking system that aligns planning with state policy goals. Second, states are establishing long-term, iterative planning frameworks that often feature multi-year horizons, biannual or annual compliance reporting, structured opportunities for stakeholder engagement, and emphasis on collaboration among utilities, regulators, and stakeholders. Third, states are actively investigating innovative cost recovery mechanisms designed to support accelerated electrification and grid modernization, while balancing consumer advocates’ concerns regarding the ratepayer financial risks of premature investments. Fourth, performance metrics and reporting requirements are being developed to ensure transparency and accountability for proactive investments. Fifth, methodological improvements in planning—such as aligning load forecasting assumptions, incorporating sensitivities, and considering load management potential across building, vehicles, storage, and demand response—are recurring areas of stakeholder focus across jurisdictions. Overall, these developments signify a growing recognition among state regulators, utilities, and stakeholders that proactive planning—supported by clear definitions, consistent and transparent methodologies, robust performance metrics, and innovative cost recovery mechanisms—is a tool that can be used to address the scale and urgency of contemporary grid needs.

electricity market↗

GODEEEP-hydro: Historical and projected power system ready hydropower data for the United States

Hydropower is a critical electricity resource in the United States which, in addition to low-cost electricity generation, provides valuable ancillary grid services, and supports the integration of nondispatchable weather-dependent resources (e.g., wind and solar). Despite its value to the grid, there are very few comprehensive datasets available from which to study both historical and future impacts of climate, weather driven energy droughts, and integration of other weather driven generation. In this paper, we present a hydropower generation dataset covering 1,452 hydroelectric plants in the contiguous U.S. The dataset contains monthly and weekly hydropower generation estimates for both historical (1982–2019) and future (2020–2099) periods which includes 4 future climate scenarios. In addition, this dataset provides weekly and monthly constraints such as minimum and maximum power which are particularly useful in power system models which are used to study grid reliability, transmission planning and capacity expansion.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

State Spotlight on Resilience: The Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission’s Wildfire Mitigation Plans

Wildfires present a significant risk to critical infrastructure, endangering energy systems by damaging transmission lines and imposing a variety of costs on utilities and their customers. Wildfires have increased nationally in both extent and intensity as vegetation conditions become drier and wind patterns become more turbulent. Aging infrastructure may also cause transmission lines to ignite vegetation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Advanced Sensor Deployment for Distribution System State Estimation and Fault Identification

Distribution systems are currently facing steep operational challenges as a result of the rapidly increasing integration of renewables and other distributed energy resources (DERs) at both the primary and secondary circuit levels. Distribution utilities and system operators have traditionally had some visibility of their primary circuits using low-frequency supervisory control and data acquisition systems, and they have had very poor if not zero visibility of the secondary circuits where the presence of DERs is constantly increasing. Therefore, this paper presents simulation studies to demonstrate the benefits of an advanced, high-fidelity sensor technology, called as the Meta-Alert System (MAS), developed by Electrical Grid Monitoring, Ltd. (EGM), on the distribution grid. First, a reliable model of the EGM sensors is developed, and then two use cases, distribution system state estimation (DSSE) and fault identification are simulated to evaluate the performance of the MAS technology. Simulation results on the Electric Power Research Institute J1 feeder demonstrate that the MAS can effectively participate in system-level DSSE programs and can detect and locate faults faster than traditional distribution protection schemes.

distribution system↗

Emergency Asset Positioning for Resilient Transmission Grid Operation

In this paper we study a problem of hurricane emergency preparedness via placement of emergency generation assets prior to its strike. We present a two-stage stochastic model for choosing locations and quantities of emergency storage to help support the power grid through a hurricane event. The expectation of losses in our two-stage model is estimated using the sample average approximation. We construct damage scenarios for sample average approximation using WIND Toolkit meteorological data and fragility curves of various electric grid components. We demonstrate the efficacy of our two-stage planning model by simulating operations during Hurricane Dolly on the 2000-bus transmission test system. Our model, coupled with our scenario selection strategy, is effective at mitigating loss of load when compared to a model without emergency generation assets placed prior to an extreme event.

emergency preparedness↗

USAID Haiti Training Session #1: Engage Orientation [Slides]

Welcome to Engage! Engage is a capacity expansion modeling tool supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and based on the Calliope open-source capacity expansion model developed by the ETH Zurich University, maintained at the TU Delft University. Engage is an accessible (free, open-access, web-hosted) and flexible web-based energy system planning application for rapid multiple-energy-form energy system scenario exploration. Its cloud-based, collaborator-sharable data model, intuitive interface and visualization capabilities facilitate collaboration and communication among teams, with experts, and among diverse stakeholder groups exploring energy system implications at from district to national-scale models. This training series was developed under USAID to empower Haitian stakeholders to explore modeling scenarios in Engage to develop a Haiti Energy Master Plan. This training series includes a general overview of how Engage works along with tailored exercises that target Haiti's specific energy needs, such as modeling the capacity expansion of the bulk power system, fuel scarcity challenges, the development of microgrids, and the economic viability of transmission strategies. See NREL/PR-7A40-89366 for the French translation of this document.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

USAID Haiti Training Session #2: Introduction to Engage [Slides]

Welcome to Engage! Engage is a capacity expansion modeling tool supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and based on the Calliope open-source capacity expansion model developed by the ETH Zurich University, maintained at the TU Delft University. Engage is an accessible (free, open-access, web-hosted) and flexible web-based energy system planning application for rapid multiple-energy-form energy system scenario exploration. Its cloud-based, collaborator-sharable data model, intuitive interface and visualization capabilities facilitate collaboration and communication among teams, with experts, and among diverse stakeholder groups exploring energy system implications from district to national-scale models. This training series was developed under USAID to empower Haitian stakeholders to explore modeling scenarios in Engage to develop a Haiti Energy Master Plan. This training series includes a general overview of how Engage works along with tailored exercises that target Haiti's specific energy needs, such as modeling the capacity expansion of the bulk power system, fuel scarcity challenges, the development of microgrids, and the economic viability of transmission strategies. See NREL/PR-7A40-89369 for the French translation of this document.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

USAID Haiti Training Session #3: Capacity Expansion [Slides]

Welcome to Engage! Engage is a capacity expansion modeling tool supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and based on the Calliope open-source capacity expansion model developed by the ETH Zurich University, maintained at the TU Delft University. Engage is an accessible (free, open-access, web-hosted) and flexible web-based energy system planning application for rapid multiple-energy-form energy system scenario exploration. Its cloud-based, collaborator-sharable data model, intuitive interface and visualization capabilities facilitate collaboration and communication among teams, with experts, and among diverse stakeholder groups exploring energy system implications from district to national-scale models. This training series was developed under USAID to empower Haitian stakeholders to explore modeling scenarios in Engage to develop a Haiti Energy Master Plan. This training series includes a general overview of how Engage works along with tailored exercises that target Haiti's specific energy needs, such as modeling the capacity expansion of the bulk power system, fuel scarcity challenges, the development of microgrids, and the economic viability of transmission strategies. See NREL/PR-7A40-89365 for the French translation of this document.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Session de formation de l'USAID en Haiti n1: Orientation de l'outil Engage [Slides]

Welcome to Engage! Engage is a capacity expansion modeling tool supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and based on the Calliope open-source capacity expansion model developed by the ETH Zurich University, maintained at the TU Delft University. Engage is an accessible (free, open-access, web-hosted) and flexible web-based energy system planning application for rapid multiple-energy-form energy system scenario exploration. Its cloud-based, collaborator-sharable data model, intuitive interface and visualization capabilities facilitate collaboration and communication among teams, with experts, and among diverse stakeholder groups exploring energy system implications at from district to national-scale models. This training series was developed under USAID to empower Haitian stakeholders to explore modeling scenarios in Engage to develop a Haiti Energy Master Plan. This training series includes a general overview of how Engage works along with tailored exercises that target Haiti's specific energy needs, such as modeling the capacity expansion of the bulk power system, fuel scarcity challenges, the development of microgrids, and the economic viability of transmission strategies. See NREL/PR-7A40-88835 for the English translation of this document.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Session de formation de l'USAID en Haiti n2: Introduction a l'outil Engage [Slides]

Welcome to Engage! Engage is a capacity expansion modeling tool supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and based on the Calliope open-source capacity expansion model developed by the ETH Zurich University, maintained at the TU Delft University. Engage is an accessible (free, open-access, web-hosted) and flexible web-based energy system planning application for rapid multiple-energy-form energy system scenario exploration. Its cloud-based, collaborator-sharable data model, intuitive interface and visualization capabilities facilitate collaboration and communication among teams, with experts, and among diverse stakeholder groups exploring energy system implications from district to national-scale models. This training series was developed under USAID to empower Haitian stakeholders to explore modeling scenarios in Engage to develop a Haiti Energy Master Plan. This training series includes a general overview of how Engage works along with tailored exercises that target Haiti's specific energy needs, such as modeling the capacity expansion of the bulk power system, fuel scarcity challenges, the development of microgrids, and the economic viability of transmission strategies. See NREL/PR-7A40-88836 for the English translation of this document.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Seance de formation de l'USAID en Haiti n3: Expansion des capacites [Slides]

Welcome to Engage! Engage is a capacity expansion modeling tool supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and based on the Calliope open-source capacity expansion model developed by the ETH Zurich University, maintained at the TU Delft University. Engage is an accessible (free, open-access, web-hosted) and flexible web-based energy system planning application for rapid multiple-energy-form energy system scenario exploration. Its cloud-based, collaborator-sharable data model, intuitive interface and visualization capabilities facilitate collaboration and communication among teams, with experts, and among diverse stakeholder groups exploring energy system implications from district to national-scale models. This training series was developed under USAID to empower Haitian stakeholders to explore modeling scenarios in Engage to develop a Haiti Energy Master Plan. This training series includes a general overview of how Engage works along with tailored exercises that target Haiti's specific energy needs, such as modeling the capacity expansion of the bulk power system, fuel scarcity challenges, the development of microgrids, and the economic viability of transmission strategies. See NREL/PR-7A40-88837 for the English translation of this document.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

USAID Haiti Training Session #4: Resilience and Power Sector Modeling Part I [Slides]

Welcome to Engage! Engage is a capacity expansion modeling tool supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and based on the Calliope open-source capacity expansion model developed by the ETH Zurich University, maintained at the TU Delft University. Engage is an accessible (free, open-access, web-hosted) and flexible web-based energy system planning application for rapid multiple-energy-form energy system scenario exploration. Its cloud-based, collaborator-sharable data model, intuitive interface and visualization capabilities facilitate collaboration and communication among teams, with experts, and among diverse stakeholder groups exploring energy system implications at from district to national-scale models. This training series was developed under USAID to empower Haitian stakeholders to explore modeling scenarios in Engage to develop a Haiti Energy Master Plan. This training series includes a general overview of how Engage works along with tailored exercises that target Haiti's specific energy needs, such as modeling the capacity expansion of the bulk power system, fuel scarcity challenges, the development of microgrids, and the economic viability of transmission strategies. See NREL/PR-7A40-89408 for the French translation of this document.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

USAID Haiti Training Session #4: Resilience and Power Sector Modeling Part II [Slides]

Welcome to Engage! Engage is a capacity expansion modeling tool supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and based on the Calliope open-source capacity expansion model developed by the ETH Zurich University, maintained at the TU Delft University. Engage is an accessible (free, open-access, web-hosted) and flexible web-based energy system planning application for rapid multiple-energy-form energy system scenario exploration. Its cloud-based, collaborator-sharable data model, intuitive interface and visualization capabilities facilitate collaboration and communication among teams, with experts, and among diverse stakeholder groups exploring energy system implications from district to national-scale models. This training series was developed under USAID to empower Haitian stakeholders to explore modeling scenarios in Engage to develop a Haiti Energy Master Plan. This training series includes a general overview of how Engage works along with tailored exercises that target Haiti's specific energy needs, such as modeling the capacity expansion of the bulk power system, fuel scarcity challenges, the development of microgrids, and the economic viability of transmission strategies. See NREL/PR-7A40-89412 for the French translation of this document.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Seance de formation n4: Modelisation de la resilience et du secteur de l'electricite - Partie I [Slides]

Welcome to Engage! Engage is a capacity expansion modeling tool supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and based on the Calliope open-source capacity expansion model developed by the ETH Zurich University, maintained at the TU Delft University. Engage is an accessible (free, open-access, web-hosted) and flexible web-based energy system planning application for rapid multiple-energy-form energy system scenario exploration. Its cloud-based, collaborator-sharable data model, intuitive interface and visualization capabilities facilitate collaboration and communication among teams, with experts, and among diverse stakeholder groups exploring energy system implications from district to national-scale models. This training series was developed under USAID to empower Haitian stakeholders to explore modeling scenarios in Engage to develop a Haiti Energy Master Plan. This training series includes a general overview of how Engage works along with tailored exercises that target Haiti's specific energy needs, such as modeling the capacity expansion of the bulk power system, fuel scarcity challenges, the development of microgrids, and the economic viability of transmission strategies. See NREL/PR-7A40-88838 for the English translation of this document.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Seance de formation n4: Modelisation de la resilience et du secteur de l'electricite - Partie II [Slides]

Welcome to Engage! Engage is a capacity expansion modeling tool supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and based on the Calliope open-source capacity expansion model developed by the ETH Zurich University, maintained at the TU Delft University. Engage is an accessible (free, open-access, web-hosted) and flexible web-based energy system planning application for rapid multiple-energy-form energy system scenario exploration. Its cloud-based, collaborator-sharable data model, intuitive interface and visualization capabilities facilitate collaboration and communication among teams, with experts, and among diverse stakeholder groups exploring energy system implications from district to national-scale models. This training series was developed under USAID to empower Haitian stakeholders to explore modeling scenarios in Engage to develop a Haiti Energy Master Plan. This training series includes a general overview of how Engage works along with tailored exercises that target Haiti's specific energy needs, such as modeling the capacity expansion of the bulk power system, fuel scarcity challenges, the development of microgrids, and the economic viability of transmission strategies. See NREL/PR-7A40-89389 for the English translation of this document.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Fast Flexibility-Driven Generation Portfolio Planning Method for Sustainable Power Systems

We are witnessing an acceleration in the uptake of renewable energy in power systems. Because of the associated variability and uncertainty of renewables, power systems need to have an adequate supply of flexibility to allow for suitable management of short-term operations. So far most of the work in this area has neglected how flexibility needs associated with renewables are fulfilled as part of dispatchable generation capital investments decisions. To address this challenge, we propose an approach to plan the dispatchable generation mix of a power system as needed to counteract variability and uncertainty associated with significant shares of variable renewable generation. The approach exploits the linear time-invariant feature of variable generation variability using historical phase planes of capacity (in MW) and ramp (in MW/min) to bridge the gap between long-term capacity planning and short-term intra-hour flexibility needs. This approach is much more computationally tractable than other proposals, while also being able to capture adequately short-term operational features like ramping and net load variability. Numerical tests are performed on realistic datasets to substantiate the effectiveness of the approach.

bulk power system planning↗