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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Orographic enhancement of rainfall over the Congo Basin

Abstract The Congo rainforest located in central equatorial Africa is an important, yet understudied part of the globe surrounded by complex orographic features. A primitive understanding of precipitation processes such as mesoscale convective dynamics magnifies uncertainties in the future climate projections of the hydrological cycle over the Congo. Furthermore, the effects of orography, which is an important forcing for convection and precipitation, are poorly resolved by climate models, and ill‐conceptualized over the Congo. To address this knowledge gap, perturbed orographic forcing experiments are conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical model in a high‐resolution convection‐permitting model setup. The model simulated selected dates in November 2014. The thunderstorms and rainfall simulated in the control run for the case study analyzed in this article compared reasonably well to satellite‐derived brightness temperature and rainfall data. The results from this case study show that the dynamical impact of increasing the height of the East African Highlands is the blocking of the lower‐tropospheric tropical easterlies. This weakening of the lower‐tropospheric zonal winds increases the windshear over the Congo Basin resulting in slower propagating, more intense mesoscale convective systems with enhanced rainfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2001

Enhancement of Tropical Land Cover Mapping with Wavelet-Based Fusion and Unsupervised Clustering of SAR and Landsat Image Data

The characterization and the mapping of land cover/land use of forest areas, such as the Central African rainforest, is a very complex task. This complexity is mainly due to the extent of such areas and, as a consequence, to the lack of full and continuous cloud-free coverage of those large regions by one single remote sensing instrument, In order to provide improved vegetation maps of Central Africa and to develop forest monitoring techniques for applications at the local and regional scales, we propose to utilize multi-sensor remote sensing observations coupled with in-situ data. Fusion and clustering of multi-sensor data are the first steps towards the development of such a forest monitoring system. In this paper, we will describe some preliminary experiments involving the fusion of SAR and Landsat image data of the Lope Reserve in Gabon. Similarly to previous fusion studies, our fusion method is wavelet-based. The fusion provides a new image data set which contains more detailed texture features and preserves the large homogeneous regions that are observed by the Thematic Mapper sensor. The fusion step is followed by unsupervised clustering and provides a vegetation map of the area.

LeMoigne, Jacqueline↗
NASA NTRS1998

A System Concept for the Advanced Post-TRMM Rainfall Profiling Radars

Atmospheric latent heating field is fundamental to all modes of atmospheric circulation and upper mixed layer circulations of the ocean. The key to understanding the atmospheric heating process is understanding how and where precipitation occurs. The principal atmospheric processes which link precipitation to atmospheric circulation include: (1) convective mass fluxes in the form of updrafts and downdrafts; (2) microphysical. nucleation and growth of hydrometeors; and (3) latent heating through dynamical controls on the gravitation-driven vertical mass flux of precipitation. It is well-known that surface and near-surface rainfall are two of the key forcing functions on a number of geophysical parameters at the surface-air interface. Over ocean, rainfall variation contributes to the redistribution of water salinity, sea surface temperature, fresh water supply, and marine biology and eco-system. Over land, rainfall plays a significant role in rainforest ecology and chemistry, land hydrology and surface runoff. Precipitation has also been closely linked to a number of atmospheric anomalies and natural hazards that occur at various time scales, including hurricanes, cyclones, tropical depressions, flash floods, droughts, and most noticeable of all, the El Ninos. From this point of view, the significance of global atmospheric precipitation has gone far beyond the science arena - it has a far-reaching impact on human's socio-economic well-being and sustenance. These and many other science applications require the knowledge of, in a global basis, the vertical rain structures, including vertical motion, rain intensity, differentiation of the precipitating hydrometeors' phase state, and the classification of mesoscale physical structure of the rain systems. The only direct means to obtain such information is the use of a spaceborne profiling radar. It is important to mention that the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) have made a great stride forward towards this ultimate goal. The Precipitation Radar (PR) aboard the TRMM satellite is the first ever spaceborne radar dedicated to three-dimensional, global precipitation measurements over the tropics and the subtropics, as well as the detailed synopsis of a wide range of tropical rain storm systems. In only twelve months since launch, the PR, together with other science instruments abroad the satellite have already provided unprecedented insights into the rainfall systems. It is anticipated the a lot more exciting and important rain observations would be made by TRMM throughout its mission duration. While TRMM has provided invaluable data to the user community, it is only the first step towards advancing our knowledge on rain processes and its contributions to climate variability. It is envisioned that a TRMM follow-on mission is needed in such a way to capitalize on the pioneering information provided by TRMM, and its instrument capability must be extended beyond TRMM in such a way to fully address the key science questions from microphysical to climatic time scale. In fact, a number of new and innovative mission concepts have recently put forth for this purpose. Almost all of these new concepts have suggested the utility of a more advanced, high-resolution, Doppler-enabled, vertical profiling radar that can provide multi-parameter observations of precipitation. In this paper, a system concept for a second- gene ration precipitation radar (PR-2) which addresses the above requirements will be described.

Im, Eastwood↗
NASA NTRS2011

Changes in the Carbon Cycle of Amazon Ecosystems During the 2010 Drought

Satellite remote sensing was combined with the NASA-CASA carbon cycle simulation model to evaluate the impact of the 2010 drought (July through September) throughout tropical South America. Results indicated that net primary production (NPP) in Amazon forest areas declined by an average of 7% in 2010 compared to 2008. This represented a loss of vegetation CO2 uptake and potential Amazon rainforest growth of nearly 0.5 Pg C in 2010. The largest overall decline in ecosystem carbon gains by land cover type was predicted for closed broadleaf forest areas of the Amazon River basin, including a large fraction of regularly flooded forest areas. Model results support the hypothesis that soil and dead wood carbon decomposition fluxes of CO2 to the atmosphere were elevated during the drought period of 2010 in periodically flooded forest areas, compared to forests outside the main river floodplains.

Potter, Christophera↗
NASA NTRS2015

Thermodynamics and Cloud Radiative Effect from the First Year of GoAmazon

Deforestation is an ongoing concern for the Amazon Rainforest of Brazil and associated changes to the land surface have been hypothesized to alter the climate in the region. A comprehensive set of meteorological observations at the surface and within the lower troposphere above Manacapuru, Brazil and data from the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) are used to evaluate the seasonal cycle of cloudiness, thermodynamics, and the radiation budget. While ample moisture is present in the Amazon Rainforest year round, the northward progression of the Hadley circulation during the dry season contributes to a drying of the middle troposphere and inhibits the formation of deep convection. This results in a reduction in cloudiness and precipitation as well as an increase in the height of the lifting condensation level, which is shown to have a negative correlation to the fraction of low clouds. Frequent cloudiness prevents solar radiation from reaching the surface and clouds are often reflective with high values of shortwave cloud radiative effect at the surface and top of the atmosphere. Cloud radiative effect is reduced during the dry season however the dry season surface shortwave cloud radiative effect is still double what is observed during the wet season in other tropical locations. Within the column, the impact of clouds on the radiation budget is more prevalent in the longwave part of the spectrum, with a net warming in the wet season.

Amazon Rainforest↗
NASA NTRS1983

Production of nitrous oxide and consumption of methane by forest soils

Soils in an Amazonian rainforest are observed to release N2O at a rate larger than the global mean by about a factor of 20. Emissions from a New England hardwood forest are approximately 30 times smaller then Brazilian values. Atmospheric methane is consumed by soils in both systems. Tropical forests would provide a major source of atmospheric N2O if the Brazilian results are representative.

Keller, M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

The ATTO-Campina site: A new observatory for tropical convection and gas-aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions in the Amazon

We present results from ATTO-Campina, a new permanent observational site in central Amazon, about 4 km from the ATTO towers. Operational since 2020, ATTO-Campina characterizes atmospheric, cloud and rainfall properties through remote sensing. The goal is to provide continuous, complementary measurements to the ATTO towers, addressing the rainforest’s complex gas-aerosol-cloud-precipitation dynamics. Using a 3.5-year dataset, we classified convective clouds into three types: shallow cumulus (ShCu), congestus (Con) or (Deep) clouds. The shallow-to-deep transition takes about three hours, starting with ShCu formation at 11:00 local time. The accumulated rainfall peak follows at about 16:00. Only weak downdrafts are present in the upper troposphere where previous studies indicate new particle formation (NPF) occurrence. Strong downdrafts are mostly limited to heights below 5 km. Con and Deep convective days have higher concentrations of ultrafine aerosol and lower concentrations of accumulation-mode particles compared to ShCu. Convective clouds also significantly modify gas mixing ratios. Deep convective clouds are associated with high near-surface O3, consistent with downward transport from the midtroposphere. Our results showcase the added detail achieved by integrating data from the ATTO towers and ATTO-Campina sites. Together, these sites support better understanding of interconnected gas-aerosol-cloud-precipitation processes in the Amazon and their evolution under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deforestation triggering irreversible transition in Amazon hydrological cycle

The Amazon is hypothesized to reach an irreversible ‘tipping point’ when deforestation slows the hydrological cycle sufficiently that tropical forest ecosystems cannot be sustained. However, inception of such a tipping point has not been supported by observations and the relevant links between deforestation and atmospheric moisture recycling are poorly understood. Here we show that reduction in evapotranspiration from 20 years of deforestation dried the atmosphere persistently and caused moisture decoupling, i.e. an opposite sign of moisture change between the lower and middle troposphere. Increased deforestation exacerbated the lower troposphere drying and caused it to penetrate deeper into the middle troposphere in the dry and transition seasons over monsoon forests and savannas. Deforestation induced warming-enhanced buoyant updrafts, elevated hot and dry air and thereby reduced downward mixing of water supplies from the tropical Atlantic that normally moisten the Amazon forests. The severe atmospheric desiccation in the southern and eastern Amazon cannot be compensated by enhanced water supplies from the Atlantic Ocean, demonstrating an irreversible transition in Amazon hydrological cycle exacerbated by rapid deforestation. The more recent drying through the seasons over rainforests and during the wet season over the transition zones from rainforests to monsoon forests and savannas, however, suggests a window of opportunity for preventing ecosystem collapse with forest conservation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data from a throughfall exclusion experiment: Fine root dynamics, morphology, chemistry, and AMF colonization across four lowland Panamanian forests

Fine roots regulate forest nutrient, carbon, and water cycling, yet their variation within and among tropical forests remains under-characterized. We quantified root productivity, disappearance, and stocks to 1 m using minirhizotron imaging, and we measured morphology, elemental composition [root carbon (C), root nitrogen (N), root phosphorus (P)], and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) colonization to 20 cm using ingrowth cores and sequential coring. Sampling took place in four distinct lowland Panamanian forests (32 plots; 8 per forest) from 2018 through 2022 under control and throughfall-exclusion (drought) treatments in the Panama Rainforest Changes with Experimental Drying (PARCHED) experiment.The dataset is presented as an Excel workbook with six tabs. The first tab is the data dictionary. Tab S1 contains ingrowth-core production and mortality, morphology and soil moisture. Tab S2 contains sequential-coring standing stocks with associated morphology and soil moisture. Tab S3 contains minirhizotron row data records to 1 m depth, including per-frame root length and diameter, normalized length metrics, and session timing. Tab S4 contains AMF colonization. Tab S5 contains fine-root chemistry at 0–10 cm, reporting %P, %C, %N, and C:N for samples collected via ingrowth cores and sequential-coring standing stocks. CSV mirrors for each tab are provided, and a KML file supplies coordinates for all 32 plots.Key variables span live and dead fine-root biomass (and coarse fractions where applicable), specific root length (SRL) and area (SRA), diameter, root tissue density (RTD), soil moisture, AMF colonization, root %N, %C, %P, and C:N, along with minirhizotron root length and diameter. Depth, season, treatment, and plot/site identifiers are included to support cross-tab integration and analysis from 0–100 cm (minirhizotron) and 0–20 cm (cores).Units are reported in-column and missing values are coded as NA. No special software is required to open or use the files (Excel, CSV, and KML compatible).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1997

Light, temperature, and leaf nitrogen distribution in the tropical rain forest of Biosphere 2 and their importance in the mathematical models for global environmental changes

As the environmental changes occur throughout the world in rapid rate, we need to have further understandings for our planet. Since the ecosystems are so complex, it is almost impossible for us to integrate every factor. However, mathematical models are powerful tools which can be used to simulate those ecosystems with limited data. In this project, I collected light intensity, canopy leaf temperature and Air Handler (AHU) temperature, and nitrogen concentration in the leaves for different profiles in the rainforest mesocosm. These data will later be put into mathematical models such as "big-leaf" and "sun/shade" models to determine how these factors will affect CO2 exchange in the rainforest. As rainforests are diminishing from our planet and their existence is very important for all living things on earth, it is necessary for us to learn more about the unique system of rainforests and how we can co-exist rather than destroy.

Tohda, Motofumi↗
DOE OSTI2025

Community‐Level Metabolic Shifts Following Land Use Change in the Amazon Rainforest Identified by a Supervised Machine Leaning Approach

ABSTRACT The Amazon rainforest has been subjected to high rates of deforestation, mostly for pasturelands, over the last few decades. This change in plant cover is known to alter the soil microbiome and the functions it mediates, but the genomic changes underlying this response are still unresolved. In this study, we used a combination of deep shotgun metagenomics complemented by a supervised machine learning approach to compare the metabolic strategies of tropical soil microbial communities in pristine forests and long‐term established pastures in the Amazon. Machine learning‐derived metagenome analysis indicated that microbial community structures (bacteria, archaea and viruses) and the composition of protein‐coding genes were distinct in each plant cover type environment. Forest and pasture soils had different genomic diversities for the above three taxonomic groups, characterised by their protein‐coding genes. These differences in metagenome profiles in soils under forests and pastures suggest that metabolic strategies related to carbohydrate and energy metabolisms were altered at community level. Changes were also consistent with known modifications to the C and N cycles caused by long‐term shifts in aboveground vegetation and were also associated with several soil physicochemical properties known to change with land use, such as the C/N ratio, soil temperature and exchangeable acidity. In addition, our analysis reveals that these alterations in land use can also result in changes to the composition and diversity of the soil DNA virome. Collectively, our study indicates that soil microbial communities shift their overall metabolic strategies, driven by genomic alterations observed in pristine forests and long‐term established pastures with implications for the C and N cycles.

carbon and nitrogen cycles↗
DOE OSTI2026

GPM IMERG V07B and V06B: Evaluation Using Ground-Based Radar Observations and Application in Global Mesoscale Convective System Tracking

This study evaluates the latest Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG V07B) against its predecessor V06B, for studying mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Both versions are compared using ground-based radar and rain gauge data from five meteorologically diverse regions: the contiguous United States (including eastern coastlines), Amazon rainforest, central Argentina mountains, equatorial Indian Ocean, and northern Australia across multiple temporal (0.5–6 hours) and spatial scales (0.1°–0.25°). An updated global MCS tracking dataset is developed by integrating satellite-observed infrared brightness temperature with IMERG V07B. Comparation of IMERG against radar observations reveals that IMERG demonstrates better performance in capturing the probability distribution and quantitative contributions of rainfall (from no-rain to intense-rain conditions) over tropical oceans than over land, with marked improvements in IMERG V07B for heavy-to-intense rain (> 10 mm h-1). Over land, systematic biases persist: IMERG tends to overestimate light-to-moderate rain (1–10 mm h-1) while underestimating heavy-to-intense rain. Additionally, aggregating IMERG to coarser resolutions (3-hourly or 0.25°) improves consistency with radar observations, outperforming the 1-hourly/0.1° resolution. The new IMERG V07B-based global MCS dataset exhibits consistent statistical characteristics with the V06B-based dataset, despite lower mean rain rates and reduced heavy precipitation contributions. These findings offer valuable insights for utilizing IMERG V07B in global precipitation studies, MCS characterization, and model evaluation.

Zhang, Sihan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Radiocarbon of deep fine roots across four in lowland seasonal tropical forests in Panama

Objectives:Fine roots are key to ecosystem-scale nutrient, carbon (C), and water cycling, but our understanding of fine root traits variation within and among tropical forests, one of Earth’s most C-rich ecosystems, is limited. In 2022 and 2023, we aimed to explore differences in deep root characteristics among four lowland tropical forests in Panama, which vary in fertility and mean annual precipitation. We measured radiocarbon content (fraction modern [FM] and Δ14C) and δ13C of live fine roots at depths greater than 80 cm, up to 120 cm. The goal was to understand how deep root characteristics differ across these sites.Datasets included:The datasets provided include .csv and .xlsx files for radiocarbon content (fraction modern [FM] and Δ14C) and δ13C of live fine roots at depths greater than 80 cm, up to 120 cm collected from late 2017 to 2018 across four different forests. Additionally, a .kml file is provided with coordinates for all 32 plots included in the study across four forests (n = 8 plots per site). This dataset serves as baseline data before a throughfall exclusion experiment, Panama Rainforest Changes with Experimental Drying (PARCHED), was implemented. No special software is needed to open these files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Final DOE-ASR Report for the Project “Using LASSO to bridge the gap between model and observations and to learn about atmospheric convection”

Atmospheric convection spans a wide range of spatial and temporal scales and involves complex interactions with the surrounding dynamic and thermodynamic environment, particularly over tropical continental regions. These processes remain a major source of uncertainty in weather and climate models, including persistent biases in the diurnal cycle of convective precipitation that directly affect estimates of climate sensitivity. Addressing these challenges requires the combined use of high-resolution observations and cloud-resolving modeling frameworks. In this context, the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program’s Large-Eddy Simulation ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) activity provides a powerful platform that pairs comprehensive observations with numerical simulations to enable process-level understanding of atmospheric convection. Within this context, this Research and Development Partnership Pilot (RDPP) project was designed to initiate and expand DOE ARM/ASR research capacity at minority-serving institutions, while advancing scientific understanding of convective processes over the Amazon rainforest. Consistent with the RDPP mission, the project emphasized partnership development, training, and workforce capacity building alongside exploratory research activities. On the scientific side, the project produced two peer-reviewed journal articles, and one manuscript currently under review (see list in section 3.1). Together, these studies combine long-term ARM observations and cloud-resolving and convection-permitting modeling to investigate the environmental controls on the shallow-to-deep convective transition during the Amazon wet season. The results demonstrate the central role of early-day moisture preconditioning and large-scale dynamical forcing in regulating isolated deep convection, provide mechanistic insight into convective evolution, and establish physically informed modeling frameworks for future sensitivity experiments. These scientific outcomes are described in sections 2.1 to 2.3 and were disseminated in 8 conference presentations (see section 3.2) and 5 invited talks (see section 3.3), reflecting broad engagement with our community. Equally important, the project achieved its RDPP capacity-building objectives (see section 2.4). A sustained research partnership was established among the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC), Morgan State University (MSU), and Howard University (HU), and extended to include collaboration with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The project organized multiple multi-day training events focused on ARM data, LASSO simulations, and quantitative analysis methods, directly engaging students, postdoctoral researchers, and faculty across institutions. These activities broadened participation in ASR research and led to independent adoption of LASSO workflows by students beyond the immediate project team. Finally, the project successfully positioned the participating institutions to pursue future DOE research. Preliminary scientific results, coupled with strengthened partnerships and technical capacity, enabled the submission of follow-on proposals to DOE ASR funding opportunities. In this way, the project fulfilled the RDPP goal of seeding durable research capacity and laying the foundation for larger-scale, sustained engagement with DOE ARM and ASR programs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Soil fertility and drought interact to determine large variations in wood production for a hyperdominant Amazonian tree species

The productivity of the Amazon Rainforest is related to climate and soil fertility. However, the degrees to which these interactions influence multiannual to decadal variations in tree diameter growth are still poorly explored. To fill this gap, we used radiocarbon measurements to evaluate the variation in tree growth rates over the past decades in an important hyperdominant species, Eschweilera coriacea (Lecythidaceae), from six sites in the Brazilian Amazon that span a range of soil properties and climate. Using linear mixed-effects models, we show that temporal variations in mean annual diameter increment evaluated over a specific time period reflect interactions between soil fertility and the drought index (SPEI-Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index). Our results indicate that the growth response of trees to drought is strongly dependent on soil conditions, a facet of forest productivity that is still underexplored, and which has great potential for improving predictions of future tropical tree growth in the face of projected climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Amazonian fog harbors viable microbes

Fog formation over tropical forests remains poorly characterized, despite its potential role in bioaerosol dispersion and ecosystem processes. Here, we analyzed fog samples collected at the Amazon Tall Tower Observatory using flow cytometry and culture-based techniques to characterize viable microbial communities. Microbial cell concentrations varied over an order of magnitude across 13 fog events, reaching up to 8 × 104 cells per ml of fog water. Flow cytometry consistently detected metabolically active cells, while culturing and mass spectrometry-based identification yielded eight viable bacterial species and seven fungal taxa. The bacteria Serratia marcescens, Ralstonia pickettii and Sphingomonas paucimobilis exhibited seasonal variations in prevalence. The fungal species identified were primarily mesophilic saprophytes and endophytes, commonly associated with soil and plant surfaces. Our findings indicate that fog harbors viable microbes, including Serratia marcescens and Ralstonia pickettii, which may imply a relevance of fog for microbial dispersal, colonization and nutrient cycling in the Amazon rainforest.

Godoi, Ricardo H. (ORCID:0000000247744870)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Root biomass and traits across four lowland Panamanian forests from 0 - 1.2 m soil depths

Fine roots are key to ecosystem-scale nutrient, carbon (C), and water cycling, yet our understanding of fine root traits variation within and among tropical forests, one of Earth’s most C-rich ecosystems, is limited. We characterized root biomass, morphology, nutrient content, and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal (AMF) colonization in 10 cm increments to 1.2 m depth across four distinct lowland Panamanian forests. The datasets provided include a .xlsx file for fine root characteristics across 10 cm increment depths to 1.2 m collected from late 2017 to 2018 across four different forests. Root characteristics include live fine root biomass, dead fine root biomass, coarse root biomass, specific root length, root diameter, root tissue density, specific root area, arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi colonization, root chemistry (e.g., organic chemistry), root %N, root %C, root C/N ratio, and root radiocarbon content. This .xlsx file contain four tabs with 1) Dataset; 2) Metadata with information about each column in the dataset; 3) The sampling methods summarized; 4) Sites information. We also provided csv files for each of these tabs. Additionally, a .kml file is provided with coordinates for all 32 plots included in the study across four forests (n = 8 plots per site/forest). This dataset serves as baseline data before a throughfall exclusion experiment, Panama Rainforest Changes with Experimental Drying (PARCHED), was implemented. No special software is needed to open these files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2010

Projecting the Local Impacts of Climate Change on a Central American Montane Avian Community

Significant changes in the climates of Central America are expected over the next century. Lowland rainforests harbor high alpha diversity on local scales (<1 km2), yet montane landscapes often support higher beta diversity on 10-100 km2 scales. Climate change will likely disrupt the altitudinal zonation of montane communities that produces such landscape diversity. Projections of biotic response to climate change have often used broad-scale modelling of geographical ranges, but understanding likely impacts on population viability is also necessary for anticipating local and global extinctions. We model species abundances and estimate range shifts for birds in the Tilaran Mountains of Costa Rica, asking whether projected changes in temperature and rainfall could be sufficient to imperil high-elevation endemics and whether these variables will likely impact communities similarly. We find that nearly half of 77 forest bird species can be expected to decline in the next century. Almost half of species projected to decline are endemic to Central America, and seven of eight species projected to become locally extinct are endemic to the highlands of Costa Rica and Panam . Logistic-regression modelling of distributions and similarity in projections produced by temperature and rainfall models suggest that changes in both variables will be important. Although these projections are probably conservative because they do not explicitly incorporate biological or climate variable interactions, they provide a starting point for incorporating more realistic biological complexity into community-change models. Prudent conservation planning for tropical mountains should focus on regions with room for altitudinal reorganization of communities comprised of ecological specialists.

Gasner, Matthew R.↗