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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Multiphenomenology explosion monitoring (MultiPEM): a general framework for data interpretation and yield estimation

SUMMARY An underground nuclear explosion (UNE) couples mechanical energy into crustal rock, which propagates as seismic and acoustic waves. These different physical phenomena transport, by different pathways, to standoff detectors at varying distances. The transport pathways attenuate the original signal but in different ways. Enabled by correct statistical weighting, signal attenuation models can be used to combine these disparate sensor data to estimate the yield of an UNE. Contemporaneous statistical models, used in yield estimation, can be improved with an advanced partition of error for these physical signal propagation models. We present an advanced multivariate approach to error modelling of multiphenomenology physical signatures. In addition to measurement error, our error model represents physical model biases as random with a physics-based covariance structure. To illustrate this proposed framework, we demonstrate the estimation of explosion yield using openly available seismic and acoustic data from chemical single-point explosions.

Williams, Brian J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Review of Cavity Radius and Chimney Height Information for Underground Nuclear Tests at Nevada National Security Site

Underground nuclear explosions release an immense amount of thermal and mechanical energy that alter the geologic materials surrounding the “working point” (WP = underground location) of the detonation. Explosion effects produce mechanically and thermally altered zones such as the “cavity,” “chimney,” and “melt glass puddle,”as well as concentric zones of crushed, compressed, and fractured rock extending away from the cavity wall.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gas diffusion through variably-water-saturated zeolitic tuff: Implications for transport following a subsurface nuclear event

Noble gas transport through geologic media has important applications in the characterization of underground nuclear explosions (UNEs). Without accurate transport models, it is nearly impossible to distinguish between xenon signatures originating from civilian nuclear facilities and UNEs. Understanding xenon transport time through the earth is a key parameter for interpreting measured xenon isotopic ratios. One of the most challenging aspects of modeling gas transport time is accounting for the effect of variable water saturation of geological media. In this study, we utilize bench-scale laboratory experiments to characterize the diffusion of krypton, xenon, and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) through intact zeolitic tuff under different saturations. Here, we demonstrate that the water in rock cores with low partial saturation dramatically affects xenon transport time compared to that of krypton and SF6 by blocking sites in zeolitic tuff that preferentially adsorb xenon. This leads to breakthrough trends that are strongly influenced by the degree of the rock saturation. Xenon is especially susceptible to this phenomenon, a finding that is crucial to incorporate in subsurface gas transport models used for nuclear event identification. We also find that the breakthrough of SF6 diverges significantly from that of noble gases within our system. When developing field scale models, it is important to understand how the behavior of xenon deviates from chemical tracers used in the field, such as SF6 (Carrigan et al., 1996). These new insights demonstrate the critical need to consider the interplay between rock saturation and fission product sorption during transport modeling, and the importance of evaluating specific interactions between geomedia and gases of interest, which may differ from geomedia interactions with chemical tracers.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2025

Preferential adsorption of noble gases in zeolitic tuff with variable saturation: A modeling study of counter-intuitive diffusive-adsorptive behavior

Noble gas transport through geologic media has important applications in the prediction and characterization of measured gas signatures related to underground nuclear explosions (UNEs). Retarding processes such as adsorption can cause significant species fractionation of radionuclide gases, which has implications for measured and predicted signatures used to distinguish radioxenon originating from civilian nuclear facilities or from UNEs. Accounting for the effects of variable water saturation in geologic media on tracer transport is one of the most challenging aspects of modeling gas transport because there is no unifying relationship for the associated tortuosity changes between different rock types, and reactive transport processes such as adsorption that are affected by the presence of water likewise behave differently between gas species. In this study, we perform numerical diffusive-adsorptive transport simulations to estimate gas transport parameters associated with bench-scale laboratory diffusion cell experiments measuring breakthrough in zeolitic and non-zeolitic rocks for a gaseous mixture of xenon, krypton, and SF 6 at varying degrees of water saturation (S w ). Counter-intuitive transport behavior was observed in the zeolitic rock experiments whereby breakthrough concentrations were significantly higher when the core was partially saturated (S w = 17 %) than under dry (S w = 0 %) conditions. Breakthrough of xenon was especially retarded in the dry core – likely due to comparatively high affinity of xenon for zeolitic adsorption sites – and estimated effective diffusion coefficients for all gases were approximately an order of magnitude lower than what is predicted by porosity-tortuosity models. We propose the counter-intuitive behavior observed is because water infiltration of zeolite nanopores reduces both the adsorptive capacity of the rock and the tortuosity of connected flow paths. We developed a two-site competitive kinetic Langmuir adsorption reaction for the porous media transport simulator in order to constrain transport parameters within zeolitic tuff, where differential adsorption to zeolite and non-zeolite pores was observed. We determined that liquid saturation-dependent diffusive-adsorptive transport is affected by subtle and at times competing processes that are specific to different gases, which have a significant overall influence on effective transport parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Examining the potential for detecting simultaneous noble gas and aerosol samples in the international monitoring system radionuclide network

The purpose of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) is to establish a legally binding ban on nuclear weapon test explosions or any other nuclear explosions. The Preparatory Commission for the CTBT Organization (CTBTO PrepCom) is developing the International Monitoring System (IMS) that includes a global network of 80 stations to monitor for airborne radionuclides upon entry into force of the CTBT. All 80 radionuclide stations will monitor for particulate radionuclides and at least half of the stations will monitor for radioxenon. The airborne radionuclide monitoring is an important verification technology both for the detection of a radionuclide release and in the determination of whether the release event originates from a nuclear explosion as opposed to an industrial use of nuclear materials. Nuclear power plants and many medical isotope production facilities release radioxenon into the atmosphere. Low levels of a few particulate isotopes, such as iodine, may also be released. Detections of multiple isotopes are useful for screening the radionuclide samples for relevance to the Treaty. This paper examines the anticipated joint detections in the IMS of noble gas and particulate isotopes from underground nuclear explosions where breaches in the underground containment vents from low levels to up to 1% of the radionuclide inventory of the resulting fission products to the atmosphere. Detection probabilities are based on 844 simulated release events spaced out at 17 release locations and one year in time. Six different release (venting) scenarios, including two fractionated scenarios, were analyzed. When ranked by detection probability, 11 particulate isotopes and one noble gas isotope ( 133 Xe) appear in the top 20 isotopes for all six release scenarios. Using the 11 particulate isotopes and the one noble gas isotope, the IMS has nearly the same detection probability as when 45 particulate and 4 noble gas isotopes are used. Thus, a limited list of relevant radionuclides may be sufficient for treaty verification purposes. The probability that at least one particulate and at least one radioxenon isotope would be detected in the IMS from the release events ranged from 0.15 to 0.86 depending on the release scenario.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2023

Global Nuclear Explosion Discrimination Using a Convolutional Neural Network

Using P-wave seismograms, we trained a seismic source classifier using a Convolutional Neural Network. We trained for three classes: earthquake P-wave, underground nuclear explosion (UNE) P-wave, and noise. With the current absence of nuclear testing by countries that have signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, high quality seismic data from UNEs is limited. Even with limited training data, our model can accurately characterize most events recorded at regional and teleseismic distances, finding over 95% signals in the validation set. We applied the model on holdout datasets of the North Korean test explosions to evaluate the performance on unique region and station-source pairs, with promising results. Additionally, we tested on the Source Physics Experiment events to investigate the potential for chemical explosions to act as a surrogate for nuclear explosions. We anticipate that machine-learning models like our classifier system can have broad application for other seismic signals including volcanic and non-volcanic tremor, anomalous earthquakes, ice-quakes or landslide-quakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

3D orthorhombic earth model effects on seismic source characterization

Most earth materials are anisotropic with regard to seismic wave-speeds, especially materials such as shales, or where oriented fractures are present. However, the base assumption for many numerical simulations is to treat earth materials as isotropic media. This is done for simplicity, the apparent weakness of anisotropy in the far field, and the lack of well-characterized anisotropic material properties for input into numerical simulations. One approach for addressing the higher complexity of actual geologic regions is to model the material as an orthorhombic medium. We have developed an explicit time-domain, finite-difference (FD) algorithm for simulating three-dimensional (3D) elastic wave propagation in a heterogeneous orthorhombic medium. The objective of this research is to investigate the errors and biases that result from modeling a non-isotropic medium as an isotropic medium. This is done by computing “observed data” by using synthetic, anisotropic simulations with the assumption of an orthorhombic, anisotropic earth model. Green’s functions for an assumed isotropic earth model are computed and then used an inversion designed to estimate moment tensors with the “observed” data. One specific area of interest is how shear waves, which are introduced in an anisotropic model even for an isotropic explosion, affect the characterization of seismic sources when isotropic earth assumptions are made. This work is done in support of the modeling component of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE), a series of underground chemical explosions at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Low Yield Nuclear Monitoring Physics Experiment 1 – Integrated Data Acquisition System Design and Initial Observations

The report documents the design of the Integrated Data AcQuisition (IDAQ) system and observations recorded during the first in a series of underground chemical explosions conducted on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in southern Nevada. Experiments are funded as part of Low Yield Nuclear Monitoring (LYNM) research and development within the United States National Nuclear Security Administration NA-22 nuclear non-proliferation program. The series is part of the broader Physical Experiment 1 (PE1) being conducted in and around the P-tunnel facility on the NNSS. Each explosive experiment utilizes several tons of comp-B to generate signals recorded by a broad suite of instrumentation. The IDAQ serves as the backbone for all subsurface instrumentation providing precise time synchronization, remote control, data exfiltration and backup, along with recording several sensing modalities throughout the underground complex that includes ground motion, environmental conditions, and electromagnetic signals.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2020

Novel Photonuclear Methods to Produce an Argon-37 Standard

The mission of this research is to explore novel photonuclear-based pathways into the production of 37Ar. Above-background detection levels of 37Ar uniquely indicates the occurrence of an underground nuclear explosion, produced from fission neutrons interacting in the surrounding environment through the 40Ca(n,a)37Ar reaction. The half-life of 35 days allows on-site inspectors (OSI) adequate time following the nuclear event to detect 37Ar and verify compliance or defiance of non-proliferation treaties such as the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). An 37Ar standard would give OSI the ability to calibrate their detectors and measure detector efficiency allowing for the quantification of detected activity, give OSI authentic samples to test detectors in field exercises, and improve models predicting diffusion pathways of 37Ar through the underground environment.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using SF 6 and Xe to Monitor Gas Migration Through Explosion-Generated Fracture Networks

Here we describe a field study where tracer gas was injected into a subsurface cavity created by a small chemical explosion beneath the water table. The main objective of the study is to compare the migration of sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) and xenon (Xe) through an explosion-generated fracture network and to study the influence of ground water on gas transport. A mixture of tracer gases (50% of SF 6 and 50% of Xe) was injected on 31 October 2018 and gas sampling continued until 8 November 2018. We observe similar trends in SF 6 and Xe concentrations at four ground surface sampling sites. The changes in the SF 6 /Xe ratios with time show that more SF 6 than Xe is observed during the barometric pressure lows when the absolute measured concentrations are highest. Conversely, the ratio SF 6 /Xe is less than 1 during the high-pressure intervals when absolute measured concentrations are low. The results of the experiment suggest that during barometric pressure lows the tracer is migrating to the surface primarily by advective gas phase transport, whereas during barometric pressure highs, advection is suppressed and near-surface evaporation of interstitial pore fluid with tracer dissolved in it becomes more important. Thus, the results of the experiment show that the gas concentrations at the surface are controlled by the combined effects of the gas dissolution into pore water and the barometric pressure fluctuations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

High Throughput Argon-37 Field System

We report Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has developed a unique fieldable 37 Ar measurement system designed to measure 37 Ar activity concentrations from soil gas samples to detect above ground and underground nuclear explosions. The Argon-37 Field System is modular in design to accommodate both chemical processing and nuclear detection. The system can be packed into shipping crates and shipped to a location near where the sampling is taking place. The system can process six 2-m 3 whole-air samples in 24 hours and can measure the 37 Ar activity in each of the samples using six proportional counters. The proportional counters, designed and built at PNNL, are surrounded with both active and passive shielding to reduce background and can achieve a minimum detection concentration of 10 mBq/m 3 of 37 Ar in whole-air equivalent. The Argon-37 Field System has undergone extensive testing against rigorous requirements to assure the system meets the needs of the noble gas nuclear explosion monitoring community.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2019

Adsorption of Tracer Gases in Geological Media: Experimental Benchmarking

The interaction of xenon with containment barriers can play a crucial role in the detection of underground nuclear explosions. Independent field experiments and laboratory-derived models have observed depressed surface level xenon concentrations and subsequently predicted geological capture rates. This work sought to experimentally verify those predictions by analyzing xenon transport though a two-bulb diffusion apparatus adapted for the study of geologic media. Novel to this work is the timescale over which these experiments were carried out, allowing the system to reach equilibrium, rather than relying on numerical models to treat the equilibrium concentration of each gas as a fit coefficient.

Byers, Maggie↗
DOE OSTI2025

A flow-through gamma detection system for sub-surface radioxenon tracer measurements in LYNM PE1

A continuous flow-through, real-time radioxenon sensor array has been designed to monitor either 127 Xe or 133 Xe tracer gas as part of a series of underground chemical explosions in the Low-Yield Nuclear Monitoring (LYNM) Physics Experiment 1 (PE1). The sensors are pairs of shielded thallium-doped sodium iodide gamma-ray detectors that surround a gas measurement chamber. Each measurement chamber is connected to a sampling location in the geology surrounding the chemical explosion or in the access tunnel. The first experiment in the series, PE1 A, occurred in 2023 and the system quantified the 127 Xe tracer gas in the gas sampling lines for four weeks following the experiment execution. The array generated a set of radioxenon concentration time series with a 15-minute resolution that will be used to refine subsurface gas transport models.

Gamma-ray coincidence detection↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Experimental Method to Measure Gaseous Diffusivity in Tight and Partially Saturated Porous Media via Continuously Monitored Mass Spectrometry

Detection of radioxenon and radioargon produced by underground nuclear explosions is one of the primary methods by which the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test–Ban Treaty (CTBT) monitors for nuclear activities. However, transport of these noble gases to the surface via barometric pumping is a complex process relying on advective and diffusive processes in a fractured porous medium to bring detectable levels to the surface. To better understand this process, experimental measurements of noble gas and chemical surrogate diffusivity in relevant lithologies are necessary. However, measurement of noble gas diffusivity in tight or partially saturated porous media is challenging due to the transparent nature of noble gases, the lengthy diffusion times, and difficulty maintaining consistent water saturation. Here, the quasi-steady-state Ney–Armistead method is modified to accommodate continuous gas sampling via effusive flow to a mass spectrometer. An analytical solution accounting for the cumulative sampling losses and induced advective flow is then derived. Experimental results appear in good agreement with the proposed theory, suggesting the presence of retained groundwater reduces the effective diffusivity of the gas tracers by 10–1000 times. Finally, by using a mass spectrometer, the method described herein is applicable to a broad range of gas species and porous media.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of natural zeolites on field-scale geologic noble gas transport

Improving predictive models for noble gas transport through natural materials at the field-scale is an essential component of improving US nuclear monitoring capabilities. Several field-scale experiments with a gas transport component have been conducted at the Nevada National Security Site (Non-Proliferation Experiment, Underground Nuclear Explosion Signatures Experiment). However, the models associated with these experiments have not treated zeolite minerals as gas adsorbing phases. This is significant as zeolites are a common alteration mineral with a high abundance at these field sites and are shown here to significantly fractionate noble gases during field-scale transport. This fractionation and associated retardation can complicate gas transport predictions by reducing the signal-to-noise ratio to the detector (e.g. mass spectrometers or radiation detectors) enough to mask the signal or make the data difficult to interpret. Omitting adsorption-related retardation data of noble gases in predictive gas transport models therefore results in systematic errors in model predictions where zeolites are present.Herein is presented noble gas adsorption data collected on zeolitized and non-zeolitized tuff. Experimental results were obtained using a unique piezometric adsorption system designed and built for this study. Data collected were then related to pure-phase mineral analyses conducted on clinoptilolite, mordenite, and quartz. These results quantify the adsorption capacity of materials present in field-scale systems, enabling the modeling of low-permeability rocks as significant sorption reservoirs vital to bulk transport predictions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Background Concentrations of Argon-39 in Shallow Soil Gas

While radioisotopes of noble gases are known to be indicators of underground nuclear explosions (UNE), McIntyre et al. (2017) was the first to report the presence of 39Ar in shallow soil gas in association with a decades old UNE. While this finding hinted at the potential application of 39Ar to be used as an indicator of an UNE, doing so would also require an understanding of the natural concentrations of 39Ar present in soil gas. Without knowing the expected range and variability of naturally occurring concentrations of 39Ar, it is difficult to determine what measured concentrations would be indicative of an elevated concentration. This paper presents results from 16 soil gas samples and three atmospheric air samples collected from various locations across the western United States. Shallow soil gas samples were collected into self-contained underwater breathing apparatus (SCUBA) tanks using a custom-built soil gas sampling system and then processed and analyzed for 39Ar. The measured concentrations of 39Ar varied from atmospheric air concentrations to about 3.5 times atmospheric air concentrations. The variation in concentration was primarily attributed to the latitude the sample was collected at, which was consistent with previous work (Johnson et al. 2015). The results presented here represent the first measurements of natural background 39Ar concentrations in shallow soil gas. This data will be necessary if 39Ar is to be used as an indicator of UNE.

Fritz, Brad G.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deployment of portable, modular gas samplers as part of an atmospheric tracer experiment

Underground nuclear explosions release noble gases into the atmosphere that can be detected to support international monitoring efforts. Atmospheric transport models help predict the movement of these gases over long distances, but struggle to predict the movement in the atmosphere local to the release. A field experiment was designed to monitor the movement of 127 Xe within a 5-km radius. Four gas samplers were deployed as part of this experiment to collect atmospheric samples at various distances from the release point. In conclusion, these samples were then analyzed in a near-field lab using a NaI detector and in an off-site lab using gamma-gamma coincidence and beta-gamma coincidence counting.

Radioxenon↗