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At least 109 records · Page 6

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NASA NTRS2016

A Mathematical Model and Algorithm for Routing Air Traffic Under Weather Uncertainty

A central challenge in managing today's commercial en route air traffic is the task of routing the aircraft in the presence of adverse weather. Such weather can make regions of the airspace unusable, so all affected flights must be re-routed. Today this task is carried out by conference and negotiation between human air traffic controllers (ATC) responsible for the involved sectors of the airspace. One can argue that, in so doing, ATC try to solve an optimization problem without giving it a precise quantitative formulation. Such a formulation gives the mathematical machinery for constructing and verifying algorithms that are aimed at solving the problem. This paper contributes one such formulation and a corresponding algorithm. The algorithm addresses weather uncertainty and has closed form, which allows transparent analysis of correctness, realism, and computational costs.

uncertainty↗

NASA NTRS2005

Managing Lunar and Mars Mission Radiation Risks: Cancer Risks, Uncertainties, and Shielding Effectiveness - Part 1

This document addresses calculations of probability distribution functions (PDFs) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPEs). PDFs are used to test the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Monte-Carlo techniques are used to propagate uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are treated in the calculations. The cancer risk uncertainty is about four-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missins (<180 d), SPEs present the most significant risk, but one effectively mitigated by shielding. For long-duration (>180 d) lunar or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits. While shielding materials are marginally effective in reducing GCR cancer risks because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativisitc particles, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding cannot be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding. Therefore, improving our knowledge of space radiobiology to narrow uncertainties that lead to wide PDFs is the best approach to ensure radiation protection goals are met for space exploration.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Success Path Method: Introduction to the Success Path Method Software Tool©

As part of its commitment to advancing safety and reliability assessment methodologies, Argonne National Laboratory pioneered the use of an evaluation method called the Success Path Method (SPM) to improve risk management for offshore oil and gas operations. The development of the SPM at Argonne has been driven by the need to improve existing risk assessment methodologies by focusing on the steps necessary for success rather than failure modes alone. This is particularly important for industrial environments like offshore facilities that perform multiple functions under a continuously evolving set of operational conditions – such as water depth and temperature, currents, and weather conditions. In these dynamic environments, the traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) approach is far too complex as it focuses on what can go wrong – which comprises an infinite failure space that must be fully explored and understood. By shifting the focus to a finite space of success paths, the SPM enables operators and decision makers to prioritize a manageable number of steps that must go right to ensure success. Building on its five decades of experience in safety assessments for the nuclear industry, Argonne made major adaptations to existing risk assessment methods utilizing features similar to fault trees that are traditionally used in PRA to map all pathways in which the system can malfunction. In contrast, SPM identifies the components and processes that must function correctly to achieve specific outcomes – such as preventing the uncontrolled release of hydrocarbons during drilling operations. The SPM framework integrates equipment, procedures, software, processes, and human actions to ensure that physical barriers meet critical safety functions in dynamic operational conditions. This approach helps identify failure modes and improve operational risk management by narrowing the focus to key success elements, which in turn reduces uncertainty and helps users understand, manage, and respond to failures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Uncertainty in HPC Job Queue Time Predictions

High Performance Computing (HPC) has developed at an unprecedented pace in recent decades. This growth has demanded corresponding development in the area of HPC Operational Data Analytics (ODA), which encompasses a wide range of data analysis techniques, ML/AI efforts, tools, and visualizations. Published studies in ODA offer a variety of practical ways to inform HPC users, administrators, procurement managers, and other stakeholders. Uncertainty analysis, however, is rare in the related published literature. For instance, we identify only 1 out of 14 existing studies focused on job queue time prediction that investigates the uncertainty aspect of their proposed predictions. We recognize the utmost importance uncertainty quantification can have in such predictive analytics solutions, with consequences in how users interpret information they receive, and attempt to bridge this gap. With the goal of improving access to such insights, we develop a process for determining upper and lower bounds of the predicted queue times of a regression model at a specified confidence level. Our current research is focused on the uncertainty in predicting job queue times, yet our approach may be employed in predicting other metrics.

HPC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Aboveground Biomass Estimation Using NISAR Simulated ALOS-2 Time Series Data

Aboveground biomass (AGB) is a critical parameter to better understand the global carbon cycle and to develop sustainable forest management. However, a large uncertainty prevails. L-band SAR data have demonstrated strong potential to accurately retrieve AGB over low-biomass regions (<100 Mg ha-1). The upcoming NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar mission will collect data at L- and S-band over earth’s landmass with a repeat period of 12 days, allowing us to have ample data for monitoring biomass and its dynamics. One of the key science requirements of the mission is to produce annual AGB maps at 1-ha resolution with RMS accuracy of 20 Mg/ha for 80 percentage of area over low-biomass regions in Calibration/Validation sites. The NISAR biomass algorithm will generate AGB maps based on the parameterization of semi-empirical model along with NISAR time-series dual pol data (HH and HV). To calibrate and validate the model for mission requirements, the mission will use reference estimates of AGB produced from ground inventory plots and airborne LiDAR data collected over selected sites distributed across different global ecoregions. This paper presents the initial results of the calibration/validation of the NISAR AGB retrieval algorithm over the Lenoir Landing (LENO), Alabama, USA site using NISAR simulated ALOS-2 time series data. Five multi-temporal dual-pol HH and HV NISAR Simulated ALOS 2 data collections were used as input to assess the performance of the model. The model AGB retrieval results shows that the NISAR model was able to achieve RMS accuracy within 20 Mg/ha.

Ramachandran, Naveen [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, C↗

NASA NTRS2018

Modeling-Driven Damage Tolerant Design of Graphene Nanoplatelet/Carbon Fiber/Epoxy Hybrid Composite Panels for Full-Scale Aerospace Structures

The objective of this study is to design a new nano graphenecarbon fiberpolymer hybrid composite that can be used for the NASA SLS Composite Exploration Upper Stage (CEUS) forward skirt structure. The new material will improve the resistance to open-hole compression failure of the structure relative to traditional polymer fiber composites. The material is designed rapidly and with little cost using the Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) approach. Multiscale modeling and experiments are used to synergistically optimize the material design to yield improved properties and performance by controlling key processing parameters for manufacturing nano-enhanced materials. Specifically, the nanocomposite panel showed a 22 reduction in mass relative to the traditional composite panel, while both designs are equal in terms of ease of manufacture. This potential mass savings corresponds to an estimated 45 savings in materials and manufacturing costs. The multiscale ICME workflow developed for this project can be readily applied to the development of nano-enhanced composite materials and large aerospace structures. In addition, all key aspects of ICME were employed to complete this project including multiscale modeling, experimental characterization and visualization, data management, visualization, error and uncertainty quantification, and education. The results presented herein indicate a dramatic level of success, as well as the power and potential of ICME approach and multiscale modeling for composite materials.

computational mechanics↗

NASA NTRS2019

Sketch-To-Solution: An Exploration of Viscous CFD with Automatic Grids

Numerical simulation of the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations has become a critical tool for the design of aerospace vehicles. However, the issues that affect the grid convergence of three dimensional RANS solutions are not completely understood, as documented in the AIAA Drag Prediction Workshop series. Grid adaption methods have the potential for increasing the automation and discretization error control of RANS solutions to impact the aerospace design and certification process. The realization of the CFD Vision 2030 Study includes automated management of errors and uncertainties of physics-based, predictive modeling that can set the stage for ensuring a vehicle is in compliance with a regulation or specification by using analysis without demonstration in flight test (i.e., certification or qualification by analysis). For example, the Cart3D inviscid analysis package has automated Cartesian cut-cell gridding with output-based error control. Fueled by recent advances in the fields of anisotropic grid adaptation, error estimation, and geometry modeling, a similar work flow is explored for viscous CFD simulations; where a CFD application engineer provides geometry, boundary conditions, and flow parameters, and the sketch-to-solution process yields a CFD simulation through automatic, error-based, grid adaptation.

Kleb, William L.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring Unstructured Mesh Adaptation for Hybrid Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes/Large Eddy Simulation

Mesh adaptation methods for the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations are rapidly maturing and beginning to impact the design of aerospace vehicles. RANS turbulence modeling improvements have slowed and may stagnate. Wall-modeled large eddy simulation (LES) and hybrid RANS/LES (HRLES) may provide an improved modeling capability but require specialized expertise to construct appropriate meshes and are considered be too ex-pensive for routine practical use. The realization of the CFD Vision 2030 Study includes improving geometry linkage, mesh generation/adaptation, and turbulence modeling/resolving methods for automated management of errors and uncertainties of physics-based, predictive modeling that can set the stage for ensuring a vehicle is in compliance with a regulation or specification (i.e., certification or qualification by analysis). An exploration of mesh adaptation for HRLES is performed to document synergies and challenges between mesh adaptation and HRLES. Vortex breakdown over a delta wing is examined to show the improvement of HRLES over RANS turbulence modeling approaches. A high lift configuration is shown to demonstrate complex geometry capability. Research and development opportunities are identified to advocate for continuing investments that may allow HRLES to enter routine practical use as a tool for aerospace vehicle analysis and design.

Michael A Park↗

NASA NTRS2011

Historic Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Mato Grosso, Brazil: 1. Source Data Uncertainties

Historic carbon emissions are an important foundation for proposed efforts to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation and enhance forest carbon stocks through conservation and sustainable forest management (REDD+). The level of uncertainty in historic carbon emissions estimates is also critical for REDD+, since high uncertainties could limit climate benefits from mitigation actions. Here, we analyzed source data uncertainties based on the range of available deforestation, forest degradation, and forest carbon stock estimates for the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 1990-2008. Results: Deforestation estimates showed good agreement for multi-year trends of increasing and decreasing deforestation during the study period. However, annual deforestation rates differed by >20% in more than half of the years between 1997-2008, even for products based on similar input data. Tier 2 estimates of average forest carbon stocks varied between 99-192 Mg C/ha, with greatest differences in northwest Mato Grosso. Carbon stocks in deforested areas increased over the study period, yet this increasing trend in deforested biomass was smaller than the difference among carbon stock datasets for these areas. Conclusions: Patterns of spatial and temporal disagreement among available data products provide a roadmap for future efforts to reduce source data uncertainties for estimates of historic forest carbon emissions. Specifically, regions with large discrepancies in available estimates of both deforestation and forest carbon stocks are priority areas for evaluating and improving existing estimates. Full carbon accounting for REDD+ will also require filling data gaps, including forest degradation and secondary forest, with annual data on all forest transitions.

Morton, Douglas C.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Marine Energy Technology Development Risk Management Framework

Over the past decades, the global marine energy industry has suffered a number of serious technological and commercial setbacks. To help reduce the risks of industry failures and advance the development of new technologies, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed a Marine Energy Risk Management Framework in 2015, with this revision published in 2024. This risk management framework shall be utilized on all DOE Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO) projects that require system testing in the open water. By addressing uncertainties, the Marine Energy Risk Management Framework increases the likelihood of successful development of marine energy converter technology. It covers projects of any technology readiness level technology performance level (TPL) and all risk types (e.g. technological risk, regulatory risk, commercial risk) over the development cycle. This risk framework is not a substitute for other risk management procedures that may be required for marine operations, such as installations at sea, hoisting and rigging, safe diver operations, and other safety requirements. This risk framework is intended to meet DOE's risk management expectations for marine energy technology research and development efforts from WPTO. It also provides an overview of other relevant risk management tools and documentation.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

NASA NTRS2000

Reliability of Fault Tolerant Control Systems

This paper reports Part II of a two part effort that is intended to delineate the relationship between reliability and fault tolerant control in a quantitative manner. Reliability properties peculiar to fault-tolerant control systems are emphasized, such as the presence of analytic redundancy in high proportion, the dependence of failures on control performance, and high risks associated with decisions in redundancy management due to multiple sources of uncertainties and sometimes large processing requirements. As a consequence, coverage of failures through redundancy management can be severely limited. The paper proposes to formulate the fault tolerant control problem as an optimization problem that maximizes coverage of failures through redundancy management. Coverage modeling is attempted in a way that captures its dependence on the control performance and on the diagnostic resolution. Under the proposed redundancy management policy, it is shown that an enhanced overall system reliability can be achieved with a control law of a superior robustness, with an estimator of a higher resolution, and with a control performance requirement of a lesser stringency.

Wu, N. Eva↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Initial Validation of a Simulation System for Studying Interoperability in Future Air Traffic Management Systems

Future air traffic management systems will need to accommodate large numbers of increasingly diverse air vehicles with different operating paradigms. To support this trend, they will digitally share copious amounts of information via a common communication architecture. Operators will deploy programs that create and negotiate flight plans via the architecture’s communication protocols. These programs will autonomously make decisions that must be arbitrated by the architecture and robust to uncertainty. To study interoperability in air traffic management, a new airspace simulation system was composed by integrating a legacy airspace simulation, an air traffic control model, and a new research communication architecture. It was used to evaluate air traffic management concepts by adapting it to handle congested arrival traffic at Newark Liberty International Airport and executing simulations. Results demonstrated the ability of the simulation system to model in detail strategic traffic flow management, predeparture flight planning, and air traffic control working in concert. Subsequent studies can use the simulation system to study interoperability, autonomy, digital communication, and uncertainty in future air traffic management systems.

aircraft scheduling,traffic flow management,autono↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Initial Validation of a Simulation System for Studying Interoperability in Future Air Traffic Management Systems

air traffic control↗

NASA NTRS2021

Initial Validation of a Simulation System for Studying Interoperability in Future Air Traffic Management Systems

air traffic control↗

NASA NTRS2014

Decomposition Technique for Remaining Useful Life Prediction

The prognostic tool disclosed here decomposes the problem of estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of a component or sub-system into two separate regression problems: the feature-to-damage mapping and the operational conditions-to-damage-rate mapping. These maps are initially generated in off-line mode. One or more regression algorithms are used to generate each of these maps from measurements (and features derived from these), operational conditions, and ground truth information. This decomposition technique allows for the explicit quantification and management of different sources of uncertainty present in the process. Next, the maps are used in an on-line mode where run-time data (sensor measurements and operational conditions) are used in conjunction with the maps generated in off-line mode to estimate both current damage state as well as future damage accumulation. Remaining life is computed by subtracting the instance when the extrapolated damage reaches the failure threshold from the instance when the prediction is made.

Saha, Bhaskar↗

NASA NTRS2018

Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration - 3 (ATD-3) Dynamic Weather Routes Domestic En Route Concept of Operations Synopsis Version 1.0

NASA conducted a survey in 2015 of stakeholders in industry, flight operators, and others to collect data on the most pressing air traffic management (ATM) issues impacting en route operations. Weather related delays and interruptions were identified as the most significant and costly problem impacting en route operations in today's system. Additionally, future traffic demands will place greater demands on the FAA's air traffic control system, necessitate a more efficient and integrated traffic management system and provide controller tools to leverage human productivity. Consequently, NASA is assembling a suite of integrated ground and aircraft-based technologies and decision-making aids under the Airspace Technology Demonstrations 3 (ATD-3) project to continuously search for more efficient weather-avoidance routes and to rapidly respond to weather changes and associated traffic management initiatives. These route efficiency enhancements are targeted at en route airspace and will enable continued use of en route and arrival metering in the presence of weather. NASA's Dynamic Weather Routes (DWR) concept represents a subset of those technologies and focuses primarily on the cruise phase of flight. It leverages existing air traffic weather, airspace, and traffic data, as well as improvements in navigation, surveillance, communication and digital network technologies, and builds upon existing ATM automation to address the shortcomings associated with strategic traffic flow management initiatives and weather forecasting uncertainties. The potential benefits in the form of time, fuel, and cost savings are significant. This concept of operations synopsis provides a detailed description of DWR, its potential benefits and notional implementation paths.

DWR↗

NASA NTRS2018

Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration - 3 (ATD-3) Multi-Flight Common Route (MFCR) Concept of Operations Version 1.0

NASA's Multi Flight Common Route (MFCR) automation represents one element of those technologies focusing primarily on delay recovery in the en route phase of flight. Delay recovery is an attenuation of flight-time delay, accomplished by periodically revising weather-avoidance routing as the convective weather system evolves. MFCR is intended for use by Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs) in Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCCs, or Centers) and traffic management specialists (TMSs) in the Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC). MFCR leverages existing weather, airspace, and traffic data, as well as improvements in navigation, surveillance, communication, and digital information technologies, to build on existing ATM automation and address some of the shortcomings associated with strategic traffic flow management initiatives and weather forecasting uncertainties. These capabilities provide significant potential benefits in the form of time, fuel, and cost savings. The concept of operations described in this document describes MFCR functionality as delivered by NASA to the FAA in December 2017, including a list of potential enhancements that may be realized when the system is fielded.

conops↗

DOE OSTI2025

Are better combinations of DERs more profitable?: Combinatorial optimization for aggregation of DERs in wholesale electricity markets

Recently, regulatory changes in various countries have enabled the participation of small-scale distributed energy resources (DERs) aggregated in virtual power plants (VPPs) in wholesale electricity markets. The inherent uncertainty and variability of resources comprising VPPs can lead to imbalances between forecasted and metered outputs, potentially resulting in the deficient settlement of generation under imbalance settlement rules. To address this challenge, it is essential to manage variability in the planning phase and uncertainty in the operation phase. Most current research focuses on managing forecasting errors in the operational phase, with insufficient attention given to the planning phase. Here, to bridge this gap, this paper proposes an optimal combination strategy for DERs to maximize the market participation revenue of VPPs by proactively managing variability in the planning phase. To estimate the expected revenue, we conducted analyses for homogeneous and heterogeneous DERs using Monte Carlo simulations and genetic algorithms. Remarkably, the proposed method demonstrated approximately 8 % higher revenue compared to the neighboring group case when considering diversity in DER set configuration with equal proportions of photovoltaics and wind.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗